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IanGoldin_2009G-_世界未来发展的方向_
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| The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable . |
众所周知,未来是变幻莫测的。 |
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unpredictable:adj.不可预知的;不定的;出乎意料的;n.不可预言的事;
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| The best minds in the best institutions generally get it wrong. |
那些供职于顶级科研机构的各个领域的专家 基本上在曲解未来。 |
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institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地;
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| This is in technology . This is in the area of politics , where pundits , the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong. |
这种情况在科技,政治领域很常见, 美国CIA,英国MI6(与CIA性质类似)的专家们就是很好的例子。 |
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technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; politics:n.政治;钩心斗角;政治观点;v.(贬)从事政治活动;(politic的第三人称单数) pundits:权威(pundit的复数);
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| And it's clearly in the area of finance . |
在金融领域十分明显。 |
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finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费;
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| With institutions established to think about the future, the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum , couldn't see what was coming. |
他们建立相关机构来思考未来, 比如:IMF (国际货币基金组织),BIS (国际清算银行),金融稳定论坛,但是他们也没能找到答案。 |
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established:adj.已确立的;著名的;v.建立;创立;设立;(establish的过去分词和过去式) Financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; Stability:n.稳定性;坚定,恒心; Forum:n.论坛,讨论会;法庭;公开讨论的广场;
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| Over 20,000 economists whose job it is, competitive entry to get there, couldn't see what was happening. |
超过2万名经济学家, 他们比谁都更迫切地想找到答案, 而面对现在发生的一切,他们也没什么头绪。 |
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competitive:adj.竞争的;比赛的;求胜心切的;
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| Globalization is getting more complex . |
全球化正变得愈加复杂。 |
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Globalization:n.全球化; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
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| And this change is getting more rapid. |
而且这种变化的速度越来越快。 |
| The future will be more unpredictable. |
未来将会更加难以预料。 |
| Urbanization , integration , coming together, leads to a new renaissance . |
城市化,一体化, 交织在一起,方向是新一轮的复兴。 |
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Urbanization:n.都市化;文雅化; integration:n.集成;综合; renaissance:n.文艺复兴(欧洲14至17世纪);
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| It did this a thousand years ago. |
同样的事情在1000年前就发生过。 |
| The last 40 years have been extraordinary times. |
过去的40年是非比寻常的40年。 |
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extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的;
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| Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years. |
世界人均寿命增长了25岁。 |
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Life expectancy:预期寿命;
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| It took from the stone age to achieve that. |
人类平均寿命从石器时代发展到现在才达到这个水平。 |
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stone age:n.石器时代;
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| Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population, despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period. |
世界大多数人口的收入都得到增长, 尽管在此期间世界人口总数增长了20亿。 |
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majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人: despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱;
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| And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on earth. |
此外,世界人口中,文盲的比例从50%降至约25%。 |
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illiteracy:n.文盲;无知;
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| A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential for innovation , for development. |
这是巨大的机遇, 为创新与发展带来前所未有的可能性。 |
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unleashing:v.发泄;突然释放;使爆发(unleash的现在分词) potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
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| But there is an underbelly . |
可是,全球化并不是完美无缺的。 |
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underbelly:n.下腹部;薄弱部分;易受攻击的部位,区域等;
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| There are two Achilles' heels of globalization. |
它有两处软肋。 |
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heels:n.高跟鞋(heel的复数);脚踝;残余料;v.紧跟;给(鞋等)装跟(heel的三单形式);
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| There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality. |
首先就是不平等现象。 |
| Those that are left out, those that feel angry, those that are not participating . Globalization has not been inclusive . |
对那些感到自己被排除在全球化之外,心怀不满, 不愿参与全球化的人, 全球化没有做到一视同仁。 |
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participating:v.参加;参与(participate的现在分词) inclusive:adj.包括的,包含的;
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| The second Achilles' heel is complexity . |
全球化的第二处软肋就是它过于复杂。 |
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complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势
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| A growing fragility , a growing brittleness. |
它愈发地脆弱,经不起打击。 |
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fragility:n.脆弱;[力]易碎性;虚弱;
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| What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else. |
某地如果发生了什么会很快地波及一切。 |
| This is a systemic risk, systemic shock. |
这就是我们所说的:系统性风险,系统性冲击。 |
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systemic:adj.系统的;全身的;体系的;
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| We've seen it to the financial crisis . We've seen it in the pandemic flu. |
我们在金融危机,大规模流感中,已经见识到它的厉害了。 |
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crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; pandemic:adj.(疾病等)全国流行的;普遍的;n.流行性疾病;
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| It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against. |
情况会变得更加要命,建立弹性机制加以应对势在必行。 |
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virulent:adj.剧毒的;恶性的;有恶意的; resilience:n.恢复力;弹力;顺应力;
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| A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology. |
这一切很大程度上是被科技进步所驱使的。 |
| There have been huge leaps . There will be a million-fold improvement in what you can get for the same price in computing by 2030. |
科技领域发生着翻天覆地的变化。到2030年的时候, 花一样的钱, 你能买到比现在的电脑先进无数倍的产品。 |
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leaps:n.跳跃,剧增,急变(leap的复数);v.跳跃;急速进步(leap的三单形式); improvement:n.改进,改善; computing:n.计算;计算机技术;信息处理技术;v.计算;求出;(compute的现在分词)
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| That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been. |
我们在过去20年中经历的就是如此。 |
| It will continue. |
将来也会是如此。 |
| Our computers, our systems will be as primitive as the Apollo 's are for today. |
我们现在用的电脑和系统以后都会变成老古董 就像我们现在回头看阿波罗飞船上的电脑一样。 |
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primitive:adj.原始的,远古的;简单的,粗糙的;n.原始人; Apollo:n.阿波罗(太阳神);美男子;
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| Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine. |
现在我们用的手机都比阿波罗飞船的引擎功能更强大 |
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mobile:n.手机;汽车;移动电话;adj.活跃的;可动的;
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| Our mobile phones are more powerful than some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago. |
我们的手机, 甚至比20年前有些最高端计算机还要强大 |
| So what will this do? |
那么,这意味着什么呢？ |
| It will create huge opportunities in technology. |
这将给科技领域带来无限的机遇。 |
| Miniaturization as well. |
在小型化领域也是如此。 |
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Miniaturization:n.小型化,微型化;
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| There will be invisible capacity . Invisible capacity in our bodies, in our brains, and in the air. |
将来我们可以在人体, 大脑,空气等肉眼无法看到的地方展开作业 |
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invisible:adj.看不见的;n.看不见的人或物; capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力;
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| This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica. |
尘螨下面是一台纳米自我复制机。 |
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dust mite:n.尘螨(可引起过敏);
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| This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential, not least in the area of medicine. |
这种变革能力带来的就是潜能的爆发, 而这不仅陷于医学领域。 |
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unleashes:v.发泄;突然释放;使爆发(unleash的第三人称单数)
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| This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford, from an embryonic stem cell. |
这是牛津大学从胚胎干细胞里 培育出来的干细胞。 |
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stem cell:干细胞; embryonic:adj.[胚]胚胎的;似胚胎的;
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| We can develop any part of the body. |
我们可以培植人体各个部位。 |
| Increasingly , over time, this will be possible from our own skin -- able to replicate parts of the body. |
随着时间的推移,从我们自己的皮肤里复制培植人体器官, 将不再是空想。 |
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Increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地; replicate:vt.复制; vi.重复; adj.复制的; n.复制品;
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| Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine. |
再造医学潜力巨大。 |
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Fantastic:奇异的,空想的 regenerative:adj.再生的,更生的;更新的;
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| I don't think there will be a special Olympics long after 2030, because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body. |
我觉得2030年之后就不会再有残奥会了, 因为我们可以再造人体各部位。 |
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regenerate:vt.使再生;革新;vi.再生;革新;adj.再生的;革新的;
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| But the question is, "Who will have it?" |
但问题是:”谁会拥有这种能力呢？“ |
| The other major development is going to be in the area of what can happen in genetics . |
另一重要的发展将会发生在 遗传学领域。 |
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genetics:n.遗传学;
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| The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified , something which goes three times faster, lasts for three times longer, we could produce, |
这就是创造的能力。就像这只转基因老鼠一样, 它的速度, 耐力都超出普通老鼠3倍, |
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genetically modified:adj.(植物等)遗传修饰的;
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| as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years, using about the same amount of food. |
换算成人类的年龄的话,80岁老人也能像青年人一样充满活力, 而消耗食物却与常人无异。 |
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equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
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| But will this only be available for the super rich, for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics ? |
但是,这会不会仅供那些富豪, 那些能消费得起的人的专用？我们的下一站是哪里？新的优生学吗？ |
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afford:v.给予,提供;买得起; eugenics:n.优生学;
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| Will only those that are able to afford it be able to be this super race of the future? |
难道只有那些有钱人 才能做将来的超人类吗？ |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| So the big question for us is, "How do we manage this technological change?" |
所以我们面对的最重要的问题就是, ”我们该如何掌控这一科技变革？“ |
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technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的;
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| How do we ensure that it creates a more inclusive technology, a technology which means that not only as we grow older, that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support the populations of the future? |
如何才能确保, 这一变革将使科技更加一视同仁,造福所有人？ 也就是说, 科技让我们能够在变老的同时 智慧也随之增长,继而很好地应对 未来的人口问题。 |
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ensure:vt.保证,确保;使安全;
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| One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements will be moving from populations pyramids, to what we might term population coffins . |
能够凸显这一系列进步的 将会是人口结构从金字塔形（年轻型） 开始向所谓的”棺材“形（老年型）转变。 |
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dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; manifestations:n.临床表现(manifestion的复数);显示;证明; improvements:n.改善;改进;改善的事物;(improvement的复数) coffins:n.棺材;棺椁;棺木;(coffin的第三人称单数和复数)
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| There is unlikely to be a pension or a retirement age in 2030. |
到了2030年,可能就不会看到诸如”养老金“, ”适龄退休“这类的字眼了。 |
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unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的; pension:n.养老金;退休金;抚恤金;adj.有关退休金的;v.给…养老金[恤金,津贴等]; retirement:n.退休;退职;退休年龄;退休生活;
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| These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West. |
这些概念将不再适用。不仅在西方社会 |
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redundant:adj.多余的,过剩的;被解雇的,失业的;冗长的,累赘的;
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| The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper type of new pyramids, that will take place in China and in many other countries. |
人口结构会出现巨大变化 像这种”摩天大楼“形,（成年型） 将会出现在中国以及其他很多国家。 |
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skyscraper:n.摩天楼,超高层大楼;特别高的东西; take place:发生;举行;
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| So forget about retirements if you're young. |
好了,台下的年轻人还不需去想退休这个问题。 |
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retirements:n.退休;退职;退休年龄;退休生活;(retirement的复数)
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| Forget about pensions . Think about life and where it's going to be going. |
我们不谈养老金话题。想想生活,以后的生活。 |
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pensions:n.[劳经]养老金(pension的复数形式); v.发放退休金(pension的第三人称单数形式);
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| Of course, migration will become even more important. |
显而易见,移民问题将会变得越加重要。 |
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migration:n.迁移;迁徙;转移;移居;
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| The war on talent, the need to attract people at all skill ranges, to push us around in our wheelchairs , but also to drive our economies . Our innovation will be vital . |
人才之战即将打响,吸引人才的需求 涉及到各行各业, 人才在承担赡养老龄人口的责任的同时 也是经济增长的动力。我们的创新能力将是至关重要的因素。 |
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wheelchairs:[医]轮椅; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) vital:adj.至关重要的;生死攸关的;有活力的;
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| The employment in the rich countries will go down from about 800 to about 700 million of these people. |
在富裕国家, 工作人口的数量将从8亿 降至7亿人。 |
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employment:n.使用;职业;雇用;
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| This would imply a massive leap in migration. |
这意味着一轮移民潮的到来。 |
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imply:v.意味;暗示;隐含; massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的;
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| So the concerns , the xenophobic concerns of today, of migration, will be turned on their head, as we search for people to help us sort out our pensions and our economies in the future. |
所以现在对移民的恐惧、仇视情绪 将来会被逆转。 因为将来我们需要他们的帮助 来解决养老金问题,经济问题。 |
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concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式); xenophobic:adj.恐惧外国人的;
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| And then, the systemic risks. |
那么接着就是-系统性风险。 |
| We understand that these will become much more virulent, that what we see today, is this interweaving of societies, of systems, fastened by technologies , and hastened by just-in-time management systems. |
我们深知,这些风险的致命性会大大增加。 目前, 各种科学门类,制度体系之间相辅相成, 而科技、 准时生产管理理念 （JIT理念）加速了它们的融合。 |
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interweaving:n.交织性;v.使交织;使混杂(interweave的ing形式); technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); hastened:加速;赶快; just-in-time:n.刚好及时;恰好够用;adj.及时生产的; management:n.管理;管理人员;管理部门;操纵;经营手段;
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| Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility. |
少量的库存可以让生产者免受适应市场之苦（JIT理念的基本要义） |
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stock:n.股票; v.库存; adj.老一套的;
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| The collapse in biodiversity , climate change, pandemics , financial crises : these will be the currency that we will think about. |
我们在维持生物多样化,对应气候变化 大规模疾病爆发,金融危机等问题上屡屡受挫 这些都是我们将来要考虑的课题。 |
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collapse:vi.倒塌;瓦解;暴跌;vt.使倒塌,使崩溃;使萎陷;折叠;n.倒塌;失败;衰竭; biodiversity:n.生物多样性; pandemics:大流行;流行病; crises:n.危机,紧要关头;危险期(crisis的复数形式); currency:n.货币;通货;
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| And so a new awareness will have to arise , of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves, in a new way, and come together as a community to manage systemic risk. |
因此,我们必须要用全新的意识, 思考如何应对这些问题,如何以全新的方式全体动员起来, 团结一致, 掌控系统性风险。 |
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awareness:n.意识,认识;明白,知道; arise:v.出现;发生;产生;起身; mobilize:v.动员;动员;调动;组织;鼓动;调用; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
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| It's going to require innovation. |
创新是必须的。 |
| It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization could also be its downfall . |
要知道,全球化如日中天的时刻 也可能成为它衰落的起点。 |
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downfall:n.垮台;衰败;落下;大雨;
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| This could be our best century ever because of the achievements. |
因为有了许多的成就,本世纪可能是金色世纪。 |
| Or it could be our worst. |
也有可能是灰色世纪。 |
| And of course we need to worry about the individuals . |
毫无疑问,“个人”会是未来的隐患。 |
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individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
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| Particularly the individuals that feel that they've been left out, in one way or another. |
尤其是那些感到自己被这样或那样的方式 排挤在全球化之外的人。 |
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Particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
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| An individual for the first time, in the history of humanity , will have the capacity, by 2030, to destroy the planet, to wreck everything, through the creation , for example, of a biopathogen. |
到2030年,个人, 将史无前例地拥有 毁灭地球,摧毁一切的能力。 比如,利用制造生物病原体的方法。 |
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humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; wreck:n.严重损毁人或物;沉船;v.破坏;损坏;毁掉;使遇难; creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物;
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| How do we begin to weave these tapestries together? |
这盘”大杂烩“我们该如何炒呢？ |
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weave:v.编,织;(用…)编成;编造(故事等);n.织法;编法;编织式样; tapestries:n.挂毯(tapestry的复数);v.饰以织锦画(tapestry的第三人称单数形式);
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| How do we think about complex systems in new ways? |
我们怎样才能用新的方法思考错综复杂的系统、机制呢？ |
| That will be the challenge of the scholars , and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future. |
这对学者来说是挑战, 对所有思考未来的人来说都是挑战。 |
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scholars:n.学者们(scholar的复数); engaged in:从事于;忙于;
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| The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now. |
我们要未雨绸缪。 |
| We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized . |
要知道,世界现有的执政结构已经陈腐僵化。 |
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governance:n.管理;统治;支配; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造; fossilized:adj.石化的;僵化的;老化的;v.石化(fossilize的过去式和过去分词);
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| It can not begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring. |
难以应对未来的挑战。 |
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cope:v.处理;n.大圆衣;
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| We have to develop a new way of managing the planet, collectively , through collective wisdom . |
我们管理地球的方式需要 通过群策群力来革新。 |
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collectively:adv.共同地,全体地; wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问;
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| We know, and I know, from my own experience, that amazing things can happen, when individuals and societies come together to change their future. |
从我的亲身经历中,我明白 只要个人和社会为了改变未来 团结一致 什么事都有可能发生。 |
| I left South Africa. And 15 years later, after thinking I would never go back, |
15年前我离开了南非。 我曾告诉自己”我再也不会回去。“ |
| I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela. |
但我后来竟有幸为尼尔森·曼德拉的政府效力。 |
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privilege:n.特权;优待;v.给与…特权;特免;
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| This was a miracle. We can create miracles , collectively, in our lifetime. |
这是奇迹。在我们有生之年, 我们可以团结一致,创造奇迹。 |
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miracles:n.奇迹;奇人;不平凡的事;(miracle的复数)
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| It is vital that we do so. |
这势在必行。 |
| It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED that the ideas that we think about, look forward , and make sure that this will be the most glorious century, and not one of eco-disaster, and eco-collapse. |
能够在TED形成这些 思考,展望未来的想法很重要。 同样重要的是我们要确保这个世纪成为最美好的世纪, 而不是一个生态遭到严重破坏,灾难重重的世纪。 |
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nurtured:v.养育;培养;养护;支持(nurture的过去分词和过去式) look forward:向前看;期待;曲协盼望;盼望;朝前展望; glorious:adj.光荣的;辉煌的;极好的;
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| Thank you. (Applause) |
谢谢。（掌声） |