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EdwardTenner_2011-_无意识后果_
I didn't always love unintended consequences , but I've really learned to appreciate them. [00:12]
unintended:adj.无意识的;非计划中的; consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数); appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解;
I've learned that they're the essence of what makes for progress, even when they seem to be terrible. [00:17]
essence:n.本质;实质;精髓;香精;
And I'd like to review just how unintended consequences play the part that they do. [00:24]
Let's go to 40,000 years before the present, to the time of the cultural explosion , when music, art, technology , so many of the things that we're enjoying today, [00:32]
cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的; explosion:n.爆炸;爆发;激增; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED were born. [00:48]
demonstrated:v.证明;证实;论证;说明;表达;(demonstrate的过去分词和过去式)
And the anthropologist Randall White has made a very interesting observation : that, if our ancestors 40,000 years ago had been able to see what they had done, they wouldn't have really understood it. [00:53]
anthropologist:n.人类学家;人类学者; observation:n.观察;观测;监视;(尤指据所见、所闻、所读而作的)评论;
They were responding to immediate concerns . [01:10]
responding:v.响应;作出反应;反应灵敏;(respond的现在分词) concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式);
They were making it possible for us to do what they do, and yet, they didn't really understand how they did it. [01:15]
Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present. [01:23]
And this is when it really gets interesting. [01:28]
What about the domestication of grains ? [01:30]
domestication:n.驯养;教化; grains:n.谷物;颗粒;细粒;少量;一点儿;(grain的复数)
What about the origins of agriculture? [01:33]
origins:n.起源; (origin的复数)
What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago have said if they really had technology assessment ? [01:36]
assessment:n.评定;估价;
And I could just imagine the committees reporting back to them on where agriculture was going to take humanity , at least in the next few hundred years. [01:43]
committees:n.委员会,全体委员;(committee的复数) humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
It was really bad news. [01:53]
First of all , worse nutrition , maybe shorter life spans . [01:55]
First of all:adv.首先; nutrition:n.营养,营养学;营养品; spans:n.[建]跨度;一段时间(span的复数);v.跨越;持续;贯穿(span的第三人称单数);
It was simply awful for women. [01:59]
The skeletal remains from that period have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night. [02:01]
skeletal:adj.骨骼的,像骨骼的;骸骨的;骨瘦如柴的; grinding:adj.没完没了的; v.磨碎; (grind的现在分词)
And politically , it was awful. [02:08]
politically:adv.政治上;
It was the beginning of a much higher degree of inequality among people. [02:11]
If there had been rational technology assessment then, [02:17]
rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的;
I think they very well might have said, "Let's call the whole thing off." [02:20]
Even now, our choices are having unintended effects. [02:25]
Historically , for example, chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist who wrote a dissertation about it at the University of Michigan -- resulted in long-term changes in the dentition , in the teeth, of the Japanese public. [02:29]
Historically:adv.历史上地;从历史观点上说; according to:根据,据说; dissertation:n.论文,专题;学术演讲; Michigan:n.密歇根;美国密歇根州; long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; dentition:n.齿列;生齿;[脊椎]齿系;
And we are also changing our teeth right now. [02:45]
There is evidence that the human mouth and teeth are growing smaller all the time. [02:48]
evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence. [02:54]
necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地;
But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal , there would have been a lot of disapproval of the whimpish choppers that we now have. [02:57]
point of view:观点;见地;立场; Neanderthal:adj.尼安德特人的;穴居人的; disapproval:n.不赞成;不喜欢; choppers:n.直升机(chopper的复数); v.乘直升机飞行;
So these things are kind of relative to where you or your ancestors happen to stand. [03:04]
relative:adj.相对的;有关系的;成比例的;n.亲戚;相关物;[语]关系词;亲缘植物;
In the ancient world there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences, and there was a very healthy sense of caution, reflected in the Tree of Knowledge, in Pandora's Box, and especially in the myth of Prometheus that's been so important in recent metaphors about technology. [03:11]
reflected:adj.反射的;得自他人的;v.反射;思考;(reflect的过去式和过去分词) especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; myth:n.神话;虚构的人,虚构的事; metaphors:n.隐喻(metaphor的复数形式);
And that's all very true. [03:29]
The physicians of the ancient world -- especially the Egyptians , who started medicine as we know it -- were very conscious of what they could and couldn't treat . [03:32]
physicians:n.[内科]内科医生(physician的复数); Egyptians:n.埃及人;埃及语;(Egyptian的复数) conscious of:意识到; treat:v.治疗;处理;招待;款待;n.款待;乐事;乐趣;
And the translations of the surviving texts say, "This I will not treat. This I cannot treat." [03:42]
They were very conscious. [03:49]
So were the followers of Hippocrates. [03:51]
The Hippocratic manuscripts also -- repeatedly , according to recent studies -- show how important it is no to do harm. [03:53]
Hippocratic:adj.(古希腊医师)希波克拉底的;希波克拉底医学派的; manuscripts:n.[图情]手稿;草稿(manuscript的复数形式); repeatedly:adv.反复地;再三地;屡次地;
More recently , [04:01]
recently:adv.最近;新近;
Harvey Cushing, who really developed neurosurgery as we know it, who changed it from a field of medicine that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery to one in which there was a hopeful outlook , he was very conscious that he was not always going to do the right thing. [04:03]
neurosurgery:n.[外科]神经外科; majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人: outlook:n.见解;前景;人生观;可能性;
But he did his best, and he kept meticulous records that let him transform that branch of medicine. [04:22]
meticulous:adj.一丝不苟的;小心翼翼的;拘泥小节的; transform:v.使改变;使改观;使转换;n.[数]变换式;[化]反式;
Now if we look forward a bit to the 19th century, we find a new style of technology. [04:29]
look forward:向前看;期待;曲协盼望;盼望;朝前展望;
What we find is, no longer simple tools, but systems. [04:36]
We find more and more complex arrangements of machines that make it harder and harder to diagnose what's going on. [04:43]
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; arrangements:n.安排;筹备;布置;商定;(arrangement的复数) diagnose:vt.诊断;断定;vi.诊断;判断;
And the first people who saw that were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century, who were the original hackers . [04:51]
original:n.原件;原作;原物;原型;adj.原始的;最初的;独创的;新颖的; hackers:n.黑客,骇客;电脑黑客(hacker的复数);
Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable in the atmosphere of a software firm today. [04:58]
atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格;
And these hackers had a word for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems that they called bugs. [05:04]
mysterious:adj.神秘的;不可思议的;难解的; bugs:n.缺陷;虫子;窃听器;(bug的复数)v.窃听;使烦恼;(bug的第三人称单数) telegraph:n.[通信]电报机,电报;vt.电汇;流露出;打电报给…;vi.打电报;
That was the origin of the word "bug." [05:12]
This consciousness though was a little slow to seep through the general population, even people who were very, very well informed . [05:16]
consciousness:n.意识;知觉;觉悟;感觉; seep:vi.漏;渗出;n.小泉;水陆两用的吉普车; well informed:adj.消息灵通的;见多识广的;熟悉的;博学的;
Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain, was a big investor in the most complex machine of all times -- at least until 1918 -- registered with the U.S. Patent Office. [05:24]
investor:n.投资者; registered:adj.登记过的;记名的;挂号的;v.登记;注册;(register的过去式和过去分词) Patent:vt.授予专利; adj.专利的; n.专利权;
That was the Paige typesetter . [05:35]
typesetter:n.排字工人,排字机;
The Paige typesetter had 18,000 parts. [05:37]
The patent had 64 pages of text and 271 figures. [05:41]
it was such a beautiful machine because it did everything that a human being did in setting type -- including returning the type to its place, which was a very difficult thing. [05:48]
And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting , really was smitten by this machine. [05:59]
typesetting:adj.排字用的;n.排字; smitten:v.打击,摧毁(smite的过去分词);
Unfortunately , he was smitten in more ways than one, because it made him bankrupt , and he had to tour the world speaking to recoup his money. [06:04]
Unfortunately:adv.不幸地; bankrupt:adj.破产;倒闭;完全缺乏(有价值的东西);n.(经法院判决的)破产者;v.使破产; recoup:vt.收回;恢复;偿还;扣除;vi.获得补偿;请求扣除;
And this was an important thing about 19th century technology, that all these relationships among parts could make the most brilliant idea fall apart , even when judged by the most expert people. [06:14]
fall apart:崩溃;土崩瓦解;破碎;
Now there's something else though in the early 20th century that made things even more complicated . [06:26]
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
And that was that safety technology itself could be a source of danger. [06:32]
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料;
The lesson of the Titanic , for a lot of the contemporaries , was that you must have enough lifeboats for everyone on the ship. [06:37]
Titanic:adj.巨大的;强大的;极端重要的;四价钛的; contemporaries:n.同龄,同辈人(contemporary复数形式); lifeboats:n.[船][安全]救生艇(lifeboat的复数);
And this was the result of the tragic loss of lives of people who could not get into them. [06:44]
tragic:adj.悲剧的;悲痛的,不幸的;
However, there was another case, the Eastland, a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915, and it killed 841 people -- that was 14 more than the passenger toll of the Titanic. [06:51]
capsized:v.倾覆(capsize的过去分词);翻船;覆没;adj.翻覆的; Harbor:n.港口;港湾;(比喻)避难所;[军]坦克掩蔽场;v.停泊;包含;隐匿;怀抱(恶意); passenger:n.旅客;乘客;白吃饭的人;闲散人员; toll:n.伤亡人数; v.(缓慢而有规律地)敲(钟); (尤指)鸣(丧钟);
The reason for it, in part, was the extra life boats that were added that made this already unstable ship even more unstable. [07:06]
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外: unstable:adj.不稳定的;变化莫测的;(行为、情绪)反复无常的
And that again proves that when you're talking about unintended consequences, it's not that easy to know the right lessons to draw. [07:16]
It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded, the ballast and many other things. [07:25]
ballast:n.压舱物,[建]压载物;道渣,碎石;vt.给…装压舱物;给…铺道渣;
So the 20th century, then, saw how much more complex reality was, but it also saw a positive side. [07:32]
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
It saw that invention could actually benefit from emergencies . [07:40]
emergencies:n.突发事件;紧急情况;(emergency的复数)
It could benefit from tragedies . [07:45]
tragedies:n.悲惨的事;不幸;灾难;悲剧作品;(tragedy的复数)
And my favorite example of that -- which is not really widely known as a technological miracle , but it may be one of the greatest of all times, was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War. [07:50]
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; miracle:n.奇迹,奇迹般的人或物;惊人的事例; scaling:n.缩放比例; v.剥落; penicillin:n.盘尼西林(青霉素);
Penicillin was discovered in 1928, but even by 1940, no commercially and medically useful quantities of it were being produced. [08:03]
commercially:adv.商业上;通商上; medically:adv.医学上地;医药上地; quantities:n.数量;数目;大量;大宗;(quantity的复数)
A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it. [08:13]
pharmaceutical:adj.制药(学)的;n.药物;
They were working on it independently , and they weren't getting anywhere. [08:16]
independently:adv.独立地;自立地;
And the Government Research Bureau brought representatives together and told them that this is something that has to be done. [08:20]
Bureau:n.局,处;衣柜;办公桌; representatives:n.代表;众议院(representative的复数形式);
And not only did they do it, but within two years, they scaled up penicillin from preparation in one-liter flasks to 10,000-gallon vats . [08:28]
scaled:adj.有鳞的; v.刮去鳞片; flasks:n.[分化]烧瓶;长颈瓶,细颈瓶;酒瓶,携带瓶; vats:abbr.电视辅助胸腔镜手术(Video-assistedThoracoscopicSurgery);
That was how quickly penicillin was produced and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time. [08:41]
In the Second World War too, the existence of solar radiation was demonstrated by studies of interference that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain . [08:49]
radiation:n.辐射;放射线;放射疗法; interference:n.干扰,冲突;干涉; detected:v.发现;查明;侦察出;(detect的过去分词和过去式) radar:n.雷达; Great Britain:n.大不列颠(包括英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士);
So there were benefits in calamities -- benefits to pure science, as well as to applied science and medicine. [09:02]
calamities:灾害; as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且; applied:adj.应用的;实用的;v.应用;使用;申请,请求;(apply的过去分词和过去式)
Now when we come to the period after the Second World War, unintended consequences get even more interesting. [09:12]
And my favorite example of that occurred beginning in 1976, when it was discovered that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease had always been present in natural waters, but it was the precise temperature of the water [09:19]
occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式) bacteria:n.[微]细菌; Legionnaires:n.美国退伍军人协会会员;军团的士兵; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病; precise:adj.准确的;确切的;精确的;明确的;
in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems that raised the right temperature for the maximum reproduction of Legionella bacillus . [09:36]
ventilating:n.通风;vt.使通风(ventilate的现在分词); air conditioning:n.空调系统;空气调节; maximum:n.最大限度;最大量;最高限度;adj.最高的;最多的;最大极限的; reproduction:n.繁殖,生殖;复制;复制品; Legionella:n.[特医]军团杆菌,军团菌属; bacillus:n.杆菌;芽孢杆菌;细菌;
Well, technology to the rescue . [09:48]
rescue:n.救援;抢救;营救;获救;v.抢救;营救;援救;
So chemists got to work, and they developed a bactericide that became widely used in those systems. [09:50]
chemists:n.化学家(chemist的复数);药剂师;
But something else happened in the early 1980s, and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic of failures of tape drives all over the United States. [09:57]
epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
And IBM, which made them, just didn't know what to do. [10:08]
They commissioned a group of their best scientists to investigate , and what they found was that all these tape drives were located near ventilation ducts . [10:14]
commissioned:adj.受委任的;v.正式委托;任命…为军官;(commission的过去式和过去分词) investigate:v.调查;研究;审查; located:adj.位于; v.确定…的准确地点; (locate的过去分词和过去式) ventilation:n.通风设备;空气流通; ducts:n.[建]管道(duct的复数);通风管道;
What happened was the bactericide was formulated with minute traces of tin. [10:26]
formulated:v.制订;规划;准备;确切表达;(formulate的过去分词和过去式) traces:v.跟踪;探索;n.痕迹;踪迹;(trace的复数和第三人单数)
And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads and were crashing the tape heads. [10:31]
particles:n.微粒,粒子;粒子系统;碎木料(particle的复数形式); deposited:v.存放;储存;放置(deposit的过去分词);adj.存放的;堆积的;
So they reformulated the bactericide. [10:37]
reformulated:再阐述(reformulate的过去式和过去分词);
But what's interesting to me is this was the first case of a mechanical device suffering, at least indirectly , from a human disease. [10:40]
mechanical:adj.机械的;力学的;呆板的;无意识的;手工操作的; device:n.装置;策略;图案; indirectly:adv.间接地;不诚实;迂回地;
So it shows that we're really all in this together. [10:49]
(Laughter) [10:52]
In fact, it also shows something interesting, that although our capabilities and technology have been expanding geometrically , unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior, which has also been increasing, has been increasing only arithmetically . [10:54]
expanding:v.扩大,增加,增强细谈;详述;(expand的现在分词) geometrically:adv.用几何学;几何学上地;按几何级数地; arithmetically:adv.算术上;[数]用算术方法;
So one of the characteristic problems of our time is how to close this gap between capabilities and foresight . [11:10]
characteristic:n.特征;特点;品质;adj.典型的;独特的;特有的; gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; foresight:n.先见,远见;预见;深谋远虑;
One other very positive consequence of 20th century technology though was the way in which other kinds of calamities could lead to positive advances. [11:18]
There are two historians of business at the University of Maryland , [11:31]
Maryland:n.马里兰(美国州名);
Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch , who have done some extremely interesting work, much of it still unpublished , on the history of major innovations . [11:36]
Brent:n.黑雁;布伦特(英国英格兰东南部城市); Kirsch:n.樱桃白兰地(樱桃发酵后经蒸馏制成,等于wasser); extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; unpublished:adj.未公开出版的;未发表过的; innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革;
They have combined the list of major innovations, and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade, for fundamental innovations, as reflected in all of the lists others have made -- a number of lists that they have merged -- was the Great Depression . [11:45]
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; merged:adj.(美俚)结了婚的;v.(使)合并,并入;相融;(merge的过去分词和过去式) Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
And nobody knows just why this was so, but one story can reflect something of it. [12:02]
It was the origin of the Xerox copier , which celebrated its 50th anniversary last year. [12:08]
Xerox:n.施乐(商标名,美国办公设备制造公司); vt.用静电复印法复印; copier:n.复印机(等于copyingmachine);抄写员;模仿者;
And Chester Carlson, the inventor, was a patent attorney . [12:16]
Chester:n.切斯特(美国港口城市);切斯特(英国一城市); attorney:n.律师(尤指代表当事人出庭者);(业务或法律事务上的)代理人;
He really was not intending to work in patent research, but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job. [12:24]
intending:adj.预期的;未来的;v.打算;计划;想要(intend的现在分词) alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
So this was the best job he could get. [12:33]
He was upset by the low quality and high cost of existing patent reproductions , and so he started to develop a system of dry photocopying , which he patented in the late 1930s -- and which became the first dry photocopier that was commercially practical in 1960. [12:35]
upset:adj.沮丧; v.打乱; n.苦恼; (意外的)混乱; reproductions:n.[古]复制品(reproduction的复数); photocopying:n.复印,照相复制;v.复印;影印(photocopy的ing形式); patented:adj.专利的; photocopier:n.影印机;复印机; practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课;
So we see that sometimes, as a result of these dislocations , as a result of people leaving their original intended career and going into something else where their creativity could make a difference , that depressions and all kinds of other unfortunate events can have a paradoxically stimulating effect on creativity. [12:59]
as a result:结果; dislocations:n.变位;位移;[地质]断错;[医]脱臼(dislocation的复数形式); career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; make a difference:有影响,有关系; depressions:n.[经]萧条(depression的复数形式);按下;抑制;[内科]抑郁症; paradoxically:adv.自相矛盾地;似非而是地;反常地; stimulating:adj.激励人的; v.促进; (stimulate的现在分词)
What does this mean? [13:22]
It means, I think, that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities. [13:24]
unexpected:adj.意外的,想不到的;
Think of the financial world for example. [13:28]
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, developed his system of value investing as a result of his own losses in the 1929 crash. [13:31]
mentor:n.指导者,良师益友;vt.指导; Warren:n.养兔场;大杂院;拥挤的地区; investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词)
And he published that book in the early 1930s, and the book still exists in further editions and is still a fundamental textbook. [13:43]
So many important creative things can happen when people learn from disasters . [13:52]
creative:adj.创造性的; disasters:n.灾难(disaster的复数);
Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now -- bed bugs, killer bees, spam -- and it's very possible that the solutions to those will really extend well beyond the immediate question. [13:59]
plagues:[医]瘟疫; spam:n.垃圾邮件;罐头猪肉; extend:vt.延伸; vi.延伸;
If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur, who in the 1860s was asked to study the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry, and his discoveries were really the beginning of the germ theory of disease. [14:14]
diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类; worms:n.蠕虫;寄生虫;幼虫;v.蠕动,曲折行进;(worm的第三人称单数和复数) germ:n.[植]胚芽,萌芽;细菌;vi.萌芽;
So very often, some kind of disaster -- sometimes the consequence, for example, of over-cultivation of silk worms, which was a problem in Europe at the time -- can be the key to something much bigger. [14:30]
over-cultivation:过度耕作;
So this means that we need to take a different view of unintended consequences. [14:43]
We need to take a really positive view. [14:49]
We need to see what they can do for us. [14:52]
We need to learn from those figures that I mentioned. [14:55]
We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing, who killed patients in the course of his early operations. [14:59]
patients:n.接受治疗者,病人;(patient的复数) in the course of:在…过程中;在…期间;
He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes. [15:06]
And he learned meticulously from his mistakes. [15:09]
meticulously:adv.细致地;一丝不苟地;拘泥地;
And as a result, when we say, "This isn't brain surgery," [15:12]
that pays tribute to how difficult it was for anyone to learn from their mistakes in a field of medicine that was considered so discouraging in its prospects . [15:17]
tribute:n.礼物;[税收]贡物;颂词;(尤指对死者的)致敬,悼念,吊唁礼物; discouraging:adj.使人沮丧的;阻止的;v.使灰心;阻止;劝阻;(discourage的现在分词) prospects:n.可能性; v.探矿; (prospect的第三人称单数和复数)
And we can also remember how the pharmaceutical companies were willing to pool their knowledge, to share their knowledge, in the face of an emergency , which they hadn't really been for years and years. [15:27]
in the face of:面对; emergency:n.紧急情况;突发事件;非常时刻;adj.紧急的;备用的;
They might have been able to do it earlier. [15:41]
The message, then, for me about unintended consequences is chaos happens; let's make better use of it. [15:44]
chaos:n.混沌,混乱; make better use of:更好地利用;更好利用;
Thank you very much. [15:54]
(Applause) [15:56]