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ElizabethCox_SlipperySlopeFallacy_2020E-_你能战胜滑坡谬误吗_-
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| On the plains of the Serengeti , a dung beetle rolls his perfectly sculpted ball of dung away from competitors. |
（电视）:在塞伦盖蒂平原上, 一只蜣螂将完美雕刻的粪球 滚离竞争对手; |
| In this Canadian river, a beaver rushes to reinforce her dam as it threatens to burst . |
在这条加拿大河流中, 一只海狸急着加固她的坝, 因为坝体有破裂的危险; |
| As the snowball thunders down the mountainside , gaining momentum , the arctic foxes run for cover— |
当雪球轰隆作响滚落山坡, 不断加快,北极狐奔跑寻掩护...... |
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Serengeti:n.塞伦盖蒂平原(位于坦桑尼亚西北部); dung:vt.施粪肥于;n.粪; beetle:n.甲壳虫;adj.突出的;愁眉苦脸的;v.快速移动 sculpted:v.雕刻(sculpt的过去式); beaver:n.海狸;海狸皮毛; reinforce:vt.加强,加固; vi.求援; n.加强; burst:v.破裂;爆炸;突破;冲进;n.爆发;点射;释放;(情感的)迸发; thunders:打雷;[气象]雷; mountainside:山腰,山坡, momentum:n.势头;[物]动量;动力;冲力; arctic:adj.北极的;北极地区的;极冷的;严寒的;n.北极;北极地区;
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| I can't stand these nature programs. |
推理怪:真受不了这些自然节目。 |
| Always the same story, and not a rational actor in sight. What else is on? |
总是同一个故事, 看不到一个理性角色。 |
| It’s April 1954, and Vietnamese nationalists are on the verge of victory against French forces fighting for control of Vietnam. |
（电视）:1954 年 4 月, 越南民族主义者 反对法军控制越南之战即将胜利。 |
| Their victory could lead to an independent Vietnam under communist leader Ho Chi Minh. |
他们的胜利可能导致 越南在共产党领导人 胡志明的领导下获得独立。 |
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rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的; Vietnamese:n.越南人;越南语;adj.越南的;越南人的; nationalists:n.民族主义者;国家主义者(nationalist人复数); on the verge of:濒临于;接近于; independent:adj.独立的; n.无党派议员(或候选人等); communist:n.共产党员;共产主义者;adj.共产主义的;
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| The United States President, Dwight D. Eisenhower , is holding a press conference to comment on these developments. |
美国总统德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔 正在召开新闻发布会, 就事态发展发表评论。 |
| Well, if you really must. |
推理怪:好吧,如果你必须开的话。 |
| Eisenhower claims that by virtue of what he calls the “falling domino principle ,” communist control of Vietnam would be the “beginning of a disintegration” |
（电视）:艾森豪威尔声称,根据 他说的“多米诺骨牌倒塌原则”, 共产主义对越南的控制 将是“分裂的开始”, |
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United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) Eisenhower:n.艾森豪威尔(美国第三十四任总统); press conference:记者招待会,新闻发布会; comment on:对…评论; claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数) by virtue of:由于,凭借; domino:n.多米诺骨牌;面具;化装外衣; principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉;
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| that would be certain to cause “incalculable loss.” |
定会造成“无法估量的损失”。 |
| The beetles and beavers may be beyond my reach, but surely here's someone I can reason with. |
推理怪:我管不了甲虫和海狸的事, 但肯定要和此人比试一下推理。 |
| Now, Mr. President, let’s take a deep breath, shall we? |
推理怪:现在,总统先生, 让我们深吸一口气,好吗？ |
| from communist governance of Vietnam to the global spread of authoritarian communist regimes . |
这是巨大飞跃, 或者有人可能会说是个长滑坡。 |
| It’s as if we were to say you were clothed , now you’re in your underwear, so soon everyone in the world will be completely naked . |
就好比如果我们说你刚才穿着衣服, 而现在你只穿着内衣, 那么,很快世界上的每个人 都将完全赤身裸体一样。 |
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beetles:n.甲虫;v.快速移动;(beetle的第三人称单数和复数) beavers:n.海狸(beaver的复数);v.勤奋工作(beaver的第三人称单数); governance:n.管理;统治;支配; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; authoritarian:adj.独裁主义的;权力主义的;n.权力主义者;独裁主义者; regimes:n.政治制度,政权,政体(regime的名词复数); clothed:adj.穿…衣服的;覆盖著…的;v.穿…;授以(clothe的过去式); naked:adj.裸体的;无装饰的;无证据的;直率的;
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| Don’t worry, I may have that power, but I promise not to use it. |
别担心,我可能有那种力量, 但我保证不会使用它。 |
| Now, as I was saying, this kind of argument, where one step, let’s call it A, kicks off a string of events that inevitably culminates in an extreme scenario , let’s call it Z, is known as a slippery slope . |
现在,正如我所说,这种争论, 其中一个步骤,我们称之为 A, 是一系列事件的开始, A 不可避免地以极端情况告终, 我们称之为 Z,被称为滑坡谬误。 |
| Many such arguments focus on catastrophe , but the slope to an extreme positive outcome can be just as slippery. |
许多这样的论点集中在最终灾难上, 但极端正向结果的斜坡 可能也同样很滑(不靠谱）。 |
| The trouble with this kind of argument is that, in presenting Z is the inevitable outcome of A, it almost always overstates the likelihood that Z will happen if A happens. |
这种论点的问题在于, 在呈现 Z 是 A 的必然时, 几乎总是夸大 Z 发生的可能性, 如果 A 发生的话。 |
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string:n.字符串; v.悬挂; adj.由弦乐器组成的; inevitably:adv.不可避免地;必然地; culminates:vi.到绝顶;达到高潮;达到顶点;vt.使结束;使达到高潮; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本; slippery slope:n.灾难性的急剧下滑; catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败; positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; outcome:n.结果,结局;成果; inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的; overstates:vt.夸张;夸大的叙述; likelihood:n.可能性,可能;
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| Why? |
为什么？ |
| Allow me to trouble you with some math. |
容我用一些数学来解释。 |
| Let’s assume for the sake of argument that, taken individually , each step between A and Z is independent from the others and very likely— 99%. |
为了论证,每步单独考虑的话, 让我们假设 A 和 Z 之间 每一步都相互独立, 并且很可能发生——概率 99%。 |
| So the probability that A causes B, that B causes C, that C causes D, and so on, is each 99%. |
所以, A 导致 B,B 导致 C , C 导致 D,依此类推, 每一步概率都是 99%。 |
| Even so, each additional step adds an opportunity to alter the outcome, and A is only 78% likely to lead to Z— far from an inevitability . |
即便如此,每个额外步骤 都会增加改变结果的可能, 使 A 导致 Z 只有 78%的可能性, 远非必然结果。 |
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assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现; for the sake of:为了;为了…的利益; individually:adv.个别地,单独地; probability:n.可能性;机率;[数]或然率; additional:adj.附加的,额外的; alter:v.更改;修改(衣服使更合身); inevitability:n.必然性;不可逃避;
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| If there’s a 95% likelihood of each step, the chance that A leads to Z plummets to about 28%. |
如果每步都有 95% 的可能, A 导致 Z 的可能性 则骤降至约 28%。 |
| If there’s a 90% likelihood at each step— still very likely by most standards— the chance that A leads to Z is only 7%. |
若每步都有 90% 的可能性—— 按大多数标准,仍然很有可能—— A 导致 Z 的概率仅为 7%。 |
| And if 24 of the 25 steps between A and Z are 99% likely, and one is 50% likely, the chance that A leads to Z |
如果 A 和 Z 间的 25 个步骤中 有 24 个有 99% 的可能性, 一个是 50% 的可能性, A 导致 Z 的机会 |
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plummets:v.大幅下跌;垂直落下(plummet的三单形式);n.[测]铅锤(plummet的复数);
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| Back to your situation. |
再回到您说的的情况, |
| I won’t deny you have reason to be concerned . |
我不否认你有理由担心。 |
| You’re warily watching as powerful authoritarian communist regimes in the Soviet Union and China try to spread their form of governance. |
你警惕看着强大专制的共产主义政权 在苏联和中国试图传播其治理形式, |
| But let’s take a look at the chain of events you suggest: |
但让我们来看看你说的事件链: |
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deny:v.否定,否认;拒绝给予;拒绝…的要求; concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词) warily:adv.警惕地;谨慎地;留心地; Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人; take a look at:看一看;检查;
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| You say that the countries surrounding Vietnam would all soon fall under communist rule; that this would result in a loss of essential trade with these countries for others; |
你说越南周边的国家 很快会落入共产主义统治之下, 因为与其他国家合作, 将导致与这些国家的基本贸易损失, |
| that with no non-communist nations left to trade with, |
导致没有非共产主义国家 可以与之进行贸易, |
| Japan would be pressured towards communism and that this, in turn, would threaten Australia and New Zealand . |
日本将被迫走向共产主义, 而这反过来又会威胁到 澳大利亚和新西兰。 |
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essential:n.要点;要素;实质;必需品;adj.完全必要的;必不可少的;极其重要的;本质的; non-communist:非共产党员; communism:n.共产主义; Zealand:西兰岛(丹麦最大的岛)
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| Your ultimate fear, if I may presume , is that this will in turn threaten the United States. |
如果我可以假设的话, 你的终极恐惧就是 这会反过来威胁美国。 |
| Is this a possibility? Sure. |
（总统点头） |
| Where I take issue is with your comparison to dominos . |
但我不同意你拿多米诺骨牌做比较。 |
| These complex real-world events are not, in fact, like dominoes , where when the first one falls, it becomes a certainty that the last will fall. |
事实上,这些复杂的现实事件 并不像多米诺骨牌, 即当第一个倒下时, 最后一个肯定会倒下。 |
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ultimate:adj.最终的;极限的;根本的;n.终极;根本;基本原则; presume:v.假定;推测;擅自;意味着; issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行; comparison:n.比较;对比;相比; dominos:n.接龙;多米诺骨牌(domino的复数); complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; real-world:adj.现实生活的;工作的; dominoes:n.多米诺骨牌(效应);牙齿;骰子(domino的复数); certainty:n.必然;确实;确实的事情;
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| For any one of these events, a number of possible outcomes could result, each affecting the other events in different ways. |
对于这些事件中的任何一个, 都可能导致许多可能的结果, 每个都以不同方式影响其他事件。 |
| The possibilities are not a chain, they’re a web. |
可能性不是连锁,而是一张网。 |
| It’s 1975, and after 20 years of conflict , and several million lives lost, |
（电视）:1975 年,历经 20 年冲突,数百万人丧生, |
| North Vietnamese forces have taken control of the capital of South Vietnam. |
北越军队控制了南越的首都, |
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outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数) conflict:n.冲突;矛盾;争执;抵触;v.抵触;
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| The war is over, and all of Vietnam is under communist control. |
战争结束,整个越南 都在共产党的控制之下。 |
| Communist regimes have come to power in neighboring Laos and Cambodia, where the regime will be responsible for the deaths of an estimated quarter of all Cambodians . |
共产主义政权在邻国 老挝和柬埔寨上台, 政权更替 造成约 1/4 柬埔寨人死亡。 |
| Wait, there's more. |
（总统和观众惊讶声） |
| That first step you were trying to avoid happened, but the end result you predicted did not. |
电视:(1985年)你极力避免的 第一步还是发生了, （1991年,）但你预测的 最终结果却没出现。 |
| As for the steps between, a few happened; many did not. |
（2021年）至于中间的步骤, 发生了一些,但许多并未发生。 |
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neighboring:adj.邻近的;接壤的;v.邻近;使接近;位于…附近;(neighbor的现在分词) responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的; estimated:adj.估计的;预计的;估算的; Cambodians:n.柬埔寨人(高棉人);柬埔寨语;adj.柬埔寨的;柬埔寨人的;柬埔寨语的; end result:n.最终结果; predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式)
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| Decades afterward , your fellow humans are still debating why events unfolded the way they did. |
几十年后,你的人类同胞仍在争论 为什么事件会以这种方式展开。 |
| And this is the trouble with slippery slope arguments. |
这就是滑坡谬误的麻烦之处。 |
| They focus exclusively on extreme outcomes, assigning those outcomes a degree of certainty or inevitability that rarely corresponds to reality. |
他们只关注极端结果, 为这些结果分配一定程度的 （100%）确定性或必然性, 这很少符合现实。 |
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afterward:adv.以后,后来; debating:v.讨论,辩论;仔细考虑;思考;盘算;(debate的现在分词) unfolded:v.(使)展开;打开;展示;透露;(unfold的过去分词和过去式) exclusively:adv.唯一地;专有地;排外地; assigning:v.分派;设定(assign的ing形式); rarely:adv.很少地;难得;罕有地; corresponds:v.相一致;符合;类似于;相当于;通信;(correspond的第三人称单数)
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| They divert attention from other, more likely possibilities, foreclosing discussions that might be more productive . |
他们将注意力从其他 更有可能的可能性上转移开来, 排除可能更有成效的讨论, |
| And that’s when they’re made in good faith . |
那正是他们的用意所在。 |
| Slippery slope arguments can also be intentionally structured whatever your position on an issue, it’s easy to come up with an extreme outcome that suits your aims. |
滑坡谬误也可以有意构建 无论你在某个问题上的立场如何, 很容易得出适合你目标的极端结果。 |
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divert:v.使转向;使绕道;转移;使分心;娱乐; foreclosing:vt.阻止;排除;取消抵押品赎回权;vi.取消抵押品赎回权; productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的; faith:n.信心;信任;宗教信仰; intentionally:adv.故意地,有意地; structured:adj.有结构的;有组织的;v.组织;构成(structure的过去分词);建造; come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
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| Best to avoid them entirely, eh? |
最好完全避免它们,是吧？ |