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DavidEpstein_2020X-_过早的实现术业专攻并不一定意味着事业成功_-
So, I'd like to talk about the development of human potential , and I'd like to start with maybe the most impactful modern story of development. 我想谈一谈人的潜能发展, 就从可能是最有影响力的 现代发展故事开始说起吧 。
Many of you here have probably heard of the 10,000 hours rule. 大家都应该听说过“一万小时定律”,
Maybe you even model your own life after it. 或许你的生活也遵循此道。
Basically , it's the idea that to become great in anything, it takes 10,000 hours of focused practice, so you'd better get started as early as possible. 其基本观点就是, 想在任何方面变得优秀, 需要花费上万小时刻意练习, 因此行动越早越好。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; impactful:adj.有效的;有力的; Basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
The poster child for this story is Tiger Woods. 该理论的典型代表 就是老虎·伍兹。
His father famously gave him a putter when he was seven months old. 尽人皆知,他 7 个月大时, 父亲给了他一根推杆。
At 10 months, he started imitating his father's swing. 10 个月时, 他开始模仿父亲挥杆。
At two, you can go on YouTube and see him on national television. 他 2 岁时的视频已经可以 在油管（YouTube）和全国电视上找到。
poster child:n.(为慈善等目的)出现在海报上的儿童;代表人物;典型; famously:adv.著名地;极好地; putter:n.推棒;置放者;新进的矿工;vt.混过;vi.闲荡;行为懒散; imitating:v.模仿;仿效;冒充;(imitate的现在分词)
Fast-forward to the age of 21, he's the greatest golfer in the world. 快进到 21 岁, 他已是全世界 最优秀的高尔夫球手了,
Quintessential 10,000 hours story. 典型的一万小时故事。
Another that features in a number of bestselling books is that of the three Polgar sisters, whose father decided to teach them chess in a very technical manner from a very early age. 另一个被写进 众多畅销书中的典范, 就是波尔加三姐妹的故事。 他们的父亲决定在她们很小的时候, 就用职业训练的方式 教她们下国际象棋。
Fast-forward:n.快进功能;adj.进展迅速的;vi.快进;vt.使快进; golfer:n.高尔夫球手; Quintessential:adj.精髓的,精萃的; bestselling:adj.畅销的; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
And, really, he wanted to show that with a head start in focused practice, any child could become a genius in anything. 事实上,他是想证明 抢先起跑、刻意练习, 所有孩子都能成为 任何领域的天才。
And in fact, two of his daughters went on to become Grandmaster chess players. 而实际上, 他的两个女儿确实都成为了 国际象棋大师。
So when I became the science writer at "Sports Illustrated " magazine, 所以当我成为 《体育画报》的科普作家时,
I got curious . 我不禁感到好奇,
head start:领先;抢先起步的优势;有利的开端; genius:n.天才;天资;才能,本领; Grandmaster:n.大师;最高段的棋手; Illustrated:v.加插图于;给(书等)做图表;说明,解释;(illustrate的过去分词和过去式) curious:adj.好奇的,有求知欲的;古怪的;爱挑剔的;
If this 10,000 hours rule is correct, then we should see that elite athletes get a head start in so-called " deliberate practice." 如果这个一万小时定律没错, 那我们就应该看到那些优秀运动员 通过所谓的“刻意练习”, 获得领先位置。
This is coached, error-correction-focused practice, not just playing around. 是有教练指导,聚焦于纠错的练习, 并不只是随便玩玩。
And in fact, when scientists study elite athletes, they see that they spend more time in deliberate practice -- not a big surprise. 事实上,科学家在研究运动员时, 发现这些运动员 把更多时间花在了刻意练习上, 这并不令人意外。
elite:n.精英;精华;杰出人物; athletes:n.运动员;身强体健的人(athlete的复数形式); so-called:adj.所谓的;号称的; deliberate:v.深思熟虑;仔细考虑;反复思考;adj.故意的;蓄意的;存心的;不慌不忙的;
When they actually track athletes over the course of their development, the pattern looks like this: the future elites actually spend less time early on in deliberate practice in their eventual sport. 当他们追踪运动员的 职业发展历程时, 他们的模式是这样的: 未来的骄子们 在他们最终的运动项目早期 花在有意识的 练习上的时间反而更少。
They tend to have what scientists call a "sampling period," 他们通常都经历了 一个科学家所谓的“试水期”。
where they try a variety of physical activities, they gain broad, general skills, they learn about their interests and abilities and delay specializing until later than peers who plateau at lower levels. 在此期间, 他们会尝试各种体育运动, 从中获取广泛、通用的技能, 并从中发现自己的兴趣和能力, 与在较低水平就遭遇瓶颈同龄人相比, 他们把术业专攻的时间推迟得更晚。
elites:n.精英(elite的复数); eventual:adj.最后的,结果的;可能的;终于的; variety:n.多样;种类;杂耍;变化,多样化; physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查; specializing:n.专攻;v.使专门化(specialize的现在分词); peers:n.平辈,同事(peer的复数);v.凝视;比得上(peer的三单形式); plateau:n.高原; n.[地名][肯尼亚,美国]普拉托; n.(活动或进程中的)稳定阶段,停滞时期; adj.高原印第安人的;
And so when I saw that, I said, "Gosh, that doesn't really comport with the 10,000 hours rule, does it?" 当我看到这个情况时说: “天啊！这可不符合 一万小时定律啊！”
So I started to wonder about other domains that we associate with obligatory , early specialization , like music. 因此我开始对其他领域, 那些强制性提早进入 专业化训练的领域感到好奇, 诸如音乐,
Turns out the pattern's often similar. 结果发现它们的模式大多相似。
comport:vt.行为;举动;vi.相称;适合;一致; domains:n.域,域名;领域;网域(domain的复数形式); associate with:v.联合;与…联系在一起;和…来往; obligatory:adj.义务的;必须的;义不容辞的; specialization:n.专门化;特殊化;特化作用;
This is research from a world-class music academy , and what I want to draw your attention to is this: the exceptional musicians didn't start spending more time in deliberate practice than the average musicians until their third instrument . 这项研究来自于 一所顶级的音乐学院, 我想让大家关注的是: 相比一般的音乐家,那些杰出的音乐家并没有 花更多时间在刻意练习上, 而是会尝试到第三样乐器, 而是会尝试到第三样乐器,
They, too, tended to have a sampling period, even musicians we think of as famously precocious , like Yo-Yo Ma. 当然,他们也有那一段“试水期”。 即便我们能想到的 像马友友那样早慧的 音乐家,
He had a sampling period, he just went through it more rapidly than most musicians do. 他也有一个“试水期”, 只不过相比大多数音乐家, 他的“试水期”更短而已。
world-class:n.世界级;adj.世界级的; academy:n.学院;研究院;学会;专科院校; exceptional:adj.异常的,例外的;n.超常的学生; instrument:n.仪器;工具;乐器;手段;器械; precocious:adj.早熟的;过早发育的; Yo-Yo:悠悠球(圆形玩具,抖动细绳时能上下移动)
Nonetheless , this research is almost entirely ignored , and much more impactful is the first page of the book "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother," 即便如此,这项研究 却几乎被完全忽略了, 取而代之更具影响力的是 《虎妈的战歌》这本书的首页,
where the author recounts assigning her daughter violin. 作者讲述了强制安排 女儿学小提琴的故事。
Nobody seems to remember the part later in the book where her daughter turns to her and says, "You picked it, not me," 似乎无人记得书中后面的部分, 她女儿说: “学琴是你选的,不是我,”
Nonetheless:adv.尽管如此,但是; ignored:v.忽视;对…不予理会;佯装未见;不予理睬;(ignore的过去分词和过去式) Hymn:n.赞美诗;圣歌;欢乐的歌;vt.唱赞美歌;vi.唱赞歌; recounts:vt.叙述;重新计算;n.重算; assigning:v.分派;设定(assign的ing形式);
and largely quits . 所以在体育和音乐方面, 了解到这类出人意料的情况后,
So having seen this sort of surprising pattern in sports and music, 所以在体育和音乐方面, 了解到这类出人意料的情况后,
I started to wonder about domains that affect even more people, like education. 我开始对其他能影响 更多人的领域充满好奇, 诸如教育领域。
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; quits:v.离开;离任;戒掉;(quit的第三人称单数)
An economist found a natural experiment in the higher-ed systems of England and Scotland. 一位经济学家在英格兰 和苏格兰的高等教育体系里 发现了一个自然实验。
In the period he studied, the systems were very similar, except in England, students had to specialize in their mid-teen years to pick a specific course of study to apply to, 在他开展研究期间, 这两个体系十分相似, 除了在英格兰, 学生需要在十几岁时 选择一门专业学科进行专攻,
whereas in Scotland, they could keep trying things in the university if they wanted to. 而在苏格兰,如果他们愿意, 这个经济学家提出的问题是:
And his question was: 这个经济学家提出的问题是:
Who wins the trade-off , the early or the late specializers? 谁是最后赢家, 先来者,还是后到者？
specialize in:专门研究…; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求; whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; trade-off:n.交换,交易;权衡;协定;
And what he saw was that the early specializers jump out to an income lead because they have more domain-specific skills. 经济学家发现, 那些专攻者会在收入上领先, 因为他们拥有更多 专业领域的能力。
The late specializers get to try more different things, and when they do pick, they have better fit, or what economists call "match quality." 而那些晚专攻者 可以做更多不同尝试, 一旦做出了选择, 匹配度也会更高, 用经济学家的话来说, 就是“匹配质量”更好。
domain-specific:特定领域;
And so their growth rates are faster. 因此他们的收入增长更快,
By six years out, they erase that income gap . 六年之后, 这种收入差距被抹平。
Meanwhile , the early specializers start quitting their career tracks in much higher numbers, essentially because they were made to choose so early that they more often made poor choices. 与此同时,更多早期专攻者 开始退出原定的职业路线, 究其根源,是因为 他们太早被迫做出选择, 通常他们的选择并不明智。
erase:vt.抹去;擦除;vi.被擦去,被抹掉; gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; Meanwhile:adv.同时,其间;n.其间,其时; quitting:v.离开;离任;离校;停止;戒掉;(quit的现在分词) career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; tracks:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;(track的第三人称单数和复数) essentially:adv.本质上;本来;
So the late specializers lose in the short term and win in the long run . 所以,虽然晚专攻者 短期来看处于落后地位, 却赢在长期发展。
I think if we thought about career choice like dating, we might not pressure people to settle down quite so quickly. 如果我们把选择职业看作约会, 就不会逼对方尽快安定下来。
So this got me interested, seeing this pattern again, in exploring the developmental backgrounds of people whose work I had long admired, like Duke Ellington, who shunned music lessons as a kid to focus on baseball and painting and drawing. 再次看到这种模式 让我非常好奇, 想探究那些人的发展背景—— 他们的工作我向来羡慕不已, 像艾灵顿公爵（Duke Ellington, 美国黑人音乐家）,他小时候曾逃掉音乐课, 去专心练习棒球、油画和绘画。
in the long run:长远;终究; settle:v.定居;结算;停留;确定;n.高背长椅(老式木家具,有扶手,座下多带柜); exploring:v.探索:考察:探查;(explore的现在分词) developmental:adj.发展的;启发的; Duke:n.公爵,(公国的)君主;公爵(种)樱桃; shunned:v.避开;回避;避免;(shun的过去分词和过去式)
Or Maryam Mirzakhani, who wasn't interested in math as a girl -- dreamed of becoming a novelist -- and went on to become the first and so far only woman to win the Fields Medal, the most prestigious prize in the world in math. 或者像玛丽安·米尔札哈尼 （Maryam Mirzakhani）, 但她最终成为了第一个, 也是迄今为止唯一一个 但她最终成为了第一个, 也是迄今为止唯一一个 获得“菲尔兹奖”的女性, 这是数学界最有声望的奖项。
Or Vincent Van Gogh had five different careers , each of which he deemed his true calling before flaming out spectacularly , and in his late 20s, picked up a book called "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing." 又或是梵高,曾从事过 5 种不同的职业—— 每一个都曾被他认为是 真正的使命,却都辉煌的幻灭了—— 而在年近三十的时候, 他拿起了一本《绘画入门指南 》,
novelist:n.小说家; prestigious:adj.有名望的;享有声望的; Vincent:n.模锻摩擦压力机; Van:n.厢式货车;客货车;v.选矿;用车搬运; careers:n.职业(career的复数);事业;职业生涯;v.全速前进(career的三单形式); deemed:v.认为;视为;相信;(deem的过去分词和过去式) spectacularly:adv.壮观地;引人注目地;
That worked out OK. 结果一发不可收拾。
Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer at the University of Michigan who took a philosophy course just to fulfill a requirement, and in it, he learned about a near-century-old system of logic 克劳德·香农（Claude Shannon ） 曾就读于密歇根大学的电力工程专业, 选修哲学只是为了满足学分要求。 在课程中,他了解了 有近百年历史的逻辑体系,
by which true and false statements could be coded as ones and zeros and solved like math problems. 其中真假陈述被编码为 1 和 0 , 被当作数学问题一样解答。
This led to the development of binary code, which underlies all of our digital computers today. 于是,这一发现促进了 二进位码的发展, 奠定了今天所有数字计算机的基础。
electrical:adj.有关电的;电气科学的; Michigan:n.密歇根;美国密歇根州; philosophy:n.哲学;哲理;人生观; fulfill:v.执行,贯彻;完成,实现;兑现;达到;起到; logic:n.逻辑;逻辑学;逻辑性;adj.逻辑的; statements:n.说明; v.(英国)对儿童进行特殊教育评估认定; (statement的第三人称单数和复数) coded:adj.[计]编码的;电码的;译成电码的;v.译成密码(code的过去式和过去分词); binary:adj.[数]二进制的;二元的,二态的; underlies:vt.成为…的基础;位于…之下; digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键;
Finally , my own sort of role model , Frances Hesselbein -- this is me with her -- she took her first professional job at the age of 54 and went on to become the CEO of the Girl Scouts , which she saved. 最后,我的榜样 弗朗西斯·赫塞尔本 （Frances Hesselbein）—— 这是我们的合照—— 她在 54 岁时才开始从事 第一份专职工作, 并成为女童子军 （Girl Scouts）的首席执行官, 而正是她拯救了这个机构。
She tripled minority membership , added 130,000 volunteers , and this is one of the proficiency badges that came out of her tenure -- it's binary code for girls learning about computers. 她使少数族裔成员人数 增加了两倍, 新招募了 13 万名志愿者, 这是她任职期间 颁发的精通奖章之一—— 是奖励学习电脑的 女孩的二进位码。
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; role model:n.榜样;崇拜对象; professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员; Scouts:n.童子军,童军(scout的复数);侦察兵;v.侦察;搜索(scout的三单形式); tripled:adj.三倍的;三方的;n.三倍数;三个一组;vi.增至三倍;vt.使成三倍; minority:n.少数民族;少数派;未成年;adj.少数的;属于少数派的; membership:n.成员资格;(统称)会员;会员人数; volunteers:n.志愿者; v.自愿做; (volunteer的第三人称单数和复数) proficiency:n.精通,熟练; badges:n.[轻]徽章(badge的复数);v.以…为标志;授予…奖章(badge的三单形式); tenure:n.任期;占有;vt.授予…终身职位;
Today, Frances runs a leadership institute where she works every weekday, in Manhattan. 现在,弗朗西斯经营着 一家领导力培训机构, 工作日在曼哈顿上班。
And she's only 104, so who knows what's next. 她只有 104 岁, 谁知道她接下来还会干什么。
(Laughter) （笑声）
We never really hear developmental stories like this, do we? 我们几乎从来不会听到 这样的成长故事,对吧？
We don't hear about the research that found that Nobel laureate scientists are 22 times more likely to have a hobby outside of work as are typical scientists. 我们很难听到研究报告指出, 获得诺贝尔奖的科学家, 有一项业余爱好的可能性 比普通科学家高出 22 倍——[05:25]
institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院; laureate:adj.戴桂冠的;荣誉的;n.桂冠诗人;得奖者;vt.使戴桂冠; typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的;
We never hear that. 从未听说过。
Even when the performers or the work is very famous, we don't hear these developmental stories. 即便表演者声名显赫, 作品成绩斐然, 我们也很难听到他们的成长故事。
For example, here's an athlete I've followed. 例如,这是一位我所关注的运动员。
Here he is at age six, wearing a Scottish rugby kit . 这是他 6 岁时穿着 苏格兰橄榄球球服的照片,
He tried some tennis, some skiing, wrestling . 他尝试过网球、滑雪、摔跤。
His mother was actually a tennis coach but she declined to coach him because he wouldn't return balls normally . 他母亲是个网球教练, 但拒绝训练他, 因为他通常都不回球。
He did some basketball, table tennis , swimming. 他也尝试了篮球、乒乓球、游泳,
rugby:n.英式橄榄球;拉格比(英格兰中部的城市); kit:v.装备;n.成套工具;配套元件;成套设备;全套衣服及装备; wrestling:n.摔跤运动;v.摔跤;奋力对付;全力解决;(wrestle的现在分词) declined:v.减少;下降;衰弱;婉言拒绝;(decline的过去分词和过去式) normally:adv.正常地;通常地,一般地; table tennis:乒乓球
When his coaches wanted to move him up a level to play with older boys, he declined, because he just wanted to talk about pro wrestling after practice with his friends. 当他的教练想让他再进一级, 和年纪更大点的男孩 一同训练时, 他表示拒绝,因为他只想 在和朋友训练结束之后 讨论一下职业摔跤。
And he kept trying more sports: handball , volleyball, soccer, badminton, skateboarding ... 他还继续尝试了 更多的体育项目: 手球、排球、足球、 羽毛球、滑板......
So, who is this dabbler ? 那么,这个浅尝者究竟是谁？
This is Roger Federer. 他就是罗杰·费德勒 （Roger Federer）。
Every bit as famous as an adult as Tiger Woods, and yet even tennis enthusiasts don't usually know anything about his developmental story. 成年后的他和老虎·伍兹 一样大名鼎鼎, 而即便是网球爱好者, 对他的成长故事也一无所知。
handball:n.手球,手球运动; skateboarding:n.滑板运动; dabbler:n.戏水者;业余家;浅尝者; Roger:n.罗杰;[男名]男子名;int.明白;v.与某人性交; enthusiasts:热心人;热衷者;狂热者(enthusiast的复数);
Why is that, even though it's the norm? 即便这是常态, 但背后的原因是什么呢？
I think it's partly because the Tiger story is very dramatic , but also because it seems like this tidy narrative that we can extrapolate to anything that we want to be good at in our own lives. 个人认为,部分原因是 老虎的故事极富戏剧性, 但也因为通过这个 看似顺理成章的叙事, 我们可以推断出任何 我们想要在自己的生活中 做得更好的事情。
But that, I think, is a problem, because it turns out that in many ways, golf is a uniquely horrible model of almost everything that humans want to learn. 但我认为, 这其中存在一个问题, 因为我们发现,在很多方面, 高尔夫都是一种独特、糟糕的模式, 几乎概括了所有人们想要学的东西。
dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; tidy:adj.整齐的:整洁的:v.使整洁: narrative:n.叙述;故事;讲述;adj.叙事的,叙述的;叙事体的; extrapolate:vt.外推;推断;vi.外推;进行推断; uniquely:adv.独特地;珍奇地; horrible:可怕的,极讨厌的,
(Laughter) （笑声）
Golf is the epitome of what the psychologist Robin Hogarth called a "kind learning environment." 高尔夫 被心理学家罗宾 · 贺加斯 （Robin Hogarth） 称为“友好学习环境”的典型。
Kind learning environments have next steps and goals that are clear, rules that are clear and never change, when you do something, you get feedback that is quick and accurate , work next year will look like work last year. 友好的学习环境有着 清晰的步骤和目标, 以及明确且一成不变的规则, 当你行动时, 能收到及时、准确的反馈, 明年的工作和去年的工作 基本大同小异。
epitome:n.缩影;摘要;象征; psychologist:n.心理学家,心理学者; Robin:知更鸟,罗宾(人名) feedback:n.反馈;反馈意见;回授;[电子]反馈; accurate:adj.精确的;
Chess: also a kind learning environment. 象棋也提供了 一种温和友好的学习环境。
The grand master's advantage is largely based on knowledge of recurring patterns, which is also why it's so easy to automate . 国际象棋特级大师的优势, 很大程度是基于 对反复出现的模式的把握, 这也是象棋可以 轻易自动化的原因。
On the other end of the spectrum are " wicked learning environments," 另一个极端是“恶劣的学习环境”,
where next steps and goals may not be clear. 没有清晰的步骤和目标,
Rules may change. 规则也可能改变。
You may or may not get feedback when you do something. 采取行动,不确定能否得到反馈,[07:10]
advantage:n.有利条件:优势:优点: recurring:v.再发生;反复出现;(recur的现在分词) automate:v.使自动化; spectrum:n.光谱;频谱;范围;余象; wicked:adj.邪恶的;缺德的;调皮的;n.恶人;邪恶的人;
It may be delayed, it may be inaccurate , and work next year may not look like work last year. 反馈可能延误,也许不准确, 明年的工作和去年的工作 也许大不相同。
So which one of these sounds like the world we're increasingly living in? 那么哪一种听起来 更像我们所生活的世界？
In fact, our need to think in an adaptable manner and to keep track of interconnecting parts has fundamentally changed our perception , so that when you look at this diagram, 事实上,我们对 一种与时俱进的思维 和持续追踪交互部分的需求 已经从根本上改变了我们的认知, 所以,但你看到这张图时,
inaccurate:adj.错误的; increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地; adaptable:adj.适合的;能适应的;可修改的; keep track of:记录;与…保持联系; interconnecting:adj.互相连接的;v.使互相连接(interconnect的ing形式); fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 perception:n.感知;知觉;看法;洞察力;
the central circle on the right probably looks larger to you because your brain is drawn to the relationship of the parts in the whole, whereas someone who hasn't been exposed to modern work 右边中央的圆圈可能看起来更大, 因为你的大脑 受到了整体和各部分关系的影响, 相比之下,没有接触现代工作的人,
with its requirement for adaptable, conceptual thought, will see correctly that the central circles are the same size. 会因为缺少现代工作对 适应性、概念性思想的要求, 而正确的判断出 两边中央的圆圈大小相同。
So here we are in the wicked work world, and there, sometimes hyperspecialization can backfire badly. 而目前我们身处的正是 一种复杂多变的工作环境, 有时过度专业化可能会适得其反。
exposed:adj.无遮蔽的; v.暴露; (expose的过去分词和过去式) conceptual:adj.概念上的; backfire:v.适得其反; n.回火; (摩托车的)放气声;
For example, in research in a dozen countries that matched people for their parents' years of education, their test scores, their own years of education, 例如,在一项针对 十多个国家的研究中, 被研究者与其父母受教育的年限, 他们自身的考试成绩 以及教育年限进行匹配。
the difference was some got career-focused education and some got broader, general education. 其中的差别在于, 部分人接受了职业教育, 另一部分接受了 更广泛的通识教育。
The pattern was those who got the career-focused education are more likely to be hired right out of training, more likely to make more money right away , 其中的模式是, 接受职业教育的人, 更有可能在训练结束后 被直接录用, 也更可能立刻赚到更多钱,
but so much less adaptable in a changing work world that they spend so much less time in the workforce overall that they win in the short term and lose in the long run. 而他们在一个不断变化的 就业环境中适应性不强, 在整体人力资本中 投入的时间更少, 便会赢在短期,而输在长期。
right away:立刻; workforce:n.劳动大军;全体员工; overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
Or consider a famous, 20-year study of experts making geopolitical and economic predictions . 再来了解一下 一个耗时 20 年,针对专家们 进行的围绕地缘政治 和经济预测的着名研究。
The worst forecasters were the most specialized experts, those who'd spent their entire careers studying one or two problems and came to see the whole world through one lens or mental model. 最糟的预测者恰恰是 某个领域的专家, 他们耗费毕生精力 研究一到两个课题, 只能以一种视角 或者心智模式看世界。
geopolitical:adj.地理政治学的; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); forecasters:n.预报员; specialized:adj.专业的; v.专门研究(或从事); (specialize的过去式和过去分词) lens:n.透镜,镜头;晶状体;隐形眼镜;汽车的灯玻璃;v.给…摄影;
Some of them actually got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials . 随着他们经验的积累 和资历的提升, 有些人甚至情况更糟。
The best forecasters were simply bright people with wide-ranging interests. 优秀的预测者则是那些 兴趣广博的通达之人。
Now in some domains, like medicine, increasing specialization has been both inevitable and beneficial , no question about it. 当然,在某些领域,诸如医学, 日益提升的专业化技能 不可避免且大有裨益, 这一点是毋庸置疑。
accumulated:v.积累;积聚;(数量)逐渐增加;(accumulate的过去式和过去分词) credentials:n.[管理]证书; v.得到信用; wide-ranging:adj.广泛的; inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的; beneficial:adj.有益的,有利的;可享利益的;
And yet, it's been a double-edged sword. 然而高度专业化 仍是一把双刃剑。
A few years ago, one of the most popular surgeries in the world for knee pain was tested in a placebo-controlled trial. 几年前,有一种 治疗膝盖疼痛的外科手术 与安慰剂对照组试验一同展开,
Some of the patients got " sham surgery ." 一些患者接受了“虚假手术”,
double-edged:adj.双刃的;对双方皆不利的;有双重目的的; surgeries:n.外科手术(surgery复数); patients:n.接受治疗者,病人;(patient的复数) sham:n.伪装;假象;假情假义;伪善;v.假装;冒充;adj.虚假的;假装的; surgery:n.外科;外科手术;手术室;诊疗室;
That means the surgeons make an incision , they bang around like they're doing something, then they sew the patient back up. 也就是说,医生会 （在患者膝盖上）切开一个切口, 接着忙前忙后, 就像在进行手术, 然后将病人的伤口直接缝合。
That performed just as a well. 效果同样很不错。
And yet surgeons who specialize in the procedure continue to do it by the millions. 而专业外科医生 则继续为数百万人 实施了真正的手术。
So if hyperspecialization isn't always the trick in a wicked world, what is? 如果高度专业化并不是 险恶世界的解药,什么才是呢？
surgeons:n.外科医生;(surgeon的复数) incision:n.切口;雕刻,切割;切开; bang:n.猛敲; v.猛敲; v.正好; sew:v.缝;缝制;缝补;做针线活; performed:v.表演;执行;履行;演出;工作,运转(好/不好)(perform的过去分词和过去式) procedure:n.步骤;手术;(商业、法律或政治上的)程序;
That can be difficult to talk about, because it doesn't always look like this path. 这就很难说了, 因为相关途径并不总是清晰明了,
Sometimes it looks like meandering or zigzagging or keeping a broader view. 有时看起来非常迂回曲折, 或需要更广阔的视角。
It can look like getting behind. 看起来可能让人觉得是落后了。
But I want to talk about what some of those tricks might be. 但我想谈谈一些可能的解决方案。
If we look at research on technological innovation , it shows that increasingly, the most impactful patents are not authored by individuals who drill deeper, deeper, deeper into one area of technology as classified by the US Patent Office, but rather by teams that include individuals 如果我们看看技术创新的研究, 会发现越来越多 最有影响力的专利作者 并不是那些在经过 美国专利局分类的技术领域 不断深入探索的研究者, 而是一个个团队,
meandering:adj.曲折的; n.漫步; v.漫步(meander的ing形式); zigzagging:n.之字形运动;锯齿形运动;v.成之字形(zigzag现在分词); technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; patents:n.[专利]专利(patent的复数形式);专利权; individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数); technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; classified:adj.机密的; v.将…分类; (classify的过去分词和过去式)
who have worked across a large number of different technology classes and often merge things from different domains. 这些团队中包括了跨越 大量不同技术类别的个人, 并且经常将来自 不同领域的信息结合在一起。
Someone whose work I've admired who was sort of on the forefront of this is a Japanese man named Gunpei Yokoi. 有一位这个领域的引领者,我很羡慕他的工作, 他的名字叫 横井军平（Gunpei Yokoi）,是个日本人。
Yokoi didn't score well on his electronics exams at school, so he had to settle for a low-tier job as a machine maintenance worker at a playing card company in Kyoto . 横井在学校的电子学考试 成绩并不理想, 所以他不得不退而求其次, 在京都的一个扑克牌公司 做一名底层的机器维护工。
merge:vt.合并;使合并;吞没;vi.合并;融合; forefront:n.最前线,最前部;活动的中心; electronics:n.电子学;电子工业; settle for:满足于; maintenance:n.维护,维修;保持;生活费用; playing card:n.纸牌;扑克牌; Kyoto:n.京都(日本城市);
He realized he wasn't equipped to work on the cutting edge , but that there was so much information easily available that maybe he could combine things that were already well-known in ways that specialists were too narrow to see. 他意识到自己并不具备 在前沿领域工作的能力, 但有太多的可以轻易获取的信息, 也许他可以把那些 众所周知的信息 以专家们看不到的方式结合起来。
So he combined some well-known technology from the calculator industry with some well-known technology from the credit card industry and made handheld games. 他将计算器行业的 某项公开技术 和信用卡行业的 某项公开技术加以整合, 推出了一款掌上游戏机,
And they were a hit. 从而一鸣惊人。
on the cutting edge:处在最前沿的位置; well-known:adj.著名的;众所周知的;清楚明白的; narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分; calculator:n.计算器; credit card:n.[经]信用卡; handheld:adj.掌上型;手持型;
And it turned this playing card company, which was founded in a wooden storefront in the 19th century, into a toy and game operation. 这项发明让这家 成立于 19 世纪, 拥有木质门店的扑克牌公司, 摇身一变成为了 一家玩具和游戏公司。
You may have heard of it; it's called Nintendo . 你们也许都听说过: 它就是任天堂。
Yokoi's creative philosophy translated to " lateral thinking with withered technology," 横井的创意哲学 可以诠释为 “利用旧有技术进行横向思维”,
taking well-known technology and using it in new ways. 即用创新方法使用已知的技术。
wooden:adj.木制的;木头的;木头似的;死板的 storefront:n.[贸易]店面;店头; Nintendo:n.任天堂(日本电子游戏公司及其开发的电脑游戏名称); creative:adj.创造性的; lateral thinking:n.横向思维(即用想象力寻求解决问题的新方法); withered:adj.枯萎的; v.干枯; (wither的过去分词和过去式)
And his magnum opus was this: the Game Boy. 他的代表作就是: 游戏小子（Game Boy）。
Technological joke in every way. 无论从哪个角度听上去 都是个技术笑话。
And it came out at the same time as color competitors from Saga and Atari , and it blew them away, because Yokoi knew what his customers cared about wasn't color. 它和竞争对手萨迦（Saga）和 雅达利（Atari）同时推出了彩色游戏, 最终力压对手, 因为横井知道 他的顾客最关心的 并不是色彩,
magnum opus:n.代表作;杰作; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; Saga:n.传说;冒险故事;英雄事迹; Atari:n.雅达利(美国一家电脑游戏机厂商);
It was durability , portability , affordability , battery life, game selection . 而是耐久性、便携性、 价格、电池寿命, 还有游戏选择。
This is mine that I found in my parents' basement. 这是我当年的游戏机, 在我爸妈的地下室找到的。
(Laughter) （笑声）
It's seen better days. 它见证了掌上游戏机的 辉煌时代。
But you can see the red light is on. 不过我们可以看到, 红灯还能亮起。[11:09]
durability:n.耐久性;坚固;耐用年限; portability:n.[计]可移植性;轻便;可携带性; affordability:n.支付能力;负担能力;可购性; battery:n.[电]电池,蓄电池;n.[法]殴打;n.[军]炮台,炮位; selection:n.选择;选拔;挑选;被挑选的人(或物);
I flipped it on and played some Tetris , which I thought was especially impressive because the batteries had expired in 2007 and 2013. 我开机之后,玩了一会儿 俄罗斯方块, 因为这两套电池在 2007 年 和 2013 年就过期了。
(Laughter)
So this breadth advantage holds in more subjective realms as well. 这种广度优势 也适用于更主观的领域。
In a fascinating study of what leads some comic book creators to be more likely to make blockbuster comics, a pair of researchers found that it was neither the number of years of experience in the field nor the resources of the publisher nor the number of previous comics made. 在一项关于是什么 导致了一些漫画作者 更有可能创作出轰动漫画的 有趣的研究中, 两位研究人员发现, 决定因素既不是 在该领域的多年经验, 也不是出版商的资源, 更不是之前创作的漫画数量,
flipped:v.(使)快速翻转;按(开关);轻掷;(flip的过去分词和过去式) Tetris:n.俄罗斯方块(一种早期的益智游戏); especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; impressive:adj.感人的;令人钦佩的;给人以深刻印象的; batteries:n.电池;炮组;炮列;[法]殴打;(batteries是battery的复数) expired:adj.过期的;v.失效,期满,去世(expire的过去分词和过去式) breadth:n.宽度;(知识、兴趣等)广泛; subjective:adj.主观的;个人的;自觉的; realms:n.领域(realm的复数); fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词) blockbuster:n.轰动;巨型炸弹;一鸣惊人者; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); publisher:n.出版者,出版商;发行人; previous:adj.以前的;早先的;过早的;adv.在先;在…以前;
It was the number of different genres that a creator had worked across. 而是该作者所创作过的 不同类型作品的数量。
And interestingly , a broad individual could not be entirely replaced by a team of specialists. 有趣的是, 一个通才很难被一组专才所替代。
We probably don't make as many of those people as we could because early on, they just look like they're behind and we don't tend to incentivize anything that doesn't look like a head start or specialization. 我们可能没有尽可能多的 去培养这类通才, 因为在早期, 他们只是看起来落后了, 我们也不倾向于 激励任何看起来不像是 前沿技术或专业化的东西。
genres:n.流派(genre的复数);体裁;种类; interestingly:adv.有趣地; incentivize:以物质刺激鼓励;
In fact, I think in the well-meaning drive for a head start, we often even counterproductively short-circuit even the way we learn new material, at a fundamental level. 事实上,我认为出于良好的动机, 为了抢先一步, 我们甚至经常在基础阶段 有意寻求学习新知识的捷径, 结果却适得其反。
In a study last year, seventh-grade math classrooms in the US were randomly assigned to different types of learning. 在去年的一项研究中, 美国一组七年级的数学班级 被随机分配了不同的学习方式。
Some got what's called "blocked practice." 有些进行了所谓的“分组练习”,
well-meaning:adj.善意的;好心的; short-circuit:vt.使短路;缩短;使…不工作;使简短;vi.发生短路; randomly:adv.随便地,任意地;无目的,胡乱地;未加计划地; assigned:v.分配(某物);分派;指定;委派;(assign的过去分词和过去式)
That's like, you get problem type A, 比如只让你解决 A 类问题,
AAAAA, BBBBB, and so on. 然后是 B 类, C 类,等等。
Progress is fast, kids are happy, everything's great. 进展非常顺利, 孩子们也很开心, 一切都井然有序。
Other classrooms got assigned to what's called " interleaved practice." 其他一些班级则被要求 进行所谓的“交错练习”,
That's like if you took all the problem types and threw them in a hat and drew them out at random. 就好比把各种类型的问题 通通丢进一顶帽子, 然后随机抽取进行解答。
Progress is slower, kids are more frustrated . 这种学习方式进展更缓慢, 孩子们也更沮丧。
But instead of learning how to execute procedures , they're learning how to match a strategy to a type of problem. 但是比起学习如何执行程序, 他们正在学习如何把每类问题 与一类应对策略匹配。
interleaved:v.交替; (interleave的过去式); frustrated:adj.失意的,挫败的;泄气的;v.挫败;阻挠;(frustrate的过去式和过去分词) execute:vt.实行;执行;处死; procedures:n.程序;规程(procedure的复数); strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;
And when the test comes around, the interleaved group blew the block practice group away. 在进行测试的时候, “交错练习”小组一举打败了 “分组练习”小组,
It wasn't even close. 而且差距非常明显。
Now, I found a lot of this research deeply counterintuitive , the idea that a head start, whether in picking a career or a course of study or just in learning new material, can sometimes undermine long-term development. 我发现诸多这类研究的结论 都是违反直觉的, 也就是说, 无论是选择一项职业、 一门课程, 还是单纯学习新知识, 抢先一步有时会对 长期发展产生负面影响。
And naturally , I think there are as many ways to succeed as there are people. 自然而然的,我也认为 成功的人就有多少, 成功的途径就有多少。
But I think we tend only to incentivize and encourage the Tiger path, when increasingly, in a wicked world, we need people who travel the Roger path as well. 我们通常更倾向于激励和鼓舞人们 跟随老虎成功的脚步, 然而在竞争激烈的世界中, 我们则需要更多人 选择罗杰式的道路。
counterintuitive:adj.违反直觉的; undermine:vt.破坏,渐渐破坏;挖掘地基; long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; naturally:adv.自然地;自然而然地;轻而易举;天生地;大方地;
Or as the eminent physicist and mathematician and wonderful writer, Freeman Dyson, put it -- and Dyson passed away yesterday, so I hope I'm doing his words honor here -- as he said: for a healthy ecosystem , we need both birds and frogs. 正如杰出的物理学家、数学家, 以及优秀的作家弗里曼·戴森 （Freeman Dyson）所说—— 顺便告知各位, 戴森昨天去世了, 所以我也希望 借此表达对他的敬意—— 正如他所说:对于一个 良好的生态系统,鸟类和蛙类同样重要。
Frogs are down in the mud, seeing all the granular details. 青蛙深入池底, 细枝末节尽收眼底;
The birds are soaring up above not seeing those details but integrating the knowledge of the frogs. 鸟类翱翔云天, 无法触及那些细节, 却能整合青蛙的所知所想。
And we need both. 这两者我们都需要。
eminent:adj.杰出的;有名的;明显的; physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者; mathematician:n.数学家;善作数字计算的人; Freeman:n.自由民;享有市民权的人;荣誉市民; ecosystem:n.生态系统; granular:adj.颗粒的;粒状的; soaring:adj.翱翔的;高耸的;猛增的;v.高耸;高飞;猛增;(soar的现在分词形式) integrating:v.(使)合并,成为一体;(使)加入,融入群体;(integrate的现在分词)
The problem, Dyson said, is that we're telling everyone to become frogs. 戴森说,主要问题是, 我们正在告诉所有人去成为青蛙。
And I think, in a wicked world, that's increasingly shortsighted . 而我认为, 在一个复杂的世界里, 这种做法正在变得 越来越目光短浅。
Thank you very much. 十分感谢。
(Applause) （鼓掌）
shortsighted:adj.目光短浅的;近视的;