ChrisAnderson.2004-.技术的长尾.；TED演讲稿

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ChrisAnderson_2004-_技术的长尾_
I'd like to speak about technology trends , which is something that many of you follow -- but we also follow, for related reasons.	我想谈谈技术的发展趋势。那是你们很多人关注的问题我们因为相关的原因也关注它。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
Obviously, being a technology magazine, technology trends are something that we write about and need to know about.	显然,做为技术杂志, 技术趋势是我们需要撰写和了解的东西。
But also it's part of being any monthly magazine -- you live in the future. And we have a long lead time .	但是和所有月刊一样, 你们读者生活在未来。所以我们需要提前准备。
monthly:n.月刊:adv.每个月:每月一次:adj.每月的: lead time:n.从投产至完成生产间相隔的时间;订货交付时间;
We have to plan issues many months in advance , we have to guess at what public appetites are going to be six months, nine months down the road . So we're in the forecasting business.	我们每一期杂志都是几个月前就需要准备, 我们需要揣测六个月以后公众的阅读口味, 甚至九个月以后的。所以我们做的是预报工作。
issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) in advance:adv.预先,提前; appetites:n.食欲;胃口;强烈欲望;(appetite的复数) down the road:只要沿着这条路;将来;在路上; forecasting:n.预测;v.预言;作预告(forecast的ing形式);
We also, like a lot of companies, create a product that's based on technology trends.	我们也和其他公司一样,创造产品那是建立在技术走势的基础上的产品
In this case, ours is about ideas and information, and, if we're lucky, some entertainment. But the concept's quite the same.	在这种情况下, 我们的产品是思想和信息,如果幸运的话还有一些娱乐,但是概念是一样的。
And so we have to understand not only why tech's important, where it's going, but also, very importantly, when -- the timing is everything.	所以我们需要了解不但为什么某些技术是重要的,它们朝哪个方向发展更重要的是,什么时候 ─ 时间就是一切
And it's interesting, when you look at the predictions made during the peak of the boom in the 1990s, about e-commerce , or internet traffic, or broadband adoption , or internet advertising , they were all right -- they were just wrong in time.	有趣的是,当你回顾一些预言那些在90年代技术爆炸高潮期关于电子商务的预言或者有关互联网流量,宽带使用和网络广告的预言他们都是正确的,只不过预言的时间不对
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的; boom:n.繁荣;吊杆;v.激增;繁荣昌盛;轰鸣;轰响;adj.(美)猛涨起来的; e-commerce:n.电子商务; broadband:n.宽频;宽波段;adj.宽频带的;宽波段的;宽频通讯的; adoption:n.采用;收养;接受; advertising:n.做广告;广告业;广告活动;v.做广告;(advertise的现在分词)
Almost every one of those has come true just a few years later.	而且几乎所有这些都在几年以后成为现实。
But the difference of a few years on stock-market valuations is obviously extreme . And that's why timing is everything.	但是几年时间在股票市场价值上造成的差异显然是巨大的。所以说时间就是一切。
valuations:[经管]估价;定价(valuation的复数); extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物;
You've probably seen something like this before.	你以前很可能也见过这个。
This is the classic Gartner Hype Curve , which talks about kind of the trajectory of a technology's lifespan .	这是经典的Gartner Hype曲线,讲述了技术生命周期的轨迹
classic:n.名著;优秀的典范;adj.最优秀的;第一流的;有代表性的;典型的; Hype:n.大肆宣传;皮下注射;vt.大肆宣传;使…兴奋; Curve:n.曲线;弯曲;曲面;弧线;v.(使)沿曲线移动;呈曲线形; trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道; lifespan:n.寿命;预期生命期限;预期使用期限;
And just for fun, we put a bunch of technologies on it, to show whether they were kind of rising for the first high peak, or whether they were about to crash into the trough of disillusionment , or rise back in the slope of enlightenment , or -- et cetera .	为了好玩,我们在上面放过很多技术来展示它们是正在迎接第一个高峰来临的上升期还是将要毁灭, 跌入低谷期, 或是回到攀升期,徘徊期
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); were about to:眼看就要;即将;正要;行将; trough:n.水槽,水槽;低谷期;饲料槽;低气压; disillusionment:n.幻灭;醒悟; slope:n.斜坡;坡度;坡地;山坡;v.倾斜;有坡度;悄悄地走;潜行; enlightenment:n.启迪;启蒙运动;教化; et cetera:na.以及其他;
And this is one way to do technology forecasting; get a sense of where technology is, and then anticipate the next upturn .	这是预测技术走势的一种方法,估算一下技术在哪里,然后预见下一个转机
anticipate:v.预期,期望;占先,抢先;提前使用; upturn:n.情况好转;vt.使…转朝上;翻转;vi.向上;
We tend to do any technology that we think is sufficiently important, we'll typically do it twice. Once, we want to do it first.	我们倾向于分析任何我们认为足够重要的技术我们通常做两次,第一次是为了抢先
sufficiently:adv.充分地;足够地; typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地;
We want to be the first to do it, for the geeks who appreciate that, we'll catch it right there at the technology-trigger.	第一次是为那些喜欢获取这些信息的奇客而做, 我们会在萌芽期抓住了这些新技术。
geeks:n.奇葩(指反常的人,畸形人,野人,现也指智力超群,善于钻研但不懂与人交往的学者或知识分子); appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解;
You can see in 1997, we put Linux on the cover.	你们可以看到我们把 Linux 放在了1997的封面上
Linux:n.Linux操作系统(一种类似于UNIX的计算机操作系统);
But then it comes back. And sufficiently big technologies are going to hit the mainstream , and they're going to burst out.	然而它们又会回来。任何重大技术都会进入主流,然后爆发。
mainstream:n.主流; burst:v.破裂;爆炸;突破;冲进;n.爆发;点射;释放;(情感的)迸发;
And then it's time to do it again. Last year.	所以去年, 就是再做一次的好时机
And that's one way that we try to time technology trends.	这就是我们为技术趋势计时的一种办法。
I'd like to talk about a way of thinking about technology trends that I call my grand unified theory of predicting the future, but it's closer to a petite unified theory of predicting the future.	我还想说说怎样思考技术趋势。我可以将之称为预言未来的宏大统一理论, 但是其实它更接近预言未来的袖珍统一理论。
grand unified theory:n.大统一理论(试图解释亚原子粒子的所有活动方式的单一理论); predicting:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的现在分词)
It's based on the presumption , the observation even, that all important technologies go through four stages in their life -- at least one of the four stages, sometimes all four of the stages.	它是基于假定甚至观察。那就是: 所有的重要技术都经历过四个阶段-- 至少四个中的一个阶段,有时是所有四个阶段。
presumption:n.放肆,傲慢;推测; observation:n.观察;观测;监视;(尤指据所见、所闻、所读而作的)评论;
And at each one of these stages, can be seen as a collision -- a collision with something else -- for example, a critical price-line that changes both the technology and also changes its effect on the world. It's an inflection point.	而其中的每个阶段都可以被看做一次撞击。一次与其他的事物的撞击-- 比如,一个临界价格线会改变技术和它对世界的影响。它是一个转变的契机。
collision:n.抵触;碰撞(或相撞)事故; critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的; inflection:n.弯曲,变形;音调变化;
And these are the inflection points that tell you what the next chapter in that technology's life is going to be, and maybe how you can do something about it.	这些契机会告诉你这项技术的下一个篇章是什么, 以及你可以对它做些什么。
The first is the critical price.	第一阶段就是临界价格
The first stage in a technology's advance is that it'll fall below a critical price.	技术发展的第一个阶段是它的价格降到临界价格以下。
After it falls below a critical price, it will tend, if it's successful, to rise above a critical mass , a penetration .	当它低于临界价格后, 如果它是一种成功的技术, 就会超越临界量, 形成突破。
critical mass:n.(核链式反应的)临界质量; penetration:n.渗透;突破;侵入;洞察力;
Many technologies, at that point, displace another technology, and that's another important point.	很多技术在各这个时候就取代了另一个技术, 这也是另外一个重点。
displace:vt.取代;置换;转移;把…免职;排水;
And then finally , a lot of technologies commoditize.	最终,很多技术商品化了。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
Towards the end of their life, they become nearly free.	接近它们生命周期的尾声时,它们就几乎成了免费的了。
Each one of those is an opportunity to do something about it; it's an opportunity for the technology to change.	这其中, 每个阶段都提供了机会给我们。它是一种技术转折的机会。
And even if you missed, you know, the first boom of Wi-Fi -- you know, Wi-Fi did the critical price, it did the critical mass, but hasn't done displacement yet, and hasn't done free yet -- there's still more opportunity in that.	即便是你错过了第一阶段,比如第一波 Wi-Fi 热潮你知道,Wi-Fi经历了临界价格和临界量两个阶段但是它还完成取代阶段,更还没去到免费的阶段 ─ 所以其中还有机会。
Wi-Fi:abbr.无线保真技术(wirelessfidelity);无线上网技术; displacement:n.取代,位移;[船]排水量;
I'd like to demonstrate what I mean by this by telling the story of the DVD, which is a technology which has done all of these.	我想用DVD的故事来说明我想表达的意思。因为这个技术已经经历了所有这些阶段。
demonstrate:vt.证明;展示;论证;vi.示威;
The DVD, as you know, was introduced in the mid-1990s and it was quite expensive. But you can see that by 1998, it had fallen below $400, and $400 was a psychological threshold .	众所周知,DVD 在九十年代中期开始进入市场。那时它还很贵。但是到了1998年, 它的价格跌到了400美元以下,400美元是个关键的心理价位,
psychological:adj.心理的;心理学的;精神上的; threshold:n.入口;门槛;开始;极限;临界值;
And it started to take off. And you can see that the units started to trend up, the hidden inflection point, it was taking off.	于是它开始腾飞了,你们可以看见产品销量呈上升趋势,这是一个潜在的转折点,从此迅速上升。
The next thing it hit, a year later, was critical mass. In this case, 20 percent is often a good proxy for critical mass in a household .	一年以后,它进入下一个阶段,也就是临界量。通常,20% 的家庭拥有量是技术达到临界量的一个合理标志。
proxy:n.代理人;委托书;代用品; household:n.家庭;一家人;同住一所(或一套)房子的人;adj.家庭的;家常的;王室的;
And what's interesting here is that something else took off along with it -- home-theater units.	有趣的是另一个随之腾飞的是家庭影院设备
Suddenly you have a DVD in the house, you've got high-quality digital video, you have a reason to have a big-screen television, you have a reason for Dolby 5.1 surround-sound .	突然你家里有了DVD 你有了高质量的数字化视频图象, 你也就有了购买大屏幕电视的理由有了购买杜比 5.1 环绕立体声系统的理由。
high-quality:adj.高质量的; digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键; surround-sound:n.[主英国英语][常用作定语]环绕立体声;
And maybe you have reasons for starting to connect them, and bring the rest of your entertainment in.	你也有了把它们连在一起并也连接起其他娱乐设备的理由。
What's interesting also, is note that Netflix was founded in 1999.	有趣的是,Netflix 是1999 年成立的。
Netflix:n.网飞公司(出租DVD;在线观看电影的网站。);
Reed Hastings is here. He clearly saw that that was a moment, that was an inflection point, that he could do something with.	Reed Hastings 今天也在这里。他当时清楚地看到了这一刻, 认识到这是他可以有所作为的转折点,
Reed:n.芦笛;[植]芦苇;芦苇杆;[乐]舌簧;
The next phase it hit was displacement.	下一个阶段就是取代,
phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做;
You can see around 2001, it finally out-sold the VCR.	你们可以看到,到了2001年,它的销售量超越了录像机
And here too, you can see the implications in the world at large.	从这里,你可以纵观这在全球的影响
implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数);
Netflix was right -- the Netflix model could capitalize on the DVD in a way that the video-rental stores couldn't.	Netflix 是对的,Netflix 可以用一种录像出租店无法做到的模式来经营DVD。
capitalize on:利用;
Among the DVD's many assets is that it's very small, you can stick it in the mailer, and post it cheaply.	DVD众多的特点之一就是它很小你可以把它放在信件里,很便宜地邮寄。
assets:n.资产;宝贵的人材;(一项)财物;资产;(asset的名词复数)
That gave an advantage; that was an implication of the technology's rise that wasn't obvious to everybody.	这就提供了优势;这种技术崛起的含义并不是那么显而易见的。
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的;
And then finally, DVDs are approaching free.	最后呢,DVD机几乎接近免费。
approaching:v.靠近,接近;接洽;建议;要求;(approach的现在分词)
There's a company called Apex , a no-name Chinese firm, who has, several times in the past year, been the number-one	有一个叫Apex的公司,一个默默无闻的中国公司。在过去的几年里,已经好几次成了DVD
Apex:n.顶点;尖端;
DVD seller in America. Their average price, for last year, was 48 dollars.	在美国销售的大户。去年它们的平均价格是48美元。
You're aware of the perhaps apocryphal Wal-Mart stampede over the 30-dollar DVD.	你大概也知道沃尔玛曾用难以置信的 30美元的低价DVD机来吸引大促销时的狂潮。
apocryphal:adj.伪的;可疑的; Wal-Mart:n.沃尔玛; stampede:n.奔逃,蜂拥;狂奔;风气;v.狂奔,涌向;使仓促行事
But they're getting very, very cheap, and look at the interesting implication of it. As they get cheaper, the premium brands , the Sonys and such, are losing market share , and the no-names, the Apexes, are gaining them.	但是,它们的确变得非常便宜。结果呢,当它们变得更为便宜, 高档的品牌,比如Sony, 就失去了市场份额, 而无名的Apex们,则会获取这些市场份额。
premium:n.额外费用;奖金;保险费;(商)溢价;adj.高价的;优质的; brands:n.品牌;烙印(brand的复数);v.加商标于;铭刻于(brand的第三人称单数); market share:n.[商]市场份额;市场占有率;
They're being commodified, and that's what happens when things go to zero. It's a tough market out there.	它们被商品化了,这就是当事物触及最低点时会发生的事情。市场竞争是残酷的。
(Laughter)	（笑声）
Now they've introduced these four ways of looking at technology; these four stages of technology's life.	现在,介绍了看待技术的四种方法: 技术的四个发展阶段。
I'd like to talk about some other technologies out there, just technologies on our radar -- and I'll use this lens , these four, as a way to kind of tell you where each one of those technologies is in its development.	我再想说一下另外一些技术, 我们一直关注的一些技术,我将用这个视角, 这四个发展阶段,来告诉你每一种技术在发展的哪个阶段。
radar:n.雷达; lens:n.透镜,镜头;晶状体;隐形眼镜;汽车的灯玻璃;v.给…摄影;
They're not necessarily the top-10 technologies out there -- they're just examples of technologies that are in each one of these periods.	它们不一定是最顶尖的前10种技术它们只是正处于其中一种阶段的例子。
necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地;
But I think that the implications of them approaching these crossovers , these intersections , is interesting to think about.	但是我觉得琢磨它们的走向这些十字路口,这些转折的交叉口,是很有趣味的。
crossovers:[声]交叉,穿过,跨越(crossover的复数); intersections:n.交集,交叉点(intersection的复数形式);[交]十字路口;
Start with gene sequencing .	先从基因测序说起
gene:n.基因;遗传基因;遗传因子; sequencing:n.[计]排序; v.[计]定序(sequence的ing形式);
As you probably know, gene sequencing -- in a large part, because it's built on computers -- is falling in price at a kind of a Moore's Law-like level.	如你所知,大部分的基因测序是在计算机上做的,因此价格正在象摩尔定义预测的那样下跌
It is now possible -- will be possible, and if Craig Venter indeed comes today, he may tell you something about this -- to sequence the human genome for 40 million dollars by the end of this year.	现在这已经是可能的 ─ 将是可能的, 如果 Craig Venter 今天来了的话他会告诉你到今年年底,只要4千万美元就可以完成人类基因排序
Venter:n.腹部;腹面;母; sequence:n.顺序; v.按顺序排列; genome:n.基因组;染色体组;
That's as opposed to billions just a few years ago.	在几年前,这需要几十亿。
opposed:adj.强烈反对; v.反对(计划、政策等); (oppose的过去分词和过去式)
You know, our ability to capture the tools of creation are getting closer and closer.	你们知道,我们已经越来越接近掌握创造天地万物的工具
capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获 creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物;
What's interesting is that at the same time , the number of genes that we're discovering are rising very quickly.	有趣的是,我们发现的基因数量也迅速地增长
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; genes:n.基因;(gene的复数)
Each one of these genes has potential diagnostic test.	每一种基因都有诊断试验的潜力。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; diagnostic:adj.诊断的;特征的;n.诊断法;诊断结论;
There will come a day when you can have hundreds of thousands of tests done, very cheaply, if you want to know. You can learn about your own mosaic .	终有一天当成千上万的试验可以很廉价地完成时, 如果你感兴趣,你可以了解你的基因镶嵌。
mosaic:adj.摩西的;拼成的;嵌花式的;n.马赛克;镶嵌;镶嵌细工;
Here's another technology that's approaching a critical price.	这里是另一个技术接近临界价值的例子。
This is a fascinating research from WHO that shows the effect of generic drugs on anti-retroviral drug compounds and cocktails .	一个世界卫生组织令人惊喜的研究展现了非专利药对治疗艾滋病的抗逆转录病毒复合药和鸡尾酒药的影响。
fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词) generic:adj.类的;一般的;属的;非商标的; anti-retroviral:抗逆转录病毒的; compounds:n.混合物,化合物;大院(compound的复数形式); cocktails:n.鸡尾酒;凉菜;混合物;(cocktail的复数)
In January 2000, the price was 10,000 dollars, or 27 dollars a day.	2000年1月时,它的价格是1万美元,也就是27美元一天
The generics came in, first in Brazil and elsewhere , and the effect was just dramatic on pricing.	非专利药最先是从巴西引进的, 它对价格的影响是引入注目的,
generics:n.非专利药物;通用术语(generic的复数); Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); elsewhere:adv.在别处;到别处; dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的;
Today it's less than 50 cents a day.	今天它的价格已经是低于50美分一天。
And what's interesting is if you look at the price elasticity , if you look at the correlation between these two, as the anti-retrovirals come down, the number of people you can treat	最有意思的是,如果你观察价格弹性, 如果你观察两者的相互关系, 抗逆转录病药的价格下降,能够得到治疗
elasticity:n.弹性;弹力;灵活性; correlation:n.[数]相关,关联;相互关系; anti-retrovirals:抗反转錄病毒药物; treat:v.治疗;处理;招待;款待;n.款待;乐事;乐趣;
goes radically up. And the Clinton Foundation and WHO believe that they can treat three million people worldwide by 2005 -- two million in sub-Saharan Africa.	的人数就急剧上升。克林顿基金会和世界卫生组织相信到2005年他们可以给全世界3百万人提供治疗-- 其中2百万在撒哈拉以南的非洲
radically:adv.根本上;彻底地;以激进的方式; Foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立; worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地; sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区;
And the falling price of drugs has a lot to do with that.	药价的降低对这起到了很大的作用。
Linux is another good example.	Linux 是另外一个例子。
Now we've switched to critical mass.	现在我们换过来讲临界量。
These are now technologies that are hitting critical mass.	有一些技术现在正即将到达临界量。
If you look here, here's Linux in red, and it's hit 20 percent.	你看这里,Linux是红色的,它到达了20%,
Interestingly , it's done a crossover before, but not the crossovers that matter.	有趣的是,它们以前也交叉过, 但是那个交叉并不重要,
Interestingly:adv.有趣地;
The crossover that's going to matter is the one with the blue.	重要的是和蓝线的交叉。
But you can look and see the direction those lines are going, you can see that at the 20 percent, it's now taken seriously.	但是你可以看见这些曲线的走向你可以看见到了20%,它就显得像模像样了。
It's not just for the geeks any more.	它不再只是奇客专用的了
That is, I imagine, what people in Redmond wake up in the middle of the night thinking about.	我想,这就是让在Redmond的人们半夜里辗转难眠的问题。
(Laughter)	（笑声）
Another technology that we see all around us out here is hybrid cars.	另外一个在我们身边存在的技术是混合动力轿车。
hybrid:n.杂种,混血儿;混合物;adj.混合的;杂种的;
I don't know whether anybody has a Prius 2004, but they're fantastic .	我不知道你们中间谁有2004年的Prius车,它们真很不错。
Prius:adj.在前的(处方用语); fantastic:奇异的,空想的
And if you look at the trends here, by about 2008 -- and I don't think this is a crazy forecast -- they'll be two percent of auto sales.	你们看看这里的趋势:到2008年, 我觉得这并不是什么疯狂的预测, 它们会占到汽车销售的百分之二。
auto:n.汽车;v.坐汽车;
Two percent isn't 20 percent, but in the car business, which is slow moving, that's huge; that's arrival.	百分之二虽然不是百分之二十,但是对于进程缓慢的汽车行业, 这就是巨大的发展,而它正在降临。
At two percent, you start seeing them on the roads everywhere.	到达百分之二后,它们会在路上随处可见。
And what's interesting about the hybrids taking off is you've now introduced electric motors to the automobile industry.	而关于混合动力轿车的腾飞最有意思的是人们将电动马达引入了汽车工业。
hybrids:n.杂交(hybrid的复数形式);混血;混合物; electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的; automobile:n.汽车;v.开汽车;坐汽车;adj.自动的;
It's the first radical change in automobile technology in 100 years.	这是100年来汽车工业技术的首要重大改变。
And once you have electric motors, you can do anything: you can change the structure of the car in any way you want.	而有了电动马达以后,你可以做任何事情: 你可以随意地改变汽车的构造
structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造;
You can have regenerative braking, you can have drive-by-wire, you can have replaceable body shapes -- it's a little thing that starts with a hybrid, but it can lead to a whole new era of the car.	你可以做再生制动,你可以做电传线控, 你可以做可替换的车身 ─ 从混合动力轿车这一小事开始, 它会引导汽车业走向一个新的时代。
regenerative:adj.再生的,更生的;更新的; replaceable:adj.可替换的;可置换的;可放在原处的;
Voice Over IP is something you may have heard something about.	你也许听说过在IP网上传输话音
Again, it's kind of coming out of nowhere , it's a little hard to use right now.	这又是一个不知从哪儿冒出来的东西, 现在还不太好用。
nowhere:v.无处; n.无处; adj.不存在的;
There's a company created by the Kazaa founders called Skype .	Kazza 的创始人建立了一个公司叫 Skype。
founders:n.创办人;造物者(founder的复数); Skype:n.网络电话(一个网络语音沟通工具);
Look at these numbers. They launched it in August of last year; they already have nearly four million registered users -- that's critical mass.	来看一下数字,他们是去年8月启动的, 现在已经有了4百万注册用户。这就是临界量。
launched:v.发射;发起;开展;开始;(launch的过去式和过去分词) registered:adj.登记过的;记名的;挂号的;v.登记;注册;(register的过去式和过去分词)
And the same thing's happening on the carrier side.	同样的事情在电讯公司也发生了
You're looking at IP taking over from some of the traditional telecom standards . This is a tipping point -- if Malcolm's here, forgive me -- and it's going to change the economics, and the speed, and the players in the industry; it's going to look a little bit like that.	你可以看到IP正在取代传统的电讯标准,这是一个引爆点如果 Malcom 在这里的话,请原谅我,这将会改变这个行业的经济模式,速度,和玩家。这个看上去有点象那样的情况。
traditional:传统的,惯例的, telecom:n.电信,远距通信;电讯; standards:n.标准,水平,规格(standard的复数) tipping point:n.(个案积累终成大趋势的)引爆点; forgive:v.原谅;免除(债务,义务等);
And finally, free. Free is really, really interesting.	最终,免费。免费是真的非常非常有意思。
Free is something that comes with digital, because the reproduction costs are essentially free. It comes with IP, because it's such an efficient protocol . It comes with fiber-optics , because there's so much bandwidth .	免费是随数字化而产生的因为复制的成本基本上是免费的,免费随着IP而来, 因为这是一个非常有效的协议。免费从光纤技术而来, 因为它带来了那么多的带宽。
reproduction:n.繁殖,生殖;复制;复制品; essentially:adv.本质上;本来; efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的; protocol:n.协议;草案;礼仪;vt.拟定;vi.拟定; fiber-optics:n.光导纤维; bandwidth:n.[电子][物]带宽;[通信]频带宽度;
Free is really, you know, the gift of Silicon Valley to the world.	你要知道,免费才是硅谷带给世界的礼物。
Silicon Valley:n.硅谷(美国加利福尼亚州一处计算机和电子公司聚集地,有时用以指任何计算机公司聚集地);
It's an economic force, it's a technical force.	这是一股经济力量,也是一股技术力量。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
It's a deflationary force, if not handled right.	如果处理不当, 还会是一股通缩力量。
deflationary:adj.通货紧缩的;
It is abundance , as opposed to scarcity .	这是一种丰盛而不是稀缺。
abundance:n.丰度;丰富;大量;富足; scarcity:n.不足;缺乏;
Free is probably the most interesting thing.	免费大概是最有意思的事情。
And here you have just the number of songs can be stored on a hard drive .	这是你在一个硬盘上能储存的歌曲的数量。
hard drive:n.硬盘驱动器;
You know, there could be a film's [unclear] there, but it's basically , every song ever made could be stored on 400 dollars worth of storage by 2008. It takes that entire element , the physical element , of songs off the table.	你知道那还可以用来存电影[此处不清], 说到底,到2008年,这世界上所有的歌都可以被储存在一个价值400美元的存储器里。所以,用来储存歌曲, 的物理要素已经可以忽略不计了。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; element:n.元素;要素;原理;成分;自然环境; physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查;
And you've seen the numbers.	你也看过这些数字了。
I mean, you know, the music industry is imploding in front of our very eyes, and Hollywood's worried as well.	我的意思是说,整个音乐界正在垮掉, 就在我们眼皮底下, 好莱坞也很担心。
imploding:adj.爆聚的;v.爆聚(implode的ing形式);
They're facing a force that they haven't faced before.	他们正在面临一种前所未有的压力。
And their response is draconian , and not necessarily the one that's going to get them out of this.	而他们的反映是苛刻的,但那并不能把他们从中解救出来。
response:n.响应;反应;回答; draconian:adj.严厉的,苛刻的;
And finally, I'll give you one last example of free -- perhaps the most powerful of all. I mentioned fiber optics: their abundancy tends to make things free.	最后,我再给你们一个免费的例子也是最有力量的一个。我提到过光纤: 他们的繁荣会很多东西变得免费。
This is the price of a phone call to India per minute.	这是打到印度的国际长途每分钟的价格,
And what's interesting is that it was just 1990 when it was more than two dollars a minute.	有趣的是,这是1990年的价格, 那时的价格是每分钟两块多美元。
India still has a regulated phone system and so did we.	印度和我们一样有常规的电话系统
regulated:v.约束,控制,管理;(regulate的过去式和过去分词)
It was surprisingly non-innovative, moved very slowly, but then there was just so much fiber out there, you couldn't hold back , and look how quickly the price fell.	它令人吃惊地缺乏创造力,发展缓慢然而因为光纤多得到处都是了你想不发展也不行,所以你看价格跌得非常快。
surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地 hold back:n.滞留;
It's seven cents a minute, in many cases.	通常现在是7美分一分钟了
And the consequence of cheap phone calling, free phone calling, to India, is the pissed-off programmer, is the outsourcing .	而便宜电话费甚至免费电话引发的结果呢是怨气冲天的计算机程序员,是工作外包,
consequence:n.结果;重要性;推论; outsourcing:n.外包;外购;外部采办;
It is probably one of the most dramatic shifts in globalization , and one of the most powerful economic tools that we're seeing in our world today.	这大概是全球化中最戏剧性的转变, 也是如今我们世界上最有力的经济工具。
shifts:n.转移; v.转移; (shift的第三人称单数) globalization:n.全球化;
The force of India, and then China, and any other country that can contact our markets and will work with our companies -- because the communications are free -- is just beginning to be felt.	印度,中国,和任何其他国家的人都可以联络我们的市场。通讯免费使得他们可以和我们的公司合作 ─ 这股影响力才刚刚被我们所知。
contact:n.接触,联系;v.使接触,联系;
And I think that's probably one of the most important technology trends that we're looking at today.	而我认为,这也许就是我们今天应该关注的最重要的技术趋势。
Thank you.	谢谢。

ChrisAnderson_2004-_技术的长尾_