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EstherDuflo_2010-_战胜贫困的社会实验_
So here it is. You can check: I am short, I'm French, 各位 你们可以看到 我很矮 我是法国人
I have a pretty strong French accent , so that's going to be clear in a moment . 我有很重的法国口音 一会你们就会发现这一点
accent:n.口音;重音;强调;特点;重音符号;v.强调;重读;带…口音讲话; in a moment:立刻;
Maybe a sobering thought and something you all know about. 或者这很触目惊心 你们都知道这些事
sobering:adj.令人警醒的;使人冷静的;v.(使)变得持重,变得冷静;(sober的现在分词)
And I suspect many of you gave something to the people of Haiti this year. 我想你们中的很多人 今年还给海地人捐献了东西
suspect:n.犯罪嫌疑人;v.怀疑;不信任;adj.可疑的; Haiti:n.海地;
And there is something else 但还有些别的事
I believe in the back of your mind you also know. 我相信在你们脑中 你们也知道
That is, every day, 25,000 children die of entirely preventable causes. 就是每天都会有 25,000个孩子丧生 死于完全可以预防的原因
preventable:adj.可预防的;可阻止的;可防止的;
That's a Haiti earthquake every eight days. 那是每八天的海地地震情况
And I suspect many of you probably gave something towards that problem as well, but somehow it doesn't happen with the same intensity . 我想你们中的很多人也许 也想过这个问题 但是 每次灾难的破坏程度不太一样
somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地; intensity:n.强度;强烈;[电子]亮度;紧张;
So why is that? 那么 这是为什么呢？
Well, here is a thought experiment for you. 你们看一下这样一个实验
Imagine you have a few million dollars that you've raised -- maybe you're a politician in a developing country and you have a budget to spend. You want to spend it on the poor: 想象下 你募集了几百万美金 你可能是某个发展中国家的官员 你有个花钱的预算 你想把钱用在帮助贫困上
politician:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩; budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的;
How do you go about it? 你会怎样做？
Do you believe the people who tell you that all we need to do is to spend money? 你会相信这样的人: 他们认为 我们所有该做的就是花钱
That we know how to eradicate poverty , we just need to do more? 我们知道如何消除贫困 我们只是需要做更多
eradicate:vt.根除,根绝;消灭; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
Or do you believe the people who tell you that aid is not going to help, on the contrary it might hurt, it might exacerbate corruption , dependence , etc.? 还是会相信另外一些人: 他们认为 援助没啥用,反而有坏处 它可能助长腐败、依赖性等等
on the contrary:正相反; exacerbate:vt.使加剧;使恶化;激怒; corruption:n.贪污,腐败;堕落; dependence:n.依赖;依靠;信任;信赖;
Or maybe you turn to the past. 或者你会想想过去
After all, we have spent billions of dollars on aid. 毕竟,我们花费了数十亿美金在援助上
Maybe you look at the past and see. 你们看看过去
Has it done any good? 看看援助是否做了些好事
And, sadly, we don't know. 很遗憾,我们不知道
And worst of all, we will never know. 最糟糕的是,我们永远也不会知道
And the reason is that -- take Africa for example. 而原因是——拿非洲作为例子
Africans have already got a lot of aid. 非洲人得到很多援助
These are the blue bars. 就是这些蓝条
And the GDP in Africa is not making much progress. 而非洲的GDP却没咋增长
Okay, fine. How do you know what would have happened without the aid? 好的, 你们如何得知 没有援助会发生什么
Maybe it would have been much worse, or maybe it would have been better. 或许会坏很多 或许会好很多
We have no idea. We don't know what the counterfactual is. 我们不知道 不知道这样假设会如何
counterfactual:adj.反事实的;
There's only one Africa. 只有一个非洲
So what do you do? 那么 你们会怎样做
To give the aid, and hope and pray that something comes out of it? 给援助 然后希望、祈祷它会带了些好处
Or do you focus on your everyday life and let the earthquake every eight days continue to happen? 还是 仅仅关注自己的每日生活 而让每八天一次的地震 继续发生？
The thing is, if we don't know whether we are doing any good, we are not any better than the Medieval doctors and their leeches . 要注意 如果我们不知道 我们是否在做好事 我们就甚至还不如 中世纪的医生和那些寄生虫做得更好
Medieval:adj.中世纪的;原始的;仿中世纪的;老式的; leeches:n.蛭类(leech的复数);v.用水蛭吸…的血(leech的三单形式);
Sometimes the patient gets better, sometimes the patient dies. 有时候病人治好 有时候病人死去
patient:adj.有耐心的,能容忍的;n.病人;患者;
Is it the leeches? Is it something else? 这是因为寄生虫,还是因为别的什么？
We don't know. 我们不知道
So here are some other questions. 还要另外几个问题
They're smaller questions, but they are not that small. 这些问题很小 但又不是那么小
Immunization , that's the cheapest way to save a child's life. 免疫 这是挽救孩子生命 最便宜的方法
Immunization:n.免疫;
And the world has spent a lot of money on it: 世界花了很多钱在免疫上
The GAVI and the Gates Foundations are each pledging a lot of money towards it, and developing countries themselves have been doing a lot of effort. 国际免疫预防联合会（GAVI）和盖茨基金会 都在免疫上投入很多钱 发展国家自身也做了很多努力
Foundations:n.基础;地基;基金会;粉底;(foundations是foundation的复数) pledging:v.保证给予(或做);正式承诺;使保证;典当;(pledge的现在分词)
And yet, every year at least 25 million children do not get the immunization they should get. 然而,每年 至少2500万儿童 不能得到他们本应得到的免疫
So this is what you call a "last mile problem." 这就是所谓的“最后一英里难题” （last mile problem 指人们能得到并正确使用质量好的药物）
The technology is there, the infrastructure is there, and yet it doesn't happen. 我们有技术 我们有基础设施 但是,问题却没有得到解决
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
So you have your million. 那么 当你有百万美金时
How do you use your million to solve this last mile problem? 你怎样花钱 才能解决“最后一英里难题”
And here's another question: 还有另外一个问题
Malaria . Malaria kills almost 900,000 people every year, most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa, most of them under five. 疟疾 疟疾每年夺走 90万人的生命 大多数死者在撒哈拉以南的非洲 大多数年龄小于5岁
Malaria:n.[内科]疟疾;瘴气; Sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区;
In fact, that is the leading cause of under-five mortality . 事实上 疟疾是5岁下儿童的最主要死因
mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运;
We already know how to kill malaria, but some people come to you and say, "You have your millions. How about bed nets?" 我们已经知道如何治愈疟疾 但有些人找到你 并对你说 “你有几百万,不如买蚊帐吧”
Bed nets are very cheap. 蚊帐很便宜
For 10 dollars, you can manufacture and ship an insecticide treated bed net and you can teach someone to use them. 只要10美元,你就能制造并运输 一个经过杀虫剂处理的蚊帐 而且,你能教人们使用蚊帐
manufacture:v.(用机器)大量生产; n.大量制造; insecticide:n.杀虫剂; treated:v.以…态度对待;把…看作;(treat的过去分词和过去式)
And, not only do they protect the people who sleep under them, but they have these great contagion benefits. 此外,蚊帐不仅能保护谁在蚊帐里的人 而且还有巨大的防传染功效
contagion:n.传染病;蔓延;触染;
If half of a community sleeps under a net, the other half also benefits because the contagion of the disease spread. 如果社区里一半的人睡在蚊帐里 另一半也能受惠 因为疾病能传染、扩散
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; other half:n.另一半(指配偶或男友,女友); disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
And yet, only a quarter of kids at risk sleep under a net. 然而,只有四分之一面临疟疾风险的孩子睡在蚊帐里
Societies should be willing to go out and subsidize the net, give them for free, or, for that matter, pay people to use them because of those contagion benefits. 社会应该愿意行动 资助购买蚊帐,并且免费捐赠 或者,在这个问题上,补贴那些使用蚊帐的人 因为蚊帐的防传染功效
subsidize:vt.资助;给与奖助金;向…行贿;
'"Not so fast," say other people. 而另外一些人说 “别这么快”
'"If you give the nets for free, people are not going to value them. “如果你免费提供蚊帐 人们不会珍惜蚊帐
They're not going to use them, or at least they're not going to use them as bed nets, maybe as fishing nets." 他们不会去使用蚊帐 或者至少他们不会把蚊帐当蚊帐使用 而可能是当作鱼网 （蚊帐为bed net,net的意思是”网“）
So, what do you do? 那么,你会怎样做？
Do you give the nets for free to maximize coverage , or do you make people pay in order to make sure that they really value them? 是免费提供蚊帐,以求最大限度的蚊帐覆盖率？ 还是要人们为蚊帐买单 以使他们认识到蚊帐的价值？
maximize:vt.取…最大值;对…极为重视;vi.尽可能广义地解释;达到最大值; coverage:n.覆盖,覆盖范围;
How do you know? 你怎么知道？
And a third question: Education. 第三个问题是 教育
Maybe that's the solution , maybe we should send kids to school. 或许这才是解决之道 或许我们应该送孩子去上学
solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
But how do you do that? 但是你会怎么去做？
Do you hire teachers? Do you build more schools? 你会聘请更多教师？ 你会建更多校舍？
Do you provide school lunch? 你会提供学校午餐吗？
How do you know? 你怎么知道哪种方法更好？
So here is the thing. 这就是问题所在。
I cannot answer the big question, whether aid did any good or not. 我无法回答那个大问题 即 援助是好是坏
But these three questions, I can answer them. 但是,我能回答这三个小问题
It's not the Middle Ages anymore, it's the 21st century. 现在不再是中世纪 而是二十一世纪
Middle Ages:n.中世纪(欧洲历史上从公元1000年到1450年);
And in the 20th century, randomized , controlled trials have revolutionized medicine by allowing us to distinguish between drugs that work and drugs that don't work. 在二十世纪里 随机的、可控的试验 已经将医药革命了 因为它让我们能够区分 有效的药物 和无用的药物
randomized:adj.[数]随机化的,随机的;v.使随机化;做任意排列(randomize的过去分词); revolutionized:adj.革命化的;被彻底改革的;v.彻底改革(revolutionize的过去式); distinguish:vt.区分;辨别;使杰出,使表现突出;vi.区别,区分;辨别;
And you can do the same randomized, controlled trial for social policy . 现在 你可以采用同样的方式: 针对社会政策的 随机的、可控的试验
policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
You can put social innovation to the same rigorous , scientific tests that we use for drugs. 你可以对社会革新施以同样的 精确而又科学的测试 就像我们为药物所做的那样
innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; rigorous:adj.严格的,严厉的;严密的;严酷的; scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
And in this way, you can take the guesswork out of policy-making by knowing what works, what doesn't work and why. 以这种方式, 你可以把推测的成分 从政策制定中区分出来 因为你知道了什么可行 什么不可行 为什么是这样
guesswork:n.猜测;臆测;凭猜测所作之工作; policy-making:adj.决策的;决策性质的;n.决策;
And I'll give you some examples with those three questions. 我会针对这三个问题举一些例子
So I start with immunization. 首先从免疫开始
Here's Udaipur District, Rajasthan. Beautiful. 这是印度拉贾斯坦邦的乌代布尔区 ,非常美丽
Well, when I started working there, about one percent of children were fully immunized . 当我开始在那工作时 约1%的儿童 得到了完全免疫
immunized:adj.免疫的;v.使免疫(immunize的过去式,过去分词形式);
That's bad, but there are places like that. 这很糟糕 但是还有很多地方好不到哪去
Now, it's not because the vaccines are not there -- they are there and they are free -- and it's not because parents do not care about their kids. 现在,并不是因为那里没有疫苗 疫苗在那,而且是免费的 也不因为父母不关心孩子
vaccines:n.[药][计]疫苗;
The same child that is not immunized against measles , if they do get measles , parents will spend thousands of rupees to help them. 一个没有免疫过麻疹的孩子 一旦感染麻疹 父母将要花费 数千卢用于治疗
measles:n.[内科]麻疹;风疹; rupees:n.卢比(rupee复数);
So you get these empty village subcenters and crowded hospitals. 现在 你看到这些空荡荡的乡村中心 和拥挤的医院
So what is the problem? 那么问题在哪？
Well, part of the problem, surely, is people do not fully understand. 部分问题当然是人们不太懂
After all, in this country as well, all sorts of myths and misconceptions go around immunization. 毕竟在这个国家 有各种关于疟疾的 传说和误解.
myths:神话;谬见; misconceptions:n.迷思概念;错误的想法;
So if that's the case, that's difficult, because persuasion is really difficult. 如果这是问题所在, 很麻烦 因为很难说服人们.
persuasion:n.说服;说服力;信念;派别;
But maybe there is another problem as well. 但是 或许还有另外一个问题.
It's going from intention to action. 人们开始从关注它到采取行动
intention:n.意图;目的;意向;愈合;
Imagine you are a mother in Udaipur District, Rajasthan. 想象下你是位母亲 就生活在拉贾斯坦邦的乌代布尔区
You have to walk a few kilometers to get your kids immunized. 你不得不不行几公里才能让孩子得到免疫
And maybe when you get there, what you find is this: 或许当你到达免疫地点时 你会发现
The subcenter is closed. Ao you have to come back, and you are so busy and you have so many other things to do, you will always tend to postpone and postpone, and eventually it gets too late. 副中心关门了 那么你就不得不打道回府 如果你很忙 你有很多事要做 你将一直拖延拖延 直到有一天已经太迟了.
postpone:v.延期;延迟;展缓; eventually:adv.最后,终于;
Well, if that's the problem, then that's much easier. 如果这是问题所在的话 倒是简单很多
Because A, we can make it easy, and B, we can maybe give people a reason to act today, rather than wait till tomorrow. 因为: A 我们能让免疫更容易 B 我们或许 能给人们一个今天就行动的理由 而不是等到明天.
So these are simple ideas, but we didn't know. 这是很简单的想法 但过去我们不知道.
So let's try them. 那么让我们将这些想法付诸行动.
So what we did is we did a randomized, controlled trial in 134 villages in Udaipur Districts. 我们过去的是 随机的、可控的试验 在拉贾斯坦邦的乌代布尔区的134个村庄
So the blue dots are selected randomly . 这些蓝点 是随机选定的.
randomly:adv.随便地,任意地;无目的,胡乱地;未加计划地;
We made it easy -- I'll tell you how in a moment. 我们的做法很简单 一会我就告诉你们.
In the red dots, we made it easy and gave people a reason to act now. 在红点处 我们简单地 告诉人们一个今天就行动的理由。
The white dots are comparisons , nothing changed. 白点处是作为对比,什么也没变
comparisons:n.比较;类似(comparison的复数形式);处于对比状态;
So we make it easy by organizing this monthly camp where people can get their kids immunized. 我们简单地组织 每月营地,在这里人们可以 让孩子得到免疫
organizing:v.组织;安排;处理;分配;管理;(organize的现在分词) monthly:n.月刊:adv.每个月:每月一次:adj.每月的:
And then you make it easy and give a reason to act now by adding a kilo of lentils for each immunization. 然后你就简单地 告诉人们一个今天就行动的理由 通过给每次免疫一公斤扁豆的补助
lentils:n.扁豆;[作物]小扁豆;腌扁豆;鲜扁豆(lentil的复数);
Now, a kilo of lentils is tiny. 现在 一公斤扁豆真是微不足道。
It's never going to convince anybody to do something that they don't want to do. 你永远也不会说服任何人 去做他们不想做的事。
convince:v.使确信;使相信;说服,劝说;
On the other hand , if your problem is you tend to postpone, then it might give you a reason to act today rather than later. 另一方面 如果你的问题是你老是拖延, 那就给你个今天就行动的理由 而不是以后再去做
On the other hand:另一方面;
So what do we find? 那么我们发现了什么？
Well, beforehand , everything is the same. 起初 一切如故
beforehand:adv.事先;预先;adj.提前的;预先准备好的;
That's the beauty of randomization . 这就是随机试验的好处
randomization:n.[生]随机化现象;拉丁方阵随机化;随机取样;随机策略;
Afterwards, the camp -- just having the camp -- increases immunization from six percent to 17 percent. 后来 这些营地 仅仅是每月营地 将免疫率从6%增长到17%
That's full immunization. 是指完全免疫
That's not bad, that's a good improvement . 还不错,很大的进步
improvement:n.改进,改善;
Add the lentils and you reach to 38 percent. 加了扁豆后 数字达到了38%
So here you've got your answer. 现在你就知道答案了
Make it easy and give a kilo of lentils, you multiply immunization rate by six. 简单点 给一公斤扁豆 就将免疫率乘以6
multiply:vt.乘; vi.乘; v.多样地; adj.多层的;
Now, you might say, "Well, but it's not sustainable . 现在 你会说 ”很好,可这是不可持续的
sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的;
We cannot keep giving lentils to people." 我们不能总是给扁豆”
Well, it turns out it's wrong economics, because it is cheaper to give lentils than not to give them. 结果是 这是错误的经济学 因为给扁豆 比不给扁豆要便宜
Since you have to pay for the nurse anyway, the cost per immunization ends up being cheaper if you give incentives than if you don't. 既然 你总是要为护士付费 每次免疫费用 最终是给激励时比不给时要便宜
incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施;
How about bed nets? 蚊帐又该如何？
Should you give them for free, or should you ask people to pay for them? 你是免费发放 还是让人们付费？
So the answer hinges on the answer to three simple questions. 答案取决于 三个简单问题的答案
hinges:n.铰链;合叶;v.给(某物)装铰链;(hinge的第三人称单数和复数)
One is: If people must pay for a bed net, are they going to purchase them? 第一个问题是如果人们必须为蚊帐付费 他们还会买吗？
purchase:n.购买;采购;购买的东西;购买项目;v.购买;采购;
The second one is: 第二个问题是
If I give bed nets for free, are people going to use them? 如果蚊帐是免费的 人们还会用吗？
And the third one is: 第三个问题是
Do free bed nets discourage future purchase? 免费蚊帐会导致日后不再购买蚊帐吗？
discourage:v.阻止;劝阻;阻拦;使灰心;
The third one is important because if we think people get used to handouts , it might destroy markets to distribute free bed nets. 第三个问题很重要 因为 如果我们认为人们习惯了救济后 将会破坏发放免费蚊帐的市场
get used to:开始习惯于 handouts:n.讲义;宣传册子,宣传品(handout的复数形式); distribute:v.分发;分配;分销;分散;
Now this is a debate that has generated a lot of emotion and angry rhetoric . 现在 这个争论已经 带来了很多感情和愤怒的言辞。
debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词) emotion:n.强烈的感情;激情;情感; rhetoric:n.修辞,修辞学;华丽的词藻;adj.花言巧语的;
It's more ideological than practical , but it turns out it's an easy question. 这更理想主义而非实用主义, 但又回答了一个简单的问题。
ideological:adj.思想的;意识形态的; practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课;
We can know the answer to this question. 我们可以知道问题的答案
We can just run an experiment. 我们只要做下试验
And many experiments have been run, and they all have the same results, so I'm just going to talk to you about one. 很多试验 都有相同的结果 接下来 我会给你们讲一个
And this one that was in Kenya, they went around and distributed to people vouchers , discount vouchers. 这个试验是在肯尼亚做的 他们到处走动 分发给村民 优惠券 折扣券
distributed:adj.分布的;分散的;v.分发;分配;使分布(distribute的过去分词和过去式) vouchers:n.付款凭单;[法]证明人;抵用券(voucher的复数); discount:n.折扣;vt.低估;打折扣;打折出售
So people with their voucher could get the bed net in the local pharmacy . 然后 人们用优惠券 可以在当地的要点买到蚊帐
pharmacy:n.药房;配药学,药剂学;制药业;一批备用药品;
And some people get 100 percent discount, and some people get 20 percent discounts , and some people get 50 percent discount, etc. 有些人得到100%折扣 有些是20%折扣 有些事50%折扣 等等
discounts:n.优惠,折价; v.打折扣(discount的三单形式);
And now we can see what happens. 现在我们可以看看发生了什么
So, how about the purchasing ? 若是要购买会如何
purchasing:n.购买;采购;v.买;购买;采购;(purchase的现在分词)
Well, what you can see is that when people have to pay for their bed nets, the coverage rate really falls down a lot. 你可以看到 当人们不得不为蚊帐付费时 蚊帐覆盖率大幅下降
So even with partial subsidy , three dollars is still not the full cost of a bed net, and now you only have 20 percent of the people with the bed nets, you lose the health immunity , that's not great. 即使有部分补助- 3美元依然不是蚊帐的完全花费 现在你只有20%的人拥有蚊帐 你失去了[覆盖率] 那样不好
partial:adj.部分的;不完整的;片面的;有偏见的; subsidy:n.补贴;津贴;补助金; immunity:n.免疫力;豁免权;免除;
Second thing is, how about the use? 第二件事是 年轻人会如何
Well, the good news is, people, if they have the bed nets, will use the bed nets regardless of how they got it. 好消息是 当人们拥有蚊帐时 他们会使用蚊帐 不管蚊帐是如何得到的
regardless:adj.不管的; v.不顾后果地;
If they get it for free, they use it. 他们免费得到蚊帐 会使用
If they have to pay for it, they use it. 他们付费得到蚊帐 也会使用
How about the long term? 长期情况如何呢？
In the long term, people who got the free bed nets, one year later, were offered the option to purchase a bed net at two dollars. 长远看来 得到免费蚊帐的人们 一年后 面临花两美元 买一个蚊帐的选择
option:n.选择;可选择的东西;
And people who got the free one were actually more likely to purchase the second one than people who didn't get a free one. 免费获得蚊帐的人们 实际上更可能买第二个蚊帐 相比没得到免费蚊帐的人而言
So people do not get used to handouts; they get used to nets. 所以 人们没有习惯于救济 而是习惯于蚊帐！
Maybe we need to give them a little bit more credit. 或许我们应该更相信他们
So, that's for bed nets. So you will think, "That's great. 那些就是关于蚊帐的 你会想“太好了
You know how to immunize kids, you know how to give bed nets." 你知道怎样免疫 你知道怎样发放蚊帐”
But what politicians need is a range of options . 但是政客们需要的是一组选择
politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数) options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式)
They need to know: Out of all the things I could do, what is the best way to achieve my goals? 他们需要知道: 在所有这些我能做的事当中 哪一个是能最好地实现目标的方式？
So suppose your goal is to get kids into school. 假如你的目标是让孩子们上学
suppose:v.推断:假定:假设:设想:
There are so many things you could do. You could pay for uniforms , you could eliminate fees, you could build latrines , you could give girls sanitary pads , etc., etc. 有这么多事可做 你可以为制服买单 你可以降低费用 你可以建造公厕 你可以给女孩提供卫生垫 等等
uniforms:n.制服;军服;军人;v.使穿制服;(uniform的复数第三人称单词) eliminate:v.消除;排除; latrines:n.(营地等的)厕所;(尤指)茅坑,便坑;(latrine的复数) sanitary:adj.卫生的,清洁的;n.公共厕所; pads:n.软垫,护垫; v.填充,覆盖,保护; (pad的第三人称单数和复数)
So what's the best? 那么最好的是什么？
Well, at some level, we think all of these things should work. 某种程度上而言 我们认为 所有这些事都该做
So, is that sufficient ? If we think they should work intuitively , should we go for them? 那么 这些足够吗？ 比如, 假如我们凭直觉认为这些应该有效 我们应该去做这些事吗？
sufficient:adj.足够的;充分的; intuitively:adv.直观地;直觉地;
Well, in business, that's certainly not the way we would go about it. 在商业里 这显然不是我们做事的方式
Consider for example transporting goods. 考虑下这个例子 运输货物
transporting:v.运输,运送,输送;传播;(transport的现在分词)
Before the canals were invented in Britain before the Industrial Revolution , goods used to go on horse carts . 在运河被发明之前 英国在工业革命前 货物是通过马车运输
Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; carts:n.运货马车; v.用马车运送; (cart的第三人称单数和复数)
And then canals were built, and with the same horseman and the same horse, you could carry ten times as much cargo . 接着运河被修建后 用同样的马夫和同样的马匹 你可以运输十倍于之前的货物
horseman:n.骑马者;马术师; cargo:n.(船或飞机装载的)货物;
So should they have continued to carry the goods on the horse carts, on the ground, that they would eventually get there? 那么 他们应该继续 用马车在路上运输货物吗？ 反正他们最终总是能到达目的地
Well, if that had been the case, there would have been no Industrial Revolution. 如果 现实是这样 就不会发生工业革命
So why shouldn't we do the same with social policy? 那么 为什么我们不应以同样方式来制定社会政策？
In technology, we spend so much time experimenting, fine-tuning , getting the absolute cheapest way to do something, so why aren't we doing that with social policy? 在科技领域 我们花费了大量时间 做实验 调节 获得绝对最便宜的方式去做某事 那么 为什么我们没有以同样方式来制定社会政策？
fine-tuning:n.微调;细调;v.调整(fine-tune的ing形式);
Well, with experiments, what you can do is answer a simple question. 通过做实验 你可以做到的是 回答一个简单的问题
Suppose you have 100 dollars to spend on various interventions . 假如你有100美元 可以用于各种干预措施
interventions:n.[法]干预,干涉;处置(intervention的复数);
How many extra years of education do you get for your hundred dollars? 用你的几百美元 可以得到多少年额外的教育？
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外:
Now I'm going to show you what we get with various education interventions. 现在我会告诉你 各种教育干预能带来什么
So the first ones are if you want the usual suspects , hire teachers, school meals, school uniforms, scholarships . 最先的答案 是一些普遍的假设: 请老师 学校午餐 学校制服 奖学金
suspects:v.怀疑;不信任;(suspect的第三人称单数) scholarships:n.奖学金;学问;学术;学术研究;(scholarship的复数)
And that's not bad. For your hundred dollars, you get between one and three extra years of education. 这都不错 用你的一百美金 你可以得到一到三年的额外教育
Things that don't work so well is bribing parents, just because so many kids are already going to school that you end up spending a lot of money. 不太好的事是贿赂家长 仅仅因为很多孩子已经开始上学 你终止了花费大量金钱
bribing:v.向(某人)行贿;贿赂(bribe的现在分词)
And here are the most surprising results. 这儿是最让人惊讶的结果
Tell people the benefits of education, that's very cheap to do. 告诉人们教育的益处 这佯做很便宜
So for every hundred dollars you spend doing that, you get 40 extra years of education. 你花费在这件事的每一百美元 你将得到40年额外教育
And, in places where there are worms , intestinal worms , cure the kids of their worms. 在那些有寄生虫的地方 蛔虫 治疗有蛔虫的小孩
worms:n.蠕虫;寄生虫;幼虫;v.蠕动,曲折行进;(worm的第三人称单数和复数) intestinal:adj.肠的;
And for every hundred dollars, you get almost 30 extra years of education. 用每一百美元 你将得到几乎30年的额外教育
So this is not your intuition , this is not what people would have gone for, and yet, these are the programs that work. 这不复合你的直觉 这不是人们希望的 然而 这些项目很有效
intuition:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识;
We need that kind of information, we need more of it, and then we need to guide policy. 我们需要那样的信息 我们需要更多 然后 我们需要引导政策
So now, I started from the big problem, and I couldn't answer it. 好的 我是从那个大问题开始的 我不能回答它
And I cut it into smaller questions, and I have the answer to these smaller questions. 然后 我将它分为几个小问题 而我能回答这些小问题
And they are good, scientific, robust answers. 这些回答是很好的、科学的、有力的回答
robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的;
So let's go back to Haiti for a moment. 我们回过头来谈谈海地
In Haiti, about 200,000 people died -- actually, a bit more by the latest estimate . 在海地 大约20万人丧身 事实上 最新的估计比这个数字还要多
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本;
And the response of the world was great: 世界的反应时强烈的
response:n.响应;反应;回答;
Two billion dollars got pledged just last month, so that's about 10,000 dollars per death. 过去一个月 募集了20亿美元 大约是 每一个死亡1万美元
pledged:v.保证给予(或做);正式承诺;抵押(pledge的过去分词和过去式)
That doesn't sound like that much when you think about it. 你仔细想想 其实这并不像听起来那么多
But if we were willing to spend 10,000 dollars for every child under five who dies, that would be 90 billion per year just for that problem. 但是 如果我们愿意为每个去世的小于5岁的孩子 花费1万美元 那将是每年900美元 仅仅是为那个问题
And yet it doesn't happen. 然而 这并没有发生
So, why is that? 那 这是为什么呢？
Well, I think what part of the problem is that, in Haiti, although the problem is huge, somehow we understand it, it's localized . 我认为部分问题在于 尽管海地的问题很大 可是我们总能懂一些 我们就能定位问题
localized:adj.局部的;地区的;小范围的;v.定位(localize的过去分词);
You give your money to Doctors Without Borders, you give your money to Partners In Health, and they'll send in the doctors, and they'll send in the lumber , and they'll helicopter things out and in. 你捐钱给无国界医生组织 你捐钱给健康伙伴组织(Partners in Health) 他们会送医生过去 他们会送物品过去 他们会用直升飞机运东西进进出出
lumber:vi.伐木; vt.砍伐木材; n.木材;
And the problem of poverty is not like that. 但是贫困的问题并非如此
So, first, it's mostly invisible; second, it's huge; and third, we don't know whether we are doing the right thing. 首先 它通常是看不见的 其次 它是很严重的 最后 我们不清楚我们所做的是否正确
There's no silver bullet . 没有任何绝招可用
silver:n.银; v.给…镀(或包)银; adj.银色的; bullet:n.子弹;只选某党全部候选人的投票;豆子;vi.射出;迅速行进;
You cannot helicopter people out of poverty. 你不能用直升飞机将人们从贫困中运出
And that's very frustrating . 这真是让人沮丧
frustrating:adj.令人沮丧的;v.使沮丧;(frustrate的现在分词)
But look what we just did today. 但是看看我们今天所做的
I gave you three simple answers to three questions: 我给你们三个问题的三个简单答案
Give lentils to immunize people, provide free bed nets, deworm children. 让免疫[更便利] 提供免费蚊帐 给孩子打蛔虫
With immunization or bed nets, you can save a life for 300 dollars per life saved. 通过免疫或者蚊帐 你可以用300美元拯救一条生命
With deworming , you can get an extra year of education for three dollars. 通过打蛔虫 你可以用300美元 得到一年额外的教育
deworming:v.除寄生虫(deworm的现在分词);
So we cannot eradicate poverty just yet, but we can get started. 我们不能立刻消除贫困 但是我们可以开始行动
And maybe we can get started small with things that we know are effective . 或许我们能以那些 我们知道是有效的方式开始
effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象;
Here's an example of how this can be powerful. 这个例子告诉我们这样做多么强有力
Deworming. 打蛔虫
Worms have a little bit of a problem grabbing the headlines. 蛔虫不会引起新闻头条的一丝主义
a little bit of a:一点点了; grabbing:v.抓住;夺得;利用,抓住(机会)(grab的现在分词)
They are not beautiful and don't kill anybody. 他们不漂亮 他们不杀死人
And yet, when the young global leader in Davos showed the numbers I gave you, they started Deworm the World. 然而 当年轻的全球领袖 在达沃斯 展示这些我告诉你们的数字时 他们开始了”世界除虫“行动
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
And thanks to Deworm the World, and the effort of many country governments and foundations, 20 million school-aged children got dewormed in 2009. 幸亏有这个世界除虫行动 以及很多国家政府和基金会的努力 2009年有2千万学龄儿童得到除虫
school-aged:学龄期的; dewormed:vt.除去(狗等)身上的虫;
So this evidence is powerful. 这个证据是强有力的
evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
It can prompt action. 它能推动行动
prompt:n.提示; v.提示; adj.迅速; v.准时地;
So we should get started now. 我们现在就应开始行动
It's not going to be easy. 现在 这不是件容易的事
It's a very slow process . 这是很漫长的过程
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
You have to keep experimenting, and sometimes ideology has to be trumped by practicality . 你必须坚持试验 有时候 必须用实用性来鼓吹想法
ideology:n.意识形态;思想意识;观念学; trumped:v.出王牌赢(牌); (trump的过去分词和过去式) practicality:n.实用性,实际性;实际,实例;
And sometimes what works somewhere doesn't work elsewhere . 有时候 在此地有效的方式在彼处失效
elsewhere:adv.在别处;到别处;
So it's a slow process, but there is no other way. 这是很漫长的过程 但是有其他放肆
These economics I'm proposing , it's like 20th century medicine. 我所建议的经济学 就像20实际的药物
proposing:v.提议;建议;打算;计划;求婚;(propose的现在分词)
It's a slow, deliberative process of discovery. 这是一个漫长,很慎重 发现过程
deliberative:adj.审议的;慎重的;
There is no miracle cure, but modern medicine is saving millions of lives every year, and we can do the same thing. 没有魔法疗法 但是现代药物 每年都在挽救数以百万计的生命 而我们可以做到同样的事
miracle:n.奇迹,奇迹般的人或物;惊人的事例;
And now, maybe, we can go back to the bigger question that I started with at the beginning . 现在 或许我们能回归到那个 我一开始就提出的大问题
at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始;
I cannot tell you whether the aid we have spent in the past has made a difference, but can we come back here in 30 years and say, "What we have done, it really prompted a change for the better ." 我不能告诉你 过去的援助花费是否起了作用 但是 30年后我们可以回到这里 然后说 ”我们所做的一切 真的促进了事情往好的方向改变“
prompted:v.促使;导致;提示;给(演员)提词;(prompt的过去分词和过去式) change for the better:改善;
I believe we can and I hope we will. 我相信我们可以做到 我希望我们能够做到
Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) (掌声)