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JeffBezos_2003-_未来的网络创新_
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| When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier. |
把弹性和技术放在一起考虑,是非常容易的 |
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resilience:n.恢复力;弹力;顺应力; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
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| You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know, who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff , and, of course, with technology it never is. |
我知道大家会见到其他一些演讲者 他们会讨论骨折 当然,在技术领域,永远不会。 |
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stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
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| So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient . |
相对而言,技术很容易适应 |
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comparatively:adv.比较地;相当地; resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的;
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| If we look at what happened on the Internet -- with such an incredible last half a dozen years that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it. |
如果我们看一看在过去的六年里 因特网上所发生的不可思议的一切, 那就会觉得 哪怕是给这一切找个简单恰当的类比也是很难的。 |
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incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的; analogy:n.类比;类推;类似;
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| A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things and what we're supposed to expect about the future depends on how we bucket things and how we categorize them. |
很多时候,我们如何做决定,如何对事物做反应 如何展望未来 都决定于我们储存事物的方式 以及事物的分类方法 |
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supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) react:v.起反应;回应;(对食物等)有不良反应,过敏;起化学反应; bucket:n.大桶状物; v.拼命划桨; categorize:vt.分类;
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| And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush . |
因此,我认为如果可以找一个形象的比喻来描述刚刚经历的网络泡沫 “淘金热”是首选 |
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tempting:adj.吸引人的;诱惑人的;v.引诱;(tempt的现在分词); gold rush:n.淘金热;
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| It's easy to think of this analogy as very different from some of the other things you might pick. |
这个类比很容易理解 其他的比喻就显得没有这么形象 |
| For one thing , both are very real. |
首先,网络泡沫和淘金热都是真实发生过的 |
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For one thing:首先;一则;
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| In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million worth of gold out of California. It was very real. |
在1849年的淘金潮中,人们从加州淘到价值7亿美元的黄金 这可是千真万确的 |
| The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to communicate with each other. It's a big deal . |
同时互联网也是完全真实的 它提供了一条真正的供人们进行交流的途径,这很了不起 |
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a big deal:na.要人;重要的事;
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| Huge boom . Huge boom . Huge bust . Huge bust . |
巨大的繁荣,巨大的繁荣,急剧的衰败,急剧的衰败 |
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boom:n.繁荣;吊杆;v.激增;繁荣昌盛;轰鸣;轰响;adj.(美)猛涨起来的; bust:n.(石或金属的)半身像; v.打破; adj.破碎;
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| You keep going, and both things are lots of hype . |
接着想,二者都伴有大量夸张的宣传 |
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hype:n.大肆宣传;皮下注射;vt.大肆宣传;使…兴奋;
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| I don't have to remind you of all the hype that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com. |
不用我说,大家都还记得那些有关网络的炒作吧 比如GetRich.com （1999年9月时代周刊以GetRich.com为题,以长达20页的封面故事描绘网络诱人前景） |
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remind:v.提醒;使想起; involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词)
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| But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold." |
我们再回头看淘金热,简直是一样的情况。 “金子,金子,金子” |
| Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal. |
在波特兰号蒸汽船上的68个暴发户,成堆的黄金！ |
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Steamer:n.轮船;汽船;蒸锅;蒸笼; Stacks:n.堆叠;[图情]书库(stack的复数);进程堆栈应用;
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| Some have five thousand. Many have more. |
有的人有五千,其他人拥有的更多 |
| A few bring out $100,000 each. |
少数一些人就能淘到10万美元 |
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bring out:出版,生产;使显示;说出;
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| People would get very excited about this when they read these articles. |
人们读到这样的文章就会变得非常兴奋 |
| The Eldorado of the United States of America . |
美利坚合众国之黄金城 |
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Eldorado:n.理想黄金国;富庶之乡; United States of America:un.美利坚合众国;
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| The discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California. |
加州发现取之不尽的金矿 |
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inexhaustible:adj.用不完的;不知疲倦的;
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| The parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly. |
淘金热和网络热的相似之处仍然非常明显 |
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parallels:n.平行线; v.使…成平行;
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| So, many people left what they were doing. |
很人就抛下自己的工作不做了 |
| And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years. |
后来淘金热就这样持续了好多年 |
| People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news, they thought, "Ah, this isn't real." |
东海岸的人,在1849年,当他们刚开始听说这事的时候 都寻思着,“不是真的吧。” |
| But they keep hearing about people getting rich, and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real. |
可他们不断地听说有人暴富了 直到1850年仍然有这种消息传来,可他们还不信 |
| By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are. |
到差不多1852年,他们就觉得,“我是不是世上最傻的人, 怎么没早点儿冲到加州去呢？” 开始觉得自己真是晚了 |
| These are community affairs, by the way . |
当然,这些其实是地区性的事务 |
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community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; by the way:顺便说一下;
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| Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams of 10 or 20 people would caravan across the United States, and they would form companies. |
于是,东海岸当地的社区团体联合到一起 组织10到20人的商队横跨美国 并且,他们会组建公司（去淘金） |
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communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数) get together:聚会 caravan:n.(可供居住的)拖车,大篷车; vi.乘拖车度假;
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| These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what , if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing, no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold. |
这些人显然依靠的不是个人力量 但不论是律师或银行家,他们丢下自己的工作 不管他们有什么技能,都跑去淘金子 |
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typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地; solitary:adj.孤独的;独居的;n.独居者;隐士; no matter what:不管什么…;
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| This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole , he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route . |
左边的这个人,Richard Beverley Cole医生 他住在费城,他走的是巴拿马航线 |
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Cole:n.油菜; Philadelphia:n.费城(美国宾夕法尼亚州东南部港市); route:n.路线;路途;固定线路;途径;v.按某路线发送;
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| They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus , and then take another ship north. |
他们乘船直下到达巴拿马,跨过巴拿马地峡 然后换乘另一只船北上 |
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isthmus:n.地峡;管峡;
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| This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California. |
这个Toland医生是乘带篷的大马车去的加州 |
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covered wagon:n.(尤指旧时用于横跨北美大陆到西部的)大篷马车;
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| This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices. |
他们俩也有相似之处,都是医生,并放弃了从医 |
| These are both very successful -- a physician in one case; a surgeon in the other. |
他们俩都很成功（医术高明）,一个在内科方面 一个在外科方面 |
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physician:n.[医]医师;内科医师; surgeon:n.外科医生;
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| Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com. |
我们看网络上也有这样的例子,出了个 DrKoop.com 网站 |
| (Laughter) |
(笑声)（由Koop医生成立于1997年的医疗健康网站DrKoop.com在网络泡沫时曾一度辉煌,后破产转手） |
| In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship. |
淘金热中,人们夸张得从船上跳下来 |
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literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
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| The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak because ships would get there and the crews would abandon to go search for gold. |
在旧金山的港口,最多的时候聚集了600艘船 因为当船到了那里,船员们都不顾一切的跳下船 的去淘金了 |
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harbor:n.港口;港湾;(比喻)避难所;[军]坦克掩蔽场;v.停泊;包含;隐匿;怀抱(恶意); clogged:v.(使)阻塞,堵塞;(clog的过去分词和过去式) peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的; abandon:n.狂热;放任;v.遗弃;放弃;
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| So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships. |
那里当时真的就只剩600个船长和600艘船 |
| They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere. |
后来那些船都变成了宾馆,因为没有船员,这些船哪里也去不了 |
| You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever. |
如果,我们把投身网络公司的热情,和曾经有过的淘金热相比较 |
| And you saw some of the excesses that the dot com fever created and the same thing happened. |
你就能发现这一切有点过头了 当互联网热发起时,同样的事情发生了 |
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excesses:n.过份荒淫的行为; v.暂不聘任;
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| The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers. |
旧金山的兵营有1300士兵 |
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fort:n.堡垒;要塞;(美)边界贸易站;v.设要塞保卫;构筑要塞;
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| Half of them deserted to go look for gold. |
一半人擅离职守去淘金了 |
| And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half because they were afraid they wouldn't come back. |
上级不敢让剩下的一半人去找他们 因为担心这些士兵也会一去不返 |
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other half:n.另一半(指配偶或男友,女友);
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| (Laughter) |
(笑声) |
| And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put: "The struggle between right and $6 a month and wrong and $75 a day is a rather severe one." |
其中一个士兵在家信中这样写道: 我在这样的矛盾中挣扎,一边是去做正确的事情,每月6美元 另一边是做逃兵,每天75美元 |
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severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
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| They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate. |
淘金热的消耗非常严重,非常严重。 |
| This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail . |
这是来自淘金热门地区Klondike的一张图片,上面的路被称之为“白通径” |
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Klondike:n.克朗代克地区(加拿大育空河流域的黄金产地); Trail:v.(被)拖,拉;疲惫地走,磨蹭;落后,失败;n.痕迹;踪迹;小路;路线;
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| They loaded up their mules and their horses. |
人们把他们的骡子和马装好 |
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mules:n.骡子;越境运毒者;(室内使用的)拖鞋;(mule的复数)
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| And they didn't plan right. |
但他们没有计划好 |
| And they didn't know how far they would have to go, and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff. |
他们不知道他们要走多远 他们给骡子和马装了太多的东西 |
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overloaded:adj.超载的;超负荷的;超重的;v.使超载;使负担过重(overload的过去分词);
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| In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died before they could get where they were going. |
结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中 结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中 |
| It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail." |
那条路后来被称为“亡马之路” |
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renamed:v.重新命名;给…改名;(rename的过去分词和过去式)
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| And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time: "Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way, sometimes in bunches under the cliffs , |
加拿大内政部长这样写道: 路的两边躺满了马的尸体 在悬崖下也有遍地的尸首 |
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Minister:n.部长;大臣;牧师;vi.执行牧师职务;辅助或伺候某人; Interior:n.内部;内陆;内地;里面;adj.内部的;里面的; bunches:束; cliffs:n.(常指海洋边的)悬崖,峭壁;(cliff的复数)
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| with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above, sometimes in tangled masses , filling the mud holes and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march, |
上面甚至还有马鞍和这些马坠崖前所驮的杂物 有时,在杂乱的人群中,这些马就在那些泥洞里寻找落脚点 在遥远的行程中背负着大量的货物 |
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saddles:n.鞍; v.给马装鞍具; tangled:adj.缠结的; v.使缠结; (tangle的过去分词和过去式) masses:n.民众;大量(mass的复数);包块;v.集中;聚集(mass的三单形式); furnishing:v.布置家具;向(某人/某事物)供应,提供;(furnish的现在分词)
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| often, I regret to say, exhausted , but still alive, a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade . |
很多时候,我不得不说,太累了,但是要活下去 一个被我们忽略的事实就是,在骡马队伍之中 有着那么多的悲惨的人 |
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exhausted:adj.筋疲力尽的; v.使筋疲力尽; (exhaust的过去分词和过去式) unaware:adj.不知道的,无意的;未察觉到的;adv.意外地;不知不觉地; miserable:adj.悲惨的;痛苦的;卑鄙的; wretches:n.不幸的人;可怜的人;坏蛋;无赖;(wretch的复数) beneath:prep.在…之下;adv.在下方; hooves:n.蹄(hoof的复数);蹄脚;v.用蹄踢;步行(hoof的三单形式); cavalcade:n.行列,队伍;骑兵队;
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| The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere account for the myriads of ravens along the road. |
遍地都是背负重担的动物,它们露出空洞的眼神 无数的乌鸦遍布路的两边 |
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eyeless:adj.盲目的;无眼的;瞎的; sockets:n.[电]插座; v.把…装入托座; account for:对…负有责任;对…做出解释;说明…的原因;导致;(比例)占; myriads:n.无数;(诗)万;adj.无数的;众多方面的;(myriads是myriad的复数); ravens:n.乌鸦(raven的复数);低质煤;
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| The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to, the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described ." |
这条路见证的不人道 那些心碎和痛苦的经历,是难以想象的 更是难以用文字描述的 |
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inhumanity:n.不人道,无人性;残暴; witness:n.证人;目击者;证据;v.目击;证明;为…作证; heartbreak:n.心碎;伤心事; undergone:v.经历(undergo的过去分词); described:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的过去分词和过去式)
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| And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that, we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations. |
虽然没有那些与之俱来的气味 但是互联网上发生着同样的事情:极坏的亏损额计算 |
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accompanied:v.陪同;陪伴;与…同时发生;为…伴奏;(accompany的过去式和过去分词)
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| I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it. |
我给大家计算其中的一个,你们就会发现我所说的是对的 |
| This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000. |
这是一个在2000年超级杯赛上被播放的商业广告 |
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commercial:adj.贸易的;商业的;赢利的;以获利为目的的;n.(电台或电视播放的)广告; Super Bowl:n.(美国)超级碗橄榄球赛;
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| (Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations . Clerk: But we do. |
（视频）一号新娘:你说你有很多可选择的邀请。职员:的确是这样的 |
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Bride:n.新娘; selection:n.选择;选拔;挑选;被挑选的人(或物); invitations:n.邀请;获得邀请;请帖;(invitation的复数)
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| Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation? |
二号新娘:那为什么她会有我的邀请函？ |
| Announcer : What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man. |
讲解:一些小事将会导致什么...三号新娘:你给我过来,混蛋！ |
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Announcer:n.[广播]广播员;宣告者;
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| Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife? |
讲解:对你来说可能很重要。一号丈夫:那是你妻子吗？ |
| Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day. |
二号丈夫:15分钟后就是了。讲解:毕竟,这是你的好日子 |
| OurBeginning.com. Life's an event, announce it to the world. |
OurBeginning.com网站,生活是件大事,把它向全世界公布 |
| Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for. |
很难指出这个广告的目的 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| But they spent three and a half million dollars in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad. |
但是,这家公司花费了350万美元 在2000年的超级杯上播出这个广告 |
| Even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue . |
即便是,在当时,该公司每年的收入只有100万美元 |
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annual:n.年报;年鉴;年刊;adj.每年的;年度的;一年的; revenue:n.收益;营业额;税务署;
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| Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge , and I think rather severely . |
从这件事情上看,我们把互联网热和淘金热的类比就产生了分歧 而且分歧还很严重 |
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diverge:vi.分歧;偏离;分叉;离题;vt.使偏离;使分叉; severely:adv.严重地;严格地,严厉地;纯朴地;
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| And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over. |
在淘金热中,当它结束的时候,一切都结束了 |
| Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson at the present time who feel keenly disappointed. |
这里有一个家伙写道:“在道森,当时 有很多人深感失望。 |
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Dawson:n.道森(加拿大西北部城市); keenly:adv.敏锐地;强烈地;锐利地;
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| They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property, spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch have reached the coveted goal only to discover the fact that there is nothing here for them." |
他们行程数千里,历经万险,冒着生命危险,不顾健康和财富 花费了一个人所能忍受的数个月的时间 整个过程中,他们心里一直抱着那个美好的期望 但是,等他们真正到达的时候 却发现什么也没有。” |
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perilous:adj.危险的,冒险的; arduous:adj.努力的;费力的;险峻的; perform:v.表演;执行;履行;演出;工作,运转(好/不好); expectations:n.预料;预期;期待;希望;指望;(expectation的复数) pitch:v.抛:用力扔:针对:触地:n.场地:程度:力度:推销的话:纵摇: coveted:adj.人人向往的;v.渴望;贪求(covet的过去分词和过去式)
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| And that was, of course, the very common story. |
当然,这只是一个很普通的故事 |
| Because when you take out that last piece of gold -- and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush -- the entire American river region , within two years -- |
因为,当你把最后一块黄金采掘出来的时候 这个过程是非常短暂的。我的意思是,如果你回顾1849年的淘金热—— 整个美洲地区的河流,在不到两年的时间里—— |
|
incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; region:n.地区;范围;部位;
|
| every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies who used more sophisticated mining technologies started to take gold out of there. |
人们翻遍了每一块石头。这样之后,只有那些大型的公司 用先进的开采技术 在那里进行黄金的开采 |
|
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数);
|
| So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic and that analogy is the electric industry. |
另外,还有一个好一点的类比,会让你感觉很乐观 那就是电气制造工业 |
|
optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的;
|
| And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry. |
电气制造工业和互联网有很多的相似之处 |
|
similarities:n.相仿性;类似性;相像处;(similarity的复数)
|
| With the electric industry you actually have to -- one of them is that they're both sort of thin, horizontal , enabling layers that go across lots of different industries. |
电气制造工业涉及的范围很广 ——当然,它和互联网一样,根基都不是很深 但是,它所涉及的不同的产业是很多的 |
|
horizontal:n.水平线;水平面;横线;水平位置;adj.水平的;与地面平行的;横的; enabling:adj.授权的;v.使能够;授权给(enable的现在分词); layers:n.层;表层;层次;阶层;v.把…分层堆放;(layer的第三人称单数和复数)
|
| It's not a specific thing. |
这不是一个具体的事情 |
|
specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
|
| But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down. |
但是电力的使用范围很广阔,因此你必须把它缩小了排序 |
|
electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪; narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分;
|
| You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power. |
它可以作为一种极佳的传输能量的方法 |
|
transmitting:v.传送;输送;发射;传播;传染;(transmit的现在分词)
|
| It's an incredible means of coordinating , in a very fine-grained way, information flows. |
甚至可以促进合作 以一种非常精细的方式,包括信息流 |
|
coordinating:v.使协调;使相配合;搭配,协调;(coordinate的现在分词) fine-grained:adj.细粒的;有细密纹理的;
|
| There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity. |
关于电力,有一大堆的趣事 |
|
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆;
|
| And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on is sort of the golden age of appliances . |
我所关注的电力革命 只是那些“黄金时代”中的器械装置 |
|
revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环; golden age:n.鼎盛时期; appliances:n.(家用)电器,器具;(appliance的复数)
|
| The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb . |
让整个世界为之一震的、最为显著的器械就是电灯泡了 |
|
light bulb:n.灯泡;
|
| So the light bulb is what wired the world. |
把世界用电线连接起来的就是电灯泡 |
| And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world. |
当人们架接电线的时候,他们没有想到其他的用电器 |
| They were really thinking about -- they weren't putting electricity into the home. |
在当时,人们关注的只是—— 人们不认为是把电线扯到家里（没有把电力引进自己家中） |
| They were putting lighting into the home. |
而是把照明装置安到家中 |
| And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time. |
人们的确得到并使用了电力——但这花费了很长时间 |
| This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out. |
中间花费了——正如你所期望的——巨大的资本去构建这个供电网络 |
| All the streets had to be torn up. |
所有的街道被重新休整了一番 |
| This is work going on down in lower Manhattan where they built some of the first electric power generating stations. |
这幅图片显示的是在下曼哈顿 施工人员正在建设第一座发电站 |
|
generating:v.产生;引起;(generate的现在分词)
|
| And they're tearing up all the streets. |
他们挖开所有的街道 |
| The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric, which became General Electric, paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive. |
爱迪生电气公司,后来更名为爱迪生通用电气公司 后来成为现在的通用电气 出资进行道路的挖掘,这是非常昂贵的 |
| But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web. |
但,这还不是和网络最相似的地方 |
| Because, remember, the Web got to stand on top of all this heavy infrastructure that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network. |
因为,网络是基于 所有的那些大型的基础设施之上的 而当时这些基础设施主要服务于长距离的电话网络 |
|
infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; long-distance:adj.[通信][交]长途的;长距离的;vt.打长途电话给;adv.通过长途电话;
|
| So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure -- |
因此,所有的电缆和那些重型的基础设施—— |
|
cabling:n.布线; v.用锚链系住;
|
| I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994, when it was growing 2,300% a year. |
我刚刚讲的,就是1994年网络爆炸式发展中的一部分 其年增长率一度达到2300% |
|
explosive:n.炸药;爆炸物;adj.易爆炸的;可能引起爆炸的;易爆发的;可能引起冲动的;
|
| How could it grow at 2,300% a year in 1994 when people weren't really investing in the Web? |
在1994年,网络产业是怎么做到一年增长2300%, 并且没有外部的投资？ |
|
investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词)
|
| Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down. |
其实,就是因为这些重型、大型的基础设施早已经铺设好了 |
| So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure, and then home appliances started coming into being. |
电灯的普及导致了重型设备的投入 在此基础上家用电器开始遍地生花 |
| And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan -- this was the 1890 electric fan. |
当然,这个数量（家用电器）非常庞大的。第一件家用电器是电风扇—— 这个照片就是1890年发明的电风扇 |
|
electric fan:n.[电]电扇;
|
| And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted -- it depends how you want to measure it -- but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time. |
这些设备,这些设备、器械的繁荣时期持续了—— 当然这取决于你怎么衡量它—— 大约有40到60年的样子。这是一段很长的时期 |
| It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success. |
大约开始于1890年,并且电风扇是一个巨大的成功 |
| The electric iron , also very big. |
电熨斗,也非常成功 |
|
electric iron:n.熨斗;
|
| By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit . |
顺便说一下,这也是有关石棉诉讼的开端（石棉可用作保温隔热材料） |
|
asbestos:n.石棉;adj.石棉的; lawsuit:n.诉讼;[法]官司;诉讼案件;
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| There's asbestos under that handle there. |
在那个把手下有石棉物质 |
|
handle:n.[建]把手;柄;手感;口实;v.处理;操作;运用;买卖;触摸;
|
| This is the first vacuum cleaner , the 1905 Skinner Vacuum, from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car. |
这是第一台吸尘器,1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器 它是Hoover公司制造的,重达92磅 需要两个人进行操作,并且其造价达到了一辆汽车的四分之一 |
|
vacuum cleaner:n.真空吸尘器; Skinner:n.剥皮工人;皮革商;骗子; Hoover:vi.胡佛电动吸尘;n.胡佛电动吸尘器;
|
| So it wasn't a big seller. |
所以,它卖的不是很好 |
| This was truly an early-adopter product -- |
这是最早的采纳产品 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| the 1905 Skinner Vacuum. |
1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器 |
| But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds. |
仅仅三年后,也就是1908年,它的重量就缩减到了40磅 |
| Now, not all these things were highly successful. |
并不是所有的事情都是那么成功 |
|
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地;
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on. |
这是一个电力领带熨平器,它就没有流行起来 |
| People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties. |
我猜,人们都不会把他们的领带弄皱 |
|
wrinkle:n.皱纹;皱褶,皱痕;v.(使脸上)起皱纹;皱起;
|
| These never really caught on either: the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller. |
下面的这些也没有流行起来: 鞋子专用的电动加热干燥器,销量很差 |
| This came in, like, six different colors. |
它看起来有六种不同的颜色 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| I don't know why. But I thought, you know, sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention; maybe it's time to give this one another shot. |
我不知道这是为什么,但是,你们可能会这样认为 并不是任何时候都适合进行一些发明创造 也许,现在是重新启动这项发明的最佳时间 |
| So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this. |
因此,我们可以就此推出一个广告,将其在超级杯上播放 |
| We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really -- |
我们需要合适的合作伙伴,而且我觉得—— |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| I thought that would really work, to give that another shot. |
我觉得这样一定可行,值得重新尝试一下 |
| Now, the toaster was huge because they used to make toast on open fires, and it took a lot of time and attention. |
电烤箱曾经是个庞然大物 因为人们通常在野外做烤面包 这需要很多的时间和精力 |
|
toaster:n.烤面包器,烤箱;祝酒人;烤面包的人;
|
| I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is. |
我想指出的是,这个,大家应该知道这是什么东西 |
| They hadn't invented the electric socket yet. |
那个时候人们尚未发明电插座 |
| So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity. |
还记得吗,当时人们不是为了使用电力而拉电线 |
| They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in. |
他们是为了照明。因此,你可以把你的用电器插到上面 |
|
plug:n.插头;塞子;栓;v.塞住;用插头将与电源接通;
|
| They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top. |
人们在每一间屋子的天花板上都会装一个灯泡插座 |
| And you'd plug it in there. |
这样你就可以把灯泡插在上面了 |
| In fact, if you've seen the carousel progress at Disney World, you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture . |
如果你没有见到过迪斯尼乐园的旋转木马 你一定看到过这个。这些是连接灯具的电线 |
|
carousel:n.旋转木马;行李传送带; Disney:n.迪斯尼(美国动画影片制作家及制片人); cables:n.缆绳;钢索;电缆;电报;v.发电报;(cable的第三人称单数和复数) fixture:n.设备;固定装置;固定于某处不大可能移动之物;
|
| All the appliances plug in there. And you'd just unscrew your light bulb if you wanted to plug in an appliance. |
所有的用电器都装在上面。你需要做的就是将你的灯泡拧下来 这样你就可以使用其他的用电器了 |
|
unscrew:vt.旋开;旋松;从...旋出螺丝;
|
| The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine . |
洗衣机是接下来的非常成功的另一个例子 |
|
washing machine:洗衣机,洗涤机;
|
| Now, this was an object of much envy and lust . |
这是一个充满嫉妒和欲望对象 |
|
envy:n.嫉妒,妒忌;羡慕;v.嫉妒,妒忌;羡慕;感到妒忌;显示出妒忌; lust:n.性欲;强烈的欲望;vi.贪求,渴望;
|
| Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines. |
每个人都想得到一台电动洗衣机 |
| On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water. |
左边的那个桶装的是肥皂水 |
|
left-hand:adj.左手的;左侧的; soapy:adj.涂着肥皂的;含有肥皂的;似肥皂的;圆滑的;
|
| And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning . |
那里有一个转子,是一个旋转式马达 |
|
rotor:n.[电][机][动力]转子;水平旋翼;旋转体; spinning:n.纺纱(手艺):纺线v.(使)旋转:纺线:纺纱;(spin的现在分词)
|
| And it would clean your clothes. |
它会清洁你的衣服 |
| This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here, put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric ringer . |
这是漂洗用的干净的水。从这里你可以把衣服拿出来 放在这里,然后把衣服通过这个电圈 |
|
ringer:n.套环,投环;按铃者;敲钟者;
|
| And this was a big deal. |
这是一台很了不起的电器 |
| You'd keep this on your porch . It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain. |
你会把它放在你的门廊上,因为它有点脏,并且有点烦人 |
|
porch:n.门廊;走廊; messy:adj.肮脏的;凌乱的;不整洁的;
|
| And you'd run a long cord into the house where you could screw it into your light socket. |
你不得不扯一条很长的电线到你的房子里 这样你才能把它连在灯座上 |
|
cord:n.(结实的)粗线,细绳;灯芯绒裤子;v.用索子捆[绑,扎];堆积(柴薪)
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation , because they hadn't invented the off switch. |
而这实际上是我的介绍中很重要的一点 因为人们当时还没有发明开关 |
|
presentation:n.展示;描述,陈述;介绍;赠送;
|
| That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances -- because it didn't make any sense. |
而电器上开关的发明时间比这个还要晚 因为人们觉得这没有什么意义 |
|
switch on:n.接通;
|
| I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket. |
我的意思是说,人们不希望有什么东西把灯泡底座堵住 |
|
clogging:n.堵塞;v.阻塞(clog的现在分词);
|
| So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it. |
当人们不想使用灯泡的时候,就会把它拧松一些 |
|
unscrewed:v.没有扭紧;松开(unscrew的过去分词);
|
| That's what you did. You didn't turn it off. |
这就是人们当时所做的,实际上并没有关掉它 |
| As I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either, so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device . |
正如我之前所讲,人们并没有去发明电插座 因此,洗衣机是一台很危险的设备 |
|
As I said:正如我所说的 outlet:n.出口;(感情、思想、精力发泄的)出路;表现机会;专营店; particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; device:n.装置;策略;图案;
|
| And there are -- when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices . |
实际上 当你研究这些事情的时候,你会找到一些恐怖的描述 比如说人们会不小心把头发和衣服搅在一起 |
|
gruesome:adj.可怕的;阴森的; descriptions:n.摘要;说明,说明书;描述(description的复数形式); devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数);
|
| And they couldn't yank the cord out because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house. |
而且你还不能立马将电源断掉 因为电源插头被紧紧拧在了屋里的灯泡插座上 |
|
yank:v.猛拉;猛拽;n.突然的猛拉;急抽
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good. |
并且洗衣机上也没有开关,这样一点儿也不好 |
| And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors to be plugging things into a light socket like this. |
你也许会想我们的先人们真是不一般的傻 竟然会把用电器像这样插到灯泡插座上 |
|
plugging:v.堵塞;封堵;补足;补充;推广;宣传;(plug的现在分词)
|
| But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors, |
但,在我过多讨论谴责我们先人之前 |
|
condemning:n.谴责;处刑;v.谴责;(condemn的现在分词)
|
| I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room. |
我觉得我要先给大家展示一下:这是我的会议室 |
|
conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
|
| This is a total kludge, if you ask me. |
这绝对是一台杂牌组装电脑 |
| First of all , this got installed upside down . This light socket -- |
首先,它组装的乱七八糟。这个电灯插座—— |
|
First of all:adv.首先; installed:v.安装;设置;使就职(install的过去分词和过去式) upside down:adj.颠倒的;乱七八糟的;
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in. |
电线总是会掉出来,所以我就把它固定在了上面 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one. |
这样我就不用总是连接电线了,但这还不是最糟糕的 |
| This is what it looks like under my desk. |
这是我桌子底下的情形 |
| I took this picture just two days ago. |
是我两天前拍下来的 |
| So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908. |
其实,自从1908年以来我们根本没有太大的进步 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| It's a total, total mess. |
还是一团糟 |
| And, you know, we think it's getting better, but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself? |
我觉得将来会更好一些 但,你有没有试着自己安装802.11 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| I challenge you to try. It's very hard. |
我觉得大家应该尝试一下,非常难 |
| I know PhDs in Computer Science -- this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. |
我认识的一些计算机科学专业的博士 都认为这个过程非常劳神,绝对让人痛苦 |
|
Computer Science:n.计算机科学; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
|
| And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house. |
前提是,你在你的家中有DSL（数字用户线路） |
|
assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
|
| Try to get DSL installed in your house. |
把数字用户线路装在你的家中 |
| The engineers who do it everyday can't do it. |
每天做这件事情的工程师都做不了 |
| They have to -- typically, they come three times. |
他们有时不得不往返三次 |
| And one friend of mine was telling me a story. |
我的一个朋友曾经告诉我一个故事 |
| Not only did they get there and have to wait, but then the engineers, when they finally did get there, for the third time, they had to call somebody. |
不仅仅是那些工作人员到了那里之后,去等待 而且最终工程师到了那里 也就是第三次的时候,工程师也不得不打电话求助其他人 |
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finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
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| And they were really happy that the guy had a speaker phone because then they had to wait on hold for an hour to talk to somebody to give them an access code after they got there. |
那些工作人员很高兴,因为这个工程师有一个免提电话 这样他们在另一个小时的等待过程中就可以 和另一拨人交流并告诉他们访问代码 直至他们到达 |
| So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves. |
其实我们自己本身就是一台杂牌组装电脑 |
| By the way, DSL is a kludge. |
顺便说一下,DSL（数字用户线路）就是组装的 |
| I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed for the purpose it's being put to. |
也就是说铜制双绞线设计制作的初衷 并不是用于互联网 |
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twisted:adj.扭曲的; v.使弯曲,使扭曲; (twist的过去分词和过去式) copper:n.铜;铜币;警察;adj.铜(制)的;(紫)铜色的;v.用铜板[铜皮]盖[包];
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| You know it's the whole thing. |
这就是整个事情 |
| We're very, very primitive . And that's kind of the point. |
我们是很原始的,这才是重点 |
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primitive:adj.原始的,远古的;简单的,粗糙的;n.原始人;
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| Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone. |
因为,你知道的,弹性——如果你把它当作淘金热 然后你会很沮丧 因为最后一块黄金将会消失 |
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depressed:adj.沮丧的; v.使抑郁; (depress的过去式和过去分词) nugget:n.天然金块,矿块;珍闻,珍品;
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| But the good thing is, with innovation , there isn't a last nugget. |
不过,值得高兴的是,通过创新,黄金将会取之不尽 |
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innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
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| Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities. |
新生事物创造了两个新问题的同时也创造了两个新的机遇（问题与机遇并存） |
| And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are -- this is what I think: I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge -- and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web. |
如果你相信这句话,那么你也就能体会我们现在的处境 这就是我的观点:我喜欢我们所处的这种充斥了组装电脑的环境 我甚至没有提及互联网上的用户界面（的千差万别） |
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interfaces:n.分界面; v.把界面缝合; (interface的复数)
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| But there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff, we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet. |
但是,现实中有太多的杂牌组装电脑,太多可怕的东西 当今互联网的发展状况和1908年Hurley牌洗衣机如出一辙 |
| That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it, but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are. |
这就是现在我们的处境。我们不再有头发被搅在洗衣机里的事件发生了 但这就是我们所处在的原始水平 |
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primitiveness:原始;原始性;
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| We're in 1908. |
仿佛回到了1908年 |
| And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996: "All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble." |
如果你相信我所说的,那么像这样的事情就不会困扰你了。这是1996年的一条消息: “所有的负面消息累积起来,让我们觉得解决网络问题的努力变得毫无价值。” |
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bother:v.烦扰,打扰;使…不安;操心,麻烦;n.麻烦;烦恼; negatives:n.[摄]底片; v.否定;
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| 1998: " Amazon .toast." In 1999: " Amazon .bomb." |
1998:“亚马逊如同烤面包”,但1999:“亚马逊就是炸弹” |
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Amazon:亚马逊;古希腊女战士;
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| My mom hates this picture. |
我妈妈不喜欢这张照片 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very, very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine, then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are. |
但是,如果你真是这么认为的话,那仅仅是 一个开始,如果你把互联网看成是1908年的Hurley牌洗衣机 你就会觉得很有希望。而我就是这么看待现如今的网络的 |
| And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us than there is behind us. |
我坚信,将来我们能够创造的革新远比我们已经 做到的要多得多 |
| And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right. |
1917年,当时...我希望别把这个搞错了 |
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Sears:v.使干枯;灼伤(sear的单三形式);
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| This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917. |
这是一个在1917年播出的广告 |
| It says: "Use your electricity for more than light." |
上面有句话:“不要仅仅用电来照明。” |
| And I think that's where we are. |
我觉得,这就是我们现在所面临的处境 |
| We're very, very early. Thank you very much. |
我们还非常非常早。谢谢大家。 |