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BillGross_2015U-_创業成功最关键的因素_
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| I'm really excited to share with you some findings that really surprise me about what makes companies succeed the most, what factors actually matter the most for startup success. |
我非常高兴与大家分享 令我非常惊讶的研究结果 是有关创業成功的关键因素 实际影响创業成功与否最关键的因素是什么 |
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findings:n.调查发现;判决;裁决;(finding的复数) factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
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| I believe that the startup organization is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place. |
我认为创業 是使得世界变得更加美好的方式之一 |
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organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
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| If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives and organize them in a startup, you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible. |
如果你带领一组团队给他们适当的激励奖金 开创一个事業 你可以用前所未有的方式开启人类的潜能 |
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equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值; incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施; organize:v.组织;安排;处理;分配;管理; potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
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| You get them to achieve unbelievable things. |
你让团队达到令人难以置信的成功 |
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unbelievable:adj.(非正式)难以置信的;不可信的
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| But if the startup organization is so great, why do so many fail? |
但是既然创業是如此美好 为什么有这么多人失败？ |
| That's what I wanted to find out. |
这是我想要找出原因的地方 |
| I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success. |
我想要找出导致创業成功 最关键的因素 |
| And I wanted to try to be systematic about it, avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have from so many companies I've seen over the years. |
而且我试着系统化地找出关键因素 以避免我的直觉和我的认知错误影响结果 我观察多年来我见过的许多公司 |
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systematic:adj.系统的;体系的;有系统的;[图情]分类的;一贯的,惯常的; instincts:n.本能;天性;直觉;(instinct的复数) misperceptions:知觉错误(misperception的复数);
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| I wanted to know this because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school , to high school, when I made solar energy devices , to college, when I made loudspeakers . |
想要了解创業成功的关键因素 因为我从十二岁就开始做生意 就读初中时,我在公车站卖糖果 高中时,我制作太阳能的装置 大学时,我制作扩音器 |
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junior high school:初中; devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数); loudspeakers:扬声器;扩音器;
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| And when I graduated from college, I started software companies. |
大学毕業后,我成立软体公司 |
| And 20 years ago, I started Idealab, and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies, many successes, and many big failures. |
20 年前,我成立一家公司叫「创意实验室」(Idealab) 在这 20 年当中,我创办超过 100 家公司 很多是成功的企業,但也有很失败的 |
| We learned a lot from those failures. |
我们从失败中学到许多宝贵经验 |
| So I tried to look across what factors accounted the most for company success and failure. |
所以我试着找出是什么因素 导致一家公司成功或失败 |
| So I looked at these five. |
我找出五个因素 |
| First, the idea. |
第一个因素是,创意 |
| I used to think that the idea was everything. |
我以前认为有创新的点子最重要 |
| I named my company Idealab for how much I worship the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea. |
我把我的公司名为「创意实验室」就知道我多么看重这个因素 「啊！有了！」的当下有一个想法从脑中浮现 |
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worship:n.崇拜;崇敬;爱慕;阁下;v.崇拜(上帝或神);做礼拜;热爱;崇拜; come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
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| But then over time, |
但随着时间的过去 |
| I came to think that maybe the team, the execution , adaptability , that mattered even more than the idea. |
我开始想或许团队成员、执行力及适应力 甚至比创意还重要 |
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execution:n.执行,实行;完成;死刑; adaptability:n.适应性;可变性;适合性;
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| I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage, but he once said, "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter) |
我从没想过会在 TED 讲台上引用拳击手麦克?泰森的话 但他曾经说过 「每个人都有自己的计画,直到他们脸上挨了一拳」（笑声） |
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quoting:v.引用;报价;举例说明;开价;为(企业的股份)上市;(quote的现在分词) punched:v.拳打;以拳痛击;给…打孔;按(键);(punch的过去分词和过去式)
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| And I think that's so true about business as well. |
这句话可以完全适用在商场上 |
| So much about a team's execution is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer. |
团队有是否有很强的执行力 完全在于他们能否能适应被客户拳头打在脸上的能力 |
| The customer is the true reality. |
客户的反应才是真正的现实 |
| And that's why I came to think that the team maybe was the most important thing. |
这就是为何我开始思考 或许团队才是最重要的因素 |
| Then I started looking at the business model. |
然后我又开始研究「商業模式」 |
| Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues ? |
一个企業有明确的产生营收的方法吗？ |
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generating:v.产生;引起;(generate的现在分词) revenues:n.[会计]收入;税收;[会计]收益;营业收入(revenue的复数形式);
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| That started rising to the top in my thinking about maybe what mattered most for success. |
因此我开始思考 或许这才是成功最关键的因素 |
| Then I looked at the funding . |
然后,我也考虑「募资」这个因素 |
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funding:n.基金;资金;提供资金;v.为…提供资金;拨款给;(fund的现在分词)
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| Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding. |
有时后,企業筹得一大笔资金 |
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intense:adj.强烈的;紧张的;非常的;热情的;
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| Maybe that's the most important thing? |
或许这才是最重要因素？ |
| And then of course, the timing. |
再来当然是「时机」 |
| Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it? |
你脑海中的那个想法会不会现在还不适用呢？ |
| Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world? |
会不会现在开始还太早?你必须教育消费者？ |
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in advance:adv.预先,提前;
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| Is it just right? |
时机点刚刚好？ |
| Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors? |
或者太晚,市场上早已有大批的竞争者？ |
| So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies. |
我试着仔细地以这五个因素 用来研究大量的公司 |
| And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies, and 100 non-Idealab companies to try and come up with something scientific about it. |
包括我创立的一百家公司 和一百家非我创立的公司 试着以科学方法找出关键的因素 |
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scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
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| So first, on these Idealab companies, the top five companies -- those all became billion-dollar successes. |
首先,在我成立的公司 其中最成功的五家公司 这五家公司非常赚钱 |
| And the five companies on the bottom -- we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed. |
而五家最差的公司,分别是 我们对这些公司抱有很高的期望但仍然没有成功 |
| So I tried to rank across all of those attributes how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions . |
所以试着找出这些因素的排名 这些公司如何在每一个因素中取得分数 |
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attributes:v.把…归因于; n.属性; (attribute的第三人称单数和复数) dimensions:n.规模,大小;
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| And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes, like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn . |
在非我建立的公司名单中我找了一些极度成功的例子 |
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Airbnb:寻找奇居;爱本卜(一个网站); Instagram:照片分享(一款运行在iPhone平台上的应用程序); Uber:adj.最好的;?超级的;n.Uber(公司品牌名)优步; LinkedIn:人际关系网;邻客音;社交网站;
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| And some failures: |
也找了一些失败的公司 |
| Flooz and Friendster. |
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| The bottom companies had intense funding, they even had business models in some cases, but they didn't succeed. |
这些不成功的公司,筹得大笔资金 有的甚至有商業模式 但是没能成功 |
| I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most for success and failure across all of these companies, and the results really surprised me. |
我试着研究,什么因素对这些公司的成功和失败 占有最高的比率 结果让我很讶异 |
| The number one thing was timing. |
最重要的因素是「时机」 |
| Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure. |
这个比率是成功与失败公司之间的差异 |
| Team and execution came in second, and the idea, the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea, that actually came in third. |
「团队」和「执行力」排第二名 然后是「创意」 创意的可辨性,创意的独特性 实际上排第三名 |
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uniqueness:n.独特性;独一无二;单值性;
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| Now, this isn't absolutely definitive , it's not to say that the idea isn't important, but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing. |
这个研究并不是絶对完整 并不是说「创意」不重要 但令我讶异的是「创意」不是最重要的 |
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absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; definitive:n.限定词;adj.决定性的;最后的;限定的;
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| Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed. |
有时比较重要的,其实是「时机」 |
| The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually. |
最后二个是「商業模式」和「募资」这是可以理解的 |
| I think business model makes sense to be that low because you can start out without a business model and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating. |
我想「商業模式」获得较低的排名是有道理的 因为没有商業模式,也可以创業 你的客户有需求时,再将商業模式加入 |
| And funding, I think as well, if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction , especially in today's age, it's very, very easy to get intense funding. |
募资也是一样道理 即使刚开始没有资金但公司越来越受欢迎 尤其是现在这时代 你就很容易筹得一大笔资金 |
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underfunded:adj.资金不足的;v.对…提供的资金不足(underfund的过去分词); traction:n.牵引;[机][车辆]牵引力; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
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| So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these. |
让我举几一些具体的例子 |
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specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
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| So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about. |
例如,大家熟知的、高度成功的 Airbnb |
| Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors because people thought, "No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger." |
这间公司被许多聪明的投资者忽略 因为大家认为 「没有人要将自家的房间出租给陌生人」 |
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famously:adv.著名地;极好地;
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| Of course, people proved that wrong. |
但事实证明这个想法是错的 |
| But one of the reasons it succeeded, aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution, is the timing. |
它成功的因素之一 除了好的商業模式好创意及优秀的执行力外 那就是「时机」 |
| That company came out right during the height of the recession when people really needed extra money, and that maybe helped people overcome their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger. |
公司创立之时刚好是在经济衰退的高点 人们需要额外的收入 这或许可以幫助人们克服 不喜欢将自己的房间出租给陌生人心态 |
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recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回; extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外: overcome:vt.克服;胜过;vi.克服;得胜; objection:n.反对;反对的理由;异议;
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| Same thing with Uber. |
优步 (Uber) 也是相同的情况 |
| Uber came out, incredible company, incredible business model, great execution, too. |
优步成立之时 是个相当不错的公司具有优异的商業模式 也有很强的执行力 |
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incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的;
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| But the timing was so perfect for their need to get drivers into the system. |
成立的时间点是如此完美 他们需要将计程车司机纳入公司系统 |
| Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important. |
而司机也在寻找额外的收入这一点相当重要 |
| Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages. |
「Citysearch」是我们早期成功的公司,因应当时人们有网页的需求而成立 |
| was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic. |
正逢当时企業在寻找符合成本效益的方法,取得网路流量 |
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cost-effective:adj.划算的;成本效益好的(等于cost-efficient);
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| We thought the idea was so great, but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important. |
我们认为想这个点子真好 但事实上,时机或许更重要 |
| And then some of our failures. |
我们也有一些失败公司的例子 |
| We were so excited about it -- we raised enough money, we had a great business model, we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company. |
我们对这家公司充满期望 我们筹措足够的资金具备很好的商業模式 甚至与好莱坞极的优秀人才签约加入这个公司 |
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incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地;
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| But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000. |
但在 1999-2000 年宽频的普及率太低 |
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broadband:n.宽频;宽波段;adj.宽频带的;宽波段的;宽频通讯的; penetration:n.渗透;突破;侵入;洞察力;
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| It was too hard to watch video content online, you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff , and the company eventually went out of business in 2003. |
人们要在网路观看影片很困难 我们必须在用户端的浏览器置入转码器协助用户完成这个工作 这公司最后在 2003 年结束营業 |
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content:n.内容,目录;满足;容量;adj.满意的;vt.使满足; browser:n.[计]浏览器;吃嫩叶的动物;浏览书本的人; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: eventually:adv.最后,终于; out of business:破产;歇业;停业;倒闭;
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| Just two years later, when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America, |
仅尽二年之后 Adobe Flash 解决了转码的问题 并且,美国的宽频普及率超过百分之五十 |
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codec:n.编码解码器;多媒体数字信号编解码器; Adobe:n.(建筑用)黏土;黏土坯;adj.用砖坯砌的; Flash:n.闪光; v.闪光; adj.庞大的;
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| YouTube was perfectly timed. |
YouTube 就在这样一个完美的时间点成立了 |
| Great idea, but unbelievable timing. |
好的创意,配上绝佳的时机 |
| In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started. |
事实上,YouTube 在成立之初并没有商業模式 |
| It wasn't even certain that that would work out. |
甚至不确定他们会成功 |
| But that was beautifully, beautifully timed. |
但它就成功在于遇上如此完美的时间点 |
| So what I would say, in summary , is execution definitely matters a lot. |
总之,我要表达的是 「执行力」当然重要 |
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summary:adj.简易的;扼要的;n.概要,摘要,总结; definitely:adv.清楚地,当然;明确地,肯定地;
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| The idea matters a lot. |
「创意」也很重要 |
| But timing might matter even more. |
但「时机」更加重要 |
| And the best way to really assess timing is to really look at whether consumers are really ready for what you have to offer them. |
评估时机最好的方式 是观察消费者是否已经准备好 接受你要提供给他们的产品或服务 |
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assess:vt.评定;估价;对…征税; consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数)
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| And to be really, really honest about it, not be in denial about any results that you see, because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward, but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing. |
你要非常、非常诚实地考虑这个问题 不要否认你所看到的结果 因为如果有你喜欢的事業你要往前推动 你就必须非常诚实地考虑「时机」这个因素 |
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denial:n.否认;否定;剥夺(应有的权利);拒不承认(令人不快、痛苦的事);
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| As I said earlier, |
如我稍早所说的 |
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As I said:正如我所说的
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| I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place. |
创業可以改变这个世界让世界变得更美好 |
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startups:n.创业(startup的复数);开办;
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| I hope some of these insights can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio, and thus make something great come to the world that wouldn't have happened otherwise. |
我希望今天的这些观察 或许可以幫助你提升创業成功率 让那些原本可能不会发生的创意点子 在现实世界里开花结果 |
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insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数); slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地;
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| Thank you very much, you've been a great audience. |
谢谢大家,你们是很棒的听众 |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |