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IanBremmer_2016X-_美国应如何运用其超级大国的地位_
When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology , the world changing, becoming more innovative . 各位来参加TED的演讲,心中想的大都是科技议题, 世界正在改变,变的更有创造力了。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; innovative:adj.革新的,创新的;
You think about the driverless . 各位可能会想到无人驾驶。
driverless:无人驾驶的;
Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days, and I love the concept of a driverless car, but when I go in one, you know, 现在每个人都在讨论无人驾驶汽车, 我也喜欢无人驾驶汽车的概念, 但是说实话,当我坐进去时,
I want it really slow, 我真的希望它开慢一点,
I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case . 我希望在发生意外的时候,我能亲自操控方向盘和刹车。
steering wheel:n.方向盘;(操)舵轮; just in case:以防万一;作为准备;
I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus. 我不知道在座的各位是怎么想的,至少我还没有准备好登上无人驾驶公交车。
I am not ready for a driverless airplane . 我也还没有准备好要乘坐无人驾驶的飞机。
airplane:n.飞机;
How about a driverless world? 那么,一个无人领导的世界会是怎样呢？
And I ask you that because we are increasingly in one. 我会这样问的原因, 是因为我们都正逐渐融为一体。
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地;
It's not supposed to be that way. 本来事情不应该是这样的。
supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式)
We're number one, the United States is large and in charge. 我们是全球第一的国家, 我们美国说一不二。
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
Americanization and globalization for the last several generations have basically been the same thing. 对于近年来的几代人而言, 美国化和全球化基本上谈的都是同一件事,对吧？
Americanization:n.美国化; globalization:n.全球化; basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization or it's the IMF, the World Bank , the Bretton Woods Accord on currency , these were American institutions , our values, our friends, our allies , our money, our standards . 不论是WTO 亦或是IMF、世界银行、 布莱顿森林货币协定、 它们都是美国的机构, 我们的价值观、朋友、同盟、货币、标准等。
Organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体; World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构); Accord:n.协议;协定;一致;和谐;v.一致;给予;相符;协调; currency:n.货币;通货; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) allies:n.盟友,支持者:v.与…结盟(ally的第三人称单数和复数) standards:n.标准,水平,规格(standard的复数)
That was the way the world worked. 这就是这个世界运行的方式。
So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks, here it is. 开玩笑说,如果你想知道美国看起来是什么样的, 那么这张图就是了。
This is our view of how the world is run. 这就是我们美国人对于世界如何运转的印象,
President Obama has got the red carpet , he goes down Air Force One , and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable. 奥巴马总统脚踏红地毯 走下空军一号, 这看起来很美妙,让人感觉很舒服。
red carpet:adj.隆重的;殷勤的;华贵的; Air Force One:n.空军一号(美国总统的专用座机);
Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week and the G20. 我不知道你们有多少人看过上周总统的中国之行 与G20峰会的报导,
Oh my God. Right? 天啊,
This is how we landed for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China. 在中国举办的全球峰会, 这么重要的场合,这就是我们总统着陆的方式？
The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives no red carpet, kind of left out the bottom of the plane along with all the media and everybody else. 国家安全顾问站在柏油路面上 总统没有红地毯铺路, 就直接从飞机上下来, 还和媒体还有其他人混在一起！
spewing:v.(使)喷出,涌出;呕吐(spew的现在分词) expletives:填补物;咒骂语(expletive的名词复数); media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
Later on in the G20, well, there's Obama. 在稍后的G20会议中…… 好吧,这是奥巴马总统
(Laughter) （笑声）
Hi, George. “你好,乔治”
Hi, Norman. “你好,诺曼”
They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right? 他们看起好像马上就要打架了,是不是？
And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria . 的确,他们花了90分钟讨论叙利亚的问题。
Syria:n.叙利亚共和国;
That's what Putin wanted to talk about. 这也是普京想要讨论的,
He's increasingly calling the shots. 他超想开战的,
He's the one willing to do stuff there. 他想成为历史人物。
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
There's not a lot of mutual like or trust, but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do. 实际上他们并不互相喜欢或信任, 也不是我们美国喜欢对他指手画脚。
mutual:adj.共同的;相互的,彼此的;
How about when the whole 20 are getting together? 那么全部20国在一起的时候又是什么样的？
Surely, when the leaders are all onstage , then the Americans are pulling their weight. 诚然,当所有领导聚在一起 美国人就会仔细观察他们的互动了。
onstage:adj.台上的;台上演出的;adv.上台;上场;
Uh-oh. 噢哦。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Xi Jinping seems fine. 习近平看起来气色不错,
that look, she always does that. 她一直看起来就那样。
But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do, and Obama is like, what's going on over there? 但是普京正在跟土耳其总统埃尔多安交头接耳, 奥巴马看起来就像是在想,他们两个是不是又要搞事了？
Turkish:adj.土耳其的;土耳其人的,土耳其语的;突厥诸语言的;n.土耳其语;
You see. And the problem is it's not a G20, the problem is it's a G-Zero world that we live in, a world order where there is no single country or alliance that can meet the challenges of global leadership. 你看,问题不在G20, 真正的问题是 我们生活在一个G0的世界中, 一个没有任何一个单独的国家或联盟 可以担起领导全球重任的世界。
alliance:n.联盟,联合;联姻;
The G20 doesn't work, the G7, all of our friends, that's history. G20并没有什么实际用处, 由我们的盟友组成的G7也成为历史了。
So globalization is continuing. 但全球化仍在不断继续,
Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders faster and faster than ever before, but Americanization is not. 商品、服务、人员和资本也在不断跨境流动, 流动的越来越快,远超从前, 但美国化并不是这样。
So if I've convinced you of that, 所以如果你也接受上述论点,
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式)
I want to do two things with the rest of this talk. 那么我在剩下的演讲时间中做两件事。
I want to talk about the implications of that for the whole world. 一是我想和各位谈谈 各地全球化的进展。
implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数);
I'll go around it. 我会围绕这个主题讨论。
And then I want to talk about what we think right here in the United States and in New York. 然后我会再进一步??讨论 身处在美国及纽约的我们是怎么想的。
So why? What are the implications. Why are we here? 为什么？这又有什么影响？我们今天为什么会卡在这里？
Well, we're here because the United States, we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were failed. 我们会卡在这里, 是因为美国 花费两万亿美元去打伊拉克和阿富汗的战争, 然后我们失败了。
trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
We don't want to do that anymore. 我们再也不想做这样的事情了,
We have large numbers of middle and working classes that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization, so they don't want to see it particularly . 我们有大量的中产和工人阶级国民, 但他们并没有感觉到承诺中的全球化所带来的好处。 尤其他们更不想再看到战争。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
And we have an energy revolution where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to. 同时我们还在进行能源革命, 这使我们不再像往常那样依赖OPEC和中东的石油。
revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环; Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部);
We produce all that right here in the United States. 让我们能自给自足。
So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security or the architect of global trade. 所以美国不想再做全球安全的护航者。 或者环球经贸的设计师。
sheriff:n.州长;郡治安官;执行吏; architect:n.建筑师;设计师;创造者;
The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values. 美国人甚至不想去当全球价值观的倡导者。
cheerleader:n.拉拉队队员;
Well, then you look to Europe, and the most important alliance in the world has been the transatlantic relationship. 好吧,你再去看欧洲—— 我们在大西洋对岸的 最重要的盟友。
transatlantic:adj.大西洋彼岸的,横渡大西洋的;美国的;
But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II, all of the crises , the Brexit conversations, the hedging going on between the French and the Russians, or the Germans and the Turks , or the Brits and the Chinese. 它自二战以来正每况愈下,危机频发: 英国脱欧, 法俄冲突, 还有德国-土耳其冲突和英中之间的不愉快。
crises:n.危机,紧要关头;危险期(crisis的复数形式); Brexit:英国退出欧盟; hedging:v.避免正面回答;拐弯抹角;包围;限制;(hedge的现在分词) Turks:n.土耳其人;突厥人(Turk的复数形式); Brits:n.英国人(Brit的复数);布里茨(男子名);
China does want to do more leadership. 中国的确想更进一步的领导全球,
They do, but only in the economic sphere , and they want their own values, standards, currency, in competition with that of the US. 他们真的有在想,但只想在经济领域上。 中国更加希望的是,自己的价值观、标准和货币, 能够与美国竞争。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; sphere:n.球;领域;球体;球形;v.使成球形;包围;把…放在球内;使处于天体之间; competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛;
The Russians want to do more leadership. 俄罗斯确实想更有领袖地位。
You see that in Ukraine , in the Baltic states, in the Middle East, but not with the Americans. 看看他们在乌克兰 以及波罗的海诸国还有中东所做的。 但那些都和美国无关,
Ukraine:n.乌克兰(原苏联一加盟共和国,现已独立); Baltic:adj.波罗的海的;n.波罗的海;
They want their own preferences and order. 他们想独树一帜,独掌大权。
preferences:n.偏爱;爱好;喜爱;偏爱的事物;(preference的复数)
That's why we are where we are. 这就是为什么我们卡在这里。
So what happens going forward? 所以接下来世界会发生什么？
Let's start easy, with the Middle East. 我们先从简单的开始讨论, 就从中东开始吧。
(Laughter) （笑声）
You know, I left a little out, but you get the general idea. 你们知道的,我只是点拨一下, 但你们会不约而同地想到中东的稳定问题。
Look, there are three reasons why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right? 你看,有三个原因, 说明了中东过去曾经稳定的原因,是不是？
stability:n.稳定性;坚定,恒心;
One is because there was a willingness to provide some level of military security by the US and allies. 一是他们当时愿意, 让美国及其盟友提供一定程度的军事安全保障。
willingness:n.乐意;心甘情愿;自动自发; military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground because oil was expensive. 第二,中东遍地黄金, 因为石油曾相当昂贵。
And number three was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent . 第三点: 不论中东的领导人是多么差劲,当地人口数量却相对稳定。
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; quiescent:adj.静止的;不活动的;沉寂的;
They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will to really rise up against. 他们不能、也不想, 互相敌对。
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world, all three of those things are increasingly not true, and so failed states, terrorism , refugees and the rest. 但,对于一个G0的世界,我可以说: 这三个理由正逐渐失效。 所以失败国家、恐怖主义、 难民还有其他事故开始出现。
terrorism:n.恐怖主义; refugees:n.避难者;逃亡者;难民;(refugee的复数)
Does the entire Middle East fall apart ? 然而整个中东四分五裂了么？
fall apart:崩溃;土崩瓦解;破碎;
No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel , Iran over time. 并不,库尔德人做的更好一些,伊拉克,以色列,伊朗也会逐渐好起来。
Kurds:n.库尔德人(Kurd的复数); Israel:n.以色列(亚洲国家);犹太人,以色列人;
But generally speaking, it's not a good look. 但总体上说,中东依旧不是很好。
generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地;
OK, how about this guy? 好,那普京这家伙如何呢？
He's playing a poor hand very well. 他简直一塌糊涂。
There's no question he's hitting above his weight. 毫无疑问他好高骛远。
But long term — I didn't mean that. 但长期——我不是有意要这么说
But long term, long term, if you think that the Russians were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders when we said they weren't going to, and the EU encroaching them, ——从长期而言, 如果你认为俄罗斯是被美国和欧盟所挑衅, 让北约组织扩军到他们的国界附近。 当时我们说他们不会这样做。 且有欧盟在蚕食他们,
antagonized:vt.使…敌对;使…对抗;对…起反作用;vi.引起反抗; expanding:v.扩大,增加,增强细谈;详述;(expand的现在分词) NATO:abbr.(=theNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization)[组]北约; encroaching:adj.渐渐渗入的;
just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in. 只要等中国花数千亿美元, 投入到俄罗斯周边他们认为拥有影响力的国家,
influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs . 中国就能从中获益而俄罗斯只能捡剩下的。
dominate:vt.控制;支配;占优势;在…中占主要地位;vi.占优势;处于支配地位; crumbs:v.捏碎;裹上面包屑(用油煎);n.食物碎屑;一点;(crumb的第三人称单数和复数)
In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin. 在这个G0的世界中普京先生未来10年会非常难熬。
It's not all bad. Right? 这还是有点好的,对么？
Asia actually looks a lot better. 亚洲看起来更好一点,
There are real leaders across Asia, they have a lot of political stability. 那里有真正的领导者, 那边有着相当的政治稳定,
They're there for a while . 而且保持了一段时间。
for a while:adv.片刻;暂时;一会儿;一时;
Mr. Modi in India, 印度的莫迪总理、
Modi:n.程序(modus的复数);
Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power, the most powerful leader in China since Mao. 安倍晋三,可能要取得第三个任期的日本自由民主党党魁、 当然还有习近平——他正在巩固自己的权利, 他是自毛泽东以来 最具影响力的中国领导人。
Liberal:adj.宽宏大度的; n.理解且尊重他人意见的人; Democratic Party:n.民主党(美国两大主要政党之一,通常被视为社会改革的支持者); consolidating:v.使加强;使巩固;(使)结成一体,合并;(consolidate的现在分词) enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的;
Those are the three most important economies in Asia. 他们领导着三个最重要的亚洲经济体。
economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
Now look, there are problems in Asia. 但是现在,亚洲也没法独善其身:
We see the sparring over the South China Sea. 我们可以看到南海冲突频发,
sparring:v.练习拳击;辩论,争论(spar的现在分词)n.圆材;
We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days, tested yet another nuclear weapon. 可以看到朝鲜的金正日在几天前 又一次测试了新核武器。
Jong:n.小伙子;(旧时的)青年男奴; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need to wave the flag, to go xenophobic , to actually allow escalation of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions . 但是这些亚洲领导人认为, 他们无需发挥领导力 去排除外部势力, 他们坐视事态扩大。 在面对跨国政治和边境冲突的时候,
xenophobic:adj.恐惧外国人的; escalation:n.增加;扩大;逐步上升; geopolitical:adj.地理政治学的; cross-border:adj.跨越边界的;国境线交叉的; tensions:张力;紧张;
They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth. 他们着眼于长期经济稳定与增长,
long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看;
And that's what they're actually doing. 而这也正是他们正在做的。
Let's turn to Europe. 转到欧洲。
Europe does look a little scared in this environment. 欧洲看起来似乎被现在的国际环境吓到了,
So much of what is happening in the Middle East is washing up quite literally onto European shores. 所以那些发生在中东的事情, 毫不夸张地说,已经波及到了欧洲边境。
literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism across all of the European states. 你们可以看到欧洲人对英国脱欧还有民粹主义的关注 已经遍及了欧洲全境。
concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式); populism:n.民粹主义,平民主义;
Let me tell you that over the long term, in a G-Zero world, 要我说,长期而言, 在G0的世界中,
European expansion will be seen to have gone too far. 欧洲的扩张太快了。
expansion:n.扩张;膨胀;扩展;扩大;
Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East, and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized, that would be less of a problem, 欧洲现在十分靠近俄罗斯和中东, 如果这个世界真的变的更加扁平化及美国化, 这不值一提。
but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia and nearest the Middle East actually have different economic capabilities, different social stability and different political preferences and systems than core Europe. 但对于G0的世界来说, 他们实际上与欧洲核心有着不同的经济体量、 不同的社会稳定因素、 以及不同的政治观点与系统。
core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核;
So Europe was able to truly expand under the G7, but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller. 所以欧盟确实可以在G7的帮助下进行扩张, 但是对于G0,欧洲会重新缩小。
Core Europe around Germany and France and others will still work, be functional , stable , wealthy, integrated . 围绕着德法的欧洲核心国家, 能依旧正常运行,依旧稳定、富裕、互相补益。
functional:adj.功能的; stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房; integrated:adj.综合的; v.整合; (integrate的过去式和过去分词)
But the periphery , countries like Greece and Turkey and others, will not look that good at all. 但那些周边国家, 就像希腊、土耳其还有其他的一些, 可能就会很糟糕了。
periphery:n.外围,边缘;圆周;圆柱体表面;
Latin America , a lot of populism, made the economies not go so well. 拉丁美洲,民粹主义的乐园, 经济被搞得差强人意。
Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区);
They had been more opposed to the United States for decades. 几十年间他们都对美国阳奉阴违,
opposed:adj.强烈反对; v.反对(计划、政策等); (oppose的过去分词和过去式)
Increasingly, they're coming back. 但是现在,他们逐渐地靠拢回来了。
We see that in Argentina . 我们可以看到阿根廷的变化、
Argentina:n.阿根廷(位于拉丁美洲);
We see it with the openness in Cuba. 看到古巴的开放、
openness:n.公开;宽阔;率真;
We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls. 看到委内瑞拉的马杜罗下台、
Venezuela:n.委内瑞拉; Maduro:adj.色深味浓的(指雪茄);n.(西)浓烈的雪茄烟;
We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there. 看到发生在巴西的弹劾、 并最终看到一个新的合法总统当选。
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); impeachment:n.弹劾;控告;怀疑;指摘; finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; legitimate:adj.合法的;正当的;合理的;正统的;v.使合法;认为正当(等于legitimize);
The only place you see that is moving in another direction is the unpopularity of Mexican president Pe?a Nieto. 唯一顽固不化的地方, 是墨西哥,总统佩尼亚·尼托正失去民意。
unpopularity:n.不受欢迎;不得人心;
There you could actually see a slip away from the United States over the coming years. 在接下来的几年中,你将看到他们逐渐背弃美国。
slip away:逃走;悄悄溜走;
The US election matters a lot on that one, too. 尽管美国大选会对那里会产生巨大的影响。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Africa, right? 非洲,
A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally. 很多人说接下来十年是非洲的十年。
In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time for a few African countries, those governed well with a lot of urbanization , a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce , entrepreneurship taking off. 在这个G0的世界中,对少数非洲国家而言, 这无疑会是一个令人惊奇的时代。 那些“少数国家”施政良好、同时城市化进程较快, 还有大量富有智慧的国民,那里妇女真正地有活可干, 创业也蓬勃兴起。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; urbanization:n.都市化;文雅化; workforce:n.劳动大军;全体员工; entrepreneurship:n.企业家精神;
But for most of the countries in Africa, it's going to be a lot more dicey : extreme climate conditions, radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity , very poor governance , borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration . 但对于大多数非洲国家, 这无疑是场冒险: 他们要面对极端气候环境、 来自伊斯兰教和基督教的激进主义、 乏善可陈的统治、 无法御敌于国门之外、甚至大量强行吞并……
dicey:adj.不确定的;冒险性的;认命的;危险的; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; radicalism:n.激进主义; Christianity:n.基督教;基督教精神,基督教教义; governance:n.管理;统治;支配; migration:n.迁移;迁徙;转移;移居;
Those countries can fall off the map . 那些国家可能从地图上消失。
off the map:不重要的;不存在的;不易到达的;
So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on between the winners and the losers across Africa. 所以你将会看到巨大的隔阂逐渐产生, 它横贯于非洲的胜利者与失败者之间。
segregation:n.隔离,分离;种族隔离; losers:n.输者,败者:(loser的复数)
Finally, back to the United States. 最后,让我们回归美国。
What do I think about us? 我们怎么看自己的国家的？
Because there are a lot of upset people, not here at TEDx, I know, but in the United States, my God, after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset. 这里有大量对政治失望的人, 当然我知道不会出现在这个TEDx会场里。 但是他们遍布美国,天啊, 在15个月的竞选长跑后我们会变的失望,
upset:adj.沮丧; v.打乱; n.苦恼; (意外的)混乱;
I understand that. 我能理解这个心情。
But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken, we don't trust the establishment , we hate the media." 但是很多人失望地说:“华盛顿变差了”, “我们不相信当权者”,“我们痛恨媒体”,
establishment:n.大型组织;企业;旅馆;权威人士;建立;
Heck , even globalists like me are taking it on the chin. 哎,像我这样的全球主义者,
Heck:n.(英口)同"hell",表示略微烦恼或吃惊; globalists:n.支持全球主义者;
Look, I do think we have to recognize , my fellow campers , that when you are being chased by the bear, in the global context , you need not outrun the bear, you need to only outrun your fellow campers. 注意！我认为我们必须认清, 我们与和我们一同野营的国家伙伴们, 当一同被某头危机巨熊追逐着的时候, 我们不需要跑过那头巨熊, 只需要跑过那些伙伴,让他们成为被吃掉的就好了。
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; campers:n.露营者; v.在野营车中旅行或住宿(camper的三单形式); context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; outrun:v.超过;跑得比…快;从…逃脱;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Now, I just told you about our fellow campers. 现在,我刚刚跟你们分析过, 我们那些伙伴的糟糕情况。
Right? And from that perspective , we look OK. 不是么？从这个角度来看, 我们做的可圈可点。
perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的;
A lot of people in that context say, "Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate . 很多人在现在都说, “我们去赚得美元”,“我们去纽约买房”,
real estate:n.房地产;不动产;
Let's send our kids to American universities." “我们去把我们的孩子送进美国的大学”,
You know, our neighbors are awesome : 众所周知,我们的邻居都很出色:
awesome:adj.令人敬畏的;使人畏惧的;可怕的;极好的;
Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water. 加拿大,墨西哥,还有两滩海水。
You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that? 你们知不知道土耳其做梦都想拥有这样的邻居？
Those are awesome neighbors. 他们确实都是好邻居！
Terrorism is a problem in the United States. 在美国,恐怖主义确实是个问题,
God knows we know it here in New York. 任谁都知道身处纽约的我们知道这些。
But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US. 但对于欧洲而言这更是一个问题。
It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East than it is in Europe. 和欧洲比起来, 中东问题更大了。
These are factors of large magnitude . 这其中有大尺度的因素,
factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; magnitude:n.大小;量级;[地震]震级;重要;光度;
We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it. 我们刚刚接受了一万名叙利亚难民,而且我们对此抱怨不断。
Syrian:adj.叙利亚的;叙利亚人的;叙利亚语的;n.叙利亚人;叙利亚语; complaining:adj.抱怨的;v.抱怨;控诉;(complain的现在分词) bitterly:adv.苦涩地,悲痛地;残酷地;怨恨地;
You know why? Because they can't swim here. 知道为什么么？因为他们没有办法游到这里。
Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees. 对么？我的意思是,土耳其会很乐于看见他们只需接收一万名难民,
The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right? 对于约旦人、德国人和英国人也是,不是么？
That's not the situation. 这不是假设,
That's the reality of the United States. 美国现在就是这样。
Now, that sounds pretty good. 现在,一切似乎都很好。
Here's the challenge. 那么接下来就轮到挑战了。
In a G-Zero world, the way you lead is by example. 在这个G0的世界中,你要领导世界的方式, 就是要当楷模。
If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore, if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade, we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values, we're not going to do it the way we used to, the 21st century is changing, we need to lead by example — be so compelling 如果我们知道,我们不想再担任世界警察角色, 不会再担任全球贸易的建筑师, 那我们会失去担任价值观引领者的角色。 我们的行事作风要变一变了。 21世纪正在改变, 我们需要担起楷模——那是多么多令人向往。
cop:v.遭受;忍受;注意到;n.警察; compelling:adj.引人入胜的; v.强迫; (compel的现在分词)
that all these other people are going to still say, it's not just they're faster campers. 其他国人都仍将引以为豪, 并不是因为他们跑的快,
Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be. 即使巨熊不再追着我们,这里仍是个好地方,
We want to emulate them. 我们想要效仿他们。
emulate:vt.仿真;模仿;尽力赶上;同…竞争;n.仿真;仿效;
The election process this year is not proving a good option for leading by example. 今年的选举,并没有一个很好的候选人 能够引领美国。
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; option:n.选择;可选择的东西;
Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s. 希拉里·克林顿说美国会像90年代那样,
Hillary:n.希拉里(美国国务卿);
We can still be that cheerleader on values. 我们依旧会是价值观引领者,
We can still be the architect of global trade. 我们依旧会是是全球贸易的建筑师,
We can still be the global sheriff. 我们依旧会是世界警察。
And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s. 而唐纳德·特朗普想把我们带回30年代,
Trump:n.王牌;主牌花色;v.出王牌赢(牌);;赢;胜过;打败;
He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right? 他说:“我们的路或者高速公路。你不高兴也得忍耐”,不是么？
lump:n.肿块;(通常为无定形的)块;隆起;笨重的人;v.把…归并一起(或合起来考虑);
Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero, which is that even though the US is not in decline , it is getting objectively harder for the Americans to impose their will, even have great influence,on the global order. 他们两个都没有认清G0世界的根本真理, 这真理就算美国也没有否认: 客观而言一切正变得更加困难, 不论是对外施加意志 还是在世界秩序上取得更大的影响力。
recognizing:v.认识;认出;承认;接受,赞成(recognize的现在分词) fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降; objectively:adv.客观地; impose:v.推行;迫使;强制实行;把…强加于;
Are we prepared to truly lead by example? 我们真的有做好用模范引领世界的准备了么？
What would we have to do to fix this after November, after the next president comes in? 我们应该如何去修正这些错误？ 在11月大选之后？ 在新一任总统进入白宫之后？
Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond . 我们必须面对另一个危机来迫使我们作出反应。
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和;
A depression would do that. 一场全民批驳总统的大失望可以做到,
depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
Another global financial crisis could do this. 或者再一次的全球金融危机也行,
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
God forbid , another 9/11 could do that. 求上帝原谅,再来一次9.11事件也可以。
forbid:v.禁止;不准;不允许;(正式)严禁;
Or, absent crisis, we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges that are growing and growing in the United States, are themselves urgent enough to force our leaders to change, and that we have those voices. 或者,如果没有危机发生, 我们需要认清空洞化、不平等以及新的挑战 正逐渐在美国生根发芽。 我们有足够的紧迫感吗？ 足够到迫使我们的领导人去改变。 民意的声音可以迫使他们改变,
absent:adj.缺席的;缺少的;心不在焉的;茫然的;v.使缺席; hollowing:n.打凹成形(雕塑技法);v.挖空,弄凹(hollow的ing形式); urgent:adj.紧急的;急迫的;
Through our cell phones, individually , we have those voices to compel them to change. 通过我们每个人的电话, 我们用自己的声音去强迫他们改变。
individually:adv.个别地,单独地;
There is, of course, a third choice, perhaps the most likely one, which is that we do neither of those things, and in four years time you invite me back, and I will give this speech yet again. 当然,还有第三种选择, 也是最有可能的选择。 而那个选择就是我们什么都不做, 四年后你们再度邀我过来, 然后我再念一遍稿子。
Thank you very, very much. 谢谢,非常感谢！
(Applause) （掌声）