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EricBerlow_2010G-_怎样化杂为简_
Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed when you're faced with a complex problem? 当你面对着一个复杂的问题时 你是否曾经觉得很不知所措？
overwhelmed:v.受打击,压倒;淹没;(overwhelm的过去分词和过去式) complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes. 我希望能在三分钟内为此做些改变。
So, I hope to convince you that complex doesn't always equal complicated . 因此,我希望说服你其实复杂 并不总是繁杂。
convince:v.使确信;使相信;说服,劝说; complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
So for me, a well-crafted baguette , fresh out of the oven , is complex, but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread is complicated. 对我来说,一个刚出炉的精心烘培法国面包 是复杂的, 但是咖喱绿橄榄罂粟洋葱奶酪面包 是繁杂的。
baguette:n.法国棍子面包;成长方形的宝石; oven:n.炉,灶;烤炉,烤箱; curry:vt.用咖喱烧,给…加咖喱粉;梳刷;鞭打;n.咖哩粉,咖喱;咖哩饭菜; olive:n.橄榄;橄榄树;橄榄色;adj.橄榄的;橄榄色的; poppy:n.罂粟花;罂粟属植物;深红色;adj.罂粟科的;
I'm an ecologist , and I study complexity . I love complexity . 我是一个生态学家,我研究复杂性,我爱复杂性。
ecologist:n.生态学者; complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势
And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species . 我研究自然界中,物种彼此之间的关系。
interconnectedness:n.互联性; species:n.[生物]物种;种类;
So here's a food web, or a map of feeding links between species that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California. 这是一个食物网 或者是一张食物链关联图 描述了加州高山湖的物种关系。
Alpine:adj.阿尔卑斯山的,高山的;
And this is what happens to that food web when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before. 而这是食物网现在的样子 非原生的鱼类大量涌入后
stocked:v.存货;贮备,贮存(食物、书籍等)(stock的过去分词和过去式) non-native:adj.非本地;非原生;n.外乡人;
All the grayed-out species disappear . 所有灰色的物种消失了。
disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在;
Some are actually on the brink of extinction . 有些濒临绝种。
on the brink of:即将要;濒于;濒临;在…的边缘; extinction:n.绝种;
And lakes with fish have more mosquitoes , even though they eat them. 有鱼的湖会有更多蚊子,虽然鱼会吃蚊子。
mosquitoes:n.蚊子(mosquito的复数);
These effects were all unanticipated , and yet we're discovering they're predictable . 这些影响都是预想不到的, 但我们发现他们是可被预测的。
unanticipated:adj.意料之外的;不曾预料到的;未预料到的; predictable:adj.可预言的;
So I want to share with you a couple key insights about complexity we're learning from studying nature that maybe are applicable to other problems. 所以我想要分享几个想法 关于在自然界学到的复杂性 或许可以沿用到其他问题。
insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数); applicable:adj.可适用的;可应用的;合适的;
First is the simple power of good visualization tools to help untangle complexity and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before. 首先,视觉化工具所带来的简单力量 可以帮助我们理清复杂的关系 并且引导你思考你从未想过的问题。
visualization:n.形象化;清楚地呈现在心; untangle:vt.清理;整顿;解开…纠结;
For example, you could plot the flow of carbon through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem , or the interconnections of habitat patches for endangered species in Yosemite National Park . 例如,你可以在图中找出相似处 在生态系统中的一堆链接中 或在优胜美地国家公园 标出濒绝物种栖息地的关系。
plot:n.情节;阴谋;布局;小块土地;v.密谋;暗中策划;(在地图上)标出;绘制(图表); carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的; corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; ecosystem:n.生态系统; interconnections:n.相互连接;彼此连系; habitat:n.[生态]栖息地,产地; patches:n.斑点;小块;补丁;眼罩;v.打补丁;缝补;修补;(patch的第三人称单数和复数) endangered:v.使遭危险;危及;危害;(endanger的过去分词和过去式) Yosemite:n.约塞米蒂国家公园(位于美国加利福尼亚州中部); National Park:n.国家公园;
The next thing is that if you want to predict the effect of one species on another, if you focus only on that link, and then you black box the rest, it's actually less predictable 其次,如果你想要预测 物种间彼此的影响, 如果你只专注那个链接, 你就会忽略掉其它的信息, 但是你会更难做出推测
black box:黑箱;(装在飞机上记录飞行情况等的)密封仪器;
than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links -- and from that place, hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most. 如果你退回上一步,纳入整个系统,包括所有物种、关联 从这里着手 把焦点集中在相关的影响范围效果会更好。
hone:v.磨练,训练;磨(刀);n.磨刀石; sphere:n.球;领域;球体;球形;v.使成球形;包围;把…放在球内;使处于天体之间; influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
And we're discovering, with our research, that's often very local to the node you care about within one or two degrees. 而我们在研究中发现 人们通常只关注非常靠近目标附近的一些内容 一到两层左右。
node:n.节点;结点;茎节;(根或枝上的)节;
So the more you step back, embrace complexity, the better chance you have of finding simple answers, and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with. 所以你退的越多,并广纳复杂, 你就越有机会找到简单的答案, 而且是和你起先着手的简单答案不同。
embrace:n.拥抱,怀抱;v.拥抱;乐意采纳(思想、建议等);信奉;包括; different than:不同于;
So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem courtesy of the U.S. government. 现在换个角度,用美国政府来看 真正复杂的问题。
gears:n.[机]齿轮,[机]传动装置(gear的复数形式); v.以齿轮连起,安排(gear的三单形式); courtesy:n.礼貌;好意;恩惠;adj.殷勤的;被承认的;出于礼节的;
This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan . 这是美国对阿富汗镇暴策略的示意图。
counterinsurgency:n.反暴动;镇压叛乱;反破坏; strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略; Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago. 几个月前出现在纽约时报头版
front page:adj.(新闻等的)头版的;重要的;轰动的;vt.把…登在头版;
Instantly ridiculed by the media for being so crazy complicated. 马上被媒体嘲笑着 因为这张图表实在是太过复杂。
ridiculed:v.嘲笑;奚落;讥笑;(ridicule的过去分词和过去式) media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
And the stated goal was to increase popular support for the Afghan government. 而他们的目标是为了要得到声援 对阿富汗政权的声援。
Clearly a complex problem, but is it complicated? 这很明显的是个复杂的问题, 但它繁杂吗？
Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times, 我看到报纸的这篇头版时,
I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to. 我心里想着,“太好了,总算有类似的东西了。
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
I can sink my teeth into this." 我可以拿出来大讲特讲。”
So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever, a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network. 来吧,全世界有史以来第一次 要把错综复杂的图表变成有条理的关系图。
premiere:adj.首位的; vi.初次公演; vt.初次公演; n.初次的演出; spaghetti:n.意大利式细面条;
The circled node is the one we're trying to influence -- popular support for the government. 圈起来的症结点是我们试图想要去影响 对政府的支持声浪。
And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees, three degrees away from that node and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence. 因此,我们可以看,第一层,第二层 第三层与结点间的关系 然后去除图表中的四分之三没有在范围里的影响。
eliminate:v.消除;排除; three-quarters:adj.四分之三的;n.四分之三;
Within that sphere, most of those nodes are not actionable , like the harshness of the terrain , and a very small minority are actual military actions. 在这个范围中 大部分的结点是不可动的,如险峻的地势 少数是军事行动。
nodes:n.茎节;(根或枝上的)瘤,节,结;节点;(node的复数) actionable:adj.可控告的;可提起诉讼的; harshness:n.严肃;刺耳;粗糙的事物; terrain:n.[地理]地形,地势;领域;地带; minority:n.少数民族;少数派;未成年;adj.少数的;属于少数派的; military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories : active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs and fair, transparent economic development and provisioning of services. 大部分是非暴力的,并且可分为两大类别: 道德抗争与宗教信条的激烈交战 与公平、透明的经济发展 和供应服务。
non-violent:adj.非暴力的; categories:n.(人或事物的)类别,种类(category的复数) engagement:n.婚约;约会;交战;诺言;n.参与度; ethnic:adj.种族的;人种的; rivalries:n.竞争(rivalry的复数);对手; religious:adj.宗教的;虔诚的;严谨的;修道的;n.修道士;尼姑; transparent:adj.透明的;显然的;坦率的;易懂的; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; provisioning:n.准备金提取;v.供应补给品(provision的ing形式);
I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram in 24 seconds. 我不知道这些是什么,可是我能在24秒内通过图表 分析出这些东西。
decipher:n.密电译文;v.解释;
When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid. 当你看到一个像这样的图表,你不需要感到害怕。
I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved . 我要你觉得开心,感到松了一口气。
relieved:adj.释然的; v.缓解;
Because simple answers may emerge . 因为简单的答案会浮现。
emerge:v.浮现;显现;暴露;露出真相;
We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies on the other side of complexity. 我们发现在自然界里,复杂的反面 其实就是简单
simplicity:n.朴素;简易;天真;愚蠢; on the other side:另一面;在另一边;
So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity, the better chance you have of zooming in on the simple details that matter most. 所以对任何问题,你越是往后退,涵盖复杂, 你越是有机会聚焦 在重要的简单的细节上。
Thank you. 感谢各位。
(Applause) (鼓掌)