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CharlesRobertson_2013G-_非洲的下一次繁荣_
Africa is booming . 非洲正在蓬勃发展。
booming:adj.兴旺的,繁荣的;大受欢迎的;v.兴旺(boom的现在分词);发出隆隆声;
Per capita incomes since the year 2000 have doubled, and this boom is impacting on everyone. 人均收入自2000年以来 已经翻了一番, 而这种发展正在影响着所有人。
Per capita:adj.每人的;人均的; impacting:[力]冲击;[力]撞击;[物]碰撞(impact的现在分词);
Life expectancy has increased by one year every three years for the last decade. 在过去的十年里,人均寿命 以每三年增加一年的速度递增着。 在过去的十年里,人均寿命 以每三年增加一年的速度递增着。
Life expectancy:预期寿命;
That means if an African child is born today, rather than three days ago, they will get an extra day of life at the end of their lifespan . 这意味着今天出生的一个非洲孩子, 比起三天前出生的, 会最终多活一天。 会最终多活一天。
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外: lifespan:n.寿命;预期生命期限;预期使用期限;
It's that quick. 就是这么快。
And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent: 600,000 less people a year are getting HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. 艾滋病的感染率也下降了27％: 在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,每年得病的人数减少了60万。 在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,每年得病的人数减少了60万。
HIV:n.艾滋病病毒; infection:n.感染;传染;(身体某部位的)感染;传染病; sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区;
The battle against malaria is being won, with deaths from malaria down 27 percent, according to the latest World Bank data. 与疟疾的战斗正在取得胜利, 根据最新的世界银行的数据, 得疟疾的人数已经下降了27％。 根据最新的世界银行的数据, 得疟疾的人数已经下降了27％。
malaria:n.[内科]疟疾;瘴气; according to:根据,据说; World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构);
And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that. 而用于防止疟疾的蚊帐起到了很大的作用。
This shouldn't surprise us, because actually, everybody grows. 我们不应该对此感到惊讶, 因为,实际上,所有人都在发展。
If you go back to Imperial Rome in the Year 1 A.D., there was admittedly about 1,800 years where there wasn't an awful lot of growth. 如果大家回顾公元一年的罗马帝国, 如果大家回顾公元一年的罗马帝国, 在大概1800年的时间里 世界经济并没有什么突飞猛进的发展。
Imperial:adj.帝国的;皇帝的;至高无上的;威严的;n.纸张尺寸;特等品; admittedly:adv.公认地;无可否认地;明白地;
But then the people that the Romans would have called Scottish barbarians , my ancestors, were actually part of the Industrial Revolution , and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate , and you saw that get quicker and quicker, and it's been impacting everyone. 但是此后,那些会被罗马人叫做 苏格兰野蛮人的民族,我的祖先们, 实际上加入了工业革命的时代, 而在19世纪,经济发展开始加速, 然后大家看到它变得越来越快, 而这对每个人都有影响。
barbarians:n.野蛮人;蛮夷(barbarian的复数形式); Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; accelerate:v.加快;加速;n.接受速成教育的学生;
It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore or the tundra of northern Finland. 不管是新加坡的丛林 还是芬兰北部的苔原。
tundra:n.[生态]苔原;[地理]冻原;冻土地带;
Everybody gets involved . It's just a matter of when the inevitable happens. 每个人都参与其中。这是不可避免的, 它的发生只是一个时间问题。 每个人都参与其中。这是不可避免的, 它的发生只是一个时间问题。
involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
Among the reasons I think it's happening right now is the quality of the leadership across Africa. 我认为之所以现在发生的原因之一是 非洲整体的领导素质。
I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s, the greatest politician in the world was African, but I'm meeting brilliant people across the continent the entire time, and they're doing the reforms which have transformed the economic situation for their countries. 我想在座的大多数会同意早在1990年代, 世界上最伟大的政治家是非洲人, 但是我在这片大陆上一直都在 和非常聪明的人打交道, 而他们正在进行着 扭转整个国家经济形式的改革。 扭转整个国家经济形式的改革。
politician:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩; continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的; reforms:n.改革(reform的复数);v.改革(reform的单数第三人称); transformed:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);(transform的过去分词和过去式) economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
And the West is engaging with that. 而西方国家也投入其中。
engaging:adj.有趣的; v.吸引住(注意力、兴趣); (engage的现在分词)
The West has given debt forgiveness programs which have halved sub-Saharan debt from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40. 西方国家已经给予了债务减免计划, 这使得撒哈拉以南的债务 从占GDP总数的70％降到40％。
debt:n.债务;借款;罪过; forgiveness:n.宽恕;原谅;宽宏大量 halved:v.对半分开;均分;把…减半(halve的过去式和过去分词);
At the same time , our debt level's gone up to 120 and we're all feeling slightly miserable as a result . 与此同时,我们自己的债务水平上涨到了120％ 而我们都对此感到些许悲愁。 而我们都对此感到些许悲愁。
At the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地; miserable:adj.悲惨的;痛苦的;卑鄙的; as a result:结果;
Politics gets weaker when debt is high. 政治会因债务过高而变得软弱。
Politics:n.政治;钩心斗角;政治观点;v.(贬)从事政治活动;(politic的第三人称单数)
When public sector debt is low, governments don't have to choose between investing in education and health and paying interest on that debt you owe . 当公共债务水平低的时候, 政府无需在 投资教育和健康, 还是为自己的债务付利息之间作选择。
public sector:n.公营部门;公共部门; investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词) owe:v.归功于;欠(债);欠(账);欠(情)
And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good. 不仅仅是公共部门前景看好,
The private sector as well. 私营部门也一样。
private sector:n.(国家经济的)私营部分;
Again, in the West, we have private sector debt of 200 percent of GDP in Spain, the U.K., and the U.S. 再次,在西方,我们有私营部门债务占到 GDP 200％的西班牙, 英国和美国。
That's an awful lot of debt. 这简直是太可怕的债务了。
Africa, many African countries, are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP. 大多数的非洲国家, 这种债务只占GDP的10％到30％。
If there's any continent that can do what China has done -- 如果有哪个大陆可以取得中国已经取得的成绩－
China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart -- if anyone can do what China has done in the last 30 years, it'll be Africa in the next 30. 在那张图上,中国大概在GDP的130％－ 如果有人可以做到中国 在过去30年取得的成绩, 这就是未来三十年的非洲。
So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt. 他们有很好的政府经济条件和健康的私营部门债务。
Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do. 有人认识到这一点了吗？实际上,有的。
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;
Foreign direct investment has poured into Africa in the last 15 years. 外商直接投资 在过去的15年间源源不断的涌入非洲。
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; poured:v.使(液体)连续流出;倾倒;倒出;喷发;(pour的过去分词和过去式)
Back in the '70s, no one touched the continent with a barge pole . 在上世纪70年代, 还没有人染指这片大陆。
barge:n.驳船;游艇;v.用船运输;蹒跚;闯入; pole:n.磁极;电极;柱子;杆子;v.用篙撑船;摆船;
And this investment is actually Western-led. 而现在这些投资实际上是由西方领导的。
We hear a lot about China, and they do lend a lot of money, but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada. 我们大多数听到的是中国, 他们确实是借给了很多钱, 但在过去几年60％的外国直接投资 来自于欧洲、美国、澳大利亚、加拿大。
Ten percent's come from India. 10％来自印度。
And they're investing in energy. 他们在投资能源。
Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now. 非洲每天生产一千万桶的原油,
barrels:n.机筒; v.把…装桶;
It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia. 与沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯相当。
Saudi:adj.沙乌地阿拉伯(人或语)的;n.沙乌地阿拉伯人; Arabia:n.阿拉伯半岛(亚洲西南部,等于ArabianPeninsula);
And they're investing in telecoms , shopping malls. 他们在投资通信, 购物中心。
telecoms:n.电信(telecom的复数形式);电信学;
And this very encouraging story, I think, is partly demographic-led. 而这个非常鼓舞人心的现象,我认为, 部分是由人口因素主导的。
And it's not just about African demographics . 而这不仅是非洲的人口。
demographics:n.人口统计资料;
I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in various parts of the world, and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second. 现在大家看到的是世界不同地区的 年纪在15－24岁之间的人口数, 现在大家看到的是世界不同地区的 年纪在15－24岁之间的人口数, 而我想让大家注意看一下那条蓝线。
Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn setting up an iPhone factory, by chance . 10年前,比如说富士康想要 建一座苹果手机生产工厂。
by chance:偶然;意外地;
You might choose China, which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line, where there's 200 million young people, and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger. 你可能会选中国, 这就是那条代表东亚的蓝线, 这里有2亿年轻人, 这个数字每年都在增加直到2010年。
bulk:n.大部分;主体;(大)体积;大(量);v.扩展;增大;堆积起来;形成大块;
Which means you're going to have new guys knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job," 这意味着你会有源源不断的新的年轻人 找上门来说,“请给我们工作,”
and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job." 和“我不需要大幅度地加工资,只要给我一份工作就行。”
Now, that's completely changed now. 现在呢,这种情况彻底不同了。
This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China. 这个10年,在中国15到24岁之间的 年轻人比例会下降20％到30％。 这个10年,在中国15到24岁之间的 年轻人比例会下降20％到30％。
So where do you set up your new factory? 那么你会在哪里设立自己的新工厂呢？
You look at South Asia, and people are. 你会想到南亚,确实人们在这么做。
They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh, and they're also looking at Africa. 人们在考虑巴基斯坦和孟加拉国, 同时也在考虑非洲。
And they're looking at Africa because that yellow line is showing you that the number of young Africans is going to continue to get bigger decade after decade after decade out to 2050. 而考虑非洲的原因是 那条黄线正在告诉我们 非洲的年轻人数量 会持续的增加, 一个十年接着一个十年一直到2050年。
yellow line:n.(英国路边限制停车的)黄线;
Now, there's a problem with lots of young people coming into any market, particularly when they're young men. 而有这么多年轻人加入到任何市场 都会产生一个问题, 而有这么多年轻人加入到任何市场 都会产生一个问题, 特别是当他们是年轻男性的时候。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
A bit dangerous, sometimes. 有时候是有些危险的。
I think one of the crucial factors is how educated is that demographic? 我认为一个非常关键的问题是 那部分人口的教育程度如何？
crucial:adj.重要的;决定性的;定局的;决断的; factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
If you look at the red line here, what you're going to see is that in 1975, just nine percent of kids were in secondary school education in sub-Saharan Africa. 如果大家看看这条红线, 你会看到在1975年, 在撒哈拉以南的非洲 只有9％的孩子接受了中学教育。 在撒哈拉以南的非洲 只有9％的孩子接受了中学教育。 在撒哈拉以南的非洲 只有9％的孩子接受了中学教育。
secondary school:中等学校;
Would you set up a factory in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s? 你会在70年代中期在撒哈拉以南开设工厂吗？ 你会在70年代中期在撒哈拉以南开设工厂吗？
Nobody else did. 没有人这么做。
They chose instead Turkey and Mexico to set up the textiles factories, because their education levels were 25 to 30 percent. 他们选择了土耳其和墨西哥 开设纺织工厂, 因为他们的教育水平是 25％到30％之间。
textiles:n.纺织品;纺织业;(textile的复数)
Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975. 今天,撒哈拉以南的教育水平已经达到 土耳其和墨西哥在1975年的水平。
They will get the textiles jobs that will take people out of rural poverty and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth . 他们会得到纺织工作 这会让人们远离贫困, 走上通往工业化和小康之路。
rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; industrialization:n.工业化; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
So what's Africa looking like today? 那么非洲现在是什么样子呢？
This is how I look at Africa. 我是这么看非洲的。
It's a bit odd , because I'm an economist. 看上去有点奇怪,因为我是一个经济学家。
odd:adj.古怪的;奇数的;n.奇数;
Each little box is about a billion dollars, and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention to Nigeria sitting there in the middle. 每个小盒子大概是10亿美金, 大家可以看到我对中间的 尼日利亚非常关注。
South Africa is playing a role. 南非起着很大的作用。
But when I'm thinking about the future, 但当我想到未来的时候,
I'm actually most interested in Central, Western and Southern Africa. 实际上我最感兴趣的是 中部、西部和南部非洲。
If I look at Africa by population, 如果按人口来看非洲,
East Africa stands out as so much potential . 东非显得非常突出, 潜力巨大。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
And I'm showing you something else with these maps. 我用这些地图给大家展示些其他的。
I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy . 这里显示着民主和专制制度的对比图。
democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治; versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗; autocracy:n.独裁政治;专制政治;独裁政府;独裁统治的国家;
Fragile democracies is the beige color. 脆弱的民主是米色。
Fragile:adj.脆的;易碎的; democracies:民主; beige:n.米黄色;adj.浅褐色的;米黄色的;
Strong democracies are the orange color. 强大的民主是橙色。
And what you'll see here is that most Africans are now living in democracies. 大家可以看到的是大部分的非洲人 都生活在民主制度中。
Why does that matter? 这有什么关系么？
Because what people want is what politicians try, they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver. 因为人民想要的是 政治家们争取实现的, 他们并不总是成功,但是他们会努力。
politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数)
And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on. 因此你就会有一个持续的良性循环。
reinforcing:vt.加强(reinforce的ing形式); positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012, the battle between the two candidates was over education. 在2012年12月的加纳大选上, 两个候选人之间的较量是 关于教育。
One guy offered free secondary school education to all, not just 30 percent. 一个人提出全民免费中学教育, 而不是仅仅30％。
The other guy had to say, 另一个人则说,
I'm going to build 50 new schools. 我要建50座新学校。
He won by a margin . 他最后险胜。
margin:n.边缘;利润,余裕;页边的空白;v.加边于;加旁注于;
So democracy is encouraging governments to invest in education. 因此民主鼓励政府 投资教育。
Education is helping growth and investment, and that's giving budget revenues , which is giving governments more money, which is helping growth through education. 教育可以促进经济增长和投资, 而这又增加了预算收入, 使得政府有更多的资金 通过投资教育来促进经济增长。
budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的; revenues:n.[会计]收入;税收;[会计]收益;营业收入(revenue的复数形式);
It's a positive, virtuous circle . 这就是一个积极的良性的循环。
virtuous circle:良性循环;
But I get asked this question, and this particular question makes me quite sad: 但是我又被问到这个问题, 而这个问题让我感觉很悲伤:
It's, "But what about corruption ? 那就是,“但是贪污腐败呢？
corruption:n.贪污,腐败;堕落;
How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?" 你怎么能在非洲有腐败的时候投资呢？“
And what makes me sad about it is that this graph here is showing you that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth. 之所以让我感到悲伤的因为 这张图告诉我们 和腐败关系最紧密的是财富。
correlation:n.[数]相关,关联;相互关系;
When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority . 当你很穷的时候,腐败问题不是你首先考虑的。
priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事;
And the countries on the right hand side, you'll see the per capita GDP, basically every country with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars, has got a corruption score of roughly , what's that, about three? 而在右边的国家里, 你会看到人均生产总值, 基本上每个人均GDP少于5000美金的国家, 基本上每个人均GDP少于5000美金的国家, 对应的腐败值 大概是3？
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地;
Three out of 10. That's not good. 10个人里有3个人。这不乐观。
Every poor country is corrupt. 每个贫穷国家都受腐败之苦。
Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt. 每个富裕国家相对来说更清廉。
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
How do you get from poverty and corruption to wealth and less corruption? 你怎样才能从贫穷和腐败 过渡到富裕和清廉？
You see the middle class grow. 大家看到中产阶级的发展壮大。
middle class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的;
And the way to do that is to invest, not to say I'm not investing in that continent because there's too much corruption. 而这需要的就是投资, 而不是不投资那个大陆 因为有太多的贪污腐败。
Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption. 我不想做为腐败开脱的人。
apologist:n.辩护者;护教论者;辨惑学专家(等于apologete);
I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe -- not in Africa, actually. 我曾经因为拒绝行贿而被抓过－ 实际上不在非洲。
bribe:v.贿赂,收买;n.贿赂;
But what I'm saying here is that we can make a difference and we can do that by investing. 但是我想说的是 我们可以通过投资而有所作为。 我们可以通过投资而有所作为。
make a difference:有影响,有关系;
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret. 现在我告诉大家一个不是秘密的秘密。
Economists aren't great at forecasting . 经济学家对预测未来并不很在行。
forecasting:n.预测;v.预言;作预告(forecast的ing形式);
Because the question really is, what happens next? 因为问题是,未来会怎样？
And if you go back to the year 2000, what you'll find is The Economist had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent," 如果大家回看2000年, 你会发现《经济学人》杂志 有一个非常有名的封面,“无望的大陆,”
and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent -- and they said, what's going to happen in the next 10 years? 他们回顾了非洲在过去十年的 发展曲线－只有2％－ 然后他们说, 下一个十年会是怎样的呢？
previous:adj.以前的;早先的;过早的;adv.在先;在…以前;
They assumed two percent, and that made it a pretty hopeless story, because population growth was two and a half. 他们认为还是只有2％, 这就造成了一个非常无望的前景, 因为人口增长是2.5％。
assumed:adj.假定的;假设的;v.假定;假设;认为;承担;(assume的过去分词和过去式)
People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s. 非洲人在1990年代变得更穷了。
Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover, and what does that new cover show? 现在2012年,《经济学人》有了一个新封面, 而这个新封面透露了什么信息？
That new cover shows, well, Africa rising, because the growth over the last 10 years has been about five and a half percent. 5.5%. 它显示了,相反地,非洲在腾飞, 因为过去十年的经济增长变成了
I would like to see if you can all now become economists, because if growth for the last 10 years has been five and a half percent, 5.5%, what do you think the IMF is forecasting for the next five years of growth in Africa? 我想看看大家现在能不能都变成经济学家, 因为如果过去的经济增长是 你认为国际货币基金组织 对未来5年的非洲经济发展的预测是多少？
Very good. I think you're secretly saying to your head, probably five and a half percent. 非常好。我想你们都在暗自算着, 大概还是5.5%.
You're all economists, and I think, like most economists, wrong. 你们都是经济学家了,而我认为, 就像许多经济学家一样,大家都错了。
No offense . 我没有恶意哈。
offense:n.犯罪,过错;进攻;触怒;引起反感的事物;
What I like to do is try and find the countries that are doing exactly what Africa has already done, and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing to whoof , suddenly shooting through the roof. 我喜欢做的是尝试找到那些 经历过和非洲一样情况的国家, 就是经过了1800年的无所作为, 突然之间,势如破竹般的增长。
whoof:(突然排气似的)呼哧声;
India is one of those examples. 印度就是其中的一个例子。
This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010. 这是印度1960年到2010年之间的经济增长情况。
Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second. 请暂时忽略底部的比例。
Ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
Actually, for the first 20 years, the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow. 实际上,在最初的20年, 60和70年代,印度的经济实际上没有增长。
It grew at two percent when population growth was about two and a half. 经济增长了2％, 而人口的增速是2.5%。
If that's familiar , that's exactly what happened in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s. 看上去有些熟悉吧,这就是 撒哈拉以南地区在80到90年代的情况。
familiar:adj.熟悉的;常见的;亲近的;n.常客;密友;
And then something happened in 1980. 在1980年奇迹发生了。
Boom! India began to explode . 突然！印度经济蓬勃发展。
explode:v.爆炸;爆裂;勃然(大怒);突然发生(危险);
It wasn't a " Hindu rate of growth," 它不再是一个“印度式经济增长率,”
Hindu:adj.印度的;印度教的;n.印度人;印度教教徒;
'"democracies can't grow." Actually India could. “民主不可能增长。”实际上印度做到了。
And if I lay sub-Saharan growth on top of the Indian growth story, it's remarkably similar. 如果我把撒哈拉以南地区的经济增长图 放在印度的发展图上, 两者是惊人的相似。
remarkably:adv.非常;极为;格外;出乎意料地
Twenty years of not much growth and a trend line which is actually telling you that sub-Saharan African growth is slightly better than India. 20年的默默无闻, 然后一条未来的走势曲线实际上告诉大家 撒哈拉以南的非洲经济增长 比印度似乎还稍微好些。
trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向;
And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this, 如果和发展中的亚洲做一个比较,
I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa, 我会说印度比非洲发达20年,
I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India, 而发展中的亚洲又比印度发达10年,
I can draw out some forecasts for the next 30 to 40 years which I think are better than the ones where you're looking backwards. 我可以因此预测到 未来30到40年的情况, 我认为这比 往回看更好些。
forecasts:n.[气象][通信]预测; v.预言;
And that tells me this: that Africa is going to go from a $2 trillion economy today to a $29 trillion economy by 2050. 我的结论是: 非洲会从 今天的2万亿的经济体 变成2050年的29万亿经济体。
trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
Now that's bigger than Europe and America put together in today's money. 那比今天欧洲和美国的总和 还要多。
put together:..放在一起;组合;装配;
Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years. 人均寿命会延长13年。
The population's going to double from one billion to two billion, so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold in the next 35 years. 人口会翻番 从10亿到20亿, 家庭收入在未来的35年会增长7倍。 家庭收入在未来的35年会增长7倍。
household:n.家庭;一家人;同住一所(或一套)房子的人;adj.家庭的;家常的;王室的; sevenfold:adj.七倍的;七重的;adv.七倍地;
And when I present this in Africa -- 当我在非洲做这个预测的时候－
Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question. 内罗毕,拉各斯,阿克拉－我被问到一个问题。
'"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic ?" “查理,你为什么这么悲观呢？”
pessimistic:adj.悲观的,厌世的;悲观主义的;
And you know what? 大家知道吗？
Actually, I think they've got a point. 实际上,我认为他们是对的。
Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned, yes from the positives in Asia and India, but also the negatives ? 难道我的意思是不管是好的 还是坏的方面,非洲就不能从亚洲和印度 身上学到什么吗？
positives:n.实在的事物;阳极板(positive的复数); negatives:n.[摄]底片; v.否定;
Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made. 也许非洲可以避免一些它们犯过的错误。
Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here this last week, surely some of these can perhaps help Africa grow even faster? 上周我们在这里讨论的科技发展, 上周我们在这里讨论的科技发展, 它们中的一些肯定也可以 帮助非洲发展得更快吧？
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数);
And I think here we can play a role. 而我认为我们也可以扮演一定的角色。
Because technology does let you help. 因为科技让你有能力帮助。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
You can go and download some of the great African literature from the Internet now. 你现在可以从网上下载一些伟大的非洲文学书籍。 你现在可以从网上下载一些伟大的非洲文学书籍。 你现在可以从网上下载一些伟大的非洲文学书籍。
literature:n.文学;文献;文艺;著作;
No, not right now, just 30 seconds. 不,不是现在,还有30秒就好了。
You can go and buy some of the great tunes . 你可以购买一些非常棒的音乐。
tunes:n.曲调;曲子;v.(为乐器)调音;调整;调频道;(tune的第三人称单数和复数)
My iPod's full of them. 我的iPod里面有很多。
Buy African products. 购买非洲产品。
Go on holiday and see for yourself the change that's happening. 去非洲度假,亲眼看看 那里的变化。
Invest. 投资。
Perhaps hire people, give them the skills that they can take back to Africa, and their companies will grow an awful lot faster than most of ours here in the West. 投资。 或者雇人,培养他们以后可以在非洲使用的技能, 他们的公司比我们西方的公司 会发展得快得多得多。
And then you and I can help make sure that for Africa, the 21st century is their century. 这样你们和我可以帮助确保 21世纪是非洲的世纪。
Thank you very much. 非常感谢大家。
(Applause) （掌声）