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ElizabethCox_FalseAnalogyFallacy_2020E-_你能点破「苹果等于柳橙」的谬误逻辑吗？_-
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| Baking apple pie ? Discount orange warehouse has you covered! |
想烤个苹果派吗？柳丁折扣仓庫助你一臂之力！ |
| A fruit’s a fruit, right? |
反正都是水果,对吧？ ［苹果派──用柳丁来做！］ |
| It’s 1988, and scientist James Hansen has just testified to the United States Congress that global warming trends are caused by human activity, and will pose an increasing threat to humanity in the future. |
1988 年,科学家詹姆斯·汉森 对美国国会表示, 全球暖化的趋势是人类活动所导致, 是人类活动所导致, 并将会越来越严峻, 对未来的人类产生威胁。 |
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Baking:n.烘焙,烘烤; adj.烘烤的; v.烤,烘焙; (bake的现在分词) apple pie:n.苹果派;苹果馅饼; Discount:n.折扣;vt.低估;打折扣;打折出售 warehouse:n.仓库,货栈;货仓; testified:v.(尤指出庭)作证;证实;证明;见证;(testify的过去式和过去分词) United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) Congress:n.国会;代表大会;会议;社交; global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖; trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数) pose:v.引起; n.装腔作势; (为画像、拍照等摆的)姿势; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
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| Well, well. That’s unusually prescient for a human. |
哇,哇。一个人类有这样的先见之明 可真不寻常。 |
| Looking for a wedding dress ? Try a new take on a timeless classic . |
在找婚纱吗？给永恒经典款一个新的定义。 |
| It’s sleek , flattering and modest— just like the traditional dress. |
时髦、合宜、突显身材优点, 就像传统婚纱一样。 |
| Commercials . Could anything be more insufferable ? |
广告。还有甚么比广告更讨人嫌的吗？ |
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unusually:adv.非常;异乎寻常地;显著地; prescient:adj.预知的;有先见之明的; wedding dress:n.婚纱; timeless:adj.永恒的;不受时间影响的;不合时宜的; classic:n.名著;优秀的典范;adj.最优秀的;第一流的;有代表性的;典型的; sleek:adj.圆滑的;井然有序的;vt.使…光滑;掩盖;vi.打扮整洁;滑动; flattering:adj.奉承的; v.奉承; (flatter的现在分词) traditional:传统的,惯例的, Commercials:n.商业广告;宣传;商业股票;(commercial的复数) insufferable:adj.难以忍受的;不可忍受的;令人厌恶的;
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| It’s 1997, and the United States Senate has called a hearing about global warming. |
1997 年,美国参议院 举办了一场全球暖化听证会。 |
| Some expert witnesses point out that past periods in Earth’s history were warmer than the 20th century. |
一些专家证人指出, 过往在地球史上的某些时期 实际上比 20 世纪更热。 |
| Because such variations existed long before humans, the witnesses claim the current warming trend is also the result of natural variation. |
由于这种气温变化, 在人类诞生之前早已存在, 专家们表示,当今的暖化趋势, 也是自然变化的结果。 |
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Senate:n.参议院,上院;(古罗马的)元老院; witnesses:n.[法]证人; v.作证; variations:n.变奏曲,变更;[生物]变种(variation的复数形式); claim:v.要求;声称;需要;认领;n.要求;声称;索赔;断言;值得;
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| Ah, there is something more insufferable than a commercial. |
啊,比广告更让人难以忍受的东西。 |
| Luckily for the humans, there’s one more expert witness. |
对人类来说幸运的是, 这里还有个专家证人。 |
| What are you looking at? We’re all dressed. |
你在看甚么？我们都有穿衣服。 |
| At least we are by the logic you just used. |
至少根据你们刚刚用的逻辑, 我们都有穿衣服。 |
| It’s as if you were to say apples and oranges are both fruits, therefore they taste the same. |
这逻辑就像是, 你们说苹果跟柳橙都是水果, 所以它们吃起来的味道都相同。 |
| Or that underwear, wedding dresses, and suits are all clothes, therefore, they’re all equally appropriate attire for a Senate hearing. |
或者说内衣、婚纱跟西装都是衣服, 所以它们对参议院听证会来说, 都是同样体面的衣服。 |
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logic:n.逻辑;逻辑学;逻辑性;adj.逻辑的; apples and oranges:风马牛不相及的事物; appropriate:adj.适当的;恰当的;v.占用,拨出; attire:n.服装;盛装;vt.打扮;使穿衣;
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| The European wars of the 19th century and World War I were all wars, right? |
19 世纪发生在欧洲的一连串战争 跟第一次世界大战都是战争,对吧？ |
| So World War I couldn’t be any more devastating than those other wars, could it? |
所以第一次世界大战, 不会比其他战争来得死伤惨重, 对吧？ |
| Let’s say two people have a fever. |
假设这里有两个发烧的人。 |
| They must have the same disease that’s causing that fever, right? |
他们一定是得到相同的病, 才会同样都发烧了对吧？ |
| Of course not. One fever could be caused by chicken pox , the other by influenza , or any number of other infections . |
当然不是这样。其中一个人可能是得了水痘, 另一个可能是得了流感, 或是任何其他感染。 |
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devastating:adj.毁灭性的; v.毁灭; (devastate的现在分词) disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病; pox:n.痘;疹;发疹的疾病;瘟疫; influenza:n.[内科]流行性感冒(简写flu);家畜流行性感冒; infections:n.传染病;口腔病害(infection复数形式);
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| Like your claim about rising global temperatures, these claims make a false analogy . |
就像是你们对全球暖化作出的宣称, 这些假设都犯了不当类比的错误。 |
| You're assuming that because two phenomena share a characteristic , in this case warming, they are analogous in other ways, like the cause of that warming. |
你们在这里对全球暖化做的假设, 奠基在这个逻辑上: 只要两个现象拥有相同特质, 它们的其他特质也会相同。 所以你们认为暖化的原因也会一样。 |
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claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数) analogy:n.类比;类推;类似; assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词) phenomena:n.现象(phenomenon的复数); characteristic:n.特征;特点;品质;adj.典型的;独特的;特有的; analogous:adj.类似的;[昆]同功的;可比拟的;
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| But there’s no evidence that that’s the case. |
但根本没有证据证明, 事实就是如此。 |
| Yes, there have been other warm periods in Earth’s history— no one’s disputing that the climate fluctuates . |
没错,地球历史上有其他高温的时期, 没有人否认气温会波动。 |
| But let's take a closer look at some of those older examples of global warming, shall we? |
但让我们来仔细看看 一些以前的暖化例子吧, 好吗？ |
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evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; disputing:v.对…提出质询;对…表示异议(或怀疑);争论;争执;(dispute的现在分词) fluctuates:vi.波动;涨落;动摇;vt.使波动;使动摇;
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| The Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse , 92 million years ago, was so warm, forests covered Antarctica. |
［白垩纪热温室气候 九千二百万年前］ 当时非常热,就连南极洲都长出森林。 |
| Volcanic activity was likely responsible for boosting atmospheric carbon dioxide and creating a greenhouse effect . |
很可能因为火山活动, 大气层中的二氧化碳增加, 也因此造成温室效应。 |
| The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum , 55 million years ago, was so warm, crocodiles swam the waters of the Arctic Circle . |
五千五百万年前的 古新世－始新世极热事件 当时超级热,热到 鳄鱼都能在北极圈里游泳。 |
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Cretaceous:adj.白垩纪的;似白垩的;n.白垩纪;白垩系; Greenhouse:n.温室;暖房; Volcanic:adj.火山的;猛烈的;易突然发作的;n.火山岩; responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的; boosting:n.助推,局部通风;升压加力;v.推进(boost的现在分词形式); atmospheric:adj.大气的,大气层的; carbon dioxide:二氧化碳; greenhouse effect:n.温室效应; Thermal:adj.热的;热量的;保热的;n.上升的热气流; Maximum:n.最大限度;最大量;最高限度;adj.最高的;最多的;最大极限的; crocodiles:n.鳄类,鳄鱼(crocodile的复数形式); Arctic Circle:n.北极圈;
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| This warming may have been caused by the drying of inland seas and release of methane , a potent greenhouse gas , from ocean sediments , |
可能是因为内陆海干涸, 和海洋沉积物释放出甲烷 ──一种强势的温室气体── 才导致暖化。 |
| Even among these other warm periods, you’re making a false analogy. |
就算是拿其他暖化时期来比较, 你们的类比也是错的。 |
| Yes, they had natural causes. |
没错,它们都是自然因素造成的。 |
| But each had a different cause, and involved a different amount and duration of warming. |
但两者的原因并不相同, 暖化的程度跟持续的时间也不同。 |
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inland:n.内地;内陆;adj.内陆的;内地的;国内的;adv.在内地;向内地;向内陆;在内陆; release:v.释放;发射;让与;允许发表;n.释放;发布;让与; methane:n.[有化]甲烷;[能源]沼气; potent:adj.有效的;强有力的,有权势的;有说服力的; greenhouse gas:n.温室气体(尤指二氧化碳); sediments:n.[地质]沉积物,[化学]沉淀物(sediment的复数); v.沉积(sediment的第三人称单数); involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) duration:n.持续时间;期间;
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| They’re as dissimilar as they are similar. |
它们如此不同又如此相同。 |
| Taking them together, all we can reasonably conclude is that the Earth’s climate seems to change in response to conditions on the planet. |
同时看两者,我们能理性得到的结论, 就是地球的气温变动, 似乎是被自身条件所影响的。 |
| Today, human activity is a dominant force shaping conditions on your planet, so the possibility that it’s driving global warming can’t be dismissed out of hand . |
今天,人类的活动, 是形塑你们星球条件的主要力量。 所以它导致全球暖化的可能性, 不能随意忽视。 |
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dissimilar:adj.不同的; reasonably:adv.合理地;相当地;适度地; conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定) in response to:响应;回答;对…有反应; dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性; dismissed:v.不予考虑;摒弃;去除,消除;解雇;(dismiss的过去分词和过去式) out of hand:无法控制;脱手,告终;立即;
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| I’ll grant that the more complicated something is, the easier it is to make a mistaken analogy. |
我承认,一件事情越复杂, 就越容易做出一个错误的类比。 |
| That’s especially true because there are many different types of false analogy: that similar symptoms must share a cause, that similar actions must lead to similar consequences , and countless others. |
这是真的,因为错误类比有很多种: 从相同的结果可能来自于相同的原因, 到相同的行动一定会导致相同的结果, 以及其他数不清的类比。 |
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grant:v.授予;允许;承认;同意;n.拨款;[法]授予物; complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式) mistaken:adj.错误;不正确;被误解的;v.弄错;误解;误会;(mistake的过去分词) especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; symptoms:n.症状;征候;征兆;(symptom的复数) consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数); countless:adj.无数的;数不尽的;
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| Most false analogies you’ll come across are far less obvious than those comparing apples to oranges , and climate is notoriously complex . |
你会遇到的大多数不当类比,都会比「拿苹果比柳橙」更难以察觉。 其中,气候的复杂度更是恶名昭彰。 |
| It requires careful, rigorous study and evidence collection— and making a false analogy like this only impedes that process . |
解析气候变化,需要 小心、严谨的研究和搜证。 而这种不当类比,只会妨碍研究进行。 |
| It’s 2013, and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found, aggregating decades of research, that there is more than a 95% chance the global warming trend |
2013年,联合国政府间气候变迁专门委员会 汇集数十年来的研究后,委员会发现, 二十世纪中叶后的全球暖化趋势, |
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analogies:n.类比;类推法; obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; comparing:v.比较;对比;(compare的现在分词) apples to oranges:把两件完全不同的东西拿来相提并论; notoriously:adv.众所周知地;声名狼藉地;恶名昭彰地; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; rigorous:adj.严格的,严厉的;严密的;严酷的; impedes:vt.阻碍;妨碍;阻止; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; United Nations:n.联合国; Intergovernmental:adj.政府间的; Panel:n.镶板;仪表盘;钣金;(衣服上的)镶条;v.镶板(用木或玻璃板等镶嵌或装饰); aggregating:v.总计;合计;(aggregate的现在分词)
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| since the mid-20th century has been driven by human activity, namely the burning of fossil fuels. |
有超过 95% 的机率是由于人类活动。 换句话说,就是因为使用化石燃料。 |
| and he likes living in water, so you should, too. |
他喜欢住在水里, 所以你应该也要喜欢才对。 |
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namely:adv.也就是;即是;换句话说; fossil:n.化石;老人;老古董;adj.从地下发掘出来的;化石的;属于旧时代的;陈腐的;
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