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HansRosling_2010S-_探讨全球人口增长_
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I still remember the day in school when our teacher told us that the world population had become three billion people. |
我仍然记得我还在上学的时候 老师告诉我们 世界的人口总数已经达到了 30亿人口。 |
And that was in 1960. |
那还是在1960年。 |
And I'm going to talk now about how world population has changed from that year and into the future. |
现在我要谈谈 从那个年代到现在 世界人口是怎样变化的。 |
But I will not use digital technology as I've done during my first five TEDTalks. |
但是我不会像我上五次谈话那样 使用数码科技。 |
digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
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Instead, I have progressed. |
相反的,我进步了。 |
And I am, today, launching a brand new analog teaching technology that I picked up from IKEA: this box. |
我在今天,会展示 一个崭新的模拟教学科技 这是我从宜家买来的, 这个箱子。 |
launching:n.发射;开办;起飞;v.开始从事,发起,发动;(launch的现在分词) brand new:adj.崭新的;最近获得的; analog:n.[自]模拟;类似物;adj.[自]模拟的;有长短针的;
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This box contains one billion people. |
这个箱子包含十亿人口。 |
And our teacher told us that the industrialized world, 1960, had one billion people. |
我的老师告诉我 在工业化的世界,1960年, 有十个亿的人口。 |
industrialized:adj.工业化的;v.使工业化;将…组成产业(industrialize的过去分词);
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In the developing world, she said, they had two billion people. |
在发展中的国家,她说道, 有两亿人口 |
And they lived away then. |
而且他们的生活相对隔离。 |
There was a big gap between the one billion in the industrialized world and the two billion in the developing world. |
在10亿的工业化世界 和20亿的发展中世界 有一个巨大的鸿沟。 |
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开;
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In the industrialized world, people were healthy, educated, rich, and they had small families. |
在工业化世界, 人们健康, 良好教育,富有, 并且有较小的家庭。 |
And their aspiration was to buy a car. |
他们的心愿 就是买辆车。 |
aspiration:n.渴望;抱负;送气;吸气;吸引术;
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And in 1960, all Swedes were saving to try to buy a Volvo like this. |
在1960年,整个瑞典都在存钱 去买一辆像这样的沃尔沃。 |
Swedes:n.瑞典人(Swede的复数);
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This was the economic level at which Sweden was. |
这就是当时瑞典的经济水平。 |
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
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But in contrast to this, in the developing world, far away, the aspiration of the average family there was to have food for the day. |
但是相对的, 在遥远的发展中国家, 中等家庭的愿望则是 每天能够有食物。 |
contrast:n.对比;对照;反差;明显的差异;v.对比;对照;形成对比;
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And they were saving to be able to buy a pair of shoes. |
而他们存钱 是想买一双鞋。 |
There was an enormous gap in the world when I grew up. |
在我所长大的世界里 是有一个巨大的鸿沟。 |
enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的;
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And this gap between the West and the rest has created a mindset of the world which we still use linguistically when we talk about "the West" |
这个在西方世界和其他国家的鸿沟 所创造的世界观 就是我们今天口头上 提到“西方世界” |
mindset:n.心态;倾向;习惯;精神状态; linguistically:adv.语言的;语言学方面;
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and "the Developing World." |
和“发展中国家。” |
But the world has changed, and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it as it now is. |
但是世界已经变化了, 是时候去升级这个世界观了, 去对世界分类,以及了解这个分类。 |
overdue:adj.过期的;迟到的;未兑的; upgrade:v.使升级;提升;改良品种;n.升级;上升;上坡;adv.往上;adj.向上的; taxonomy:n.分类学;分类法;
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And that's what I'm going to show you. |
这就是我将要向你们展示的。 |
Because since 1960, what has happened in the world up to 2010 is that a staggering four billion people have been added to the world population. |
因为自从1960年 到2010年间,所发生的是 一个惊人 的四十亿人口 加入到了世界人口中。 |
staggering:adj.惊人的; v.蹒跚; (stagger的现在分词)
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Just look how many. |
看看有多少。 |
The world population has doubled since I went to school. |
从我上学到现在 世界人口已经翻倍了。 |
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West. |
而且当然的,西方的经济也增长了。 |
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy , so the Western population moved over to here. |
很多公司的经济都增长了, 所以西方的人口就移动到这。 |
economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
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And now their aspiration is not only to have a car. |
现在人们所想的不是买辆车。 |
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination and they want to fly. |
现在他们想买的是一个在遥远地方的假期 而且要飞去。 |
remote:adj.偏远的;偏僻的;遥远的;久远的;
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So this is where they are today. |
所以他们现在在这。 |
And the most successful of the developing countries, they have moved on, you know. |
然而这里最成功的发展中国家, 他们也移动了,你知道的。 |
And they have become emerging economies , we call them. |
他们成了我们口中的新兴经济体。 |
emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
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And they are now buying cars. |
现在他们也买车了。 |
And what happened a month ago was that the Chinese company, Geely, they acquired the Volvo company. |
而且就在一个月以前 一个叫做吉利的中国公司 收购了沃尔沃公司。 |
acquired:adj.习得的; v.获得; (acquire的过去分词和过去式)
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And then finally the Swedes understood that something big had happened in the world. |
这样瑞典在终于意识到 世界发生了一些大的变化。 |
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
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(Laughter) |
(笑) |
So there they are. |
所以他们现在在这。 |
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here |
悲惨是,在这里的二十亿 |
tragedy:n.悲惨的事;不幸;灾难;悲剧作品;
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[are still] struggling for food and shoes, they are still almost as poor as they were 50 years ago. |
还在为食物和鞋子挣扎, 他们仍然和50年前 一样的贫穷。 |
The new thing is that we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here, which are also becoming emerging economies, because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated , and they already also have two or three children per woman, as those [richer also] have. |
区别就在 我们有最多的30个亿在这里, 正在成为新兴经济体, 因为他们颇为健康,相对受过教育, 他们也有两到三个小孩 平均每个妇女。 |
pile:n.桩;堆;摞;桩柱;v.堆放;摞起;叠放;放置; relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; well-educated:adj.受过良好教育的;
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And their aspiration now is, of course, to buy a bicycle, and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also. |
他们现在的愿望是 显然的,买一辆自行车, 他们过一段时间还会想要摩托车。 |
But this is the world we have today. |
但是这就是 我们现在所有的世界。 |
No longer any gap. |
没有鸿沟。 |
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest, to the very richest over here, is wider than ever. |
但是贫穷的还是非常贫穷, 和富有的相比,差距更大了。 |
But there is a continuous world from walking, biking, driving to flying -- |
但是这是一个渐变的世界 从走路,自行车, 到汽车,到飞行 |
continuous:adj.连续的,持续的;继续的;连绵不断的;
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[there are] people on all levels. |
所有水准都有。 |
And most people tend to be somewhere in the middle. |
大多数人是在这中间。 |
This is the new world we have today in 2010. |
这是我们在2010的 世界。 |
And what will happen in the future? |
那未来会发生什么? |
Well, I'm going to project into 2050. |
好的,我现在要穿越到 2050年。 |
I was in Shanghai recently . |
我最近在上海。 |
recently:adv.最近;新近;
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And I listened to what's happening in China. |
我也听到了中国所发生的事情。 |
And it's pretty sure that they will catch up, just as Japan did. |
显然他们会像日本一样 迎头赶上。 |
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with one to two or three percent. |
未来--这个会长 一到两个百分比。 |
projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数)
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[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent. And then they will land up here. |
这个会长7,8个。他们会前进到这里。 |
They will start flying. |
他们也会开始常坐飞机。 |
And these lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries, they will also forge forwards economically . |
而这些 中低收入国家,新兴经济体国家, 他们会在经济上进一步增长。 |
forge:v.锻造; n.锻压; economically:adv.经济地;在经济上;节俭地;
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And if, but only if, we invest in the right green technology -- so that we can avoid severe climate change, and energy can still be relatively cheap -- then they will move all the way up here. |
如果 但是只有如果 我们投入到正确的绿色科技 -- 我们才能避免严重的气候变化, 能源才能相对的便宜 -- 这样他们才会都移到这里来。 |
invest:v.投资;(把资金)投入;投入(时间、精力等);授予; severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
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And they will start to buy electric cars. |
他们才会开始购买 电子汽车。 |
electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的;
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This is what we will find there. |
这就是我们在这里发现的。 |
So what about the poorest two billion? |
那么最贫穷的那20亿呢? |
What about the poorest two billion here? |
最贫穷的20亿会怎么样呢? |
Will they move on? |
他们会怎样移动呢? |
Well, here population [growth] comes in because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman, family planning is widely used, and population growth is coming to an end. |
好吧,这里人口会先增加 因为每个妇女平均有2到3个小孩, 家庭计划会被普遍采用, 人口增长会走到尽头。 |
family planning:n.计划生育;家庭计划;
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[But here among the poorest], population is growing. |
这里,人口增长。 |
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades, increase to three billion. |
所以这两亿,在下面的几十年里, 会增长到30亿。 |
And they will thereafter increase to four billion. |
然后会继续 增长到40亿。 |
thereafter:adv.其后;从那时以后;
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There is nothing -- but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen -- that can stop this [growth] from happening. |
任何事情 除非有一个我们都没有见过的核战争 才能阻止这个增长。 |
nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
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Because we already have this [growth] in process . |
因为我们已经在这个进程中了。 |
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
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But if, and only if, |
但是如果,只有如果 |
[the poorest] get out of poverty , they get education, they get improved child survival , they can buy a bicycle and a cellphone and come [to live] here, then population growth will stop in 2050. |
他们能脱离贫穷, 他们能受教育,能提高儿童成活率, 他们才能买自行车,手机,他们会移动到这儿来, 然后人口增长 会在2050停止。 |
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; improved:adj.改良的:v.改进:改善(improve的过去分词和过去式) survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物; cellphone:n.蜂窝式便携无线电话;大哥大;
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We cannot have people on this level looking for food and shoes, because then we get continued population growth. |
我们不能让这些人在这个水准 还在寻找食物和鞋子, 因为那样我们的人口会继续增长。 |
And let me show you why by converting back to the old-time digital technology. |
现在让我来告诉你为什么 用我老式的 数码科技来告诉你们。 |
converting:v.(使)转变,转换,转化;可转变为;归附;(convert的现在分词) old-time:adj.从前的;旧式的;资深的;
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Here I have on the screen my country bubbles . |
在屏幕上显示的 是国家泡泡。 |
bubbles:n.泡; v.起泡; (bubble的第三人称单数和复数)
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Every bubble is a country. The size is population. |
每一个泡泡代表一个国家。大小是人口。 |
The colors show the continent . |
颜色是不同的大洲。 |
continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的;
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The yellow is the Americas; dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe; green is the Middle East; and this light blue is South Asia. |
黄色是美国。 深蓝是非洲,棕色是欧洲, 绿色是中东, 浅蓝是亚洲。 |
That's India and this is China. Size is population. |
这是印度,这是中国。大小是人口。 |
Here I have children per woman, two children, four children, six children, eight children -- big families [versus] small families. |
这边我们有每个妇女所有的小孩, 2个,4个,6个和8个-- 大的家庭,小的家庭。 |
The year is 1960. |
这是1960年。 |
And down here, child survival, the percentage of children surviving childhood up to starting school. |
这里,儿童存活率, 每个儿童存活的百分比 一直到学龄前儿童。 |
percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; childhood:n.童年;幼年;孩童时期
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60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90, and almost 100 percent, as we have today in the wealthiest and healthiest countries. |
60%,70%,80%,90%, 以及几乎100%,就跟现今 在最富有和最健康的国家里一样。 |
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960. |
看,这就是我老师口中的1960年的世界。 |
One billion Western world here, high child-survival, small families. |
西方国家一个亿, 高儿童存活率,小家庭。 |
And all the rest , the rainbow of developing countries, with very large families and poor child survival. |
和所有其他, 其他五彩斑斓的发展中国家, 都有大的家庭 和很低的儿童存活率。 |
all the rest:其他所有相关信息; rainbow:n.彩虹
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What has happened? I start the world. Here we go. |
发生了什么?我来发动世界,开始了。 |
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing? |
你可以看到随这时光的流逝,儿童存活率增加了吗? |
They get soap, hygiene , education, vaccination and penicillin . |
他们有肥皂,清洁剂,教育 假期,和青霉素。 |
hygiene:n.卫生;卫生学;保健法; vaccination:n.接种疫苗;种痘; penicillin:n.盘尼西林(青霉素);
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And then family planning. Family size is decreasing . |
然后家庭计划。家庭大小降低了。 |
decreasing:v.(使大小、数量等)减少,减小,降低;(decrease的现在分词)
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[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease . |
他们有大概90%的存活率,然后家庭变小了。 |
decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置;
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And most of the Arab countries in the Middle East is falling down there [to small families]. |
然后大多数中东的阿拉伯国家 都降低到这里。 |
Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部);
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Look, Bangladesh catching up with India. |
看,孟加拉国国赶上了印度。 |
[All] emerging economies [in the] world joins the Western world with good child survival and small family size. |
整个新兴经济体 加入了西方世界 有着高的儿童存活率 和较小的家庭大小。 |
But we still have the poorest billion. |
但是我们还是有这最贫穷的十亿。 |
Can you see the poorest billion, those [two] boxes I had over here? |
你可以看到那最贫穷的十亿, 那些那边的箱子? |
They are still up here. |
他们还在那里。 |
And they still have a child survival of only 70 to 80 percent, meaning that if you have six children born, there will be at least four who survive to the next generation. |
他们的儿童存活率还是 70%到80%。 也就是说,如果你有6个小孩, 最后只有4个能存活 变成下一代。 |
And the population will double in one generation. |
而且人口会在下一代翻倍。 |
So the only way of really getting world population growth to stop is to continue to improve child survival to 90 percent. |
所以能阻止 世界人口增长 的唯一办法是提高儿童存活率 到90%。 |
That's why [health] investments by Gates Foundation , |
那就是为什么盖茨的基金, |
investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数) Foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立;
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UNICEF and aid organizations , together with national government in the poorest countries, are so good. |
儿童基金会和急救机构 和贫穷国家的国家政府 是很好的组织。 |
organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构;
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Because they are actually helping us to reach a sustainable population size of the world. |
因为他们实际上 在帮助我们 达到一个能持续发展的人口数。 |
sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的;
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We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things. |
我们可以停在90个亿,如果我们能做正确的事情。 |
Child survival is the new green. |
儿童存活率是一个崭新的梦想。 |
It's only by child survival that we will stop population growth. |
只有通过提高儿童存活率 我们才能阻止人口增长。 |
And will it happen? |
这会发生吗? |
Well, I'm not an optimist , neither am I a pessimist . |
好吧,我不是乐观主义者, 我也不是悲观主义者。 |
optimist:n.乐观主义者;乐天派; pessimist:n.悲观主义者;
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I'm a very serious "possibilist." |
我是一个十分严肃的“可能性主义者” |
It's a new category where we take emotion apart, and we just work analytically with the world. |
这是一个新词,当我们把我们的个人情绪抛开, 我们就只专注于分析世界。 |
category:n.种类,分类;[数]范畴; emotion:n.强烈的感情;激情;情感; analytically:adv.分析地;解析地;
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It can be done. |
就可以被做到。 |
We can have a much more just world. |
我们可以做到更多。 |
With green technology and with investments to alleviate poverty, and with good global governance , the world can become like this. |
伴随这绿色科技 和对减轻贫困的投资 和全球控制, 世界能变成这样。 |
alleviate:v.减轻,缓和; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; governance:n.管理;统治;支配;
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And look at the position of the old West. |
再来看看旧日的西方世界所占据的位置。 |
Remember when this blue box was all alone, leading the world, living its own life. |
记住这个蓝色的箱子一直都是单独地 带领这世界,生活在自己的生活中。 |
This will not happen again. |
这种情况不会再继续下去了。 |
The role of the old West in the new world is to become [part of] the foundation of the modern world -- nothing more, nothing less. |
旧西方世界在新世界的地位 会是一个现代化世界 的基础-- 不比这个多,也不比这个少。 |
But it's a very important role. |
但是是一个十分重要的角色。 |
Do it well and get used to it. |
做好这个角色,而且要适应这个角色。 |
get used to:开始习惯于
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Thank you very much. |
十分谢谢你们。 |
(Applause) |
(掌声) |