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AugiePicado_2017S-_制造業工作消失的真正原因_
When someone mentions Cuba, what do you think about? 当有人提到古巴的时候, 你会想到什么？
Classic , classic cars? 老爷车？
Classic:n.名著;优秀的典范;adj.最优秀的;第一流的;有代表性的;典型的;
Perhaps good cigars? 上等雪茄？
Maybe you think of a famous baseball player. 或者某位着名的棒球运动员。
What about when somebody mentions North Korea? 而提到北朝鲜呢？
You think about those missile tests, maybe their notorious leader or his good friend, Dennis Rodman . 你会想到导弹试射, 或者名声不怎么好的领导人 或者他的好朋友,丹尼斯·罗德曼。
missile:n.导弹;发射物;投掷物; notorious:adj.声名狼藉的,臭名昭著的; Rodman:n.持枪歹徒;标尺手;垂钓者;
(Laughter) （笑声）
One thing that likely doesn't come to mind is a vision of a country, an open economy , whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products. 而提到这些国家时, 你绝不会想到的是, 经济开放, 民众能买得到众多消费品, 而且也负担得起。
vision:n.视力;美景;幻象;想象力;v.想象;显现;梦见; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; affordable:adj.负担得起的; consumer:n.[经]消费者;[生,生态]消费者;
I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today. 我今天不想讨论这些国家 是怎么走到今天这种境地的。
I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens who have been affected, negatively affected, by a trade policy that restricts imports and protects local industries. 我仅仅想把它们作为一种典型, 来说明国家和民众, 是如何被限制进口, 保护本地工业的贸易政策所影响, 负面的影响。
negatively:adv.消极地;否定地; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; restricts:v.限制,限定(数量、范围等);束缚;阻碍;(restrict的第三人称单数)
Recently we've heard a number of countries talk about restricting imports and protecting their local, domestic industries. 最近我们听说有许多国家 在谈论限制进口, 保护国内的工业。
Recently:adv.最近;新近; restricting:n.整形,限制;扼流;v.限制(restrict的ing形式); domestic:n.佣人;家佣;家庭纠纷;家庭矛盾;adj.本国的;国内的;家用的;家庭的;
Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite , but what it really is is protectionism . 如果作为新闻标题, 可能听起来还不错, 但这实际上是一种贸易保护主义。
a sound bite:只言片语; protectionism:n.保护主义,贸易保护主义;贸易保护制度;
We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election. 我们在2016年总统大选期间 听到过很多这样的表述。
presidential:adj.总统的;首长的;统辖的;
We heard about it during the Brexit debates and most recently during the French elections. 在英国退出欧盟期间也听过不少, 还有最近的法国大选也是一样。
Brexit:英国退出欧盟; debates:n.[法]辩论;讨论(debate的复数);v.[法]辩论;讨论(debate的三单形式);
In fact, it's been a really important topic being talked about around the world, and many aspiring political leaders are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing. 实际上,这个议题非常重要, 在世界各国都是如此, 许多有抱负的政治领袖 都会把贸易保护主义视为一件好事, 并将其纳入自己的纲领中。
aspiring:adj.渴望从事…的; v.渴望(成就); (aspire的现在分词) platforms:n.平台; v.把…放在台上;
Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good, because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair. 我现在有点明白为何他们 把贸易保护主义视为好事, 因为有时候贸易看起来是不平等的。
Some have blamed trade for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US. 有人还会责怪贸易, 认为贸易是美国国内 很多问题的源头。
For years we've been hearing about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs. 有一件事情我们谈论了好几年, 就是关于美国高薪制造业 工作岗位的流失。
manufacturing:n.制造业;工业;v.制造;生产(manufacture的现在分词);
Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US because companies are moving their operations offshore to markets with lower-cost labor like China, Mexico and Vietnam. 很多人认为美国制造业的衰退 是因为企业将业务转移到海外那些 劳动力价格低廉的市场中去了, 比如中国,墨西哥和越南。
declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词) offshore:adj.离岸的;[海洋]近海的;吹向海面的;adv.向海面,向海;
They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair, like NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership , because these trade agreements allow companies to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US and other countries from where the jobs were taken. 他们还认为贸易协定 有时候是不公平的, 比如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA), 比如跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP), 因为这些贸易协定允许企业 从那些获得了工作岗位的国家 重新进口廉价生产的货物 到那些岗位被抢走的美国和其它国家。
Partnership:n.合伙;[经管]合伙企业;合作关系;合伙契约; reimport:n.再输入;再进口货;v.再输入(输出品等);
So it kind of feels like the exporters win and the importers lose. 感觉好像是出口国赚了, 而进口国亏了。
exporters:n.[贸易]出口商;出口公司(exporter的复数形式); importers:n.进口商(importer的复数形式);
Now, the reality is output in the manufacturing sector in the US is actually growing, but we are losing jobs. 而目前的现状是, 美国制造业的产量 实际上是在增长的, 但是我们的工作岗位在流失。
output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出; sector:n.部门;扇形,扇区;象限仪;函数尺;vt.把…分成扇形;
We're losing lots of them. 大量的流失。
5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost. 我们失去了570万个制造业岗位。
But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think. 但流失的原因并不是 大家所想象的那样。
Mike Johnson in Toledo , Ohio didn't lose his jobs at the factory to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico. 俄亥俄州托莱多市的麦克·约翰逊, 他的工作并不是被墨西哥蒙特雷的 米格尔·桑切斯抢走的。
Toledo:n.托莱多(美国港市);
No. 不是这样的。
Mike lost his job to a machine. 麦克的工作是被机器抢走了。
87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs have been eliminated because we've made improvements in our own productivity through automation . 制造业岗位的流失中, 有87%是因为我们通过自动化改造 提高了生产率。
eliminated:v.排除;清除;消除;(比赛中)淘汰;消灭;(eliminate的过去式和过去分词) improvements:n.改善;改进;改善的事物;(improvement的复数) productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力; automation:n.自动化;自动操作;
So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs was due to offshoring . 这就意味着,只有十分之一的 制造业岗位流失 跟生产转移到国外有关。
offshoring:n.(公司的)离岸外包业务;
Now, this is not just a US phenomenon . 这种现象不仅仅发生在美国。
phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物);
No. 不是的。
In fact, automation is spreading to every production line in every country around the world. 自动化正在蔓延到世界上每一个国家, 每一条生产线上。
production line:n.流水作业线;产品线;
But look, I get it: if you just lost your job and then you read in the newspaper that your old company just struck up a deal with China, it's easy to think you were just replaced in a one-for-one deal. 但我承认,表面上看, 如果你刚刚失业, 紧接着你在报纸上看到 你的老东家跟中国刚刚签了一笔订单, 你就很容易联想到 自己在一对一交易中 被替代掉了。
one-for-one:n.一对一;
When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture is that trade happens between only two countries. 每当我听到这样的故事,我就会想, 人们往往认为贸易 只发生在两个国家之间。
Manufacturers in one country produce products and they export them to consumers in other countries, and it feels like the manufacturing countries win and the importing countries lose. 一个国家的生产商 生产产品,然后出口到 其他国家的消费者手中, 看起来感觉生产国赚了, 而进口国亏了。
Manufacturers:n.生产者;制造者;生产商;(manufacturer的复数) consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数)
Well, reality's a little bit different. 实际情况其实有所不同。
I'm a supply chain professional , and I live and work in Mexico. 我是一名供应链专家, 我在墨西哥生活和工作。
supply chain:n.供应链; professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员;
And I work in the middle of a highly connected network of manufacturers all collaborating from around the world to produce many of the products we use today. 我的工作属于 一个紧密联系的制造商网络, 它们来自世界各地,互相协作, 共同生产许多我们日常所需的产品。
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; collaborating:v.合作;协作;通敌;勾结敌人;(collaborate的现在分词)
What I see from my front-row seat in Mexico City actually looks more like this. 我在墨西哥城 获得的第一手见闻 更符合下面这种情况。
And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like. 这是对于真实的贸易更为精确的描述。
accurate:adj.精确的; depiction:n.描写,叙述;
I've had the pleasure of being able to see how many different products are manufactured , from golf clubs to laptop computers to internet servers, automobiles and even airplanes . 我有幸能看到 各种各样的产品是如何生产出来的, 从高尔夫球杆到笔记本电脑, 网络服务器,汽车, 甚至飞机。
manufactured:adj.制造的,已制成的;v.制造,加工(manufacture的过去式); laptop:n.便携式电脑;笔记本电脑; automobiles:n.[车辆]汽车,发动器(automobile复数);关于汽车; airplanes:n.(美)[航]飞机(airplane的复数);
And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line. 相信我,没有哪一种产品 来自刚刚那条两国之间的直线。
Let me give you an example. 我来举个例子。
A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant of a multinational aerospace company in Querétaro, Mexico, and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly . 几个月前,我参观了位于 墨西哥克雷塔罗州的 一家跨国航空公司的 制造厂。 负责物流的副总裁 给我们看了一个组装完毕的机尾。
multinational:adj.跨国公司的;多国的;n.跨国公司; aerospace:n.航空宇宙;[航]航空航天空间; logistics:n.[军]后勤;后勤学;物流; assembly:n.装配;集会,集合;
It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels that are manufactured in France, and they're assembled in Mexico using components imported from the US. 这个组装完毕的机尾,所用的金属板 是在法国生产, 在墨西哥组装, 使用的零件进口自美国。
assemblies:n.装配;程序集;集会;衣片(assembly的复数形式); assembled:v.聚集;集合;收集;装配;组装;(assemble的过去分词和过去式) panels:n.面板(panel的复数); v.嵌镶(panel的第三人称单数形式); components:n.部件;组件;成份(component复数);
When those tail assemblies are done, they're exported via truck to Canada to their primary assembly plant where they come together with thousands of other parts, like the wings and the seats and the little shades over the little windows, all coming in to become a part of a new airplane. 当这些机尾组装完毕后, 会通过卡车运输出口到加拿大, 那里有他们的主装配工厂, 成千上万的其他零件 在那里被组装到一起, 像机翼,座位, 窗户上的遮光板, 都汇集于此,成为 一架新飞机的一部分。
exported:v.[贸易]出口;输出(export的过去分词);adj.出口的; via:prep.通过;经由;n.道路;[医]管道; shades:n.阴凉处; v.给…遮挡(光线); (shade的第三人称单数和复数)
Think about it. 想象一下,
These new airplanes, before they even take their first flight, they have more stamps in their passports than Angelina Jolie. 这些新飞机, 在它们首飞之前, 护照上盖的章 已经比安吉丽娜·朱莉的还要多。
Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world to manufacture many of the products we use every day, from skin cream to airplanes. 这样的情况在世界各地越来越多, 生产我们日常所需的 许多产品, 从润肤霜到飞机。
approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理; processing:v.加工;处理;审核;数据处理;v.列队行进;缓缓前进;(process的现在分词)
When you go home tonight, take a look in your house. 今晚你们回家后,四处看看。
You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one: "Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts." 你可能会惊奇地找到 一个这样的标签: “美国生产,零件来自 美国和其他国家。”
label:n.标签;标记;谓;唱片公司;v.贴标签于;用标签标明;
Economist Michael Porter described what's going on here best. 经济学家麦克·波特 对此有着最为精辟的描述。
described:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的过去分词和过去式)
Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently and trading for the rest. 在几十年前,他就指出, 对一个国家而言最有利的做法, 就是专注于生产 自己生产率最高的产品, 然后通过贸易来获得其他产品。
beneficial:adj.有益的,有利的;可享利益的; efficiently:adv.有效地;效率高地(efficient的副词形式);
So what he's talking about here is shared production, and efficiency is the name of the game. 他所说的就是协同生产, 而效率是其中最关键的一点。
efficiency:n.效率;效能;功效;
You've probably seen an example of this at home or at work. 大家很可能见过这样的例子, 无论在家还是在工作中。
Let's take a look at an example. 让我们来看一个例子。
take a look at:看一看;检查;
Think about how your house was built or your kitchen renovated . 想想你们家房子是怎么盖起来的 或者厨房是怎么翻新的。
renovated:v.修复;翻新;重新粉刷;(renovate的过去式和过去分词)
Typically , there's a general contractor who is responsible for coordinating the efforts of all the different contractors : an architect to draw the plans, an earth-moving company to dig the foundation , a plumber , a carpenter and so on. 一般来说,会有一个总承包商 他会负责协调 不同承包商的工作: 设计师绘制图纸, 基建公司挖好地基, 还有水管工、木匠等等。
Typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地; responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的; coordinating:v.使协调;使相配合;搭配,协调;(coordinate的现在分词) contractors:n.[经]承包商;[法]立约人;合约商(contractor的复数); architect:n.建筑师;设计师;创造者; earth-moving:adj.运土的; foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立; plumber:n.水管工;堵漏人员; carpenter:n.木匠,木工;vi.当木匠,制作;
So why doesn't the general contractor pick just one company to do all the work, like, say, the architect? 那为什么这个总承包商 不会只选择一家公司 来完成所有的工作呢, 比如说,只找设计师？
Because this is silly. 因为这么做很傻。
The general contractor selects experts because it takes years to learn and master how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen, some of them requiring special training. 总承包商会选择专业人士, 因为学习和专精 盖房子和翻新厨房的 某一个领域都需要花费数年的时间, 有些甚至需要专业的训练。
Think about it: 试想一下,
Would you want your architect to install your toilet? 你会愿意让设计师来帮你安装马桶吗？
install:v.安装;设置;安置;建立(程序);
Of course not. 当然不会。
So let's apply this process to the corporate world. 将这一过程引申到 企业的领域也是一样。
apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求; corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的;
Companies today focus on manufacturing what they produce best and most efficiently, and they trade for everything else. 当今企业都专注于生产 他们质量最高、效率最高的产品, 然后通过贸易获得其他产品。
So this means they rely on a global , interconnected , interdependent network of manufacturers to produce these products. 这就意味着企业都高度依赖 一个全球化的、紧密联系的、 相互依赖的制造商网络 来生产产品。
rely:vi.依靠;信赖; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; interconnected:adj.连通的;有联系的;v.互相连接(interconnect的过去式); interdependent:adj.相互依赖的;互助的;
In fact, that network is so interconnected it's almost impossible to dismantle and produce products in just one country. 这个网络的联系是如此紧密, 几乎不太可能 将其拆开,在一个国家 生产所有的产品。
dismantle:v.拆开,拆卸;(逐渐)废除,取消;
Let's take a look at the interconnected web we saw a few moments ago, and let's focus on just one strand between the US and Mexico. 我们来回顾一下刚刚看到的 紧密联系的网络, 我们只看其中一条线, 美国和墨西哥之间的那一条。
strand:n.(线、绳、金属线、毛发等的)股; v.使滞留;
The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents 40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico. 威尔逊学院的数据显示, 美国和墨西哥的 贸易额为5000亿美元, 其中40%是协同生产。
Institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院; represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
That's about 200 billion dollars, or the same as the GDP for Portugal. 差不多是2000亿美元, 相当于葡萄牙全国的GDP。
So let's just imagine that the US decides to impose a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico. 假设一下, 如果美国决定 对所有进口自墨西哥的产品 征20%的国境税。
impose:v.推行;迫使;强制实行;把…强加于;
OK, fine. 没问题。
But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen? 但是你们觉得墨西哥会欣然接受吗？
No. No way. 不可能的。
So in retaliation , they impose a similar tax on all goods being imported from the US, and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues , and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties 作为回应,他们也会征收相似的税率, 针对所有进口自美国的产品, 就这样你来我往, 想象一下这20%的税
retaliation:n.报复;反击;回敬; tit-for-tat:针锋相对; ensues:vi.跟着发生,接着发生;继起;vt.追求;
are added to every good, product, product component crossing back and forth across the border, and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties, or 80 billion dollars. 被加到所有的货物,产品及其部件, 只要过境就会被征收, 这样一来税率的增加就会大于40%, 或者说800亿美元。
back and forth:前后移动的,来回的,反复的;
Now, don't kid yourself, these costs are going to be passed along to you and to me. 不要天真了, 这些费用的增加一定会被摊到 你我身上。
Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products, or the prices of the products, that we buy every day. 我们来看一下这会对商品 产生什么样的影响, 或者说对我们日常用品的价格 会产生什么影响。
impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along, we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices. 如果税率增加30%, 我们会看到明显的价格上涨。
And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV 一台60寸的夏普高清电视的价格
Sharp:锋利的,尖的
And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer 一罐454克的CVS润肤霜价格
moisturizer:n.润肤膏;
Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain between the US and Mexico, so multiply this out across all of the strands . 提醒一下,这还仅仅只是 美国和墨西哥之间, 只是产品网络中的一条线, 如果把所有的线都叠加起来。
multiply:vt.乘; vi.乘; v.多样地; adj.多层的; strands:n.线; v.搁浅;
The impact could be considerable . 产生的影响就会相当大了。
considerable:adj.相当大的;重要的,值得考虑的;
Now, just think about this: even if we were able to dismantle this network and produce products in just one country, which by the way is easier said than done , we would still only be saving or protecting one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs. 试想一下, 即使我们能够将整个网络分解, 在一个国家生产所有的产品, 当然,这操作起来很难, 我们也仅仅能够保住 10个制造业岗位中的1个。
by the way:顺便说一下; easier said than done:说起来容易做起来难;
That's right, because remember, most of those jobs, 87 percent, were lost due to improvements in our own productivity. 没错,因为请记住, 大部分的工作岗位,高达87%, 是因为我们生产率的提高而流失。
And unfortunately , those jobs, they're gone for good. 而且遗憾的是, 这些工作岗位再也找不回来了。
unfortunately:adv.不幸地;
So the real question is, does it make sense for us to drive up prices to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day for the purpose of saving a job that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway? 现在问题来了, 我们让价格上涨, 直到大部分人都买不起基本生活用品, 而目的仅仅为了保住一个工作岗位, 而这个工作岗位在几年后 又肯定会失去, 那么这件事到底有没有意义？
make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理; for the purpose of:为了…目的;
The reality is that shared production allows us to manufacture higher quality products at lower costs. 现实就是,协同生产 可以让我们以很低的成本 生产高质量的产品。
It's that simple. 就这么简单。
It allows us to get more out of the limited resources and expertise we have and at the same time benefit from lower prices. 这样可以让我们 充分利用有限的资源和专业技能 同时通过较低的价格获利。
limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); expertise:n.专门知识;专门技术;专家的意见; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时;
It's really important to remember that for shared production to be effective , it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials, components and finished products. 对于协同生产而言, 很重要的一点就是, 它依赖于对原料、零件和制成品 高效的跨境运输。
effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象; relies:信任; cross-border:adj.跨越边界的;国境线交叉的;
So remember this: the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea that protectionism is a good deal, it's just not. 请大家记住, 下次你们要是再遇到有人宣扬 贸易保护主义是一件好事, 千万别再被忽悠了。
Thank you. 谢谢大家。
(Applause) （掌声）