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BruceBuenodeMesquita_2009-_预测伊朗局势的未来_
What I'm going to try to do is explain to you quickly, how to predict, and illustrate it with some predictions about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years. 我将很快的向大家解释一下 我们怎样预测未来 并且向大家展示一下 我们对未来几年伊朗局势所做出的一些预测
illustrate:v.解释;加插图于;给(书等)做图表;表明…真实; predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式);
In order to predict effectively, we need to use science. 为了做出准确的预测 我们需要利用科学
And the reason that we need to use science is because then we can reproduce what we're doing, it's not just wisdom or guesswork . 而利用科学的原因是 我们可以重复验证所得到的结果 这就不是智者的预言或者瞎猜
reproduce:v.繁殖;复制;再现;生育; wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问; guesswork:n.猜测;臆测;凭猜测所作之工作;
And if we can predict, then we can engineer the future. 如果我们可以预测未来 我们就可以操纵未来
So if you are concerned to influence energy policy , or you are concerned to influence national security policy , or health policy , or education, science, and a particular branch of science is a way to do it, not the way we've been doing it, which is seat of the pants wisdom. 换言之,当你想去左右国家能源政策的时候 或者,当你想去影响国防政策 医疗政策或教育政策的时候 科学,其中一门科学将会为你指明未来 并不是靠我们所使用的方法 凭借经验或直觉去预言
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词) influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
Now before I get into how to do it let me give you a little truth in advertising , because I'm not engaged in the business of magic, there are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict, and there are some that it can't. 现在,在我进入主题之前 我先给大家一些事先声明, 我不是算命的 有一些东西我可以预测 有一些我不能
advertising:n.做广告;广告业;广告活动;v.做广告;(advertise的现在分词) engaged in:从事于;忙于; approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理;
It can predict complex negotiations or situations involving coercion , that is in essence everything that has to do with politics , much of what has to do with business, 我可以预测一些大型谈判 牵涉强制力的一些情景 总的来说,那就是所有和政治有关的事情 也包括一部份商业方面的
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; negotiations:n.谈判(negotiation的复数);磋商; involving:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;(involve的现在分词) coercion:n.强制;强迫;高压政治;威压; in essence:本质上;其实;大体上; politics:n.政治;钩心斗角;政治观点;v.(贬)从事政治活动;(politic的第三人称单数)
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market , 但如果你想在股市抄底,那实在不好意思
speculate:v.推测;猜测;推断;投机;做投机买卖; stock market:股票市场;证券市场;股票交易;
I don't predict stock markets -- OK, it's not going up any time really soon. 我确实不能预测股票市场,不过,好吧 反正最近是绝对不可能涨上去的
But I'm not engaged in doing that. 但那是我不会预测的
I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators , 我也不会去预测随机生成的数字
predicting:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的现在分词) random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地; generators:n.[电]发电机;[计]生成器(generator的复数);
I actually get phone calls from people who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win. 有人曾今打电话问我 下期中奖彩票号码是多少
lottery:n.彩票;碰运气的事,难算计的事;抽彩给奖法;
I don't have a clue . 那我爱莫能助。
clue:n.提示;迹象;(纵横填字谜、游戏或问题的)提示词语;v.提示;为…提供线索;
I engage in the use of game theory , game theory is a branch of mathematics and that means, sorry, t hat even in the study of politics, math has come into the picture. 我所研究的是博弈论的应用,博弈论是数学的一个分支 也就是说,对不起（文科生们）,数学已经进入了 政治学的研究领域
game theory:n.博弈论;对策论;
We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics, we need to look at this in a rigorous way. 我们现在不能被动的盲目的去推测政治 我们应该采取科学严谨的方法。
rigorous:adj.严格的,严厉的;严密的;严酷的;
Now, what is game theory about? 那,到底什么是博弈论?
It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them. 博弈论有一个假设,那就是人人为己
assumes:v.假定;采用;承担;呈;(assumes是assume的第三人称单数)
That doesn't seem terribly shocking -- although it's controversial for a lot of people -- that we are self-interested . 这并不是一个让人吃惊的假设 尽管有很多人认为人人都是自私自利 是有争议的命题
controversial:adj.有争议的;有争论的; self-interested:adj.自私的;利己主义的;
In order to look out for what's best for them or what they think is best for them, people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want. 为了设法得到对自己最好的东西 或者是他们所认定的对自己最好的东西 人们会通过他们不同的价值观,来识别他们所想要的和所憎恨的
look out for:当心,提防 identify:v.识别:鉴定:确认:发现:
And they have beliefs about what other people want, and what other people don't want, how much power other people have, how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want. 而且,他们对别人想要什么,不想要什么 别人有多少势力,他们能拿走多少你想要的 保留他们自己的观点
get in the way:妨碍;挡道;挡住去路;阻碍;
And they face limitations , constraints , they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world, they may be Einstein, stuck away farming someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed, as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time, a great mathematician but nobody noticed. 他们会遇到一些条件限制,约束 也许他们十分的不起眼,也许他们在不应在的一些地方 他们可能是爱因斯坦,但是被可能被困在 印度的某个村落在种田 就像拉马努金一样 一个很少人关注的印度天才数学家
limitations:n.局限性;(限制)因素;边界(limitation的复数形式); constraints:n.[数]约束;限制;约束条件(constraint的复数形式); located:adj.位于; v.确定…的准确地点; (locate的过去分词和过去式) rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的; mathematician:n.数学家;善作数字计算的人;
Now who is rational ? 那,谁是理性的
rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的;
A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about? 很多人都在冥想到底什么是理性的
rationality:n.合理性;合理的行动;
People are rational. 人人都是理性的
Mother Theresa, she was rational. 特蕾莎修女,她是理性的
Terrorists, they're rational. 恐怖分子,他们也是理性
Pretty much everybody is rational. 绝大多数人都是理性的
I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of -- two-year-olds, they are not rational, they have very fickle preferences , they switch what they think all the time, and schizophrenics are probably not rational, but pretty much everybody else is rational. 我只知道两种例外情况 两岁大的孩子,他们不是理性的 他们想要的东西随时都在变 他们的思维方式也在不停的变化 精神分裂症患者也不是理性的 但除了以上两者以外,其他所有人都是理性的
fickle:adj.浮躁的;易变的;变幻无常的; preferences:n.偏爱;爱好;喜爱;偏爱的事物;(preference的复数) schizophrenics:adj.精神分裂症的;n.精神分裂症的患者;
That is, they are just trying to do what they think is in their own best interest. 所谓理性,那就是人们试着去做 他们认为对他们自己最有利的事情
Now in order to work out what people are going to do to pursue their interests, we have to think about who has influence in the world. 现在,为了预测人们将要做什么 来获取他们的个人利益 我们研究那些有影响力的人物
pursue:v.继续;从事;追赶;纠缠;
If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior, with regard to producing pollutants , one approach, the common approach, is to exhort them to be better, to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet. 如果,你想去左右一些企业的行为 例如,减少他们污染物的排放量 有一个方法,一种常见的方法 那就是给他们一些忠告 告诉他们这些污染物正在破坏我们的地球
corporations:n.[贸易]公司,[经]企业(corporation的复数形式); pollutants:n.[环境]污染物(pollutant的复数); exhort:vt.忠告;劝诫;vi.劝告;
And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have, but if you show them that it's in their interest then they're responsive . 你会发现这些手段的效果 并没有你所想象中的那么大 但是,如果你告诉他们环保符合他们的利益 他们就会有所回应
responsive:adj.响应的;应答的;回答的;
So, we have to work out who influences problems. 所以,我们就应该找出谁是有影响力的人物。
influences:n.影响; v.影响;
If we're looking at Iran, the president of the United States we would like to think, may have some influence -- certainly the president in Iran has some influence -- but we make a mistake if we just pay attention to the person at the top of the power ladder because that person doesn't know much about Iran, or about energy policy, or about health care , or about any particular policy. 如果我们研究伊朗,我们就会发现 美国总统会有一定的影响力 当然伊朗的总统也有一定的影响力 但我们会犯一个错误 当我们只关心决策层的领导 因为那个领导人不一定理解伊朗 抑或能源政策 或者医疗政策 甚至有可能不了解任何的政策
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) pay attention to:注意 ladder:n.阶梯;途径;梯状物;v.成名;发迹;在…上装设梯子; health care:n.卫生保健;
That person surrounds himself or herself with advisers . 那个领导人的周围一定还有很多的顾问
advisers:n.顾问(adviser的复数);
If we're talking about national security problems, maybe it's the secretary of state , maybe it's the secretary of defense, the director of national intelligence, 若是我们在讨论国家安全问题 那个顾问可能是国务卿 可能是国防部长 情报部门的主任
secretary of state:n.(英国)大臣;(美国)国务卿;
maybe the ambassador to the United Nations , or somebody else who they think is going to know more about the particular problem. 或者是驻联合国的大使,或是决策层自选的 一些相关问题专家。
ambassador:n.大使;代表;使节; United Nations:n.联合国;
But lets face it, the secretary of state doesn't know much about Iran. 但现实是,国务卿也不一定十分了解伊朗
The secretary of defense doesn't know much about Iran. 国防部长不一定十分了解伊朗
Each of those people in turn has advisers who advise them, so they can advise the president. 这些顾问们,同样的 他们也被更多的顾问所包围着 这样他们才能向总统进谏
There are lots of people shaping decisions and so if we want to predict correctly we have to pay attention to everybody who is trying to shape the outcome , not just the people at the pinnacle of the decision-making pyramid. 所以,是许多人影响做出决策 也就是说,如果我们想正确的做出预测 我们必须关注影响决策结果 的每一个人 并不仅仅是在决策机构 金字塔尖上的人
outcome:n.结果,结局;成果; pinnacle:n.高峰;小尖塔;尖峰;极点;vt.造小尖塔;置于尖顶上;置于高处; decision-making:n.决策;
Unfortunately , a lot of times we don't do that. 但不幸的是,大多数时候我们没有这么做
Unfortunately:adv.不幸地;
There's a good reason that we don't do that, and there's a good reason that using game theory and computers, we can overcome the limitation of just looking at a few people. 我们有很好的理由不这样做, 我们也有好的理由去利用博弈论和电脑 来克服仅仅关注在决策层的几个人 而做出预测的局限性
overcome:vt.克服;胜过;vi.克服;得胜;
Imagine a problem with just five decision-makers. 让我们来假想一个仅有五个决策人的情况。
Imagine for example that Sally over here, wants to know what Harry, and Jane, and George, and Frank , are thinking, and sends messages to those people. 比如说 Sally在那里 她想知道Harry, Jane, George和Frank 在想些什么 她向其他人提供了一些信息
Sally:n.突围;[军]出击;(感情等)迸发;俏皮话;远足;v.突围;出发;动身,外出; Frank:adj.坦白的,直率的;老实的;n.免费邮寄特权;v.免费邮寄;
Sally's giving her opinion to them, and they're giving their opinion to Sally. Sally在给其他人传达她的观点 其他人把他们的观点告诉给她
But Sally also wants to know what Harry is saying to these three, and what they're saying to Harry. 但Sally还想知道 Harry在给其他三个人说了些什么 其他三个人有给Harry说了些什么
And Harry wants to know what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on, and Sally would like to know what Harry thinks those people are saying. 然后Harry还想知道 其他人有在说些什么,以此类推 Sally还想知道Harry认为其他人在说些什么
That's a complicated problem, that's a lot to know. 这就变成了一个很复杂的问题,太多的信息
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
With five decision-makers there are a lot of linkages -- 120 as a matter of fact if you remember your factorials . 当有五个决策人的时候 就有很多的联系信息 事实上有120个 如果你记得5的阶乘
linkages:n.联系(linkage的复数); as a matter of fact:事实上; factorials:n.[数]阶乘;[数]析因(factorial的复数);
Five factorial is 120. 5的阶乘是120
Now you may be surprised to know that smart people can keep 120 things straight in their head. 但也许出乎你的意外 一个聪明的人可以在大脑里 搞清楚120事情的来龙去脉
Suppose we double the number of influencers from five to 10. 但如果我们把决策人的数量翻一倍 从五人到十人
Suppose:v.推断:假定:假设:设想: influencers:n.影响者;有影响力的人(influencer的复数);
Does that mean we've doubled the number of pieces of information we need to know, from 120 to 240? 那我们是不是简单的关系的数量 也乘以2, 从120到240呢？
No, how about 10 times? 不？十倍？
To 1,200? No. 1200？不
We've increased it to 3.6 million. 我们事实上增加到了三百六十万条信息
Nobody can keep that straight in their head. 没人能够把这弄清楚
But computers, they can. They don't need coffee breaks, they don't need vacations, they don't need to go to sleep at night, they don't ask for raises either. 但是电脑可以 它们可以。它们不用停下来喝咖啡 它们不会放假 它们晚上不用睡觉 他们也不会要求加薪
They can keep this information straight and that means that we can process the information. 它们能够理清楚所有的信息 也就是说,我们可以利用它们来处理信息
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it, and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran, and you're going to be wondering, "Why should we listen to this guy? 接下来,我会告诉你们怎样来处理 然后我会向你们展示一下关于伊朗的一些预测 你也许会纳闷儿了 我们凭什么相信这个家伙？
Why should we believe what he's saying?" 为什么我们要听信他所说的？
So I'm going to show you a factoid . 所以,我先让你们看个数据
factoid:n.仿真陈述(仅因出现在出版物上而被信以为真);adj.虚构的;似是而非的;
This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency of the percentage of time that the model I'm talking about is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known, when the experts who provided the data inputs got it wrong. 这是中情局提供的一份评估报告 关于我所提到的这个模型 所做出的一些正确预测 反而是提供数据的专家 做出了错误的预测 错误的预测
assessment:n.评定;估价; Central Intelligence Agency:un.[政]中央情报局; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式) inputs:n.[自][电子]输入;投入(input的复数);
That's not my claim , that's a CIA claim -- you can read it, it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by 我不是自卖自夸,这是中情局的东西,你可以读到的 这报告在前一阵子解的密。你可以在
claim:v.要求;声称;需要;认领;n.要求;声称;索赔;断言;值得; declassified:解密的; volume:n.体积;容积;音量;响度;一册;合订本 edited:v.编辑,校订;编选;编集;(edit的过去分词和过去式)
H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press. H. Bradford Westerfield编撰的一本书里读到,耶鲁大学出版社
So, what do we need to know in order to predict? 所以,我们需要什么样的信息 来做出预测呢？
You may be surprised to find out we don't need to know very much. 也许出乎你的意料之外,我们不需要太多的东西
We do need to know who has a stake in trying to shape the outcome of a decision. 我们需要知道的是:哪些人有利害关系 并试图左右决策。
stake:n.桩,棍子;赌注;火刑;奖金;v.资助,支持;系…于桩上;把…押下打赌;
We need to know what they say they want, not what they want in their heart of hearts, not what they think they can get, but what they say they want, because that is a strategically chosen position, and we can work backwards from that to draw inferences about important features of their decision making. 我们需要知道,他们口头上说的目标是什么 不一定是他们真正心里所想的目标 不一定是他们认为他们能够得到的 而是挂在嘴边的目的,因为那是一个策略性姿态 我们可以反过来推测,到底什么是 真正的左右他们决策的重点。
strategically:adv.战略性地;战略上; inferences:n.[数]推断,[数]推论(inference复数形式);
We need to know how focused they are on the problem at hand. 我们还需要知道,对于面临的问题 他们的关切程度有多少。
That is, how willing are they to drop what they're doing when the issue comes up, and attend to it instead of something else that's on their plate -- how big a deal is it to them? 也就是说,当争议出现时,他们有多情愿放弃手头的东西 并且注意这些而不是盘子里的其他东西 这些东西对他们的重要程度是多少？
issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
And how much clout could they bring to bear if they chose to engage on the issue. 我们还需知道 对这件事情到底他们能有多大的影响力 如果他们选择介入议题。
clout:n.破布;敲打;影响力;势力;vt.给…打补钉;猛击;
If we know those things we can predict their behavior by assuming that everybody cares about two things on any decision. 如果我们了解到了这些 我们假设决策人都十分关心 决策的两个东西（“名“与“利”）,从而预测他们会做出的决策。
assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
They care about the outcome. They'd like an outcome as close to what they are interested in, as possible. 他们重视结果,并尽可能的把最终决策 拉向对自己有利的方向
They're careerists, they also care about getting credit -- there's ego involvement , they want to be seen as important in shaping the outcome, or as important, if it's their druthers , to block an outcome. 这些决策人也是干事业的,他们关心自己的信誉 成就感是一个因素 他们希望别人把他们看成促成决策结果的重要人物 或者,成为阻碍决策结果的产生的重要人物。
involvement:n.牵连;包含;混乱;财政困难; druthers:n.(美)选择;偏爱;
And so we have to figure out how they balance those two things. 所以,我们还要找到他们名利双收的平衡点
Different people trade off between standing by their outcome, faithfully holding to it, going down in a blaze of glory, or giving it up, putting their finger in the wind , and doing whatever they think is going to be a winning position. 对于最终决策和成就感 人人都有不一样的权衡 有的人信守承诺,虔诚的追求荣光, 有的不管如何,见风使舵, 朝着自认获利方向行动。
faithfully:adv.忠实地;如实地;诚心诚意地;深信着地; blaze:vt.在树皮上刻路标; n.火焰,烈火; vi.燃烧; in the wind:即将发生;在进行;
Most people fall in between, and if we can work out where they fall we can work out how to negotiate with them to change their behavior. 有的人站在在中间。如果我们知道他们的态度 我们就可以对他做相应的工作 来改变他的行为
negotiate:v.谈判,商议;转让;越过;
So with just that little bit of input we can work out what the choices are that people have, what the chances are that they're willing to take, what they're after, what they value, what they want, and what they believe about other people. 所以,利用那些信息 我们可以找出决策者们有什么样的选择 他们愿意冒多大的风险 他们想要什么,他们的价值观,他们的目的 和他们认为别人想要什么
You might notice what we don't need to know, there's no history in here. 你可能注意到了有一些信息是不重要的 我们不需要知道过去的历史
How they got to where they are may be important in shaping the input information, but once we know where they are we're worried about where they're going to be headed in the future. 他们怎么回到今天这个地步 也许对他们做出决策很重要 但一旦我们知道他们到了今天局势 我们想知道的就是他们未来的发展方向
How they got there turns out not to be terribly critical in predicting. 所以,今天的形势是如何形成的,在预测中并不关键
critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
I remind you of that 90 percent accuracy rate. 我再提醒下大家我们百分之九十的正确率
remind:v.提醒;使想起; accuracy:n.[数]精确度,准确性;
So where are we going to get this information? 那么,我们怎样获得相关信息呢？
We can get this information from the Internet, from The Economist, 我们通过各种渠道搜集信息 互联网,经济学人杂志
The Financial Times, The New York Times, 金融时报,纽约时报
Financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
U.S. News and World Report, lots of sources like that, or we can get it from asking experts who spend their lives studying places and problems, because those experts know this information. 美国新闻和世界报道,还有其他一些资源 或者我们会直接去询问那些 花费了毕生精力来研究该地区和问题的专家 因为他们有大量的信息
sources:n.来源;出处;起源;根源;原因;v.(从…)获得(source的第三人称单数和复数)
If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence the decision, how much clout do they have, how much they care about this issue, and what do they say they want, 如果那些专家都不知道有哪些人在影响最终决策 那些人有多大能耐 有多关心最终结果,那些人表面上的目的
are they experts? That's what it means to be an expert, that's the basic stuff an expert needs to know. 那他们还是什么“专家”。作为专家 他们就应该知道这些基础问题的答案
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
Alright, lets turn to Iran. 好,现在我们转向伊朗
Let me make three important predictions -- you can check this out, time will tell . 我会做出三个重要的预测 我们走着瞧,时间会证明一切
time will tell:时间会证明的;时间会证明一切;时间能说明问题;
What is Iran going to do about its nuclear weapons program? 伊朗的核武器计划是怎样的？
nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
How secure is the theocratic regime in Iran? 伊朗政教合一的政权是否稳定？
theocratic:adj.神权的;神权政治的; regime:n.政权,政体;社会制度;管理体制;
What's its future? 它的未来怎样？
And everybody's best friend, 还有我们大家的朋友
Ahmadi-Nejad. How are things going for him? 伊朗总统内贾德。 他的下场是怎样的？
How are things going to be working out for him in the next year or two? 他未来一两年的日子好过吗？
You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics . 你们可以看看这个,这些不是基于统计数字
take a look at:看一看;检查; statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
I want to be very clear here. I'm not projecting some past data into the future. 我想明确这一点。我不是在用过去的数字来预测未来
I've taken inputs on positions and so forth, run it through a computer model that had simulated the dynamics of interaction , and these are the simulated dynamics, the predictions about the path of policy. 我把各种有影响力的人物关于些问题所占的位置 输入一个电脑模型 并模拟真人动态互相影响的过程 这就是整个模拟的动态过程 我们对伊朗核政策路线的预测
simulated:adj.假装的; v.假装; (simulate的过去式和过去分词) dynamics:n.动力学,力学; interaction:n.[计]交互,相互作用;相互交流;干扰;
So you can see here on the vertical axis , 你先可以看到纵轴
vertical:n.垂直线;垂直位置;adj.竖的;垂直的;直立的;纵向的; axis:n.轴;轴线;轴心国;
I haven't shown it all the way down to zero, there are lots of other options , but here I'm just showing you the prediction, so I've narrowed the scale , up at the top of the axis, "Build the Bomb." 我没有一直写到零 这还有其他很多可能,但我仅仅展示了我们的预测 我也缩小了比例 在纵轴的最高处写着 :制造核弹
options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式) scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
At 130, we start somewhere above 130, between building a bomb, and making enough weapons grade fuel so that you could build a bomb. 在130这个位置,我们大概从130开始 那是在制造一枚核弹 和生产足够核武器原料之间
That's where, according to my analyses , the Iranians were at the beginning of this year. 根据我的分析,那就是 伊朗人今年初所在的位置
according to:根据,据说; analyses:n.分析;解析;分解;梗概(analysis的复数形式); Iranians:n.伊朗人(Iranian的复数形式); at the beginning of:在…的开始;
And then the model makes predictions down the road , at 115 they would only produce enough weapons grade fuel to show that they know how, but they wouldn't build a weapon, they would build a research quantity . 现在,我们的模型开是进行预测了 在115,他们只会生产足够的核武器原料 以展示他们懂得怎么造,但他们不会去造 他们会制造足够的原料用于科研
down the road:只要沿着这条路;将来;在路上; quantity:n.量;数量;大量;数额;
It would achieve some national pride, but not go ahead and build a weapon. 这样可以震震国威 但不会去制造真正的核弹
And down at 100 they would build civilian nuclear energy , which is what they say is their objective . 在下面100的地方,他们会制造和原料以用于核能生产 也就是他们口头上的目标
civilian:adj.民用的;百姓的,平民的;n.平民,百姓; nuclear energy:n.核能;原子能; objective:n.目标; adj.客观的;
The yellow line shows us the most likely path. 黄线告诉我们他们最有可能的路线
yellow line:n.(英国路边限制停车的)黄线;
The yellow line includes an analysis of 87 decision makers in Iran, and a vast number of outside influencers trying to pressure Iran into changing its behavior, various players in the United States, and Egypt, and Saudi Arabia , and Russia, European Union , 这条黄线包括了 87个重要的伊朗决策人 和大量向伊朗施加压力 的外国势力 这包括: 美国,埃及 沙特阿拉伯,俄罗斯,欧盟
analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; Saudi:adj.沙乌地阿拉伯(人或语)的;n.沙乌地阿拉伯人; Arabia:n.阿拉伯半岛(亚洲西南部,等于ArabianPeninsula); European Union:n.欧洲联盟;
Japan, so on and so forth. 和日本,等等
The white line reproduces the analysis if the international environment just left Iran to make its own internal decisions, under its own domestic political pressures -- that's not going to be happening -- but you can see that the line comes down faster if they're not put under international pressure, if they're allowed to pursue their own devices . 白线所代表的 是将外国势力排除在外的伊朗政策走向 如果国外势力不向伊朗施加压力 让伊朗人自己做决定 虽然那不会发生 但是你可以看到,线向下滑的更快了 若没有国际压力的情况下 而让他们自己发展
reproduces:vt.复制;再生;生殖;使…在脑海中重现;vi.复制;繁殖; internal:n.内脏;本质;adj.内部的;里面的;体内的;(机构)内部的; domestic:n.佣人;家佣;家庭纠纷;家庭矛盾;adj.本国的;国内的;家用的;家庭的; devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数);
But in any event , by the end of this year, beginning of next year, we get to a stable equilibrium outcome. 但不管怎样,在今年底 明年初,我们会有出现一个平衡
in any event:无论如何;不管怎样; stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房; equilibrium:n.均衡;平静;保持平衡的能力;
And that equilibrium is not what the United States would like, but it's probably an equilibrium that the United States can live with, and that a lot of others can live with. 这个平衡不是美国想要的, 不过这个平衡是美国可以忍受的, 很多人都可以忍受它。
And that is that Iran will achieve that nationalist pride by making enough weapons grade fuel, through research, so that they could show that they know how to make weapons grade fuel, but not enough to actually build a bomb. 那就是,伊朗以制造足够的核武器原料 获得民族自豪感, 展示他们有能力制造武器级核燃料, 但不够制造一枚核弹。
nationalist:n.民族主义者; adj.民族主义的(等于nationalistic);
How is this happening? 这是怎么会事？
Over here you can see this is the distribution of power in favor of civilian nuclear energy today, this is what that power block is predicted to be like by the late parts of 2010, early parts of 2011. 在这里,你可以看到 今天支持修建核电站的势力分布 也就是说,这就是在2010年末,2011年初 这个可能性的支持者将会变成这样
distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销; predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式)
Just about nobody supports research on weapons grade fuel today, but by 2011 that gets to be a big block, and you put these two together, that's the controlling influence in Iran. 虽然今天没有支持生产足够核武器原料 但在2011年,那一组人将变成最大的一块 把这两块放在一起,他们便成了控制伊朗的主流力量
Out here today, there are a bunch of people -- 在今天,有一群人
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆;
Ahmadinejad for example -- who would like not only to build a bomb, but test a bomb. 比如说,内贾德先生 他们不仅想造一枚核弹 还想实验一枚核弹
That power disappears completely, nobody supports that by 2011. 那一股势力在2011年 将会彻底的消失
disappears:v.消失;不见;消亡;失踪;丢失;(disappear的第三人称单数)
These guys are all shrinking , 这些人在缩小
shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词)
The power is all drifting over here so the outcome is going to be the weapons grade fuel. 这股势力将会移向那里 所以结果将是他们会制造核武原料
drifting:v.漂流;漂移;缓慢行走;顺其自然地做;(drift的现在分词)
Who are the winners and who are the losers in Iran? 那么在伊朗到底谁是赢家和输家呢？
losers:n.输者,败者:(loser的复数)
Take a look at these guys, they're growing in power, and by the way , this was done a while ago before the current economic crisis and that's probably going to get steeper . 我们来看看这些人,他们的势力在增加 顺便说一下,这个预测做了有一阵子了 在这次金融危机之前做的 那就是说 这条线也许会变得更陡
by the way:顺便说一下; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; steeper:n.浸润器;浸泡用的桶子;adj.陡峭的,险峻的;
These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran, the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries, they are growing in political clout, as the mullahs are isolating themselves -- with the exception of one group of mullahs, who are not well known to Americans. 这条线代表的是金钱利益集团 银行家,石油集团,商人 他们的政治势力在扩大 而毛拉(伊斯兰神学家)们在孤立自己 除了美国人不太了解的 一类毛拉没有这样
moneyed:adj.有钱的;金钱上的; mullahs:n.毛拉(伊斯兰教神学家); isolating:adj.孤立的;绝缘的;v.使隔离;使绝缘(isolate的ing形式); with the exception of:除了…以外; well known:adj.著名的;众所周知的;清楚明白的;
That's this line here, growing in power, these are what the Iranians call the Quietists. 他们就是这条线,他们的政治力量也在增长 这就是伊朗人所谓的“安静者”们
These are the Ayatollahs , mostly based in Qom, who have great clout in the religious community , have been quiet on politics and are going to be getting louder, 这些是在库姆(Qom)的阿亚图拉(伊斯兰教什叶派的最高宗教职衔), 他们在伊朗宗教团体很有势力 他们现在虽然很安静,他们的声音变得越来越大
Ayatollahs:n.阿亚图拉(对伊朗等国伊斯兰教什叶派领袖的尊称); religious:adj.宗教的;虔诚的;严谨的;修道的;n.修道士;尼姑; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
because they see Iran going in an unhealthy direction, a direction contrary to what Khomeini had in mind. 因为他们认为伊朗的发展方向不健康 是与霍梅尼(伊朗1979革命精神领袖）构想 的路线完全相反
unhealthy:不健康的 contrary:adj.相反的;对立的;adv.相反地;n.相反;反面;
Here is Mr. Ahmadinejad. 这条线是内贾德先生
Two things to notice, he's getting weaker, and while he gets a lot of attention in the United States, he is not a major player in Iran, he is on the way down. 注意两件事,一 他越来越弱 他在美国确实吸引了很多的注意 但他在伊朗并不是一个主要人物 他已在下坡路上
OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this. 好吧,这我们就说到这里
Everything is not predictable , the stock market is, at least for me, not predictable , but most complicated negotiations are predictable. 并不是所有的事情都可以被预测,股票市场 至少对我来说,是不可预测的 但是绝大多数的谈判是可以预测的
predictable:adj.可预言的;
Again, whether we're talking health policy, education, environment, energy, litigation , mergers , all of these are complicated problems that are predictable, that this sort of technology can be applied to. 再说一次, 无论是说医疗政策,教育政策 环境,能源政策 诉讼,公司合并 所有这些复杂的问题 都是可以预测的 都是适用这种技术的。
litigation:n.诉讼;起诉; mergers:v.兼并; n.吸收; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; applied:adj.应用的;实用的;v.应用;使用;申请,请求;(apply的过去分词和过去式)
And the reason that being able to predict those things is important, is not just because you might run a hedge fund and make money off of it, but because if you can predict what people will do, you can engineer what they will do. 我们可以去预测这些事情是很重要的 不仅仅因为你可以开个对冲基金来挣一大笔钱 而是因为你可以去预测人类的行为 然后去操纵他们的行为
hedge fund:对冲基金;
And if you engineer what they do you can change the world, you can get a better result. 如果你可以操纵行为,那你就可以改变世界 你可以得到一个更好的结果
I would like to leave you with one thought, which is for me, the dominant theme of this gathering, and is the dominant theme of this way of thinking about the world. 我最终想说的一点是 对我来说,这次集会的宗旨就是 也就是应该是我们看待这个世界的宗旨
dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性;
When people say to you, "That's impossible," 当有人说 “这不可能”
you say back to them, "When you say 'That's impossible,' you're confused with, 'I don't know how to do it.'" 你回应道 “当你说‘不可能’的时候” 你其实在说 “我不知道怎样去做”
confused:adj.困惑的; v.使糊涂; (confuse的过去分词和过去式)
Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) 鼓掌
Chris Anderson: One question for you. 我有一个问题
That was fascinating . 那太让人着迷了
fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词)
I love that you put it out there. 我很喜欢你刚才讲的
I got very nervous halfway through the talk though, just panicking whether you'd included in your model, the possibility that putting this prediction out there might change the result. 你说到一半的时候,我变得很紧张 在你的模型中, 你是否认为 公布你的预测可能会改变未来结果
panicking:v.(使)惊慌,惊慌失措;(panic的现在分词)
We've got 800 people in Tehran who watch TEDTalks. 我们在德黑兰有800个人在观看TEDTalks
Tehran:n.德黑兰;
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: I've thought about that, since I've done a lot of work for the intelligence community, they've also pondered that. 我想过这个问题 因为我和情报机构进行了大量的工作 他们也想过这个问题
Bueno:n.甲酮钠除草剂; pondered:vt.仔细考虑;衡量;vi.考虑;沉思;
It would be a good thing if people paid more attention, took seriously, and engaged in the same sorts of calculations, because it would change things. But it would change things in two beneficial ways. 如果人人都投入更多的注意力 更加的重视它 进行同样的计算预测 我们可以改变很多的事情。 益处主要是两个方面的
beneficial:adj.有益的,有利的;可享利益的;
It would hasten how quickly people arrive at an agreement, and so it would save everybody a lot of grief and time. 它可以催促人们达成一个协议 所以大家都可以省很多不必要悲伤和时间
hasten:vt.加速;使赶紧;催促;vi.赶快;急忙; grief:n.悲痛;忧伤;不幸;
And, it would arrive at an agreement that everybody was happy with, without having to manipulate them so much -- which is basically what I do, I manipulate them. 然后,这个种协议是皆大欢喜的 不用进行太多的操控 那就是我所做的,操控结果
manipulate:vt.操纵;操作;巧妙地处理;篡改; basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
So it would be a good thing. 所以,这是一个很好的东西
CA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran, this is your destiny , lets go there." 那么,你就是在试着说:“伊朗的人们, 这就是你的命运, 大家就这样做吧.
destiny:n.命运,定数,天命;
BBM: Well, people of Iran, this is what many of you are going to evolve to want, and we could get there a lot sooner, and you would suffer a lot less trouble from economic sanctions , 我会说,伊朗的人们, 这就是你们期望达到的结果 我们可以更快的达成协议 你们可以少受一点经济制裁
evolve:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成; sanctions:n.制裁; v.许可; (sanction的第三人称单数和复数)
and we would suffer a lot less fear of the use of military force on our end, and the world would be a better place. 我们可以少一点军事行动的恐惧 这个世界将会变得更加美好
military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
CA: Here's hoping they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce. 我们希望他们是这样认为的。谢谢你布鲁斯
BBM: Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) 鼓掌