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DavidTitley_2017-_军方如何对抗气候变迁_
So I'd like to tell you a story about climate and change, but it's really a story about people and not polar bears. 我想要告诉各位一个 关于气候和变迁的故事, 但它其实是一个关于 人的故事,而非北极熊。
polar:adj.极地的;南极(或北极)的;n.极线;极面;
So this is our house that we lived in in the mid-2000s. 这是我们在 2000 年代中期 所居住的房子。
I was the chief operating officer for the Navy's weather and ocean service. 我是海军气象与海洋局营运长。
It happened to be down at a place called Stennis Space Center right on the Gulf Coast, so we lived in a little town called Waveland, Mississippi, nice modest house, and as you can see , it's up against a storm surge . 它刚好是在一个叫做 斯坦尼斯航天中心的地方, 就在墨西哥湾沿岸地区, 所以我们住在一个小镇, 密西西比的威佛兰, 如你们所见,它面对风暴潮。
Gulf:n.海湾;深渊;分歧;漩涡;vt.吞没; modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的; as you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的; surge:n.汹涌;大浪,波涛;汹涌澎湃;巨涌;v.汹涌;起大浪,蜂拥而来;
Now, if you ever wonder what a 30-foot or nine-meter storm surge does coming up your street, let me show you. 如果你曾纳闷过, 三十英呎或九公尺高的 风暴潮打到街上时, 会造成什么状况, 让我呈现给你们看。
Same house. 同一间房子。
That's me, kind of wondering what's next. 那是我,有点搞不清楚 接下来会发生什么。
But when we say we lost our house -- this is, like, right after Katrina -- so the house is either all the way up there in the railway tracks , or it's somewhere down there in the Gulf of Mexico, and to this day , we really, we lost our house. 我们说我们的房子不见了 ──那是在卡崔娜颶风之后── 房子要不是一路跑到铁轨那一头, 就是到了墨西哥湾那一头, 至今,我们的房子真的不见了。
tracks:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;(track的第三人称单数和复数) to this day:至今;
We don't know where it is. 我们不知道它在哪里。
(Laughter) （笑声）
You know, it's gone. 你们知道的,它不见了。
So I don't show this for pity, because in many ways, we were the luckiest people on the Gulf Coast. 我呈现这些的目的不是要索取同情, 因为从许多方面看,
One of the things is, we had insurance , and that idea of insurance is probably pretty important there. 其中一件幸运的事是,我们有保险, 在这里,保险是相当重要的。
insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的;
But does this scale up, you know, what happened here? 这里发生的事是否会再扩大？
scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
And I think it kind of does, because as you've heard, as the sea levels come up, it takes weaker and weaker storms to do something like this. 而我认为还会再扩大, 因为如你们已经听到过的, 随着海平面上升, 不用多强的风暴, 就可以造成这样的破坏了。
So let's just step back for a second and kind of look at this. 我们先退后一步,来看看这个现象。
And, you know, climate's really complicated , a lot of moving parts in this, but I kind of put it about it's all about the water. 气候是很复杂的, 当中有许多持续在动的部分, 但我觉得可以说,一切都和水有关。
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
See, see those three blue dots there down on the lower part? 看到下半部有三个蓝点了吗？
The one you can easily see, that's all the water in the world. 很容易看见的那个蓝点, 表示全世界所有的水。
Those two smaller dots, those are the fresh water. 两个比较小的点,它们表示淡水。
And it turns out that as the climate changes, the distribution of that water is changing very fundamentally . 结果发现,随着气候变迁, 水的分布也有根本上的改变。
distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销; fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地
So now we have too much, too little, wrong place, wrong time. 现在我们看到太多水、 太少水、不对的地方、不对的时间。
It's salty where it should be fresh; it's liquid where it should be frozen; it's wet where it should be dry; and in fact, the very chemistry of the ocean itself is changing. 该是淡水的地方有盐, 在水该是液态的地方水却结冰了; 该干燥的地方却是湿的; 事实上,连海洋本身的 化学性质也在改变。
And what that does from a security or a military part is it does three things: it changes the very operating environment that we're working in, it threatens our bases, 它对于安全或是军方的影响, 包括下列三项: 它改变了我们工作的作業环境, 它威胁我们的基地,
military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
and then it has geostrategic risks, which sounds kind of fancy and I'll explain what I mean by that in a second . 且还有地缘战略的风险, 这听起来挺炫的, 我等一下就会解释它的意思。
geostrategic:adj.地缘政治学的; fancy:n.幻想; adj.想象的; v.想象; in a second:立刻,很快;
So let's go to just a couple examples here. 我们先来看几个例子。
And we'll start off with what we all know is of course a political and humanitarian catastrophe that is Syria . 我们先从大家都知道的开始, 当然,就是政治和人道主义的灾难, 也就是叙利亚。
humanitarian:adj.人道主义的;博爱的;基督凡人论的;n.人道主义者;基督凡人论者; catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败; Syria:n.叙利亚共和国;
And it turns out that climate was one of the causes in a long chain of events. 结果发现,气候是一系列 连锁事件的成因之一。
It actually started back in the 1970s. 其实,一切是从 1970 年代开始的。
When Assad took control over Syria, he decided he wanted to be self-sufficient in things like wheat and barley . 阿萨德接管了叙利亚, 在小麦和大麦方面, 他决定要做到自给自足。
self-sufficient:adj.自给自足的;极为自负的;过于自信的; barley:n.大麦;
Now, you would like to think that there was somebody in Assad's office that said, "Hey boss, you know, we're in the eastern Mediterranean , kind of dry here, maybe not the best idea." 你会希望, 在阿萨德的办公室中有个人说: 「嘿,老板,你知道吗, 我们在东地中海, 这里有点干燥, 这也许不是最好的点子。」
eastern:adj.东方的;向东的;东部的;东方国家的;n.东方人;东正教信徒; Mediterranean:n.地中海;adj.地中海的;
But I think what happened was, "Boss, you are a smart, powerful and handsome man. We'll get right on it." 但我认为,真正的状况的是: 「老板,你是个很聪明、有影响力、 英俊的人。我们马上去办。」
And they did. 他们就做了。
So by the '90s, believe it or not, they were actually self-sufficient in food, but they did it at a great cost. 所以,到了 1990 年代, 他们在食物方面确实做到自给自足, 但他们这么做的代价很大。
They did it at a cost of their aquifers , they did it at a cost of their surface water. 代价是他们的地下蓄水层, 牺牲了他们的地表水。
aquifers:[地质]含水层;
And of course, there are many nonclimate issues that also contributed to Syria. 当然,有许多非气候的议题, 也影响着叙利亚。
nonclimate:用法,发音,音标,搭配,同义词,反义词和例句等在线英语服务。; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词)
There was the Iraq War, and as you can see by that lower blue line there, over a million refugees come into the cities. 有伊拉克战争, 你们可以看看下方的蓝线, 有超过一百万难民来到城市。
refugees:n.避难者;逃亡者;难民;(refugee的复数)
And then about a decade ago, there's this tremendous heat wave and drought -- fingerprints all over that show, yes, this is in fact related to the changing climate -- 接着,大约十年前, 发生了惊人的热浪和干旱── 这些状况上面全是兇手的指纹, 是的,事实上, 这和气候变迁有关──
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; drought:n.干旱;缺乏; fingerprints:n.[法][特医]指纹(fingerprint的复数); v.取…的指印(fingerprint的三单形式);
has put another three quarters of a million farmers into those same cities. 让一百万农夫的四分之三 也都进入这些城市中。
three quarters:adj.四分之三的;n.四分之三;
Why? Because they had nothing. 为什么？因为他们一无所有。
They had dust. They had dirt . They had nothing. 他们只有尘土、泥土。 他们一无所有。
dirt:n.污垢;尘土;下流话;
So now they're in the cities, the Iraqis are in the cities, it's Assad, it's not like he's taking care of his people, and all of a sudden we have just this huge issue here of massive instability and a breeding ground for extremism . 所以,现在他们在城市中, 伊拉克人在城市中, 总统是阿萨德, 他并不是会照顾人民的人, 突然间,我们就有了这个巨大议题, 这个议题就是极度的不稳定性 以及极端主义的滋生地。
Iraqis:adj.伊拉克的;伊拉克人的;n.伊拉克人; all of a sudden:突然地,出乎意料地; massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; instability:n.不稳定(性);基础薄弱;不安定; breeding ground:n.(野生动物的)繁殖地;(尤指坏事物的)滋生地; extremism:n.极端主义(尤指政治上的极右或极左);极端性;过激主义;
And this is why in the security community we call climate change a risk to instability. 这就是为什么在安全共同体中, 我们会把气候变迁 称为不稳定性的风险。
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
It accelerates instability here. 在这里,它会加速不稳定性。
accelerates:vt.使…加快;使…增速;vi.加速;促进;增加;
In plain English, it makes bad places worse. 用白话英文来说, 它会让不好的地方变更糟。
So let's go to another place here. 我们再来看看另一个地方。
Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers, or about 1,200 miles, north of Oslo, only 600 miles from the Pole , and this is arguably the most strategic island you've never heard of. 我们要再走 2000 公里 或约 1200 英哩,到北奥斯陆, 离北极只有 600 英哩, 这可以说是 你从来没有听过, 却最具战略性的岛屿。
Pole:n.磁极;电极;柱子;杆子;v.用篙撑船;摆船; arguably:v.可论证地;
It's a place called Svalbard. 这个地方叫做斯瓦巴。
It sits astride the sea lanes that the Russian Northern Fleet needs to get out and go into warmer waters. 它横跨各个海上航路, 俄国的北方舰队需要从这些航路出去
astride:v.跨着; adj.跨着的; prep.跨在…上; lanes:n.线路,跑道(lane复数形式); Fleet:n.舰队; v.浅; v.掠过; adj.跑得快的;
It is also, by virtue of its geography, a place where you can control every single polar orbiting satellite on every orbit. 此外,因为这个地方的地势, 从这里,你能控制在每条轨道上 环绕的每一颗绕极轨道卫星。
by virtue of:由于,凭借; orbiting:v.[航][天]轨道运行;轨道运动;转圈(orbit的ing形式);
It is the strategic high ground of space. 它是太空的策略性高地。
high ground:n.有利条件;
Climate change has greatly reduced the sea ice around here, greatly increasing human activity, and it's becoming a flashpoint , and in fact the NATO Parliamentary Assembly is going to meet here on Svalbard next month. 气候变迁大大减少了这里的海冰, 大大增加了人类活动, 它变成了一触即发的爆发点, 事实上,北大西洋公约组织议会大会 下个月将会在斯瓦巴这里开会。
greatly:adv.很,大大地;非常; flashpoint:n.闪点;闪点行动; NATO:abbr.(=theNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization)[组]北约; Parliamentary:adj.议会的;国会的;议会制度的; Assembly:n.装配;集会,集合;
The Russians are very, very unhappy about that. 俄国人对此非常不高兴。
So if you want to find a flashpoint in the Arctic , look at Svalbard there. 如果你想要在北极圈找一个爆发点, 那就是斯瓦巴了。
Arctic:adj.北极的;北极地区的;极冷的;严寒的;n.北极;北极地区;
Now, in the military, we have known for decades, if not centuries, that the time to prepare, whether it's for a hurricane , a typhoon or strategic changes, is before they hit you, and Admiral Nimitz was right there. 在军中, 数百年或至少数十年来,我们都知道 面对不论是颶风、 台风,或策略改变,做准备的时间点 是在它来袭之前。 尼米兹将军就在那里。
hurricane:n.飓风,暴风; Admiral:n.海军上将;舰队司令;旗舰;
That is the time to prepare. 那就是做准备的时间点。
Fortunately , our Secretary of Defense, 幸运的是,我们的国防部长,
Fortunately:adv.幸运地;
Secretary Mattis, he understands that as well, and what he understands is that climate is a risk. 马提斯部长,他也了解这一点, 他了解的是,气候是一项风险。
He has said so in his written responses to Congress , and he says, "As Secretary of Defense, it's my job to manage such risks." 他在给国会的 书面回应中提到这一点, 他写说:「身为国防部长, 我的工作就是要管理这类风险。」
responses:n.回答,答复;反应;响应;(response的复数) Congress:n.国会;代表大会;会议;社交;
It's not only the US military that understands this. 不只有美国军方了解这一点。
Many of our friends and allies in other navies and other militaries have very clear-eyed views about the climate risk. 我们在其他海军及军队中的 许多朋友和盟友 对于气候风险有着非常清晰的了解。
allies:n.盟友,支持者:v.与…结盟(ally的第三人称单数和复数) navies:n.海军;深蓝色的; militaries:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人; clear-eyed:adj.头脑清晰的;视力良好的;有洞察力的;
And in fact, in 2014, I was honored to speak for a half-a-day seminar at the International Seapower Symposium to 70 heads of navies about this issue. 事实上,2014 年, 我有榮幸在为期半天的 国际海权研讨会上演说, 与七十位海军将领谈论这个议题。
speak for:要求得到;代表…讲话; seminar:n.讨论会,研讨班; Symposium:n.讨论会,座谈会;专题论文集;酒宴,宴会;
So Winston Churchill is alleged to have said, 据说邱吉尔说过,
Churchill:n.邱吉尔(英国政治家及作家); alleged:adj.宣称的;涉嫌的;v.断言,指称,声称;(allege的过去分词和过去式)
I'm not sure if he said anything, but he's alleged to have said that Americans can always be counted upon to do the right thing after exhausting every other possibility. 我不确定他说过什么, 但据说他说过, 永远可以仰赖美国人, 相信他们会做对的事, 如果所有其他可能性都已用尽的话。
exhausting:adj.使人精疲力竭的;v.耗尽;使筋疲力尽;(exhaust的现在分词)
(Laughter) （笑声）
So I would argue we're still in the process of exhausting every other possibility, but I do think we will prevail . 我会争辩说,我们还在努力用尽 所有其他可能性的过程当中, 但我确实认为我们会获胜。
in the process of:在…的过程中; prevail:v.流行;盛行;战胜;压倒;
But I need your help. 但我需要你们协助。
This is my ask. 这是我的请愿。
I ask not that you take your recycling out on Wednesday, but that you engage with every business leader, every technology leader, every government leader, and ask them, "Ma'am, sir, what are you doing to stabilize the climate?" 我请求的不是你们要在 星期三把回收物拿出来回收, 而是要你们去接触每一位企業领导者、 每一位科技领导者、 每一位政府领导者, 并问他们:「女士／先生, 你做了什么事来稳定气候？」
recycling:n.(资源,垃圾的)回收利用;v.回收;再循环利用(recycle的现在分词); engage:v.吸引,占用;使参加;雇佣;使订婚;预定; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; stabilize:vt.使稳固,使安定;vi.稳定,安定;
It's just that simple. 就这么简单。
Because when enough people care enough, the politicians , most of whom won't lead on this issue -- but they will be led -- that will change this. 因为,当足够的人有足够的在乎, 在这个议题上,虽然 大部分政客不会带头── 但他们会被引领── 那就能改变这状况。
politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数)
Because I can tell you, the ice doesn't care. 因为我能告诉各位,冰并不在乎。
The ice doesn't care who's in the White House . 冰并不在乎谁坐镇白宫。
White House:n.白宫(美国总统官邸,位于首都华盛顿);
It doesn't care which party controls your congress. 冰并不在乎哪个党派控制你的国会。
It doesn't care which party controls your parliament. 冰并不在乎哪个党派控制你的议会。
It just melts . 它就是会融化。
melts:n.[冶]熔体(melt的复数);v.熔化(melt的第三人称单数形式);
Thank you very much. 非常谢谢你们。
(Applause) （掌声）