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HansRosling_2006-_用前所未有的好方法诠释数字统计_
About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development to Swedish undergraduate students. That was after having spent about 20 years together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa, so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world. [00:15]
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; Swedish:adj.瑞典的;瑞典语的;瑞典人的;n.瑞典语;瑞典人; undergraduate:n.本科生; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute , an undergraduate course called Global Health. But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous. I thought, these students [00:31]
Institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院;
coming to us actually have the highest grade you can get in Swedish college systems -- so maybe they know everything [00:43]
I'm going to teach them about. So I did a pre-test when they came. [00:49]
pre-test:n.先期测验;
And one of the questions from which I learnt a lot was this one: "Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?" [00:53]
mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运;
And I put them together, so that in each pair of country, one has twice the child mortality of the other. And this means that it's much bigger a difference than the uncertainty of the data. [01:00]
uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠;
I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey, which is highest there, Poland , Russia, Pakistan and South Africa. [01:14]
Poland:n.波兰(欧洲国家);
And these were the results of the Swedish students. I did it so I got the confidence interval , which is pretty narrow , and I got happy, of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible. That means that [01:21]
confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的; interval:n.间歇;音程;休息时间;(其他事情)穿插出现的间隙; narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分;
there was a place for a professor of international health -- [01:31]
(Laughter) and for my course. [01:34]
But one late night, when I was compiling the report [01:36]
compiling:n.[计]编译;v.编辑;收集(compile的ing形式);
I really realized my discovery. I have shown that Swedish top students know statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees . [01:40]
statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上; significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地; chimpanzees:n.[脊椎]黑猩猩(chimpanzee的复数);
(Laughter) [01:51]
Because the chimpanzee would score half right if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey. They would be right half of the cases. [01:53]
But the students are not there. The problem for me was not ignorance : it was preconceived ideas. [02:00]
ignorance:n.无知,愚昧;不知,不懂; preconceived:adj.预想的; v.预想(preconceive的过去式和过去分词);
I did also an unethical study of the professors of the Karolinska Institute [02:07]
unethical:adj.不道德的;缺乏职业道德的;
(Laughter) [02:11]
- that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine, and they are on par with the chimpanzee there. [02:12]
Nobel Prize:n.诺贝尔奖; par:n.标准;票面价值;平均数量;adj.标准的;票面的;
(Laughter) [02:16]
This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate, because the data of what's happening in the world and the child health of every country is very well aware. [02:19]
We did this software which displays it like this: every bubble here is a country. [02:29]
displays:v.陈列; n.陈列; bubble:n.泡;气泡;肥皂泡;一点感情;v.起泡;冒泡;洋溢着(某种感情);
This country over here is China. This is India. [02:34]
The size of the bubble is the population, and on this axis here I put fertility rate. [02:40]
axis:n.轴;轴线;轴心国; fertility:n.多产;肥沃;[农经]生产力;丰饶;
Because my students, what they said when they looked upon the world, and I asked them, "What do you really think about the world?" [02:46]
Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly . [02:53]
mainly:adv.大多;大部分;主要地;首要地;
(Laughter) [02:57]
And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.' [02:58]
And we is Western world and them is Third World ." [03:01]
Third World:n.第三世界;
'"And what do you mean with Western world?" I said. [03:04]
'"Well, that's long life and small family, and Third World is short life and large family." [03:07]
So this is what I could display here. I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman, one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman. [03:12]
We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about -- on the size of families in all countries. [03:22]
The error margin is narrow. Here I put life expectancy at birth, from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years. [03:28]
margin:n.边缘;利润,余裕;页边的空白;v.加边于;加旁注于; life expectancy:预期寿命;
And 1962, there was really a group of countries here. [03:35]
that was industrialized countries, and they had small families and long lives. [03:38]
industrialized:adj.工业化的;v.使工业化;将…组成产业(industrialize的过去分词);
And these were the developing countries: they had large families and they had relatively short lives. [03:43]
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
Now what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change. [03:48]
Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries? [03:52]
Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here? [03:56]
Or have they got longer lives and live up there? [03:59]
Let's see. We stopped the world then. This is all U.N. statistics that have been available. Here we go. Can you see there? [04:01]
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there. [04:07]
improving:v.改进;改善;(improve的现在分词)
All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families. [04:10]
Latin:adj.拉丁语的;用拉丁语写成的;n.拉丁语;
Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries, and they get larger families, but they -- no, longer life, but not larger families. [04:13]
The Africans are the green down here. They still remain here. [04:20]
This is India. Indonesia's moving on pretty fast. [04:23]
(Laughter) [04:26]
And in the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries there. [04:27]
But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s: the imams start to promote family planning . [04:30]
miracle:n.奇迹,奇迹般的人或物;惊人的事例; imams:n.伊玛目(清真寺内率领穆斯林做礼拜的人,imam的复数); promote:v.促进;推动;促销;提升;晋升; family planning:n.计划生育;家庭计划;
They move up into that corner. And in '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries and all the rest of them move up into the corner, where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world. [04:36]
HIV:n.艾滋病病毒; epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的; all the rest:其他所有相关信息;
(Applause) [04:52]
Let me make a comparison directly between the United States of America and Vietnam. [05:05]
comparison:n.比较;对比;相比; directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就; United States of America:un.美利坚合众国;
1964: America had small families and long life; [05:10]
Vietnam had large families and short lives. And this is what happens: the data during the war indicate that even with all the death, there was an improvement of life expectancy. By the end of the year, the family planning started in Vietnam and they went for smaller families. [05:15]
indicate:v.表明;显示;象征;暗示; improvement:n.改进,改善;
And the United States up there is getting for longer life, keeping family size. And in the '80s now, they give up communist planning and they go for market economy , [05:31]
communist:n.共产党员;共产主义者;adj.共产主义的; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
and it moves faster even than social life. And today, we have in Vietnam the same life expectancy and the same family size here in Vietnam, 2003, as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war. [05:40]
I think we all -- if we don't look in the data -- we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia, which was in social change before we saw the economical change. [05:56]
underestimate:v.低估;看轻;n.低估; tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; economical:adj.经济的;节约的;合算的;
Let's move over to another way here in which we could display the distribution in the world of the income. This is the world distribution of income of people. [06:08]
distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day. [06:20]
There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth . [06:25]
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; myth:n.神话;虚构的人,虚构的事;
There's a little hump here. But there are people all the way. [06:29]
hump:n.驼峰;驼背;圆形隆起物;vi.隆起;弓起;努力;急速行进;vt.使隆起;使烦恼;
And if we look where the income ends up -- the income -- this is 100 percent the world's annual income. And the richest 20 percent, they take out of that about 74 percent. And the poorest 20 percent, [06:34]
annual:n.年报;年鉴;年刊;adj.每年的;年度的;一年的;
they take about two percent. And this shows that the concept of developing countries is extremely doubtful . We think about aid, like these people here giving aid to these people here. But in the middle, we have most the world population, and they have now 24 percent of the income. [06:51]
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; doubtful:adj.可疑的;令人生疑的;疑心的;不能确定的;
We heard it in other forms. And who are these? [07:09]
Where are the different countries? I can show you Africa. [07:13]
This is Africa. 10 percent the world population, most in poverty . [07:17]
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
This is OECD. The rich country. The country club of the U.N. [07:22]
country club:n.(体育运动和社交的)乡村俱乐部;
And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD. [07:27]
overlap:n.重叠;重复;v.部分重叠;与…同时发生;
And this is Latin America . It has everything on this Earth, from the poorest to the richest, in Latin America . [07:32]
Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区);
And on top of that, we can put East Europe, we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia. And how did it look like if we go back in time, to about 1970? Then there was more of a hump. [07:38]
And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians . [07:53]
Asians:adj.亚洲的;亚洲人的;n.亚洲人;
The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia. And if I now let the world move forward, you will see that while population increase, there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty and some others getting into poverty, and this is the pattern we have today. [07:57]
And the best projection from the World Bank is that this will happen, and we will not have a divided world. We'll have most people in the middle. [08:13]
projection:n.投射;规划;突出;发射;推测; World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构);
Of course it's a logarithmic scale here, but our concept of economy is growth with percent. We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase. If I change this, and I take [08:21]
logarithmic:adj.对数的; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢; percentile:adj.百分率的;按百等分排列的;n.百分位;
GDP per capita instead of family income, and I turn these individual data into regional data of gross domestic product , and I take the regions down here, the size of the bubble is still the population. [08:34]
per capita:adj.每人的;人均的; individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的; regional:adj.地区的;局部的;整个地区的; gross domestic product:na.国内生产总值; regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数)
And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there, and we take off the Arab states there, coming both from Africa and from Asia, and we put them separately , [08:48]
sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区; separately:adv.分别地;分离地;个别地;
and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here, by adding the social values there, child survival . [08:58]
expand:v.扩张;使膨胀;详述;发展;张开,展开; dimension:n.方面;[数]维;尺寸;次元;容积vt.标出尺寸;adj.规格的; survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物;
Now I have money on that axis, and I have the possibility of children to survive there. [09:06]
In some countries, 99.7 percent of children survive to five years of age; others, only 70. And here it seems there is a gap between OECD, Latin America, East Europe, East Asia, [09:11]
Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. [09:23]
The linearity is very strong between child survival and money. [09:27]
linearity:n.线性;线性度;直线性;
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa. Health is there and better health is up there. [09:32]
split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries. [09:40]
And when it burst , the size of his country bubble is the size of the population. [09:45]
burst:v.破裂;爆炸;突破;冲进;n.爆发;点射;释放;(情感的)迸发;
Sierra Leone down there. Mauritius is up there. Mauritius was the first country to get away with trade barriers , and they could sell their sugar. [09:50]
Sierra:n.(尤指西班牙和美洲的)锯齿状山脉; Leone:n.利昂(塞拉利昂货币单位); get away with:侥幸成功,侥幸逃脱; barriers:n.障碍;栅栏;篱笆墙(barrier的复数形式);
They could sell their textiles on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America . [09:58]
textiles:n.纺织品;纺织业;(textile的复数) North America:n.北美洲;
There's a huge difference between Africa. And Ghana is here in the middle. [10:03]
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid. [10:07]
humanitarian:adj.人道主义的;博爱的;基督凡人论的;n.人道主义者;基督凡人论者;
Here in Uganda , development aid. Here, time to invest , there, you can go for a holiday. It's a tremendous variation within Africa which we rarely often make -- that it's equal everything. [10:10]
Uganda:n.乌干达(非洲国家); invest:v.投资;(把资金)投入;投入(时间、精力等);授予; variation:n.变异;变体;变奏;变种; rarely:adv.很少地;难得;罕有地;
I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle. [10:23]
But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. [10:27]
Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
I can split Arab states. How are they? Same climate, same culture, same religion. Huge difference. Even between neighbors. [10:31]
Yemen, civil war. United Arab Emirate , money which was quite equally and well used. [10:39]
civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的; Emirate:n.酋长国;
Not as the myth is. And that includes all the children of the foreign workers who are in the country. [10:44]
Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad. [10:51]
There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here: [10:56]
Cambodia , Singapore. The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data. East Europe: [10:58]
Cambodia:n.柬埔寨(位于亚洲);
Soviet economy for a long time, but they come out after ten years very, very differently. And there is Latin America. [11:04]
Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人;
Today, we don't have to go to Cuba to find a healthy country in Latin America. [11:13]
Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now. [11:17]
And here we have high-income countries in the OECD. [11:22]
And we get the whole pattern here of the world, which is more or less like this. And if we look at it, how it looks -- the world, in 1960, it starts to move. 1960. [11:25]
more or less:或多或少;
This is Mao Tse-tung. He brought health to China. And then he died. [11:40]
And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China, and brought them into the mainstream again. [11:43]
mainstream:n.主流;
And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this, so it's sort of difficult to get an example country which shows the pattern of the world. [11:48]
I would like to bring you back to about here at 1960. [12:01]
I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one, with Brazil , which is this one. The label went away for me here. And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there. And I can run it forward, like this. [12:07]
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较; Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); label:n.标签;标记;谓;唱片公司;v.贴标签于;用标签标明;
And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement , whereas Brazil is much slower. [12:27]
advancement:n.前进,进步;提升; whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之;
And if we move back again, here, and we put on trails on them, like this, you can see again that the speed of development is very, very different, and the countries are moving more or less [12:39]
trails:n.山径;踪迹(trail的复数)vt.拖尾(trail的第三人称单数);
in the same rate as money and health, but it seems you can move much faster if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first. [12:55]
And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirate. [13:04]
They came from here, a mineral country. They cached all the oil, they got all the money, but health cannot be bought at the supermarket. [13:08]
mineral:n.矿物;矿物质;汽水;adj.矿物(性)的;含矿物的;无机的; cached:v.贮藏起来;隐藏起来(cache的过去分词形式);adj.高速缓冲存储器存储的;
You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling. [13:15]
You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population. [13:19]
And Sheikh Sayed did that in a fairly good way. [13:22]
Sheikh:n.族长;阿拉伯酋长(等于sheik); fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直;
And in spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here. [13:25]
in spite of:尽管;不管,不顾;
So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world, where all countries tend to use their money better than they used in the past. Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries. They are like this. [13:29]
appearance:n.外貌;外观;外表;
Now that's dangerous, to use average data, because there is such a lot of difference within countries. So if I go and look here, we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was 1960. If I split Uganda, there's quite a difference within Uganda. These are the quintiles of Uganda. [13:47]
The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there. [14:09]
The poorest are down there. If I split South Africa, it's like this. [14:12]
If I go down and look at Niger, where there was such a terrible famine , lastly, it's like this. The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here, and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there, and yet we tend to discuss on what solutions there should be in Africa. [14:16]
famine:n.饥荒;
Everything in this world exists in Africa. And you can't discuss universal access to HIV [medicine] for that quintile up here with the same strategy as down here. The improvement of the world [14:34]
universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的; strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;
must be highly contextualized , and it's not relevant to have it on regional level. We must be much more detailed. [14:45]
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; contextualized:v.将(音素,单词等)置于上下文中研究(contextualize的过去式); relevant:adj.相关的;切题的;中肯的;有重大关系的;有意义的,目的明确的;
We find that students get very excited when they can use this. [14:53]
And even more policy makers and the corporate sectors would like to see how the world is changing. Now, why doesn't this take place ? [14:57]
policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; sectors:n.部门; v.把…划成扇形; take place:发生;举行;
Why are we not using the data we have? We have data in the United Nations , in the national statistical agencies and in universities and other non-governmental organizations . [15:06]
United Nations:n.联合国; agencies:n.代理;代理处(agency的复数); non-governmental:非政府的;非官方的; organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构;
Because the data is hidden down in the databases. [15:16]
And the public is there, and the Internet is there, but we have still not used it effectively. [15:18]
All that information we saw changing in the world does not include publicly-funded statistics. There are some web pages like this, you know, but they take some nourishment down from the databases, but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics. [15:23]
nourishment:n.食物;营养品;滋养品; boring:adj.无聊的;令人厌烦的;n.钻孔;v.使厌烦;钻孔;(bore的现在分词)
(Laughter) (Applause) [15:41]
And this won't work. So what is needed? We have the databases. [15:44]
It's not the new database you need. We have wonderful design tools, and more and more are added up here. So we started a nonprofit venture which we called -- linking data to design -- [15:48]
nonprofit:adj.非赢利的;不以赢利为目的的; venture:v.敢于;冒险;投机;n.企业;风险;冒险;
we call it Gapminder, from the London underground, where they warn you, "mind the gap." So we thought Gapminder was appropriate . [16:00]
appropriate:adj.适当的;恰当的;v.占用,拨出;
And we started to write software which could link the data like this. [16:06]
And it wasn't that difficult. It took some person years, and we have produced animations . [16:10]
animations:n.[电影]动画片(animation的复数);
You can take a data set and put it there. [16:16]
We are liberating U.N. data, some few U.N. organization. [16:18]
liberating:v.解放;使自由;使摆脱约束(或限制);(liberate的现在分词)
Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world, but what we really need is, of course, a search function. [16:23]
A search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format and get it out in the world. And what do we hear when we go around? [16:30]
searchable:adj.可被搜查的;透过搜查能找到的;
I've done anthropology on the main statistical units. Everyone says, "It's impossible. This can't be done. Our information is so peculiar in detail, so that cannot be searched as others can be searched. [16:38]
anthropology:n.人类学;人类学家; peculiar:adj.特殊的;独特的;奇怪的;罕见的;n.特权;特有财产;
We cannot give the data free to the students, free to the entrepreneurs of the world." [16:50]
entrepreneurs:n.企业家;(entrepreneur的复数)
But this is what we would like to see, isn't it? [16:55]
The publicly-funded data is down here. [16:58]
And we would like flowers to grow out on the Net. [17:01]
And one of the crucial points is to make them searchable, and then people can use the different design tool to animate it there. [17:04]
crucial:adj.重要的;决定性的;定局的;决断的; animate:vt.使有生气;使活泼;鼓舞;推动;adj.有生命的;
And I have a pretty good news for you. I have a good news that the present, new Head of U.N. Statistics, he doesn't say it's impossible. [17:11]
He only says, "We can't do it." [17:20]
(Laughter) [17:22]
And that's a quite clever guy, huh? [17:26]
(Laughter) [17:28]
So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years. [17:30]
We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways. [17:34]
distributions:n.分派;分派;分销(distribution的复数形式);
This is the income distribution of China, 1970. [17:38]
the income distribution of the United States, 1970. [17:44]
Almost no overlap. Almost no overlap. And what has happened? [17:49]
What has happened is this: that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer, and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States. [17:53]
overlooking:v.忽略;不予理会;俯视;眺望;(overlook的现在分词)
Almost like a ghost , isn't it, huh? [18:02]
ghost:n.鬼,幽灵;v.作祟于;替…捉刀;为人代笔;
(Laughter) [18:04]
It's pretty scary. But I think it's very important to have all this information. [18:06]
We need really to see it. And instead of looking at this, [18:16]
I would like to end up by showing the Internet users per 1,000. [18:22]
In this software, we access about 500 variables from all the countries quite easily. [18:27]
variables:n.[数]变量;
It takes some time to change for this, but on the axises, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have. [18:32]
And the thing would be to get up the databases free, to get them searchable, and with a second click, to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them. [18:41]
graphic:adj.形象的;图表的;绘画似的;
Now, statisticians doesn't like it, because they say that this will not show the reality; we have to have statistical, analytical methods. [18:54]
statisticians:n.统计学家,统计员; analytical:adj.分析的;解析的;善于分析的;
But this is hypothesis-generating. [19:06]
I end now with the world. There, the Internet is coming. [19:09]
The number of Internet users are going up like this. This is the GDP per capita. [19:13]
And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly, how well it fits to the economy of the countries. That's why the 100 dollar computer will be so important. But it's a nice tendency . [19:17]
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; tendency:n.倾向,趋势;癖好;
It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it? These countries are lifting more than the economy and will be very interesting to follow this over the year, as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data. Thank you very much. [19:30]
flattening:n.整平;扁率;压扁作用;v.压扁(flatten的ing形式); funded:adj.提供资金的;v.提供资金;积存;提供资金偿付的本息;(fund的过去式);
(Applause) [19:43]