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DavidAutor_2016X-_自动化即将让我们失業吗？_
Here's a startling fact: in the 45 years since the introduction of the automated teller machine , those vending machines that dispense cash, the number of human bank tellers employed in the United States has roughly doubled, from about a quarter of a million to a half a million. 有一个惊人的事实: 45年前,自从自动提款机的引进—— 就是那些会吐钞票的贩卖机, 美国银行柜台的从業人数 增加了将近一倍, 从25万人增加到50万人。
startling:adj.惊人的;让人震惊的;极鲜亮的;v.使惊吓;使吓一跳;(startle的现在分词) automated teller machine:un.自动出纳机; vending:v.贩卖,出售;(vend的现在分词) dispense:v.分配;分发;提供;配药; tellers:n.(美)出纳员;讲述者;讲故事者;计票员; employed:v.雇用:应用:运用:使用(employ的过去分词和过去式) United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地;
A quarter of a million in 1970 to about a half a million today, with 100,000 added since the year 2000. 从1970年的25万人成长到今日的50万人, 其中10万人,是2000年以后增加出来的。
These facts, revealed in a recent book by Boston University economist James Bessen, raise an intriguing question: what are all those tellers doing, and why hasn't automation eliminated their employment by now? 这些事实,都详细记载在最近的一本书上, 作者是波斯顿大学的经济学家,詹姆士贝森, 他提出了一个有趣的问题: 那么多的银行柜台人员都在做什么, 为什么自动化服务到现在还没有让他们失業？
revealed:v.揭示;显示;露出;(reveal的过去分词和过去式) Boston:n.波士顿(美国城市); intriguing:adj.有趣的;迷人的;v.引起…的兴趣;策划阴谋;私通;(intrigue的现在分词) automation:n.自动化;自动操作; eliminated:v.排除;清除;消除;(比赛中)淘汰;消灭;(eliminate的过去式和过去分词) employment:n.使用;职业;雇用;
If you think about it, many of the great inventions of the last 200 years were designed to replace human labor. 回想一下, 过去 200 年来的伟大发明, 很多都是为了取代人力的。
Tractors were developed to substitute mechanical power for human physical toil . 拖拉机的发明, 就是为了利用机械的动力取代辛苦的人工劳力。
substitute:v.取代;(以…)代替;n.代用品;代替物;代替者;替补(运动员); mechanical:adj.机械的;力学的;呆板的;无意识的;手工操作的; physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查; toil:n.辛苦;苦工;网;圈套;v.辛苦工作;艰难地行进;
Assembly lines were engineered to replace inconsistent human handiwork with machine perfection . 工厂的组装线, 就是为了利用机械的稳定性, 取代手工的不稳定性。
Assembly:n.装配;集会,集合; inconsistent:adj.不一致的;前后矛盾的; handiwork:n.手工艺;[工经]手工制品;行为后果; perfection:n.完善;完美;
Computers were programmed to swap out error-prone , inconsistent human calculation with digital perfection. 电脑程式化就是为了利用它完美无缺的数位计算能力 取代人力计算时易出错、不一致的现象。
swap:n.交换;交换之物;vt.与...交换;以...作交换;vi.交换;交易; error-prone:adj.易于出错的; digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键;
These inventions have worked. 这些发明都发挥了作用。
We no longer dig ditches by hand, pound tools out of wrought iron or do bookkeeping using actual books. 我们再也不用徒手挖沟渠, 不用手工锻铁制作工具, 甚至记帐都不用实体帐本了。
ditches:n.(马术)沟; vt.挖沟(ditch的第三人称单数); wrought iron:熟铁; bookkeeping:n.记帐,簿记;
And yet, the fraction of US adults employed in the labor market is higher now in 2016 than it was 125 years ago, in 1890, and it's risen in just about every decade in the intervening 125 years. 但 2016 年,美国成年人的 劳工市场就業率 竟比 125年 前的 1890 年还要高, 而且在这 125 年间, 每 10 年都有成长。
fraction:n.分数;小部分;小数;少量; intervening:adj.介于中间的;v.介入(intervene的ing形式);
This poses a paradox . 这产生了一个矛盾现象。
poses:姿势; paradox:n.悖论,反论;似非而是的论点;自相矛盾的人或事;
Our machines increasingly do our work for us. 机械不断地取代掉我们的工作,
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地;
Why doesn't this make our labor redundant and our skills obsolete ? 但为什么我们的劳工没有过剩且技术没有被淘汰呢？
redundant:adj.多余的,过剩的;被解雇的,失业的;冗长的,累赘的; obsolete:adj.废弃的;老式的;n.废词;陈腐的人;vt.淘汰;废弃;
Why are there still so many jobs? 为什么还是有那么多的工作冈位？
(Laughter) （笑声）
I'm going to try to answer that question tonight, and along the way, I'm going to tell you what this means for the future of work and the challenges that automation does and does not pose for our society. 今晚,我会试着回答这些问题, 并说明这对我们未来的工作有甚么意义, 以及自动化对我们社会
Why are there so many jobs? 为什么有这么多的工作岗位？
There are actually two fundamental economic principles at stake . 这实际上涉及到两个经济学的基本原则。
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; principles:n.原则;主义;本质;政策;(principle的复数) stake:n.桩,棍子;赌注;火刑;奖金;v.资助,支持;系…于桩上;把…押下打赌;
One has to do with human genius and creativity. 一个是与人类的聪明才智 及创造力有关。
genius:n.天才;天资;才能,本领;
The other has to do with human insatiability, or greed , if you like. 另一个与人类贪得无厌的天性有关, 或者你可以叫它做「贪婪」。
greed:n.贪婪,贪心;
I'm going to call the first of these the O-ring principle, and it determines the type of work that we do. 我先从 O 型环原则谈起, 这个原则决定了我们工作的类型。
determines:v.查明;测定;准确算出;决定;裁决;安排;(determine的第三人称单数)
The second principle is the never-get-enough principle, and it determines how many jobs there actually are. 第二个原则是 「永不知足 」原则, 它决定了实际存在的工作岗位会有多少个。
Let's start with the O-ring. 我们先从O型环开始。
ATMs , automated teller machines, had two countervailing effects on bank teller employment. ATM,自动提款机, 它给银行柜台人员的就業机会带来了两种不同的作用。
ATMs:abbr.高级文本管理系统(AdvancedTerminalManagementSystem); countervailing:adj.抵消的;对抗性的;v.补偿;抵消(countervail的ing形式);对抗;
As you would expect, they replaced a lot of teller tasks. 各位都知道,ATM取代了很多柜台人员的工作。
The number of tellers per branch fell by about a third. 每家分行的柜台人员数量大约减少了三分之一。
But banks quickly discovered that it also was cheaper to open new branches, and the number of bank branches increased by about 40 percent in the same time period. 但很快银行就发现设置新分行的成本变便宜了。 同期内,分行的数量 成长了将近 40% 。
The net result was more branches and more tellers. 结果就是,分行越多,柜台人员越多。
But those tellers were doing somewhat different work. 但这些银行职员做的工作与之前有点不同。
somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
As their routine, cash-handling tasks receded , they became less like checkout clerks and more like salespeople , forging relationships with customers, solving problems 随着他们常规的现金業务减少, 他们变得不太像出纳人员 反而更像是个推销人员, 需要与客户培养感情, 幫他们解决问题,
receded:vi.后退;减弱;vt.归还; checkout:检验,结帐 salespeople:n.推销员;[贸易]售货员;店员; forging:n.锻造;锻件;伪造;v.锻造;打制(forge的现在分词);
and introducing them to new products like credit cards, loans and investments : more tellers doing a more cognitively demanding job. 并推销他们新产品,像是信用卡、贷款、投资型产品: 更多的银行职员从事着对脑力认知需求很高的工作。
investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数) cognitively:adv.认知地;
There's a general principle here. 一个普遍的原则就是,
Most of the work that we do requires a multiplicity of skills, and brains and brawn , technical expertise and intuitive mastery , perspiration and inspiration in the words of Thomas Edison. 我们从事的工作, 大都需要多样化的技能, 既要脑力又要体力, 既要求专業素养又要敏锐的直觉, 用爱迪生的话来说,就是天才加勤奋。
multiplicity:n.多样性;[物]多重性; brawn:n.发达的肌肉;膂力;腌制好的野猪肉; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的; expertise:n.专门知识;专门技术;专家的意见; intuitive:adj.直觉的;凭直觉获知的; mastery:n.掌握;精通;优势;征服;统治权; perspiration:n.汗水;流汗;努力;
In general , automating some subset of those tasks doesn't make the other ones unnecessary. 总的来说,其中一些工作自动化了, 但不代表其它的工作就不必要。
In general:总之,通常;一般而言; automating:adj.自动化的;v.使自动化;自动操作;采用自动化技术(automate的ing形式); subset:n.[数]子集;子设备;小团体;
In fact, it makes them more important. 事实上,反而变得更重要,
It increases their economic value. 自动化反而增加了他们的经济价值。
Let me give you a stark example. 我来举一个明显的例子。
In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger exploded and crashed back down to Earth less than two minutes after takeoff . 1986年,挑战者号太空船 在起飞不到两分钟, 失事爆炸,坠毁在地表上。
space shuttle:n.航天飞机; exploded:adj.分解的; v.爆炸; (explode的过去分词和过去式) back down to Earth:回归脚踏实地; takeoff:起飞;开始;起跳;起跳的,起飞的;
The cause of that crash, it turned out, was an inexpensive rubber O-ring in the booster rocket that had frozen on the launchpad the night before and failed catastrophically moments after takeoff. 事后发现,肇事的原因, 原来是推进火箭上一个不起眼的 O 型环, 前一天晚上在发射台上冻僵了, 在发射不久后失效,引发了悲剧。
inexpensive:adj.廉价的;不昂贵的; rubber:n.橡胶;橡皮;v.涂橡胶于…; booster:n.升压机;支持者;扩爆器; launchpad:n.发射坪;发射台; catastrophically:灾难性地;
In this multibillion dollar enterprise that simple rubber O-ring made the difference between mission success and the calamitous death of seven astronauts. 这个耗资十几亿美金的巨大工程, 结果是一个不起眼的 O 型环 决定了,是发射成功 还是失败造成七位太空人的死亡悲剧。
multibillion:adj.(美)数十亿的;(英)数万亿的; mission:n.使命,任务;代表团;布道;v.派遣;向…传教; calamitous:adj.灾难的,悲惨的;不幸的;
An ingenious metaphor for this tragic setting is the O-ring production function, named by Harvard economist Michael Kremer after the Challenger disaster . 这场悲剧催生了一个巧妙的比喻—— 《O型环经济理论》, 由哈佛经济学家麦可克雷姆 在挑战者号失事后所命名。
ingenious:adj.有独创性的;机灵的,精制的;心灵手巧的; metaphor:n.暗喻,隐喻;比喻说法; tragic:adj.悲剧的;悲痛的,不幸的; Harvard:n.哈佛大学;哈佛大学学生; disaster:n.灾难,灾祸;不幸;
The O-ring production function conceives of the work as a series of interlocking steps, links in a chain. 《O型环经济理论》指出,一项工作的诞生 是由一系列互相连结的步骤 所组成的链,
conceives:vt.怀孕;构思;以为;持有;vi.怀孕;设想;考虑; series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书; interlocking:adj.连锁的;n.连锁;咬合作用;
Every one of those links must hold for the mission to succeed. 每一处连结都必须牢固才能保证任务的成功。
If any of them fails, the mission, or the product or the service, comes crashing down. 一旦有任何环节出问题, 该任务、产品或服务 就会失败。
This precarious situation has a surprisingly positive implication , which is that improvements in the reliability of any one link in the chain increases the value of improving any of the other links. 这种不确定的紧张情况,有着一种令人惊叹的积极影响, 因为它可以改善 过程中任一环节的可靠性, 并对其它环节的改善,起了价值增加的作用。
precarious:adj.危险的;不确定的; surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地 positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; implication:n.含意;可能的影响(或作用、结果);暗指;(被)牵连; improvements:n.改善;改进;改善的事物;(improvement的复数) reliability:n.可靠性; improving:v.改进;改善;(improve的现在分词)
Concretely , if most of the links are brittle and prone to breakage , the fact that your link is not that reliable is not that important. 具体来说,如果大多数的连结都很脆弱且很容易坏, 那么每个环节的可靠与否, 就显得不那么重要了。
Concretely:adv.具体地; brittle:adj.易碎的,脆弱的;易生气的; breakage:n.破坏;破损;裂口;破损量; reliable:adj.可信赖的;可依靠的;真实可信的;可靠的;
Probably something else will break anyway. 反正很有可能其它的东西也会坏掉。
But as all the other links become robust and reliable, the importance of your link becomes more essential . 但一旦其它的环节变得相形稳固可靠时, 每一个环节就变得很重要了。
robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的; essential:n.要点;要素;实质;必需品;adj.完全必要的;必不可少的;极其重要的;本质的;
In the limit, everything depends upon it. 到了一个极限,每一个环节都是胜败的关键。
The reason the O-ring was critical to space shuttle Challenger is because everything else worked perfectly. O型环对挑战者号很重要的原因, 是因为其它环节都运作地很完美。
critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
If the Challenger were kind of the space era equivalent of Microsoft Windows 2000 — 如果挑战者号的太空设备 类似Widows 2000作業系统——
equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
(Laughter) （笑声）
the reliability of the O-ring wouldn't have mattered because the machine would have crashed. O型环的可靠性就不那么重要了, 因为机械会直接当机。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Here's the broader point. 这里有个更宏观的观点,
In much of the work that we do, we are the O-rings. 人类所扮演的角色就像O型环。
Yes, ATMs could do certain cash-handling tasks faster and better than tellers, but that didn't make tellers superfluous . 没错,ATM是可以作一些现金交易的任务, 速度也比柜台人员快, 但却无法完全取代柜台人员。
superfluous:adj.多余的;不必要的;奢侈的;
It increased the importance of their problem-solving skills and their relationships with customers. 因为他们的问题解决能力, 及他们维持客户关系的能力,增加了他们的重要性。
problem-solving:adj.问题解决的;n.解决问题;找出问题的答案;
The same principle applies if we're building a building, if we're diagnosing and caring for a patient , or if we are teaching a class to a roomful of high schoolers. 同样的原则也适用于盖房子、 诊断及照顾病人、 或者在教室里 向一整间的高中生教课。
applies:v.适用;申请;运用;专心;(apply的第三人称单数) diagnosing:n.诊断;v.诊断(diagnose的现在分词); patient:adj.有耐心的,能容忍的;n.病人;患者; roomful:n.满房间;全屋的人;
As our tools improve, technology magnifies our leverage and increases the importance of our expertise and our judgment and our creativity. 一旦我们的工具改进了, 科技反而放大了我们的引响力, 提高了我们专業度、 判断力及创造力的重要性。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; magnifies:vt.放大;赞美;夸大;vi.放大;有放大能力; leverage:n.影响力;杠杆作用;杠杆效力;v.举债经营;借贷收购; judgment:n.判断;裁判;判决书;辨别力;
And that brings me to the second principle: never get enough. 讲到这,带出了第二原则: 永不知足。
You may be thinking, OK, O-ring, got it, that says the jobs that people do will be important. 你可能会想,好,O型环理论,我懂了, 人类所从事的工作将会很重要。
They can't be done by machines, but they still need to be done. 这些任务无法由机械完成,但又不能不做。
But that doesn't tell me how many jobs there will need to be. 但这无法说明,我们还需要多少工作。
If you think about it, isn't it kind of self-evident that once we get sufficiently productive at something, we've basically worked our way out of a job? 如果你仔细想想,这有点无法自圆其说, 一旦我们对某样东西有了足够的生产力, 我们基本上不就会自动失業了吗？
self-evident:adj.不言而喻的;不证自明的; sufficiently:adv.充分地;足够地; productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的; basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
In 1900, 40 percent of all US employment was on farms. 1900年,40%的美国就業人口, 从事的工作都是农業。
Today, it's less than two percent. 如今,农業人口比例已经少于2%
Why are there so few farmers today? 为什么农夫会变得这么少？
It's not because we're eating less. 不是因为我们吃得少。
(Laughter) （笑声）
A century of productivity growth in farming means that now, a couple of million farmers can feed a nation of 320 million. 百年来农業生产力的成长, 让我们现在只需200万个农夫, 就能养活全国的3.2亿人口。
productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力;
That's amazing progress, but it also means there are only so many O-ring jobs left in farming. 这真的是个很大的进步, 但这也意味着农产業中,类似O型环的工作也有相对等的增长。
So clearly, technology can eliminate jobs. 所以很明显地,科技会消弥掉工作机会。
Farming is only one example. 农業只是其中一个案例。
There are many others like it. 还有很多类似的案例。
But what's true about a single product or service or industry has never been true about the economy as a whole . 但事实是,一个单一产品、服务或产業的表现, 不能代表总体经济的实质表现。
economy:n.经济;节约;理财; as a whole:总的来说;
Many of the industries in which we now work — health and medicine, finance and insurance , electronics and computing — were tiny or barely existent a century ago. 很多我们现在从事的产業—— 健康、医疗、 理财、保险、 电子、电脑—— 在上一世纪仅有少数人在从業或根本还不存在。
finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费; insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的; electronics:n.电子学;电子工业; computing:n.计算;计算机技术;信息处理技术;v.计算;求出;(compute的现在分词) barely:adv.仅仅,勉强;几乎不;公开地;贫乏地; existent:n.生存者;存在的事物;adj.存在的;生存的;
Many of the products that we spend a lot of our money on — air conditioners , sport utility vehicles , computers and mobile devices — were unattainably expensive, or just hadn't been invented a century ago. 很多我们花很多钱消费的产品—— 空调、运动用交通工具、 电脑、手机设备—— 这些在上一世纪,不是贵得要死, 不然就是还没有被发明出来。
conditioners:[自]调节器;调料槽;调节剂(conditioner的复数); utility:n.公用事业;实用;实用程序;adj.多用途的;多效用的; vehicles:n.车辆;飞行器;运行工具;(vehicles是vehicle的复数) mobile:n.手机;汽车;移动电话;adj.活跃的;可动的; devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数);
As automation frees our time, increases the scope of what is possible, we invent new products, new ideas, new services that command our attention, occupy our time and spur consumption . 当自动化腾出了我们的空闲时间,增进了各个领域的可能性, 我们就会发明新产品,新想法、产生新的服务, 来控制我们的注意力、 占据我们的时间, 并刺激消费。
scope:n.能力; v.仔细看; occupy:v.占据,占领;居住;使忙碌; spur:v.刺激;激励;促进;鞭策;n.刺激;激励;鞭策;靴刺; consumption:n.消费;消耗;肺痨;
You may think some of these things are frivolous — extreme yoga , adventure tourism, and I might agree with you. 你可能会想有些东西真的是多余的—— 极限瑜珈、冒险旅游、 我都同意。
frivolous:adj.无聊的;轻佻的;琐碎的; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; yoga:n.瑜珈(意为"结合",指修行);瑜珈术;联想可360°翻转的平板电脑; adventure:n.冒险;奇遇;经历;冒险游戏;v.探险;以…冒险;大胆进行;闯;
But people desire these things, and they're willing to work hard for them. 但人们就是喜欢这些东西,而且很愿意在它们身上付出心力。
The average worker in 2015 wanting to attain the average living standard in 1915 could do so by working just 17 weeks a year, one third of the time. 2015年的一般劳动阶层, 如果想获得1915年的一般生活水准, 只要每年工作17周就可达到, 只要三分之一的时间。
attain:v.得到;(通常经过努力)获得;达到(某年龄、水平、状况); standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的;
But most people don't choose to do that. 但大部分的人不会那样做。
They are willing to work hard to harvest the technological bounty that is available to them. 他们宁愿选择努力工作 来赚取科技所带给他们的精神食粮。
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; bounty:n.慷慨; vt.发给…奖金等; vi.以赏金等形式发放;
Material abundance has never eliminated perceived scarcity . 丰富的物质永远消除不了内心的空虚。
abundance:n.丰度;丰富;大量;富足; perceived:v.注意到;意识到;将…视为;认为;(perceive的过去式和过去分词) scarcity:n.不足;缺乏;
In the words of economist Thorstein Veblen, invention is the mother of necessity . 套一句经济学家托斯丹范伯伦说的话: 「发明是需求之母 」。
of necessity:必然地;不可避免地;
Now ...
So if you accept these two principles, the O-ring principle and the never-get-enough principle, then you agree with me. 如果你同意上述的两个观点, O型环原则以及永不知足原则, 那你就会认同我说的,
There will be jobs. 一定会有工作冈位产生。
Does that mean there's nothing to worry about? 那是否意味着都不用烦恼了呢？
Automation, employment, robots and jobs — it'll all take care of itself? 自动化、就業机会、机器人和工作—— 它们自己会自动幫我们安排好？
That is not my argument. 这不是我的论点。
Automation creates wealth by allowing us to do more work in less time. 自动化为我们带来了财富, 让我们可以用更少的时间做更多的事。
wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
There is no economic law that says that we will use that wealth well, and that is worth worrying about. 没有经济规则说, 我们会好好地善用自动化所带来的财富, 这的确值得我们担心。
Consider two countries, 想想这两个国家,
Norway and Saudi Arabia . 挪威和沙乌地阿拉伯。
Saudi:adj.沙乌地阿拉伯(人或语)的;n.沙乌地阿拉伯人; Arabia:n.阿拉伯半岛(亚洲西南部,等于ArabianPeninsula);
Both oil-rich nations, it's like they have money spurting out of a hole in the ground. 两个国家都有丰盛的石油, 他们的钱好像是直接从地底下的洞口噴上来的。
oil-rich:石油藏量丰富的; spurting:n.喷射状; vt.喷射,喷出(spurt的现在分词); vi.喷射,喷出;
(Laughter) （笑声）
But they haven't used that wealth equally well to foster human prosperity ,human prospering . 但两个国家利用这笔财富幫助人民繁榮、幫助人民成功的方式却不相同。
foster:vt.培养;养育,抚育;抱(希望等);adj.收养的,养育的; prosperity:n.繁荣,成功; prospering:v.繁荣;兴旺;成功;发达;(prosper的现在分词)
Norway is a thriving democracy . 挪威是个欣欣向榮的民主国家。
thriving:v.兴旺发达;繁荣;旺盛;茁壮成长;(thrive的现在分词) democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治;
By and large , its citizens work and play well together. 总体而言,它的人民都过很舒服。
By and large:大体上,总的来说;
It's typically numbered between first and fourth in rankings of national happiness. 国家人民的幸福指数排名, 基本上都在第一到第四之间徘徊。
typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地; rankings:n.排名;排行(ranking的复数);
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy in which many citizens lack a path for personal advancement . 而沙乌地阿拉伯却是个君主专制的国家, 很多人民的生活水平,都没有机会可以获得改善。
monarchy:n.君主政体;君主国;君主政治; personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词; advancement:n.前进,进步;提升;
It's typically ranked 35th among nations in happiness, which is low for such a wealthy nation. 国家人民的幸福指数,全球排名基本上都落在第35名左右, 这么有钱的国家,排名竟这么落后。
Just by way of comparison , the US is typically ranked around 12th or 13th. 相对来说, 美国大都排在第12到第13之间。
by way of:经由;当作; comparison:n.比较;对比;相比;
The difference between these two countries is not their wealth and it's not their technology. 这两个国家的差别 不在他们有钱与否, 也不在科技是否发达。
It's their institutions . 而是他们的制度。
institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
Norway has invested to build a society with opportunity and economic mobility . 挪威长期来致力于 建立一个充满机会与经济活跃的社会。
invested:v.投资;投入;(invest的过去分词和过去式) mobility:n.移动性;机动性;[电子]迁移率;
Saudi Arabia has raised living standards while frustrating many other human strivings . 虽然沙乌地阿拉伯的生活水平已经有提升, 但人民仍饱受压抑。
standards:n.标准,水平,规格(standard的复数) frustrating:adj.令人沮丧的;v.使沮丧;(frustrate的现在分词) strivings:n.努力;斗争;v.努力(strive的现在分词);奋斗;力争;
Two countries, both wealthy, not equally well off. 两个国家都很有钱, 但人民却有着不同的幸福。
And this brings me to the challenge that we face today, the challenge that automation poses for us. 接下来,我要来谈谈我们目前所面临的挑战, 自动化给我们所带来的挑战。
The challenge is not that we're running out of work. 这挑战不是因为我们会没有工作。
The US has added 14 million jobs since the depths of the Great Recession . 美国自金融海啸以来, 已经增加了1400万个就業机会。
Recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回;
The challenge is that many of those jobs are not good jobs, and many citizens cannot qualify for the good jobs that are being created. 我们的挑战是,这些工作 都不是好工作, 因为很多人都不适任 目前已经创造出来的工作。
qualify for:合格;有…的资格;
Employment growth in the United States and in much of the developed world looks something like a barbell with increasing poundage on either end of the bar. 美国以及其它已开发国家的就業环境, 现在看起来像是个啞铃, 两端都特别重。
barbell:n.杠铃; poundage:n.按每磅的收取的手续费或税金;
On the one hand , you have high-education, high-wage jobs like doctors and nurses, programmers and engineers, marketing and sales managers. 其中一端, 这群人受高等教育、有高薪工作, 像是医生、护士、程式设计师、工程师, 市场及销售经理。
On the one hand:一方面;
Employment is robust in these jobs, employment growth. 这些工作的就業机会相当稳固,就業机会会持续成长。
Similarly , employment growth is robust in many low-skill, low-education jobs like food service, cleaning, security, home health aids. 同样地,技术含量低的就業机会成长也很稳固, 低学历工作像是餐厅服务生、 清洁、保全人员、 居家健康照顾。
Similarly:adv.同样地;类似于;
Simultaneously , employment is shrinking in many middle-education, middle-wage, middle-class jobs, like blue-collar production and operative positions and white-collar clerical and sales positions. 同时,有些就業机会也会萎缩: 中等教育、中等收入、中产阶级的工作, 像是蓝领阶级的生产工人及操作人员, 白领阶级的文书及销售人员。
Simultaneously:adv.同时地; shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词) middle-class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的; blue-collar:adj.穿蓝领工装的;体力劳动的;蓝领阶级; operative:adj.有效的;运转着的;从事生产劳动的;n.侦探;技工; white-collar:adj.白领阶层的;脑力劳动者; clerical:adj.书记的;牧师的;办事员的;n.牧师;
The reasons behind this contracting middle are not mysterious . 这当中的背后原因 也不是甚么多深奥的道理。
contracting:adj.缔约的;承包的;收缩的; mysterious:adj.神秘的;不可思议的;难解的;
Many of those middle-skill jobs use well-understood rules and procedures that can increasingly be codified in software and executed by computers. 很多这种中等技术的工作、 只要充分了解规则及步骤流程 渐渐地都会被软体 及电脑所取代。
procedures:n.程序;规程(procedure的复数); codified:编成法典; executed:v.(尤指依法)处决,处死;实行;执行;实施;(execute的过去分词和过去式)
The challenge that this phenomenon creates, what economists call employment polarization , is that it knocks out rungs in the economic ladder , shrinks the size of the middle class and threatens to make us a more stratified society. 这样的挑战造就了一些现象, 也就是经济学家所称的「就業两极化」, 中间层的工作机会 以及中产阶级都会逐渐消失, 并造成我们的社会更阶级化。
phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物); polarization:n.极化;偏振;两极分化; rungs:n.[建]梯级(rung的复数形式); ladder:n.阶梯;途径;梯状物;v.成名;发迹;在…上装设梯子; shrinks:v.缩水,收缩,缩小;n.精神病学家;心理学家;(shrink的第三人称单数和复数) middle class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的; stratified:adj.分层的;形成阶层的;分为不同等级的;v.使成层(stratify的过去分词);
On the one hand, a set of highly paid, highly educated professionals doing interesting work, on the other, a large number of citizens in low-paid jobs whose primary responsibility is to see to the comfort and health of the affluent . 一边是高薪、受高等教育的专業人士, 做的是有趣的工作, 而另一边,大部分的人是从事低薪的工作, 他们只盼望舒适、健康富裕的日子能赶紧到来。
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; professionals:n.[管理]专业人员(professional的复数); low-paid:adj.低收入的;低工资的; affluent:adj.富裕的;丰富的;流畅的;n.支流;富人;
That is not my vision of progress, and I doubt that it is yours. 这不是我希望的进步, 但我在想,各位都脱离不了这样的趋势。
vision:n.视力;美景;幻象;想象力;v.想象;显现;梦见;
But here is some encouraging news. 但还是有一些令人振奋的好消息。
We have faced equally momentous economic transformations in the past, and we have come through them successfully. 我们过去面临相当大的经济转型, 而且我们都成功克服过来了。
momentous:adj.重要的;重大的; transformations:n.[晶体]转变(transformation的复数形式);转换;
In the late 1800s and early 1900s, when automation was eliminating vast numbers of agricultural jobs — remember that tractor? — the farm states faced a threat of mass unemployment , a generation of youth no longer needed on the farm but not prepared for industry. 在19世纪末,20世纪初, 当自动化取代掉大部分的农场工作—— 还记得拖拉机吗？—— 以农業为主的州面临了大量的失業威胁, 农场不再需要年轻世代的人, 但这些年轻人还没准备好工業化即将带来的冲击。
eliminating:v.排除;清除;消除;淘汰;(eliminate的现在分词) agricultural:adj.农业的;农艺的; mass:n.块,团; adj.群众的,民众的; v.聚集起来,聚集; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数;
Rising to this challenge, they took the radical step of requiring that their entire youth population remain in school and continue their education to the ripe old age of 16. 为了克服挑战, 政府做了一个重大的改革, 要求这些年轻人 在16岁长大成人后, 继续留在学校接受教育。
radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的; ripe:adj.成熟的;口味浓郁的;醇美可口的;强烈的;
This was called the high school movement, and it was a radically expensive thing to do. 这就是美国的高中教育改革运动, 这的确很花钱。
radically:adv.根本上;彻底地;以激进的方式;
Not only did they have to invest in the schools, but those kids couldn't work at their jobs. 因为这些孩子不仅要投入学校, 而且还不能工作。
It also turned out to be one of the best investments the US made in the 20th century. 但最后证明,这是美国在20世纪 做得最好的投资政策之一。
It gave us the most skilled , the most flexible and the most productive workforce in the world. 它让我们学习到全世界最新、最灵活、 最有生产力的技术。
skilled:adj.熟练的;有技能的;需要技能的; flexible:adj.灵活的;柔韧的;易弯曲的; workforce:n.劳动大军;全体员工;
To see how well this worked, imagine taking the labor force of 1899 and bringing them into the present. 如果要看这些变革所带来的好处,我们可以想像一下,把1899年的劳工运动 带回到目前的现实世界。
Despite their strong backs and good characters, many of them would lack the basic literacy and numeracy skills to do all but the most mundane jobs. 尽管这些人背部强壮,品格也很好, 但他们缺乏基本的识字与算数能力, 连最简单的日常工作都做不来。
Despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; literacy:n.读写能力;精通文学; numeracy:n.计算能力,识数; mundane:adj.世俗的,平凡的;世界的,宇宙的;
Many of them would be unemployable . 很多人都不够格上工。
unemployable:adj.不能受雇的;n.不能受雇者;
What this example highlights is the primacy of our institutions, most especially our schools, in allowing us to reap the harvest of our technological prosperity. 这个案例是要说明我们卓越的机构, 特别是我们的学校, 让我们获取了 科技繁榮所带来的成果。
highlights:n.拔萃,集锦; v.使突出(highlight的三单形式); primacy:n.首位;卓越;大主教的职位; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; reap:vt.收获,获得;收割;vi.收割,收获;
It's foolish to say there's nothing to worry about. 所以说不用担心是骗人的。
Clearly we can get this wrong. 我们千万别误会了。
If the US had not invested in its schools and in its skills a century ago with the high school movement, we would be a less prosperous , a less mobile and probably a lot less happy society. 如果美国政府在一世纪前的高中教育改革运动中, 没有投资学校、没有投资技术, 我们可能不会这么繁榮、便利, 社会的幸福感可能也会大大地减少。
prosperous:adj.繁荣的;兴旺的;
But it's equally foolish to say that our fates are sealed. 但说我们就是命中注定,这样说的人也没多聪明,
That's not decided by the machines. 我们的命运并不是由机械决定,
It's not even decided by the market. 也不是由市场决定。
It's decided by us and by our institutions. 这取决于我们自己及我们的机构。
Now, I started this talk with a paradox. 我一开始就提到一个矛盾的现象。
Our machines increasingly do our work for us. 机械不断地取代掉我们的工作,
Why doesn't that make our labor superfluous, our skills redundant? 但为什么我们的劳工没有过剩, 技术没有被淘汰掉？
Isn't it obvious that the road to our economic and social hell is paved with our own great inventions? 这很明显啊！我们伟大的发明, 不就是害我们的经济与社会进入地狱之路的元兇吗？
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; paved:v.(用砖石)铺(地);(pave的过去分词和过去式)
History has repeatedly offered an answer to that paradox. 历史已经重复地为我们解答这个矛盾现象好几次了。
repeatedly:adv.反复地;再三地;屡次地;
The first part of the answer is that technology magnifies our leverage, increases the importance, the added value of our expertise, our judgment and our creativity. 答案的第一个部分就是:科技放大了我们存在的重要性, 增进了我们的价值, 使我们的专業、判断与创造力更佳地提升。
added value:附加值;
That's the O-ring. 这是O型环法则。
The second part of the answer is our endless inventiveness and bottomless desires means that we never get enough, never get enough. 答案的第二部分就是:我们永无止境的发明 以及无穷的欲望。 意思就是我们永远不知足、永不知足。
endless:adj.无止境的;连续的;环状的;漫无目的的; inventiveness:n.创造性;发明的才能; bottomless:adj.无底的;深不可测的;难解的;取之不尽的;
There's always new work to do. 总是有新事物要做。
Adjusting to the rapid pace of technological change creates real challenges, seen most clearly in our polarized labor market and the threat that it poses to economic mobility. 适应快速的科技变化 创造出了真实的挑战, 最明显地就是我们劳动市场的两极化, 以及它为经济活跃度所带来的威胁。
Adjusting:v.调整;调节;适应;习惯;(adjust的现在分词) polarized:v.(使)两极化,截然对立; (polarize的过去分词和过去式)
Rising to this challenge is not automatic . 这些挑战不会自动地被克服。
automatic:adj.自动的;无意识的;必然的;n.自动步枪;自动换挡汽车;
It's not costless . 它不便宜,
costless:adj.不花钱的;无须付出代价的;
It's not easy. 也不容易。
But it is feasible . 但,是可以预见的。
feasible:adj.可行的;可能的;可实行的;
And here is some encouraging news. 这里有一些好消息,
Because of our amazing productivity, we're rich. 因为我们惊人的生产力, 我们变富有了。
Of course we can afford to invest in ourselves and in our children as America did a hundred years ago with the high school movement. 当然我们已经负担的起投资我们自己、我们孩子的费用, 就像美国一百年前的高中教育改革运动一样。
afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
Arguably , we can't afford not to. 严格来讲,我们不能说我们负担不起。
Arguably:v.可论证地;
Now, you may be thinking, 你可能在想,
Professor Autor has told us a heartwarming tale about the distant past, the recent past, maybe the present, but probably not the future. 奥图教授已经告诉了我们一个 有关于好几年前、 最近几年, 可能是现在,但不是未来的动人故事。
heartwarming:adj.感人的;暖人心房的; distant:adj.遥远的;远处的;久远的;
Because everybody knows that this time is different. 因为大家都知道这次不一样了。
Right? Is this time different? 对吧？这次会不一样吗？
Of course this time is different. 当然不一样。
Every time is different. 每次都不一样。
On numerous occasions in the last 200 years, scholars and activists have raised the alarm that we are running out of work and making ourselves obsolete: for example, the Luddites in the early 1800s; 过去200年,在无数场合中, 学者与社会运动者不断地警告我们, 工作要消失了,我们会被我们自己给淘汰掉: 例如,19世纪初的卢德份子（英国参加捣毁机器的人）;
numerous:adj.许多的,很多的; scholars:n.学者们(scholar的复数);
US Secretary of Labor James Davis in the mid-1920s; 1920年中的美国劳工部长 詹姆士戴维斯;
Nobel Prize-winning economist Wassily Leontief in 1982; and of course, many scholars, pundits , technologists and media figures today. 1982年诺贝尔经济学家,瓦西里·列昂季耶夫; 当然,还有很多学者、 评论员、科学家 还有今日的媒体名嘴。
Prize-winning:获奖的; pundits:权威(pundit的复数); technologists:n.技术人员(technologist的复数);[劳经]技术专家; media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
These predictions strike me as arrogant . 这些人的预测在我看来似乎都很狂妄。
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); arrogant:adj.自大的,傲慢的;
These self-proclaimed oracles are in effect saying, "If I can't think of what people will do for work in the future, then you, me and our kids aren't going to think of it either." 这些自称圣贤的人,像是在告诉我们, 「如果我都想像不到人们未来可以做什么工作, 那么,你、我、我们的小孩 也都不会想像到。」
self-proclaimed:adj.自称的; oracles:圣人;预言(oracle的名词复数);
I don't have the guts to take that bet against human ingenuity . 我没胆在公众面前,对人类的聪明才智
have the guts:有勇气; bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿; ingenuity:n.心灵手巧,独创性;精巧;精巧的装置;
Look, I can't tell you what people are going to do for work a hundred years from now. 听着,我无法告诉你一百年后 人们要做什么工作。
But the future doesn't hinge on my imagination . 因为未来不是我说了算。
hinge:n.铰链,折叶; v.用铰链连接; (门等)装有蝶铰; imagination:n.想象;想象力;创造力;想象的事物;
If I were a farmer in Iowa in the year 1900, and an economist from the 21st century teleported down to my field and said, "Hey, guess what, farmer Autor, in the next hundred years, to two percent purely due to rising productivity. 如果我是1900年爱荷华州的农夫, 如果有一位21世纪的经济学家瞬间移动来到我的农场, 跟我说,「嘿,奥图农夫,你知道吗？ 接下来的100年, 剩2%, 只因为生产力提升了。
teleported:vt.(心灵学用语)心灵运输(物体,人); purely:adv.完全;仅仅;
What do you think the other 38 percent of workers are going to do?" 你觉得剩下38%的人将来会做什么工作？ 」
I would not have said, "Oh, we got this. 我不可能会说,「喔,我们早就知道了,
We'll do app development, radiological medicine, yoga instruction, Bitmoji." 我们会开发app软体、放射性药物、 瑜珈课程、手机表情符号软体Bitmoji」
radiological:adj.放射学的;放射线学的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
I wouldn't have had a clue . 我根本不会知道的。
clue:n.提示;迹象;(纵横填字谜、游戏或问题的)提示词语;v.提示;为…提供线索;
But I hope I would have had the wisdom to say, "Wow, a 95 percent reduction in farm employment with no shortage of food. 但我希望我可以智慧地说出, 「哇,少了95%的农场工人, 却没有造成食物短缺,
wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问; reduction:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图; shortage:n.短缺;不足;缺少;
That's an amazing amount of progress. 真的是一大进步啊！
I hope that humanity finds something remarkable to do with all of that prosperity." 我希望人类繁榮富有后, 能找到更有意义的事来做。」
humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的;
And by and large, I would say that it has. 总体而言,我会说那是一定要的。
Thank you very much. 非常感谢各位。
(Applause) （掌声）