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GrahamAllison_2018S-_中美战争是否不可避免？_
So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about the biggest international story of your professional lifetime, which is also the most important international challenge the world will face for as far as the eye can see. 首先我想感谢能有这个机会, 来讨论你们职业生涯中 最大的国际话题, 同时也是众所周知, 最重要的, 全世界正面临的国际性挑战。
professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员; as far as:至于…;
The story, of course, is the rise of China. 这个话题,毋庸置疑, 便是中国的崛起。
Never before have so many people risen so far so fast, on so many different dimensions . 在此之前从未有如此众多的人, 在如此众多的方面,
dimensions:n.规模,大小;
The challenge is the impact of China's rise -- the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States and the international order, of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian . 随之而来的挑战在于 中国崛起所带来的影响-- 对美国以及国际秩序, 所产生的混乱, 而美国一直是国际秩序的 首要建造者和守卫者。
impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; discombobulation:n.扰乱; Unites:联合;合并; principal:adj.主要的;资本的;n.首长;校长;资本;当事人; architect:n.建筑师;设计师;创造者; guardian:n.[法]监护人,保护人;守护者;adj.守护的;
The past 100 years have been what historians now call an "American Century." 历史学家们将过去的100年 称为“美国的世纪”。
Americans have become accustomed to their place at the top of every pecking order. 美国人对自己在各方面所处的顶尖地位, 早已习以为常。
accustomed to:习惯于; pecking:v.啄;鹐;匆匆地轻吻;(peck的现在分词)
So the very idea of another country that could be as big and strong as the US -- or bigger -- strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are. 因此,若是有另一个 如同美国一样, 力量强大的大国-- 甚至更大的国家存在。 这将对美国人的 自我认知造成威胁。
assault:v.袭击;殴打;威胁;非议;(assault的现在分词)
For perspective on what we're now seeing in this rivalry , it's useful to locate it on the larger map of history. 对这场正在进行的竞争 应该采取什么视角, 把眼光放大至历史中会很有用。
perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的; rivalry:n.竞争;对抗;竞赛; locate:v.确定…的准确地点;把…安置在(或建造于);创办于(某地);
The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. 过去500年发生过的16案例, 展现崛起力量威胁掌权力量, 甚至取而代之。
displace:vt.取代;置换;转移;把…免职;排水;
Twelve of those ended in war. 其中12件案例最终导致战争。
So just in November, we'll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary of the final day of a war that became so encompassing , that it required historians to create an entirely new category : world war. 刚刚过去的11月, 我们纪念了那场100周年的战争。 这场战争影响之广, 以致历史学家创造了一个 新的类别:世界大战。
encompassing:adj.包含的;包容的,环绕;v.围绕,包围(encompass的ing形式); category:n.种类,分类;[数]范畴;
So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the guns of World War I fell silent, but 20 million individuals lay dead. 在1918年的第11个月的, 第11天中的第11个小时, 第一次世界大战的 枪声开始沉寂, 但是两千万人 早已在战争中丧生。
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
I know that this is a sophisticated audience, so you know about the rise of China. 我相信在座各位都很熟悉, 所以你们应该 对中国的崛起有所了解。
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的;
I'm going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China's rise, on the US, on the international order and on the prospects for war and peace. 因此,我接下来想着重讨论 中国崛起所带来的影响, 对于美国,对于国际秩序, 对于战争与和平方面所带来的影响。
prospects:n.可能性; v.探矿; (prospect的第三人称单数和复数)
But having taught at Harvard over many years, 我在哈佛教书多年的经验告诉我,
Harvard:n.哈佛大学;哈佛大学学生;
I've learned that from time to time , it's useful to take a short pause, just to make sure we're all on the same page . 偶尔有个短暂间隙会很有效, 来确认我们的认知是否同步。
from time to time:不时,有时; on the same page:在同一页上;进度相同;达成共识;
The way I do this is, I call a time-out , 我将我的检验方式称为“暂停休息”,
time-out:n.休息时间,暂停;
I give students a pop quiz -- ungraded , of course. 我给学生们提及测验 当然了,是不记分的。
pop quiz:n.(给学生的)突击小测验; ungraded:adj.劣质的;没有分等级的;不标准的;n.次级品;
So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz. 所以我们也试试吧, 突击小测验。
Question: forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market. 提问: 四十年前,1987年, 中国向市场进军。
At that point, what percentage of China's one billion citizens were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day? 那时的中国, 十亿人口中有多少比例 挣扎在每天仅花2美刀的水平线上呢？
percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成;
Take a guess -- 25 percent? 猜一下--25%？
Fifty? 50%？
Seventy-five? 75%？
Ninety. 是90%。
What do you think? 你们怎么看？
Ninety. 90%。
Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day. 每十人中有九人,每天的花销不到2美刀。
Twenty eighteen, 40 years later. 2018年,40年之后,
What about the numbers? 这个数字变成多少了呢？
What's your bet ? 你们猜是多少？
bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿;
Take a look. 了解一下,
Fewer than one in 100 today. 如今每一百人中不到一人。
And China's president has promised that within the next three years, those last tens of millions will have been raised up above that threshold . 中国国家主席还承诺在未来三年里, 最后的那一千万人口, 会摆脱那个临界值。
threshold:n.入口;门槛;开始;极限;临界值;
So it's a miracle , actually, in our lifetime. 因此这可以说是我们 有生之年中的一个奇迹。
miracle:n.奇迹,奇迹般的人或物;惊人的事例;
Hard to believe. 难以置信。
But brute facts are even harder to ignore . 然而残忍的事实无法忽视。
brute:adj.残忍的;无理性的;n.畜生;残暴的人; ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬;
A nation that didn't even appear on any of the international league tables 25 years ago has soared , to rival -- and in some areas, surpass -- the United States. 一个在25年前从未出现在, 任何国际会议上的国家, 已经崛起, 开始去竞争-- 并且在一些方面超越了美国。
league:n.联赛;联盟;协会;种类;v.(使)结盟;(使)联合[团结];一鼻孔出气;组成联盟; soared:v.飙升(soar的过去分词);骤然上升; surpass:v.超越;胜过,优于;非…所能办到或理解; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
Thus, the challenge that will shape our world: a seemingly unstoppable rising China accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US, on course for what could be the grandest collision in history. 因此,改变世界的挑战在于: 貌似无法阻挡的 崛起的中国, 加速朝着明显不动的 占据统治地位的美国走去。 这可以说是历史上 最大的碰撞交锋。
seemingly:adv.看来似乎;表面上看来; unstoppable:adj.无法阻碍的;无法停止的(副词unstoppably); accelerating:adj.促进的,[物]加速的;催化的; apparently:adv.显然地;似乎,表面上; immovable:adj.不动的;固定的;不改变的; collision:n.抵触;碰撞(或相撞)事故;
To help us get our minds around this challenge, 为了帮助大家理解这个挑战,
I'm going to introduce you to a great thinker, 我要向大家介绍 一位伟大的思想家。
I'm going to present a big idea, and I'm going to pose a most consequential question. 我要在演讲中展示 一个宏大的想法, 并由此提出 最重要的问题。
pose:v.引起; n.装腔作势; (为画像、拍照等摆的)姿势; consequential:adj.间接的;结果的;重要的;随之发生的;自傲的;
The great thinker is Thucydides. 这位思想家名为修昔底德。
Now, I know his name is a mouthful, and some people have trouble pronouncing it. 我知道他的名字很绕口, 有些人不太清楚如何发音。
So, let's do it, one, two, three, together: 所以我们练习一遍, 一,二,三,一起:
Thucydides. 修昔底德。
One more time: Thucydides. 再一次:修昔底德。
So who was Thucydides? 谁是修昔底德？
He was the father and founder of history. 他是历史学之父,历史学的创立者,
founder:vi.失败;沉没;倒塌;变跛;vt.破坏;使摔倒;垮掉;n.创始人;建立者;翻沙工;
He wrote the first-ever history book. 他撰写了第一本历史书。
first-ever:adj.第一例;前所未有;
It's titled "The History of the Peloponnesian War," 这本书名为 《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》。
about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago. 它讲的是2500年前 发生在希腊的战争,
So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends, "I met a great thinker. 所以如果今天什么都没印象 你可以给朋友发推特说: “我今天认识了一位伟大的思想家,
And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides." 我甚至可以念他的名字:修昔底德”。
pronounce:v.发音;读(音);正式宣布(或公布,授予等);
So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece, 关于这场摧毁了古希腊的战争,
classical:adj.古典的;经典的;传统的;第一流的;n.古典音乐;
Thucydides wrote famously : "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable ." 修昔底德写下了一句着名评论: “正是雅典势力的崛起 和斯巴达因此而逐渐产生的恐惧, 使得这场战争不可避免”。
famously:adv.著名地;极好地; instilled:v.逐渐灌输,逐步培养(感受、思想或行为);(instill的过去式和过去分词) inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
So the rise of one and the reaction of the other create a toxic cocktail of pride, arrogance , paranoia , that drug them both to war. 所以一方势力的崛起, 以及另一方所做的反应, 制造了饱含 骄傲,傲慢,偏执的 有毒鸡尾酒, 这毒药让两者都上了战场。
reaction:n.反应,感应;反动,复古;反作用; toxic:adj.有毒的;中毒的; cocktail:n.鸡尾酒;开味食品;n.混合物;adj.鸡尾酒的; arrogance:n.自大;傲慢态度; paranoia:n.[心理]偏执狂,[内科]妄想狂;
Which brings me to the big idea: 而这将我引向一个宏大的想法:
Thucydides's Trap . 修昔底德的陷阱。
Trap:v.使陷入困境;卡住;夹住;收集;吸收;n.陷阱;圈套;捕捉器;诡计;
'"Thucydides's Trap" is a term I coined several years ago, to make vivid Thucydides's insight . “修昔底德的陷阱”是 我几年前发明的词, 以便生动地阐述 修昔底德的见解。
vivid:adj.生动的;鲜明的;鲜艳的; insight:n.洞察力;洞悉;
Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, like Athens -- or Germany 100 years ago, or China today -- and their impact on Sparta, or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today. “修昔底德的陷阱” 指的是当新兴力量, 威胁到掌权势力时 产生的危险动态, 如雅典-- 如100年前的德国 又如如今的中国-- 和它们对斯巴达的影响, 如100年前的大英帝国 又如今对美国造成的影响。
dynamic:n.动力; adj.充满活力的; occurs:v.重现(occur的第三人称单数); Great Britain:n.大不列颠(包括英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士);
As Henry Kissinger has said, once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides's Trap in your head, it will provide a lens for helping you look through the news and noise of the day to understand what's actually going on. 像亨利·基辛格所说, 一旦你产生这个想法, 脑海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”, 它将给你提供-- 透过现今的新闻与喧嚣, 并理解事态的实际进展的棱镜,
lens:n.透镜,镜头;晶状体;隐形眼镜;汽车的灯玻璃;v.给…摄影; look through:浏览,温习;看穿,识破;从…中显露;
So, to the most consequential question about our world today: 所以,当下对于全世界来说, 最重要的问题是:
Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history? 我们将步入历史的后尘吗？
footsteps:n.脚步(footstep的复数形式);步距;
Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense and courage find a way to manage this rivalry without a war nobody wants, and everybody knows would be catastrophic ? 或者我们可以 通过融合想象力和常识, 以及勇气, 来寻找到对付 这种竞争关系的解决途径, 而不引发任何人都不期待, 且只会带来灾难的战争吗？
combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合; imagination:n.想象;想象力;创造力;想象的事物; common sense:adj.常识的;有生活经验得来的; catastrophic:adj.灾难的;悲惨的;灾难性的,毁灭性的;
Give me five minutes to unpack this, and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you about China doing this, or the US reacting like that, 让我花5分钟来解释, 等你下午接收到一条新闻消息, 报道中国这么做, 或者美国那样应对时,
unpack:vt.卸下…;解除…的负担;vi.打开包裹; reacting:v.起反应;(对…)作出反应;回应;(react的现在分词)
you will be able to have a better understanding of what's going on and even to explain it to your friends. 你就会对事情进展 有更深的理解, 甚至可以跟朋友做一番解释。
So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty , 如同我们所看到的这个 贫穷倒金字塔一样,
flipping:v.该死; v.(使)快速翻转; (flip的现在分词) poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
China has actually soared. 中国确实在崛起。
It's meteoric . 如同流星般快速向前。
meteoric:adj.大气的;流星的;疾速的;
Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best. 我认为前任捷克总统 瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔的描述很准确。
Czech:adj.捷克的,捷克人的,捷克语的;n.捷克人;捷克语;
He said, "All this has happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished ." 他说:“这一切发生得太快了, 我们甚至还来不及去惊讶。”
astonished:adj.吃惊的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
To remind myself how astonished I should be, 为了提醒我自己应该有多惊讶,
remind:v.提醒;使想起;
I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River, between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School . 我坐在自己在剑桥的办公室, 偶尔会朝窗外望去 这座横跨查尔斯河的桥, 它处于哈佛的 肯尼迪政府学院和商学院之间。
occasionally:adv.偶尔;有时候;偶然; Cambridge:n.剑桥(英国城市);坎布里奇(美国马萨诸塞州城市); Business School:n.(大学里针对毕业生的)工商学院;
In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge, and it would take two years. 2012年,马萨诸塞州宣布 他们将翻新这座桥, 预计将花费两年时间。
renovate:vt.更新;修复;革新;刷新;
In 2014, they said it wasn't finished. 可到了2014年还没竣工。
In 2015, they said it would take one more year. 2015年时, 他们说要再一年。
In 2016, they said it's not finished, we're not going to tell you when it's going to be finished. 到了2016年他们又说未能竣工, 我不是打算告诉大家它什么时候能竣工。
Finally , last year, it was finished -- three times over budget . 最终,这项工程在去年竣工-- 实际花费金额是预算的三倍。
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的;
Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing. 现在,把这架桥和我上月在北京 曾驾驶穿过的一座桥做对比。
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较;
It's called the Sanyuan Bridge. 这座桥叫三元桥。
In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge. 2015年时中国人 决定翻新这座桥。
It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic. 这座桥的交通车道数 是剑桥的两倍。
lanes:n.线路,跑道(lane复数形式);
How long did it take for them to complete the project? 中国人花了多久完成这项工程呢？
Twenty fifteen, what do you bet? 2015年, 你们猜是花了多久？
Take a guess -- OK, three -- 猜一下--好,三（年）
Take a look. 我们看看这段录像吧
(Laughter) （笑声）
The answer is 43 hours. 答案是43小时。
(Audience: Wow!) （观众:哇！）
(Laughter) （笑声）
Graham Allison: Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York. 当然,这种事不可能发生在纽约。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. 在这执行速度的背后 是由以目标驱动行动的领导者, 和一个干实事的政府。
execution:n.执行,实行;完成;死刑;
The most ambitious and most competent leader on the international stage today is Chinese President Xi Jinping. 在如今的国际舞台上 最有雄心和最有竞争力的领导者, 是中国国家主席习近平。
ambitious:adj.野心勃勃的;有雄心的;热望的;炫耀的; competent:adj.胜任的;有能力的;能干的;足够的;
And he's made no secret about what he wants. 他从不掩饰 自己想得到什么。
As he said when he became president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again -- 如同他六年前当选主席时所说。 他的目标就是要让 中国再次变得伟大—
(Laughter) （笑声）
a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this. 这个口号早在特朗普 提出类似的话前就已经出现了。
banner:n.横幅;adj.为首的;(美)突出地支持(某一政党)的; Trump:n.王牌;主牌花色;v.出王牌赢(牌);;赢;胜过;打败;
To that end, Xi Jinping has announced specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049. 那时习近平还宣布了 特定日期应完成的特定目标: 2025年,2035年,2049年,
specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
By 2025, China means to be the dominant power in the major market in 10 leading technologies , including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence , quantum computing . 到2025年时, 中国要成为10个先进科技领域, 主要市场中的主导力量, 这其中包括 无人驾驶汽车,机器人, 人工智能和量子计算。
dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); driverless:无人驾驶的; artificial intelligence:n.人工智能; quantum:n.量子论;额;美国昆腾公司(世界领先的硬盘生产商); computing:n.计算;计算机技术;信息处理技术;v.计算;求出;(compute的现在分词)
By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. 到2035年时, 中国要成为所有先进科技领域中 最具创新力的领导者。
innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; advanced:adj.先进的; v.前进; (advance的过去式和过去分词形式)
And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic, 并且到2049年, 中华人民共和国, 成立100周年之际,
China means to be unambiguously number one, including, [says] Xi Jinping, an army that he calls "Fight and Win." 中国要成为无可争议的第一, 其中包括,习近平强调, 一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。
unambiguously:adv.不含糊地;明白地;单意义地;
So these are audacious goals, but as you can see , 这些都是大胆的目标, 但是大家都知道,
audacious:adj.无畏的;鲁莽的; as you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的;
China is already well on its way to these objectives . 中国在朝着目标的路上, 一路走得稳扎稳打。
objectives:n.目的(objective的复数形式);目标;宗旨;
And we should remember how fast our world is changing. 我们还需提醒自己 这个世界的变化之快。
Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented. 三十年前, 万维网还没出现。
World Wide Web:n.万维网;
Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly ? 有谁能直观地感受到 中国崛起的影响力呢？
directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就;
Obviously, the current number one. 答案显而易见的, 便是当今的第一大国。
As China gets bigger and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives . 随着中国变得 愈发强大和富有, 科技变得更加先进, 中国将注定要对 美国的地位和特权产生威胁。
technologically:adv.科技地;技术上地; inevitably:adv.不可避免地;必然地; bump:n.肿块,隆起物;撞击;v.碰撞,撞击;颠簸而行;adv.突然地,猛烈地; prerogatives:n.特权;优先权;(prerogative的复数)
Now, for red-blooded Americans -- and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina -- there's something wrong with this picture. 对于那些热血沸腾的美国人来说—— 尤其是像我一样的美国乡巴佬-- 我来自北卡罗莱纳州, 这张宏大的蓝图里有点不对劲。
red-blooded:adj.精力充沛的;强壮的;活跃的; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; Carolina:n.卡罗莱纳州(在美国东南部);
The USA means number one, that's who we are. 美国就是“第一”的代名词, 这点毋庸置疑,
But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore. 但是还需再次强调: 我们无法忽视残忍的事实。
Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee . 四年前,参议员约翰·麦凯恩想让我, 向参议院军事委员会阐明这个事实。
Senator:n.参议员; testify:v.证明,证实;作证; Senate:n.参议院,上院;(古罗马的)元老院; Committee:n.委员会;
And I made for them a chart that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size of their economy . 我便给他们绘制了一张表,如大家所见, 在这个表中,我把中美对比: 比喻成在操场上玩跷跷板的两个小孩子, 尺寸大小由两国的经济规模决定。
seesaw:n.跷跷板; adj.交互的; vi.玩跷跷板; vt.使上下或来回摇动; represented:v.代表; (represent的过去式和过去分词) economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
As late as 2004, China was just half our size. 2004年时, 中国的规模仅占美国的一半。
By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. 到了2014年, 中国的GDP值和美国一样了。
And on the current trajectory , by 2024, it will be half again larger. 照此形势发展,到2024年时 中国的规模会变得比美国大一半。
trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道;
The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere. 这个构造层面的改变结果 体现在方方面面。
consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数); tectonic:adj.[地质]构造的;建筑的;地壳构造上的;
For example, in the current trade conflict , 举个例子,在如今的贸易冲突中,
conflict:n.冲突;矛盾;争执;抵触;v.抵触;
China is already the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. 中国已经成为了所有亚洲主要国家的, 第一大贸易伙伴。
Which brings us back to our Greek historian. 这个事实又把我们 带回了修昔底德的理论。
Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. 哈佛大学的“修昔底德案例文档” 回顾了前500年里的历史, 并发现16个档案里出现了, 崛起力量威胁掌权力量的事件。
reviewed:v.复习;评估;评论;检讨;(review的过去分词形式)
Twelve of these ended in war. 这其中12个案例以战争结束。
And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power or the ruling power. 最为悲剧的是,很少有主角, 想要发动战争; 其中只有几场战争是 由崛起力量, 或掌权力量发起的。
tragedy:n.悲惨的事;不幸;灾难;悲剧作品; protagonists:主人公;主角; initiated:v.开始;发起;创始;使了解;传授;吸收;(initiate的过去式和过去分词)
So how does this work? 事情是如何进展的？
What happens is, a third party's provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral , which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go. 实际上,第三方势力的挑衅, 造成了某一方势力的躁动, 而这便形成了一个漩涡, 把这两方势力拽进了 未曾想到达的地步。
provocation:n.挑衅;激怒;挑拨; motion:n.动作;移动;手势;请求;意向;议案;v.运动;打手势; spiral:n.螺旋;旋涡;螺旋形之物;adj.螺旋形的;v.使成螺旋形;vi.盘旋;螺旋形上升;
If that seems crazy, it is. 这听起来有点疯狂, 确实是这样的。
But it's life. 但现实如此。
Remember World War I. 回想一下 世界第一次大战。
The provocation in that case was the assassination of a second-level figure, 那场战争的导火索, 便是矛头指向二级人物,
assassination:n.暗杀,行刺;
Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies , within two months, all of Europe was at war. 弗朗茨·斐迪南大公的刺杀行动, 这导致了奥匈帝国的皇帝, 下达对塞尔维亚的最后通牒, 随后形成了多方势力的盟军, 两个月不到, 全欧洲便陷入战争。
Archduke:n.大公,皇太子; issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行; ultimatum:n.最后通牒; allies:n.盟友,支持者:v.与…结盟(ally的第三人称单数和复数)
So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today. 想象一下修昔底德 观望如今的地球形势。
What would he say? 他会发表什么看法？
Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump? 他会找到一个比特朗普更合适, 掌权力量的领导者吗？
appropriate:adj.适当的;恰当的;v.占用,拨出; leading man:n.饰主角的女演员(或男演员);
(Laughter) （笑声）
Or a more apt lead for the rising power than Xi Jinping? 或者找到一个比习近平 更合适的崛起力量领导者？
apt:adj.恰当的;有…倾向的;灵敏的;
And he would scratch his head and certainly say he couldn't think of more colorful provocateur than North Korea's Kim Jong-un. 然后他会挠挠头, 并十分确信地说他无法找到, 比朝鲜领导者金正恩 更具鲜明色彩的煽动者了。
scratch:n.擦伤; adj.打草稿用的; v.抓; provocateur:n.破坏分子,煽动者(等于agentprovocateur);奸细,内奸;
Each seems determined to play his assigned part and is right on script . 每个人似乎都在扮演着 被分配好的角色, 并按着剧本发展进行。
determined:adj.决定了的:v.决定;(determine的过去分词和过去式) assigned:v.分配(某物);分派;指定;委派;(assign的过去分词和过去式) script:n.剧本;电影剧本;笔迹;广播(或讲话等)稿;v.为电影(或戏剧等)写剧本;
So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question, the question that will have the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: 最后,我们再以最重要的问题总结, 这个问题对我们的余生, 都具有重大意义:
conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定) gravest:adj.重大的;严肃的;黯淡的(grave的变形);
Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? 美国人和中国人 难道就打算让历史的车轮, 载着他们驶向对任何人 都没好处的灾难性战争吗？
Or can we summon the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership in the 21st century, or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create a new form of great power relations? 又或,我们能征服想象力和勇气, 寻找一条共生之路, 分享21世纪的领导权力, 或者就如习近平所说, 创造一种新形式的权力联盟吗？
summon:v.召唤;召集;鼓起;振作;
That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately for the last two years. 这个话题是我近两年来, 一直在热切思考的。
pursuing:v.追求;致力于;贯彻;跟踪;追赶;(pursue的现在分词) passionately:adv.热情地;强烈地;激昂地;
I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all the relevant governments -- 我曾有机会去和所有相关政府-- 北京,华盛顿,
relevant:adj.相关的;切题的;中肯的;有重大关系的;有意义的,目的明确的;
Beijing, Washington, Seoul , Tokyo -- and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business. 首尔,东京--讨论与倾听, 并从艺术和商业范围判断这些领导者。
Seoul:n.[城]首尔; spectrum:n.光谱;频谱;范围;余象;
I wish I had more to report. 我不方便透露更多。
The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses . 好消息是,这些领导者 对于修昔底德的理论, 以及其可能造成的危险, 开始逐渐重视起来。
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地; poses:姿势;
The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual. 坏消息是, 没有人制定出可行的方案, 来逃出历史的怪圈。
feasible:adj.可行的;可能的;可实行的;
So it's clear to me that we need some ideas outside the box of conventional state graph -- indeed, from another page or another space -- which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. 所以我很清楚我们需要, 在常规之外寻找些想法-- 实际上,是从另一角度 或者另一空间-- 这便成为了我今天来TED的缘由, 也促使我发出请求。
conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的;
This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. 在座的观众中囊括了 这个星球上最富创造力的大脑, 你们会早上起来时思索, 不局限于关于如何管理 这个世界的问题, 也去思考该如何创造 一个应有的世界。
creative:adj.创造性的;
So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make a difference in this space. 所以我希望随着 大家思考得越深入, 在座的人里可能, 会产生些些大胆的甚至疯狂的想法。 而当这些想法被发现时, 便会给这个世界带来些不同。
reflect on:仔细考虑,思考;反省;回想,回顾;怀疑; bold:adj.大胆的,英勇的;黑体的;厚颜无耻的;险峻的; make a difference:有影响,有关系;
And just to remind you if you do, this won't be the first time. 提醒一下,如果你想尝试的话, 这并不是历史上的首次尝试。
Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II. 我再来讲述一下 第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。
A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective surge of imagination. 一个由美国人,欧洲人和其他地区的人 组成的杰出组织, 其中不仅有拥有政府工作背景的成员, 还有来自文化界和商界的成员。 他们把自己投入进想象力集合工程。
remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; Europeans:n.欧洲人(European的复数); engaged in:从事于;忙于; collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词; surge:n.汹涌;大浪,波涛;汹涌澎湃;巨涌;v.汹涌;起大浪,蜂拥而来;
And what they imagined and what they created was a new international order, the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet. 这些人所想象和创造的, 是新的国际秩序, 一个让你,我,所有人都拥有自己的生活, 让大规模战争消失殆尽, 并带来前所未有的繁荣的秩序。
prosperity:n.繁荣,成功;
So, a remarkable story. 这是一段很杰出的事迹。
Interestingly , every pillar of this project that produced these results, when first proposed , was rejected by the foreign policy establishment as naive or unrealistic . 有趣的是,这个项目中的每一环, 在最开始公布的时候, 被对外政策体制 以幼稚和不现实为由, 给拒绝。
Interestingly:adv.有趣地; pillar:n.支柱; v.用柱子装饰[支持]; proposed:adj.建议的;推荐的;v.提议;建议;计划;求婚;(propose的过去分词和过去式) rejected:adj.被拒的;不合格的;v.拒绝,驳回;(reject的过去式和过去分词) policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; establishment:n.大型组织;企业;旅馆;权威人士;建立; naive:adj.天真的,幼稚的; unrealistic:adj.不切实际的;不实在的;
My favorite is the Marshall Plan. 我最欣赏的是马歇尔计划。
After World War II, Americans felt exhausted . 第二次世界大战结束后, 美国已精疲力竭。
exhausted:adj.筋疲力尽的; v.使筋疲力尽; (exhaust的过去分词和过去式)
They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda . 它们遣散了一千万支军队, 并把精力放在 紧急国内议程中。
demobilized:遣散; urgent:adj.紧急的;急迫的; domestic:n.佣人;家佣;家庭纠纷;家庭矛盾;adj.本国的;国内的;家用的;家庭的; agenda:n.议事日程;
But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, 但当人们开始意识到 欧洲是怎么满目疮痍 以及苏联共产主义 如何强势时,
appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解; devastated:adj.不安的,混乱的,震惊的; v.彻底破坏; (devastate的过去分词和过去式) aggressive:adj.侵略性的;好斗的;有进取心的;有闯劲的; Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人; communism:n.共产主义;
Americans eventually decided to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just been killing Americans. 美国人最后决定在四年内 向人民征收占GDP 1.5%的税金, 并把这些钱送至欧洲协助重建, 包括德国和意大利, 这些美国昔日的敌军。
eventually:adv.最后,终于; reconstruct:vt.重建;改造;修复;重现;
Amazing. 令人惊叹。
This also created the United Nations . 这件事也促使了联合国的建立。
United Nations:n.联合国;
Amazing. 令人惊叹。
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. 世界人权宣言。
Universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的; Declaration:n.宣言;宣告;宣布;公告;
The World Bank . 世界银行。
World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构);
NATO. 北大西洋公约组织。
All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity. 所有这些都是这个以和平繁荣 为目的的秩序的产物。
elements:n.要素;基本部分;少量;一群;(element的复数)
So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again. 总之,我们所需的是 重新再做一遍。
And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it. 并且我认为现在我们需要 想象力和创造力的迸发, 前事不忘后事之师, 因为哲学家桑塔耶拿告诫我们, 最后,只有那些拒绝学习历史的人, 会被迫重蹈历史的覆辙。
informed:adj.见多识广的; v.通知; (inform的过去分词和过去式) philosopher:n.哲学家;深思的人;善于思考的人; reminded:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的过去分词和过去式) condemned:adj.已被定罪的;被责难的;
Thank you. 谢谢大家。
(Applause) （掌声）