返回首页

HansRosling_2009I-_东方崛起_
Once upon a time , at the age of 24, 很久以前, 当我还是24岁之时,
Once upon a time:从前(常用于故事的开头)
I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore. 我尚是一名位于班加罗尔的圣约翰医学院的学生。
I was a guest student during one month of a public health course. 当时,我是一名为期一个月的 公共卫生课程的旁听生。
guest student:旁听生;
And that changed my mindset forever. 我的思维模式从那时起开始改变。
mindset:n.心态;倾向;习惯;精神状态;
The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. 这是一门好课程,但改变我思维模式的 不是这门课程本身。
content:n.内容,目录;满足;容量;adj.满意的;vt.使满足;
It was the brutal realization , the first morning, that the Indian students were better than me. 而是因在第一天早晨, 我发现印度学生的表现 居然比我还要优秀,这个残酷的现实。
brutal:adj.残忍的;野蛮的,不讲理的; realization:n.实现;领悟;
(Laughter) （笑声）
You see, I was a study nerd . 如你所见,我是一个书呆子。
nerd:n.呆子;讨厌的人;
I loved statistics from a young age. 当我年轻时,我对数据有狂热的喜好。
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
And I studied very much in Sweden. 而且我在瑞典学习时很用功。
I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended. 我曾在所有课程中都名列前茅。
upper:adj.上面的;内陆的;n.靴面;兴奋剂;
But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter. 但在圣约翰时,我却名落孙山了。
And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. 我不得不承认,印度学生 比瑞典学生要刻苦努力多了。
They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times. 他们会三番四次地 阅读他们的课本。
In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying. 而在瑞典,读完一次后,我们就去夜夜笙歌了。
(Laugher) （笑声）
And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed. 这对于我的 意义是在于 我生而知之的思维方式 第一次 被改变了。
personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词;
And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. 我意识到 西方世界或许 不再是霸权国家了。
dominate:vt.控制;支配;占优势;在…中占主要地位;vi.占优势;处于支配地位;
And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience. 我想你们都大概有这种体验。
It's that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world. 那种遇到某个人使你的世界观 发生天翻地覆地改变的经历。
It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny. 这些都不是数据,虽然我试着让它听起来有趣。
And I will now, here, onstage , try to predict when that will happen -- that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be, over thousands of years. 现在, 我,将在这个台上, 来预测亚洲 什么时候会 重夺其导向世界的 主导地位, 正如过去数千年一般。
onstage:adj.台上的;台上演出的;adv.上台;上场; predict:v.预报;预言;预告; regain:vt.再次得到;重新获得,恢复;返回;n.恢复;收复;收回 dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性;
And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the West. 而且我会尽可能地 得到一个精准的预测 来说明 印度和中国的人均收入 何时会达到西方的水平。
And I don't mean the whole economy , because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. -- that's a piece of cake , with one billion people. 我不是指整体的经济实力, 对于印度来说 赶超英国的整体经济实力 是小菜一碟,因为他们拥有十亿人口。
economy:n.经济;节约;理财; a piece of cake:轻松的事;
But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States? 但是我所想见得是 印度和中国的 人均收入 什么时候会追上英国和美国的水平？
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
But I will start with a historical background. 首先,我会介绍一下历史背景。
historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的;
And you can see my map if I get it up here. No? 请问你们可以看到我的数据图么？可以吗？
I would start at 1858. 我会从1858年开始。
1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. 1858年是西方科技水平 大跃进的一年。
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; advancement:n.前进,进步;提升;
That was the year when Queen Victoria was able, for the first time, to communicate with President Buchanan, through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable . 在这一年,维多利亚皇后 可以和布坎南总统 通过跨大西洋电报电缆 来交流,这是有史以来的第一次。
Transatlantic:adj.大西洋彼岸的,横渡大西洋的;美国的; Telegraphic:adj.电信的;电报的;电报机的; Cable:n.电缆; v.打电报; (用锚链,缆索等)系住;
And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically. 他们,是第一对跨大西洋的推客。
(Laughter) （笑声）
(Applause) （鼓掌）
And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria. 而我,通过神奇的谷歌和网络 找到了布坎南总统 回发给维多利亚皇后的电报。
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; telegram:n.电报;v.用电报发送;v.发电报;
And it ends like this: "This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization , liberty and law throughout the world." 它的结尾时这样的:“这个电报 将是一种可向世界传播宗教、 文明、自由和法律的神奇工具。”
fantastic:奇异的,空想的 instrument:n.仪器;工具;乐器;手段;器械; diffuse:adj.弥漫的;散开的;v.扩散;传播;漫射; civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明; liberty:n.自由;许可;冒失; throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom. 这句话很动听。可是,我很好奇 他说的是何种自由,以及是何人的自由。
curious:adj.好奇的,有求知欲的;古怪的;爱挑剔的;
And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858. 这势必让我们回想起 在1858年时,世界各地都发生了什么。
Because 1858 was also watershed year in the history of Asia. 因为1858年 同时也是亚洲历史的 分水岭。
watershed:n.(美)流域;分水岭;集水区;转折点;adj.标志转折点的;
1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces. 1858年, 印度所爆发的 民族大起义 被英军镇压了。
courageous:adj.有胆量的,勇敢的; uprising:n.起义;升起;adj.升起的;v.起义(uprise的ing形式);升起; occupation:n.职业;占领;占用;工作;
And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination . 印度因此继续忍受了89年的外人统治。
domination:n.控制;支配;
1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces. 中国在1858年 再一次在鸦片战争中输给了英国。
Opium:n.鸦片;麻醉剂;adj.鸦片的;
And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty , were allowed to trade freely in China. 因此在签订的（不平等）条约中 说明外国人在中国可自由通商。
treaty:n.条约,协议;谈判;
It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods. 这意味着用鸦片换取中国商品。
In 1858 in Japan, was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S. 日本在1858年, 被迫签订安政条约 以及承认美日贸易优先权。
favorable:adj.有利的;良好的;赞成的,赞许的;讨人喜欢的;
And they were threatened by those black ships there, that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year. 因为他们在这几年 被东京港里的黑船威胁。
harbor:n.港口;港湾;(比喻)避难所;[军]坦克掩蔽场;v.停泊;包含;隐匿;怀抱(恶意);
But, Japan, in contrast to India and China maintained its national sovereignty . 但日本仍拥有国家主权, 不像印度和中国那样。
contrast:n.对比;对照;反差;明显的差异;v.对比;对照;形成对比; maintained:v.维持;维修;保养;固执己见;(maintain的过去式和过去分词) sovereignty:n.主权;主权国家;君主;独立国;
And let's see how much difference that can make. 让我们来看看这将带来多大的差异。
And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country. 我将带着这些泡泡 回到Gapminder软件上, 在这里,每个泡泡都代表着一个国家。
bubbles:n.泡; v.起泡; (bubble的第三人称单数和复数)
The size of the bubble here is the population. 人口是由泡泡的大小所代表。
On this axis , as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar. 一般横轴都代表人均收入。
axis:n.轴;轴线;轴心国; comparable:adj.可比较的;比得上的;
And on that axis I have life expectancy , the health of people. 竖轴则代表人均寿命。
life expectancy:预期寿命;
And I also bring an innovation here. 今天,我又一次带来了一件发明。
innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological , recyclable version here, in green India. 为了绿色印度,我将激光束转换成 一根生态友好型木棒。
transformed:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);(transform的过去分词和过去式) beam:n.光线; v.发射(电波); ecological:adj.生态的,生态学的; recyclable:adj.可回收利用的;可再循环的;
(Applause) （鼓掌）
And we will see, you know. 正如你们所料一样。
Look here, 1858, India was here, 1858年,印度和中国是在这里,
China was here, Japan was there, 日本则在那里。
United States and United Kingdom was richer over there. 美国和英国 则更是在那边。
United Kingdom:n.英国;
And I will start the world like this. 世界将从这样开始。
India was not always like this level. 印度以前不是这样的。
Actually if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China was even above that of Europe. 让我们回想百年以前的 印度和中国, 那时,两国的人均收入 是比欧洲的水平还高。
But 1850 had already been many many years of foreign domination, and India had been deindustralized. 然而,在1850年时,两国已饱受多年的外国侵略, 何况印度的工业能力还被削弱。
And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom. 而经济正在发展的国家 则是英美两国。
And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy, and Japan was starting to catch up. 在十九世纪末时,他们的国民身体素质也得以改善, 至于日本则开始奋起直追。
India was trying down here. 偏偏印度还深陷泥沼。
Can you see how it starts to move there? 你们可以看见他的确是在动吗？
But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan. 国家主权完整使日本受益匪浅。
And Japan is trying to move up there. 日本一直在尝试赶上去。
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better, 新世界到了。英美两国的国民
United Kingdom, United States. 身体素质更加强化了。
But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War . 但要小心,一战的脚步已经近了。
approaching:v.靠近,接近;接洽;建议;要求;(approach的现在分词) First World War:n.第一次世界大战(1914至1918年间,主战场在欧洲);
And the First World War, you know, we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. 正如你所料,在一战期间 会爆发很多经济问题和导致死亡。
economical:adj.经济的;节约的;合算的;
United Kingdom is going down. 英国在走下坡路。
And now comes the Spanish flu also. 西班牙流感又接踵而来。
And then after the First World War, they continue up. 一战后,他们继续向上攀升。
Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, 印中两国由于仍被外来政权统治着,
India and China are down in the corner. 因此他们还在下面的角落里。
Not much has happened. 无甚变化。
They have grown their population but not much more. 只是人口有所增加罢了。
In the 1930's now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy. 现在到了三十年代, 日本正处于战争时期, 国民寿命普遍低下。
And the Second World War was a really terrible event, also economically for Japan. 二战对日本来说,尤其在经济上, 是一场噩梦。
economically:adv.经济地;在经济上;节俭地;
But they did recover quite fast afterwards. 但战后他们恢复的相对迅速。
And we are moving into the new world. 我们正迈向新世界。
In 1947 India finally gained its independence . 印度终于于1947年 成独立国家。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; independence:n.独立;独立性;自恃心;独立不羁的精神;
And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there. 他们可以升起他们自己的国旗并且成为一主权国家, 却仍举步维艰。
(Applause) (鼓掌)
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world. 在1949年,新中国的诞生 使全世界都为之惊奇。
emergence:n.出现,浮现;发生;露头;
And what happened? 之后发生了什么？
What happens in the after independence? 在独立之后发生了什么？
You can see that the health started to improve . 正如你所见,国民的健康有所进步。
improve:v.改进;改善;
Children started to go to school. 儿童们有学上。
Health services were provided . 医疗设施也逐渐出现。
provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式)
This is the Great Leap Forward , when China fell down. 现正是大跃进时期,中国摔了一大跤。
Leap Forward:跃进;向前跳;快速发展;
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung . 这是由毛泽东统一计划的。
Tung:n.桐;桐树;
China recovered. Then they said, " Nevermore , stupid central planning." 中国恢复元气后, 他们则说:“前事不忘,后事之师。”
Nevermore:adv.决不再;永远不再;
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. 中国又日趋上升,印度则是吊车尾。
And they were catching up indeed. 他们都正迎头赶上。
And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy. 两国的国民健康大大改善, 然后经济水平仍有待提高。
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left. 现在来到1978年,毛泽东已去世, 新一代领导出现。
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. 而邓小平正冉冉上升。
And he said, "Doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." 他说:“不管 黑猫白猫,抓到老鼠 就是好猫。”
as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然;
Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. 因为这正是 这两只大猫想做的。
And you can see the two cats being here, 正如你们所知,中印两只大猫
China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know. 是想要抓住那边的老鼠。
And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy. 因此他们决定不仅要发展教育和公共卫生, 也要开始发展经济。
And the market reformer was successful there. 改革开放是成功的。
reformer:n.改革家;改革运动者;改良者;
In '92 India follows with a market reform. 在1992年印度也开始了经济改革。
And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them. 他们走的很近, 而且两国颇多相似之处, 而且差异不多。
similarity:n.类似;相似点;
And here they march on. And will they catch up? 他们齐头并进。可是能迎头赶上么？
This is the big question today. 这是现今世界的一个大问题。
There they are today. 今天,他们处在哪里。
Now what does it mean that the -- 这说明了——
(Applause) (掌声)
the averages there -- this is the average of China. 他们的平均水平,这是中国的平均水平。
If I would split China, look here, 假如将中国分开来看,
split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
Shanghai has already catched up. 看,上海已经赶上了。
Shanghai is already there. 上海已经在上面哪里。
And it's healthier than the United States. 而且市民的平均寿命比美国还长。
But on the other hand , Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there. 然而,贵州,中国最穷的 一个内陆省,在那里。
on the other hand:另一方面; inland:n.内地;内陆;adj.内陆的;内地的;国内的;adv.在内地;向内地;向内陆;在内陆;
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural , the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. 假如我将贵州分成城市和乡下两部分, 贵州乡下仍继续下滑。
urban:adj.城市的;都市的;城镇的;都市音乐的; rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的;
You see these enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth. 在中国的迅速经济发展下, 隐藏着极大的问题。
enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的; inequity:n.不公平,不公正; midst:n.当中,中间;prep.在…中间(等于amidst);
And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India. 我们再来看看印度, 我们会看到另一种不平等。
The geographical , macrogeographical difference is not so big. 从地理的角度上来看,差距不大。
geographical:adj.地理的;地理学的;
Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India. 北方邦,是印度的最大邦, 比起其他邦来说是较为贫穷落后的。
Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. 克拉拉邦则处于领先地位, 而且就公共卫生一项来说已赶上了美国, 偏偏不包括经济。
And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward. 这里,孟买的所在邦,马哈拉斯特拉邦, 正向前迈进。
forging:n.锻造;锻件;伪造;v.锻造;打制(forge的现在分词);
Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. 在印度,不平等是体现在邦内, 而非邦与邦之间。
inequities:n.不公平待遇(inequity的复数形式);
And that is not a bad thing, in itself. 这并不是一件坏事。
If you have a lot inequity, macrogeographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term, to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center relatively close to where poor people are living. 假如在宏观地理上有太大差距, 这将会成为一长期隐患, 但在每个区域都有一经济发展中心, 并且离穷人居住区近的话,这将会更好。
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States. 看,这还有一不平等的问题。看这里,美国。
(Laughter) (笑声)
Oh, they broke my frame . 他已将我的框框撑破。
frame:n.框架; v.设计; adj.有木架的;
Washington, D.C. went out here. 华盛顿特区已跑到那里。
My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there is a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system. 我在Gapminder的朋友想我将这展现给你们 因为现在白宫有了新主人 而且很关心公共卫生体系。
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词)
And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C. 况且我也明白他的心情,因为华盛顿特区
is so rich over there but they are not as healthy as Kerala. 居民收入已非常之高 但却比克拉拉邦的居民还短命。
It's quite interesting isn't it? 很有趣是吧。
(Applause) (鼓掌)
I can see a business opportunity for Kerala, helping fix the health system in the United States. 我帮克拉拉邦找到一生意, 就是去帮美国建设他们的公共卫生体系。
(Laughter) (笑声)
(Applause) (鼓掌)
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. 现在来看看全球。图例则在这里。
legend:n.传奇;说明;图例;刻印文字;
And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them, is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world." 你们看到这两只巨猫在跋涉向前, 在他们之间 或在他们前面, 正是现时的全球经济, 这就是托马斯·弗里德曼所说的“世界是平的”。
giant:n.巨人;伟人;巨兽;adj.巨大的;特大的 emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
You can see that in health and education a large part of the world population is putting forward, but in Africa, and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there is still people with low health and very low economy. 你可以看见,很大一部分的 世界人口中的卫生和教育体系正在进步, 只是在非洲,或者其他地方, 如中国的贵州乡下, 仍然有许多人处在困境之中。
We have an enormous disparity in the world. 现今世界贫富差距悬殊。
disparity:n.不同;不一致;不等;
But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast. 但大多中间阶层国家都进步的很快。
Now, back to my projections . 好,回到我的预测。
projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数)
When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph. 但两国何时能迎头赶上？我们必须使用传统图表。
conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的;
I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there. 竖轴代表着人均收入, 穷富递进相增。
And then time here, from 1858 回溯到1858年
I start the world. 世界由此开始。
And we shall see what will happen with these countries. 让我们来观察下世界将会如何改变。
You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here. 中国正处于半殖民半封建时期 而他们国民收入已降低至印度的水准。
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. 同一时间,英美则越来越富有。
Whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之;
And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K. 二战后,英国被美国赶超。
But independence is coming here. 与此同时,独立的曙光则洒在中印两国头上。
Growth is starting, economic reform. 经济经过改革后开始增长。
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014. 增长速率加快,并且加上国际货币组织的预测 这正是两国于2014年会到达的水平。
Now, the question is, "When will the catch-up take place ?" 现时的问题则是:“他们何时会赶上？”
catch-up:与…并驾齐驱(towith);扰乱(说话人);赶上;追上;跟上; take place:发生;举行;
Look at, look at the United States. 再来回看下美国。
Can you see the bubble? 看的见那些泡泡？
The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. 不是我的泡沫, 而是经济泡沫。
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. 看,雷曼兄弟的门槛在这。
doorstep:n.门阶;
You see it came down there. 看这里的下滑趋势。
And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know. 英国也因受影响而下滑。
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. 这些国家走的并不是阳光大道。
They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. 反而是崎岖不平的。
humble:adj.谦逊的; vt.使谦恭;
And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia. 是故关注经济增长的人们 则转移视线至亚洲。
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. 我们将日本也加进来。日本是日趋上升。
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较;
You see, Japan did it like that. 日本是这样发展的。
We add Japan to it. 日本也加入美英的行列。
And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place. 毫无疑问,他们追的很快 且赶上了。
Can you see here what Japan did? 看看日本怎么做的。
Japan did it like this, until full catch-up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies. 直到完全赶上,日本是这样发展的, 接下来就紧随着高收入国家的脚步。
But the real projections for those ones, 不过我做出的预测
I would like to give it like this. 则是这样的。
Can be worse, can be better. 是福祸相依的。
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. 未来是难以预测的。
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past. 偏偏有一位历史学家告诉我过去更难预测。
(Laughter) (笑声)
I think I'm in a difficult position here. 我在左右为难中。
Inequalities in China and India 中印两国的最大障碍
Inequalities:n.[数]不等式;不均等,不平衡;不平坦(inequality的复数形式);
I consider really the big obstacle because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity is what will create a domestic market, what will avoid social instability , and which will make use of the entire capacity of the population. 就是不平等, 要使百业具兴 则定要创建一国内市场 来避免社会的不稳定 并能使广大的群众 都投身其中。
obstacle:n.障碍;障碍物;阻碍;绊脚石; prosperity:n.繁荣,成功; domestic:n.佣人;家佣;家庭纠纷;家庭矛盾;adj.本国的;国内的;家用的;家庭的; instability:n.不稳定(性);基础薄弱;不安定; make use of:使用,利用; capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力;
So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure , and electricity is really what is needed in India and China. 所以中印两国绝需建设 完备的医疗,教育,电力等基础设施。
investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数) infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪;
You know the climate. We have great international experts within India telling us that the climate is changing, and actions has to be taken, otherwise China and India would be the countries most to suffer from climate change. 气候是一全球问题。有一位印度的专家 指出全球气候正在变化 我们必须采取行动, 否则,中印两国 则会首当其冲。
And I consider India and China the best partners in the world in a good global climate policy . 我想中国和印度应是在 气候问题上的最佳伙伴。
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
But they ain't going to pay for what others, who have more money, have largely created, and I can agree on that. 但他们不应 为那些造成这些恶果的国家 背黑锅,而我认为也应这样做。
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地;
But what I'm really worried about is war. 但我最担心战争爆发。
Will the former rich countries really accept a completely changed world economy, and a shift of power away from where it has been the last 50 to 100 to 150 years, back to Asia? 那些现今的大国 能接受世界经济体系的改变 和承认已有50至100年,甚至是霸主地位的移交么 甚至是150年的 的霸主地位的移交么？
shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换;
And will Asia be able to handle that new position of being in charge of being the most mighty , and the governors of the world? 抑或亚洲能够 承受住作为世界霸主的 压力和重担吗？
handle:n.[建]把手;柄;手感;口实;v.处理;操作;运用;买卖;触摸; in charge of:负责;主管; mighty:adj.强而有力的;巨大的;非凡的;adv.非常;很;极其;
So, always avoid war, because that always pushes human beings backward . 因此一定要避免战争, 因为战争是人类倒退的罪魁祸首。
backward:adj.向后的;反向的;发展迟缓的;adv.向后地;相反地;
Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided, get ready for a world in equity. 若是这些问题都能被解决, 那么就准备迎来一平等的世界吧。
Because this is what seems to be happening. 因为这正是历史的潮流。
And that vision that I got as a young student, 1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes , is just about to happen. 这是我尚是一名学生时, 于1972年,得知印度人比瑞典人要好的多时, 所知道的未来。
vision:n.视力;美景;幻象;想象力;v.想象;显现;梦见; Swedes:n.瑞典人(Swede的复数);
And it will happen precisely the year 2048 in the later part of the summer, in July, more precisely, the 27th of July. 更准确些,这 将会在2048年发生, 会在季夏,7月份发生, 更精准些,是7月27日。
(Applause) (鼓掌)
The 27th of July, 2048 is my 100th birthday. 2048年7月27日 是我的期颐之时。
(Laughter) (笑声)
And I expect to speak in the first session of the 39th TED India. 而我则希望能在第一节 第39届TED印度大会上演讲。
session:n.会议;(法庭的)开庭;(议会等的)开会;学期;讲习会;
Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much. 请及时预定座位！谢谢。
bookings:n.登记;演出合同;预订票的出售(booking的复数);
(Applause) (鼓掌)