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DanielGoldstein_2011S-_当下的你和未来自我的战争_
Do you remember the story of Odysseus and the Sirens from high school or junior high school ? 还记不记得 高中或是初中时 奧德修斯和塞壬的故事？
Sirens:n.[铁路][船]汽笛,警报器(siren的复数); v.引诱; junior high school:初中;
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home after the Trojan War. 有这么个英雄,奧德修斯 从特洛伊战争返回
Trojan:n.勇士;特洛伊人;勤勉的人;adj.特洛伊的;特洛伊人的;
And he's standing on the deck of his ship, he's talking to his first mate , and he's saying, "Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks, and on those rocks sit some beautiful women called Sirens. 他站在战船的甲板上 和大副说着话 他说: “明天我们驶过那些岩石 岩石上会坐者一群美女 她们是塞壬
deck:n.甲板;舱面;层面;一副(为52张);v.装饰;打扮;布置;用力击倒; first mate:n.(商船的)大副;
And these women sing an enchanting song, a song so alluring that all sailors who hear it crash into the rocks and die." 她们会唱首摄人心魄的歌 会令 听到歌声的水手着迷 船撞上岩石而亡
enchanting:adj.迷人的;使人喜悦的;v.使着迷;使中魔法;(enchant的现在分词) alluring:adj.诱惑的,诱人的;迷人的,吸引人的;
Now you would expect, given that, that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens, but instead Odysseus says, "I want to hear that song. 你会想 既然如此 他们应该另找一条航线避开塞壬 但是奧德修斯说 ”我想听到那首歌
alternate:vi.交替;轮流;vt.使交替;使轮流;adj.交替的;轮流的;n.替换物; route:n.路线;路途;固定线路;途径;v.按某路线发送;
And so what I'm going to do is I'm going to pour wax in the ears of you and all the men -- stay with me -- so that you can't hear the song, and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast so that I can listen and we can all sail by unaffected ." 我会用蜡 把你和其他所有人的 耳朵 都封上－ 这样你们就听不见这歌了 你们把我绑在桅杆上 这样我就能听到歌 并且航行不受影响
pour:v.倒; n.流出; (已熔金属的)一次浇注量; wax:n.蜡; v.给…打蜡; adj.蜡制的; mast:n.桅杆;柱;橡树果实;vt.在…上装桅杆; unaffected:adj.不受影响的;自然的;真挚的;不矫揉造作的;
So this is a captain putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk so that he can hear a song. 这个船长 置全船人的危险于不顾 就为了自己听首歌
And I'd like to think if this was the case, they probably would have rehearsed it a few times. 我想要是这种状况 他们应该事先练习几次
rehearsed:v.排练;排演;默诵;背诵;重复;(rehearse的过去分词和过去式)
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run . 奧德修斯会说:“好,我们试试。
a dry run:摹拟投弹练习;演习;
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead . 你把我绑在桅杆上,我怎么央求
plead:v.申辩;恳求;乞求;(在法庭)认罪;辩护;
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast. 不管说什么你都不要解开绳子
no matter what:不管什么…; untie:v.解开…的结;打开;
All right, so tie me to the mast." 好,现在把我绑上桅杆吧。”
And the first mate takes a rope and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot . 大副取了绳子 把奧德修斯牢牢绑在桅杆上
knot:n.(绳等的)结;节瘤,疙瘩;海里;小时(航速单位);v.打结;
And Odysseus does his best job playacting and says, "Untie me. Untie me. 奧德修斯拼命假装求情 说:“放开我吧。放开我吧。
playacting:n.演戏;假装;v.做作;演戏(playact的ing形式);
I want to hear that song. Untie me." 我想听那首歌。放开我吧。”
And the first mate wisely resists and doesn't untie Odysseus. 大副会很明智地拒绝 不会解开奧德修斯
resists:v.抵制;阻挡;反抗;回击;n.防腐剂;防染剂;
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it. 然后奧德修斯说;“好,你能胜任这个任务。
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner." 好,解开我咱们吃晚饭去。”
And the first mate hesitates . 大副迟疑了
hesitates:vi.踌躇,犹豫;不愿;vt.踌躇,犹豫;有疑虑,不愿意;
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal , or should I untie him?" “我们还在练习呢 还是我就解开绳子呢？”
rehearsal:n.排演;预演;练习;训练;叙述;
And the first mate thinks, "Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end." 大副想 “好吧,排练总有结束的时候”
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out. 他解开奧德修斯,但是奧德修斯大发雷霆
unties:vt.解开;解决;使自由;vi.解开;松开; flips:n.菲力普类(酒的一种);vt.掷;弹;轻击(flip的第三人称单数);
He's like, "You idiot . You moron . “你个蠢货,你个白痴。
idiot:n.笨蛋,傻瓜;白痴; moron:n.傻瓜;痴愚者;笨人;
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead, every single one of the men will be dead. 明天你要这么干,我们都死定了 每个人都死定了
Now just don't untie me no matter what." 不管我说什么都不能解开！”
He throws the first mate to the ground. 他把大副摔倒在地
This repeats itself through the night -- rehearsal, tying to the mast, conning his way out of it, beating the poor first mate up mercilessly . 他们就这么折腾了一夜－ 排练,绑在桅杆上 哄大副解开绳子 毫不留情地殴打大副
conning:v.欺骗,哄骗,诈骗;(con的现在分词) mercilessly:adv.残忍地;毫无慈悲地;
Hilarity ensues . 闹剧就来了
Hilarity:n.欢喜;高兴;欢闹; ensues:vi.跟着发生,接着发生;继起;vt.追求;
Tying yourself to a mast is perhaps the oldest written example of what psychologists call a commitment device . 把自己绑到桅杆上 大概是最早的 心理学家称为承诺手段的书面记录了
psychologists:n.[心理]心理学家(psychologist的复数形式); commitment:n.承诺;投入;保证;许诺; device:n.装置;策略;图案;
A commitment device is a decision that you make with a cool head to bind yourself so that you don't do something regrettable when you have a hot head. 承诺手段是你在冷静状态下 做出的决定来约束自己 以防在冲动之下 做出事后后悔的事情
bind:v.结合;装订;有约束力;过紧;n.捆绑;困境;讨厌的事情;植物的藤蔓; regrettable:adj.令人遗憾的;可惜的;可悲的;抱歉的;
Because there's two heads inside one person when you think about it. 你想想,人内心 有两种状态
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves when it comes to questions of temptation . 当涉及到诱惑的问题时 学者们早就用了两个自我的比喻
Scholars:n.学者们(scholar的复数); invoked:v.叫唤(invoke的过去式,过去分词); metaphor:n.暗喻,隐喻;比喻说法; temptation:n.诱惑;引诱;煽诱人的事物;
There is first, the present self. 第一是当下的自我
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song. 就象是奥德修斯 他一听到这歌
He just wants to get to the front row. 就想去前排占个好位子
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification . 只想着此时此刻和当下的满足
here and now:此时此地;立刻; gratification:n.满意;喜悦;使人满意之事;
But then there's this other self, the future self. 但是另一个自我,未来的自我
This is Odysseus as an old man who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa with his wife Penelope outside of Ithaca -- the other one. 作为一个老人的奥德修斯 他只想在远离伊萨卡的别墅里 和妻子佩罗普过退休生活 这是另一个自我
villa:n.别墅;郊区住宅; Ithaca:n.伊萨卡岛(希腊西部爱奥尼亚海中群岛之一);
So why do we need commitment devices ? 那么为什么我们需要承诺手段呢？
devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数);
Well resisting temptation is hard, as the 19th century English economist 因为诱惑难以抗拒 19世纪的英国经济学家
resisting:adj.稳定的;坚固的;v.抵抗;忍住(resist的现在分词);
Nassau William Senior said, "To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power, or to seek distant rather than immediate results, are among the most painful exertions of the human will." 老纳索威廉姆说 “放弃我们能得到的享受 或者追寻遥远而不是眼下的结果 是人类意志中 最痛苦的事情之一。”
Senior:adj.大;级别(或地位)高的;成人的;高级水平的;n.上级;上司;较…年长的人; abstain:v.(投票时)弃权;戒除;离开;回避; enjoyment:n.享受;乐趣;享有; seek:v.寻求;寻找;谋求; distant:adj.遥远的;远处的;久远的; painful:adj.痛苦的;疼痛的;令人不快的; exertions:n.努力;费力;行使;运用;施加;(exertion的复数)
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people, you probably realize it's not that your goals are physically impossible that's keeping you from achieving them, it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them. 如果你为自己设定目标,并且你跟普通人一样 也许你会意识到 不是定的目标高不可攀 而是缺乏自律 去坚持下来
self-discipline:n.自律;自我修养;自我训练;
It's physically possible to lose weight. 减肥是现实可行的
It's physically possible to exercise more. 增加运动是现实可行的
But resisting temptation is hard. 但是抵抗诱惑 很难
The other reason that it's difficult to resist temptation is because it's an unequal battle between the present self and the future self. 另一个 难以抵抗诱惑的原因是 当下的自我和未来的自我之间 不平等的战争
unequal:adj.不平等的;不规则的;不胜任的;n.不等同的事物;
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present. 当下的自我活在现在
It's in control. It's in power right now. 控制一些
It has these strong, heroic arms that can lift doughnuts into your mouth. 这个自我有强大英勇的胳膊 抓起甜甜圈送到嘴里去
heroic:adj.英雄的;英勇的;记叙英雄及其事迹的;夸张的;n.史诗;英勇行为; doughnuts:n.炸面圈,多纳圈(常含果酱、水果、奶油等);(doughnut的复数)
And the future self is not even around. 而未来的自我都不在场
It's off in the future. It's weak. 它还在远远的未来,没什么力量
It doesn't even have a lawyer present. 它连律师都不在场
There's nobody to stick up for the future self. 没人会为了未来自我而争辩
stick up for:维护,支持;为…辩护;
And so the present self can trounce all over its dreams. 所以当下的自我可以击败 未来的所有梦想
trounce:vt.痛打;严责;打败;
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought, and we need commitment devices to level the playing field between the two. 所以在这两个斗争的自我之间 要有承诺手段 来平衡二者的力量
playing field:n.运动场;操场;
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually. 我很拥护承诺设备
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones such as locking a credit card away with a key or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it or unplugging your Internet connection so you can use your computer. 把自己绑到桅杆上是最古老的一个例子,还有其他的 把信用卡锁起来 不把垃圾食品带回家而减少摄入 断网 来保证使用电脑
credit card:n.[经]信用卡; junk food:垃圾食物;华而不实的东西; unplugging:拔去电源插头;拔去…的塞子;
I was creating commitment devices of my own long before I knew what they were. 在我自己知道承诺手段之前 我就在创造他们了
So when I was a starving post-doc at Columbia University, 当我还是哥伦比亚大学的 苦逼博士后时
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career . 我还在“发表（论文）或淘汰”中挣扎
phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做; career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历;
I had to write five pages a day towards papers or I would have to give up five dollars. 我得为了文章 一天写五页 不然就得丢掉5块钱
And when you try to execute these commitment devices, you realize the devil is really in the details. 当你得执行这些承诺手段的时候 你就意识到了执行的细节太邪恶了
execute:vt.实行;执行;处死; devil:n.魔鬼;撒旦;家伙;恶棍;淘气鬼;冒失鬼;v.虐待,折磨;扯碎;做助手;
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars. 因为要丢掉五块钱不那么容易
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal . 你不能烧了,那是犯法
illegal:adj.不合法的;非法的;n.非法移民;非法劳工;
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity or give it to my wife or something like that. 我想 我可以捐给慈善机构 或者给我老婆,等等
charity:n.慈善;施舍;慈善团体;宽容;施舍物;
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages. 但是转念一想,我这是在混淆视线
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good. 因为不写作是坏事,但慈善是好事
So then I would kind of justify not writing by giving a gift. 这样赠予就把不写作 变得合理了
justify:v.证明合法;整理版面;替…辩护;
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought, well I could give it to the neo-Nazis . 然后我想了想 我可以把它给新纳粹分子
flipped:v.(使)快速翻转;按(开关);轻掷;(flip的过去分词和过去式) neo-Nazis:n.新纳粹分子(neo-Nazi的复数形式);
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good, and so that wouldn't work. 但是,这比不写作更坏 所以这个方法行不通
So ultimately , I just decided 最后我决定
ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究;
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway. 我把它放进信封留到地铁上
envelope:n.信封,封皮;包膜;[天]包层;包迹;
Sometimes a good person would find it, sometimes a bad person would find it. 有时候是好人捡到 有时候是坏人捡到
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money that I would regret. 总的来说 只是没有意义的但是我会后悔的 丢钱行为
pointless:adj.无意义的;钝的;不尖的;不得要领的; exchange:n.交换;交流;交易所;兑换;v.交换;交易;兑换;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Such it is with commitment devices. 这就是承诺手段
But despite my like for them, there's two nagging concerns that I've always had about commitment devices, and you might feel this if you use them yourself. 虽然我很喜欢它 但是对于承诺手段 我仍有两个顾虑 在使用的时候可能会感受到
despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; nagging:adj.纠缠不休的; v.唠叨; (nag的现在分词) concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式);
So the first is, when you've got one of these devices going, such as this contract to write everyday or pay, it's just a constant reminder that you have no self-control . 首先就是 当你使用这些手段的时候 比如说不写就付钱 这只是会不断地提醒自己 没有自控能力
contract:v.收缩;感染;订约;n.合同;婚约; self-control:n.克己,自我控制;
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device, 你只是在告诉自己,“没有承诺手段,
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline." 你会一事无成,你不能自律。”
And then when you're ever in a situation where you don't have a commitment device in place -- like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut, and I have no defense mechanism ," -- you just eat it. 这样在一个 没有承诺手段的情况下－ 比如“天哪,那家伙要给我一个甜甜圈 我可没有防御机制” 你就给吃了
mechanism:n.机制;原理,途径;进程;机械装置;技巧;
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you. 所以我不喜欢承诺手段让我们失去能力
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle . 我想自律就象是肌肉
muscle:n.肌肉;力量;v.加强;使劲搬动;使劲挤出;
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets. 锻炼越多就越强壮
The other problem with commitment devices is that you can always weasel your way out of them. 承诺手段的另一个问题就是 你可以很容易耍滑头就逃过
weasel:vi.逃避;含糊其辞;n.鼬鼠;狡猾的人;
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today, because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews , and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that. 你说:“哎呀,今天写不了啦 我有个TED演讲,还得接受5个媒体访问 然后得去个鸡尾酒晚会 然后我肯定就喝醉了
media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; interviews:n.面试; v.对(某人)进行面试(或面谈); cocktail party:n.鸡尾酒会;
And so there's no way that this is going to work." 所以我今天肯定写不了。”
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate in one person. 这样一来,你就象奥德修斯和大副 二者合一
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself, and you're weaseling your way out of it, and then you're beating yourself up afterwards. 你把自己绑起来 然后耍个手段逃脱了 然后事后就痛打自己
binding:v.结合; n.(书籍的)封皮; adj.必须遵守的; (bind的现在分词) weaseling:vi.逃避;含糊其辞;n.鼬鼠;狡猾的人;
So I've been working for about a decade now on finding other ways to change people's relationship to the future self without using commitment devices. 为了寻找 承诺手段之外的方法 来改善人们 与未来自我的关系 我努力了近十年
In particular , I'm interested in the relationship to the future financial self. 特别地,我对财政意义上的 未来自我关系感兴趣
In particular:尤其,特别; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
And this is a timely issue . 这是时间跨度的话题
timely:adj.及时的;适时的;adv.及时地;早; issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
I'm talking about the topic of saving. 我要说的是就是储蓄
Now saving is a classic two selves problem. 储蓄是个典型的两个自我的问题
classic:n.名著;优秀的典范;adj.最优秀的;第一流的;有代表性的;典型的;
The present self does not want to save at all. 当下的自我完全不想储蓄
It wants to consume . 它要消费
consume:v.消耗;吃;毁灭;烧毁;
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save. 但是未来的自我要现在的自我储蓄
Whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之;
So this is a timely problem. 所以这是个时间跨度的问题
We look at the savings rate and it has been declining since the 1950s. 看看储蓄率 自50年代以来一直下跌
savings:n.节省物;节省;节约;储蓄金;存款;(saving的复数) declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词)
At the same time , the Retirement Risk Index , the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement, has been increasing. 同时,退休风险指数 －在退休时无法有足够的积累 一直在上升
At the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; Retirement:n.退休;退职;退休年龄;退休生活; Index:n.指标;指数;索引;指针;v.做索引;指出;编入索引中;
And we're at a situation now where for every three baby boomers , the McKinsey Global Institute predicts that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs while they're in retirement. 我们现在的状况是 按照麦肯锡全球研究中心预计 婴儿潮的人群里 每三个就有两个无法完成退休前 为退休生活的积累
baby boomers:婴儿潮出生的一代人(babyboomer的名词复数); Global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; Institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院; predicts:vt.预报,预言;预知;vi.作出预言;作预料,作预报;
So what can we do about this? 我们能做些什么呢？
There's a philosopher , Derek Parfit, who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I. 有个哲学家 德瑞克巴菲特 他说了一些话对我和我的合作者很有启发
philosopher:n.哲学家;深思的人;善于思考的人; inspiring:adj.鼓舞人心的;灌输的;v.鼓舞;激发;使感悟;(inspire的现在分词) coauthors:n.共同执笔者,合著者;vt.合著;
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves because of some failure of belief or imagination ." 他说:“我们忽视未来自我 是因为没有信念或缺乏想像。”
neglect:v.忽视;忽略;疏忽;疏于照顾;n.忽视;忽略;未被重视; imagination:n.想象;想象力;创造力;想象的事物;
That is to say , we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old, or we might not be able to imagine that we're going to get old some day. 也就是说 我们不知怎么的不相信自己会变老 或者我们没法想像 有天我们会变老
That is to say:就是;即;换言之; somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地;
On the one hand , it sounds ridiculous . 一方面这听起来很可笑
On the one hand:一方面; ridiculous:adj.可笑的;荒谬的;
Of course, we know that we're going to get old. 当然我们知道自己会变老
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time? 但是有没有可能有些东西我们相信的同时又不相信呢？
So my coauthors and I have used computers, the greatest tool of our time, to assist people's imagination and help them imagine what it might be like to go into the future. 我和我的合作者用电脑 这个时代最伟大的工具 来帮助人们想像 想像未来可能的 样子
And I'll show you some of these tools right here. 在这儿我会展示几个
The first is called the distribution builder . 第一个是“分配生成器”
distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销; builder:n.建筑者;建立者;
It shows people what the future might be like by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes that might be obtained in the future. 可以向人们展示未来可能的状况 它能显示你未来可能取得的 一百种同等概率的结果
probable:adj.很可能的;可信的;n.很可能的事;大有希望的候选者; outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数) obtained:v.获得(obtain的过去分词);
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers , and each sits on a row that represents a level of wealth and retirement. 每一种结果都用这些记号来表示 各排上的每一个单位 代表一定程度的财富和退休期
markers:n.(表示方位的)标记,记号;标识;表示;记号笔;(marker的复数) represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
Being up at the top means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement. 位置越高 也就意味着你可以享受富足的晚年
Being down at the bottom means that you're struggling to make ends meet . 越往下 也就是你得努力糊口
make ends meet:收支相抵;量入为出;
When you make an investment , what you're really saying is, "I accept that any one of these 100 things could happen to me and determine my wealth." 如果你进行投资 如果说你承认 这一百件事 有可能发生在自己身上并最终决定我的财富
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; determine:v.决定;确定;测定;查明;形成;影响;裁决;安排;
Now you can try to move your outcomes around. 你就可以把收入进行分配了
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing, but it costs you something to do it. 你可以象这个人一样修改你的命运 但是是有代价的
manipulate:vt.操纵;操作;巧妙地处理;篡改;
It means that you have to save more today. 也就是说你得在现在储蓄更多
Once you find an investment that you're happy with, what people do is they click "done" 一旦发现了一个感兴趣的投资 你就点击“完成”
and the markers begin to disappear , slowly, one by one . 然后这些记号慢慢得 一个接一个消失
disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在; one by one:一个接一个;
It simulates what it is like to invest in something and to watch that investment pan out. 这就象是投资了什么 然后坐收红利一样
simulates:模拟;模仿;
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing and it will determine our wealth in retirement. 最后将只有一个标记剩下来 这就决定了退休时的财富
Yes, this person retired at 150 percent of their working income in retirement. 这个人 在退休时能有工作收入的百分之一百五十的入帐
They're making more money while retired than they were making while they were working. 他们退休了比工作的时候 挣的钱还要多
If you're like most people, just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy -- just to think about making 50 percent more money in retirement than before. 大多数人 看到这都会有点喜不自禁 一想到自己退休了 能比工作的时候还多挣百分之五十
elation:n.兴高采烈,得意洋洋;
However, had you ended up on the very bottom, it might have given you a slight sense of dread and/or nausea thinking about struggling to get by in retirement. 但是 如果最后的结果是在底部 这应该会让你有点 担心或者不寒而栗 一想到退休了还得挣扎过活的话
slight:adj.轻微的;略微的;细小的;纤细的;n.侮慢;冷落;轻视;v.侮慢;冷落;轻视; dread:n.恐惧;可怕的人(或物);vi.惧怕;担心;vt.惧怕;担心;adj.可怕的; nausea:n.恶心,晕船;极端的憎恶;
By using this tool over and over and simulating outcome after outcome, people can understand that the investments and savings that they undertake today determine their well-being in the future. 通过不停地使用这个工具 来预测未来的结果 人们能够意识到 今天进行的储蓄决定了 明天的生活质量
over and over:反复;再三; simulating:n.模拟;假装; investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数) undertake:v.承担;从事;负责;承诺; well-being:n.幸福;康乐;
Now people are motivated through emotions , but different people find different things motivating . 人们常受情绪而激发 但是激发每个人的事物却往往不一样
motivated:adj.有动机的; v.使产生动机; emotions:n.强烈的感情;激情;情感;(emotion的复数) motivating:v.激励;刺激;调动…的积极性(motivate的ing形式);
This is a simulation that uses graphics , but other people find motivating what money can buy, not just numbers. 这个工具 使用了图片 很多人不大受代表钱的数字而影响 但是钱能买到的东西可以
simulation:n.仿真;模拟;模仿;假装; graphics:n.[测]制图学;制图法;图表算法;
So here I made a distribution builder where instead of showing numerical outcomes, 这个分配生成器 显示的不是数字
numerical:adj.数值的;数字的;用数字表示的(等于numeric);
I show people what those outcomes will get you, in particular apartments that you can afford if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500, 2,000 dollars per month and so on. 而是具体你能买到的东西 比如 你的每个月的退休金能有 三千,两千五,两千的话 这是你买得起的公寓
afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
As you move down the ladder of apartments, you see that they get worse and worse. 随着排名的下降 能看出来质量越来越差
ladder:n.阶梯;途径;梯状物;v.成名;发迹;在…上装设梯子;
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student. 有一些看上去象我作为研究生的时候住过的地方
And as you get to the very bottom, you're faced with the unfortunate reality that if you don't save anything for retirement, you won't be able to afford any housing at all. 而最底下 如果你退休的时候一无所有 那就得面对老无所居的 残酷现实
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments renting for that amount as advertised on the Internet. 这些照片拍的 都是对应价格的 网上实际在售的公寓
advertised:v.做广告;登广告;公布,征聘;展现,宣传(advertise的过去分词和过去式)
The last thing I'll show you, the last behavioral time machine , is something that I created with Hal Hershfield, who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project, 最后一个我想展示的 行为时光机器 是我和哈尔赫施费尔德共同开发的 他是从一个之前项目加入我称为合作者的
behavioral:adj.行为的; time machine:n.时间机器; previous:adj.以前的;早先的;过早的;adv.在先;在…以前;
Bill Sharpe. 也就是“Bill Sharpe”
And what it is is an exploration into virtual reality . 这个工具 提供具象的现实
exploration:n.探索;勘探;探险;[医]探查术; virtual reality:n.(计算机创造的)虚拟现实;
So what we do is we take pictures of people -- in this case, college-age people -- and we use software to age them and show these people what they'll look like when they're 60, 70, 80 years old. 我们拍下用户的照片－ 这个是大学生－ 然后我们用软件模拟衰老 看看当他们六七八十岁的时候 是什么样子
And we try to test whether actually assisting your imagination by looking at the face of your future self can change you investment behavior. 我们试着测试 如果帮助你想像 将来的自己的样子 能不能改变投资行为
So this is one of our experiments. 这是我们的一个试验
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left. 左边是我们测试对象的年轻的脸
He's given a control that allows him to adjust his savings rate. 他可以 调控自己的储蓄率
adjust:v.调整;调节;适应;习惯;
As he moves his savings rate down, it means that he's saving zero when it's all the way here at the left. 当他的储蓄率降低 指针在最左边 意味着储蓄为零
You can see his current annual income -- this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today -- is quite high, 91 percent, but his retirement income is quite low. 他目前的年收入－ 现在他每天能拿到手的钱很多 百分之九十一 但是退休金会很低
annual:n.年报;年鉴;年刊;adj.每年的;年度的;一年的; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; paycheck:n.工资;薪金;工资支票;
He's going to retire on 44 percent of what he earned while he was working. 他的退休金只有工作时 薪水的百分之四十四
If he saves the maximum legal amount, his retirement income goes up, but he's unhappy because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today. 如果现在提高到法定的储蓄上限 他的退休金就上升 但是他现在 就无钱可花而会过得不快乐
maximum:n.最大限度;最大量;最高限度;adj.最高的;最多的;最大极限的; left-hand:adj.左手的;左侧的;
Other conditions show people the future self. 还有其他的状况来展现未来的情形
And from the future self's point of view , everything is in reverse . 从未来的角度来看,一切都是相反的
point of view:观点;见地;立场; reverse:n.反面; v.颠倒; adj.相反的;
If you save very little, the future self is unhappy living on 44 percent of the income. 如果储蓄很少 未来靠收入的百分之四十 生活就会很不爽快
Whereas if the present self saves a lot, the future self is delighted , where the income is close up near 100 percent. 如果现在多储蓄一点 未来就会好过很多 因为退休金几乎和工作的收入一样多
delighted:adj.高兴的; v.使高兴; (delight的过去分词和过去式)
To bring this to a wider audience, 为了推广这个概念
I've been working with Hal and Allianz to create something we call the behavioral time machine, in which you not only get to see yourself in the future, but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions to different levels of retirement wealth. 我和哈尔以及安莲兹 开发出了行为学时间机器 这个软件不仅让你看到未来 也可以看到你未来会根据退休收入的不同 而有各种层次的情绪反应
anticipated:adj.预期的; v.预期; (anticipate的过去式和过去分词) emotional:adj.情绪的;易激动的;感动人的; reactions:n.反应;回应;抗拒;生理反应;副作用(reaction的复数)
So for instance , here is somebody using the tool. 比如说 有人用这个工具
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例;
And just watch the facial expressions as they move the slider . 移动光标 查看面部表情
facial:adj.面部的,表面的;脸的,面部用的;n.美容,美颜;脸部按摩; expressions:表达,表情(expression的复数) slider:n.滑动器;滑雪者;会滚动之物;
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing. 年轻的脸越来越开心,但没有零星储蓄
The older face is miserable . 而老年的年就愁容满面
miserable:adj.悲惨的;痛苦的;卑鄙的;
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate. 如果转换到中等的储蓄率
moderate:v.缓和; adj.适度的; n.持温和观点者(尤指政见);
And then it's a high savings rate. 然后是高储蓄率
The younger face is getting unhappy. 年轻时候的脸笑容越来越淡
The older face is quite pleased with the decision. 年老的脸则随之 变的开心
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do. 我们以此来看看人们是否会对此反应
And what's nice about it is it's not something that biasing people actually, because as one face smiles, the other face frowns . 它的好处是 它并不会左右人们的想法 因为一侧的脸在笑 而另一侧脸就在愁
biasing:n.偏见; v.偏; adj.斜的; v.使偏向一方; (bias的现在分词); frowns:v.皱眉;蹙额;(frown的第三人称单数)
It's not telling you which way to put the slider, it's just reminding you that you are connected to and legally tied to this future self. 它并不指手画脚说选择哪一边 只是提醒你 对自己的未来负责的人 就是自己
reminding:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的现在分词)
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being. 你现在的选择就决定了将来的生活
And that's something that's easy to forget. 而这一点是我们很容易忘记的
This use of virtual reality is not just good for making people look older. 这种可视化现实 不仅能显示年老的样子
There are programs you can get to see how people might look if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun, if they gain weight and so on. 还可以看看 如果抽烟 暴晒、或者增肥的话 将来会是什么样子
exposure:n.暴露;显露;揭露;面临;
And what's good is, unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith, you don't have to program these by yourself in order to see the virtual reality. 它的好处是 我、哈尔和罗斯?史密斯的试验得自己写程序 你可以不用这么大费周章 想看到未来
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars that do the same thing. 只要用智能手机下载几美元的应用程度 就可以了
smartphones:智能手机(smartphone的复数);
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor. 这是我的合作者哈尔的照片
You might recognize him from the previous demos . 也许能从之前的演示里认出他来
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; demos:n.民众;人民;游行;录音样带(demo的复数形式);
And just for kicks we ran his picture through the balding , aging and weight gain software to see how he would look. 我们把他的照片弄来恶搞 用软件看看要是他秃顶、老了还变胖了 会是个什么样子
balding:adj.变秃的;v.变秃(bald的ing形式);
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself to disabuse you of that last image. 哈尔也在场,所以为了他,也为了在场各位观众 我就不再滥用这个照片了
owe:v.归功于;欠(债);欠(账);欠(情) as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且; disabuse:vt.使省悟;解迷惑;释疑;矫正;
And I'll close it there. 今天就到这里结束
On behalf of Hal and myself, 我代表哈尔和自己
On behalf of:代表;为了;
I wish all the best to your present and future selves. 给各位和将来的各位最好的祝福
Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) （掌声）