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HansRosling_2009-_汉斯_罗斯林谈hiv_新数据和震撼的图表_
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| (Applause) |
(掌声) |
| AIDS was discovered 1981, the virus -- 1983. |
艾滋病发现于1981年,HIV病毒是1983年 |
| These Gapminder bubbles show you how the spread of the virus was in 1983 in the world, or how we estimate that it was. |
这张气泡图会展示 1983年后病毒在世界范围内扩散的情况 这是我们估计的状况 |
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bubbles:n.泡; v.起泡; (bubble的第三人称单数和复数) estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本;
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| What we are showing here is -- on this axis here, I'm showing percent of infected adults. |
我们今天要展示的是 这条（Y）轴,是被感染的成年人比例 |
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axis:n.轴;轴线;轴心国; infected:adj.带菌的; v.传染; (infect的过去分词和过去式)
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| And on this axis, I'm showing dollars per person in income. |
而这条（X）轴,是人均收入（美元） |
| And the size of these bubbles, the size of the bubbles here, that shows how many are infected in each country, and the color is the continent . |
而这些气泡的大小,这些气泡 代表每个国家被感染的人数 各大洲用颜色区分 |
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continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的;
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| Now, you can see United States, in 1983, had a very low percentage infected, but due to the big population, still a sizable bubble. |
现在来看看美国,在1983年 感染率还非常低 但因为人口基数大,这个气泡还是很大 |
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United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; sizable:adj.相当大的;大小相当的;
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| There were quite many people infected in the United States. |
也就是说在美国有很多人被感染 |
| And, up there, you see Uganda . |
再上面是乌干达 |
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Uganda:n.乌干达(非洲国家);
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| They had almost five percent infected, and quite a big bubble in spite of being a small country, then. |
感染率接近百分之五 虽然国家不大,但气泡也不小 |
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in spite of:尽管;不管,不顾;
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| And they were probably the most infected country in the world. |
他们可能是全世界感染率最高的国家 |
| Now, what has happened? |
为什么会这样？ |
| Now you have understood the graph, and now, in the next 60 seconds, we will play the HIV epidemic in the world. |
我想大家现在都能看明白这个图表了 在接下来的60秒里 我们会演示HIV病毒在世界上的传染过程 |
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HIV:n.艾滋病病毒; epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的;
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| But first, I have a new invention here. |
但在这之前,我要先拿出我的新发明 |
| (Laughter) |
(笑声) |
| I have solidified the beam of the laser pointer . |
我把激光笔的光线变成固体了 |
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solidified:adj.凝固的;固化的,变硬的;v.凝固,团结(solidify的过去式和过去分词形式); beam:n.光线; v.发射(电波); pointer:n.指针;指示器;教鞭;暗示;
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| (Laughter) |
(笑声) |
| (Applause) |
(掌声) |
| So, ready, steady , go! |
好,准备,坐稳了,开始！ |
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steady:adj.稳定的; v.使稳定; v.稳定地; n.关系固定的情侣;
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| First, we have the fast rise in Uganda and Zimbabwe . |
最开始是乌干达和津巴布韦的感染率飙升 |
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Zimbabwe:n.津巴布韦(国家名,位于非洲);
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| They went upwards like this. |
像这样一直上升 |
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upwards:adv.向上;在上部;向上游;
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| In Asia, the first country to be heavily infected was Thailand . |
在亚洲,第一个受严重传染的国家是泰国 |
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Thailand:n.泰国(东南亚国家名);
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| They reached one to two percent. |
感染率达到百分之一到二 |
| Then, Uganda started to turn back , whereas Zimbabwe skyrocketed , and some years later South Africa had a terrible rise of HIV frequency . |
然后乌干达开始回落 而津巴布韦一飞冲天 几年后南非的HIV感染率急剧上升 |
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turn back:往回走;阻挡;翻回到; whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; skyrocketed:n.流星烟火;冲天火箭;vi.飞涨,突然高升;vt.使…猛然上涨; frequency:n.频率;发生率;重复率;频繁;
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| Look, India got many infected, but had a low level. |
看这里,印度也有很多人被感染 但总体比率还很低 |
| And almost the same happens here. |
这里也一样 |
| See, Uganda coming down, Zimbabwe coming down, |
看,乌干达下降了,津巴布韦下降了 |
| Russia went to one percent. |
俄罗斯上升到百分之一 |
| In the last two to three years, we have reached a steady state of HIV epidemic in the world. |
在过去的两三年里 世界HIV传染进入了稳定期 |
| 25 years it took. |
从开始到现在花了25年 |
| But, steady state doesn't mean that things are getting better, it's just that they have stopped getting worse. |
但稳定并不意味着情况开始好转 而只是不再恶化而已 |
| And it has -- the steady state is, more or less , one percent of the adult world population is HIV infected. |
稳定情况就是说或多或少 世界成年人口的百分之一感染了HIV病毒 |
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more or less:或多或少;
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| It means 30 to 40 million people, the whole of California, every person, that's more or less what we have today in the world. |
也就是说大约3000万到4000万人 相当于加利福尼亚的所有人口 这就是现在全世界艾滋病患者的大概数量 |
| Now, let me make a fast replay of Botswana. |
我们再快速看一下博茨瓦纳的传染过程 |
| Botswana -- upper middle-income country in southern Africa, democratic government, good economy , and this is what happened there. |
博茨瓦纳 - 南部非洲中上收入国家 民主政府,经济也不错 来看看这里的情况 |
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upper:adj.上面的;内陆的;n.靴面;兴奋剂; middle-income:adj.中等收入的; democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
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| They started low, they skyrocketed, they peaked up there in 2003, and now they are down. |
（感染率）开始很低,然后火箭般窜升 在2003年达到顶峰 现在有所下降 |
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peaked:adj.尖的; v.到达高点,消瘦,竖起(peak的过去式和过去分词形式);
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| But they are falling only slowly, because in Botswana, with good economy and governance , they can manage to treat people. |
但下降的速度很慢 因为博茨瓦纳的经济政治环境不错 可以治疗艾滋病患者 |
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governance:n.管理;统治;支配; treat:v.治疗;处理;招待;款待;n.款待;乐事;乐趣;
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| And if people who are infected are treated , they don't die of AIDS. |
感染者只要接受治疗就不会轻易死于艾滋病 |
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treated:v.以…态度对待;把…看作;(treat的过去分词和过去式)
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| These percentages won't come down because people can survive 10 to 20 years. |
所以这个比例不会下降 因为病毒携带者可以继续活上10年到20年 |
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percentages:n.[数]百分率,百分比;命中率(percentage的复数);
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| So there's some problem with these metrics now. |
所以这个测量方法现在有点问题 |
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metrics:n.度量;作诗法;韵律学;
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| But the poorer countries in Africa, the low-income countries down here, there the rates fall faster of the percentage infected because people still die. |
但非洲的穷国,下面的这些低收入国家 感染比例下降的很快 因为感染者在不断死亡 |
| In spite of PEPFAR, the generous PEPFAR, all people are not reached by treatment , and of those who are reached by treatment in the poor countries, only 60 percent are left on treatment after two years. |
尽管有总统艾滋病紧急防治救援计划（PEPFAR）,慷慨的PEPFAR 并不是所有人都能得到治疗 贫穷国家中,即使是受到治疗的那些人 两年后也只剩下60%的人还在治疗计划中 |
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generous:adj.慷慨的,大方的;宽宏大量的;有雅量的; treatment:n.治疗;疗法;对待;处理;讨论;
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| It's not realistic with lifelong treatment for everyone in the poorest countries. |
对穷国中的每一个患者 进行终身治疗是不现实的 |
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realistic:adj.现实的;现实主义的;逼真的;实在论的;
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| But it's very good that what is done is being done. |
但已经做的这些治疗毕竟是件好事 |
| But focus now is back on prevention . |
但现在的关注点已经回到了预防上 |
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prevention:n.预防;阻止;妨碍;
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| It is only by stopping the transmission that the world will be able to deal with it. |
只有阻止了传播 我们的世界才会有办法解决艾滋病 |
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transmission:n.传输;传染;播送;发射;广播;传动装置;
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| Drugs is too costly -- had we had the vaccine , or when we will get the vaccine , that's something more effective -- but the drugs are very costly for the poor. |
药物太贵了 -- 要有疫苗就好了 或者知道什么时候会有疫苗,疫苗会有效的多 但药物对穷人来说太贵了 |
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costly:adj.昂贵的;代价高的; vaccine:n.疫苗;牛痘苗;adj.疫苗的;牛痘的; effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象;
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| Not the drug in itself, but the treatment and the care which is needed around it. |
并不是药物本身贵,而是整个治疗过程 以及所需的看护很贵 |
| So, when we look at the pattern, one thing comes out very clearly: you see the blue bubbles and people say HIV is very high in Africa. |
所以,我们看看整个图表 有一件事非常清楚: 你看那些蓝色的气泡 人们会说非洲的HIV携带率很高 |
| I would say, HIV is very different in Africa. |
我得说,HIV在非洲也是不同的 |
| You'll find the highest HIV rate in the world in African countries, and yet you'll find Senegal, down here, the same rate as United States. |
世界上最高的HIV感染率 在非洲国家 但这里也有塞内加尔,下面这里 感染率和美国一样 |
| And you'll find Madagascar, and you'll find a lot of African countries about as low as the rest of the world. |
也有马达加斯加 和其它很多非洲国家 和世界其它地方的感染率一样低 |
| It's this terrible simplification that there's one Africa and things go on in one way in Africa. |
将非洲简单地同一化是很可怕的 认为非洲的所有事情都是一个样 |
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simplification:n.简化;简化的事物;
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| We have to stop that. |
我们不能再这么想 |
| It's not respectful , and it's not very clever to think that way. |
这么想很不尊重 也很不明智 |
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respectful:adj.恭敬的;有礼貌的;
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| (Applause) |
(掌声) |
| I had the fortune to live and work for a time in the United States. |
我有幸在美国生活和工作过一段时间 |
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fortune:n.财富;命运;运气;v.给予财富,偶然发生 for a time:暂时;一段时期;
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| I found out that Salt Lake City and San Francisco were different. |
我发现盐湖城和旧金山就很不一样 |
| (Laughter) |
(笑声) |
| And so it is in Africa -- it's a lot of difference. |
非洲也是一样 -- 各地有很多不同 |
| So, why is it so high? Is it war? |
那,为什么会这么高？因为战争？ |
| No, it's not. Look here. |
不是的。看这里 |
| War-torn Congo is down there -- two, three, four percent. |
饱经战火的刚果在下面 -- 百分之二、三、四的样子 |
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War-torn:adj.遭受战争破坏的;
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| And this is peaceful Zambia, neighboring country -- 15 percent. |
而和平的邻国赞比亚 -- 百分之十五 |
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neighboring:adj.邻近的;接壤的;v.邻近;使接近;位于…附近;(neighbor的现在分词)
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| And there's good studies of the refugees coming out of Congo -- they have two, three percent infected, and peaceful Zambia -- much higher. |
有人研究过刚果难民的感染率 也在百分之二到三之间 而和平的赞比亚要高得多 |
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refugees:n.避难者;逃亡者;难民;(refugee的复数)
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| There are now studies clearly showing that the wars are terrible, that rapes are terrible. |
现在有研究明确表明 虽然有很多战争,很多强奸 |
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rapes:v.强奸;强暴(rape的第三人称单数)
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| But this is not the driving force for the high levels in Africa. |
但并不是非洲HIV病毒高携带率的主要原因 |
| So, is it poverty ? |
那,是因为贫穷吗？ |
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poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
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| Well if you look at the macro level, it seems more money, more HIV. |
如果我们看看宏观水平 好像钱越多,HIV就越多 |
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macro:adj.巨大的,大量的;n.宏,巨(计算机术语);
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| But that's very simplistic , so let's go down and look at Tanzania. |
但这过于简单化了 我们来仔细看看坦桑尼亚的情况 |
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simplistic:adj.过分简单化的;过分单纯化的;
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| I will split Tanzania in five income groups, from the highest income to the lowest income, and here we go. |
我把坦桑尼亚人按收入分成五组 从最高收入到最低 我们来看看 |
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split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
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| The ones with the highest income, the better off, I wouldn't say rich, they have higher HIV. |
收入最高的人,处境较好的人,我不会叫他们富人 他们的HIV感染率更高 |
| The difference goes from 11 percent down to four percent, and the difference is even bigger among women. |
感染率最高有百分之十一,最低的到百分之四 妇女中这个差距更大 |
| There's a lot of things that we thought, that now, good research, done by African institutions and researchers together with the international researchers, show that that's not the case. |
我们现在的想法,被很多研究 非洲及国际机构和研究人员所做的研究 证实是错误的 |
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institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
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| So, this is the difference within Tanzania. |
那么,这是坦桑尼亚的例子 |
| And, I can't avoid showing Kenya. |
我必须再举一下肯尼亚的例子 |
| Look here at Kenya. |
来看看肯尼亚 |
| I've split Kenya in its provinces. |
我按省份划分肯尼亚 |
| Here it goes. |
来看看 |
| See the difference within one African country -- it goes from very low level to very high level, and most of the provinces in Kenya is quite modest . |
在同一个非洲国家里的差别 从很低的水平到很高的水平 而肯尼亚大部分的省份感染率并不高 |
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modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的;
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| So, what is it then? |
那到底是什么原因呢？ |
| Why do we see this extremely high levels in some countries? |
为什么有些国家的感染率那么高？ |
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extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地;
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| Well, it is more common with multiple partners, there is less condom use, and there is age-disparate sex -- that is, older men tend to have sex with younger women. |
有多个性伴侣的因素 有不爱用避孕套的因素 有异龄性爱因素 -- 就是老男人喜欢跟年轻女人做爱 |
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multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数; condom:n.避孕套;阴茎套;
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| We see higher rates in younger women than younger men in many of these highly affected countries. |
在很多感染率较高的国家里 年轻女性的感染率要高于年轻男性 |
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highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地;
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| But where are they situated ? |
那地理上的分布又是怎么样呢？ |
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situated:adj.位于…的;处于…境遇的;v.使位于;使处于;(situate的过去分词和过去式)
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| I will swap the bubbles to a map. |
我把气泡转移到地图上 |
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swap:n.交换;交换之物;vt.与...交换;以...作交换;vi.交换;交易;
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| Look, the highly infected are four percent of all population and they hold 50 percent of the HIV-infected. |
看,高感染率的国家占世界人口的百分之四 但却有全球百分之五十的HIV感染者 |
| HIV exists all over the world. |
HIV在世界各地都存在 |
| Look, you have bubbles all over the world here. |
看,气泡分布在所有地方 |
| Brazil has many HIV-infected. |
巴西有很多HIV感染者 |
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Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家);
|
| Arab countries not so much, but Iran is quite high. |
阿拉伯国家不多,但伊朗很高 |
| They have heroin addiction and also prostitution in Iran. |
伊朗的问题是海洛因和卖淫 |
|
heroin:n.[药][毒物]海洛因,吗啡; addiction:n.瘾;嗜好;入迷; prostitution:n.卖淫;滥用;出卖灵魂;
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| India has many because they are many. |
印度有很多因为它本身人口多 |
| Southeast Asia, and so on. |
东南亚,等等 |
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Southeast:adj.东南的;来自东南的;n.东南;东南地区;adv.来自东南;
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| But, there is one part of Africa -- and the difficult thing is, at the same time , not to make a uniform statement about Africa, not to come to simple ideas of why it is like this, on one hand . |
但非洲有一部分 -- 同时要注意的是 不要说到非洲就想到整个非洲 一方面不要认为出现现在的情况是因为单一的原因 |
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at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; uniform:adj.统一的;一致的;相同的;始终如一的;n.制服;v.使穿制服;使成一样; statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; on one hand:一方面;
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| On the other hand , [admit that this is a severe case], because there is a scientific consensus about this pattern now. |
另一方面要承认现在的情况很严重 现在对这个分布图科学界已经达成了共识 |
|
On the other hand:另一方面; severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的; scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; consensus:n.一致;舆论;合意;
|
| UNAIDS have made good data available, finally , about the spread of HIV. |
UNAIDS终于提供了HIV传播的 详细数据 |
|
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
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| It could be concurrency. |
可能是同时拥有多重性伴侣 |
| It could be some virus types. |
可能是某些病毒种类 |
| It could be that there is other things which makes transmission occur in a higher frequency. |
可能是有别的原因 使得传播到这样高的比例 |
|
occur:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;
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| After all, if you are completely healthy and you have heterosexual sex, the risk of infection in one intercourse is one in 1,000. |
不管怎样,如果你完全健康并且是异性恋 每次性交被传染的概率是千分之一 |
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heterosexual:adj.异性的;异性恋的;n.异性恋的人; infection:n.感染;传染;(身体某部位的)感染;传染病; intercourse:n.性交;交往;交流;
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| Don't jump to conclusions now; behave tonight and so on. |
别轻易得出结论 今晚就去胡搞 |
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jump to conclusions:妄下结论; behave:v.表现;(机器等)运转;举止端正;(事物)起某种作用;
|
| (Laughter) |
(笑声) |
| But -- and if you are in an unfavorable situation, more sexually transmitted diseases , it can be one in 100. |
但是,如果你的状况不那么好 更多通过性传染的疾病几率可以达到百分之一 |
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unfavorable:adj.不宜的;令人不快的;不顺利的; sexually:adv.性,性欲 transmitted:v.传送;输送;发射;播送;传播;传染;(transmit的过去分词和过去式) diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类;
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| But what we think is that it could be concurrency. |
但我们认为同时拥有多个性伴可能是主要原因 |
| And what is concurrency? |
什么是同时拥有多重性伴侣？ |
| In Sweden, we have no concurrency. |
在瑞典我们没有多重性伴侣 |
| We have serial monogamy . |
我们是连续的单一性伴侣 |
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serial:adj.顺序排列的; n.电视连续剧; monogamy:n.一夫一妻制;[动]单配偶,[动]单配性;
|
| Vodka , New Year's Eve -- new partner for the spring. |
喝伏特加,除夕夜 -- 春天有新伙伴了 |
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Vodka:n.伏特加酒;
|
| Vodka, Midsummer's Eve -- new partner for the fall. |
喝伏特加,仲夏夜 -- 秋天有新伙伴了 |
| Vodka -- and it goes on like this, you know? |
喝伏特加 -- 继续这样子,你们明白了吗？ |
| And you collect a big number of exes . |
这样你会有很多“前”女友 |
|
exes:n.费用;
|
| And we have a terrible chlamydia epidemic -- terrible chlamydia epidemic which sticks around for many years. |
有一种可怕的衣原体传染病 这种可怕的衣原体传染病持续多年 |
|
chlamydia:n.衣原体;
|
| HIV has a peak three to six weeks after infection and therefore, having more than one partner in the same month is much more dangerous in HIV transmission than in other infections . |
而HIV是在感染后的三到六周有一个活动高峰 因此,在一个月里有多个性伙伴 对HIV传播是特别危险的 |
|
infections:n.传染病;口腔病害(infection复数形式);
|
| Probably, it's a combination of this. |
很可能,这是原因之一 |
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combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合;
|
| And what makes me so happy is that we are moving now towards fact when we look at this. |
让我高兴的是我们在考虑这些因素的时候 在不断地向真相进步 |
| You can get this chart, free. |
大家可以免费来拿这份图表 |
| We have uploaded UNAIDS data on Gapminder.org. |
我们把UNAIDS的数据上传到Gapminder.org |
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uploaded:vt.上传;
|
| And we hope that when we act on global problems in the future we will not only have the heart, we will not only have the money, but we will also use the brain. |
并且希望将来在解决全球性问题时 我们不仅带着一颗心 不仅带着钱 也多用脑子 |
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global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
|
| Thank you very much. |
谢谢大家 |
| (Applause) |
(掌声) |