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HansRosling_2014S-_如何不对世界感到无知_
Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. 汉斯·罗斯林:我会给你们做 三道多项选择题
multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数;
Use this device . Use this device to answer. 用这个装置来回答
device:n.装置;策略;图案;
The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster , how did that change during the last century? 第一个问题是 在过去一个世纪里 每年因自然灾害 死亡的人数 发生了怎样的变化
disaster:n.灾难,灾祸;不幸;
Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole , or did it decrease to less than half? 是翻倍了 还是在全世界范围内总体不变 还是下降了一半呢
as a whole:总的来说; decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置;
Please answer A, B or C. 请选择A B 或C
I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities. 我已经看到很多人回答了这比我在大学里做的时候快得多
They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking. 他们动作很慢 他们一直想啊 想啊
Oh, very, very good. 好 很好
And we go to the next question. 下一个问题
So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years? 在全世界范围内 30岁的女性的 受教育的年限是 七年 五年还是三年
A, B or C? Please answer. A B 还是C 请回答
And we go to the next question. 我们看下一个问题
In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change? 过去20年里 占世界人口多少百分比的人 生活在极端贫困中？
percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day. 极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子
Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve ? 是几乎翻倍了 还是基本维持不变 还是减半了？
more or less:或多或少; halve:vt.二等分;把…减半;
A, B or C?
Now, answers. 现在 公布答案
You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000. 如你所见 全球因自然灾害死亡的人数 你可以从这幅图里看到 从1900年到2000年
disasters:n.灾难(disaster的复数);
In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption , whatever, droughts . 1900年 每年有接近50万人 死于自然灾害 洪水 地震 火山喷发 其他 干旱
volcanic:adj.火山的;猛烈的;易突然发作的;n.火山岩; eruption:n.爆发,喷发;火山灰;出疹; droughts:n.[气候]干旱(drought的复数);旱灾灾情;
And then, how did that change? 然后 发生了怎样的变化呢
Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. Gapminder对瑞典公众进行了调查
This is how they answered. 他们是这样回答的
The Swedish public answered like this: 瑞典公众的回答是这样的
Swedish:adj.瑞典的;瑞典语的;瑞典人的;n.瑞典语;瑞典人;
Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved . 50%的人认为翻倍了 38%的人认为没太大变化 12%的人认为减半了
halved:v.对半分开;均分;把…减半(halve的过去式和过去分词);
This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down, and it goes to the Second World War, and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half. 对于灾害研究人员来说这是最理想的数字 然后上下有所浮动 然后到了二战 之后就开始一路下滑 下降至远低于一半
The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know. 这个世界 相比数十年前而言 在保护人们免受自然灾害方面 的能力已经强了太多
capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的;
So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this. 只有12%的瑞典人知道这一点
Swedes:n.瑞典人(Swede的复数);
So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps . 所以我去了趟动物园问了黑猩猩同样的问题
chimps:n.(非洲的)黑猩猩;
(Laughter) (Applause) (笑声)(掌声)
The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random , so the Swedes answer worse than random. 黑猩猩才不看晚间新闻 所以它们 是随机选择的所以瑞典人的正确率还不如随机
random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地;
Now how did you do? 现在来看看你们做的怎样？
That's you. 这是你们的答案
You were beaten by the chimps. 你们被黑猩猩打败了
(Laughter) (笑声)
But it was close. 但很接近了
You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough. 你们的正确率比瑞典人高了三倍 但这还不够
You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes. 你们不应该拿自己跟瑞典人比
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较;
You must have higher ambitions in the world. 你们对于世界的野心肯定不止于此
ambitions:n.追求的目标;野心;志向;抱负;(ambition的复数)
Let's look at the next answer here: women in school. 来看下一个答案女性所受的学校教育
Here, you can see men went eight years. 这里 你可以看到男性是八年
How long did women go to school? 女性所受的学校教育年限是？
Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint , doesn't it? 瑞典人是这么回答的 你从这里能总结出规律了 是吧
hint:n.提示;暗示;迹象;窍门;v.暗示;透露;示意;
The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? 正确的答案很可能是 最少瑞典人选择的那个 对吧
(Laughter) (笑声)
Let's see, let's see. Here we come. 咱们来看看 开始
Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up. 没错 没错 女性几乎赶上了
This is the U.S. public. 这是美国公众的选择
And this is you. Here you come. 然后这里是你们的选择 请看
Ooh.
Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me — 祝贺大家 你们的正确率比瑞典人高一倍 但是你们不需要我来
So how come? I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties. 怎么会这样？ 我想这是因为 大家都知道在有些国家 有些地区 女孩子们依然处于巨大的困境之中
They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting . 她们不被允许去学校 这是令人无法接受的
disgusting:adj.令人不快的;令人厌恶的;v.使作呕;使厌恶;使反感;(disgust的现在分词)
But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live, most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less. 但是在世界上的大部分地方 在大部分人生活的地区 绝大多数国家女孩子们上学的时间 和男孩子们一样长 或多或少
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人: as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然;
That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all . 这并不意味着男女平等已经实现了 完全不是
gender:n.性别; equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值; not at all:毫无;一点也不;不用谢;
They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations , but schooling is there in the world today. 她们依然受到许多严重的束缚 但学校教育已经成为了主流
confined:adj.狭窄的; v.限制(confine的过去式和过去分词); limitations:n.局限性;(限制)因素;边界(limitation的复数形式);
Now, we miss the majority. 现在 我们忽略了大多数情形
When you answer, you answer according to the worst places, and there you are right, but you miss the majority. 当你回答问题时 你以最差的情形为依据 这并不意味着你错了但是你把大多数情形给忽略了
according to:根据,据说;
What about poverty? 关于贫困呢？
Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved, and in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right. 非常明显 贫困率几乎减半 然而在美国 但我们向公众提问时 只有5%的人回答正确
And you? 那你们呢？
Ah, you almost made it to the chimps. 差一点就跟黑猩猩一样了
(Laughter) (Applause) (笑声)(掌声)
That little, just a few of you! 一点点 就差你们中的一小部分人！
There must be preconceived ideas, you know. 先入为主的观念是一定存在的
preconceived:adj.预想的; v.预想(preconceive的过去式和过去分词);
And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty. 很多富裕国家都认为 我们永远无法消除极端贫困
Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened. 他们当然是这么认为的 因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么
The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present. 想要预知未来 必须先了解现在
These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run, and it was started, this project, last year 以上这些问题是由我们负责的Gapminder基金会 在 无知项目 的试运行阶段 所提出的问题中的一部分 这个项目是在去年 由我的老板
phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做; Ignorance:n.无知,愚昧;不知,不懂; Foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立;
by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter) 同时也是我的儿子 奥拉·罗斯林启动的 (笑声)
He's cofounder and director, and he wanted, Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance. 他是联合创始人兼总监 并且他想要 奥拉告诉我 我们在对抗惊人的无知的战斗中 需要更具有系统性
cofounder:n.共同创办人; systematic:adj.系统的;体系的;有系统的;[图情]分类的;一贯的,惯常的; devastating:adj.毁灭性的; v.毁灭; (devastate的现在分词)
So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random, so we have to think about preconceived ideas, and one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution . 试运行结果已经表明 有许多公众的得分比随机选择还要低 所以我们不得不对那些先入为主的观点进行思考 其中一个主要的观点是 关于世界上的收入分配
reveal:v.显示;透露;揭露;泄露;n.揭露;暴露;门侧,窗侧; distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
Look here. This is how it was in 1975. 看这个 这是1975年的数据
It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day — 是人均收入的数值 从每天一美元
(Applause) (掌声)
See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day, and then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars. 看 这里有一个高峰 在每天一美元左右 然后这里还有一个高峰 大约在10到100美元之间
hump:n.驼峰;驼背;圆形隆起物;vi.隆起;弓起;努力;急速行进;vt.使隆起;使烦恼;
The world was two groups. 世界上有两大群体
It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps , the poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between. 像骆驼一样 有两个驼峰 穷人和富人 介于两者之间的人较少
humps:驼峰;驼背;圆形隆起物(hump的复数);
But look how this has changed: 但是我们来看看数字是如何变化的
As I go forward, what has changed, the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge . 随着时间推移 发生了什么样的变化 随着世界人口的增长 两个驼峰开始合并
merge:vt.合并;使合并;吞没;vi.合并;融合;
The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only. 低的驼峰向高的驼峰融合 骆驼死了然后我们得到了一头新的单峰骆驼 只有一个驼峰
merged:adj.(美俚)结了婚的;v.(使)合并,并入;相融;(merge的过去分词和过去式) upper:adj.上面的;内陆的;n.靴面;兴奋剂; dromedary:n.单峰骆驼;
The percent in poverty has decreased . 贫困人口的比例减少了
decreased:v.减少,减小,降低;(decrease的过去分词和过去式)
Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty. 但是依然很惊人 有这么多人仍然生活在极端贫困中
appalling:adj.可怕的;令人震惊的;v.使惊愕;惊吓;(appal的现在分词)
We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now. 大概还有接近10亿人 但这是可以被终结的
The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is, and that is very clearly shown in this question. 我们现在所面临的挑战是 如何摆脱这些观念 去了解大多数人的处境 这一点在以下问题中得到了充分的体现
We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent? 问 世界上有多少比例的一岁儿童 接种了那些我们已经使用了多年的 对抗麻疹以及其他疾病的 疫苗 百分之20 50 还是80?
vaccines:n.[药][计]疫苗; measles:n.[内科]麻疹;风疹;
Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered. 这是美国和瑞典公众的回答
Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is. 看看瑞典的结果 你就该知道正确的答案是什么了
(Laughter) (笑声)
Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country? 该国有个搞全球健康研究的教授 是谁
heck:n.(英口)同"hell",表示略微烦恼或吃惊; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
Well, it's me. It's me. 好吧 是我
(Laughter) (笑声)
It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult. 这非常难 非常困难
(Applause) (掌声)
However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines, and CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there, millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments. 然而 奥拉用于 测量我们所知多少的方法 上了头条 CNN在网站上公布了调查结果 有几百万人回答了这些问题 然后我记得大概有两千多条评论 其中一条是这么说的
approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理;
'"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said. 我打赌新闻界没人能通过这个测试 他说
bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿; media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
So Ola told me, "Take these devices . 然后奥拉跟我说 带上这些设备
devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数);
You are invited to media conferences . 你被邀请参加的是媒体圈的会议
conferences:n.会议(conference的复数形式);
Give it to them and measure what the media know." 分给他们 然后测一测新闻界知道多少
And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media. 女士们 先生们 首先 是来自一场美国媒体会议上的 非正式结果
informal:adj.非正式的;不拘礼节的;通俗的;日常使用的;
And then, lately, from the European Union media. 之后 是来自欧盟媒体的
European Union:n.欧洲联盟;
(Laughter) (笑声)
You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media. 大家看 问题并不在于 人们不读或者不听新闻
The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves. 问题在于连媒体自己都不知道
What shall we do about this, Ola? 我们对此该怎么办呢 奥拉?
Do we have any ideas? 有什么主意吗?
(Applause) (掌声)
Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first, 奥拉·罗斯林:是的 我有个主意 但首先
I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps. 对于你们被黑猩猩打败 我表示很抱歉
Fortunately , I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually. 幸运的是 我有办法安慰你们 因为其实这不是你们的错
Fortunately:adv.幸运地;
Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. 然后 我会给你们提供一些窍门 以便你们以后能够打败黑猩猩
That's basically what I will do. 我接下去会做的基本就是这些
basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant , and it all starts in this place. 首先 来看看为什么我们会如此的无知 一切都始于这个地方
ignorant:adj.无知的;愚昧的;
It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden. 这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 瑞典北部的一座城市
It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem. 我在这个地方长大 这个地方有着一个很大的问题
neighborhood:n.附近;地区;街坊;adj.附近的;
Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well. 实际上 这个地方 跟你们从小所居住的那些地方 存在着一模一样的问题
It was not representative . Okay? 那就是不具备典型性
representative:n.代表; adj.典型的;
It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet. 他让我对于“其他人是如何生活的” 的看法是带有很强烈的偏见的
biased:adj.有偏见的;结果偏倚的,有偏的;
So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle . 所以这是“无知拼图”的第一块
puzzle:n.谜;疑问;智力游戏;不解之谜;v.迷惑;使困惑;
We have a personal bias. 我们有个人偏见
personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词;
We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet, and on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem. 我们在各自的社区 和我们所遇见的人身上 所获得经验都是不同的 在此之上 我们还会上学 这就带来了下一个问题
communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数)
Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews, because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions , and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes. 当然 我喜欢学校 但老师们倾向于教授过时的世界观 因为这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的 现在 尽管不带有任何的恶意 他们又将这些知识教给了学生 还有书 在这个瞬息万变的世界里 那些印刷出来的书 当然也是过时的
outdated:adj.过时的;旧式的;v.使过时(outdate的过去式和过去分词); describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形; intentions:n.目的,意向,意图;打算;(intention的复数)
And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date . 并且没有一个有效的措施 能使教材与时俱进
up to date:adj.最新的;最近的;现代的;
So that's what we are focusing on. 所以这就是我们的关注点
So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias. 我们知道的是过时的情况 加上我们的个人偏见
What happens next is news, okay? 接下去就是新闻了 对吧？
An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational . 一个杰出的记者很清楚 要如何选题才能上头条 人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻
journalist:n.新闻工作者;报人;记日志者; sensational:adj.轰动的;耸人听闻的;非常好的;使人感动的;
Unusual events are more interesting, no? 不寻常的事件才更有意思 不是吗？
And they are exaggerated , and especially things we're afraid of. 然后他们会夸大其词 尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情
exaggerated:adj.夸张的,言过其实的;v.夸张,夸大(exaggerate的过去分词和过去式) especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden. 一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击 这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期
So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from. 我们很难摆脱 这三类歪曲的消息来源
skewed:adj.歪斜的;曲解的; sources:n.来源;出处;起源;根源;原因;v.(从…)获得(source的第三人称单数和复数)
They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas, and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition . 它们对我们狂轰滥炸 并且用许多奇怪的观点武装来我们的思维 在此基础上 再加上一项人类独特的功能 我们的直觉
bombard:vt.轰炸;炮击;n.射石炮; intuition:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识;
It was good in evolution . 直觉对进化是有利的
evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进;
It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast. 它帮助我们很快的进行 归纳和总结
generalize:vt.概括;推广;使...一般化;vi.形成概念; jump to conclusions:妄下结论;
It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none, and we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average. 帮助我们夸大我们所惧之事 当所惧之事没有发生时我们就会寻找其中的因果关系 然后我们会获得莫名的自信 比如我们都自信自己是最好的司机 高于平均水平
seek:v.寻求;寻找;谋求; causality:n.因果关系; illusion:n.幻觉,错觉;错误的观念或信仰; confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的;
Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better." 每个人都会回答: 没错 我的车开的更好
Okay, this was good evolutionarily , but now when it comes to the worldview , it is the exact reason why it's upside down . 好吧 这对进化来说是件好事 但是 当涉及到世界观时 这恰恰是导致结论颠倒的原因
evolutionarily:进化上; worldview:n.世界观; upside down:adj.颠倒的;乱七八糟的;
The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around, and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength. 有些趋势在上升而不是下降 有些则相反 在这个例子中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们 并且这逐渐成为了我们的弱点 而不是优势
trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it? 这应该是我们的优势所在的 不是吗？
supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式)
So how do we solve such problems? 那么我们该如何解决这类问题呢？
First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it. 首先 我们要进行衡量 然后我们再来纠正
So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance. 这里指的衡量 是我们能够明白 造成无知的规律是什么
We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world, and the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development, such as climate, endangered species , human rights, gender equality, energy, finance . 试运行是去年启动的 现在我们很肯定的是 在全球范围内 我们对许多东西是无知的 我们的想法是 将此扩展到关系到全球发展的所有领域 或者维度 比如气候 濒危物种 人权 性别平等 能源 金融
encounter:v.遭遇,邂逅;遇到;n.遭遇,偶然碰见; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢; domains:n.域,域名;领域;网域(domain的复数形式); dimensions:n.规模,大小; endangered:v.使遭危险;危及;危害;(endanger的过去分词和过去式) species:n.[生物]物种;种类; finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费;
All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts. 每个行业都会有一些真相 并有一些组织正在努力扩大 大众对于这些真相的认知度
sectors:n.部门; v.把…划成扇形; organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构; awareness:n.意识,认识;明白,知道;
So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF, and asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know? 所以我联系了其中的一些 像世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织和联合国儿童基金会 我问他们 “有哪些你们所熟知的事 你认为公众是不知道的？”
contacting:v.联系,联络(contact的现在分词) Amnesty International:n.大赦国际;
Okay, I gather those facts. 好了 我收集到了如下事实
Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts. 想像一下 一张很长的清单大概列举了250项
And then we poll the public and see where they score worst. 然后我们对公众进行调查 由此知道哪些项目得分是最低的
poll:n.投票; v.获得(票数); adj.当事人一方作成的;
So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans, and we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results. 然后我们获得了一个短一点的清单 其结果令人震惊 比如之前汉斯给出的一些例子 我们可以轻而易举的给出 这类令人震惊的结果
Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it? 好了 对于这张短一点的清单我们可以做些什么？
Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate , a global knowledge certificate , which you can use, if you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency , to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable . 我们把它变成了一张“知识证书” 一张全球知识证书 可供你使用的 如果你是一个大型组织 一所学校 大学 或者新闻通讯社 用来验证你自己具有全球化的知识体系
certificate:n.证明;证明书;合格证书;文凭;v.发给结业证书;(尤指)发给职业培训证书; news agency:n.通讯社; certify:v.证明;保证; knowledgeable:adj.知识渊博的,有知识的;有见识的;聪明的;
Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees . 本质上来说 我们不会聘用 那些得分和黑猩猩一样高的人
chimpanzees:n.[脊椎]黑猩猩(chimpanzee的复数);
Of course you shouldn't. 当然 你也不应该
So maybe 10 years from now, if this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge. 所以也许10年之后 如果这个项目获得成功 你将不得不在面试中 写出这些全球知识
interview:n.接见,采访;面试,面谈;v.采访;接见;对…进行面谈;
So now we come to the practical tricks. 现在我们来谈谈实用的技巧
practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课;
How are you going to succeed? 要如何才能做到？
There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports. 当然 有一种方法 就是你通宵达旦的 阅读各种报告 并把所有的知识点都记在心里
That will never happen, actually. 实际上 这是不可能发生的
Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen. 连汉斯都不会相信这种事情会发生
People don't have that time. 人们没那么多时间
People like shortcuts , and here are the shortcuts. 人们喜欢捷径 现在 捷径来了
shortcuts:n.近路;捷径;快捷方式(图标);(shortcut的复数)
We need to turn our intuition into strength again. 我们要再次把我们的直觉变成一种优势
We need to be able to generalize. 我们要有能力去概括
So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb. 现在我会给向家展示一些技巧 以此将误解转变成为 指导意见
misconceptions:n.迷思概念;错误的想法;
Let's start with the first misconception. 我们从第一个误解开始
This is very widespread . 这是一个广泛流传的误解
widespread:adj.普遍的,广泛的;分布广的;
Everything is getting worse. 所有的事都在朝更坏的方向发展
You heard it. You thought it yourself. 你听说过 你自己也是这么想的
The other way to think is, most things improve . 从另一个角度想一想其实大多数事情都在变好
improve:v.改进;改善;
So you're sitting with a question in front of you and you're unsure . You should guess "improve." 所以当你面前出现了一个问题 而你不太确定答案时 你应该猜“进步”
unsure:adj.不确定的;不肯定的;没有自信的;
Okay? Don't go for the worse . 好吗？ 别选坏的那个
for the worse:恶化;向坏的方面转化;
That will help you score better on our tests. 这会帮助你在我们的测试中获得更高的分数
(Applause) (掌声)
That was the first one. 这是第一点
There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. 穷人和富人之间的 贫富差距正在拉大
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开;
It's a terrible inequality. 非常的不平等
Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump. 是的 这是个不平等的世界 但是当你对照数据时 会发现只有一个驼峰
unequal:adj.不平等的;不规则的;不胜任的;n.不等同的事物;
Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle." 对吗？ 所以如果你觉得不确定 就选“大部分人在中间”
That's going to help you get the answer right. 这会帮助你正确的回答问题
Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters. 现在 下一个先入为主的观点是 发达国家和人民需要在非常富裕的情况下 社会才能得以发展 例如让女孩子上学 或者抵御自然灾害
No, no, no. That's wrong. 不不不 这是错误的
Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school. 看 处于中间的那一大块驼峰 已经解决了女孩上学的问题
So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this," 所以如果你不确定 就选 ”大部分已经实现了“
like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things. 例如电力 女性教育 这一类的问题
electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪;
They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize. 这些只是指导意见 所以并不适用于所有情况 但这能帮你进行总结概括
apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
Let's look at the last one. 我们来看看最后一个
If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous. 如果有什么 没错 这张照片很赞 鲨鱼很危险
No — well, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics , that is what I'm saying. 其实不是 话虽不错 但是没那么严重 从全球的数据来看 这是我想说的
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks. 其实 我本人非常害怕鲨鱼
So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions, maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem. 当我看到那些关于我所害怕的东西的提问时 比如地震 其他宗教 比如我害怕恐怖分子和鲨鱼 任何让我感到害怕的东西 你很有可能会夸大问题的严重性
as soon as:一…就; assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现;
That's a rule of thumb . 这是指导意见之一
rule of thumb:手工业方式;靠经验估计;经验法则;拇指规则;单凭经验来做的方法;
Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. 当然 有些危险的事物确实会造成严重的后果
Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think. 因鲨鱼致死的人非常少这才是你应有的思维方式
With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this. 有了以上四条技巧 你很有可能会取得比黑猩猩更好的成绩 因为黑猩猩无法做到这些
They cannot generalize these kinds of rules. 他们无法总结概括这些技巧
And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay? 希望我们能够改变你的世界 然后我们一起来打败黑猩猩 好吗
(Applause) （掌声）
That's a systematic approach. 这是一个系统的方法
Now the question, is this important? 那么现在问题来了 这很重要吗
Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school. 是的 这对理解贫穷 极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要 以及如何让女孩子们上学
When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it. 当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时我们才能理解这些问题本身
But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale? 这很重要吗
I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason. 我想说是的 非常非常重要 同样的理由
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地;
If you have a fact-based worldview of today, you might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future. 如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的 那么你才可能会有机会去预测 将来会发生什么
We're going back to these two humps in 1975. 我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值
That's when I was born, and I selected the West. 也就是我刚出生的时候 我选择了西方国家
That's the current EU countries and North America . 也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家
North America:n.北美洲;
Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are. 我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较 关于富裕程度
compares:v.比较;对比;(compare的第三人称单数)
These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation. 这些是能够负担得起 坐飞机出国度假的人
afford:v.给予,提供;买得起; abroad:adv.在国外;到海外;adj.往国外的;n.海外;异国; airplane:n.飞机;
In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America. 1975年的时候 只有30%的人 是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区
But this has changed, okay? 但是情况已经变了
So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014. 首先 我们来看看当今的情况 2014年
Today it's 50/50. 现在是一半一半
The Western domination is over, as of today. 西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了
domination:n.控制;支配;
That's nice. So what's going to happen next? 很好 那么接下去会发生什么呢？
Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved? 你看到那个高峰了吗？ 你看到它是如何变化的吗？
I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund , website. 我做了一个小试验我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站
Monetary:adj.货币的;财政的; Fund:n.基金;资金;存款;v.投资;资助;
They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita . 他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测
forecast:n.预测;预报;v.预测;预报; per capita:adj.每人的;人均的;
So I can use that to go five years into the future, assuming the income inequality of each country is the same. 所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化 假设各国的贫富差距保持不变
assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
I did that, but I went even further. 除此以外 我还做了进一步的预测
I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen. 我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测 同样的变化速度就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样
Let's move into the future. 让我们移步未来
In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest. 2020年 57%来自非西方国家
In 2025, 63 percent.
2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market. 2030年 68% 到了2035年西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超
outnumbered:v.(在数量上)压倒,比…多;(outnumber的过去式和过去分词) consumer:n.[经]消费者;[生,生态]消费者;
These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future. 这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测
projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数)
Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe. 73%的富裕消费者 将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区
consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数)
So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future. 所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识证书” 来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策
Thank you very much. 非常感谢
(Applause) （掌声）
Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!