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DidierSornette_2013G-_我们如何能够预测未来的金融危机_
Once upon a time we lived in an economy of financial growth and prosperity . [00:12]
Once upon a time:从前(常用于故事的开头) economy:n.经济;节约;理财; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; prosperity:n.繁荣,成功;
This was called the Great Moderation , the misguided belief by most economists, policymakers and central banks that we have transformed into a new world of never-ending growth and prosperity. [00:20]
Moderation:n.适度;节制;温和;缓和; misguided:adj.搞错的;v.误入歧途;指导错误;(misguide的过去式和过去分词) policymakers:n.决策人;(policymaker的复数) transformed:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);(transform的过去分词和过去式) never-ending:adj.不停的;无限的;
This was seen by robust and steady GDP growth, by low and controlled inflation , by low unemployment , and controlled and low financial volatility . [00:38]
robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的; steady:adj.稳定的; v.使稳定; v.稳定地; n.关系固定的情侣; inflation:n.膨胀;通货膨胀;夸张;自命不凡; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数; volatility:n.[化学]挥发性;易变;活泼;
But the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008, the great crash, broke this illusion . [00:52]
Recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回; illusion:n.幻觉,错觉;错误的观念或信仰;
A few hundred billion dollars of losses in the financial sector cascaded into five trillion dollars of losses in world GDP and almost $30 trillion losses in the global stock market . [01:02]
sector:n.部门;扇形,扇区;象限仪;函数尺;vt.把…分成扇形; cascaded:adj.[电]级联的;v.使串联(cascade的过去分词);瀑布般落下; trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; stock market:股票市场;证券市场;股票交易;
So the understanding of this Great Recession was that this was completely surprising, this came out of the blue , this was like the wrath of the gods. [01:21]
out of the blue:突然地;意外地; wrath:n.愤怒;激怒;
There was no responsibility. [01:36]
So, as a reflection of this, we started the Financial Crisis Observatory . [01:37]
reflection:n.反映;沉思;映像;深思; Crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; Observatory:n.天文台;气象台;瞭望台;
We had the goal to diagnose in real time financial bubbles and identify in advance their critical time. [01:43]
diagnose:vt.诊断;断定;vi.诊断;判断; real time:adj.实时的;接到指示立即执行的; bubbles:n.泡; v.起泡; (bubble的第三人称单数和复数) identify:v.识别:鉴定:确认:发现: in advance:adv.预先,提前; critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
What is the underpinning , scientifically , of this financial observatory? [01:55]
underpinning:n.基础材料;基础结构;v.基础;加强;巩固;(underpin的现在分词) scientifically:adv.系统地;合乎科学地;学问上;
We developed a theory called "dragon-kings." [01:58]
Dragon-kings represent extreme events which are of a class of their own. [02:03]
represent:v.代表;表现;描绘;回忆;再赠送; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物;
They are special. They are outliers . [02:10]
outliers:n.[分化]异常值;离群值;离开本体的东西;局外人(outlier的复数);
They are generated by specific mechanisms that may make them predictable , perhaps controllable . [02:12]
generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词) specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; mechanisms:n.机制;[机]机构(mechanism的复数);机械;[机]机构学; predictable:adj.可预言的; controllable:adj.可控制的;可管理的;能操纵的;
Consider the financial price time series , a given stock, your perfect stock, or a global index . [02:22]
series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书; index:n.指标;指数;索引;指针;v.做索引;指出;编入索引中;
You have these up-and-downs. [02:30]
A very good measure of the risk of this financial market is the peaks-to-valleys that represent a worst case scenario when you bought at the top and sold at the bottom. [02:32]
scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本;
You can look at the statistics , the frequency of the occurrence of peak-to-valleys of different sizes, which is represented in this graph. [02:44]
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数) frequency:n.频率;发生率;重复率;频繁; occurrence:n.发生;出现;存在;发生的事情; represented:v.代表; (represent的过去式和过去分词)
Now, interestingly , 99 percent of the peak-to-valleys of different amplitudes can be represented by a universal power law represented by this red line here. [02:53]
interestingly:adv.有趣地; amplitudes:n.振幅(amplitude的复数); universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的;
More interestingly, there are outliers, there are exceptions which are above this red line, occur 100 times more frequently , at least, than the extrapolation would predict them to occur [03:06]
frequently:adv.频繁地,经常地;时常,屡次; extrapolation:n.[数]外推法;推断;
based on the calibration of the 99 percent remaining peak-to-valleys. [03:20]
calibration:n.校准;刻度;标度;
They are due to trenchant dependancies such that a loss is followed by a loss which is followed by a loss which is followed by a loss. [03:27]
trenchant:adj.尖刻的;锐利的;苛刻的;锋利的(名词trenchancy,副词trenchantly);
These kinds of dependencies are largely missed by standard risk management tools, which ignore them and see lizards when they should see dragon-kings. [03:38]
dependencies:n.依赖性,相关性;管理; largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; management:n.管理;管理人员;管理部门;操纵;经营手段; ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬; lizards:n.[动]蜥蜴,蜥蜴爬虫类动物;(lizard的复数)
The root mechanism of a dragon-king is a slow maturation towards instability , which is the bubble, and the climax of the bubble is often the crash. [03:53]
maturation:n.成熟;化脓;生殖细胞之形成; instability:n.不稳定(性);基础薄弱;不安定; climax:n.(重要事情或时刻的)高潮,顶点; v.达成(或形成)极点(或顶点、高潮);
This is similar to the slow heating of water in this test tube reaching the boiling point , where the instability of the water occurs and you have the phase transition to vapor . [04:04]
test tube:adj.人工授精的;在试验管中作成的;n.试管;试验管;人工受精; boiling point:n.沸点;极度愤怒;(某种状态的)爆发点; occurs:v.重现(occur的第三人称单数); phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做; transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡; vapor:n.蒸汽;烟雾;vt.使…蒸发;使…汽化;vi.蒸发;吹牛;沮丧;
And this process , which is absolutely non-linear -- cannot be predicted by standard techniques -- is the reflection of a collective emergent behavior which is fundamentally endogenous . [04:17]
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; non-linear:adj.非线性的;非直线的; predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式) techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数) collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词; emergent:adj.紧急的;浮现的;意外的;自然发生的; fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 endogenous:adj.[生物]内生的;内因性的;
So the cause of the crash, the cause of the crisis has to be found in an inner instability of the system, and any tiny perturbation will make this instability occur. [04:29]
inner:n.内部;射中接近靶心部分的一发;adj.里面的;向内的;内部的;接近中心的; perturbation:n.[数][天]摄动;不安;扰乱;
Now, some of you may have come to the mind that is this not related to the black swan concept you have heard about frequently? [04:42]
swan:n.天鹅;天鹅星座;vi.游荡,闲荡;
Remember, black swan is this rare bird that you see once and suddenly shattered your belief that all swans should be white, so it has captured the idea of unpredictability , unknowability, that the extreme events are fundamentally unknowable . [04:51]
shattered:adj.受到严重打击的; v.(使)破碎,碎裂; (shatter的过去式和过去分词) swans:n.天鹅(swan的复数);v.闲荡(swan的第三人称单数形式); captured:adj.捕获的;被俘的;v.捕获;占领;引起;(capture的过去式和过去分词) unpredictability:n.不可预测性,不可预知性;不可预见性; unknowable:adj.不可知的;不能知道的;
Nothing can be further from the dragon-king concept I propose , which is exactly the opposite, that most extreme events are actually knowable and predictable. [05:07]
propose:v.建议;提议;求婚;打算;
So we can be empowered and take responsibility and make predictions about them. [05:18]
empowered:v.授权;给(某人)…的权力;(empower的过去分词和过去式) predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式);
So let's have my dragon-king burn this black swan concept. [05:24]
(Laughter) [05:27]
There are many early warning signals that are predicted by this theory. [05:29]
early warning:adj.预先警报的,预警的;远程警戒的;
Let me just focus on one of them: the super-exponential growth with positive feedback . [05:34]
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; feedback:n.反馈;反馈意见;回授;[电子]反馈;
What does it mean? [05:39]
Imagine you have an investment that returns the first year five percent, the second year 10 percent, the third year 20 percent, the next year 40 percent. Is that not marvelous ? [05:40]
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; marvelous:adj.了不起的;非凡的;令人惊异的;不平常的;
This is a super-exponential growth. [05:52]
A standard exponential growth corresponds to a constant growth rate, let's say, of 10 percent [05:55]
exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数; corresponds:v.相一致;符合;类似于;相当于;通信;(correspond的第三人称单数)
The point is that, many times during bubbles, there are positive feedbacks which can be of many times, such that previous growths enhance , push forward , increase the next growth through this kind of super-exponential growth, which is very trenchant, not sustainable . [06:01]
feedbacks:n.回馈; previous:adj.以前的;早先的;过早的;adv.在先;在…以前; enhance:v.提高;增强;增进; push forward:推进;抓紧进行; sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的;
And the key idea is that the mathematical solution of this class of models exhibit finite-time singularities , which means that there is a critical time where the system will break, will change regime . [06:20]
mathematical:adj.数学的,数学上的;精确的; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; exhibit:v.展览;表现;展出;n.陈列品;(在法庭上出示的)物证; singularities:n.奇异性;[数]奇异点(singularity的复数); regime:n.政权,政体;社会制度;管理体制;
It may be a crash. It may be just a plateau , something else. [06:34]
plateau:n.高原; n.[地名][肯尼亚,美国]普拉托; n.(活动或进程中的)稳定阶段,停滞时期; adj.高原印第安人的;
And the key idea is that the critical time, the information about the critical time is contained in the early development of this super-exponential growth. [06:37]
We have applied this theory early on, that was our first success, to the diagnostic of the rupture of key elements on the iron rocket. [06:47]
applied:adj.应用的;实用的;v.应用;使用;申请,请求;(apply的过去分词和过去式) diagnostic:adj.诊断的;特征的;n.诊断法;诊断结论; rupture:n.破裂;决裂;疝气;vi.破裂;发疝气;vt.使破裂;断绝;发生疝; elements:n.要素;基本部分;少量;一群;(element的复数)
Using acoustic emission , you know, this little noise that you hear a structure emit , sing to you when they are stressed, and reveal the damage going on, [06:58]
acoustic:adj.声学的;音响的;听觉的;n.原声乐器;不用电传音的乐器; emission:n.(光、热等的)发射,散发;喷射;发行; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造; emit:v.发出,射出,散发(光、热、声音、气等); reveal:v.显示;透露;揭露;泄露;n.揭露;暴露;门侧,窗侧;
there's a collective phenomenon of positive feedback, the more damage gives the more damage, so you can actually predict, within, of course, a probability band , when the rupture will occur. [07:07]
phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物); probability:n.可能性;机率;[数]或然率; band:n.带;波段;频带;箍;v.加彩条(或嵌条等);(将价格、收入等)划分档次;
So this is now so successful that it is used in the initial phase of [unclear] the flight. [07:17]
initial:adj.最初的; n.(名字的)首字母; v.用姓名的首字母作标记(或签名)于;
Perhaps more surprisingly , the same type of theory applies to biology and medicine, parturition , the act of giving birth, epileptic seizures . [07:24]
surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地 applies:v.适用;申请;运用;专心;(apply的第三人称单数) biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; parturition:n.分娩,生产; epileptic:n.癫痫患者;adj.癫痫的,癫痫性的; seizures:n.癫痫,痉挛;发作(seizure的复数);
From seven months of pregnancy , a mother starts to feel episodic precursory contractions of the uterus that are the sign of these maturations toward the instability, giving birth to the baby, the dragon-king. [07:33]
pregnancy:n.怀孕;丰富,多产;意义深长; episodic:adj.插话式的; precursory:adj.前兆的(等于precursive);先驱的; contractions:n.收缩;缩略形式(contraction的复数); uterus:n.[解剖]子宫;
So if you measure the precursor signal, you can actually identify pre- and post-maturity problems in advance. [07:52]
Epileptic seizures also come in a large variety of size, and when the brain goes to a super-critical state, you have dragon-kings which have a degree of predictability and this can help the patient to deal with this illness. [08:03]
variety:n.多样;种类;杂耍;变化,多样化; super-critical:超临界; patient:adj.有耐心的,能容忍的;n.病人;患者;
We have applied this theory to many systems, landslides , glacier collapse , even to the dynamics of prediction of success: blockbusters , YouTube videos, movies, and so on. [08:19]
landslides:n.[地质]滑坡; v.在竞选中以压倒优胜获胜; glacier:n.冰河,冰川; collapse:vi.倒塌;瓦解;暴跌;vt.使倒塌,使崩溃;使萎陷;折叠;n.倒塌;失败;衰竭; dynamics:n.动力学,力学; blockbusters:n.大片(blockbuster的复数);巨型炸弹;风靡一时的事物;
But perhaps the most important application is for finance , and this theory illuminates , I believe, the deep reason for the financial crisis that we have gone through. [08:32]
application:n.应用;申请;应用程序;敷用; finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费; illuminates:v.照明;阐释(illuminate的第三人称单数形式);
This is rooted in 30 years of history of bubbles, starting in 1980, with the global bubble crashing in 1987, followed by many other bubbles. [08:43]
The biggest one was the "new economy" Internet bubble in 2000, crashing in 2000, the real estate bubbles in many countries, financial derivative bubbles everywhere, stock market bubbles also everywhere, [08:56]
real estate:n.房地产;不动产; derivative:n.[化学]衍生物,派生物;导数;adj.派生的;引出的;
commodity and all bubbles, debt and credit bubbles -- bubbles, bubbles, bubbles. [09:07]
commodity:n.商品,货物;日用品; debt:n.债务;借款;罪过;
We had a global bubble. [09:14]
This is a measure of global overvaluation of all markets, expressing what I call an illusion of a perpetual money machine that suddenly broke in 2007. [09:17]
overvaluation:un.计划过高; expressing:v.表示;表达;表露;显而易见;(express的现在分词) perpetual:adj.永久的;不断的;四季开花的;无期限的;
The problem is that we see the same process, in particular through quantitative easing, of a thinking of a perpetual money machine nowadays to tackle the crisis since 2008 in the U.S., in Europe, in Japan. [09:32]
in particular:尤其,特别; quantitative:adj.定量的;量的,数量的; tackle:v.处理; n.用具;
This has very important implications to understand the failure of quantitative easing as well as austerity measures as long as we don't attack the core , the structural cause of this perpetual money machine thinking. [09:49]
implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数); as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且; austerity:n.紧缩;朴素;苦行;严厉; as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然; core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核; structural:adj.结构的;建筑的;
Now, these are big claims . [10:05]
claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数)
Why would you believe me? [10:08]
Well, perhaps because, in the last 15 years we have come out of our ivory tower , and started to publish ex ante -- and I stress the term ex ante, it means "in advance" — before the crash confirmed the existence of the bubble or the financial excesses . [10:11]
ivory tower:n.象牙塔(指远离问题、脱离现实的小天地); publish:v.出版;发表;公布; ante:vt.下赌注;付款;vi.下赌注;付款;n.赌注;预付款; excesses:n.过份荒淫的行为; v.暂不聘任;
These are a few of the major bubbles that we have lived through in recent history. [10:28]
Again, many interesting stories for each of them. [10:36]
Let me tell you just one or two stories that deal with massive bubbles. [10:39]
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的;
We all know the Chinese miracle . [10:44]
miracle:n.奇迹,奇迹般的人或物;惊人的事例;
This is the expression of the stock market of a massive bubble, a factor of three, 300 percent in just a few years. [10:46]
expression:n.表现,表示,表达; factor:n.因素;要素;[物]因数;代理人;v.做代理商;v.把…作为因素计入;
In September 2007, [10:54]
I was invited as a keynote speaker of a macro hedge fund management conference , and I showed to the conference a prediction that by the end of 2007, this bubble would change regime. [10:57]
keynote:n.基调;主旨;主音;vt.给…定基调;说明基本政策;vi.作主旨发言; macro:adj.巨大的,大量的;n.宏,巨(计算机术语); hedge fund:对冲基金; conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
There might be a crash. Certainly not sustainable. [11:14]
Now, how do you believe the very smart, very motivated , very informed macro hedge fund managers reacted to this prediction? [11:17]
motivated:adj.有动机的; v.使产生动机; informed:adj.见多识广的; v.通知; (inform的过去分词和过去式) reacted:v.起反应; (react的过去分词和过去式)
You know, they had made billions just surfing this bubble until now. [11:29]
surfing:v.冲浪;进行冲浪运动;(互联网上)浏览;(surf的现在分词)
They told me, " Didier , yeah, the market might be overvalued , but you forget something. [11:34]
Didier:n.酷狗大圣(电影名); overvalued:v.估计过高;过于重视;(overvalue的过去式和过去分词)
There is the Beijing Olympic Games coming in August 2008, and it's very clear that the Chinese government is controlling the economy and doing what it takes to also avoid any wave and control the stock market." [11:41]
Olympic Games:n.奥林匹克运动会;奥运会;
Three weeks after my presentation , the markets lost 20 percent and went through a phase of volatility, upheaval , and a total market loss of 70 percent until the end of the year. [11:54]
presentation:n.展示;描述,陈述;介绍;赠送; upheaval:n.剧变;隆起;举起;
So how can we be so collectively wrong by misreading or ignoring the science of the fact that when an instability has developed, and the system is ripe , any perturbation makes it essentially impossible to control? [12:06]
collectively:adv.共同地,全体地; misreading:n.读错;误解;v.误解;读错;误读;(misread的现在分词) ignoring:v.忽略,忽视;(ignore的现在分词); ripe:adj.成熟的;口味浓郁的;醇美可口的;强烈的; essentially:adv.本质上;本来;
The Chinese market collapsed , but it rebounded . [12:22]
collapsed:v.倒塌,坍塌;倒下,昏倒;坐下;(collapse的过去分词和过去式) rebounded:n.回弹; vi.回升; vt.使弹回; v.重新装订(rebind的过去式和过去分词);
In 2009, we also identified that this new bubble, a smaller one, was unsustainable , so we published again a prediction, in advance, stating that by August 2009, the market will correct, will not continue on this track . [12:27]
identified:v.确认;认出;找到;发现;说明身份;(identify的过去式和过去分词) unsustainable:adj.无法支撑的;不可证实的;不能成立的; track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;
Our critics , reading the prediction, said, "No, it's not possible. [12:45]
critics:n.评论家;批评者;吹毛求疵的人(critic的复数);
The Chinese government is there. [12:52]
They have learned their lesson. They will control. [12:53]
They want to benefit from the growth." [12:56]
Perhaps these critics have not learned their lesson previously . [12:58]
previously:adv.先前;以前;
So the crisis did occur. The market corrected. [13:01]
The same critics then said, "Ah, yes, but you published your prediction. [13:05]
You influenced the market. [13:09]
influenced:v.影响;对…起作用;支配;左右;(influence的过去分词和过去式)
It was not a prediction." [13:11]
Maybe I am very powerful then. [13:14]
Now, this is interesting. [13:18]
It shows that it's essentially impossible until now to develop a science of economics because we are sentient beings who anticipate and there is a problem of self-fulfilling prophesies . [13:20]
sentient:adj.有感情的;有感觉力的;意识到的;n.有知觉的人; anticipate:v.预期,期望;占先,抢先;提前使用; self-fulfilling:adj.实现自己抱负的,自我实现的; prophesies:vt.预言;预告;vi.预言;预报;传教;
So we invented a new way of doing science. [13:32]
We created the Financial Bubble Experiment. [13:36]
The idea is the following. We monitor the markets. [13:38]
We identify excesses, bubbles. [13:41]
We do our work. We write a report in which we put our prediction of the critical time. [13:45]
We don't release the report. It's kept secret. [13:53]
release:v.释放;发射;让与;允许发表;n.释放;发布;让与;
But with modern encrypting techniques, we have a hash , we publish a public key, and six months later, we release the report, and there is authentication . [13:55]
encrypting:v.加密(encrypt的ing形式); hash:n.剁碎的食物;混杂,拼凑;重新表述;v.搞糟,把…弄乱;切细;推敲; authentication:n.证明;鉴定;证实;
And all this is done on an international archive so that we cannot be accused of just releasing the successes. [14:09]
archive:n.档案馆;档案文件; accused:v.控告;控诉;谴责;(accuse的过去分词和过去式) releasing:n.释放;松释动作;脱扣释放;v.释放;排放;(release的现在分词);
Let me tease you with a very recent analysis . [14:18]
tease:v.取笑; n.戏弄; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定;
17th of May, 2013, just two weeks ago, we identified that the U.S. stock market was on an unsustainable path and we released this on our website on the 21st of May that there will be a change of regime. [14:21]
released:v.释放;使免除;已发布;(release的过去分词和过去式)
The next day, the market started to change regime, course. [14:34]
This is not a crash. [14:39]
This is just the third or fourth act of a massive bubble in the making. [14:40]
Scaling up the discussion at the size of the planet, we see the same thing. [14:46]
Scaling:n.缩放比例; v.剥落;
Wherever we look, it's observable : in the biosphere , in the atmosphere , in the ocean, showing these super-exponential trajectories characterizing an unsustainable path and announcing a phase transition. [14:50]
observable:adj.显著的;觉察得到的;看得见的;n.[物]可观察量;感觉到的事物; biosphere:n.生物圈; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格; trajectories:n.轨迹;轨道线(trajectory的复数形式); characterizing:vt.描绘…的特性;具有…的特征;vi.塑造人物;
This diagram on the right shows a very beautiful compilation of studies suggesting indeed that there is a nonlinear -- possibility for a nonlinear transition just in the next few decades. [15:05]
compilation:n.编辑; nonlinear:adj.非线性的;
So there are bubbles everywhere. [15:18]
From one side, this is exciting for me, as a professor who chases bubbles and slays dragons , as the media has sometimes called me. [15:21]
slays:v.杀害,杀死;使禁不住大笑; dragons:n.龙;悍妇;母夜叉;(dragon的复数) media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
But can we really slay the dragons? [15:31]
Very recently , with collaborators , we studied a dynamical system where you see the dragon-king as these big loops and we were able to apply tiny perturbations at the right times that removed, when control is on, these dragons. [15:34]
recently:adv.最近;新近; collaborators:n.[劳经]合作者;投敌者(collaborator的复数); dynamical:adj.充满活力的;活跃的;精力充沛的;不断变化的; loops:n.[计]循环(loop复数); v.使...成环,以圈结,以环连结(loop的第三人称单数形式); apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求; perturbations:n.[流]扰动;不安(perturbation的复数形式);
'"Gouverner, c'est prévoir." [15:51]
Governing is the art of planning and predicting . [15:54]
predicting:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的现在分词)
But is it not the case that this is probably one of the biggest gaps of mankind , which has the responsibility to steer our societies and our planet toward sustainability in the face of growing challenges and crises ? [15:59]
gaps:n.差异,缺口;缝隙(gap的复数形式);v.裂开;使豁裂(gap的第三人称单数形式); mankind:n.人类;男性; steer:v.引导;控制;操纵;驾驶(船、汽车等);n.建议;劝告;忠告;阉公牛; sustainability:n.持续性;永续性;能维持性; in the face of:面对; crises:n.危机,紧要关头;危险期(crisis的复数形式);
But the dragon-king theory gives hope. [16:17]
We learn that most systems have pockets of predictability. [16:21]
It is possible to develop advance diagnostics of crises so that we can be prepared, we can take measures, we can take responsibility, and so that never again will extremes and crises like the Great Recession or the European crisis take us by surprise. [16:25]
diagnostics:n.诊断学(用作单数); extremes:n.极端不同的感情;极端;极度;极限;(extreme的复数)
Thank you. [16:47]
(Applause) [16:49]