DannyHillis.1994-.回到未来（1994）.；TED演讲稿

返回首页


DannyHillis_1994-_回到未来（1994）_
Because I usually take the role of trying to explain to people how wonderful the new technologies that are coming along are going to be, and I thought that, since I was among friends here,	由于我经常向人们解释即将到来的新科技将会多么的美妙我想既然我跟各位朋友们一起在这
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数);
I would tell you what I really think and try to look back and try to understand what is really going on here with these amazing jumps in technology that seem so fast that we can barely keep on top of it.	就让我来说说我真正的想法并试着回顾和理解这到底是如何发生的有了这些科技上的惊人进步。科技的进步似乎快到我们根本无法赶上它的脚步。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; barely:adv.仅仅,勉强;几乎不;公开地;贫乏地; keep on top:掌控;驾驭;
So I'm going to start out by showing just one very boring technology slide.	让我先从这开始一页很无趣的科技幻灯片。
boring:adj.无聊的;令人厌烦的;n.钻孔;v.使厌烦;钻孔;(bore的现在分词)
And then, so if you can just turn on the slide that's on.	然后可以开始放幻灯片了。（对工作人员说）
This is just a random slide that I picked out of my file.	这只是我从我的文件中随机挑选出的一张。
random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地;
What I want to show you is not so much the details of the slide, but the general form of it.	我想要你们看的并不是它的细节, 而是它的总体形式。
This happens to be a slide of some analysis that we were doing about the power of RISC microprocessors versus the power of local area networks.	这个是我们做的关于RISC微处理器功率与本地网路功率分析的幻灯片。
analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; microprocessors:n.[计]微处理器(microprocessor的复数);[计]微处理机; versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
And the interesting thing about it is that this slide, like so many technology slides that we're used to, is a sort of a straight line on a semi-log curve .	有趣的是这页幻灯片就像很多我们所熟悉的幻灯片一样, 是半对数曲线图上的一条直线。
semi-log:adj.半对数的; curve:n.曲线;弯曲;曲面;弧线;v.(使)沿曲线移动;呈曲线形;
In other words, every step here represents an order of magnitude in performance scale .	也就是这里的每一层, 代表了性能程度大小的一级。
represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) order of magnitude:n.数量级(量度物理量大小的标准,用以10为底的指数表达); performance:n.性能;表现;业绩;表演; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
And this is a new thing that we talk about technology on semi-log curves .	在半对数曲线图上讨论科技, 这很新鲜。
curves:n.曲线; v.(使)沿曲线运动; (curve的第三人称单数和复数)
Something really weird is going on here.	这其中有点奇特。
weird:adj.奇怪的;奇异的;离奇的;n.命运;宿命;命运女神;
And that's basically what I'm going to be talking about.	这基本上是我接下来要说的。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
So, if you could bring up the lights.	（对工作人员）麻烦开一下灯。
If you could bring up the lights higher, because I'm just going to use a piece of paper here.	请把灯开亮点, 因为我要用张纸。
Now why do we draw technology curves in semi-log curves?	为什么我们要用对数曲线描绘科技曲线呢？
Well the answer is, if I drew it on a normal curve where, let's say, this is years, this is time of some sort, and this is whatever measure of the technology that I'm trying to graph, the graphs look sort of silly.	嗯,答案是,如果我用普通曲线画, 我们说,这是年份, 这是某个时间, 这是我准备画的科技的某种测量值, 这图看起来有点傻。
They sort of go like this.	就有点像是这样。
And they don't tell us much.	而且并没有提供什么资讯。
Now if I graph, for instance , some other technology, say transportation technology, on a semi-log curve, it would look very stupid, it would look like a flat line.	现在,如果我画,比如说, 另一种技术,像是交通运输, 在半对数曲线上, 它看起来很蠢,会像条很平的线。
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例; transportation:n.运输;运输系统;运输工具;流放;
But when something like this happens, things are qualitatively changing.	但是如果出现像这种质变的情况。
qualitatively:adv.定性地;从品质上讲;
So if transportation technology was moving along as fast as microprocessor technology, then the day after tomorrow,	如果交通运输技术进步地像微处理器业一样快的话, 那,后天
I would be able to get in a taxi cab and be in Tokyo in 30 seconds.	我就能搭一辆出租车然后在30秒内到东京。
It's not moving like that.	但它并没有进步得那么快。
And there's nothing precedented in the history of technology development of this kind of self-feeding growth where you go by orders of magnitude every few years.	在科技发展历史中也没有任何这种自给自足, 每几年程度翻倍增长的先例。
Now the question that I'd like to ask is, if you look at these exponential curves, they don't go on forever.	现在我想要问的是, 如果你观察这些指数曲线, 他们并非永远的持续下去。
exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数;
Things just can't possibly keep changing as fast as they are.	事物不可能一直改变得那么快。
One of two things is going to happen.	两件事会发生,
Either it's going to turn into a sort of classical S-curve like this, until something totally different comes along, or maybe it's going to do this.	要么它会变成像这样典型的S曲线直到完全不同的情况出现。或是会变成这样。
classical:adj.古典的;经典的;传统的;第一流的;n.古典音乐;
That's about all it can do.	这就是所有可能。
Now I'm an optimist , so I sort of think it's probably going to do something like that.	现在我是个乐观主义者, 所以我觉得它很有可能就会变成这样。
optimist:n.乐观主义者;乐天派;
If so, that means that what we're in the middle of right now is a transition .	如果是这样,意味着我们目前所在的是过渡阶段。
transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡;
We're sort of on this line in a transition from the way the world used to be to some new way that the world is.	我们似乎在这条线上, 在世界从过去到将来的转变中。
And so what I'm trying to ask, what I've been asking myself, is what's this new way that the world is?	所有我要问的,我一直在问自己的, 就是这世界未来道路在哪？
What's that new state that the world is heading toward?	它趋向的新时代是什么样的？
Because the transition seems very, very confusing when we're right in the middle of it.	由于这个变化似乎非常,非常迷惑人, 当我们正处于其中时。
confusing:adj.令人困惑; v.使糊涂; (confuse的现在分词)
Now when I was a kid growing up, the future was kind of the year 2000, and people used to talk about what would happen in the year 2000.	我小时候,长大过程中未来就像是20000年, 人们都在讨论2000年将会发生什么。
Now here's a conference in which people talk about the future, and you notice that the future is still at about the year 2000.	现在这个会议上, 大家在讨论未来, 而且你能发现这未来指的还是那个“2000年”。
conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
It's about as far as we go out.	这就是我们能达到的程度。
as far as:至于…;
So in other words, the future has kind of been shrinking one year per year for my whole lifetime.	换句话说,未来正在缩水, 一生中每年缩短一年。
shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词)
Now I think that the reason is because we all feel that something's happening there.	我想原因是我们都感觉到正在发生些什么。
That transition is happening. We can all sense it.	变化正在发生。我们都能察觉到。
And we know that it just doesn't make too much sense to think out 30, 50 years because everything's going to be so different that a simple extrapolation of what we're doing just doesn't make any sense at all.	我们知道去考虑那未来的三、五十年已经没什么意义了, 因为每件事都将如此不同以至于推测将来不再有意义。
think out:解决;仔细考虑;发现; extrapolation:n.[数]外推法;推断;
So what I would like to talk about is what that could be, what that transition could be that we're going through.	所以我要聊聊那会是怎样, 我们正在经历的转变会是怎样。
Now in order to do that	为达到这个目的,
I'm going to have to talk about a bunch of stuff that really has nothing to do with technology and computers.	我得介绍一堆东西它们与科技和电脑完全无关。
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
Because I think the only way to understand this is to really step back and take a long time scale look at things.	因为我决定理解这个的唯一方法就是回顾过去拉长时间轴去看。
So the time scale that I would like to look at this on is the time scale of life on Earth.	而我所要看的时间轴是以地球上生命的时间尺来看。
So I think this picture makes sense if you look at it a few billion years at a time.	我想这幅图合理了如果你一次从几十亿年来看。
So if you go back about two and a half billion years, the Earth was this big, sterile hunk of rock with a lot of chemicals floating around on it.	如果回溯/所以如果你回溯个大概25亿年, 地球这么大,贫瘠的大块石头上面浮着些化学物质。
sterile:adj.不育的;无菌的;贫瘠的;不毛的;枯燥乏味的; hunk:n.大块,大片;厚块;(俚语)强壮;adj.好的;行的; chemicals:n.化学制品;化学品;(chemical的复数)
And if you look at the way that the chemicals got organized , we begin to get a pretty good idea of how they do it.	要是观察这些化学物质怎样组合的, 我们开始弄明白它们怎么形成的。
organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式)
And I think that there's theories that are beginning to understand about how it started with RNA, but I'm going to tell a sort of simple story of it, which is that, at that time, there were little drops of oil floating around with all kinds of different recipes of chemicals in them.	我想有些理论是从理解生命怎样从核糖核酸演变开始, 但是我想讲一个生命简单的故事, 就是,在那个时候, 有一滴滴的油四处浮动, 里面有各种不同化学成分组合。
recipes:n.烹饪法;食谱;方法;秘诀;诀窍;(recipe的复数)
And some of those drops of oil had a particular combination of chemicals in them which caused them to incorporate chemicals from the outside and grow the drops of oil.	有些油滴里面含有特殊的化学构成这导致它们可以从外界聚集化学物质并慢慢变大。
combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合; incorporate:vt.包含,吸收; vi.合并; adj.合并的;
And those that were like that started to split and divide.	像这样的油滴又开始分化,分离。
split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
And those were the most primitive forms of cells in a sense , those little drops of oil.	最原始的那些在某种程度上形成了细胞, 这些小小的油滴。
primitive:adj.原始的,远古的;简单的,粗糙的;n.原始人; in a sense:在某种意义上;
But now those drops of oil weren't really alive, as we say it now, because every one of them was a little random recipe of chemicals.	但目前为止这些油滴不是真的活的,在我们现在看来, 因为每一个都是化学物质的随机合成。
And every time it divided, they got sort of unequal division of the chemicals within them.	每分裂一次, 都不是平均分布内部的化学物。
unequal:adj.不平等的;不规则的;不胜任的;n.不等同的事物; division:n.师;分配;分开;分歧;
And so every drop was a little bit different.	所以每个油滴都有点不同。
In fact, the drops that were different in a way that caused them to be better at incorporating chemicals around them, grew more and incorporated more chemicals and divided more.	实际上,油滴不同的方式是让它们能更好地集成周围的化合物, 长得更大,吸收更多,分裂更多。
incorporating:v.将…包括在内;包含;吸收;使并入;注册成立;(incorporate的现在分词) incorporated:adj.合并的; v.合并;
So those tended to live longer, get expressed more.	所以它们会活得更长, 表现得更多。
expressed:v.表示;表达;显而易见;不言自明;(express的过去分词和过去式)
Now that's sort of just a very simple chemical form of life, but when things got interesting was when these drops learned a trick about abstraction .	这就有点像个很简单的生命的化学形式, 但过程变得有趣是当这些油滴学会了一个提供资讯的技巧时。
abstraction:n.抽象;出神;心神专注;提取;分离;
Somehow by ways that we don't quite understand, these little drops learned to write down information.	不知怎么用我们不能完全理解的方式, 这些小油滴学会了记录资讯。
Somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地;
They learned to record the information that was the recipe of the cell onto a particular kind of chemical called DNA.	它们学会把细胞形成的秘诀记录到一种特殊物质上, 叫做去氧核糖核酸。
So in other words, they worked out, in this mindless sort of evolutionary way, a form of writing that let them write down what they were, so that that way of writing it down could get copied.	也就是说,它们想出了, 以这种随性的进化方式, 可以写下它们是什么的记录方式, 以便这种记录方式能被复制。
mindless:adj.愚蠢的;不小心的;不需要动脑筋的;不顾虑的; evolutionary:adj.进化的;发展的;渐进的;
The amazing thing is that that way of writing seems to have stayed steady since it evolved two and a half billion years ago.	惊奇的是这种记录方式似乎可以保持稳定由于它25亿年前演化出来的。
steady:adj.稳定的; v.使稳定; v.稳定地; n.关系固定的情侣; evolved:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成;(evolve的过去分词和过去式)
In fact the recipe for us, our genes , is exactly that same code and that same way of writing.	实际上我们,我们的基因的组成就是完全一样的代码,一样的记录方式。
genes:n.基因;(gene的复数)
In fact, every living creature is written in exactly the same set of letters and the same code.	实际上,任何生物都是用完全一样的字母和代码记录下来的。
creature:n.生物;动物;(具有某种特征的)人;
In fact, one of the things that I did just for amusement purposes is we can now write things in this code.	实际上,我所做的仅是为了娱乐效果的一件事就是我们能用这个代码记录事件。
And I've got here a little 100 micrograms of white powder , which I try not to let the security people see at airports .	我这有100微克的白粉, 我尽力不让机场安检人员发现它们。
micrograms:n.微克;微观图,显微照片; powder:n.粉末;细面;扑面粉;美容粉;v.傅粉;抹粉; airports:n.[航]机场;[航]航空港(airport的复数形式);
(Laughter)	（笑声）
But this has in it -- what I did is I took this code -- the code has standard letters that we use for symbolizing it -- and I wrote my business card onto a piece of DNA and amplified it 10 to the 22 times.	不过这里面有代码我所做的是我拿着这代码它里面有我们用来标记它的标准字母, 然后我把我的名片写到一条去氧核糖核酸上再放大10到22倍。
standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; symbolizing:象征,作为…的象征;用符号表示(symbolize的现在分词); business card:n.[商]名片; amplified:v.放大;详述(amplify的过去分词);adj.放大的;扩充的;
So if anyone would like a hundred million copies of my business card,	所以如果有人需要数百万我的名片,
I have plenty for everyone in the room, and, in fact, everyone in the world, and it's right here.	我有足够多分给在座每个人, 甚至是全世界每个人, 就在这。
(Laughter)	（笑声）
If I had really been a egotist ,	要是我是个自大的人,
egotist:n.自高自大者;言必称"我"者(形容词egotistic,副词egotistically);
I would have put it into a virus and released it in the room.	我就会把它放到病毒里散布到屋子中。
released:v.释放;使免除;已发布;(release的过去分词和过去式)
(Laughter)	（笑声）
So what was the next step?	所以下一步是什么？
Writing down the DNA was an interesting step.	记录去氧核糖核酸是有趣的一步。
And that caused these cells -- that kept them happy for another billion years.	它导致了细胞的形成—— 让它们又高兴了几十亿年。
But then there was another really interesting step where things became completely different, which is these cells started exchanging and communicating information, so that they began to get communities of cells.	不过还有个很有趣的环节事情开始变得完全不同, 那就是这些细胞开始交换和交流资讯, 从而形成细胞团体。
communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数)
I don't know if you know this, but bacteria can actually exchange DNA.	我不知道你们是否知道这个, 细菌实际上就可以交换去氧核糖核酸。
bacteria:n.[微]细菌; exchange:n.交换;交流;交易所;兑换;v.交换;交易;兑换;
Now that's why, for instance, antibiotic resistance has evolved.	这就是为什么,比如, 演变出抗菌免疫。
antibiotic:adj.抗生的;抗菌的;n.抗生素,抗菌素; resistance:n.电阻;抵抗;阻力;抗力;
Some bacteria figured out how to stay away from penicillin , and it went around sort of creating its little DNA information with other bacteria, and now we have a lot of bacteria that are resistant to penicillin , because bacteria communicate.	有些细菌知道怎么远离青霉素, 然后它创造它这点去氧核糖核酸资讯, 并在别的细菌中到处游走, 现在我们有很多对青霉素免疫的细菌了, 因为细菌会交流资讯。
penicillin:n.盘尼西林(青霉素); resistant:adj.抵抗的,反抗的;顽固的;n.抵抗者;
Now what this communication allowed was communities to form that, in some sense, were in the same boat together; they were synergistic .	这样,这些交流致使群落的形成, 在某种意义上,它们在同一条船上了; 它们是协作的。
synergistic:adj.协同的;协作的,协同作用的;
So they survived or they failed together, which means that if a community was very successful, all the individuals in that community were repeated more and they were favored by evolution.	因此它们一起幸存下来或者一起死去, 也就是说如果一个群落成功了, 所有群落里的个体都能复制更多, 在进化更有利。
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
Now the transition point happened when these communities got so close that, in fact, they got together and decided to write down the whole recipe for the community together on one string of DNA.	于是,转换点到了, 当这些族群很亲近时, 事实上,它们聚集到一起并决定在一起在一条去氧核糖核酸上写下整个族群的成分谱。
string:n.字符串; v.悬挂; adj.由弦乐器组成的;
And so the next stage that's interesting in life took about another billion years.	生命中下一个有趣的阶段又要几十亿年。
And at that stage, we have multi-cellular communities, communities of lots of different types of cells, working together as a single organism .	在这个时期, 有多细胞族群, 就是有很多种不同细胞的群落, 作为有机体一起合作。
organism:n.生物;有机体;有机组织;(尤指)微生物;
And in fact, we're such a multi-cellular community.	实际上,我们就是这样的多细胞族群。
We have lots of cells that are not out for themselves anymore.	我们有很多细胞, 它们不再是只为自己存活。
Your skin cell is really useless without a heart cell, muscle cell, a brain cell and so on.	皮肤细胞根本没用, 要是没有心脏细胞,肌肉细胞, 脑细胞等等。
muscle:n.肌肉;力量;v.加强;使劲搬动;使劲挤出;
So these communities began to evolve so that the interesting level on which evolution was taking place was no longer a cell, but a community which we call an organism.	所以这些族群开始进化这样发生有趣的进化的不再仅仅是单一细胞。而是我们称为机体的族群。
Now the next step that happened is within these communities.	接下来发生就是在这些族群中。
These communities of cells, again, began to abstract information.	这些细胞群落, 再次,开始提取资讯。
And they began building very special structures that did nothing but process information within the community.	它们开始构建非常特别的专门处理群落内资讯的结构。
structures:n.结构; v.建造(structure的第三人称单数形式);
And those are the neural structures.	这些就是神经结构。
neural:adj.神经的;神经系统的;背的;神经中枢的;
So neurons are the information processing apparatus that those communities of cells built up.	所以神经元是这些细胞群建立的资讯处理仪器。
processing:v.加工;处理;审核;数据处理;v.列队行进;缓缓前进;(process的现在分词) apparatus:n.装置,设备;仪器;器官;
And in fact, they began to get specialists in the community and special structures that were responsible for recording, understanding, learning information.	实际上,群落里开始出现专家以及特殊结构负责记录, 理解,学习资讯。
responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的;
And that was the brains and the nervous system of those communities.	这就是这些细胞群的大脑和神经系统。
nervous system:n.神经系统;
And that gave them an evolutionary advantage .	这给了它们进化的有利条件。
advantage:n.有利条件:优势:优点:
Because at that point, an individual -- learning could happen within the time span of a single organism, instead of over this evolutionary time span.	因为这样的话, 对每个个体—— 学习可以发生在单个机体的时间范围内, 而不是整个进化时间跨度。
time span:n.一段时间;时段;
So an organism could, for instance, learn not to eat a certain kind of fruit because it tasted bad and it got sick last time it ate it.	所以一个机体能够,比如说, 学会不吃某种水果因为它不好吃而且上次吃的觉得恶心。
That could happen within the lifetime of a single organism, whereas before they'd built these special information processing structures, that would have had to be learned evolutionarily over hundreds of thousands of years by the individuals dying off that ate that kind of fruit.	这可以发生在一个机体的一生中, 然后在这种特殊信心处理结构建成前, 这得要进化学习千万年, 通过吃了这种水果前仆后继死去的个体。
whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; evolutionarily:进化上;
So that nervous system, the fact that they built these special information structures, tremendously sped up the whole process of evolution.	所以神经系统, 生物组建这种特殊结构的事实, 极大地加速了进化的进程。
tremendously:adv.非常地;可怕地;惊人地;
Because evolution could now happen within an individual.	因为至此进化可以在个体中发生了。
It could happen in learning time scales .	它能发生在学习的时间刻度内。
scales:n.规模范围; v.攀登; (scale的第三人称单数和复数)
But then what happened was the individuals worked out, of course, tricks of communicating.	但是接下来发生的是每个个体发现了, 当然,交流的秘诀。
And for example, the most sophisticated version that we're aware of is human language.	比如说, 我们所知道的最精密的版本就是人类语言。
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的;
It's really a pretty amazing invention if you think about it.	想想看,这真是个奇妙的发明。
Here I have a very complicated , messy , confused idea in my head.	我脑子里有个很复杂,混乱, 疑惑的想法。
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式) messy:adj.肮脏的;凌乱的;不整洁的; confused:adj.困惑的; v.使糊涂; (confuse的过去分词和过去式)
I'm sitting here making grunting sounds basically, and hopefully constructing a similar messy, confused idea in your head that bears some analogy to it.	我坐在这,基本上就是吐字发声, 希望在你们头脑里建立一个类似的混乱跟它有点类似的想法。
grunting:v.发出呼噜声;发出哼声;咕哝;(grunt的现在分词) constructing:n.构造;v.构造(construct的现在分词); analogy:n.类比;类推;类似;
But we're taking something very complicated, turning it into sound, sequences of sounds, and producing something very complicated in your brain.	但是我们正在把很复杂的东西转化成声音,一连串的声音, 并在你们大脑产生很复杂的东西。
sequences:n.[数][计]序列,顺序;继起的事(sequence的复数形式);
So this allows us now to begin to start functioning as a single organism.	所以现在这推动我们开始运作, 作为单个机体。
And so, in fact, what we've done is we, humanity , have started abstracting out.	所以,实际上,我们已经完成的就是我们,人类, 开始抽离出来。
humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; abstracting:n.文摘;v.[图情]摘要(abstract的现在分词);
We're going through the same levels that multi-cellular organisms have gone through -- abstracting out our methods of recording, presenting, processing information.	我们正在经历多细胞机体经历的相同的阶段—— 提取我们记录, 展示,处理资讯的方式。
organisms:n.[生物]生物体(organism的复数);[生物]有机体;
So for example, the invention of language was a tiny step in that direction.	比如说,语言的发明就是这个方向上很小一步。
Telephony , computers, videotapes , CD-ROMs and so on are all our specialized mechanisms that we've now built within our society for handling that information.	电话,电脑, 影碟,光碟等等都是我们的特殊机制, 我们正在社会里构建用来处理资讯的机制。
Telephony:n.电话(学);电话制造; videotapes:n.录像带;录像磁带(videotape的复数); specialized:adj.专业的; v.专门研究(或从事); (specialize的过去式和过去分词) mechanisms:n.机制;[机]机构(mechanism的复数);机械;[机]机构学;
And it all connects us together into something that is much bigger and much faster and able to evolve than what we were before.	这些都是把我们联系在一起, 变的比我们之前更大, 更快, 更有能力进化。
So now, evolution can take place on a scale of microseconds .	所以,现在进化可以发生在微妙的数量级上。
take place:发生;举行; microseconds:n.微秒(microsecond的复数);
And you saw Ty's little evolutionary example where he sort of did a little bit of evolution on the Convolution program right before your eyes.	你们看过泰伊的那个的进化的小例子他好像就在你们眼前的卷积程式上展现了一点进化了。
Convolution:n.[数]卷积;回旋;盘旋;卷绕;
So now we've speeded up the time scales once again.	所以现在我们再次加快时间跨度。
speeded:vbl.加速;
So the first steps of the story that I told you about took a billion years a piece.	我讲的故事的第一步每一块花费了几十亿年。
And the next steps, like nervous systems and brains, took a few hundred million years.	下一步, 像神经系统和大脑, 消耗几百万年。
Then the next steps, like language and so on, took less than a million years.	再接下来,像语言等等, 需要不到一百万年。
And these next steps, like electronics , seem to be taking only a few decades.	再下一步,像电子器件, 仿佛只要几十年。
electronics:n.电子学;电子工业;
The process is feeding on itself and becoming, I guess, autocatalytic is the word for it -- when something reinforces its rate of change.	这个过程是自给自足, 并且变成,我猜,应该自我催化描述更合适—— 当事物加快改变的速度。
autocatalytic:adj.自动催化的;自催化的;自身催化的; reinforces:加固;加强;增援;巩固;
The more it changes, the faster it changes.	变化越多,变化就越快。
And I think that that's what we're seeing here in this explosion of curve.	我想这就是我们在这看到的激增曲线。
explosion:n.爆炸;爆发;激增;
We're seeing this process feeding back on itself.	我们看到这个过程回馈到自己。
Now I design computers for a living, and I know that the mechanisms that I use to design computers would be impossible without recent advances in computers.	我现在工作就是自己设计电脑, 我知道用来设计电脑的这些机制不可能存在, 要是没有近期电脑的进步。
So right now, what I do is I design objects at such complexity that it's really impossible for me to design them in the traditional sense.	现在,我做的是设计复杂到不可能从传统意义上设计的物体。
complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势 traditional:传统的,惯例的,
I don't know what every transistor in the connection machine does.	我不知道连接机器上每个电晶体的作用。
transistor:n.晶体管(收音机);
There are billions of them.	有几十亿电晶体。
Instead, what I do and what the designers at Thinking Machines do is we think at some level of abstraction and then we hand it to the machine and the machine takes it beyond what we could ever do, much farther and faster than we could ever do.	实际上,我所做的思考机器的设计师们做的, 我们认为是为某种程度的资讯抽取, 然后把它传给机器而机器把它运用到超出我们所能做的范围, 而且比我们从前所做的更远更快。
And in fact, sometimes it takes it by methods that we don't quite even understand.	实际上,有时候他采用的方法我们并不很懂。
One method that's particularly interesting that I've been using a lot lately is evolution itself.	有个尤其有趣我最近一直在用的就是进化本身。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
So what we do is we put inside the machine a process of evolution that takes place on the microsecond time scale.	我们做的就是在机器里放入一个进化进程, 这个进程在微妙级别上就能发生。
So for example, in the most extreme cases, we can actually evolve a program by starting out with random sequences of instructions.	比如, 大部分极端情况下, 我们实际上能通过从随机的指令序列开始进化一个程式。
extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物;
Say, "Computer, would you please make a hundred million random sequences of instructions.	（就像）说“电脑,请你产生一亿随机指令序列。
Now would you please run all of those random sequences of instructions, run all of those programs, and pick out the ones that came closest to doing what I wanted."	现在请你运行所有这些随机指令列, 运行所有程式, 并选出最接近我想要的。”
So in other words, I define what I wanted.	也就是说,我定义我要什么。
define:v.定义;使明确;规定;
Let's say I want to sort numbers, as a simple example I've done it with.	假设我需要分类资料, 这是个我用它试验过的简单例子。
So find the programs that come closest to sorting numbers.	找到最接近资料分类的程式。
So of course, random sequences of instructions are very unlikely to sort numbers, so none of them will really do it.	当然,随机的指令序列很不可能分类资料, 所以它们中没有一个能完成。
unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的;
But one of them, by luck, may put two numbers in the right order.	但是中间有一个,运气很好, 可能会把两个数按顺序排列。
And I say, "Computer, would you please now take the 10 percent of those random sequences that did the best job.	我说,“电脑, 请你现在选出序列中百分之十完成得最好的。
Save those. Kill off the rest.	保存这些。删掉其他的。
And now let's reproduce the ones that sorted numbers the best.	现在来复制资料分类得最好的这些。
reproduce:v.繁殖;复制;再现;生育;
And let's reproduce them by a process of recombination analogous to sex."	以类似交配的重组过程来复制他们。
recombination:n.复合,再结合;[遗]重组; analogous:adj.类似的;[昆]同功的;可比拟的;
Take two programs and they produce children by exchanging their subroutines , and the children inherit the traits of the subroutines of the two programs.	取两个程式交换他们的副程式让它们产生子女, 这些子女继承了两个程式副程式的特征。
subroutines:n.[计]子程序(subroutine的复数);副程式; inherit:v.继承;接替(责任等);继任; traits:n.特性,特质,性格(trait的复数);
So I've got now a new generation of programs that are produced by combinations of the programs that did a little bit better job.	所以我得到新一代的由组合做的比较好的程式而产生的程式。
combinations:n.[数]组合;制品(combination的复数);合谱;
Say, "Please repeat that process."	（指令）说,”请重复这个过程。“
Score them again.	再做一次。
Introduce some mutations perhaps.	可能引入一些突变。
mutations:n.[遗]突变;变化;转变(mutation的复数形式);
And try that again and do that for another generation.	再试一次并用在新的一代上。
Well every one of those generations just takes a few milliseconds .	这一代上每个程式只需要几毫秒。
milliseconds:n.[计量]毫秒(millisecond的复数形式);
So I can do the equivalent of millions of years of evolution on that within the computer in a few minutes, or in the complicated cases, in a few hours.	所以我在电脑上用几分钟能做等同于几百万年的进化过程, 或者,情况复杂时,在几小时内完成。
equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
At the end of that, I end up with programs that are absolutely perfect at sorting numbers.	结束时,我得到绝对完美地分类资料的程式。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
In fact, they are programs that are much more efficient than programs I could have ever written by hand.	实际上,这些程式比我手写的任何程式都要有效率。
efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的;
Now if I look at those programs,	现在,如果我读这些程式,
I can't tell you how they work.	我说不出他们怎么工作的。
I've tried looking at them and telling you how they work.	我尝试过阅读并且解释他们如何工作的。
They're obscure , weird programs.	他们很抽象,奇怪。
obscure:n.朦胧; adj.无名的; v.使模糊;
But they do the job.	但是他们能完成任务。
And in fact, I know, I'm very confident that they do the job because they come from a line of hundreds of thousands of programs that did the job.	实际上,我知道,我很有信心他们能完成任务因为他们来自于一行上千万能完成认为的程式。
confident:adj.自信的;确信的;
In fact, their life depended on doing the job.	事实上,他们的生命就是靠着这工作。
(Laughter)	（笑声）
I was riding in a 747 with Marvin Minsky once, and he pulls out this card and says, "Oh look. Look at this.	我曾经有一次和马文明斯基一起坐747, 他拿出一张卡,说,”看,看这。
It says, 'This plane has hundreds of thousands of tiny parts working together to make you a safe flight.'	这上面说“本飞机有很多精密部件协作,保障你飞行安全。”
Doesn't that make you feel confident?"	这是不是让你很有信心？“
(Laughter)	（笑声）
In fact, we know that the engineering process doesn't work very well when it gets complicated.	事实上,我们知道工程过程复杂化并不能很好工作。
engineering:n.工程;工程学;v.密谋策划;设计制造;改变…的基因;(engineer的现在分词)
So we're beginning to depend on computers to do a process that's very different than engineering.	所以我们开始依赖电脑来做与工程有很大不同的一个过程。
different than:不同于;
And it lets us produce things of much more complexity than normal engineering lets us produce.	它能让我们生产出比普通工程能生产的更复杂的东西。
And yet, we don't quite understand the options of it.	然而,我们还不明白他的选择。
options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式)
So in a sense, it's getting ahead of us.	从某种意义上说,它比我们超前。
We're now using those programs to make much faster computers so that we'll be able to run this process much faster.	我们现在正用这些程式创造更快的电脑以便能更快的运行这个进程。
So it's feeding back on itself.	所以它是自我回馈的。
The thing is becoming faster and that's why I think it seems so confusing.	这正变得更快, 这也是为什么我觉得它似乎很让人摸不清。
Because all of these technologies are feeding back on themselves.	由于所有这些技术都回馈到自己。
We're taking off.	我们正在起飞。
And what we are is we're at a point in time which is analogous to when single-celled organisms were turning into multi-celled organisms.	我们正是在时间的某一点, 这一点类似于单细胞机体正转变成多细胞机体的时刻。
So we're the amoebas and we can't quite figure out what the hell this thing is we're creating.	我们就像变形虫。搞不清自己正在创造的是什么东西。
amoebas:n.阿米巴;变形虫(单细胞生物);
We're right at that point of transition.	我们正在转折点上。
But I think that there really is something coming along after us.	不过我认为一定有跟随着我们的东西。
I think it's very haughty of us to think that we're the end product of evolution.	我想它是很崇拜我们的, 认为我们是进化的终极产物。
haughty:adj.傲慢的;自大的; end product:n.最终产品;
And I think all of us here are a part of producing whatever that next thing is.	我认为我们这所有人都是繁衍的一部分, 无论下一步是什么。
So lunch is coming along, and I think I will stop at that point, before I get selected out.	午饭时间快到了, 趁我还没被选走, 我就在这停下。/我想我就在这里结束。
(Applause)	（掌声）

DannyHillis_1994-_回到未来（1994）_