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EmmaBelcher_2019X-_关于核武器，我们应该问这_3_个问题_-
So you know when you're doubled over in pain and you're wondering, is it your appendix or maybe you ate something funny? 你们有没有过 身体特别的难受的时候, 你在想是不是得了阑尾炎, 或者是吃坏了肚子？
appendix:n.附录;阑尾;附加物;
Well, when that happens to me, I call my friend Sasha -- 我碰上这种事, 我会给我的朋友萨莎打电话——
Sasha is a doctor -- and I say, "Should I rush to the nearest emergency room in a panic ? 萨莎是个医生—— 我说“我是不是得 火急火燎得跑去最近的急救中心？”
emergency room:n.急诊室; panic:adj.恐慌的;n.惊恐;恐慌;惶恐不安;v.惊慌失措;
Or am I OK to relax and just wait it out ?" 还是我可以放轻松, 等它自己好就行？”
relax:v.放松,休息;松懈,松弛;变从容;休养; just wait it out:请静候结果;
Yes, I am that annoying friend. 没错,我就是那个烦人的朋友。
annoying:adj.烦人的;使生气的;使烦恼的;v.使生气;打扰;骚扰;(annoy的现在分词)
But in September 2017, friends of mine were suddenly calling me for my professional opinion. 不过在 2017 年的九月份, 我的一些朋友突然打电话找我, 来征求我专业的看法。
professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员;
And no, I'm not a doctor, but they were asking me questions of life and death. 而且不,我并不是个医生, 不过他们问我的是关于生与死的问题。
So what was going on in September of 2017? 那么 2017 年九月发生了什么呢？
Well, North Korea was suddenly and scarily all over the news. 朝鲜在一夜之间, 遍布各大新闻媒体,引得人心惶惶。
scarily:adv.害怕地,惊恐地;
Kim Jong-un had tested missiles potentially capable of hitting major US cities, and President Trump had responded with tweets of "fire and fury ." 金正恩进行了导弹的试射试验, 而这些导弹具有 打击美国主要城市的潜力, 总统特朗普在推特中以“炮火与怒火”回击。
missiles:n.导弹;发射物;投掷物;(missile的复数) potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的; Trump:n.王牌;主牌花色;v.出王牌赢(牌);;赢;胜过;打败; responded:v.回答,回应;作出反应;响应;反应灵敏;(respond的过去式和过去分词) tweets:n.啾啾声,小鸟叫声(tweet的复数形式);v.鸣叫(tweet的三单形式); fury:n.狂怒;暴怒;激怒者;
And there was real concern that tensions would escalate to a potential war or even nuclear weapons use. 人们非常担忧 目前紧张的局势有可能恶化, 升级成一场潜在的战争, 或甚至要使用核武器。
concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; tensions:张力;紧张; escalate:vi.逐步增强;逐步升高;vt.使逐步上升; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
So what my friends were calling and asking was: 所以我的朋友打电话来问的是:
Should they panic or were the OK to relax? 他们是否要开始恐慌, 还是说他们可以放心？
But really, they were asking me a fundamental question: "Am I safe?" 其实他们都在问一个基本问题: “我现在安全吗？”
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
While I was reassuring them that, no, they didn't need to worry just yet, the irony of their question dawned on me. 在我劝他们放轻松,没事的, 他们还不必为此担心的时候, 我意识到他们问题中很讽刺的一点。
reassuring:adj.安心的;可靠的;鼓气的;v.使放心(reassure的现在分词); irony:n.讽刺;反语;具有讽刺意味的事;adj.铁的;似铁的; dawned:n.天亮了;v.破晓(dawn的过去分词);
What they hadn't really thought about is that we've all been living under a much larger cloud for decades -- potentially a mushroom cloud -- without giving it much thought. 他们没有想到的是, 我们在这种乌云笼罩的状况下 生活数十年了—— 甚至还可能是蘑菇云—— 我们却没去多想。
mushroom cloud:n.(核爆炸形成的)蘑菇云;
Now it's not surprising that friends of mine and many others like them don't know much about nuclear weapons and don't think about them. 那么如今我的朋友和许多其他人 不怎么了解也不去关注核武器, 也就不奇怪了。
After all, the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia, tension abated , we started dismantling nuclear weapons, and they started to become a relic of the past. 毕竟冷战结束后, 美国和俄罗斯间局势缓和, 我们开始销毁核武器, 然后这种武器逐渐成为历史。
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) abated:vt.减轻;减少;废除;vi.减轻;失效; dismantling:v.拆开,拆卸;废除,取消;(dismantle的现在分词) relic:n.遗迹,遗物;废墟;纪念物;
Generations didn't have to grow up with the specter of nuclear war hanging over their heads. 新一代人不需要在 核战争的在阴霾下长大。
specter:n.幽灵;妖怪;恐怖之物;
And there other reasons people don't like to think about nuclear weapons. 还有其他的原因让人 不喜欢去想核武器的事。
It's scary, overwhelming . 它很吓人,让人无所适从。
overwhelming:adj.势不可挡的; v.压倒; (overwhelm的现在分词)
I get it. 我能理解。
Sometimes I wish I could have chosen a cheerier field to study. 有时我也希望我当初选个 愉快一点的研究领域。
cheerier:活泼的;愉快的(cheery的比较级);
(Laughter) （笑声）
Perhaps tax law would have been more uplifting . 也许学税法更能振奋人心一些。
uplifting:adj.令人振奋的;使人开心的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
But in addition to that, people have so many other things to think about in their busy lives, and they'd much prefer to think about something over which they feel they have some semblance of control, 但是除此之外, 人们在繁忙的生活中 有那么多别的东西要去考虑, 他们更愿意去为那些 看似在他们控制之下的事情思考,
in addition to:除…之外; prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升; semblance:n.外貌;假装;类似;
and they assume that other people, smarter than they on this topic, are working away to keep us all safe. 并且他们都以为总有别人, 比他们自己在这方面更聪明的人, 正在全力解决这个问题, 好让大家都平平安安。
assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现;
And then, there are other reasons people don't talk about this, and one is because we, as nuclear experts, use a whole lot of convoluted jargon and terminology to talk about these issues : 另外人们不爱讨论核武器还有其他原因, 其中之一便是我们核专家, 会用很多晦涩难懂的行话和专业术语 来谈论这些问题:
convoluted:adj.复杂的;费解的;旋绕的;v.盘绕;缠绕(convolute的过去分词); jargon:n.行话,术语;黄锆石; terminology:n.术语,术语学;用辞; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数)
CVID, ICBM, JCPOA. CVID、ICBM、JCPOA。
It's really inaccessible for a lot of people. 这对很多人来说是难以理解的。
inaccessible:adj.难达到的;难接近的;难见到的;
And, in reality, it actually sometimes I think makes us numb to what we're really talking about here. 并且事实上我认为有时
And what we are really talking about here is the fact that, while we've made dramatic reductions in the number of nuclear weapons since the Cold War, right now, there are almost 15,000 in the world today. 而我们在此真正想要讨论的东西, 实际上是尽管我们从冷战以来 已经在数量上大幅减少核武器, 但是现在世界上仍然有 将近一万五千枚核弹头。
dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; reductions:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图;(reduction的复数)
15,000. 一万五千枚。
The United States and Russia have over 90 percent of these nuclear weapons. 美国和俄罗斯拥有超过 90% 的核武器。
If you're wondering, these are the countries that have the rest. 如果你想知道的话, 这些国家拥有剩下的核武器。
But they have far fewer, ranging in the sort of 300-ish range and below. 但是他们拥有的数量少太多了, 在大约 300 多的范围内或者更少。
Adding to this situation is the fact that we have new technologies that potentially bring us new challenges. 更加雪上加霜的是, 我们拥有的最新科技 可能会给我们带来全新的挑战。
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数);
Could you imagine, one day, countries like ours and others potentially ceding decisions about a nuclear strike to a robot, based on algorithms? 你可以想象吗？ 某一天类似我们的和他们的国家 有可能把执行核打击的决策大权 交给一个基于计算机算法的 机器人来决定。
ceding:v.割让;让给;转让;(cede的现在分词)
And what data do they use to inform those algorithms? 那么他们要用什么数据 来支持这些算法呢？
inform:v.通知;告诉;报告;告发;告密;
This is pretty terrifying . 这太可怕了。
terrifying:adj.令人恐惧的;骇人的;极大的;v.使害怕,使恐怖;(terrify的现在分词)
So adding to this are terrorism potential, cyberattacks, miscalculation , misunderstanding . 除此之外还有潜在的恐怖主义、 网络攻击、计算差错和各国间的误会。
terrorism:n.恐怖主义; miscalculation:n.算错;误算; misunderstanding:n.误解;误会;意见不一;v.误解;误会(misunderstand的现在分词)
The list of nuclear nightmares tends to grow longer by the day . 核武器带来的噩梦 只会一天比一天多。
nightmares:n.噩梦;梦魇;极其糟糕的情况;(nightmare的复数) by the day:按日;按日计算;
And there are a number of former officials, as well as experts, who worry that right now, we're in greater danger than we were in various points in the Cold War. 并且有不少前任政府官员 和专家们 担心我们现在正处于 比冷战的各个时刻更大的危险之中。
as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且;
So this is scary. 这是很恐怖。
What can we do? 那我们能做些什么？
Well, thankfully , 谢天谢地的是,
thankfully:adv.感谢地;感激地;
["Duck and Cover"] 【“卧倒并掩护”】
we don't have to rely on the advice from the 1950s. 我们不需要依靠 50 年代的建议。
rely:vi.依靠;信赖;
(Laughter) （笑声）
We can take some control, and the way we do that is by starting to ask some fundamental questions about the status quo and whether we are happy with the way it is. 我们可以对此有所控制, 而为了实现这个, 我们要对于现状问几个基本的问题, 以及我们是否觉得现状可以接受。
status quo:n.现状;原来的状况;
We need to begin asking questions of ourselves and of our elected officials, and I'd like to share three with you today. 我们要向我们自己提问, 向政府官员们提问, 而今天我很乐意和你们分享三个问题。
The first one is, "How much nuclear risk are you willing to take or tolerate ?" 第一个是, “你愿意承担多大的核风险？”
tolerate:v.容忍;忍受;容许;包容;
Right now, nuclear policy depends on deterrence theory. 现在,核武器政策取决于威慑理论。
policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; deterrence:n.威慑;妨碍物;挽留的事物;
Developed in the 1950s, the idea is that one country's nuclear weapons prevents another country from using theirs. 这套理论在 50 年代提出, 意思是一个国家拥有核武器 会防止其他国家用他们的核武器。
So you nuke me, I nuke you, and we both lose. 你核爆我,我就核爆你, 我们都是输家。
nuke:n.核武器;核能发电厂;核潜艇;vt.以核武器攻击;adj.核武器的;
So in a way, there's a stalemate . 所以某种程度上说, 双方陷入僵局。
stalemate:n.僵局;陷于困境;vt.使僵持;使陷入困境;vi.僵持;陷入僵局;
No one uses their weapons, and we're all safe. 没人用他们的武器, 我们就都安全了。
But this theory has real questions. 但这个理论有些实际的问题。
There are experts who challenge this theory and wonder: Does it really work this way in practice ? 一些挑战这个理论的专家提出: 现实中真的会这样吗？
in practice:在实践中;实际上,事实上;
It certainly doesn't allow for mistakes or miscalculations . 这套理论不能容忍 一点失误和计算错误。
miscalculations:n.算错;误算;
Now, I don't know about you, but I feel pretty uncomfortable gambling my future survival , yours, and our future generations', on a theory that is questionable and doesn't allow any room for a mistake. 我不知道你们怎么想, 不过这让我非常不安, 要把你我的 下一代的存亡作为赌注, 全押在一个存在争议 并且毫无容错率的理论上。
gambling:n.赌博;投机;v.赌博;打赌;(gamble的现在分词) survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物; questionable:adj.可疑的;有问题的;
It makes me even more uncomfortable to be threatening the evaporation of millions of people on the other side of the Earth. 让我更加不安的是, 要去威胁用核武器 让地球另一边 数以百万计的人全部蒸发。
evaporation:n.蒸发;消失; on the other side:另一面;在另一边;
Surely we can do better for ourselves, drawing on our ingenuity to solve complex problems, as we have in the past. 我们当然自己可以做得更好, 运用我们的创造力去解决复杂的问题, 就像我们过去一样。
ingenuity:n.心灵手巧,独创性;精巧;精巧的装置; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
After all, this is a man-made , human-made -- 终究,这都是人造的。 人类制造的——
man-made:adj.人造的;人工的;合成的;
I shouldn't say "man," because women were involved -- a human-made problem. 我不该说人（man）, 因为女人也参与其中—— 一个人类制造的问题。
involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词)
We have human solutions that should be possible. 我们有应该可行的、 更有人性的解决方案。
So, next question: "Who do you think should make nuclear decisions?" 所以下一个问题: “你认为谁应该决定使用核武器？”
Right now, in this democracy , in the United States, one person gets to decide whether or not to launch a nuclear strike. 现在在我们这个民主政体,在美国, 有一个人 可以决定是否发动核打击。
democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治; whether or not:是否…; launch:v.发射(导弹,火箭等); n.发射;
They don't have to consult anybody. 这个人不需要咨询任何人。
consult:v.咨询;请教;商量;查阅;查询;参看;
So that's the president. 这就是我们的总统。
He or she can decide -- within a very limited amount of time, under great pressure, potentially, depending on the scenario , maybe based on a miscalculation or a misunderstanding -- they can decide the fate of millions of lives: yours, mine, our community's. 他或她可以 在非常有限的时间内, 根据不同情况, 也许在巨大的压力之下, 也许基于错误的计算或误解的基础上, 他们可以决定数以百万计的人的命运: 你的、我的以及整个社会的。
limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本;
And they can do this and launch a nuclear strike, potentially setting in motion the annihilation of the human race . 总统可以这样做, 发动一次核打击, 很可能推动毁灭全人类的进程。
motion:n.动作;移动;手势;请求;意向;议案;v.运动;打手势; annihilation:n.灭绝;消灭; human race:n.人类;
Wow. 哇哦。
This doesn't have to be our reality, though, and in fact, in a number of other countries that have nuclear weapons, it's not, including countries that are not democracies . 不过我们并不用接受这样的现实, 实际上很多别的, 拥有核武器的国家并不是这样的, 包括不是民主政体的国家。
democracies:民主;
We created this system. We can change it. 我们创造这套体制, 我们也可以改变它,
And there's actually a movement underway to do so. 而且有正在进行的运动在为此努力。
underway:adj.进行中的;起步的;航行中的;n.[公路]水底通道;
So this leads me to my third question: "What do your elected officials know about nuclear weapons, and what types of decisions are they likely to take on your behalf ?" 那这就引出我的第三个问题: “你们的政府官员对核武器有多少了解, 并且他们会代表你做出什么样的决定？“
behalf:n.代表;利益;
Well, Congress has a very important role to play in oversight of and interrogating US nuclear weapons policy. 确实国会在其中扮演非常重要的角色, 去监督和讯问美国的核武政策。
Congress:n.国会;代表大会;会议;社交; oversight:n.疏忽;忽略;失察;负责;照管; interrogating:v.讯问;审问;盘问;查询;(interrogate的现在分词)
They can decide what to fund, what not to fund, and they represent you. 他们可以决定给什么拨款,不给什么拨款, 而且他们代表你们。
represent:v.代表;表现;描绘;回忆;再赠送;
Now unfortunately , since the end of the Cold War, we've seen a real decline in the level of understanding, on Capitol Hill , about these issues. 现在很不幸的是,自冷战结束以来, 我们看到的是华盛顿在这些问题上 理解的程度有真真切切的下降。
unfortunately:adv.不幸地; decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降; Capitol Hill:美国国会;美国国会山;
While we are starting to see some terrific new champions emerge, the reality is that the general lack of awareness is highly concerning , given that these people need to make critically important decisions. 在我们开始见证新的 优秀的政治家崭露头角的同时, 现实却是这种普遍缺乏的意识, 让人非常担忧, 尤其是这些人要负责做出极其重要的决定。
terrific:adj.极好的;极其的,非常的;可怕的; awareness:n.意识,认识;明白,知道; highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; concerning:prep.关于;涉及;v.影响,牵涉(某人);与…有关;涉及;(concern的现在分词) critically:adv.精密地;危急地;批评性地;用钻研眼光地;
To make matters worse, the political partisanship that currently grips Washington also affects this issue. 更糟糕的是, 在政府内根深蒂固的党派偏见与纷争 也同样对此有影响。
partisanship:n.党派性;党派偏见;对党派的忠诚; currently:adv.当前;一般地; grips:vbl.抓爪;
This wasn't always the case, though. 不过这并不是总是这样的。
At the end of the Cold War, members from both sides of the aisle had a really good understanding about the nuclear challenges we were facing and worked together on cooperative programs. 在冷战结束时,对抗的双方都具有 对于我们所面对的核问题的深刻理解, 并且共同进行合作项目。
aisle:n.通道,走道;侧廊; cooperative:adj.合作的;协作的;同心协力的;协助的;n.合作企业;合作社组织;
They recognized that nuclear risk reduction was far too important to allow it to succumb to political partisanship. 他们认识到核武器的削减实在太重要了, 以至于政治斗争都要为它让路。
recognized:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;(recognize的过去分词和过去式) succumb:vi.屈服;死;被压垮;
They created programs such as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which sought to lock down and eliminate vulnerable nuclear material in the former Soviet Union. 他们开启了一些项目, 比如《纳恩-卢格减少威胁合作计划》, 该计划旨在控制与销毁 前苏联不稳定的核原料。
sought:v.seek(寻求、寻找)的过去式和过去分词形式; eliminate:v.消除;排除; vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的; Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人;
So we need to return to this era of bipartisanship , mutual problem-solving that's based on understanding and awareness about the challenges we face and the real nuclear dangers. 所以我们需要回到那个 当年双边合作的年代, 根据对于我们面对的挑战 和实际核危机的意识和理解, 以此来相互解决问题。
bipartisanship:n.两党合作;两党制; mutual:adj.共同的;相互的,彼此的; problem-solving:adj.问题解决的;n.解决问题;找出问题的答案;
And that's where you come in. 而这就是你出场的时候。
Public pressure is important. 公众的压力很关键。
Leaders need a constituent base to act. 领导人需要一群忠实的选民 才会行动起来。
constituent:n.构成要素;选民;成分;adj.组成的;构成的;
So create that constituent base, by asking them some simple questions. 那么为了创造这群忠实的选民, 问他们一些简单的问题。
Ask them, "What do you know about nuclear weapons?" 问他们,“你对核武器了解多少？”
'"Do you have a nuclear expert on your staff? “你的麾下是否有核专家？
Or, if not, do you know somebody you could refer to if you need to make an important decision?" 或者如果没有,你知道有谁 在你要做出重大决定的时候, 可以向其咨询和请教的？”
Start to find out what they believe and whether it aligns with your own views and values. 开始了解他们的想法, 看看是否和你自己的看法和价值观所吻合。
Ask them, "How would you choose to spend US national treasure? 问他们,“你会怎么去用美国的国家财富？
On a new nuclear arms race or another national security priority , such as cybersecurity or climate change?" 是用在新的核武军备竞赛上, 或是别的国家安全优先事项, 比如网络安全或者气候变化？”
arms race:n.军备竞赛; priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事; cybersecurity:网络安全;网络空间安全;
Ask them, "Are you willing to put aside partisanship to address this existential threat that affects my survival and your constituents' survival?" 问他们,“你是否愿意先将党派争斗放在一边, 好好着手解决现存的、 影响我和你忠实选民生命的威胁？”
existential:adj.存在主义的;有关存在的;存在判断的;
Now, people will tell you nuclear policy is far too difficult to understand and complexed and nuanced for the general public to understand, let alone debate . 然后人们会告你,核武器政策太难理解了, 对于普通大众来讲, 实在太复杂有太多细节了, 更不要说讨论了。
complexed:合成的;复合的;综合的;多元的; nuanced:adj.微妙的; v.精确细腻地表演; general public:n.普通百姓;大众;公众; let alone:更不必说;听任;不打扰; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑;
After all, this is "national security." 毕竟,这是“国家安全”。
There needs to be secrets. 有些事必须得是机密。
Don't let that put you off. 但不要被这套说辞迷惑了。
We debate all sorts of issues that are critically important to our lives -- why should nuclear weapons be any different? 我们讨论各种各样 对于我们生活至关重要的事情, 为什么核武器就是特例？
We debate health care , education, the environment. 我们讨论医保、教育和环境。
health care:n.卫生保健;
Surely congressional oversight, civic participation that are such hallmarks of US democracy, surely they apply here. 当然作为美国民主标志的 国会监督和公民参与, 这些自然都在此适用。
congressional:adj.国会的;会议的;议会的; civic:adj.市的;公民的,市民的; participation:n.参与;分享;参股; hallmarks:印记; apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
After all, these are cases of life and death that we're talking about. 毕竟我们谈论的事关乎生死。
And we won't all agree, but whether or not you believe nuclear weapons keep us safe or that nuclear weapons are a liability , 我们虽不会全都同意彼此, 但无论你觉得核武器确保我们的安全, 或者核武器只是个累赘,
liability:n.责任;债务;倾向;可能性;不利因素;
I urge you to put aside partisan, ideological issues and listen to each other. 我想在此劝大家放下党派偏见与意识形态, 好好聆听他人。
ideological:adj.思想的;意识形态的;
So I'll tell you now what I didn't have the guts to tell my friends at the time. 那么我现在可以告诉你们, 当初我没有胆量告诉我朋友的话。
have the guts:有勇气;
No, you're not safe -- not just because of North Korea. 不,你并不安全—— 不仅仅是因为朝鲜。
But there is something you can do about it. 不过你可以尽自己的一份力,
Demand that your elected representatives can give you answers to your questions, and answers that you can live with and that billions of others can live with too. 要求你们选出的议员, 给出你们问题的答案, 你们可以接受的 以及千千万万民众们可以接受的答案。
representatives:n.代表;众议院(representative的复数形式);
And if they can't, stay on them until they can. 如果他们做不到, 反复跟提这事直到他们做到为止。
And if that doesn't work, find others, who are able to represent your views. 如果还是没用, 找其他可以代表你们观点的人。
Because by doing so, we can begin to change the answer to the question "Am I safe?" 因为只有这样做, 我们才能改变这个问题的答案。 “我安全吗？”
(Applause) （掌声）