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DavidWallaceWells_2019S-_我们要如何改变地球的气候未来？_-
I'm here to talk about climate change, but I'm not really an environmentalist . 我来这里是要谈气候变迁, 但我其实不是环境学家。
environmentalist:n.环保人士;环境论者;研究环境问题的专家;
In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person. 事实上,我从来没有想过 我会是个关心大自然的人。
I have never gone camping, never gone hiking, never even owned a pet. 我从来没有去露营或健行过, 从来没有养过宠物。
I've lived my whole life in cities, actually just one city. 我一生都住在城市中, 且都是同一个城市。
And while I like to take trips to visit nature, 虽然我喜欢外出旅行去看大自然,
I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere , far away, with all of modern life a fortress against its forces. 但我总认为气候变迁 发生在其他地方, 很远的地方, 而现代生活是座保垒,
elsewhere:adv.在别处;到别处; fortress:n.城堡;堡垒;要塞;设防的地方;
In other words, like just about everybody I knew, 换言之, 就和我认识的所有人一样,
I lived my life complacent and deluded about the threat from global warming . 我过着自我满足的生活, 搞不清楚 全球暖化的威胁。
complacent:adj.自满的;得意的;满足的; deluded:adj.轻信的;受蒙骗的;v.欺骗;使失望(delude的过去分词); global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖;
Which I took to be happening slowly, happening at a distance and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived. 我以为全球暖化发生的速度很慢, 发生在很远的地方, 且对我所过的生活 不会有太大的威胁。
at a distance:在远处;有相当距离; representing:v.代表;维护…的利益;等于;相当于;(represent的现在分词) modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的;
In each of these ways, 上述的每个想法,
I was very, very wrong. 都大错特错。
Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change, will tell you a story about the future. 通常别人跟你谈气候变迁时, 都会说未来的故事。
If I was doing that, I would say, " According to the UN, if we don't change course, by the end of the century, we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming." 如果是我,我会说: 「联合国说,这世纪末前 我们再不做出改变, 我们就会有摄氏四度的暖化。」
According to:根据,据说; Celsius:adj.摄氏的;n.摄氏度;
That would mean, some scientists believe, twice as much war, half as much food, a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change. 有些科学家相信,四度的暖化就表示 战争会加倍、 食物会减半、 全球 GDP 可能会比没有 气候变迁的状况低 20%。
That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression , and it would be permanent . 这个冲击比经济大蕭条更深, 且会是永久性的。
impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁; permanent:adj.永久的,永恒的;n.烫发;
But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100. 但,影响其实发生得很快, 远早于 2100 年。
impacts:n.影响; v.有影响,有作用;
By just 2050, it's estimated , many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer. 估计到了 2050 年, 南亚和中东的许多大城市 在夏天会热到几乎无法居住。
estimated:adj.估计的;预计的;估算的; Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部); literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people. 现今有一千万、一千两百万、
And in just three decades, you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them without risking heatstroke or possibly death. 只要再三十年, 你只要在这些城市的室外走动 就有中暑的风险,甚至可能会死亡。
heatstroke:n.[中医]中暑;
The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before industrialization . 地球现在的温度已经比工業化之前 高出摄氏 1.1 度了。
industrialization:n.工业化;
That may not sound like a lot, but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures that enclose all of human history. 听起来可能不太多, 但那就已经让我们的温度落在 整个人类历史的温度范围之外了。
enclose:adj.封闭的;附上的;v.把…围起来;围住;附上;
That means that everything we have ever known as a species , the evolution of the human animal, the development of agriculture, the development of rudimentary civilization 那就表示,我们人类所知道的一切, 人类动物的演化, 农業的发展, 初期文明、现代文明、
species:n.[生物]物种;种类; rudimentary:adj.基本的;初步的;退化的;残遗的;未发展的; civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明;
and modern civilization and industrial civilization, everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures , as social creatures , as political creatures , all of it is the result of climate conditions we have already left behind. 工業文明的发展, 我们对于我们这种生物动物、 社交动物、政治动物所知的一切, 所有这些,通通都是 我们过去气候条件的结果。
biological:adj.生物学的;生物的;与生命过程有关的;加酶的;n.[药]生物制品; creatures:n.生物;动物;(具有某种特征的)人(creature的复数)
It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet, with an entirely different climate. 现在彷佛我们降落在 一个不同的星球上, 这里有着不同的气候。
And we now have to figure out what of the civilization that we've brought with us can endure these new conditions and what can't. 现在我们得弄清楚 我们带来的文明中,有哪些 可以承受这些新条件, 哪些不能。
endure:v.忍受;忍耐;持续;持久;
And things will get worse from here. 且,从此之后,只会每况愈下。
Now for a very long time, we were told that climate change was a slow saga . 有很长一段时间, 我们都听说气候变化 是个很缓慢的传说。
saga:n.传说;冒险故事;英雄事迹;
It started with the industrial revolution , and it had fallen to us to clean up the mess left by our grandparents so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results. 它从工業革命开始, 替我们的上上代收拾善后 变成是我们的责任, 这样我们的孩子才不用 去面对那些后果。
industrial revolution:n.工业革命; mess:n.混乱;餐厅;杂乱;肮脏;v.使不整洁;弄脏;弄乱;随地便溺;
It was a story of centuries. 这是个横跨数世纪的故事。
In fact, half of all of the emissions that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels in the entire history of humanity have been produced in just the last 30 years. 事实上,在整个人类历史中, 因为燃烧化石燃料所产生的排放量, 有一半都是在过去三十年间产生的。
emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数) fossil:n.化石;老人;老古董;adj.从地下发掘出来的;化石的;属于旧时代的;陈腐的; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming. 也就是在高尔出版了他的 第一本关于暖化的书之后。
It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body. 也就是联合国建立了政府间 气候变化专门委员会之后。
established:adj.已确立的;著名的;v.建立;创立;设立;(establish的过去分词和过去式)
We've done more damage since then than in all the centuries, all the millennia before. 我们在那之后所造成的伤害 就已经超过了在那之前 数百年、数千年的伤害。
millennia:n.千年期(millennium的复数);一千年;千年庆典;太平盛世;
which means my life contains this entire story. 那就表示我的人生会经历这整个故事。
When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable . 我出生时,地球的气候似乎还稳定。
stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房;
Today, we are on the brink of catastrophe . 现今, 我们已经在大灾难的边缘。
on the brink of:即将要;濒于;濒临;在…的边缘; catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败;
The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors. 气候危机不是我们祖先的遗产。
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; legacy:n.遗赠,遗产;
It is the work of a single generation. 它是一个世代的杰作。
Ours. 我们这个世代。
This may all sound like bad news. 可能听起来通通都是坏消息。
Which it is, really bad news. 的确,都是坏消息。
But it also contains, I think, some good news, at least relatively speaking. 但,我认为,当中也有 一些好消息,至少相对算好。
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
These impacts are terrifyingly large. 这些影响大得惊人。
terrifyingly:adv.惊人地;令人害怕地;
But they are also, I think, exhilarating . 但,我想,它们也令人振奋。
exhilarating:adj.令人兴奋的; v.使高兴; (exhilarate的现在分词)
Because they are ultimately a reflection of how much power we have over the climate. 因为最终它们是一种反映, 反映出我们对气候有多少控制权。
ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究; reflection:n.反映;沉思;映像;深思;
If we get to those hellish scenarios , it will be because we have made them happen, because we have chosen to make them happen. 如果我们之后发生了 那些可怖的情况, 那是因为我们造成的, 是我们选择让那些情况发生的。
hellish:adj.地狱的;凶恶的;令人毛骨悚然的; scenarios:n.情节;脚本;情景介绍(scenario的复数);
Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too. 那就表示,我们也可以 选择让其他情况发生。
Now that may seem too rosy to believe and the political obstacles are in fact enormous . 那听起来可能太美好,很难置信, 且实际上的政治阻碍很巨大。
rosy:adj.蔷薇色的,玫瑰红色的;美好的;乐观的;涨红脸的; obstacles:n.障碍;障碍物;阻碍;(obstacle的复数形式) enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的;
But it is a simple fact -- the main driver of global warming is human action: 但事实很简单—— 全球暖化的主要推手 就是人类行为:
How much carbon we put into the atmosphere . 我们把多少碳送到大气中。
carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格;
Our hands are on those levers . 我们的手就在那些控制杆上。
levers:n.杠杆;手段(lever的复数);v.用杠杆撬动(lever的第三人称单数);
And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves. 我们自己能撰写关于 地球气候未来的故事。
Not just can -- but are. 不是「能」——是「正在」。
Since inaction is a kind of action, we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not. 因为不行动也是一种行动, 不论我们喜欢与否, 我们都会写下那个故事。
inaction:n.不活动;迟钝;
This is not just any story, all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands. 这不只是一个故事而已, 地球的未来就掌控在 我们所有人的手中。
It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology and theology . 这是以前我们只会在神话和神学当中才会看到的故事。
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; mythology:n.神话;神话学;神话集; theology:n.神学;宗教体系;
A single generation that has brought the future of humanity into doubt now tasked with securing a new future. 单单一个世代 就让人类的未来存疑, 现在这个世代的任务 是要确保有崭新的未来。
So what would that look like? 那会是什么样子的？
It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet, really everywhere you looked. 可能会是太阳能板遍布地球, 真的到处都可见到。
It could mean if we developed better technology , we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly , because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs. 这可能表示我们开发出更好的技术, 我们甚至不用广泛施行这项技术, 因为,据估计, 光是撒哈拉沙漠的一小块 就足以吸收足够的太阳能, 供应全世界需要的能量。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; deploy:v.部署;利用;[军事]展开;(使)张开; broadly:adv.明显地;宽广地;概括地;露骨地;粗鄙地; absorbs:v.吸收;吸引…的注意(absorb的第三人称单数形式);
But we'd probably need a new electric grid , one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat, as is today the case in the US. 但我们可能会需要新的电力网, 且不能像现今美国的电力网, 把三分之二的电力浪费在废热上。
electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的; grid:n.网格;格子,栅格;输电网; two-thirds:n.三分之二;三分之二的;三分之二地;
We could use some more nuclear power , perhaps, although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power , because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly. 我们可能会需要更多一些核能, 不过,会是完全不同类的核能, 因为现今的技术 在成本上没有竞争力, 无法和成本快速下降的 再生能源竞争。
nuclear power:na.核大国; cost-competitive:有成本竞争力的; renewable:adj.可再生的;可更新的;可继续的;n.再生性能源;
We'd need a new kind of plane, because I don't think it's particularly practical to ask the entire world to give up on air travel, especially as so much of the global South is, for the very first time, able to afford it. 我们会需要一种新飞机, 因为我认为,要求全世界都放弃 航空旅行是不太实际的做法, 特别是因为这是 大部分南半球有史以来 第一次能负担得起航空旅行。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
We need planes that won't produce carbon. 我们需要不会产生碳的飞机。
We need a new kind of agriculture. 我们需要一种新的农業。
Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan , it would mean a new way of raising beef. 因为我们可能无法要求大家 完全放弃吃肉,改吃素, 那就表示要用新方法来飼养食用牛。
vegan:n.(英)严格的素食主义者;adj.严守素食主义的;
Or perhaps an old way, since we already know that traditional pasturing practices can turn cattle farms from what are called carbon sources , which produce CO2, into carbon sinks, which absorb them. 或者也许可以延用古早的方法, 因为我们已经知道传统放牧法 会让养牛场 从产生二氧化碳的碳来源 转变成能吸收碳的碳汇。
traditional:传统的,惯例的, pasturing:v.放牧;放(牛羊)吃草;把(土地)作牧场用;(pasture的现在分词) sources:n.来源;出处;起源;根源;原因;v.(从…)获得(source的第三人称单数和复数)
If you prefer a techno solution , maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab. 若你偏好技术性解决方案, 也许我们可以在实验室中 培养出一些肉类。
prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed , because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent. 也许我们可以用海草来喂牛, 因为那会将牠们的甲烷排放 减低 95% 或 99%。
seaweed:n.海藻,海草; methane:n.[有化]甲烷;[能源]沼气;
Probably, we'd have to do all of these things, because as with every aspect of this puzzle , the problem is simply too vast and complicated to solve in any single silver-bullet way. 可能上述的通通都要做到, 因为,不论是这个难题的哪个面向, 问题都太大、太复杂, 无法用万能的单一招式来解决。
aspect:n.方面;层面;外观;方位; puzzle:n.谜;疑问;智力游戏;不解之谜;v.迷惑;使困惑; complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
And no matter how many solutions we deploy, we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time. 不论我们施行多少种解决方案, 我们可能都无法即时将碳除去。
decarbonize:vt.除去碳素;脱去…的碳(等于decarburize);
That's the terrifying math that we face. 我们面对的是很骇人的数学。
We won't be able to beat climate change, only live with it and limit it. 我们将无法打败气候变迁, 只能和它共存并限制它。
And that means we'd probably need some amount of what are called negative emissions, which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well. 那就表示我们可能会需要 一些所谓的负排放, 也就是将碳从大气中去除。
negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝;
Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees. 数十亿,可能数兆棵新树木。
trillions:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines. 还有一大片的捕碳机器。
plantations:n.[农]种植园(plantation的复数形式); carbon-capture:碳捕获;碳捕捉;发电和碳捕获;
Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size of today's oil and gas business to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades. 可能还要有一个产業,规模是 现今石油天然气事業的二或四倍, 来将那些事業在过去数十年 所造成的伤害给还原。
We would need a new kind of infrastructure , poured by a different kind of cement , because today, if cement were a country, it would be the world's third biggest emitter . 我们会需要一种新的基础建设, 注入不同类的水泥, 因为,现今,如果水泥是个国家, 它会是全世界第三大的排放国。
infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; poured:v.使(液体)连续流出;倾倒;倒出;喷发;(pour的过去分词和过去式) cement:n.水泥;(干燥后硬化的)水泥;胶合剂;胶接剂;v.加强;胶合; emitter:n.发射器,发射体;
And China is pouring as much cement every three years as the US poured in the entire 20th century. 中国每三年所使用的水泥量 相当于美国在整个 二十世纪所使用的量。
pouring:v.倾倒;倾泻;连续流出;倒出;喷发;(pour的现在分词)
We would need to build seawalls and levees to protect those people living on the coast, many of whom are too poor to build them today, which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics 我们也需要建立防波堤和堤坝 来保护住在海岸边的人, 这些人当中有许多都 太贫穷,无法筑堤, 这就是为什么,必须要终结狭隘的 国家主义地缘政治,
seawalls:n.海塘;防波堤; levees:防洪堤(levee的复数); narrowly:adv.仔细地;勉强地;狭窄地;严密地; nationalistic:adj.民族主义的;国家的; geopolitics:n.地缘政治学;地理政治论;
that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world as insignificant , when we even acknowledge it. 不要再把世界上其他地方的人所受到的苦难定义为不重要的, 且我们还承认那些苦难。
define:v.定义;使明确;规定; insignificant:adj.无关紧要的;
This better future won't be easy. 这个更好的未来并不容易达成。
But the only obstacles are human ones. 但唯一的障碍就是人为障碍。
That may not be much of a comfort, if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference , but I promise you, it is better than the alternative . 如果你知道我所知道的 人类残酷和冷漠, 可能会觉得这一点也不让人欣慰, 但我向各位保证, 这还是比其他选择更好。
brutality:n.无情;残忍;暴行(需用复数形式); indifference:n.漠不关心;冷淡;不重视;中立; alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择;
Science isn't stopping us from taking action, and neither is technology. 科学并没有阻止我们采取行动, 技术也没有。
We have the tools we need today to begin. 我们现今已经有起步 所需要的工具了。
Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty , epidemic disease and the abuse of women as well. 当然,我们也有必要的工具可以终结全球贫困、大流行的疾病, 还有对女性的虐待。
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病; abuse:n.滥用;虐待;辱骂;弊端;恶习,陋习;v.滥用;虐待;辱骂;
Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics, a way of overcoming all those human obstacles -- our culture, our economics, our status quo bias , our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us. 这就是为什么我们需要 新政治多于新工具, 我们需要一种方式来克服 所有这些人为障碍—— 我们的文化、我们的经济、 我们的现况偏见、 我们没有意愿想要认真看待 会让我们害怕的事物。
overcoming:v.克服;解决;战胜;(overcome的现在分词) status quo:n.现状;原来的状况; bias:adv.使有偏见;n.偏见;偏心;偏爱;v.使有偏见;使偏向;adj.斜的;[电]偏动的; disinterest:n.不关心;无兴趣;vt.使不关心;
Our shortsightedness . 我们的短浅目光。
shortsightedness:n.近视;
Our sense of self-interest . 我们的自利。
self-interest:n.私利;利己主义;
And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful who have the least incentive to change anything. 以及世界上有钱有权 且最没有动机去改变的人的自私。
selfishness:n.自私自利;自我中心;任性; incentive:n.动机;刺激;adj.激励的;刺激的;
Now, they will suffer too, but not as much as those with the least, who have done the least to produce warming and have benefited the least from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point but will be burdened most in the decades ahead. 他们将来也会受苦, 但不会像弱势的人那么苦, 弱势的人对暖化的贡献最少, 在把我们带到现今 这个危机点的过程中, 他们却也受益最少, 但在将来的数十年, 他们的担子会最重。
processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式); burdened:adj.(受…)困扰的; v.(使)担负; (burden的过去分词和过去式)
A new politics would make the matter of managing that burden, where it falls and how heavily, the top priority of our time. 新政治 会让管理那些重担的问题, 比如重担落在哪里、有多重, 成为我们这个时代的 最优先处理议题。
priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事;
No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life. 不论我们怎么做,气候变迁都会改变现代生活。
No matter what:不管什么…; transform:v.使改变;使改观;使转换;n.[数]变换式;[化]反式;
Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable , which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too. 有些暖化已经发生,无可避免, 那就表示,可能也会 有一些额外的苦难。
baked:v.烘烤;焙;烤硬;灼热;(bake的过去分词和过去式) inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的; additional:adj.附加的,额外的;
And even if we take dramatic action and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios, it would mean living on an entirely different planet. 即使我们采取大动作, 并避免一些很骇人的最糟情况, 那就表示居住在一个 完全不同的星球上。
dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; worst-case:adj.作最坏打算的;最糟情况的;
With a new politics, a new economics, a new relationship to technology and a new relationship to nature -- a whole new world. 有着新政治、新经济、 和科技的新关系, 以及和大自然的新关系—— 全新的世界。
But a relatively livable one. 但,相对是比较宜居的世界。
livable:adj.适于居住的;生活过得有价值的;
Relatively prosperous . 相对比较繁榮。
prosperous:adj.繁荣的;兴旺的;
And green. 且比较绿。
Why not choose that one? 为什么不选那个世界？
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）