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ErikBrynjolfsson_2013-_增长的关键_与机器的竞赛_
Growth is not dead. 成長還沒停止
(Applause) （掌聲）
Let's start the story 120 years ago, when American factories began to electrify their operations, igniting the Second Industrial Revolution . 故事從 120 年前說起 美國工廠開始電器化運作 帶動了第二次工業革命
electrify:v.使电气化;使通电;使兴奋; igniting:v.点火(ignite的ing形式); Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命;
The amazing thing is that productivity did not increase in those factories for 30 years. Thirty years. 但驚人的是 三十年中,那些工廠的生產力並沒有提升 整整三十年
productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力;
That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire. 這段時間足以讓一代的經理退休了
You see, the first wave of managers simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors, but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage of electricity 's flexibility . 我們可以看到,第一批經理 只不過是把蒸汽機換成電動機而已 他們並沒有重新設計工廠 讓它利用電的多變性
redesign:vt.重新设计;n.重新设计;新设计; take advantage of:利用; electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪; flexibility:n.灵活性;弹性;适应性;
It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes , and then productivity soared , often doubling or even tripling in those factories. 下個世代開始發明新的工作程序 生產力因此大增 常常是原來工廠的兩倍,甚至是三倍
processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式); soared:v.飙升(soar的过去分词);骤然上升; tripling:v.成为三倍;使增至三倍;(triple的现在分词)
Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology , like the steam engine before it. 電力是一種通用目的技術的例子 出現較早的蒸汽機也是一樣
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
General purpose technologies drive most economic growth, because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations , like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign. 通用目的技術是帶動經濟發展的主力 因為它能帶動一連串有互補性的創新 像是燈泡,沒錯,工廠因而改頭換面
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; unleash:vt.发泄;突然释放;使爆发; cascades:n.[水文]小瀑布;叶棚(cascade的复数);v.瀑布似地落下(cascade的三单形式); complementary:adj.补足的,补充的; innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革;
Is there a general purpose technology of our era ? 那現代有通用目的技術存在嗎？
era:n.新时期;纪元;年代;新时代;
Sure. It's the computer. 當然有,就是電腦
But technology alone is not enough. 但只靠科技還不夠
Technology is not destiny . 科技不能主導命運
destiny:n.命运,定数,天命;
We shape our destiny, and just as the earlier generations of managers needed to redesign their factories, we're going to need to reinvent our organizations and even our whole economic system. 是我們掌握自己的命運 就像早期的經理 需要重新打造他們的工廠一樣 我們也需要重建一個組織 甚至是重塑整個經濟體制
reinvent:v.以新形象示人;以新形式出现; organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构;
We're not doing as well at that job as we should be. 我們並沒有達到應有的水準
As we'll see in a moment , productivity is actually doing all right, but it has become decoupled from jobs, and the income of the typical worker is stagnating . 我們馬上就會了解 生產力是完全沒有問題的 但生產力與工作背道而馳 而且,一般工人的收入也減少了
in a moment:立刻; decoupled:adj.不挂钩的;v.解耦,[电]退耦(decouple的过去式和过去分词); typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的; stagnating:vi.停滞;淤塞;变萧条;vt.使淤塞;使沉滞;使萧条;
These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed as the end of innovation, but they are actually the growing pains of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age. 有時候我們在創新的盡頭 會對這些問題有錯誤的判斷 但事實上這是一種成長必要的代價 我和安德魯．邁克菲 (Andrew McAfee)將其稱為「新機器時代」
misdiagnosed:v.错误地或判断,断定;(misdiagnose的过去式和过去分词) growing pains:n.发育期痛;青春期的感情焦虑;(企业)发展初期的困难;
Let's look at some data. 我們來看看一些資料
So here's GDP per person in America. 這是美國每人的國內生產毛額
There's some bumps along the way, but the big story is you could practically fit a ruler to it. 線上有些高低起伏,但重點是 你會發現它的路徑與直線符合
bumps:碰撞(bump的第三人称单数);碰撞(bump的复数); practically:adv.实际地;几乎;事实上;
This is a log scale , so what looks like steady growth is actually an acceleration in real terms. 這是對數比例尺,所以看起來是穩定成長 但事實上,它是加速進行著
scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢; steady:adj.稳定的; v.使稳定; v.稳定地; n.关系固定的情侣; acceleration:n.加速,促进;[物]加速度;
And here's productivity. 而這是生產力
You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s, but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution, when factories were learning how to electrify their operations. 大家可以看到在 70 年代中期,成長漸緩 但這和第二次工業革命的時間吻合 當時工廠正在學著如何電器化運作
a little bit of a:一点点了; slowdown:n.减速;怠工;降低速度;
After a lag , productivity accelerated again. 漸緩一段時間後,生產力再度急遽上升
lag:v.缓慢移动;发展缓慢;滞后;落后于;n.滞后,间隔;adj.慢的;最后的 accelerated:v.(使)加速;加速;加快(accelerate的过去分词和过去式)
So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes ." 所以或許「歷史不會自己重演 但有時不可否認會有幾分相似。」
rhymes:n.押韵(rhyme的复数);尾韵;v.押韵(rhyme的第三人称单数形式);
Today, productivity is at an all-time high, and despite the Great Recession , it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s, the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s. 現在,生產力是前所未有的高 儘管是在經濟大蕭條的期間 2000 年以來還是比 90 年代成長得更快 喧囂動盪的 90 年代還是比70 或 80 年代增加更快
all-time:adj.空前的;全部时间的;历来的; despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; Recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回; roaring:adj.咆哮的; n.咆哮; v.咆哮; (roar的现在分词)
It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution. 比第二次工業革命時成長更快
And that's just the United States. 而這只是美國而已
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
The global news is even better. 全球的表現更是優秀
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate in the past decade than ever in history. 全球所得在過去十年 以前所未有的驚人速度成長
Worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地;
If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress, because the new machine age is more about knowledge creation than just physical production. 不過,這些數據事實上低估了我們進步的程度 因為新機器時代 強調的是知識的創造 而非只是實際的產量
understate:vt.少说,少报;保守地说;有意轻描淡写;vi.保守地说;有意轻描淡写; creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物; physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查;
It's mind not matter, brain not brawn , ideas not things. 怎麼想比怎麼做來得重要要動腦而不是靠蠻力 想法大於產物本身
brawn:n.发达的肌肉;膂力;腌制好的野猪肉;
That creates a problem for standard metrics , because we're getting more and more stuff for free, like Wikipedia , Google , Skype , and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk. 而這產生了測量標準的問題 因為免費的東西越來越多 像是維基百科、谷歌、網路電話（Skype） 他們把東西放到網路上甚至是現在這篇 TED 演講
standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; metrics:n.度量;作诗法;韵律学; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: Wikipedia:维基百科; Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; Skype:n.网络电话(一个网络语音沟通工具);
Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right? 有免費的東西是好事,對吧？
Sure, of course it is. 當然是好事
But that's not how economists measure GDP. 但經濟學家可不是這樣衡量國內生產毛額的
Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics . 免費,在國內生產毛額統計上代表權重為零
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
According to the numbers, the music industry is half the size that it was 10 years ago, but I'm listening to more and better music than ever. 根據調查顯示,音樂產業的規模 只有十年前的二分之一 但我現在聽到的音樂,比起以前進步很多
According to:根据,据说;
You know, I bet you are too. 我想你們也有這種感覺
bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿;
In total, my research estimates that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year in free goods and services on the Internet. 整體來說,我的研究估計 國內生產毛額每年少算超過三千億美元 忽略了網路上提供的免費產品及服務
estimates:n.估计;估价;估计的成本;v.估价;估算(estimate的第三人称单数和复数)
Now let's look to the future. 現在我們放眼未來
There are some super smart people who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth, but to understand the future of growth, we need to make predictions about the underlying drivers of growth. 有些非常聰明的人 認為我們已經發展到了窮途末路 但要了解未來的發展 我們必須對成長潛在的驅動力 做些預測
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); underlying:adj.根本的; v.构成…的基础; (underlie的现在分词)
I'm optimistic , because the new machine age is digital , exponential and combinatorial . 我抱持樂觀的態度,因為新機器時代 是數位化、指數化及組合化的時代
optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键; exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数; combinatorial:adj.组合的;
When goods are digital, they can be replicated with perfect quality at nearly zero cost, and they can be delivered almost instantaneously . 當產品數位化,就能夠複製 幾乎不用花半毛錢,就能有很好的品質 而且可以立即傳送
replicated:重复的; instantaneously:adv.即刻;突如其来地;
Welcome to the economics of abundance . 歡迎來到經濟蓬勃的時代
abundance:n.丰度;丰富;大量;富足;
But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world. 世界數位化有個比較其次的好處
subtler:微妙的;精细的;敏感的;狡猾的(subtle的比较级); digitization:n.[计]数字化,数位化,数码化;
Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress. 測量是科學及進步的重要指標
Measurement:n.测量;度量;长度; lifeblood:n.生机的根源;生命必须的血液;命脉;命根子;
In the age of big data, we can measure the world in ways we never could before. 在充斥大量資料的時代 我們可以用過去辦不到的方法來衡量現在的世界
Secondly, the new machine age is exponential. 第二,新機器時代是指數化的時代
Computers get better faster than anything else ever. 電腦比任何東西跑得更快
A child's Playstation today is more powerful than a military supercomputer from 1996. 現在小朋友的遊戲機（Playstation） 比 1996 年軍隊的超級電腦更進步
Playstation:n.游戏机; military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人; supercomputer:n.[计]巨型计算机,超级计算机;
But our brains are wired for a linear world. 但我們的大腦是習慣線性世界的
linear:adj.线的,线型的;直线的,线状的;长度的;
As a result , exponential trends take us by surprise. 因此,指數化的趨勢讓我們大吃 一驚
As a result:结果; trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
I used to teach my students that there are some things, you know, computers just aren't good at, like driving a car through traffic. 過去我都教學生說,有些事 你知道嗎？電腦根本做不來 像開車通過擁擠的車潮
(Laughter) （笑聲）
That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen because we just rode down Route 101 in, yes, a driverless car. 沒錯,這張照片是我和安迪,像瘋子一樣在大笑 因為我們剛下國道 101 沒錯,就在一台無人駕駛的車子裡
grinning:v.露齿而笑;咧着嘴笑;n.露齿的笑;咧着嘴笑;(grin的现在分词) madmen:n.疯子,狂人;精神病患者; Route:n.路线;路途;固定线路;途径;v.按某路线发送; driverless:无人驾驶的;
Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial. 第三,新機器時代是組合化的時代
The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up, like low-hanging fruit, but the reality is that each innovation creates building blocks for even more innovations. 想法停滯就是想法用完了 輕而易舉 但事實上,每一種創新 都是激盪出更多創新的墊腳石
building blocks:(儿童玩的)积木;建筑砌块;堆积木;建筑砖块;基石;
Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks, an undergraduate student of mine built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users. 舉例來說,大約幾個禮拜前 我的一位大學生 開發了一個應用程式,最後使用者高達 130 萬
undergraduate:n.本科生; ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究;
He was able to do that so easily because he built it on top of Facebook, and Facebook was built on top of the web, and that was built on top of the Internet, and so on and so forth. 他輕而易舉就能辦到 因為他是在臉書上建立的 而臉書是個網站 網站又建立在網路之上 等等的關聯
Now individually , digital, exponential and combinatorial would each be game-changers. 現在個人數位化、指數化及組合化 分別都能改變這場遊戲
individually:adv.个别地,单独地;
Put them together, and we're seeing a wave of astonishing breakthroughs , like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah or leap tall buildings in a single bound . 把這些通通集結起來,我們會看到 一連串驚人的突破 像是機器人,能在工廠工作跑得跟印度豹一樣快 或是一躍就能上高樓
astonishing:adj.令人十分惊讶的;v.使十分惊讶;使吃惊;(astonish的现在分词) breakthroughs:突破; leap:n.跳越;跳跃;跳高;骤变;v.跳;跳跃;跳越;猛冲; bound:n.跳跃:v.跳跃着跑:形成…的边界(或界限)adj.一定会:很可能会:
You know, robots are even revolutionizing cat transportation . 其實,機器人甚至改變了 貓的運輸方式
revolutionizing:vt.发动革命;彻底改革;宣传革命;vi.革命化;从事革命; transportation:n.运输;运输系统;运输工具;流放;
(Laughter) （笑聲）
But perhaps the most important invention, the most important invention is machine learning. 但或許最重要的發明 最重要的發明是讓機器學習
Consider one project: IBM's Watson. 想想這個計畫:IBM 的沃森（Watson）
These little dots here, those are all the champions on the quiz show " Jeopardy ." 這些點顯示的是 智力節目《危險邊緣》裡所有的冠軍選手
quiz:n.小测验;知识竞赛;v.盘问;查问;询问; Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地;
At first, Watson wasn't very good, but it improved at a rate faster than any human could, and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart to my class at MIT, 一開始,沃森表現不佳 但它進步的速度超乎常人 就在戴維．費魯奇 （Dave Ferrucci）給我在麻省理工學院的學生 看這張圖的不久後
improved:adj.改良的:v.改进:改善(improve的过去分词和过去式)
Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion. 沃森打敗了《危險邊緣》的世界冠軍
At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood . 七歲,沃森差不多還在童年時期
childhood:n.童年;幼年;孩童时期
Recently , its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised . 最近,沃森的老師讓它在無人指導的情況下上網
Recently:adv.最近;新近; surf:v.冲浪;进行冲浪运动;(互联网上)浏览;n.激浪;拍岸浪花; unsupervised:adj.无人监督的;无人管理的;
The next day, it started answering questions with profanities . 隔天,它開始以髒話回答問題
profanities:n.亵渎;不敬的言语;
Damn . (Laughter) 該死！（笑聲）
Damn:v.谴责;该死;n.诅咒;adj.可恶的;
But you know, Watson is growing up fast. 但你們知道嗎？沃森長得很快
It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them. 它參加客服中心工作的考試,全數通過
It's applying for legal , banking and medical jobs, and getting some of them. 它申請法律、銀行及醫療方面的工作 有一些通過了
applying:v.申请,请求;使用;应用;(apply的现在分词) legal:adj.法律的;合法的;法定的;
Isn't it ironic that at the very moment we are building intelligent machines, perhaps the most important invention in human history, some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating? 這種情況下 我們發明了智慧型機器 或許還是人類史上最重要的發明 卻有人說創新停滯了,這不是很諷刺嗎？
ironic:adj.讽刺的;反话的; intelligent:adj.有才智的;悟性强的;聪明的;有智力的
Like the first two industrial revolutions , the full implications of the new machine age are going to take at least a century to fully play out, but they are staggering . 像第一及第二次工業革命 新機器時代涵蓋的所有層面 至少要一個世紀才會完全落幕 但這樣的革命是很驚人的
revolutions:n.革命,转数(revolution的复数形式); implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数); staggering:adj.惊人的; v.蹒跚; (stagger的现在分词)
So does that mean we have nothing to worry about? 所以這代表我們沒有後顧之憂了嗎？
No. Technology is not destiny. 不,科技不能主導命運
Productivity is at an all time high, but fewer people now have jobs. 生產力是前所未有的高 但有工作的人變少了
We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever, but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen. 過去十年來,我們創造了史無前例的財富 但多數的美國人,所得卻下降了
wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人:
This is the great decoupling of productivity from employment , of wealth from work. 這是很嚴重的排擠效應 生產力排擠就業率 財富排擠了工作
decoupling:n.去耦;v.去耦(decouple的现在分词); employment:n.使用;职业;雇用;
You know, it's not surprising that millions of people have become disillusioned by the great decoupling, but like too many others, they misunderstand its basic causes. 其實,這種情況不意外,幾百萬人 對於這樣的排擠效應感到失望 但就像大多數人一樣 他們誤解了基本的原因
disillusioned:adj.醒悟的; v.使幻想破灭(disillusion的过去分词); misunderstand:v.误解;误会;
Technology is racing ahead, but it's leaving more and more people behind. 科技發展神速 把越來越多人拋諸腦後
Today, we can take a routine job, codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions, and then replicate it a million times. 現在的例行公事,我們都可以 將其改編成一組機器可讀的指令 然後複製一百萬遍
codify:vt.编纂;将...编成法典;编成法典; machine-readable:adj.[计]机器可读的;可用计算机处理的;
You know, I recently overheard a conversation that epitomizes these new economics. 最近我偶然聽到一則對話 可以象徵這些經濟狀況
overheard:v.无意中听到;偷听;(overhear的过去分词) epitomizes:vt.摘要;概括;成为…的缩影;
This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore. 有個男的說:「不,我不要再請稅務公司了
TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did, but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate ." 報稅軟體能完成所有報稅員該做的事 而且更快、更便宜還更精確。」
preparer:n.填表人,调制机; accurate:adj.精确的;
How can a skilled worker compete with a $39 piece of software? 一個專業的工作人員 要怎麼跟一個 39 塊美金的軟體競爭呢？
skilled:adj.熟练的;有技能的;需要技能的; compete:v.竞争;对抗;参加比赛(或竞赛);
She can't. 她沒辦法比
Today, millions of Americans do have faster, cheaper, more accurate tax preparation, and the founders of Intuit have done very well for themselves. 現在,的確有幾百萬美國人 能更快、更便宜又更精確的報稅 這報稅軟體的創辦人 他們自己也做得很好
founders:n.创办人;造物者(founder的复数); Intuit:vt.由直觉知道;vi.凭直觉知道;
But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs. 但是 17% 的報稅員丟了工作
preparers:n.填表人,调制机;
That is a microcosm of what's happening, not just in software and services, but in media and music, in finance and manufacturing , in retailing and trade -- in short, in every industry. 這只是一部分的縮影 不只是軟體和服務方面還包括媒體及音樂 財務及製造業,零售及貿易 簡單來說,是所有產業
microcosm:n.微观世界;小宇宙;作为宇宙缩影的人类;缩图(等于microcosmos); media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费; manufacturing:n.制造业;工业;v.制造;生产(manufacture的现在分词); retailing:n.零售业;v.零售(retail的ing形式);
People are racing against the machine, and many of them are losing that race. 人類在跟機器比速度 大部分都輸了
What can we do to create shared prosperity ? 該怎麼做才能共同創造繁榮的社會？
prosperity:n.繁荣,成功;
The answer is not to try to slow down technology. 答案不會是放慢科技發展的速度
Instead of racing against the machine, we need to learn to race with the machine. 我們不要去對抗機器 而是應該學會去跟機器一起競爭
That is our grand challenge. 這是很大的挑戰
The new machine age can be dated to a day 15 years ago when Gary Kasparov, the world chess champion, played Deep Blue, a supercomputer. 新機器時代 可以回朔到 15 年前的某一天 國際西洋棋世界冠軍加里．卡斯帕羅夫（Gary Kasparov） 跟一台超級電腦:深藍（Deep Blue）,一起比賽
The machine won that day, and today, a chess program running on a cell phone can beat a human grandmaster . 那天電腦贏了 而現在,一支手機裡的西洋棋遊戲 都可以打敗一位西洋棋大師
grandmaster:n.大师;最高段的棋手;
It got so bad that, when he was asked what strategy he would use against a computer, 這種情況真慘,當被問到 他會用什麼方法來對抗電腦
strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;
Jan Donner , the Dutch grandmaster, replied, "I'd bring a hammer ." 荷蘭西洋棋大師約翰．唐納（Jan Donner）回答: 「我會帶鐵鎚去。」
Donner:n.唐纳; Dutch:adj.荷兰的; n.荷兰人; v.费用平摊地; hammer:n.锤子; v.锤打;
(Laughter) （笑聲）
But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion. 但現在電腦已經不是西洋棋世界冠軍了
Neither is a human, because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament where teams of humans and computers could work together, and the winning team had no grandmaster, and it had no supercomputer. 冠軍也不是人 因為卡斯帕羅夫舉辦了一種自由式比賽 這種比賽讓人類和電腦 可以一起合作 贏家不是大師 也不是超級電腦
organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式) freestyle:n.自由式;adj.自由式的;adv.自由地;随心所欲地; tournament:n.锦标赛,联赛;比赛;
What they had was better teamwork, and they showed that a team of humans and computers, working together, could beat any computer or any human working alone. 冠軍有的是團隊合作 他們展現了人類和電腦 是如何並肩作戰,打敗任何一台電腦 或是任何一個人孤軍奮戰
Racing with the machine beats racing against the machine. 和電腦一起競爭 比對抗電腦來得有效
Technology is not destiny. 科技不能主導我們的命運
We shape our destiny. 是我們主導自己的命運
Thank you. 謝謝大家
(Applause) （掌聲）