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HansRosling_2012S-_宗教与新生儿_

I'm going to talk about religion. 我打算谈一些关于宗教的事情
But it's a broad and very delicate subject, so I have to limit myself. 但是宗教是一个宽泛,并且非常微妙的事物 所以我必须给我自己一个范围。
delicate:adj.精致的,微妙的,脆弱的,熟练的,柔和的;
And therefore I will limit myself to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality . 因此我将研究限定为 宗教和性之间的某些联系
sexuality:n.[胚]性别;性欲;性征;性方面的事情(比如性行为或性能力);
(Laughter) 笑声
This is a very serious talk. 这是一个相当严肃的谈话
So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. 所以我会谈到,我脑海中人间最美好的事物
It's when the young couple whisper , "Tonight we are going to make a baby." 这便是,当一对年轻夫妇在对方耳边呢喃 “今晚,我们生个孩子吧!”
whisper:v.耳语;低语;私语;小声说;n.耳语(声);低语(声);私语(声);轻柔的声音;
My talk will be about the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman. 我的谈话将会是 宗教对每个妇女生育孩子数量的影响。
impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
This is indeed important, because everyone understands that there is some sort of limit on how many people we can be on this planet. 事实上,这是一件很重要的事情。 因为,每个人都明白 在某种程度上 地球上能容纳的人口数量是有限制的
And there are some people who say that the world population is growing like this -- three billion in 1960, seven billion just last year -- and it will continue to grow 另外,有些人 声称世界人口数量是这样增长的 1960年,地球上有30亿人口 但仅仅去年人口便达到70亿 而且,它将会继续增长
because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, and it may continue like this. 因为,一些宗教阻止妇女少生孩子。 所以,世界人口可能这继续下去
To what extent are these people right? 但是,这些人的说法在什么范围内是正确的呢
extent:n.程度;范围;长度;
When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. 当我出生的时候,世界上的儿童数量不到10亿 但是2000年的今天,世界上的儿童数量将近20亿
What has happened since, and what do the experts predict will happen with the number of children during this century? 那么发生了什么事呢 专家们预测本世纪的儿童数量 会导致将来发生什么事情呢
predict:v.预报;预言;预告;
This is a quiz . What do you think? 这是个问题。你们有什么看法呢
quiz:n.小测验;知识竞赛;v.盘问;查问;询问;
Do you think it will decrease to one billion? 你认为儿童数量会降低到10亿吗
decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置;
Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? 还是它会保持目前的状况,在这个世纪末仍然是20亿呢?
Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, or will it continue in the same fast rate and be four billion children up there? 儿童的数量会每年都增加,并且持续15年吗? 或者它会保持与现在相同的增速 直到世界上有40亿的儿童呢?
I will tell you by the end of my speech. 在我的演讲结束时,我会告诉你答案
But now, what does religion have to do with it? 但是现在,宗教和儿童数量有什么关系呢。
have to do with:与…有关;
When you want to classify religion, it's more difficult than you think. 当你想把宗教分门别类时 这将是比你想象的要更为复杂的工作
classify:vt.分类;分等;
You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. 当你查询维基百科时,你看到的第一张图是这样的
Wikipedia:维基百科;
It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, but that's not detailed enough. 它把这个世界分为亚伯拉罕诸教和东方宗教 但是,这描述的不够详细
Eastern:adj.东方的;向东的;东部的;东方国家的;n.东方人;东正教信徒;
So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. 因此,我们继续看维基百科,便看到这张图
But that subdivides Christianity , Islam and Buddhism into many subgroups , which was too detailed. 但是这张图把基督教、伊斯兰教和佛教细分为了 很多的子群 显得又太臃肿了
Christianity:n.基督教;基督教精神,基督教教义; Buddhism:n.佛教; subgroups:n.亚组,[数]子组(subgroup的复数形式);副全宗;
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, and it looks like this. 所以,我们我们用Gapminder这个软件做了一个自己的图 它是这个样子的
Each country's a bubble . 每个国家是一个小泡泡
bubble:n.泡;气泡;肥皂泡;一点感情;v.起泡;冒泡;洋溢着(某种感情);
The size is the population -- big China, big India here. 泡泡的大小代表着人口数量——人口大国中国,人口大国印度在这里
And the color now is the majority religion. 然后,现在的颜色代表大多数人信仰的宗教
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人:
It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people say that they belong. 它代表超过50%的人 声称他们信仰这个宗教
It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. 印度、中国和相邻的亚洲国家信仰东方宗教,
neighboring:adj.邻近的;接壤的;v.邻近;使接近;位于…附近;(neighbor的现在分词)
Islam is the majority religion all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East , 伊斯兰教是一个大多数人信仰的宗教 从大西洋一直到中东
Atlantic:adj.大西洋的;巨人阿特拉斯的;n.大西洋; Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部);
Southern Europe and through Asia all the way to Indonesia . 欧洲南部并且穿过亚洲 一直到印度尼西亚
Indonesia:n.印尼,印度尼西亚(东南亚岛国);
That's where we find Islamic majority. 那里就是我们看到大多数人都信仰伊斯兰教的地方
Islamic:adj.穆斯林的;
And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. 接着,大多数信仰基督教的区域。我们看到这些国家,他们的泡泡是蓝色
And that is most countries in America and Europe, many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. 大多数信仰基督教的国家在美洲和欧洲 非洲的很多国家以及亚洲的一小部分
The white here are countries which cannot be classified , because one religion does not reach 50 percent or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. 这里的白色泡泡的国家是不能被归类的 因为宗教的信仰人数达不到国家总人口的50% 或者是数据有一些问题或其他的一些原因
classified:adj.机密的; v.将…分类; (classify的过去分词和过去式)
So we were careful with that. 我们对待宗教信仰总是小心翼翼的
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. 因此,现在稍微容忍下我们的简单化处理,一会儿我将带你,通过这个视角来看待这个问题
simplicity:n.朴素;简易;天真;愚蠢;
This is in 1960. 这里现在是1960年
And now I show the number of babies per woman here: two, four or six -- many babies, few babies. 然后现在,我会在这里告诉你每个妇女生育孩子的数量 2个,4个,或者6个 很多孩子,很少孩子
And here the income per person in comparable dollars. 然后这里是用美元作参照的人均收入
comparable:adj.可比较的;比得上的;
The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first before you get few babies. 之所以这样做是因为很多人说,你必须先变得富有 之后才会少生孩子
So low income here, high income there. 因此,这里是低收入,这里是高收入
And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. 在1960年,确实是这样的 你必须先成为一个富有的基督徒,然后才能少生孩子
The exception was Japan. 日本是个例外
exception:n.例外;异议;
Japan here was regarded as an exception. 这里日本被当作一个例外
Otherwise it was only Christian countries. 其他的都是信仰基督教的国家
But there was also many Christian countries that had six to seven babies per woman. 但是,有很多的信仰基督教的国家 每个妇女生育6到7个孩子
But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. 但是他们在拉丁美洲或者非洲
Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区);
And countries with Islam as the majority religion, all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, irregardless of the income level. 主要信仰伊斯兰教的国家 在他们中的几乎所有国家,每个妇女都生育六到七个孩子 不管处于什么样的收入水平
irregardless:adj.不管;adv.不管(等于regardless);
And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level. 除了日本,所有的东方国家都处于相同的水平
Now let's see what has happened in the world. 现在,我们来看看世界发生了什么变化
I start the world, and here we go. 我从世界整体开始,现在出发!
Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, but the number of babies per woman is falling? 现在是1962年--你发现虽然这些国家比以前只是富裕了一小点 但是妇女生育孩子的数量却下降了很多吗?
Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. 看看中国,他们的出生率下降的非常迅速
fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直;
And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. 然后,处于不同收入水平的、所有的穆斯林国家的出生率都下降了 在中等收入范围内的基督教国家也发生了相同的变化
And when we enter into this century, you'll find more than half of mankind down here. 当我们进入21世纪时 你会发现,一半以上国家的人口生育率会下降到这里
enter into:进入;讨论;成为…的一部分;研讨;分享;体谅; mankind:n.人类;男性;
And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman. 到2010年之前,事实上,我们当中80%的人 生活的国家里,每个妇女只生育两个左右的孩子。
(Applause) (掌声)
It's a quite amazing development which has happened. 这是一个不可思议的发展
(Applause) (掌声)
And these are countries from United States here, with $40,000 per capita , 然后这些国家,从这里的美国开始 人均收入为$40,000
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) per capita:adj.每人的;人均的;
France, Russia, Iran, 法国,俄罗斯,伊朗
Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, 墨西哥,土耳其,阿尔及利亚(北非国家)
Indonesia, India and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States and the same amount of babies per woman. 印度尼西亚,印度 然后一直到孟加拉国和越南 这两个国家的人均年收入不到美国的5%。 但是和美国的妇女平均生育率一样
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman is surprisingly good in all countries. 我会告诉你,关于妇女平均生育孩子数量的数据 在所有国家都是惊人的好
surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地
We get that from the census data. 我们是通过人口普查得到这样的数据的。
census:vt.实施统计调查;n.人口普查,人口调查;
It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful . 这些数据中,没有一个是不可信的
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数) doubtful:adj.可疑的;令人生疑的;疑心的;不能确定的;
So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. 因此,我们可以总结出来 想要少生孩子,你不必非要先变得富有
conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定)
It has happened across the world. 全世界都是这样
And then when we look at religions, we can see that the Eastern religions, indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion that has more than three children. 接下来,我们来看看宗教 我们能看到东部的宗教 事实上,没有一个信仰宗教的国家 妇女生育三个以上孩子的
Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, you see countries all the way. 然后,以伊斯兰为主要宗教的国家和基督教国家 你看到这些国家都是一直这样的
Whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之;
But there's no major difference. 但是,没有重要的差别
There's no major difference between these religions. 在这两个宗教之间没有很大的区别
There is a difference with income. 但是在收入上却是有差别的
The countries which have many babies per woman here, they have quite low income. 妇女平均生育孩子数量很高的国家 他们的收入都很低
Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. 他们当中的大部分国家都在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲
sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区;
But there are also countries here like Guatemala , like Papua New Guinea , like Yemen and Afghanistan . 但是这里也有一些国家,这里 比如说危地马拉。比如说巴布亚新几内亚 比如也门和阿富汗
Guatemala:n.危地马拉(拉丁美洲国家);危地马拉人; Papua:n.巴布亚岛(新几内亚岛NewGuinea的旧名); Guinea:n.几内亚;基尼(英国旧时金币名); Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts , that they don't have fast population growth. 很多人认为,阿富汗(这里)和刚果 都经历过残酷的战争冲突, 他们不会有迅速的人口增长
severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的; conflicts:n.冲突; v.抵触;
It's the other way around. 但是,事实却相反
In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates that have the fastest population growth. 在当今世界,正是那些死亡率最高的国家 有着最快的人口增长率
mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运;
Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. 因为一个儿童的死亡,都被更多儿童的出生抵消了
compensated:v.补偿;弥补;给(某人)赔偿(或赔款);(compensate的过去式和过去分词)
These countries have six children per woman. 这些国家每个妇女生育6个孩子
They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. 他们有着令人伤心的死亡率:每个妇女的孩子有一半会夭折
death rate:n.死亡率;
But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. 但是30年之后,阿富汗的人口将会从3千万增长到6千万
Congo will go from 60 to 120. 而刚果会从6千万增长到1亿2千万
That's where we have the fast population growth. 这样的国家就是我们人口增长最迅速的地区了
And many think that these countries are stagnant , but they are not. 尽管很多人认为这些国家的人口是停滞不前的,但事实上,它们是增长的
stagnant:adj.停滞的;不景气的;污浊的;迟钝的;
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. 让我来比较下塞内加尔,这个穆斯林(顺服伊斯兰教的神阿拉的人)统治的的国家 和一个基督徒统治的国家,加纳
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较; dominated:v.支配;控制;左右;影响;(dominate的过去式和过去分词)
I take them backwards here to their independence , when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. 我把它们带回到这里,它们刚独立, 这两个国家都在20世纪60年代初的时候
independence:n.独立;独立性;自恃心;独立不羁的精神;
Just look what they have done. 看看它们做了什么
It's an amazing improvement , from seven children per woman, they've gone all the way down to between four and five. 这是一个令人惊奇的进步 从每个妇女生育7个孩子 它们的生育率一直下降到每个妇女生育4到5个孩子
improvement:n.改进,改善;
It's a tremendous improvement. 这是个非常了不起的进步
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的;
So what does it take? 那么,这说明了什么问题呢?
Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. 嗯。我们清楚的知道这些国家到底需要什么
You need to have children to survive. 你需要让孩子活下来
You need to get out of the deepest poverty so children are not of importance for work in the family. 你需要从赤贫中脱离出来 因此,儿童就不是家里的主要劳动力了
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
You need to have access to some family planning . 你需要有条件进行计划生育
family planning:n.计划生育;家庭计划;
And you need the fourth factor , which perhaps is the most important factor. 然后,你需要第四个要素,也可能是最重要的一个要素
factor:n.因素;要素;[物]因数;代理人;v.做代理商;v.把…作为因素计入;
But let me illustrate that fourth factor by looking at Qatar. 就让我来解释下第四个要素 通过对卡达尔的观察
illustrate:v.解释;加插图于;给(书等)做图表;表明…真实;
Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. 这里,是卡塔尔目前的状况,然后这里是孟加拉国目前的状况
If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- it's a quite amazing development which had happened. 如果我把这两个国家带回到他们刚刚独立那年 差不多是同一年,1971年和1972年 这是一个已经发生了的,并且令人惊叹的进步
Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. 看看孟加拉国和卡达尔
With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop in number of babies per woman. 虽然他们的收入差别这么大 但是生育率却几乎同步降低
And what is the reason in Qatar? 那么,卡达尔人口下降的原因是什么呢?
Well I do as I always do. 我就按照我一贯的作法
I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- 我去查询卡塔尔官方授权的数据,去了他们的官方网页
statistical:adj.统计的;统计学的; authority:n.权威;权力;当局; webpage:n.网页;
It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends . 这是个非常不错的网页,我向你们强烈推荐 然后我查阅这个网页--是的,你的确能在这里享受到很多乐趣 他们提供的数据是免费的,我查找到了卡塔尔的社会发展趋势
recommend:v.推荐;介绍;劝告;建议;使受欢迎; provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式) trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
Very interesting. Lots to read. 非常有趣,有很多值得阅读的地方
I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. 我查找到了新生儿出生率,接着我看到了整个国家的妇女生育孩子数量
fertility:n.多产;肥沃;[农经]生产力;丰饶;
These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: "Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force." 这些都是卡塔尔官方机构的学者和专家, 他们说最重要的因素是: 提高首次结婚的年龄 提高卡塔尔妇女的受教育水平 整合更多的妇女去工作
scholars:n.学者们(scholar的复数); agency:n.代理,中介;代理处,经销处; factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; educational:adj.教育的;有关教育的;有教育意义的 integrated:adj.综合的; v.整合; (integrate的过去式和过去分词)
I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. 我非常同意这个说法,科学也非常同意这个说法
This is a country that indeed has gone through a very, very interesting modernization . 这就是一个国家的确经历过的事 一个非常,非常有意思的现代化
modernization:n.现代化;
So what it is, is these four: 那么这个现代化是什么呢,它是以下四点:
Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force and family planning should be accessible . 儿童应该活下来,他们也不应该被需要工作 妇女应该接受教育,同时要参加工作 必须进行易于实施的计划生育
accessible:adj.易接近的;可进入的;可理解的;
Now look again at this. 现在,我们再来看一下这个
The average number of children in the world is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. 世界的新生儿平均出生数量 就像哥伦比亚----它目前是2.4个
There are countries up here which are very poor. 比这个数高的国家都非常贫穷
And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. 这些地方就非常需要计划生育,让更多的儿童存活下来
survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物;
I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. 在上次梅琳达·盖茨的TED演讲上,我就强烈建议过这个观点
And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. 然后在这里,生育率下降,这里的很多国家,每个妇女生育孩子的数量低于2个
So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, it's two. 那么现在,回到我一开始给你们的小测试,然后揭晓答案 它的答案是第二个
We have reached peak child. 我们已经到达了儿童数量的峰值
peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的;
The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. 这个世界上的儿童数量不会再增长了
We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. 虽然我们还在讨论油价是否已经达到最高点 但是我们的儿童数量确实已经达到最高点了
debating:v.讨论,辩论;仔细考虑;思考;盘算;(debate的现在分词) definitely:adv.清楚地,当然;明确地,肯定地;
And the world population will stop growing. 然后,世界人口的数量将会停止增长
The United Nations Population Division has said it will stop growing at 10 billion. 联合国人口署也曾说过,世界人口的数量 将在100亿的时候停止增长
United Nations:n.联合国; Division:n.师;分配;分开;分歧;
But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow? 但是为什么儿童的数量没有增长,而世界人口的数量还增长呢?
Well I will show you here. 好的,我将在这里向你们展示。
I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. 我要用这些你们装笔记本的纸盒子。
They are quite useful for educational purposes. 对于教育目的而言,它们是很有用的
Each card box is one billion people. 每个纸盒子代表10亿人
And there are two billion children in the world. 然后世界上总共有20亿儿童
There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. 在15岁到30岁之间的人总共有20亿
These are rounded numbers. 这些都是大概的数字
Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, almost one between 45 and 60. 接着,在30岁到45岁的人有10亿 在45岁到60岁的差不多有10亿
And then it's my box. 接着,就是代表我年纪的盒子了
This is me: 60-plus. 这就是我的:60岁以上的
We are here on top. 我们在这里,顶部的位置
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up ." 那么,接下来要发生的事就是我们所谓的“伟大的补充”
fill-up:n.(英)插在两档节目之间的小节目;充填量;装填物;填满;
You can see that it's like three billion missing here. 你能看到,在这个地方,有30亿的空缺
They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. 他们不是空缺,而是死了,并且再也不会出生
Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born than there were during the last 30 years. 因为在1980年之前,世界上的新生人口相对于 近三十年要少很多
So what will happen now is quite straightforward . 那么,现在即将发生的事儿是非常简单明了的。
straightforward:adj.简单的;坦率的;明确的;径直的;adv.直截了当地;坦率地;
The old, sadly, we will die. 那些老人,非常悲伤的,我们会死去
The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. 剩下的你们即将变老,接着,会有20亿儿童出生
Then the old will die. 接着,那些老人又会死去
The rest will grow older and get two billion children. 剩下的人会接着变老,又会有20亿儿童出生
And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children. 接下来,再一次的,那些老人会死去,然后,又会有20亿儿童出生
(Applause) (鼓掌)
This is the great fill-up. 这就是伟大的补充
It's inevitable . 这是不可避免的
inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
And can you see that this increase took place without life getting longer and without adding children? 你会发现虽然人口增加了 但是人的寿命和儿童数量并没有增加
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. 宗教信仰和每个妇女生育孩子的数量并没有太大关系
All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. 这个世界上所有的宗教都是完全可以 宣传他们的价值观,并且来适应这个新世界的。
capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的; maintain:v.维持;保持;维修;保养;坚持(意见); adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. 将来世界上只会有100亿人口 如果最贫穷的人脱离贫困 他们的孩子活下来,他们有条件进行计划生育
That is needed. 那些都是必要的
But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. 但是,不可避免的,世界上将会增加20亿到30多亿的人口
So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. 因此,当你讨论,当你计划 未来人们的资源和能源需求时 为了这个星球上的人类 你必须为100亿人进行计划
resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数);
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
(Applause) (掌声)