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GradyBooch_2016S-_无需畏惧超级人工智能_

When I was a kid, I was the quintessential nerd . 这些都很令人兴奋。
quintessential:adj.精髓的,精萃的; nerd:n.呆子;讨厌的人;
I think some of you were, too. 我猜你们的一部分人和我一样。
(Laughter) (笑声)
And you, sir, who laughed the loudest, you probably still are. 还有你,那位先生,笑得最大声,说不定你现在还是呢。
(Laughter) (笑声)
I grew up in a small town in the dusty plains of north Texas, the son of a sheriff who was the son of a pastor . 我成长在德克萨斯州北部荒凉平原上的一个小镇。 我的爸爸是警长,爷爷是一位牧师,
dusty:adj.落满灰尘的; sheriff:n.州长;郡治安官;执行吏; pastor:n.(尤指非英国国教的)牧师;
Getting into trouble was not an option . 所以自找麻烦从来不是一个好的选项。
option:n.选择;可选择的东西;
And so I started reading calculus books for fun. 所以我开始看有关微积分的书来打发时间。
calculus:n.[病理]结石;微积分学;
(Laughter) (笑声)
You did, too. 你也是这样。
That led me to building a laser and a computer and model rockets, and that led me to making rocket fuel in my bedroom. 于是我学着制作了一个激光器,一台电脑,和一个火箭模型, 并且在自己的卧室制取火箭燃料。
Now, in scientific terms, we call this a very bad idea. 现在,从科学的角度而言, 我们把这个叫做一个糟糕透顶的主意。
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
(Laughter) (笑声)
Around that same time, 在差不多同一时间,
Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey " came to the theaters , and my life was forever changed. Stanley Kubrick的“2001:太空漫游”上映了, 我的生活从此改变。
Odyssey:n.奥德赛(古希腊史诗); theaters:n.影剧院,剧院(theater复数);
I loved everything about that movie, especially the HAL 9000. 我喜欢关于那部电影的一切, 特别是 HAL 9000。
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
Now, HAL was a sentient computer designed to guide the Discovery spacecraft from the Earth to Jupiter . HAL是一台有情感的电脑, 为引导“发现一号”飞船从地球 前往木星而设计出来。
sentient:adj.有感情的;有感觉力的;意识到的;n.有知觉的人; spacecraft:n.[宇]宇宙飞船;航天器; Jupiter:n.[天]木星;朱庇特(罗马神话中的宙斯神);
HAL was also a flawed character, for in the end he chose to value the mission over human life. HAL 也是一个有缺陷的角色, 因为在结尾他将任务的价值置于生命之上。
flawed:adj.有缺陷的;有瑕疵的;有裂纹的; mission:n.使命,任务;代表团;布道;v.派遣;向…传教;
Now, HAL was a fictional character, but nonetheless he speaks to our fears, our fears of being subjugated by some unfeeling , artificial intelligence who is indifferent to our humanity . HAL 是一个虚构的角色, 但尽管如此,他挑战了我们的恐惧, 被一些冷漠无情的 人工智能(AI) 所统治的恐惧。
fictional:adj.虚构的;小说的; nonetheless:adv.尽管如此,但是; subjugated:v.征服;制伏;使屈服;使服从;(subjugate的过去分词和过去式) unfeeling:adj.无情的,冷酷的;无感觉的; artificial intelligence:n.人工智能; indifferent to:无兴趣,不关心;冷漠;不在乎; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
I believe that such fears are unfounded . 但我相信这些恐惧只是杞人忧天。
unfounded:adj.未建立的;没有理由的;没有事实根据的;
Indeed, we stand at a remarkable time in human history, where, driven by refusal to accept the limits of our bodies and our minds, we are building machines of exquisite , beautiful complexity and grace that will extend the human experience in ways beyond our imagining. 的确,我们正处于人类历史上 一个值得铭记的时间点, 不甘被自身肉体和头脑所局限, 我们正在制造 那些可以通过我们无法想象的方式 来拓展人类体验的机器, 它们精美,复杂,而且优雅。
remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; refusal:n.拒绝;回绝; exquisite:adj.精致的;细腻的;优美的,高雅的;异常的;剧烈的;n.服饰过于讲究的男子; complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势 grace:n.优雅;恩惠;魅力;慈悲;v.使优美; extend:vt.延伸; vi.延伸;
After a career that led me from the Air Force Academy to Space Command to now, 我在空军学院和航天司令部工作过, 和航天司令部工作过,
career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; Air Force:n.空军; Academy:n.学院;研究院;学会;专科院校;
I became a systems engineer, and recently I was drawn into an engineering problem associated with NASA's mission to Mars . 现在是一个系统工程师。 最近我碰到了一个和NASA火星任务相关的 工程问题。
recently:adv.最近;新近; engineering:n.工程;工程学;v.密谋策划;设计制造;改变…的基因;(engineer的现在分词) associated:adj.有关联的; v.联想; (associate的过去分词和过去式) Mars:n.火星
Now, in space flights to the Moon, we can rely upon mission control in Houston to watch over all aspects of a flight. 当前,前往月球的宇宙飞行, 我们可以依靠休斯顿的指挥中心 来密切关注飞行的各个方面。
rely upon:依靠;依赖;取决于; Houston:n.休斯顿(美国得克萨斯州港市); aspects:n.方面;相位;面貌(aspect的复数);
However, Mars is 200 times further away, and as a result it takes on average 13 minutes for a signal to travel from the Earth to Mars. 但是,火星相比而言多出了200倍的距离, 这使得一个信号从地球到火星 平均要花费13分钟。
as a result:结果;
If there's trouble, there's not enough time. 如果有了麻烦,我们并没有足够的时间来解决。
And so a reasonable engineering solution calls for us to put mission control inside the walls of the Orion spacecraft. 所以一个可靠的工程解决方案 促使我们把一个指挥中枢 放在“猎户星”飞船之中。
reasonable:adj.合理的,公道的;通情达理的; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; Orion:n.猎户星座;俄里翁(希腊神话人物);
Another fascinating idea in the mission profile places humanoid robots on the surface of Mars before the humans themselves arrive, first to build facilities and later to serve as collaborative members of the science team. 在任务档案中的另一个创意 是在人类抵达火星之前,把人形机器人 先一步放在火星表面, 它们可以先建造据点, 然后作为科学团队的合作伙伴驻扎。
fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词) profile:n.轮廓;简介;形象;外形;v.扼要介绍;概述;写简介; humanoid:adj.像人的;n.类人动物; facilities:n.设施;设备;特别装置;特色;场所;(facility的复数) collaborative:adj.合作的,协作的;
Now, as I looked at this from an engineering perspective , it became very clear to me that what I needed to architect was a smart, collaborative, socially intelligent artificial intelligence. 当我从工程师的角度看待这个想法, 对于建造一个聪明,懂得合作, 擅长社交的人工智能的需求 是十分明显的。
perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的; architect:n.建筑师;设计师;创造者; intelligent:adj.有才智的;悟性强的;聪明的;有智力的
In other words, I needed to build something very much like a HAL but without the homicidal tendencies . 换句话说,我需要建造一个和HAL一样, 但是没有谋杀倾向的机器。
homicidal:adj.杀人的;行凶的;有杀人嗜好的;杀气腾腾的; tendencies:趋势;
(Laughter) (笑声)
Let's pause for a moment. 待会儿再回到这个话题。
Is it really possible to build an artificial intelligence like that? 真的有可能打造一个类似的人工智能吗?
Actually, it is. 是的,当然可以。
In many ways, this is a hard engineering problem with elements of AI, not some wet hair ball of an AI problem that needs to be engineered. 在许多方面, 一个困难的工程问题来自于 AI的各个零件, 而不是什么琐碎的AI问题。
elements:n.要素;基本部分;少量;一群;(element的复数)
To paraphrase Alan Turing , 借用Alan Turing的话来说,
paraphrase:n.释义;解释;意译;vt.释义; Turing:n.图灵机(一种可不受储存容量限制的假想计算机);
I'm not interested in building a sentient machine. 我没有兴趣建造一台有情感的机器。
I'm not building a HAL. 我不是要建造HAL。
All I'm after is a simple brain, something that offers the illusion of intelligence. 我只想要一个简单的大脑, 一个能让你以为它有智能的东西。
illusion:n.幻觉,错觉;错误的观念或信仰;
The art and the science of computing have come a long way since HAL was onscreen , and I'd imagine if his inventor Dr. Chandra were here today, he'd have a whole lot of questions for us. 自从HAL登上荧幕,关于编程的技术和艺术 已经发展了许多, 我能想象如果它的发明者Chandra博士今天在这里的话, 他会有很多的问题问我们。
computing:n.计算;计算机技术;信息处理技术;v.计算;求出;(compute的现在分词) come a long way:突飞猛进; onscreen:adj.银幕上的;adv.银幕上; Chandra:n.钱德拉(印度的月神);
Is it really possible for us to take a system of millions upon millions of devices , to read in their data streams, to predict their failures and act in advance ? 我们真的可能 用一个连接了无数设备的系统, 通过读取数据流, 来预测它们的失败并提前行动吗?
devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数); predict:v.预报;预言;预告; in advance:adv.预先,提前;
Yes. 是的。
Can we build systems that converse with humans in natural language ? 我们能建造一个和人类用语言交流的系统吗?
converse:adj.相反的,逆向的;颠倒的;vi.交谈,谈话;认识;n.逆行,逆向;倒;相反的事物; natural language:n.自然语言(自然发展而成,并非人造);
Yes. 能。
Can we build systems that recognize objects, identify emotions , emote themselves, play games and even read lips? 我们能够打造一个能辨识目标,鉴别情绪, 表现自身情感,打游戏,甚至读唇的系统吗?
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; identify:v.识别:鉴定:确认:发现: emotions:n.强烈的感情;激情;情感;(emotion的复数) emote:vi.夸张地表现感情;
Yes. 可以。
Can we build a system that sets goals, that carries out plans against those goals and learns along the way? 我们可以建造一个能设定目标, 通过各种达成目的的方法来学习的系统吗?
Yes. 也可以。
Can we build systems that have a theory of mind? 我们可以建造一个类似人脑的系统吗?
This we are learning to do. 这是我们正在努力做的。
Can we build systems that have an ethical and moral foundation ? 我们可以建造一个有道德和感情基础的系统吗?
ethical:adj.伦理的;道德的;凭处方出售的;n.处方药; moral:n.寓意;品行;教益;adj.道德的;道义上的;道德上的;品行端正的; foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立;
This we must learn how to do. 这是我们必须要学习的。
So let's accept for a moment that it's possible to build such an artificial intelligence for this kind of mission and others. 总而言之, 建造一个类似的用于这类任务的 人工智能是可行的。
The next question you must ask yourself is, should we fear it? 另一个你必须扪心自问的问题是, 我们应该害怕它吗?
Now, every new technology brings with it some measure of trepidation . 毕竟,每一种新技术 都给我们带来某种程度的不安。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; trepidation:n.恐惧;惊恐;忧虑;颤抖;
When we first saw cars, people lamented that we would see the destruction of the family. 我们第一次看见汽车的时候, 人们悲叹我们会看到家庭的毁灭。
lamented:adj.令人遗憾的;被哀悼的;v.哀悼(lament的过去式和过去分词形式); destruction:n.破坏,毁灭;摧毁;
When we first saw telephones come in, people were worried it would destroy all civil conversation. 我们第一次看见电话的时候, 人们担忧这会破坏所有的文明交流。
civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的;
At a point in time we saw the written word become pervasive , people thought we would lose our ability to memorize . 在某个时间点我们看到书写文字的蔓延, 人们认为我们会丧失记忆的能力。
pervasive:adj.普遍的;到处渗透的;流行的; memorize:v.记住;记忆;
These things are all true to a degree, but it's also the case that these technologies brought to us things that extended the human experience in some profound ways. 这些在某个程度上是合理的, 但也正是这些技术 给人类的生活在某些方面 带来了前所未有的体验。
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); extended:adj.延长了的;扩展了的;v.使伸长;扩大;扩展;(extend的过去式和过去分词) profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的;
So let's take this a little further. 我们再稍稍扩展一下。
I do not fear the creation of an AI like this, because it will eventually embody some of our values. 我并不畏惧这类人工智能的诞生, 因为它最终会融入我们的部分价值观。
creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物; eventually:adv.最后,终于; embody:v.具体表现,体现,代表(思想或品质);包括;
Consider this: building a cognitive system is fundamentally different than building a traditional software-intensive system of the past. 想想这个:建造一个认知系统 与建造一个以传统的软件为主的系统有着本质的不同。
cognitive:adj.认知的,认识的; fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 different than:不同于; traditional:传统的,惯例的,
We don't program them. We teach them. 我们不编译它们。我们教导它们。
In order to teach a system how to recognize flowers, 为了教会系统如何识别花朵,
I show it thousands of flowers of the kinds I like. 我给它看了上千种我喜欢的花。
In order to teach a system how to play a game — 为了教会系统怎么打游戏——
Well, I would. You would, too. 当然,我会。你们也会。
I like flowers. Come on. 我喜欢花。这没什么。
To teach a system how to play a game like Go, 为了教会系统如何玩像围棋一样的游戏,
I'd have it play thousands of games of Go, but in the process I also teach it how to discern a good game from a bad game. 我玩了许多围棋的游戏, 但是在这个过程中 我也教会它如何分别差游戏和好游戏。
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; discern:v.识别;觉察出;了解;
If I want to create an artificially intelligent legal assistant, 如果我想要一个人工智能法律助手,
artificially:adv.人工地;人为地;不自然地; legal:adj.法律的;合法的;法定的;
I will teach it some corpus of law but at the same time I am fusing with it the sense of mercy and justice that is part of that law. 我会给它一些法律文集, 但同时我会将 怜悯和正义 也是法律的一部分 这种观点融入其中。
corpus:n.[计]语料库;文集;本金; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; fusing:n.熔断,熔化; v.熔化; mercy:n.仁慈,宽容;怜悯;幸运;善行; justice:n.公平;公正;司法制度;审判;
In scientific terms, this is what we call ground truth, and here's the important point: in producing these machines, we are therefore teaching them a sense of our values. 用一个术语来解释,就是我们所说的真相, 而关键在于: 为了制造这些机器, 我们正教给它们我们的价值观。
To that end, I trust an artificial intelligence the same, if not more, as a human who is well-trained . 正因如此,我相信一个人工智能 绝不逊于一个经过良好训练的人类。
well-trained:adj.训练有素的;良好训练;
But, you may ask, what about rogue agents , some well-funded nongovernment organization ? 但是,你或许会问, 要是流氓组织, 和资金充沛的无政府组织也在利用它们呢?
rogue:n.流氓; v.游手好闲; adj.(野兽)凶猛的; agents:n.代理人,经纪人;原动力;(agent的复数) organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
I do not fear an artificial intelligence in the hand of a lone wolf. 我并不害怕独狼掌控的人工智能。
Clearly, we cannot protect ourselves against all random acts of violence , but the reality is such a system requires substantial training and subtle training far beyond the resources of an individual . 很明显,我们无法从随机的暴力行为中保护自己, 但是现实是,制造这样一个系统 超越了个人所拥有资源的极限, 因为它需要踏实细致的训练和培养。
random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地; violence:n.暴力;侵犯;激烈;歪曲; substantial:adj.大量的;实质的;内容充实的;n.本质;重要材料; subtle:adj.微妙的;精细的;敏感的;狡猾的;稀薄的; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的;
And furthermore , it's far more than just injecting an internet virus to the world, where you push a button, all of a sudden it's in a million places and laptops start blowing up all over the place. 还有, 这远比向世界散播一个网络病毒, 比如你按下一个按钮,瞬间全世界都被感染, 并且在各处的笔记本电脑中开始爆发来的复杂。
furthermore:adv.此外;而且; injecting:v.(给…)注射(药物等);(给…)添加,增加(某品质);(inject的现在分词) all of a sudden:突然地,出乎意料地; laptops:n.便携式电脑;笔记本电脑;(laptop的复数)
Now, these kinds of substances are much larger, and we'll certainly see them coming. 这类东西正在越来越强大, 我们必然会看到它们的来临。
substances:n.[物]物质;基本内容;物品药物(substance的复数);
Do I fear that such an artificial intelligence might threaten all of humanity? 我会害怕一个有可能威胁所有人类的 人工智能吗?
If you look at movies such as "The Matrix ," " Metropolis ," 如果你看过《黑客帝国》,《大都会》,
Matrix:n.[数]矩阵;模型;[生物][地质]基质;母体;子宫;[地质]脉石; Metropolis:n.大都市;首府;重要中心;
'"The Terminator ," shows such as "Westworld," 《终结者》,或者《西部世界》这类电视剧,
Terminator:n.终结者;终止子;明暗界限;
they all speak of this kind of fear. 它们都在表达这种恐惧。
Indeed, in the book "Superintelligence" by the philosopher Nick Bostrom, he picks up on this theme and observes that a superintelligence might not only be dangerous, it could represent an existential threat to all of humanity. 的确,在哲学家Nick Bostrom写的《超级智能》中, 他选择了这个主题, 并且观察到超级智能不仅仅危险, 它还对所有人类的存在造成了威胁。
philosopher:n.哲学家;深思的人;善于思考的人; observes:遵守;观察(observe的第三人称单数); represent:v.代表;表现;描绘;回忆;再赠送; existential:adj.存在主义的;有关存在的;存在判断的;
Dr. Bostrom's basic argument is that such systems will eventually have such an insatiable thirst for information that they will perhaps learn how to learn and eventually discover that they may have goals that are contrary to human needs. Bostrom博士的基础观点认为, 这样的系统迟早会 产生对信息的无止境渴求, 也许它们会开始学习, 并且最终发现它们的目的 和人类的需求背道而驰。
insatiable:adj.贪得无厌的;不知足的; contrary:adj.相反的;对立的;adv.相反地;n.相反;反面;
Dr. Bostrom has a number of followers. Bostrom博士有一群粉丝。
He is supported by people such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking .
Elon:n.埃伦(可溶性显影剂粉末); Musk:n.麝香;麝香鹿;麝香香味; Hawking:n.利用鹰行猎;v.袭击;翱翔;攫取(hawk的现在分词);
With all due respect to these brilliant minds, 虽然要向这些伟大的头脑 致以崇高的敬意,
I believe that they are fundamentally wrong. 但我还是相信他们从一开始就错了。
Now, there are a lot of pieces of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack , and I don't have time to unpack them all, but very briefly , consider this: super knowing is very different than super doing. Bostrom博士的观点有很多地方可以细细体会, 但现在我没有时间一一解读, 简要而言,请考虑这句话: 全知并非全能。
unpack:vt.卸下…;解除…的负担;vi.打开包裹; briefly:adv.简要地;简短地;暂时地;
HAL was a threat to the Discovery crew only insofar as HAL commanded all aspects of the Discovery. HAL成为了对发现一号成员的威胁, 只是因为它控制了发现一号的各个方面。
insofar as:na.在…限度内;
So it would have to be with a superintelligence. 正因如此它才需要是一个人工智能。
It would have to have dominion over all of our world. 它需要对于我们世界的完全掌控。
dominion:n.主权,统治权;支配;领土;
This is the stuff of Skynet from the movie "The Terminator" 这就是《终结者》中的天网,
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: Skynet:n.天网(卫星);天网防火墙;
in which we had a superintelligence that commanded human will, that directed every device that was in every corner of the world. 一个控制了人们意志, 控制了世界各处 各个机器的超级智能。
Practically speaking, it ain't gonna happen. 说实在的, 这完全是杞人忧天。
Practically:adv.实际地;几乎;事实上;
We are not building AIs that control the weather, that direct the tides , that command us capricious , chaotic humans. 我们不是在制造可以控制天气, 引导潮水, 指挥我们这些多变,混乱的人类的人工智能。
tides:n.[海洋]潮汐(tide的复数);v.随潮水漂浮(tide的第三人称单数); capricious:adj.反复无常的;任性的; chaotic:adj.混沌的;混乱的,无秩序的;
And furthermore, if such an artificial intelligence existed, it would have to compete with human economies , and thereby compete for resources with us. 另外,即使这类人工智能存在, 它需要和人类的经济竞争, 进而和我们拥有的资源竞争。
compete:v.竞争;对抗;参加比赛(或竞赛); economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) thereby:adv.从而,因此;在那附近;在那方面;
don't tell Siri this — we can always unplug them. 不要告诉Siri—— 我们可以随时拔掉电源。
Siri:n.iPhone4S上的语音控制功能; unplug:vt.去掉…的障碍物;拔去…的塞子或插头;
(Laughter) (笑声)
We are on an incredible journey of coevolution with our machines. 我们正处于和机器共同演化的 奇妙旅途之中。
incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行; coevolution:n.共同进化(指两个以上相互依存的物种共同进化);
The humans we are today are not the humans we will be then. 未来的人类 将与今天的人类大相径庭。
To worry now about the rise of a superintelligence is in many ways a dangerous distraction because the rise of computing itself brings to us a number of human and societal issues to which we must now attend. 当前对人工智能崛起的担忧, 从各方面来说都是一个危险的错误指引, 因为电脑的崛起 带给了我们许多必须参与的 关乎人类和社会的问题。
distraction:n.注意力分散;消遣;心烦意乱; societal:adj.社会的; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数)
How shall I best organize society when the need for human labor diminishes ? 我应该如何管理社会 来应对人类劳工需求量的降低?
organize:v.组织;安排;处理;分配;管理; diminishes:(使)减少,缩小;减损(diminish的第三人称单数);
How can I bring understanding and education throughout the globe and still respect our differences? 我应该怎样在进行全球化交流和教育的同时, 依旧尊重彼此的不同?
throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
How might I extend and enhance human life through cognitive healthcare ? 我应该如何通过可认知医疗来延长并强化人类的生命?
enhance:v.提高;增强;增进; healthcare:n.医疗保健;健康护理,健康服务;卫生保健;
How might I use computing to help take us to the stars? 我应该如何通过计算机 来帮助我们前往其他星球?
And that's the exciting thing. 这些都很令人兴奋。
The opportunities to use computing to advance the human experience are within our reach, here and now , and we are just beginning. 通过计算机来升级 人类体验的机会 就在我们手中, 就在此时此刻, 我们的旅途才刚刚开始。
here and now:此时此地;立刻;
Thank you very much. 谢谢大家。
(Applause) (掌声)