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BillGates_2015-_下次的疫情暴发?我们还没准备好_
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When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. |
当我还是小孩时, 我们最担心的灾害是核战争。 |
disaster:n.灾难,灾祸;不幸; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
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That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. |
所以我们在地下室有个这样的筒子, 装满了罐头食物和水。 |
barrel:n.桶;枪管;一桶(的量);v.飞驰;
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When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs , hunker down, and eat out of that barrel. |
当核战争爆发时, 我们就要躲到地下室去,蹲低身子并靠那个筒子维生。 |
supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) downstairs:adv.在楼下;往楼下;adj.楼下的;n.楼下(尤指地面的一层); hunker:vi.蹲下,盘坐;n.守旧者;
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Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesn't look like this. |
今天的全球灾难最大的危险 看起来已不像这样了。 |
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败;
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Instead, it looks like this. |
事实上,会像这样。 |
If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. |
如果有什么东西在未来几十年里可以杀掉上千万人, 那比较有可能是个高度传染的病毒, 而不是战争。 |
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; infectious:adj.传染的;传染性的;易传染的;
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Not missiles , but microbes . |
不是导弹,而是微生物。 |
missiles:n.导弹;发射物;投掷物;(missile的复数) microbes:n.细菌,[微]微生物;微生物类(microbe的复数形式);
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Now, part of the reason for this is that we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents . |
部分的理由是因为 我们在核威慑上投注了很大的精力和金钱。 |
invested:v.投资;投入;(invest的过去分词和过去式) deterrents:n.阻碍剂;妨碍物(deterrent的复数);
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But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic . |
但是我们在防止疫情的系统上却投资很少。 |
epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的;
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We're not ready for the next epidemic. |
我们还没有准备好预防下一场大疫情的发生。 |
Let's look at Ebola . |
让我们看看埃博拉病毒。 |
Ebola:n.埃博拉病毒;
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I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. |
我相信大家在报纸上都有读到这样的新闻, 充满了许多艰难的挑战。 |
I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication . |
用我们追踪消灭脊髓灰质炎(小儿麻痹)的案例分析工具, 我仔细地追踪这病毒的发展。 |
analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪; polio:n.小儿麻痹症(等于poliomyelitis);脊髓灰质炎; eradication:n.消灭,扑灭;根除;
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And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough, the problem was that we didn't have a system at all. |
随着疫情的发展我们可以看到, 问题不在于我们没有一套可以使用的系统, 而是我们根本没有任何系统。 |
In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces. |
事实上我们可以看到有几个很明显的不足。 |
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的;
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We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. |
我们找不到一群准备好了的流行病学家, 能去疫区看看病理和病情发展。 |
epidemiologists:n.流行病学家(epidemiologist的复数); disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
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The case reports came in on paper. |
病例都是由纸上报道传来的。 |
It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate . |
信息传上线时已经很晚了, 此外还很不准确。 |
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; inaccurate:adj.错误的;
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We didn't have a medical team ready to go. |
我们也找不到训练有素的医护小组。 |
We didn't have a way of preparing people. |
我们没有一套让人们严阵以待的方法。 |
Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers . |
目前,“无国界医生”在动员志愿者上做了很大的贡献。 |
orchestrating:v.精心安排;编配或创作管弦乐曲;策划;密谋;(orchestrate的现在分词) volunteers:n.志愿者; v.自愿做; (volunteer的第三人称单数和复数)
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But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. |
但即使如此,我们调动数千名工作者到疫区的速度 还是十分差强人意的。 |
And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. |
大的疫情会需要我们动员数十万的人员, |
There was no one there to look at treatment approaches . |
但我们没有任何人在研究治疗的方向。 |
treatment:n.治疗;疗法;对待;处理;讨论; approaches:v.靠近,接近; n.方式,方法,态度;
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No one to look at the diagnostics . |
也没有人在看诊断的方法。 |
diagnostics:n.诊断学(用作单数);
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No one to figure out what tools should be used. |
没有人在想该用什么工具。 |
As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. |
举个例子来说,我们也许可以抽取生还者的血液, 处理过后,再将血浆注入人体内来保护没得病的人。 |
processed:v.加工,处理;审核;列队行进;(process的过去式和过去分词) plasma:n.[等离子]等离子体;血浆;[矿物]深绿玉髓;
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But that was never tried. |
但是这个方法从来没有试过, |
So there was a lot that was missing. |
所以有很多事都还没来得及做。 |
And these things are really a global failure. |
而这的确是全球性的失败。 |
The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics , but not to do these things I talked about. |
世界卫生组织的目的是来监视流行病,而不是来做我刚讲的事。 |
funded:adj.提供资金的;v.提供资金;积存;提供资金偿付的本息;(fund的过去式); epidemics:n.流行病;蔓延(epidemic的复数);时疫;
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Now, in the movies it's quite different. |
但是在电影中演的剧情又是另一回事。 |
There's a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but that's just pure Hollywood. |
有一群很英俊的流行病学家准备就绪, 他们到了疫区拯救了大家,但这是纯好莱坞的剧情。 |
The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola |
我们的准备不足 ,可能会导致下一场疫情, 比埃博拉病毒的危害更严重。 |
dramatically:adv.戏剧地;引人注目地;adv.显著地,剧烈地; devastating:adj.毁灭性的; v.毁灭; (devastate的现在分词)
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Let's look at the progression of Ebola over this year. |
让我们看看埃博拉病毒在过去一年中的发展。 |
progression:n.前进;连续;
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About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. |
大约死了一万人, 所有的死者都在西非的三个国家里。 |
There's three reasons why it didn't spread more. |
之所以没有扩散的原因有三个。 |
The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. |
第一个是卫生工作人员作的很多英雄事迹。 |
heroic:adj.英雄的;英勇的;记叙英雄及其事迹的;夸张的;n.史诗;英勇行为;
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They found the people and they prevented more infections . |
他们找到很多病人并防止了更多人得病。 |
infections:n.传染病;口腔病害(infection复数形式);
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The second is the nature of the virus. |
第二个是病毒的特性, |
Ebola does not spread through the air. |
埃博拉病毒不是靠空气传染的。 |
And by the time you're contagious , most people are so sick that they're bedridden . |
等到你有足够的传染力时, 大部分的人已经病得卧床不起了。 |
contagious:adj.感染性的;会蔓延的; bedridden:adj.卧床不起的;
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Third, it didn't get into many urban areas. |
第三个是因为病毒没有传到都会区。 |
urban:adj.城市的;都市的;城镇的;都市音乐的;
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And that was just luck. |
这纯粹是运气好。 |
If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger. |
如果病毒传到了都会区, 那么死亡的人数绝对不止于此。 |
So next time, we might not be so lucky. |
所以下一次我们可能不会这么幸运了。 |
You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. |
有的病毒可能让你毫无察觉,但当感染病毒的人乘飞机或者去逛商场, 他们其实已经具有一定的传染力了。 |
The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism . |
此外病毒的来源可以是天然的,像埃博拉病毒, 或是由生物恐怖攻击产生的。 |
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料; bioterrorism:n.生物恐怖主义;
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So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse. |
所以可以让疫情惨上千倍的病毒是存在的。 |
literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
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In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. |
事实上,让我们来看看一个病毒由空气传染的模型, 像1918年的西班牙流感。 |
So here's what would happen: |
疫情有可能像这样发展: |
It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. |
病毒会以很快的速度向全世界蔓延。 |
throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
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And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. |
你可以看到全球有三千万人死于这个疾病。 |
So this is a serious problem. |
这就是个很严重的问题。 |
We should be concerned . |
我们绝不应该忽视。 |
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词)
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But in fact, we can build a really good response system. |
但事实上我们可以建立一个很好的反应系统。 |
response:n.响应;反应;回答;
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We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. |
我们可以利用所有发展至今的科技和科学。 |
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
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We've got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. |
我们可以用手机 来收集信息和发布信息。 |
We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they're moving. |
我们有卫星地图可以看到人们在哪里和往哪移动。 |
We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. |
我们在生物学上也有进展, 这可以大幅缩短我们找到病原的时间, 并可以在很短的时间里找出解药和疫苗。 |
biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; turnaround:n.转变;转向;突然好转;回车道; pathogen:n.病原体;病菌; vaccines:n.[药][计]疫苗;
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So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. |
所以我们是有工具的, 但这些工具必须统合在一个全球健康系统下。 |
overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
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And we need preparedness . |
此外我们必须处在准备好的状态。 |
preparedness:n.有准备;已准备;做好准备(尤指作战准备);
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The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared are again, what we do for war. |
而我们如何做好准备, 最好的例子还是来自于备战。 |
For soldiers, we have full-time , waiting to go. |
对军人来说,他们是随时随地都准备好要投入战争的。 |
full-time:adj.专职的;全日制的;全部时间的;
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We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers. |
我们还有预备军人,能使备战人口大量增加。 |
reserves:n.[油气]储量; v.储备; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
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NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. |
北约组织有个机动小组,可以很快地行动起来。 |
NATO:abbr.(=theNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization)[组]北约; mobile:n.手机;汽车;移动电话;adj.活跃的;可动的; deploy:v.部署;利用;[军事]展开;(使)张开;
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NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained? |
北约组织有很多战争游戏可以测试人员是否已训练有素? |
Do they understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies ? |
他们是否了解燃油,补给 和相同的收音机频率? |
logistics:n.[军]后勤;后勤学;物流; frequencies:n.频率;发生率;重复率;频繁;(frequency的复数)
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So they are absolutely ready to go. |
是的话,那么他们就已准备好了。 |
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
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So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic. |
这些就是面对疫情时我们该准备的事。 |
What are the key pieces? |
关键的项目有哪些? |
First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. |
第一,在贫穷的国家里必须有发达的卫生系统。 |
That's where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. |
母亲们可以安全地生小孩, 小孩们可以接种疫苗。 |
But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early on. |
我们也可以在很早的阶段侦查到疫情的爆发。 |
outbreak:n.(战争的)爆发;(疾病的)发作;vi.爆发;
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We need a medical reserve corps : lots of people who've got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise . |
我们需要后备的医疗部队: 还有很多训练有素的专业人员, 随时准备好能带着他们专长到疫区。 |
corps:n.兵团;(陆军)特种部队;(从事某工作或活动的)一群人; expertise:n.专门知识;专门技术;专家的意见;
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And then we need to pair those medical people with the military . |
我们可以用军队来配合医护人员, |
military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
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taking advantage of the military's ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas. |
利用军队移动迅速的特性, 来进行后勤运输和维持安全。 |
advantage:n.有利条件:优势:优点:
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We need to do simulations , germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. |
我们也需要进行一些情境模拟, 不是进行战争游戏而是进行病菌游戏 ,看看防卫漏洞在哪。 |
simulations:n.[计]模拟(simulation的复数);[计]仿真; germ:n.[植]胚芽,萌芽;细菌;vi.萌芽;
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The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well. |
上一次的病菌游戏是在美国进行的, 那是在2001年了, 进行得也不是很顺利。 |
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
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So far the score is germs : 1, people: 0. |
目前病菌得一分人类零分。 |
germs:n.[微]细菌; v.发生(germ的单三形式);
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Finally , we need lots of advanced RD in areas of vaccines and diagnostics. |
最后我们在疫苗和病理学上还需要很多的研发工作。 |
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; advanced:adj.先进的; v.前进; (advance的过去式和过去分词形式)
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There are some big breakthroughs , like the Adeno-associated virus, that could work very, very quickly. |
在某些方面例如腺相关病毒上,我们已经有了相当的突破, 这可以在很短的时间内生效。 |
breakthroughs:突破;
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Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost, but I'm quite sure it's very modest compared to the potential harm. |
我目前没有明确的预算这到底需要多少钱, 但是我确信跟损失比起来是比较便宜的。 |
budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的; modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的; compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词) potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
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The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and we'd have millions and millions of deaths. |
根据世界银行的估算,如果我们有流感的疫情暴发, 全球经济会损失三万多亿美元。 我们还会可能有千百万人员的死亡。 |
World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构); estimates:n.估计;估价;估计的成本;v.估价;估算(estimate的第三人称单数和复数) worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
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These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. |
跟仅仅只是准备好比起来, 这些额外的投资会带来显着的益处。 |
investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数) significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
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The primary healthcare , the RD, those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as more safe. |
基础的卫生保健,研发, 可以促进全球健康的平衡发展, 让这个世界更健康更安全。 |
healthcare:n.医疗保健;健康护理,健康服务;卫生保健; equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值; as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且;
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So I think this should absolutely be a priority . |
所以我觉得这非常重要重要。刻不容缓。 |
priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事;
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There's no need to panic . |
不需要惊慌。 |
panic:adj.恐慌的;n.惊恐;恐慌;惶恐不安;v.惊慌失措;
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We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. |
我们不需要囤积面罐头或是躲到地下室去, |
hoard:v.积聚钱财;贮藏;n.贮藏物; spaghetti:n.意大利式细面条;
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But we need to get going, because time is not on our side. |
但是我们必须急起直追,因为时间有限。 |
In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it's that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call , to get ready. |
事实上,要说这场埃博拉病毒的疫情带来了什么正面影响的话, 那就是提早响起了警报,让我们觉醒并做好准备。 |
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; wake-up call:叫醒电话;叫醒服务;警钟;唤醒服务;
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If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic. |
我们如果即刻开始准备,那么在下一场疫情来临前我们是可以准备好的。 |
Thank you. |
谢谢大家。 |
(Applause) |
(掌声) |