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AliceBowsLarkin_2015G-_如何应对气候变化_
Over our lifetimes, we've all contributed to climate change. 在我们的一生中, 我们每个人的行为都影响了气候变化。
contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词)
Actions, choices and behaviors will have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions . 我们的日常行为和选择 都会导致温室气体排放的增加。
greenhouse gas:n.温室气体(尤指二氧化碳); emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数)
And I think that that's quite a powerful thought. 我认为这种想法很有道理。
But it does have the potential to make us feel guilty when we think about decisions we might have made around where to travel to, how often and how, about the energy that we choose to use in our homes or in our workplaces , or quite simply the lifestyles that we lead and enjoy. 但它的确有可能让我们感到内疚, 想一想我们做过的关于去哪里 旅行的决定, 旅行的频率以及方式。 关于我们选择在家里或者办公室里 使用什么能源, 或仅仅只是我们所倡导和享受的生活方式。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; guilty:adj.有罪的;内疚的; workplaces:n.[管理]工作场所(workplace的复数); lifestyles:n.生活方式(lifestyle的复数);
But we can also turn that thought on its head, and think that if we've had such a profound but a negative impact on our climate already, then we have an opportunity to influence the amount of future climate change that we will need to adapt to. 但我们也可以从全新的角度来看待这一想法, 也就是说,我们已经对气候产生了 极其深刻且负面的影响, 那么我们就有机会去影响未来的气候变化, 而我们也必须能够适应这种变化。
profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的; negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变; adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
So we have a choice. 所以我们面临一个选择。
We can either choose to start to take climate change seriously, and significantly cut and mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions, and then we will have to adapt to less of the climate change impacts in future. 我们可以选择开始认真对待气候变化, 大幅减少温室气体排放量, 以减少未来气候变化带来的影响。
significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地; mitigate:vt.使缓和,使减轻;vi.减轻,缓和下来; impacts:n.影响; v.有影响,有作用;
Alternatively , we can continue to really ignore the climate change problem. 或者我们也可以继续忽略气候变化问题,
Alternatively:adv.非此即彼;二者择一地;作为一种选择; ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬;
But if we do that, we are also choosing to adapt to very much more powerful climate impacts in future. 但如果这样做,我们同时也就选择了 在未来去适应更强的气候变化。
And not only that . 不仅如此,
only that:只是;要不是;
As people who live in countries with high per capita emissions, we're making that choice on behalf of others as well. 作为生活在高人均排放国家的居民, 我们也在代表其他地区的人民做出选择。
per capita:adj.每人的;人均的; on behalf of:代表;为了;
But the choice that we don't have is a no climate change future. 但我们无法选择的是, 一个没有气候变化的未来。
Over the last two decades, our government negotiators and policymakers have been coming together to discuss climate change, and they've been focused on avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming above pre-industrial levels. 在过去的20年里, 我们的政府谈判代表和政策制定者一起 讨论了气候变化的问题, 他们聚焦在避免高于前工业化水平 2℃的升温。
negotiators:n.谈判代表(negotiator的复数); policymakers:n.决策人;(policymaker的复数) centigrade:adj.摄氏的;[仪]摄氏温度的;百分度的; pre-industrial:adj.工业化以前的;
That's the temperature that's associated with dangerous impacts across a range of different indicators , to humans and to the environment. 这一温度在一系列不同指标上 对人类,对环境, 都有着危险的影响。
associated:adj.有关联的; v.联想; (associate的过去分词和过去式) indicators:n.指示信号;标志;指针;方向灯;(indicator的复数)
So two degrees centigrade constitutes dangerous climate change. 所以这2℃与危险的气候变化紧密相关。
constitutes:v.被算作;组成;构成;(合法或正式地)成立,设立;(constitute的第三人称单数)
But dangerous climate change can be subjective . 但危险的气候变化也可以很主观。
subjective:adj.主观的;个人的;自觉的;
So if we think about an extreme weather event that might happen in some part of the world, and if that happens in a part of the world where there is good infrastructure , 试想一个极端天气事件, 发生在世界的某个地方。 如果这个地方有着良好的基础设施,
extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
where there are people that are well-insured and so on, then that impact can be disruptive . 当地的人们都有着很好的保障等等, 那这影响可能会是破坏性的。
disruptive:adj.破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的;
It can cause upset , it could cause cost. 它可能会产生不必要的麻烦和经济损失,
upset:adj.沮丧; v.打乱; n.苦恼; (意外的)混乱;
It could even cause some deaths. 甚至可能会导致一些人死亡。
But if that exact same weather event happens in a part of the world where there is poor infrastructure, or where people are not well-insured, or they're not having good support networks, then that same climate change impact could be devastating . 但是如果同样的天气事件发生在世界上的某地, 那里的基础设施很糟糕, 或者人民的生命财产没有很好的保障, 或者他们没有很好的社会支持网络, 那同样的气候变化可能会带来毁灭性的影响。
devastating:adj.毁灭性的; v.毁灭; (devastate的现在分词)
It could cause a significant loss of home, but it could also cause significant amounts of death. 它可能会导致大量人流离失所, 也可能会导致大量人员的死亡。
So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions at the left-hand side from fossil fuel and industry, and time from before the Industrial Revolution out towards the present day . 这幅图左侧是由化石燃料和工业生产 产生的二氧化碳排放量, 时间段是从工业革命前 直到现在。
left-hand:adj.左手的;左侧的; fossil fuel:n.化石燃料(如煤或石油); Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; present day:adj.现代的;当今的;现在的;现时的;
And what's immediately striking about this is that emissions have been growing exponentially . 值得注意的是, 排放量在以指数级增长。
exponentially:adv.以指数方式;
If we focus in on a shorter period of time from 1950, we have established in 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, 如果我们把目光聚焦到1950年之后, 我们在1988年成立了 政府间气候变化专业委员会。 1992年在里约热内卢召开了地球峰会,
established:adj.已确立的;著名的;v.建立;创立;设立;(establish的过去分词和过去式) Intergovernmental:adj.政府间的; Panel:n.镶板;仪表盘;钣金;(衣服上的)镶条;v.镶板(用木或玻璃板等镶嵌或装饰); Summit:n.峰会;山顶;顶点;最高点;
then rolling on a few years, in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord , where it established avoiding a two-degree temperature rise in keeping with the science and on the basis of equity . 几年后于2009年签订了哥本哈根协定, 在符合科学和保持公正的基础上 来避免这2℃的升温。
Copenhagen:n.哥本哈根(丹麦首都); Accord:n.协议;协定;一致;和谐;v.一致;给予;相符;协调; in keeping with:符合;与…一致; on the basis of:根据;基于…; equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值;
And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event. 之后在2012年我们召开了里约+20会议。
And all the way through, during all of these meetings and many others as well, emissions have continued to rise. 这一路走来,经过所有这些会议 和各种其他活动, 排放量却依旧持续增长。
And if we focus on our historical emission trend in recent years, and we put that together with our understanding of the direction of travel in our global economy , then we are much more on track for a four-degree centigrade global warming than we are for the two-degree centigrade. 而如果我们聚焦在近几年的排放趋势, 结合我们对于 全球经济走向的理解, 那么我们其实正在迈向 4℃的全球变暖趋势, 而并非2℃。
historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的; trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪; global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖;
Now, let's just pause for a moment and think about this four-degree global average temperature. 现在让我们暂停并 思考一下这个4℃的全球平均升温。
Most of our planet is actually made up of the sea. 地球上大部分地区是海洋。
made up of:由…组成,由…构成;
Now, because the sea has a greater thermal inertia than the land, the average temperatures over land are actually going to be higher than they are over the sea. 因为海洋比陆地有更大的热惯性, 所以陆地上的平均温度 会比海上的平均温度高。
thermal:adj.热的;热量的;保热的;n.上升的热气流; inertia:n.[力]惯性;惰性,迟钝;不活动;
The second thing is that we as human beings don't experience global average temperatures. 还有就是我们作为人类不会体验到 全球的平均温度。
We experience hot days, cold days, rainy days, especially if you live in Manchester like me. 我们会体验到热天,冷天, 雨天,特别是如果你和我一样住在曼彻斯特。
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
So now put yourself in a city center. 想象一下你身处一个城市中心。
Imagine somewhere in the world: 在世界的某个地方:
Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London. 孟买,北京,纽约,伦敦。
It's the hottest day that you've ever experienced. 这是你经历过的最热的一天。
There's sun beating down, there's concrete and glass all around you. 火辣辣的太阳直射下来, 混凝土和玻璃建筑环绕着你。
concrete:n.混凝土;adj.混凝土制的;确实的,具体的;vt.用混凝土覆盖
Now imagine that same day -- but it's six, eight, maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer on that day during that heat wave. 想象在同样的一天—— 但是要比当天的热浪高出 6,8,甚至10-12℃。
That's the kind of thing we're going to experience under a four-degree global average temperature scenario . 这就是我们即将要经历的 全球平均升温4℃的情景。
scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本;
And the problem with these extremes , and not just the temperature extremes , but also the extremes in terms of storms and other climate impacts, is our infrastructure is just not set up to deal with these sorts of events. 这些极端气候带来的问题 不仅仅是极端的温度, 还有极端的风暴以及其他气候影响, 而我们建造的基础设施还并不能承受这些极端事件。
extremes:n.极端不同的感情;极端;极度;极限;(extreme的复数)
So our roads and our rail networks have been designed to last for a long time and withstand only certain amounts of impacts in different parts of the world. 我们的道路和铁路网络 被设计成只在一定程度的影响下 才能经久耐用, 世界各地都是如此。
withstand:vt.抵挡;禁得起;反抗;vi.反抗;
And this is going to be extremely challenged. 而这将面临极度的挑战。
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地;
Our power stations are expected to be cooled by water to a certain temperature to remain effective and resilient . 我们的发电站本来是靠水来冷却到 一个特定的温度,来保持设备的有效性和弹性。
effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象; resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的;
And our buildings are designed to be comfortable within a particular temperature range. 我们的建筑是被设计成在一定的温度范围内 才能使人感到舒适。
And this is all going to be significantly challenged under a four-degree-type scenario. 而这些都将在4℃升温的情景下 面临极大的挑战。
Our infrastructure has not been designed to cope with this. 而我们的基础设施还无法应对这些挑战。
So if we go back, also thinking about four degrees, it's not just the direct impacts, but also some indirect impacts. 如果我们再想想4℃的升温, 这些影响并不是直接的, 还有一些间接影响。
indirect:adj.间接的;迂回的;非直截了当的;
So if we take food security, for example. 比如说食品安全。
Maize and wheat yields in some parts of the world are expected to be up to 40 percent lower under a four-degree scenario, rice up to 30 percent lower. 玉米和小麦的产量 在世界的某些地方 最高将会有40%的下降, 在4℃升温的情景下, 大米的产量最高会有30%的下降。
Maize:adj.黄色的,玉米色的;n.玉米;黄色,玉米色; yields:n.生产量,投资效益(yield的复数形式); v.[经]生产;
This will be absolutely devastating for global food security. 这对全球食品安全绝对是灾难性的。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
So all in all , the kinds of impacts anticipated under this four-degree centigrade scenario are going to be incompatible with global organized living. 总之在升温4℃的情况下 设想出来的种种影响, 都将会和全球有序的生存模式相矛盾。
all in all:总而言之;头等重要的东西; anticipated:adj.预期的; v.预期; (anticipate的过去式和过去分词) incompatible:adj.不相容的;矛盾的;不能同时成立的;n.互不相容的人或事物; organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式)
So back to our trajectories and our graphs of four degrees and two degrees. 回到2℃和4℃的图表中来,
trajectories:n.轨迹;轨道线(trajectory的复数形式);
Is it reasonable still to focus on the two-degree path? 专注于2℃的路径是否还是合理的？
reasonable:adj.合理的,公道的;通情达理的;
There are quite a lot of my colleagues and other scientists who would say that it's now too late to avoid a two-degree warming. 有许多我的同事和其他科学家 也许会说现在已经无法避免2℃升温了。
colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数);
But I would just like to draw on my own research on energy systems, on food systems, aviation and also shipping, just to say that I think there is still a small fighting chance of avoiding this two-degree dangerous climate change. 但根据我自己在 能源系统,食品系统, 航空以及海运方面的研究, 我认为在避免这危险的2℃气候变化上 我们仍有很小的胜算。
aviation:n.航空;飞行术;飞机制造业;
But we really need to get to grips with the numbers to work out how to do it. 但我们必须要掌握确切的数据 来谋划对策。
grips:vbl.抓爪;
So if you focus in on this trajectory and these graphs, the yellow circle there highlights that the departure from the red four-degree pathway to the two-degree green pathway is immediate. 所以如果你仔细看图表中的这些轨迹, 这个黄色的圈标注出了 红色的4℃路径 和绿色2℃路径的分叉点已经迫在眉睫。
trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道; highlights:n.拔萃,集锦; v.使突出(highlight的三单形式); departure:n.离开;出发;违背; pathway:n.路,道;途径,路径;
And that's because of cumulative emissions, or the carbon budget . 这是基于积累排放量, 或是碳预算的结果。
cumulative:adj.累积的; carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的; budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的;
So in other words, because of the lights and the projectors that are on in this room right now, the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere as a result of that electricity consumption lasts a very long time. 也就是说,由于这个房间的 灯光和投影仪的运作, 二氧化碳被排放到大气中, 这种由消耗电能而产生的碳排放 会在大气中停留很长一段时间。
projectors:n.放映机(projector复数);幻灯机投影机; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格; as a result:结果; electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪; consumption:n.消费;消耗;肺痨;
Some of it will be in our atmosphere for a century, maybe much longer. 有些甚至会在大气中停留一个世纪或是更长。
It will accumulate , and greenhouse gases tend to be cumulative. 它会积累,而温室气体有积累性。
accumulate:vi.累积;积聚;vt.积攒;
And that tells us something about these trajectories. 这就解释了这些轨迹的走向。
First of all , it tells us that it's the area under these curves that matter, not where we reach at a particular date in future. 首先,这些曲线之下的区域才是关键, 而不是在未来的某一天达到某个值。
First of all:adv.首先; curves:n.曲线; v.(使)沿曲线运动; (curve的第三人称单数和复数)
And that's important, because it doesn't matter if we come up with some amazing whiz-bang technology to sort out our energy problem on the last day of 2049, just in the nick of time to sort things out. 这很重要,因为这并不取决于 我们能否在2049年的最后一天 开发出什么高端的科技, 在千钧一发之际解决了能源问题。
come up with:提出;想出;赶上; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; in the nick of time:及时;恰好;
Because in the meantime , emissions will have accumulated . 因为在这个过程中碳排放依然会不断累积。
in the meantime:在此期间;于此际; accumulated:v.积累;积聚;(数量)逐渐增加;(accumulate的过去式和过去分词)
So if we continue on this red, four-degree centigrade scenario pathway, the longer we continue on it, that will need to be made up for in later years to keep the same carbon budget, to keep the same area under the curve, which means that that trajectory, the red one there, becomes steeper . 所以如果我们继续沿着这条4℃红线, 在上面继续的时间越久, 之后就需要弥补的就越多。 来保持相同的碳预算,使曲线下方的区域面积不变。 也就是说这条红色的轨迹会变得更加陡峭。
steeper:n.浸润器;浸泡用的桶子;adj.陡峭的,险峻的;
So in other words, if we don't reduce emissions in the short to medium term, then we'll have to make more significant year-on-year emission reductions . 也就是说,如果我们不减少中短期的排放量, 那就必须在未来更为显着地减少年同比排放量。
medium:n.(传播信息的)媒介;手段;工具;方法;adj.中等的;中号的; year-on-year:adj.与上年同期数字相比的; reductions:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图;(reduction的复数)
We also know that we have to decarbonize our energy system. 我们还必须给我们的能源系统脱碳。
decarbonize:vt.除去碳素;脱去…的碳(等于decarburize);
But if we don't start to cut emissions in the short to medium term, then we will have to do that even sooner. 但如果我们不减少中短期的排放, 那我们就必须更迅速地行动起来。
So this poses really big challenges for us. 这对我们来说是一个很大的挑战。
poses:姿势;
The other thing it does is tells us something about energy policy. 这个图标还告诉了我们关于能源政策的信息。
If you live in a part of the world where per capita emissions are already high, it points us towards reducing energy demand. 如果你生活在一个人均排放量已经很高的地区, 那我们就需要减少对能源的需求。
And that's because with all the will in the world, the large-scale engineering infrastructure that we need to roll out rapidly to decarbonize the supply side of our energy system is just simply not going to happen in time. 而因为无论我们怎么努力, 那些需要我们及时推出 来减少能源供应方碳排放的 大型基础设施工程 都无法及时完成。
large-scale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的; engineering:n.工程;工程学;v.密谋策划;设计制造;改变…的基因;(engineer的现在分词)
So it doesn't matter whether we choose nuclear power or carbon capture and storage, upscale our biofuel production, or go for a much bigger roll-out of wind turbines and wave turbines. 所以无论我们是选择核能 还是碳捕获和储存, 增加生物燃料的产能, 或是提高风力发电和潮汐发电机组的转速。
nuclear power:na.核大国; capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获 upscale:adj.迎合高层次消费者的;质优价高的;vt.升高一级; biofuel:n.生物燃料; roll-out:n.初次公开展出;[计]转出; turbines:n.[动力]涡轮;[动力]涡轮机(turbine的复数);[动力]汽轮机;
All of that will take time. 所有这一切都需要时间。
So because it's the area under the curve that matters, we need to focus on energy efficiency , but also on energy conservation -- in other words, using less energy. 而因为曲线下方的区域才是关键, 我们就需要专注在能源利用效率上, 还有节约能源——也就是少消耗能源。
efficiency:n.效率;效能;功效; conservation:n.保存,保持;保护;
And if we do that, that also means that as we continue to roll out the supply-side technology, we will have less of a job to do if we've actually managed to reduce our energy consumption, because we will then need less infrastructure on the supply side. 如果我们这么做,那也就意味着 随着能源供应科技的发展, 如果我们能确实减少能源消耗, 那我们的负担就会越来越轻, 因为我们将不再需要那么多能源来供应基础设施。
Another issue that we really need to grapple with is the issue of well-being and equity. 另一个需要我们解决的问题是 福祉,以及公平。
issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行; grapple:v.扭打;搏斗;努力设法解决;n.格斗;紧握;抓机; well-being:n.幸福;康乐;
There are many parts of the world where the standard of living needs to rise. 世界上很多地区的生活水平仍有待提高。
standard of living:n.生活水平;
Bbut with energy systems currently reliant on fossil fuel, as those economies grow so will emissions. 而现在的能源系统依赖于化石燃料, 随着这些地区经济的增长,排放量也会增长。
currently:adv.当前;一般地; reliant:adj.依赖的;可靠的;信赖的; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
And now, if we're all constrained by the same amount of carbon budget, that means that if some parts of the world's emissions are needing to rise, then other parts of the world's emissions need to reduce. 而现在如果我们都受限于等量的碳预算, 那就意味着要提高部分地区的排放量, 同时减少其他地区的排放量。
constrained:adj.不自然的; v.约束; (constrain的过去分词和过去式)
So that poses very significant challenges for wealthy nations. 这对于发达国家来说一个很大的挑战,
Because according to our research, if you're in a country where per capita emissions are really high -- so North America , Europe, Australia -- emissions reductions of the order of 10 percent per year, 因为根据我们的研究, 如果你在一个人均排放量很高的国家, 比如北美,欧洲,澳大利亚—— 每年要实现10%的减排量,
according to:根据,据说; North America:n.北美洲;
and starting immediately, will be required for a good chance of avoiding the two-degree target. 而且需要立即执行,才能很好地 避免2℃的升温。
Let me just put that into context . 把这放在一定的背景下看看。
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉;
The economist Nicholas Stern said that emission reductions of more than one percent per year had only ever been associated with economic recession or upheaval . 曾经说过排放量的减少超过每年1%, 通常就意味着经济衰退和动荡时期的到来。
Stern:n.船尾;末端;adj.严厉的;坚定的; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回; upheaval:n.剧变;隆起;举起;
So this poses huge challenges for the issue of economic growth, because if we have our high carbon infrastructure in place, it means that if our economies grow, then so do our emissions. 所以,这对经济发展的确是一个巨大的挑战, 因为如果我们使用高排放的基础设施, 那就意味着我们的经济会增长, 而排放量也会增长。
So I'd just like to take a quote from a paper by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011 where we said that to avoid the two-degree framing of dangerous climate change, 这里我想引用一段 我和Kevin Anderson早在2011论文里的话, 当时我们提出要避免危险的2℃气候变化,
quote:v.引用;报价;举例说明;开价;为(企业的股份)上市;n.引用; framing:v.给…做框;作伪证陷害;制订;拟订;n.框架;结构;骨骼;(frame的现在分词)
economic growth needs to be exchanged at least temporarily for a period of planned austerity in wealthy nations. 至少暂时要以牺牲经济增长为代价, 发达国家要准备好一段时间的经济紧缩。
temporarily:adv.临时地,临时; austerity:n.紧缩;朴素;苦行;严厉;
This is a really difficult message to take, because what it suggests is that we really need to do things differently. 人们很难接受这种说法。 因为这预示着我们要改变以往的做法。
This is not about just incremental change. 不仅仅是渐进式的变革,
incremental:adj.增加的,增值的;
This is about doing things differently, about whole system change, and sometimes it's about doing less things. 而是要改变整个系统, 有时候需要我们减缓发展的脚步。
And this applies to all of us, whatever sphere of influence we have. 这可以涉及到我们所有人, 不论我们的个人行为能产生多大的影响。
applies:v.适用;申请;运用;专心;(apply的第三人称单数)
So it could be from writing to our local politician to talking to our boss at work or being the boss at work, or talking with our friends and family, or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles. 可以从给地方政客写信开始, 到给老板谏言或是自己对员工的管理。 或是和家人朋友商量,或是单纯改变自己的生活方式。
politician:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;
Because we really need to make significant change. 因为我们必须要做出重大的改变。
At the moment, we're choosing a four-degree scenario. 目前,我们选择了4℃升温的发展趋势。
If we really want to avoid the two-degree scenario, there really is no time like the present to act. 但如果我们真的想避免2℃升温的话, 行动已经刻不容缓了。
Thank you. 谢谢大家。
(Applause) （鼓掌）
Bruno Giussani: Alice, basically what you're saying, the talk is, unless wealthy nations start cutting 10 percent per year the emissions now, this year, not in 2020 or '25, we are going to go straight to the four-plus-degree scenario. Bruno Giussani（BG）:Alice, 总结一下你刚才说的, 从现在开始,今年,而不是2020或2025, 不然我们将会直接进入4℃升温的情况。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
I am wondering what's your take on the cut by 70 percent for 2070. 你对到2070年减排70%是怎么看的？
Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees. Alice Bows-Larkin（AB）:目前来看2℃升温是不可避免的了。
nowhere:v.无处; n.无处; adj.不存在的;
One of the things that often -- when there are these modeling studies that look at what we need to do, is they tend to hugely overestimate how quickly other countries in the world can start to reduce emissions. 很多时候—— 当这些模型研究指出我们该怎么做的时候, 它们都倾向于过于夸大其他国家 减排的速度,
overestimate:v.高估;n.过高的评估;
So they make kind of heroic assumptions about that. 所以就会有一些大胆的假设。
heroic:adj.英雄的;英勇的;记叙英雄及其事迹的;夸张的;n.史诗;英勇行为; assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数)
The more we do that, because it's the cumulative emissions, the short-term stuff that really matters. 而我们越是这样,由于这是累积排放, 短期的行为的影响就越不容忽视。
short-term:adj.短期的; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
So it does make a huge difference. 它的确会有显着的效果。
If a big country like China, for example, continues to grow even for just a few extra years, that will make a big difference to when we need to decarbonize. 比如说像中国这样的大国, 国家的发展就算只多那么几年, 也会在脱碳的时候产生巨大的影响。
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外:
So I don't think we can even say when it will be, because it all depends on what we have to do in the short term. 所以我们并不知道这种变化到底何时会出现, 因为这都取决于我们短期内的行为。
But I think we've just got huge scope , and we don't pull those levers that allow us to reduce the energy demand, which is a shame. 但我感到很遗憾,我们有巨大的改善空间, 但却没有采取行动来减少对能源的需求。
scope:n.能力; v.仔细看; levers:n.杠杆;手段(lever的复数);v.用杠杆撬动(lever的第三人称单数);
BG: Alice, thank you for coming to TED and sharing this data. BG:Alice,谢谢你来到TED 分享这些数据。
ABL: Thank you. （鼓掌）
(Applause)