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AnnetteHeuser_2013G-_成败经济的_3_大评级机构_
Almost two years ago, 這樣一來,國家就無法提供別的服務,
I was driving in my car in Germany, and I turned on the radio. 我在德國開車時, 打開收音機,
Europe at the time was in the middle of the Euro crisis , and all the headlines were about European countries getting downgraded by rating agencies in the United States. 歐洲當時 處於歐債, 所有的頭版都是歐洲國家又被 美國評級機構降級的消息。
Euro:n.欧元(欧盟的统一货币单位); crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; downgraded:v.信用等级下降(downgrade的过去式);adj.降级的;受鄙视的; agencies:n.代理;代理处(agency的复数); United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
I listened and thought to myself, "What are these rating agencies, and why is everybody so upset about their work?" 那時我不禁自問: 「這些評級機構到底是什麼？ 為何大家對它們的評價這麼在意？」
upset:adj.沮丧; v.打乱; n.苦恼; (意外的)混乱;
Well, if you were sitting next to me in the car that day and would have told me that I would devote the next years to trying to reform them, obviously I would have called you crazy. 若那天你是 坐在我旁邊, 然後告訴我, 我未來幾年會試著去改變這些機構, 我會毫不猶豫地認定你瘋了。
devote:v.贡献;把…专用于;听任; reform:v.改革;改进;改良;(使)悔改;n.改革;改良;改善;
But guess what's really crazy: the way these rating agencies are run. 但還有更瘋的: 這些評級機構運作的方式。
And I would like to explain to you not only why it's time to change this, but also how we can do it. 我想跟您解釋, 為何現在是做出改變的時刻, 同時也會告訴你如何做出改變。
So let me tell you a little bit about what rating agencies really do. 讓我來告訴你, 評級機構到底是做什麼的。
As you would read a car magazine before purchasing a new car or taking a look at a product review before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get, investors are reading ratings before they decide in which kind of product they are investing their money. 就像您會先閱讀汽車雜誌, 再決定要買哪款新車。 或是看完產品的評價, 再決定要買哪種平板電腦或手機。 投資者也會先看評價, 再決定把他們的金錢 投資給某種金融產品。
purchasing:n.购买;采购;v.买;购买;采购;(purchase的现在分词) tablet:n.碑;药片;写字板;小块; ratings:n.评级;等级(rating的复数形式); investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词)
A rating can range from a so-called AAA, which means it's a top-performing product, and it can go down to the level of the so-called BBB-, which means it's a fairly risky investment . 評價制度從所謂的「AAA」, 意味著表現超級亮眼的產品, 降到十分低的評價, 稱做「BBB-」, 意味著還蠻有風險的投資。
so-called:adj.所谓的;号称的; top-performing:adj.绝佳表演的; fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直; investment:n.投资;投入;封锁;
Rating agencies are rating companies. 評級機構不只評級
They are rating banks. 公司、銀行,
They are rating even financial products like the infamous mortgage-backed securities. 還對金融產品評級, 比如臭名昭著的不動產抵押債券。
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; infamous:adj.声名狼藉的;无耻的;邪恶的;不名誉的;
But they can also rate countries, and these ratings are called sovereign ratings, and I would like to focus in particular on these sovereign ratings. 連國家也能納入評價, 這些評價有稱為「主權評價」。 今天我就來重點談談 這些主權評價。
sovereign:adj.至高无上的; n.君主; in particular:尤其,特别;
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,you're thinking, so why should I really care about this, right? 我看的出,在場一定有人納悶著, 為何我會對這些評價這麼在意？
Be honest. 說真心話。
Well, ratings affect you. 這些評價會影響你,
They affect all of us. 也會影響我們所有人。
If a rating agency rates a country, it basically assesses and evaluates a country's debt and the ability and willingness of a country to repay its debt. 當評級機構評價一個國家時, 它基本上就是評估 這個國家的債務狀況, 以及這個國家 還債的能力和意願。
agency:n.代理,中介;代理处,经销处; basically:adv.主要地,基本上; assesses:vt.评定;估价;对…征税; evaluates:vt.评价;估价;求…的值;vi.评价;估价; debt:n.债务;借款;罪过; willingness:n.乐意;心甘情愿;自动自发; repay:v.偿还;报答;报复;
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency, the country has to pay more in order to borrow money on the international markets. 所以,若評級機構降低一國的評級, 那國家就必須在國際市場上 付出更多, 才能夠借錢。
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer , because you and your fellow countrymen have to pony up more in order to borrow. 所以作為公民及納稅人,你會受影響。 因為你和其它公民 必須接受更高的貨款利息才能借款。
taxpayer:n.纳税人;所收租金只够支付地产税的建筑物; countrymen:n.同胞;国民(countryman的复数形式);乡下人; pony:n.矮种马;小型马;adj.小型的;每日摘要的;v.付清;
But what if a country can't afford to pay more because it's maybe too expensive? 若一個國家因為成本過於高昂 而負擔不起怎麼辦?
what if:如果…怎么办? afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
Well, then the country has less available for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare . 這樣一來,國家就無法提供別的服務, 如道路、學校、醫療。
healthcare:n.医疗保健;健康护理,健康服务;卫生保健;
And this is the reason why you should care, because sovereign ratings affect everyone. 這就是為什麼你該了解此議題, 因為主權評價能夠影響每個人。
And that is the reason why I believe they should be defined as public goods. 這就是為什麼我相信, 它們該定義為公共財產。
defined:adj.有定义的,确定的; v.使明确;
They should be transparent , accessible , and available to everyone at no cost. 它們應該透眀,易取, 而且免費提供給大眾。
transparent:adj.透明的;显然的;坦率的;易懂的; accessible:adj.易接近的;可进入的;可理解的;
But here's the situation: the rating agency market is dominated by three players and three players only -- 但情況來了: 評級機構的市場是由 三大主要的角色壟斷的 --
dominated:v.支配;控制;左右;影响;(dominate的过去式和过去分词)
Standard Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch -- and we know whenever there is a market concentration , there is really no competition . 普爾、穆迪、惠譽。 眾所皆知,當市場集中時, 競爭就不復存在。
Standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; Fitch:n.艾鼬(欧洲产);艾鼬毛皮(等于fitchet或fitchew); concentration:n.浓度;含量;集中;专心; competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛;
There is no incentive to improve the quality of your product. 改善品質的激勵 就會消失殆盡。
incentive:n.动机;刺激;adj.激励的;刺激的; improve:v.改进;改善;
And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed , putting the global economy on the brink , and yet they have to change the way they operate. 面對現實吧,評級機構 好幾次把全球經濟推向邊緣。 所以其運作方式有待改善。
credit rating:信用评级; contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词) global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; brink:n.(峭壁的)边缘;
The second point, would you really buy a car just based on the advice of the dealer ? 第二點就是, 你購買汽車時,會單憑 經銷商給的建議做決定嗎？
dealer:n.交易商;贸易商;贩毒者;毒品贩子;
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible . 肯定不會嘛! 因為這樣不負責任嘛!
irresponsible:adj.不负责任的;不可靠的;
But that's actually what's going on in the rating agency sector every single day. 但實際上,這種運作模式 日復一日地出現在評級領域裡。
sector:n.部门;扇形,扇区;象限仪;函数尺;vt.把…分成扇形;
The customers of these rating agencies, like countries or companies, they are paying for their own ratings, and obviously this is creating a conflict of interest. 這三大評級機構的顧客們, 像是國家或者公司, 他們付費獲得自己的評級, 這樣一來無庸置疑地 產生了利益衝突。
conflict:n.冲突;矛盾;争执;抵触;v.抵触;
The third point is, the rating agencies are not really telling us how they are coming up with their ratings, but in this day and age, you can't even sell a candy bar without listing everything that's inside. 第三點就是, 這些評級機構從未讓我們知道 他們的評級從何而來。 但是在當下, 連推銷一個糖果 都得一一列出裡面的成分。
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy, we really do not know what all the different ingredients are. 然而,評級是經濟構成的重要元素, 我們卻無從得知 裡面的任何一樣細節。
crucial:adj.重要的;决定性的;定局的;决断的; element:n.元素;要素;原理;成分;自然环境; ingredients:n.成分;(尤指烹饪)原料;(成功的)要素;(ingredient的复数)
We are allowing the rating agencies to be intransparent about their work, and we need to change this. 我們就這樣讓這些評級機構 以不透明的運作方式做出評級, 所以我們必須改變現況。
I think there is no doubt that the sector needs a complete overhaul , not just a trimming at the margins . 我想這是一塊 亟需全面檢查的區域。 而不僅僅做些不痛不癢的改變,
overhaul:vt.分解检查,大修;追上并超过;n.彻底检修,详细检查; trimming:n.(菜肴的)配料; v.修剪; (trim的现在分词) margins:n.边缘; v.给…镶边; (margin的复数)
I think it's time for a bold move. 我認為該是大膽踏出一大步的時候了,
bold:adj.大胆的,英勇的;黑体的;厚颜无耻的;险峻的;
I think it's time to upgrade the system. 是系統升級的時候了。
upgrade:v.使升级;提升;改良品种;n.升级;上升;上坡;adv.往上;adj.向上的;
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation have invested a lot of time and effort thinking about an alternative for the sector. 這就是為什麼我們「貝塔斯曼基金會」, 投入了大量的時間和精力, 為人們提供另一項選擇。
Foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立; invested:v.投资;投入;(invest的过去分词和过去式) alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择;
And we have developed the first model for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk, and we call it by its acronym , INCRA. 我們已開發出第一個模式, 是個非營利的主權評價機構, 簡稱 INCRA。
nonprofit:adj.非赢利的;不以赢利为目的的; acronym:n.首字母缩略词;
INCRA would make a difference to the current system by adding another nonprofit player to the mix. INCRA 會改善 現有的系統。 通過將非營利的評級機構加入戰局,
make a difference:有影响,有关系;
It would be based on a nonprofit model that would be based on a sustainable endowment . 它將建立在非營利的模式上, 且會有大量的資金作為後盾。
sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的; endowment:n.捐赠;捐助;捐款;天资;
The endowment would create income that would allow us to run the operation, to run the rating agency, and it would also allow us to make our ratings publicly available. 這些資金會創造收入, 讓營運更順暢, 評級機構也會因此受惠。 這也讓我們有機會 公開評級的方式。
But this is not enough to make a difference, right? 但這麼做還不足以改變現況,對吧?
INCRA would also be based on a very, very clear governance structure that would avoid any conflict of interest, and it would include many stakeholders from society. INCRA 也是建立在 十分透明的治理結構基礎上, 這樣就能避開利益相突, 同時吸納許多民間的財產保管人。
governance:n.管理;统治;支配; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造; stakeholders:n.利益相关者;赌款保存人(stakeholder的复数);
INCRA would not only be a European or an American rating agency, it would be a truly international one, in which, in particular, the emerging economies would have an equal interest, voice and representation . INCRA 不僅僅是歐洲的、 或者美國的評級機構, 它會是全球化的評級機構。 這樣子,新興經濟才能獲取 平等的利益、話語權和代表權。
emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) representation:n.表现;代表;描述;陈述
The second big difference that INCRA would make is that would it base its sovereign risk assessment on a broader set of indicators . INCRA 可做出的第二點轉變就是: 它的主權評價會採取 更加廣泛的指標做評估。
assessment:n.评定;估价; indicators:n.指示信号;标志;指针;方向灯;(indicator的复数)
Think about it that way. 這樣想好了,
If we conduct a sovereign rating, we basically take a look at the economic soil of a country, its macroeconomic fundamentals . 若由我們進行主權評價, 我們基本上會觀察 一個國家的經濟基本面, 它的宏觀經濟基本指標。
conduct:v.实施;执行;表现;引导;n.举止;管理方法;经营方式;实施办法; take a look at:看一看;检查; macroeconomic:adj.宏观经济的,总体经济的;n.整体经济; fundamentals:n.基本面;基本原理(fundamental的复数);
But we also have to ask the question, who is cultivating the economic soil of a country, right? 但我們得先自問: 是誰在蓄養國家的經濟基礎？ 對吧？
cultivating:v.培养(cultivate的现在分词);
Well, a country has many gardeners , and one of them is the government, so we have to ask the question, how is a country governed? 一個國家有許多給經濟施肥的人, 其中之一就是政府。 下一個問題就是: 一個國家是如何管理的?
gardeners:n.花匠;园丁;园艺爱好者;(gardener的复数)
How is it managed? 又是如何運作的？
And this is the reason why we have developed what we call forward-looking indicators. 這就是為什麼我們要開發 前膽性的指標。
forward-looking:adj.有远见的;向前看的;
These are indicators that give you a much better read about the socioeconomic development of a country. 這些指標能夠 更好地解讀 一個國家的社會經濟發展。
socioeconomic:adj.社会经济学的;
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education. 我希望你會認同接下來的看法: 若你的政府願意投資再生能源和教育,
renewable:adj.可再生的;可更新的;可继续的;n.再生性能源;
It's important for you to know if the government of your country is able to manage a crisis, if the government is finally able to implement the reforms that it's promised. 你就需要去確認, 你國家的政府 是否有能力解決危機。 你的政府是否最終 實施了其承諾的改善。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; implement:v.实施;执行;贯彻;使生效;n.工具; reforms:n.改革(reform的复数);v.改革(reform的单数第三人称);
For example, if INCRA would rate 比方說,如果 INCRA
South Africa right now, of course we would take a very, very close look at the youth unemployment of the country, the highest in the world. 目前在評價南非, 我們當然會很密切地審視 這國家年輕人的失業率, 南非的數據是全球最高的。
unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数;
If over 70 percent of a country's population under the age of 35 is unemployed , of course this has a huge impact on the economy today and even more so in the future. 若這個國家 35 歲以下的人口中, 超過 70% 都失業了, 這對經濟的影響當然很大。 現況都這麼糟了,以後的就更別提了。
under the age of:在年龄之下;16岁以下; unemployed:adj.失业的;下岗的;n.(集合词)失业者; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
Well, our friends at Moody's, 再來看看
Standard Poor's, and Fitch will tell us we would take this into account as well. 普爾、穆迪、惠譽會說: 這些都有納入評價。
But guess what? We do not know exactly how they will take this into account. 但到底有沒有啊? 我們也不知道 究竟他們如何將其納入評價的。
And this leads me to the third big difference that INCRA would make. 這帶我們來到第 3 個 INCRA 可以做的轉變。
INCRA would not only release its ratings but it would also release its indicators and methodology . 那就是 INCRA 不只會提供其評價, 也會顯示其指標 和方法。
release:v.释放;发射;让与;允许发表;n.释放;发布;让与; methodology:n.方法学,方法论;
So in contrast to the current system, 所以與當今的系統相比,
contrast:n.对比;对照;反差;明显的差异;v.对比;对照;形成对比;
INCRA would be fully transparent. INCRA 的評價方式較為透眀。
So in a nutshell , 長話短說,
in a nutshell:极简单地;简言之;简而言之;总而言之;
INCRA would offer an alternative to the current system of the big three rating agencies by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix that would increase the competition, it would increase the transparency of the sector, and it would also increase the quality. INCRA 會提供另一項選擇, 除了當今的 3 大評級機構以外, 再加入一個全新的、非營利的評價機構。 這樣可以增加競爭, 為此區塊增加透明度, 以及提升品質。
transparency:n.透明,透明度;幻灯片;有图案的玻璃;
I can tell that sovereign ratings may still look to you like this very small piece of this very complex global financial world, but I tell you it's a very important one, and a very important one to fix, because sovereign ratings affect all of us, and they should be addressed and should be defined as public goods. 我明白主權評級對你來說, 可能只是複雜的全球金融系統裡 渺小的一部分。 但我能跟你打包票說, 這很重要,且極需解決。 因為主權評級會影響每一個人, 這問題應當解決, 並且應當定義成公共財產。
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; addressed:v.写(收信人)姓名地址:致函:演说:演讲:向…说话; (address的过去分词和过去式)
And this is why we are testing our model right now, and why we are trying to find out if it can bring together a group of able and willing actors to bring INCRA to life. 因此我們正在測試這一模式, 我們在嘗試組建一支 有意願和能力的隊伍, 得以讓 INCRA 發揮其作用。
I truly believe building up INCRA is in everyone's interest, and that we have the unique opportunity right now to turn INCRA into a cornerstone of a new, more inclusive financial system. 我堅信,建立 INCRA 符合在座每一位的利益, 現在我們有這難得的機會 打造 INCRA 為踏基石, 讓金融系統換然一新,更有包容性。
unique:adj.独特的,稀罕的;[数]唯一的;n.独一无二的人或物; cornerstone:n.基础;柱石;地基; inclusive:adj.包括的,包含的;
Because for way too long, we have left the big financial players on their own. 因為我們已經讓 這些金融巨頭獨霸太久了,
It's time to give them some company. 該是介入的時候了。
Thank you. 謝謝。
(Applause) (掌聲)