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AndrewMcAfee_2012X-_机器人会抢走我们的工作吗_
As it turns out, when tens of millions of people are unemployed or underemployed , there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force. [00:13]
unemployed:adj.失业的;下岗的;n.(集合词)失业者; underemployed:adj.未充分就业的;学非所用的;只有部分时间被雇用的;n.大材小用的人; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me that it's focused on exactly the right topic, and at the same time , it's missing the point entirely. [00:22]
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时;
The topic that it's focused on, the question is whether or not all these digital technologies are affecting people's ability to earn a living , or, to say it a little bit different way, are the droids taking our jobs? [00:30]
whether or not:是否…; digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); earn a living:谋生;活命; droids:n.机器人;
And there's some evidence that they are. [00:42]
evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed its kind of slow, steady march upward , and some other economic indicators also started to rebound , and they got kind of healthy kind of quickly. Corporate profits [00:44]
Recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回; resumed:n.摘要; vt.重新开始,继续; vi.重新开始,继续; steady:adj.稳定的; v.使稳定; v.稳定地; n.关系固定的情侣; upward:adj.向上的;上升的;adv.向上; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; indicators:n.指示信号;标志;指针;方向灯;(indicator的复数) rebound:n.回弹;篮板球;v.回升;弹回;使弹回;(rebind的过去式和过去分词); Corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; profits:n.利润; v.获益; (profit的第三人称单数和复数)
are quite high. In fact, if you include bank profits, they're higher than they've ever been. [00:58]
And business investment in gear , in equipment and hardware and software is at an all-time high. [01:03]
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; gear:n.齿轮; v.适合; hardware:n.计算机硬件;五金器具; all-time:adj.空前的;全部时间的;历来的;
So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks . [01:10]
checkbooks:n.支票簿;
What they're not really doing is hiring. [01:13]
So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio , in other words, the percentage of working age people in America who have work. [01:15]
ratio:n.比率;比例;v.用比例方式表达;求出…的比值;使…成比例; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成;
And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession, and it hasn't started to bounce back at all. [01:24]
cratered:adj.有坑洞的;多坑的;v.形成坑(crater的过去式和过去分词); bounce:v.反弹;反射;(使)弹起;n.弹跳;跳动;弹性;
But the story is not just a recession story. [01:31]
The decade that we've just been through had relatively anemic job growth all throughout , especially when we compare it to other decades, and the 2000s are the only time we have on record where there were fewer people working at the end of the decade than at the beginning . This is not what you want to see. [01:33]
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; anemic:adj.患贫血症的,贫血的; throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较; at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始;
When you graph the number of potential employees versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap gets bigger and bigger over time, and then, during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way. [01:51]
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗; gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开;
I did some quick calculations. I took the last 20 years of GDP growth and the last 20 years of labor productivity growth and used those in a fairly straightforward way [02:04]
productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力; fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直; straightforward:adj.简单的;坦率的;明确的;径直的;adv.直截了当地;坦率地;
to try to project how many jobs the economy was going to need to keep growing, and this is the line that I came up with. [02:15]
economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
Is that good or bad? This is the government's projection for the working age population going forward. [02:21]
projection:n.投射;规划;突出;发射;推测;
So if these predictions are accurate , that gap is not going to close. [02:28]
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); accurate:adj.精确的;
The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate. [02:33]
projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数)
In particular , I think my projection is way too optimistic , because when I did it, I was assuming that the future was kind of going to look like the past [02:37]
In particular:尤其,特别; optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
with labor productivity growth, and that's actually not what I believe, because when I look around, I think that we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force. [02:46]
impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before, and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human beings do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples. [02:56]
display:n.显示;炫耀;vt.显示;表现;陈列;vi.[动]作炫耀行为;adj.展览的;陈列用的;
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something translated from one language into another, you had to involve a human being. [03:12]
involve:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;
Now we have multi-language, instantaneous , automatic translation services available for free via many of our devices all the way down to smartphones . [03:18]
instantaneous:adj.瞬间的;即时的;猝发的; automatic:adj.自动的;无意识的;必然的;n.自动步枪;自动换挡汽车; via:prep.通过;经由;n.道路;[医]管道; devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数); smartphones:智能手机(smartphone的复数);
And if any of us have used these, we know that they're not perfect, but they're decent . [03:29]
decent:adj.正派的;得体的;相当好的;
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written, a report or an article, you had to involve a person. [03:35]
Not anymore. This is an article that appeared in Forbes online a while back about Apple's earnings . [03:42]
Forbes:n.福布斯(美国著名财经杂志);福布斯(美国出版及媒体集团);福布斯(姓氏); earnings:n.收益;收入;利润;赢利;
It was written by an algorithm. [03:47]
And it's not decent, it's perfect. [03:50]
A lot of people look at this and they say, "Okay, but those are very specific , narrow tasks, and most knowledge workers are actually generalists , and what they do is sit on top of a very large body of expertise and knowledge and they use that [03:53]
specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分; generalists:n.多面手;(generalists是generalist的复数); expertise:n.专门知识;专门技术;专家的意见;
to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands, and that's very, very hard to automate ." [04:06]
react:v.起反应;回应;(对食物等)有不良反应,过敏;起化学反应; on the fly:n.邻近备用设备;即时烧录;真时; unpredictable:adj.不可预知的;不定的;出乎意料的;n.不可预言的事; automate:v.使自动化;
One of the most impressive knowledge workers in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings. [04:12]
impressive:adj.感人的;令人钦佩的;给人以深刻印象的; Ken:n.视野范围,见地,知识范围;
He won the quiz show " Jeopardy !" 74 times in a row, took home three million dollars. [04:16]
quiz:n.小测验;知识竞赛;v.盘问;查问;询问; Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地;
That's Ken on the right getting beat three to one by [04:24]
Watson, the "Jeopardy!"-playing supercomputer from IBM. [04:28]
supercomputer:n.[计]巨型计算机,超级计算机;
So when we look at what technology can do to general knowledge workers, I start to think there might not be something so special about this idea of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things [04:32]
general knowledge:n.常识;一般知识; particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
like hooking Siri up to Watson and having technologies that can understand what we're saying and repeat speech back to us. [04:43]
hooking:v.(使)钩住,挂住;钩住;钓鱼;(hook的现在分词) Siri:n.iPhone4S上的语音控制功能;
Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun of her flaws , but we should also keep in mind that if technologies like Siri and Watson improve along a Moore's Law trajectory , which they will, [04:51]
make fun of:取笑; flaws:n.[材]缺陷;[力]裂缝(flaw的复数);v.有裂纹;使有裂缝(flaw的单三形式); keep in mind:记住; improve:v.改进;改善; trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道;
in six years, they're not going to be two times better or four times better, they'll be 16 times better than they are right now. [05:03]
So I start to think that a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this. [05:10]
And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work. [05:14]
impacting:[力]冲击;[力]撞击;[物]碰撞(impact的现在分词);
They're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well. [05:17]
flex:vt.折曲;使收缩;vi.弯曲;收缩;n.屈曲;电线;松紧带;adj.弹性工作制的; muscles:n.肌肉(muscle的复数); physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查;
I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds. (Laughter) [05:21]
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; autonomous:adj.自治的;自主的;自发的;
And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic on U.S. 101 very smoothly . [05:29]
vouch:v.担保;证明;传出庭作证;保证;证明;确定; stop-and-go:adj.定期而不断被迫停止的,走走停停的; smoothly:adv.平稳地,平滑地;流畅地,流利地;
There are about three and a half million people who drive trucks for a living in the United States. [05:35]
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
I think some of them are going to be affected by this technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive . They can't do very much. [05:40]
humanoid:adj.像人的;n.类人动物; incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; primitive:adj.原始的,远古的;简单的,粗糙的;n.原始人;
But they're getting better quite quickly, and DARPA, which is the investment arm of the Defense Department, is trying to accelerate their trajectory. [05:48]
accelerate:v.加快;加速;n.接受速成教育的学生;
So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs. [05:56]
In the short term, we can stimulate job growth by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing in infrastructure , because the robots today still aren't very good at fixing bridges. [06:01]
stimulate:v.刺激;激发;促进;激励; entrepreneurship:n.企业家精神; investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词) infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes of most of the people in this room, we're going to transition into an economy that is very productive but that just doesn't need a lot of human workers, and managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces. [06:12]
transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡; productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的;
Voltaire summarized why. He said, "Work saves us from three great evils: boredom , vice and need." [06:29]
Voltaire:n.伏尔泰(法国启蒙思想家,哲学家,作家,历史学家); summarized:v.总结,概括;概述(summarize的过去式及过去分词形式); boredom:n.厌倦;令人厌烦的事物;
But despite this challenge, I'm personally , [06:37]
despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言;
I'm still a huge digital optimist, and I am supremely confident that the digital technologies that we're developing now are going to take us into a utopian future, not a dystopian future. And to explain why, [06:40]
supremely:adv.至上地;崇高地; confident:adj.自信的;确信的; utopian:adj.乌托邦的;空想的;理想化的;n.空想家;乌托邦的居民; dystopian:adj.反面假想国的;反面乌托邦的;n.反面乌托邦的鼓吹者;
I want to pose kind of a ridiculously broad question. [06:53]
pose:v.引起; n.装腔作势; (为画像、拍照等摆的)姿势; ridiculously:adv.可笑地;荒谬地;
I want to ask what have been the most important developments in human history? [06:55]
Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten in response to this question. It's a wonderful question to ask and to start an endless debate about, because some people are going to bring up [07:00]
in response to:响应;回答;对…有反应; endless:adj.无止境的;连续的;环状的;漫无目的的; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑;
systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that have changed how a lot of people think about the world. [07:09]
philosophy:n.哲学;哲理;人生观;
And then other people will say, "No, actually, the big stories, the big developments are the founding of the world's major religions, which have changed civilizations [07:16]
civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式);
and have changed and influenced how countless people are living their lives." And then some other folk will say, "Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them and what changes people's lives [07:24]
influenced:v.影响;对…起作用;支配;左右;(influence的过去分词和过去式) countless:adj.无数的;数不尽的; modifies:vt.修改,修饰;更改;vi.修改;
are empires, so the great developments in human history are stories of conquest and of war." [07:36]
conquest:n.征服;占领;占领(或征服)的地区;(爱情或性方面)被俘虏的人;
And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up and says, "Hey, don't forget about plagues ." (Laughter) [07:42]
cheery:adj.愉快的,活泼的; plagues:[医]瘟疫;
There are some optimistic answers to this question, so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration and the opening up of the world. [07:51]
Exploration:n.探索;勘探;探险;[医]探查术; opening up:n.解禁;开放;供开发;启用;
Others will talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines like math that have helped us get a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about periods when there was a deep flourishing of the arts and sciences. So this debate will go on and on . [07:57]
intellectual:n.知识分子;脑力劳动者;adj.智力的;脑力的;理智的;有才智的; disciplines:n.[管理]纪律(discipline的复数); v.训导; handle:n.[建]把手;柄;手感;口实;v.处理;操作;运用;买卖;触摸; flourishing:adj.繁荣的;繁茂的;v.繁荣;兴旺;茁壮成长;(flourish的现在分词) on and on:继续不停地;
It's an endless debate, and there's no conclusive , no single answer to it. But if you're a geek like me, you say, "Well, what do the data say?" [08:11]
conclusive:adj.决定性的;最后的;确实的;确定性的; geek:n.做低级滑稽表演的人,反常的人; n.(俚)极客,即智力超群,善于钻研但不懂与人交往的怪才;
And you start to do things like graph things that we might be interested in, the total worldwide population, for example, or some measure of social development, or the state of advancement of a society, [08:20]
worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地; advancement:n.前进,进步;提升;
and you start to plot the data, because, by this approach , the big stories, the big developments in human history, are the ones that will bend these curves a lot. [08:32]
plot:n.情节;阴谋;布局;小块土地;v.密谋;暗中策划;(在地图上)标出;绘制(图表); approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理; curves:n.曲线; v.(使)沿曲线运动; (curve的第三人称单数和复数)
So when you do this, and when you plot the data, you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions . [08:41]
weird:adj.奇怪的;奇异的;离奇的;n.命运;宿命;命运女神; conclusions:n.结论,总结;决定;(conclusion的复数)
You conclude , actually, that none of these things have mattered very much. (Laughter) [08:46]
conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定)
They haven't done a darn thing to the curves. (Laughter) [08:54]
darn:v.织补,缝补;n.织补;
There has been one story, one development in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about 90 degrees, and it is a technology story. [08:58]
The steam engine, and the other associated technologies of the Industrial Revolution changed the world and influenced human history so much, that in the words of the historian Ian Morris, they made mockery out of all that had come before. [09:08]
associated:adj.有关联的; v.联想; (associate的过去分词和过去式) Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; mockery:n.嘲弄;笑柄;徒劳无功;拙劣可笑的模仿或歪曲;
And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles. [09:22]
infinitely:adv.无限地;极其; multiplying:n.繁殖;adj.乘法的;v.乘;繁殖;增加(multiply的ing形式); overcoming:v.克服;解决;战胜;(overcome的现在分词) limitations:n.局限性;(限制)因素;边界(limitation的复数形式);
Now, what we're in the middle of now is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains and infinitely multiplying our mental power. [09:28]
individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的; mental:adj.精神的;脑力的;疯的;n.精神病患者;
How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming the limitations of our muscles? [09:37]
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look at what's going on with digital technology these days, we are not anywhere near through with this journey , [09:43]
at the risk of:冒着…的危险; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行;
and when I look at what is happening to our economies and our societies, my single conclusion is that we ain't seen nothing yet. The best days are really ahead. [09:52]
economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
Let me give you a couple examples. [10:01]
Economies don't run on energy. They don't run on capital, they don't run on labor. Economies run on ideas. [10:03]
So the work of innovation , the work of coming up with new ideas, is some of the most powerful, some of the most fundamental work that we can do in an economy. And this is kind of how we used to do innovation. [10:11]
innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people — (Laughter) — we'd take them out of elite institutions , we'd put them into other elite institutions , and we'd wait for the innovation. [10:21]
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; elite:n.精英;精华;杰出人物; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
Now — (Laughter) — as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT and Harvard , I got no problem with this. (Laughter) [10:34]
career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; Harvard:n.哈佛大学;哈佛大学学生;
But some other people do, and they've kind of crashed the party and loosened up the dress code of innovation. [10:47]
loosened:adj.松的;分散的,疏松的;v.放松,松开(loosen的过去时和过去分词); dress code:n.(工作时的)着装规定;
(Laughter) [10:52]
So here are the winners of a Top Coder programming challenge, and I assure you that nobody cares where these kids grew up, where they went to school, or what they look like. All anyone cares about is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas. [10:53]
Coder:n.编码器;编码员; assure:vt.保证;担保;使确信;弄清楚;
And over and over again , we see this happening in the technology-facilitated world. [11:09]
over and over again:adv.一再地;反复不断地;
The work of innovation is becoming more open, more inclusive , more transparent , and more merit-based , and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard think of it, and I couldn't be happier about that development. [11:13]
inclusive:adj.包括的,包含的; transparent:adj.透明的;显然的;坦率的;易懂的; merit-based:adj.基于优秀的;以业绩为基础的; no matter what:不管什么…;
I hear once in a while , "Okay, I'll grant you that, but technology is still a tool for the rich world, and what's not happening, these digital tools are not improving the lives of people at the bottom of the pyramid." [11:26]
once in a while:偶尔;有时; grant:v.授予;允许;承认;同意;n.拨款;[法]授予物; improving:v.改进;改善;(improve的现在分词)
And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense . [11:38]
nonsense:n.胡说;废话;adj.荒谬的;int.胡说;
The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology. [11:41]
The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study a while back where he watched, in great detail, what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India, [11:44]
when they got mobile phones for the very first time, and when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics, you have to use very dry and very circumspect language, [11:53]
mobile:n.手机;汽车;移动电话;adj.活跃的;可动的; Quarterly:adj.季度的,按季度的; v.按季度,[农]一季一次地; n.季刊; Journal:n.杂志;日记;日志;(用于报纸名)…报; circumspect:adj.细心的,周到的;慎重的;
but when I read his paper, I kind of feel Jensen is trying to scream at us, and say, look, this was a big deal . [12:02]
a big deal:na.要人;重要的事;
Prices stabilized , so people could plan their economic lives. [12:07]
stabilized:adj.稳定的;减摇的;v.稳定(stabilize的过去分词);
Waste was not reduced; it was eliminated . [12:11]
eliminated:v.排除;清除;消除;(比赛中)淘汰;消灭;(eliminate的过去式和过去分词)
And the lives of both the buyers and the sellers in these villages measurably improved . [12:16]
buyers:n.[贸易]买主;买方市场;采购者;购货者(buyer的复数); measurably:adv.可以测定的程度;可视地; improved:adj.改良的:v.改进:改善(improve的过去分词和过去式)
Now, what I don't think is that Jensen got extremely lucky and happened to land in the one set of villages where technology made things better. [12:21]
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地;
What happened instead is he very carefully documented what happens over and over again when technology comes for the first time to an environment and a community . [12:29]
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
The lives of people, the welfares of people, improve dramatically . [12:38]
welfares:n.福利;幸福;福利事业;安宁;adj.福利的;接受社会救济的; dramatically:adv.戏剧地;引人注目地;adv.显著地,剧烈地;
So as I look around at all the evidence, and I think about the room that we have ahead of us, I become a huge digital optimist, and I start to think that this wonderful statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson is actually not hyperbole . This is an accurate assessment of what's going on. [12:42]
statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者; Freeman:n.自由民;享有市民权的人;荣誉市民; hyperbole:n.夸张的语句;夸张法; assessment:n.评定;估价;
Our digital -- our technologies are great gifts, and we, right now, have the great good fortune to be living at a time when digital technology is flourishing, when it is broadening and deepening and becoming more profound all around the world. [12:57]
fortune:n.财富;命运;运气;v.给予财富,偶然发生 broadening:n.扩展;[光]增宽;v.放宽;扩张(broaden的ing形式);adj.加宽的; deepening:n.加深,延深;向下侵蚀;v.使深化;加深(deepen的现在分词); profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的;
So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs, but focusing on that fact misses the point entirely. [13:11]
The point is that then we are freed up to do other things, and what we are going to do, I am very confident, what we're going to do is reduce poverty and drudgery and misery around the world. I'm very confident [13:18]
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; drudgery:n.苦工,苦差事; misery:n.痛苦,悲惨;不幸;苦恼;穷困;
we're going to learn to live more lightly on the planet, and I am extremely confident that what we're going to do with our new digital tools is going to be so profound [13:30]
lightly:adv.轻轻地;轻松地;容易地;不费力地;
and so beneficial that it's going to make a mockery out of everything that came before. [13:39]
beneficial:adj.有益的,有利的;可享利益的;
I'm going to leave the last word to a guy who had a front row seat for digital progress, our old friend Ken Jennings. I'm with him. [13:44]
I'm going to echo his words: "I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords ." (Laughter) [13:51]
echo:vt.反射;重复;vi.随声附和;发出回声;n.回音;效仿; overlords:n.领主,庄主,大王;(overlord的复数)
Thanks very much. (Applause) [13:56]