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BillGates_2011U-_美国各州预算如何危害教育_
Well, this is about state budgets . 这与州预算有关
budgets:n.[财政]预算(budget复数形式);v.为…做预算(budget的第三人称单数形式);
This is probably the most boring topic of the whole morning. 这可能是整个上午 最无聊的话题
boring:adj.无聊的;令人厌烦的;n.钻孔;v.使厌烦;钻孔;(bore的现在分词)
But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic that we need to care about. 但是我想告诉你们,我认为这是个重要的话题 值得我们关注
State budgets are big, big money -- 州预算 是一大笔钱－－
I'll show you the numbers -- and they get very little scrutiny . 我给大家看这些数字－－ 而这些数字几乎没有经过审计
scrutiny:n.详细审查;监视;细看;选票复查;
The understanding is very low. 这令人费解
Many of the people involved have special interests or short-term interests that get them not thinking about what the implications of the trends are. 许多相关人员 只看到特殊或短期的利益 而忽视了 这么做在将来会产生什么后果
involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) short-term:adj.短期的; implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数); trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
And these budgets are the key for our future; they're the key for our kids. 这些预算 对于我们的未来至关重要 它们是孩子成长的关键
Most education funding -- whether it's K through 12, or the great universities or community colleges -- most of the money for those things is coming out of these state budgets. 绝大多数教育资金－－ 不论是幼儿园到高中 还是重点大学或社区大学－－ 大多数被投入这些方面的资金 都是从州预算中拨出
funding:n.基金;资金;提供资金;v.为…提供资金;拨款给;(fund的现在分词) community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
But we have a problem. 但这里出了个问题
Here's the overall picture. 这是总体的情况
overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
U.S. economy is big -- 14.7 trillion . 美国的经济非常庞大－－ 十四万七千亿
economy:n.经济;节约;理财; trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
Now out of that pie, the government spends 36 percent. 而在这块馅饼中 政府开支占了36%
So this is combining the federal level, which is the largest, the state level and the local level. 这是联邦政府一级－－ 也就是最大的这部分－－ 州一级、地方一级的支出总和
federal:adj.联邦的;同盟的;联邦政府的;联邦制的;adv.联邦政府地;
And it's really in this combined way that you get an overall sense of what's going on, because there's a lot of complex things like Medicaid and research money that flow across those boundaries . 只有从整体的角度看 你才能大体了解实际的情况 因为里面有许多复杂的事情 如医疗保障以及研究经费 在这些分界线之间
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; Medicaid:n.(美)医疗补助计划; boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数)
But we're spending 36 percent. 但我们的支出占了36%
Well what are we taking in? 而我们的收入是多少？
Simple business question. 简单的商业问题
Answer is 26 percent. 答案是26%
Now this leaves 10 percent deficit . 那么10%的赤字就产生了
deficit:n.赤字;逆差;亏损;不足额;
Sort of a mind-blowing number. 有点骇人听闻
mind-blowing:adj.使兴奋的;引起幻觉的;
And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact that we've had an economic recession . 在某种程度上,这是由于 我们刚遭受了经济衰退的影响
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回;
Receipts go down, some spending programs go up, but most of it is not because of that. 收入降低 而一些支出项目增多 然而这些并不是主要原因
Receipts:n.收据;收到;收到的款项,收入;(receipt的复数)
Most of it is because of ways that the liabilities are building up and the trends, and that creates a huge challenge. 主要原因在于 负债不断累积 后果逐渐暴露 因而产生了一个巨大的挑战
liabilities:n.[会计]负债;债务(liability复数形式);碍事的人或物;
In fact, this is the forecast picture. 实际上,这就是未来的发展趋势
forecast:n.预测;预报;v.预测;预报;
There are various things in here, 这里涉及了不同的内容
I could say we might raise more revenue , or medical innovation will make the spending even higher. 可以说我们可能会筹到更多收入 或着说,医疗创新的支出将增大
revenue:n.收益;营业额;税务署; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
It is an increasingly difficult picture, even assuming the economy does quite well -- probably better than it will do. 事态越来越严重 这还是在经济发展景气下的预期－－ 也许比实际情况要乐观一些
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地; assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
This is what you see at this overall level. 这是从总体角度 所看到的情况
Now how did we get here? 那么我们是怎么落到这一地步的？
How could you have a problem like this? 怎么会出现这样的问题？
After all, at least on paper, there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced. 毕竟,至少在书面上 白纸黑字写着这些州政府的预算是收支平衡的
notion:n.观念;信念;理解;
Only one state says they don't have to balance the budget. 只有一个州报告说 他们不需要平衡预算
But what this means actually is that there's a pretense . 言下之意就是 其中存在猫腻
pretense:n.借口;虚假;炫耀;自吹(等于pretence);
There's no real, true balancing going on. 根本不存在真正意义上的收支平衡
And in a sense , the games they play to hide that actually obscure the topic so much that people don't see things that are actually pretty straight forward challenges. 但从某种意义上说,他们所玩的把戏 实际上掩盖了实质问题 模糊了人们的视线 看不到迫在眉睫的挑战
in a sense:在某种意义上; obscure:n.朦胧; adj.无名的; v.使模糊;
When Jerry Brown was elected, this was the challenge that was put to him. 杰里·布朗当选加州州长后 这些挑战就等着他来应付了
That is, through various gimmicks and things, a so-called balanced budget had led him to have 25 billion missing out of the 76 billion in proposed spending. 通过许多不为人知的手段 一份所谓的收支平衡的预算报告出炉了 结果,在他所提议的760亿支出中 有250亿元的空白
gimmicks:n.花招,把戏,噱头;(gimmick的复数) so-called:adj.所谓的;号称的; proposed:adj.建议的;推荐的;v.提议;建议;计划;求婚;(propose的过去分词和过去式)
Now he's put together some thoughts: 现在他整理了一下思路:
put together:..放在一起;组合;装配;
About half of that he'll cut, another half, perhaps in a very complex set of steps, taxes will be approved . 他将要削减一半的支出 而另一半 也许可以通过非常繁琐的一系列步骤 能够通过收税来弥补
approved:adj.被正式接受的,被正式认可的; v.赞成; (approve的过去分词和过去式)
But even so, as you go out into those future years, various pension costs, health costs go up enough, and the revenue does not go up enough. 但即便如此 几年以后 各项补贴,医疗成本都会提高 而政府收入提高的幅度不够
pension:n.养老金;退休金;抚恤金;adj.有关退休金的;v.给…养老金[恤金,津贴等];
So you get a big squeeze . 那到时候你就捉襟见肘了
squeeze:v.挤;紧握;勒索;压榨;n.压榨;紧握;拥挤;佣金;
What were those things that allowed us to hide this? 我们通过什么样的手段掩盖了这一切？
Well, some really nice little tricks. 一些非常高明的把戏
And these were somewhat noticed. 这些把戏多少已经露出了马脚
somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
The paper said, "It's not really balanced." 报告上说:“收支并未真正平衡。”
'"It's got holes." “其中有猫腻。”
'"It perpetuates deficit spending." “这使得赤字不断扩大。”
perpetuates:vt.使不朽;保持;adj.长存的;
'"It's riddled with gimmicks." “其中充满了骗人的把戏。”
riddled:adj.布满的;遍布的;到处是…的;v.使布满窟窿;(riddle的过去分词和过去式)
And really when you get down to it, the guys at Enron never would have done this. 如果你仔细进行调查 安然公司的那帮人绝对不会得逞
get down to:开始认真考虑;着手处理;
This is so blatant , so extreme . 这太明目张胆了 太极端了
blatant:adj.喧嚣的;公然的;炫耀的;俗丽的; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物;
Is anyone paying attention to some of the things these guys do? 难道没有人注意到 这些人的所做所为吗？
They borrow money. 他们借东家补西家
They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way. 他们本不应这么做,但他们还是想出了对策
supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式)
They make you pay more in withholding just to help their cash flow out. 他们让你缴纳更多税钱 帮助他们周转资金
withholding:v.拒绝给;不给;(withhold的现在分词) cash flow:现金流转;
They sell off the assets . 他们变卖资产
assets:n.资产;宝贵的人材;(一项)财物;资产;(asset的名词复数)
They defer the payments . 他们赊账
defer:vi.推迟;延期;服从;vt.使推迟;使延期; payments:n.付款;支付;收款;款项;报答;(payment的复数)
They sell off the revenues from tobacco. 他们变卖烟草的收入
revenues:n.[会计]收入;税收;[会计]收益;营业收入(revenue的复数形式);
And California's not unique . 加利福尼亚州不是唯一的案例
unique:adj.独特的,稀罕的;[数]唯一的;n.独一无二的人或物;
In fact, there's about five states that are worse and only really four states that don't face this big challenge. 实际上,约有五个州的情况比加州更严重 只有四个州 不存在这样巨大的挑战
So it's systemic across the entire country. 这在整个国家已形成了体系
systemic:adj.系统的;全身的;体系的;
It really comes from the fact that certain long-term obligations -- health care where innovation makes it more expensive, early retirement and pension where the age structure gets worse for you, and just generosity -- that these mis-accounting things allow to develop over time, that you've got a problem. 挑战来自于 某些长期的支出项目－－ 医学创新需要花更多的钱 提早退休与养老金等问题让你对年龄结构更加头疼 还有公益事业－－ 这些方面的假帐 如果持续发展下去 就会出现问题
long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; obligations:n.[法]义务;债务;承付款项(obligation的复数); health care:n.卫生保健; retirement:n.退休;退职;退休年龄;退休生活; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造; generosity:n.慷慨,大方;宽宏大量;
This is the retiree health care benefits. 这是退休人员的医疗福利
retiree:n.(美)退休人员;歇业者;
Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability -- much worse than the car companies. 预算拨款为三百万美元,而实际负债为620亿美元－－ 这比汽车公司的情况遭多了
liability:n.责任;债务;倾向;可能性;不利因素;
And everybody looked at that and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem. 不管是谁看了 都知道这最终会产生巨大的问题
The forecast for the medical piece alone is to go from 26 percent of the budget to 42 percent. 医疗预算的走势 将从预算的26% 增加到42%
Well what's going to give? 钱从哪里来？
Well in order to accommodate that, you would have to cut education spending in half. 为了照顾这一块 你不得不将教育开支削减一半
accommodate:vt.容纳;使适应;供应;调解;vi.适应;调解;
It really is this young versus the old to some degree. 从某种角度来看 这还真是青年人与老年人之间的利益之争
versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
If you don't change that revenue picture, if you don't solve what you're doing in health care, you're going to be deinvesting in the young. 如果你不改变收入状况 不解决医疗保障问题 你就只能减少对年轻一代的投资
The great University of California university system, the great things that have gone on, won't happen. 宏伟的加利福尼亚高校体系 正在进行的各项伟大事业 都将不复存在了
So far it's meant layoffs , increased class sizes. 现在,这意味着失业 以及课堂规模的增大
layoffs:n.裁员;解雇;
Within the education community there's this discussion of, "Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off, or the less good teachers who get laid off?" 在教育界,人们在讨论 “究竟应该让年轻教师下岗 还是让不合格教师下岗？”
And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes, where do you do that? How much affect does that have? 还有一个讨论:如果要增大课堂规模 你从何入手？这会产生多大的影响？
And unfortunately , as you get into that, people get confused and think, "Well maybe you think that's okay." 不幸的是,你问得越多,人们就越迷惑,他们会想: “这么说,你觉得这没问题。”
unfortunately:adv.不幸地; confused:adj.困惑的; v.使糊涂; (confuse的过去分词和过去式)
In fact, no, education spending should not be cut. 实际上,教育支出不应被削减
There's ways, if it's temporary , to minimize the impact , but it's a problem. 如果教育支出的削减只是暂时的 那么总有办法把影响减小到最低 但这是个大问题
temporary:adj.暂时的,临时的;n.临时工,临时雇员; minimize:v.使减少到最低限度;降低;贬低;使显得不重要; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
It's also really a problem for where we need to go. 另一个大问题是我们应从哪里入手
Technology has a role to play. 技术这方面的作用非常重要
Technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
Well we need money to experiment with that, to get those tools in there. 而我们需要资金来进行实验 才能引入那些技术
There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness , measuring them, giving them feedback , taking videos in the classroom. 我们建议根据教师的教学成效来对其支付工资 对其工作进行衡量,给他们反馈 为课堂录像
effectiveness:n.效力; feedback:n.反馈;反馈意见;回授;[电子]反馈;
That's something I think is very, very important. 我认为这么做非常非常重要
Well you have to allocate dollars for that system and for that incentive pay. 你必须为这个制度 以及激励性薪资 分配资金
allocate:vt.分配;拨出;使坐落于;vi.分配;指定; incentive:n.动机;刺激;adj.激励的;刺激的;
In a situation where you have growth, you put the new money into this -- or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it. 在你的资金有所增长的情况下 你把新增资金投入这一方面－－ 即使你的资金没有增长,你也应该从别处筹钱投入进去
shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换;
But with the type of cuts we're talking about, it will be far, far harder to get these incentives for excellence , or to move over to use technology in the new way. 然而这种教育支出的削减 会让我们更加难以 提供激励薪资 或进一步 以新的方式利用技术
incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施; excellence:n.优秀;美德;长处;
So what's going on? 那么情况到底怎么样？
Where's the brain trust that's in error here. 究竟是哪个幕后智囊团 出了错误
the brain trust:智囊团、思想库;
Well there really is no brain trust. 其实,这里根本就不存在智囊团
(Laughter) （众人笑）
It's sort of the voters, it's sort of us showing up. 这只是我们这些选民,站出来指出问题
Just look at this spending. 看看这些支出
California will spend over 100 billion, 加州将支出1000多亿美元
Microsoft, 38, 微软公司380亿
Google , about 19. 谷歌公司约为190亿
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎;
The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis , both inside Google and Microsoft and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions -- should they have spent on that? 谷歌与微软 内部与外部都有善于进行数据分析的 这些众多分析师与相关人员-- 他们应该把钱花在那方面吗？
numeric:n.数;数字;adj.数值的(等于numerical);数字的; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; analysts:n.分析师;分析家;[分化]分析员(analyst的复数);
No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? -- it really is quite phenomenal . 不,他们把钱浪费在这里了。这个怎么样？ 真是太复杂了
phenomenal:adj.现象的;显著的;异常的;能知觉的;惊人的,非凡的;
Everybody has an opinion. 每个人都各抒己见
There's great feedback. 得到的反馈巨大
And the numbers are used to make decisions. 而这些数据对我们做出决策很有帮助
If you go over the education spending and the health care spending -- particularly these long-term trends -- you don't have that type of involvement on a number that's more important in terms of equity , in terms of learning. 如果你浏览教育支出和医疗保障支出－－ 尤其是这些长期的项目－－ 你会发现,在平等与教育 这些更为重要的方面 资金投入不足
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; involvement:n.牵连;包含;混乱;财政困难; equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值;
So what do we need to do? 我们该怎么做呢？
We need better tools. 我们需要更好的工具
We can get some things out on the Internet. 我们可以求助于互联网
I'm going to use my website to put up some things that will give the basic picture. 我将利用我的网站 来展示基本的情况
We need lots more. 我们还需要做更多工作
There's a few good books, one about school spending and where the money comes from -- how that's changed over time, and the challenge. 这里有一些很有用的书 其中有一本与教育支出和教育资金的来源有关－－ 随时间的发展,它如何变化,以及所面临的挑战
We need better accounting. 我们需要更好地完成会计工作
We need to take the fact that current employees, the future liabilities they create, that should come out of the current budget. 我们必须认识到 我们应在当前的预算中 涵盖未来将用于目前在职员工身上的支出
We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting the way they have. 我们必须明白他们为何以现在这样方式 计算养老金
It should be more like private accounting. 这应该更像是私人会计服务
It's the gold standard . 这是黄金法则
gold standard:n.金本位制;黄金标准;典范;
And finally , we need to really reward politicians . 最后,我们需要好好奖励政治家
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; reward:n.[劳经]报酬;报答;酬谢;v.[劳经]奖励;奖赏; politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数)
Whenever they say there's these long term problems, we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news? 如果他们说存在长期性问题 我们不能说:“你是乌鸦嘴吗？
messenger:n.报信者,送信者;先驱;
We just shot you." 我们一枪毙了你。”
In fact, there are some like these: 事实上,下面这几位:
Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others, who have gone through and given proposals for this overall federal health spending state-level problem. 厄斯金·鲍尔斯,阿兰·辛普森以及其他几位 他们都为州一级的 联邦医疗总支出出谋划策
proposals:n.建议书(Proposal的复数);求婚;
But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off. 而实际上,他们的工作并没有取得成效
In fact, the week afterwards, some tax cuts were done that made the situation even worse than their assumptions . 事实上,就在上一周 他们削减了税收 让情况更加恶化 这超出了他们的预期
assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数)
So we need these pieces. 我们需要继续做这些工作
Now I think this is a solvable problem. 我认为这是可以得到解决的
solvable:adj.可以解决的;可以解的;可溶的;
It's a great country with lots of people. 这是一个人口众多的大国
But we have to draw those people in, because this is about education. 我们必须吸引人们的注意力 因为这事关教育大计
And just look at what happened with the tuitions with the University of California and project that out for another three, four, five years. 看看加利福尼亚大学 学费的变化 以及未来三年,四年,五年里将进行的项目
tuitions:n.学费;讲授;
It's unaffordable . 我们没有足够的资金
unaffordable:adj.买不起的;
And that's the kind of thing -- the investment in the young -- that makes us great, allows us to contribute . 这可是 对年轻一代的投资-- 这是一项伟大的事业,也是我们贡献力量的机会
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; contribute:v.贡献,出力;投稿;捐献;
It allows us to do the art, the biotechnology , the software and all those magic things. 这让我们能够成就艺术 生物技术,软件技术 以及其它妙不可言的事业
biotechnology:n.[生物]生物技术;[生物]生物工艺学;
And so the bottom line is we need to care about state budgets because they're critical for our kids and our future. 因此,最重要的是 我们必须关注州预算 因为这对我们的孩子,我们的未来至关重要
the bottom line:底线;本质内容;最底线; critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
Thank you. 感谢各位
(Applause) （众人鼓掌）