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AndrewMcAfee_2013-_未来的工作会是什么样_
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that, among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the most gratuitous . 作家乔治·艾略特提醒我们, 在所有形式的错误中, 预言是最没有理由的。
prophesy:vt.预言;预告;vi.预言;预报;传教; gratuitous:adj.无理由的,无端的;免费的;
The person that we would all acknowledge as her 20th-century counterpart , Yogi Berra, agreed. 我们都熟知的 20世纪的尤吉·贝拉,也同意这点。
counterpart:n.副本;配对物;极相似的人或物; Yogi:n.瑜珈修行者;瑜珈信徒;沉思或神秘的人;
He said, "It's tough to make predictions , especially about the future." 他说,“很难做出预测, 尤其是关于未来 。
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
I'm going to ignore their cautions and make one very specific forecast . 不过我要无视这些提醒 并作出一个非常具体的预测。
ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; forecast:n.预测;预报;v.预测;预报;
In the world that we are creating very quickly, we're going to see more and more things that look like science fiction , and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs. 当今世界我们正在飞速创造, 我们会看到越来越多的新事物 看起来像是科幻小说, 以及越来越少看起来像工作的事物。
science fiction:科幻小说;
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves, which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers. 我们的车很快要开始自动驾驶, 这意味着我们用不着那么多的卡车司机了。
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson and use that to automate a lot of the work that's currently done by customer service reps and troubleshooters and diagnosers, and we're already taking R2D2, painting him orange, and putting him to work carrying shelves around warehouses , which means we need a lot fewer people to be walking up and down those aisles . 我们要把Siri和沃森（人工智能程序）结合 用它来自动完成大量的工作 而这些工作目前通过客服人员 维修人员和分析师来完成, 我们就已经造出了R2D2, 把它涂成橙色,让它去工作 将货架运往各地仓库, 这意味着我们需越来越少的人 在那些通道上走来走去。
hook:n.钩;挂钩;鱼钩;钓钩;v.挂住;箍住;钓(鱼);打曲线球; Siri:n.iPhone4S上的语音控制功能; automate:v.使自动化; currently:adv.当前;一般地; reps:n.棱纹平布(条花织品的一种);代表(rep的复数); troubleshooters:n.故障检修工;解决纠纷者;解决麻烦问题的能手; warehouses:n.仓库,货栈;货仓;(warehouse的名词复数) aisles:n.[建]通道;[建]走廊(aisle的复数);
Now, for about 200 years, people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you -- the age of technological unemployment is at hand — starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain just about two centuries ago, and they have been wrong. 迄今为止的 200多年, 人们一直在热议我现在所说的内容 关于“技术性失业”的时代已经来临 — — 始于卢德派（反科技人士）在英国捣毁织布机 这发生在大约两个世纪前, 但他们的预言错了。
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数; smashing:adj.了不起的,极好的;粉碎性的,猛烈的;v.粉碎(smash的现在分词); looms:n.织布机(loom的复数);v.隐现(loom的三单形式);用织机织;
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along on something pretty close to full employment. 我们一路至今的经济发展 几乎是接近充分就业。
economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
Which brings up a critical question: 这就引申出一个关键的问题:
critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
Why is this time different, if it really is? 如果技术性失业是真的,那预言为何没有成真？
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years, our machines have started demonstrating skills they have never, ever had before: understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing, answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills. 导致现实与预言不符的原因是,我们的机器 在最近几年才开始展示出前所未有的技能 这些技能包括: 理解、说话、 听、 看、 应答、 写作,并且他们还在掌握新的技能。
demonstrating:n.演示;v.证明;示威;显示;(demonstrate的现在分词) acquiring:n.捕获,探测;习得;瞄准;v.获得;(acquire的现在分词);
For example, mobile humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive , but the research arm of the Defense Department just launched a competition to have them do things like this, and if the track record is any guide, this competition is going to be successful. 例如,移动的仿人机器人 仍然很原始 但国防部的研究机构 刚刚启动了一项竞赛 要这些机器人做上面的工作, 如果跟踪记录是可以借鉴的, 这次竞赛将会非常成功。
mobile:n.手机;汽车;移动电话;adj.活跃的;可动的; humanoid:adj.像人的;n.类人动物; incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; primitive:adj.原始的,远古的;简单的,粗糙的;n.原始人; launched:v.发射;发起;开展;开始;(launch的过去式和过去分词) competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛; track record:n.径赛成绩记录;过去的成绩或成就;
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all when we're going to have androids doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now. 所以当我环顾四周,我觉得那天是不远了 当我们通过机器人 做了很多我们现在在做的工作。
androids:n.机器人;
And we're creating a world where there is going to be more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs. 我们正在创造一个的技术越来越丰富 就业机会却越来越少的新世界
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling "the new machine age." 我和埃里克 · 布赖恩试图将其命名为 新机器时代 。
The thing to keep in mind is that this is absolutely great news. 要牢记的是, 这是非常好的消息。
keep in mind:记住; absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
This is the best economic news on the planet these days. 这是地球上最好的经济新闻。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
Not that there's a lot of competition, right? 你会认为机器人带来了竞争,不是吗？
This is the best economic news we have these days for two main reasons. 为何是最好的经济新闻 有两个主要原因。
The first is, technological progress is what allows us to continue this amazing recent run that we're on where output goes up over time, while at the same time , prices go down, and volume and quality just continue to explode . 第一是,技术进步使得我们 继续维持令人惊叹的产出 随着时间推移继续前进, 与此同时,物价却开始下降, 数量和质量都持续上升。
output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; volume:n.体积;容积;音量;响度;一册;合订本 explode:v.爆炸;爆裂;勃然(大怒);突然发生(危险);
Now, some people look at this and talk about shallow materialism , but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it. 现在,有些人看到这个会联想到 浅层的唯物主义, 但这绝对是错误的理解方式。
materialism:n.唯物主义;唯物论;物质主义;
This is abundance , which is exactly what we want our economic system to provide. 这种物质丰富 正是我们对现有经济体系的期待。
abundance:n.丰度;丰富;大量;富足;
The second reason that the new machine age is such great news is that, once the androids start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore, and we get freed up from drudgery and toil . 第二个主要原因, 一旦机器人 开始承担工作,我们就不需要再插手, 我们可以从辛苦的劳动中解放出来。
drudgery:n.苦工,苦差事; toil:n.辛苦;苦工;网;圈套;v.辛苦工作;艰难地行进;
Now, when I talk about this with my friends in Cambridge and Silicon Valley , they say, " Fantastic . No more drudgery, no more toil. 现在,当我与剑桥和硅谷的朋友提起此事 他们认为, 太棒了。从此再没有辛苦,再没有劳累
Cambridge:n.剑桥(英国城市);坎布里奇(美国马萨诸塞州城市); Silicon Valley:n.硅谷(美国加利福尼亚州一处计算机和电子公司聚集地,有时用以指任何计算机公司聚集地); Fantastic:奇异的,空想的
This gives us the chance to imagine an entirely different kind of society, a society where the creators and the discoverers and the performers and the innovators 这给了我们去想象 一种全然不同的社会的机会 那里,创造者和发现者 表演者和创新者
discoverers:n.发现者; innovators:n.创新者;发明家签证;革新消费者(innovator的复数形式);
come together with their patrons and their financiers to talk about issues , entertain , enlighten , provoke each other." 与他们的赞助人和金融家们在一起 谈论的热门话题,娱乐和启蒙, 彼此启迪 。
patrons:n.赞助人;老顾客(patron的复数);庇护人; financiers:n.金融家;融资人;[财政]财政家(financier的复数形式); issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) entertain:v.娱乐;款待;使有兴趣;使快乐; enlighten:v.启发,启蒙;教导,开导;照耀; provoke:vt.驱使;激怒;煽动;惹起;
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference . 这样的社会,看起来很像 TED 大会。
Conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here. 实际上大量的真相就在这里。
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place. 我们看到了令人惊异的蓬勃发展。
flourishing:adj.繁荣的;繁茂的;v.繁荣;兴旺;茁壮成长;(flourish的现在分词)
In a world where it is just about as easy to generate an object as it is to print a document, we have amazing new possibilities. 在这个我们可以像 打印文档一样生成物体的世界, 我们有令人惊异的无限可能。
generate:v.产生;引起;
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists are now makers, and they're responsible for massive amounts of innovation . 那些曾经的手艺人和业余爱好者 现在是决策者 负责大量的创新工作。
craftsmen:n.工匠;手艺人(craftsman的复数形式); hobbyists:n.(业余)爱好者;(hobbyist的复数) responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的; massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
And artists who were formerly constrained can now do things that were never, ever possible for them before. 那些以前受到各种限制的艺术家 可以尝试前所未有有的创作 远胜先人。
formerly:adv.以前;原来; constrained:adj.不自然的; v.约束; (constrain的过去分词和过去式)
So this is a time of great flourishing, and the more I look around, the more convinced I become that this quote , from the physicist Freeman Dyson, is not hyperbole at all. 所以这是一个伟大的时期, 我们环顾四周,越发相信 物理学家弗里曼 · 戴森的箴言 一点都不夸张。
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式) quote:v.引用;报价;举例说明;开价;为(企业的股份)上市;n.引用; physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者; Freeman:n.自由民;享有市民权的人;荣誉市民; hyperbole:n.夸张的语句;夸张法;
This is just a plain statement of the facts. 它只是对事实的平实陈述而已。
statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单;
We are in the middle of an astonishing period. 我们正处在一个非常时期。
astonishing:adj.令人十分惊讶的;v.使十分惊讶;使吃惊;(astonish的现在分词)
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations , of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson] [ 技术是上帝的恩赐,是仅次于“生命”的恩典。它是文明、 艺术和科学的母亲 — — 弗里曼 · 戴森]
civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式);
Which brings up another great question: 这就引出另一个大问题:
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age? 在这新的机器时代,哪些东西会走上岔路？
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home. 对吧？太好了,蓬勃发展,回家去。
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges as we head deeper into the future that we're creating. 我们要面对两大棘手的挑战 当进一步靠近我们正在创造的未来
thorny:adj.多刺的;痛苦的;令人苦恼的;
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther, who was the head of the auto workers union. 首先是经济方面, 这通过一个杜撰的故事已经有很好的总结 故事关于亨利 · 福特二世（汽车生产商） 和沃尔特·鲁瑟,汽车工人工会的领袖。
nicely:adv.细致地;有吸引力;令人满意;令人愉快;adj.强健的; summarized:v.总结,概括;概述(summarize的过去式及过去分词形式); apocryphal:adj.伪的;可疑的; back-and-forth:前后移动的,来回的,反复的; Ford:n.福特[姓氏];浅滩;v.涉(水);渡河;津渡;
They were touring one of the new modern factories, and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says, "Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots to pay union dues?" 他们一起参观最现代化的汽车工厂, 然后福特开玩笑地对鲁瑟说: 嘿,沃尔特,你怎么让这些机器人 来支付工会会费?
playfully:adv.开玩笑地;好游玩地;
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry, how are you going to get them to buy cars?" 鲁瑟回答, 嘿,亨利 你怎么能让他们买你的车?
Reuther's problem in that anecdote is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy that's full of machines, and we see this very clearly in the statistics . 在这个故事中,鲁瑟面临的问题 实质上是面对一个充满机器的经济体 很难去提供人的劳动。 我们可以在统计数据中,非常清楚地看到。
anecdote:n.轶事;奇闻;秘史; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
If you look over the past couple decades at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits -- we see them going up, and we see that they're now at an all-time high. 在过去的几十年 资本收益 — — 换言之,企业利润 — — 我们看到它们在增长, 而且目前正是历史最高水平。
corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; profits:n.利润; v.获益; (profit的第三人称单数和复数) all-time:adj.空前的;全部时间的;历来的;
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words total wages paid out in the economy, we see them at an all-time low and heading very quickly in the opposite direction. 如果我们对比一下劳动力,换句话说 在经济体中,总工资的发放, 我们看到这一数据是空前的低 两者非常迅速地朝着相反方向偏离。
wages:n.[劳经]工资; v.开展(运动等)(wage的第三人称单数形式); all-time low:低谷;
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther. 所以这就是鲁瑟的坏消息（工人少,会费少）。
It looks like it might be great news for Ford, but it's actually not. If you want to sell huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people, you really want a large, stable , prosperous middle class . 但看起来它可能是福特的好消息, 然而实际上不是。如果你想要卖出 数量巨大的昂贵商品, 你需要一个大型的、 稳定的、 繁荣的中产阶级。
volumes:n.卷;体积;容积;大量;(volumes是volume的复数) somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微; stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房; prosperous:adj.繁荣的;兴旺的; middle class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的;
We have had one of those in America for just about the entire postwar period. 经历了整个战后时期 美国已经形成了这样一个中产阶级
postwar:adj.战后的;n.战后时期;adv.战后;在战后;
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now. 但中产阶层显然正处在巨大的威胁中。
We all know a lot of the statistics, but just to repeat one of them, median income in America has actually gone down over the past 15 years, and we're in danger of getting trapped 我们都知道很多统计数据, 只提其中一个, 在美国,中产阶级收入的减少 已经持续了15年, 我们处在陷入持续恶化的
median:n.n.中值,中位数;三角形中线;梯形中位线;adj.中值的;中央的; trapped:adj.受困的;受限制的;v.使落入险境;使陷入困境;(trap的过去分词和过去式)
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization continue to go up over time. 不平等与两极分化的 恶性循环的危险之中
vicious:adj.恶毒的;恶意的;堕落的;有错误的;品性不端的;剧烈的; polarization:n.极化;偏振;两极分化;
The societal challenges that come along with that kind of inequality deserve some attention. 这些伴随不平等现象带来的 社会挑战值得关注。
societal:adj.社会的; deserve:vi.应受,应得;
There are a set of societal challenges that I'm actually not that worried about, and they're captured by images like this. 相比这些严峻的社会挑战 我倒不会担心这种 被机器人逆袭的危险。
captured:adj.捕获的;被俘的;v.捕获;占领;引起;(capture的过去式和过去分词) images:n.印象;声誉;形象;画像;雕像;(image的第三人称单数和复数)
This is not the kind of societal problem that I am concerned about. 这不是我所担心的 那种社会问题。
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词)
There is no shortage of dystopian visions about what happens when our machines become self-aware , and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us. 这个世界从不缺 当我们的机器拥有自我意识, 并决定崛起和发动对我们的攻击的反乌托邦式幻想
shortage:n.短缺;不足;缺少; dystopian:adj.反面假想国的;反面乌托邦的;n.反面乌托邦的鼓吹者; visions:n.愿景; v.想像; self-aware:adj.有自知之明的; coordinate:n.坐标; v.协调; adj.同等的;
I'm going to start worrying about those the day my computer becomes aware of my printer. 但我要开始担心的是 某一天我的电脑知道了打印机的存在。
(Laughter) (Applause) （笑声）（掌声）
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about. 所以机器人的进攻并不是我们真正需要担心的。
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges that are going to come up in the new machine age, 为了让大家对新机器时代的社会挑战 有更好的理解
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers. 我想讲一个故事,关于两个典型的美国工人。
stereotypical:adj.老一套的;陈规的;
And to make them really stereotypical, let's make them both white guys. 为了使它们真正典型, 我们假设他们是两个白人。
And the first one is a college-educated professional , creative type, manager, engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker. 第一个是接受大学教育 专业的、 创造性的类型, 管理者,工程师、 医生、 律师、 代表这类人群。
professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员; creative:adj.创造性的;
We're going to call him "Ted."
He's at the top of the American middle class. 他处在美国中产阶级的顶层。
His counterpart is not college-educated and works as a laborer , works as a clerk, does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy. 预制对应的是未经大学教育的 普通工人和职员, 低级白领或蓝领工作者。
laborer:n.劳动者;工人; low-level:adj.低水平的;低级别的; blue collar:adj.穿蓝领工装的;体力劳动的;蓝领阶级;
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
And if you go back about 50 years, 如果在 50 年前,
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives. Bill和Ted这两种人的生活差别不大。
remarkably:adv.非常;极为;格外;出乎意料地
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week. 例如,在 1960 年他们两人都很有可能 有全职工作,一周工作 40 个小时。
full-time:adj.专职的;全日制的;全部时间的;
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented, as we started to automate the economy, and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses, as we started to progressively inject technology and automation and digital stuff into the economy, the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot. 但根据社会研究员查尔斯 · 默里的记载, 当我们开始经济自动化, 1960 年正是计算机开始进入商用, 我们开始逐步将技术 自动化和数字化注入经济 Bill和Ted的命运,偏离了很多。
progressively:adv.渐进地;日益增多地; inject:v.注入;注射; automation:n.自动化;自动操作; digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: fortunes:n.命运,机遇(fortune复数形式); v.给…以大宗财富(fortune的第三人称单数形式); diverged:v.分叉;分歧;相异;偏离;背离;(diverge的过去分词和过去式)
Over this time frame , Ted has continued to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't. 在这时间轴上,Ted继续 保持一份全职工作,Bill却没有。
time frame:n.期间时限;
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely, and Ted very rarely has. 在许多情况下,Bill已完全无法维持生计, 而Ted却几乎不会出现这种情况。
rarely:adv.很少地;难得;罕有地;
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy. 随着时间的推移,Ted的婚姻一直很快乐。
Bill's hasn't. Bill却并非如此。
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home, while Bill's absolutely have not over time. Ted的孩子们在双亲家庭中长大, 然而Bill的孩子却没有这么幸运。
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society? Bill会在其他方面与社会脱节吗？
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections, and he's started to go to prison a lot more often. 越来越少的Bill参与总统选举的投票 越来越多的Bill开始光顾监狱。
decreased:v.减少,减小,降低;(decrease的过去分词和过去式) presidential:adj.总统的;首长的;统辖的;
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends , and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves. 我没法给大家展示一个乐观的社会趋势 而他们(Bills)也没有任何改变自己的迹象。
trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数) reversing:v.颠倒;彻底转变;使完全相反;(reverse的现在分词)
They're also true no matter which ethnic group or demographic group we look at, and they're actually getting so severe that they're in danger of overwhelming even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement . 这是一个普遍的事实,无论是在哪一个民族 哪一个社会群体, 都已经变得如此严重 这才是我所说的压倒性的社会挑战 即便我们在公民权利运动中已经有所进展。
ethnic:adj.种族的;人种的; demographic:adj.人口统计学的;人口学的; severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的; overwhelming:adj.势不可挡的; v.压倒; (overwhelm的现在分词) Civil Rights Movement:n.(美国)民权运动(20世纪50年代和60年代非裔美国人争取平等权利的运动);
And what my friends in Silicon Valley and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted. 而我在硅谷的朋友 在剑桥的朋友,他们就是Ted。
overlooking:v.忽略;不予理会;俯视;眺望;(overlook的现在分词)
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives, and they've got all the benefits to show from that, while Bill is leading a very different life. 他们过着忙碌、 富有成效的生活, 并从中受益, 然而Bill却过着完全不同的生活。
productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的;
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was when he talked about the benefits of work, and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils. 他们实际上都验证了伏尔泰的箴言 伏尔泰论述工作的益处, 归功于,它将人类从三大罪恶中拯救。
proof:n.证据;证实;adj.能抵御;可防护; Voltaire:n.伏尔泰(法国启蒙思想家,哲学家,作家,历史学家);
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom , vice and need." — Voltaire] [ 工作把人从三大罪恶——无聊,堕落,贫乏——中拯救出来 — — 伏尔泰]
boredom:n.厌倦;令人厌烦的事物; vice:n.恶习;缺点;[机]老虎钳;卖淫;prep.代替;v.钳住;adj.副的;代替的;
So with these challenges, what do we do about them? 那么,面对这些挑战,我们需要如何去做？
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear, surprisingly straightforward , in the short term especially. 经济的剧本是出奇地明确, 直截了当,尤其是在短期内。
playbook:n.剧本; surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地 straightforward:adj.简单的;坦率的;明确的;径直的;adv.直截了当地;坦率地;
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two, so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine: 机器人还不至于在一两年内揽下我们所有的工作, 所以经典的经济学剧本也可以发挥效用:
classic:n.名著;优秀的典范;adj.最优秀的;第一流的;有代表性的;典型的;
Encourage entrepreneurship , double down on infrastructure , and make sure we're turning out people from our educational system with the appropriate skills. 鼓励创业精神, 翻倍的基础设施建设, 并确保我们正在提升我们自身, 通过教育制度培养相应的技能。
entrepreneurship:n.企业家精神; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; educational:adj.教育的;有关教育的;有教育意义的 appropriate:adj.适当的;恰当的;v.占用,拨出;
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy that's heavy on technology and light on labor, and we are, then we have to consider some more radical interventions , for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income. 但在长期看来,如果我们正在进入一个 重技术轻体力的经济体, 那么我们就必须要考虑 一些更激进的干预措施, 例如,最低收入保障。
radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的; interventions:n.[法]干预,干涉;处置(intervention的复数); guaranteed:adj.必然的; v.保证; minimum:n.最低限度;最小值;最少量;极小量;adj.最低的;最小的;最低限度的;
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable, because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth . 现在,这些可能会造成在坐各位的反感, 因为这种想法曾与极端左翼连在一起 他们采用非常激进的手段,来重新分配财富。
associated:adj.有关联的; v.联想; (associate的过去分词和过去式) extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; left wing:adj.左派的; fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直; schemes:n.方案,计划;阴谋(scheme的复数);v.计划,设计;谋划(scheme的三单形式); redistributing:n.重新分配;v.再分配;重新分布(redistribute的ing形式); wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
I did a little bit of research on this notion , and it might calm some folk down to know that the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists 我对此做了一些研究, 它可能会让一些民间的反感趋于冷静 最低收入保障的概念 曾经被社会主义者们所拥护
notion:n.观念;信念;理解; socialists:n.社会主义者;社会党党员(socialist的复数)
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman. 弗里德里克·哈耶克、 理查德 · 尼克松和米尔顿 · 弗里德曼。
Nixon:n.尼克松(美国第37任总统);
And if you find yourself worried that something like a guaranteed income is going to stifle our drive to succeed and make us kind of complacent , you might be interested to know that social mobility , 如果你发现自己正在担心 诸如最低保障收入 正在扼杀我们成功的动力 让我们洋洋自得 你可能会有兴趣知道,社会的流动性,
stifle:vt.扼杀; vi.窒息; n.(马等的)后膝关节; (马等的)[动]后膝关节病; complacent:adj.自满的;得意的;满足的; mobility:n.移动性;机动性;[电子]迁移率;
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States, is now lower than it is in the northern European countries that have these very generous social safety nets. 这在美国,是让我们引以为傲的方面 现在却比不上北欧的国家 它们有着更为慷慨的社保网络。
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) generous:adj.慷慨的,大方的;宽宏大量的;有雅量的;
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward. 所以经济方面实际上相当简单。
The societal one is a lot more challenging. 社会方面却更具挑战。
I don't know what the playbook is for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life. 我不知道设计怎样的社会剧本才能 让Bill重新参与和介入社会生活
engaged:adj.已订婚的; v.吸引住; (engage的过去分词和过去式) throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
I do know that education is a huge part of it. 我只知道教育是不可或缺的一部分。
I witnessed this firsthand . 对此我深有体会。
witnessed:v.当场看到,目击;见证;作证;(witness的过去式和过去分词) firsthand:adj.直接的;直接采购的;直接得来的;adv.直接地;
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education, and what that education taught me is that the world is an interesting place and my job is to go explore it. 我在蒙特梭利接受了几年的低龄教育, 这种教育让我认为 这个世界非常有趣 而我的工作就是要去探索它。
explore:v.探索:探测:探险:
The school stopped in third grade, so then I entered the public school system, and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag . 学校在三年级时,就停办了, 然后我进入公立学校系统, 我感觉就像被派到劳改营。
public school:(美国和苏格兰的初等或中等的)公立中小学;寄宿学校; Gulag:n.古拉格(集中营);
With the benefit of hindsight , I now know the job was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer, but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of bore me into some submission with what was going on around me. 事后看来,现在我知道这种教育 是让我成为一个职员或技工作准备, 但与此同时我也觉得这种教育 让我卷入到了无尽的厌烦之中。
hindsight:n.后见之明;枪的照门; submission:n.投降;提交(物);服从;(向法官提出的)意见;谦恭;
We have to do better than this. 我们必须做得比这更好。
We cannot keep turning out Bills. 我们不能把下一代继续变成Bill。
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better. 我们已经看到有些好转的苗头。
We see technology deeply impacting education and engaging people, from our youngest learners up to our oldest ones. 我们看到技术已经深深地影响了教育 吸引各个层次的求知者,从新生一代 到我们这些老骨头。
impacting:[力]冲击;[力]撞击;[物]碰撞(impact的现在分词); engaging:adj.有趣的; v.吸引住(注意力、兴趣); (engage的现在分词)
We see very prominent business voices telling us we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while . 我们听到非常显著的来自商界的声音 告诉我们要反思那些我们一度坚持的事物。
prominent:adj.突出的,显著的;杰出的;卓越的; rethink:v.重新考虑;再想;n.重新考虑;反思;新想法; for a while:adv.片刻;暂时;一会儿;一时;
And we see very serious and sustained and data-driven efforts to understand how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have. 我们看到非常严肃和持久的 数据驱动的努力 以了解如何去干预我们那些最不安的群体。
sustained:adj.持续的; v.维持; (sustain的过去分词和过去式) data-driven:adj.依照数据处理的; intervene:vi.干涉;调停;插入; communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数)
So the green shoots are out there. 所以希望就在那里。
I don't want to pretend for a minute that what we have is going to be enough. 我连一分钟的假装都做不到 我们现在所拥有的真的是不够。
for a minute:一会儿;
We're facing very tough challenges. 我们现在面临着非常严峻的挑战。
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans who have been unemployed for at least six months. 仅举一个例子,有大约 500 万美国人 已经失业至少六个月了。
unemployed:adj.失业的;下岗的;n.(集合词)失业者;
We're not going to fix things for them by sending them back to Montessori. 我们没法通过将他们送回 蒙特梭利的幼儿园来解决它
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world where we're going to have glittering technologies embedded in kind of a shabby society and supported by an economy that generates inequality instead of opportunity. 我最担心的,是我们要创建的世界 虽有闪闪发光的技术 却还是一套破旧的社会体制 由不公而非机会 所维持的经济
glittering:adj.闪闪发光的;v.闪闪发光;(glitter的现在分词); technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); embedded:adj.嵌入式的;植入的;内含的;v.嵌入(embed的过去式和过去分词形式); shabby:adj.破旧的;卑鄙的;吝啬的;低劣的; generates:[计]生成;发生;
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do. 但我并不认为我们会维持现在的所作所为。
I think we're going to do something a lot better for one very straightforward reason: 我认为我们会做得更好 一个非常简单的原因:
The facts are getting out there. 事实已经呈现在眼前。
The realities of this new machine age and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known. 新机器时代已经到来 经济的变革也更加广为人知。
If we wanted to accelerate that process , we could do things like have our best economists and policymakers play " Jeopardy !" against Watson. 如果我们想要加快这一进程,我们可以做的事情 比如让我们最好的经济学家和政策制定者 对人工智能程序发出 危险! 警告。
accelerate:v.加快;加速;n.接受速成教育的学生; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; policymakers:n.决策人;(policymaker的复数) Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地;
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip. 我们可以通过自发的公路游行向国会传达。
Congress:n.国会;代表大会;会议;社交; autonomous:adj.自治的;自主的;自发的;
And if we do enough of these kinds of things, the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different. 如果我们做足够多的这类事情, 这种意识就会渗入社会,情况就会发生变化。
awareness:n.意识,认识;明白,知道;
And then we're off to the races, because I don't believe for a second that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try. 然后我们就出发去行动, 哪怕只有一秒,我也不会相信 我们会忘记如何解决严峻的挑战 或者我们已经变得太冷漠、麻木甚至不敢尝试。
apathetic:adj.冷漠的;无动于衷的,缺乏兴趣的; hard-hearted:adj.铁石心肠的;无情的;
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths who were separated by an ocean and a century. 我通过引用文豪的名言开始我的演讲 他们来自一个世纪前海洋的另一端。
quotes:n.引用,引号;报价(quote的复数);v.报价(quote的第三人称单数);引用;复述; wordsmiths:n.擅长文字的人,舞文弄墨者;作家;
Let me end it with words from politicians who were similarly distant . 现在让我用政治家的言论来结束演讲 他们同样地遥远。
politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数) similarly:adv.同样地;类似于; distant:adj.遥远的;远处的;久远的;
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949, and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses of the people in every land to the table of abundance, it can only be by the tireless improvement of all of our means of technical production." 温斯顿 · 丘吉尔在1949年来到麻省理工学院 他说,“如果我们要带领广大人民群众 走向繁荣富裕, 只能通过不懈的改进 改进一切技术生产手段。”
Churchill:n.邱吉尔(英国政治家及作家); masses:n.民众;大量(mass的复数);包块;v.集中;聚集(mass的三单形式); tireless:adj.不知疲倦的;不疲劳的; improvement:n.改进,改善; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient . 亚伯拉罕 · 林肯认识到另一个方面。
ingredient:n.原料;要素;组成部分;adj.构成组成部分的;
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people. 他说, 我是一位对人民有坚定信心的人。
believer:n.信徒;相信的人;
If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis . 如果给他们真相, 他们可以面对任何国家的危机。
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
The great point is to give them the plain facts." 最重要的是,给他们真正的事实。”
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear, and I have every confidence that we're going to use them to chart a good course into the challenging, abundant economy that we're creating. 所以乐观的说,我想要留给你们的是 新机器时代的到来已经是显而易见的事实, 我有十足的信心,我们可以驾驭机器 来通过充满挑战的社会课程, 迎接我们正在创造的经济繁荣。
optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的; abundant:adj.丰富的;充裕的;盛产;
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
(Applause) （掌声）