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AlanSmith_2016X-_为什么你会爱上统计？_
Back in 2003, the UK government carried out a survey . 在2003年, 英国政府进行了一项调查。
survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览;vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰;vi.测量土地;
And it was a survey that measured levels of numeracy in the population. 主要是调查国民的算数能力。
measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式) numeracy:n.计算能力,识数;
And they were shocked to find out that for every 100 working age adults in the country, 47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills. 他们惊讶地发现, 该国的成年就業者当中, 平均100个里面有47个缺乏等级一的算数能力。
Now, Level 1 numeracy skills — that's low-end GCSE score. 等级一算数能力,相当于低阶的国中数学能力。
low-end:adj.低档的;廉价的;生产低档产品的;
It's the ability to deal with fractions , percentages and decimals . 这个等级代表你会计算分数、百分比、小数点。
fractions:n.[数]分数;小部分,片段(fraction的复数); percentages:n.[数]百分率,百分比;命中率(percentage的复数); decimals:n.[数]小数(decimal的复数形式);位数;
So this figure prompted a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall . 这个数据让英国政府紧张地手心冒汗。
prompted:v.促使;导致;提示;给(演员)提词;(prompt的过去分词和过去式) Whitehall:n.白厅(英国);怀特霍尔(伦敦的一条街名);英国政府;
Policies were changed, investments were made, and then they ran the survey again in 2011. 不但改变了政策、 也编订了预算, 然后,在2011年他们再调查一遍。
Policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数)
So can you guess what happened to this number? 各位猜猜,数字变到多少？
It went up to 49. 上升到49。
(Laughter) （笑声）
And in fact, when I reported this figure in the FT, one of our readers joked and said, "This figure is only shocking to 51 percent of the population." 事实上,当我把这数据刊登在金融时报后, 我们其中一位读者开玩笑地说, 「这个数据只吓到 51% 的人。」
(Laughter) （笑声）
But I preferred , actually, the reaction of a schoolchild when I presented at a school this information, who raised their hand and said, "How do we know that the person who made that number isn't one of the 49 percent either?" 但我实际上更喜欢一个小学生的反应, 当我在他的学校演讲提到这件事情时, 他举手问说, 「我们如何知道,算出这个数据的人 会不会也是在 49% 里面的人？」
preferred:v.较喜欢;喜欢…多于…;(prefer的过去式和过去分词) reaction:n.反应,感应;反动,复古;反作用; schoolchild:n.学童;
(Laughter) （笑声）
So clearly, there's a numeracy issue , because these are important skills for life, and a lot of the changes that we want to introduce in this century involve us becoming more comfortable with numbers. 所以很明显的,算术能力不足问题相当严重, 因为在我们人生中,这些都是很重要的技能, 而且,我们想要介绍的这个世纪的许多变化 需要我们能够更自在地面对数字。
issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行; involve:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;
Now, it's not just an English problem. 这不仅是英国的问题。
OECD this year released some figures looking at numeracy in young people, and leading the way, the USA — nearly 40 percent of young people in the US have low numeracy. OECD（经济合作与发展组织）今年也发布了一些年轻人的算数能力数据, 美国第一名, 他们将近有40%的年轻人算数能力有问题。
released:v.释放;使免除;已发布;(release的过去分词和过去式)
Now, England is there too, but there are seven OECD countries with figures above 20 percent. 英国也差不多, 总共有七个OECD的会员国,他们的数据都高于 20% 。
That is a problem, because it doesn't have to be that way. 这问题很严重,因为不该如此。
If you look at the far end of this graph, you can see the Netherlands and Korea are in single figures. 如果你仔细看这张图表的末端, 你可以看到荷兰跟韩国的数据只有个位数。
So there's definitely a numeracy problem that we want to address. 所以我们必须解决这个有关数学程度的问题。
definitely:adv.清楚地,当然;明确地,肯定地;
Now, as useful as studies like these are, 然而,就算这些报告很有用,
I think we risk herding people inadvertently into one of two categories; that there are two kinds of people: those people that are comfortable with numbers, that can do numbers, and the people who can't. 我认为我们把人类分成这两类是有风险的; 就只是这两类: 一类是能自在地面对数字的人,会算数的人, 另一类是不会算数的人。
herding:v.(使)向…移动;牧放(牲畜、兽群);(herd的现在分词) inadvertently:adj.非故意地,无心地;
And what I'm trying to talk about here today is to say that I believe that is a false dichotomy . 而我今天要谈的是, 我认为这样的两分法是错误的。
dichotomy:n.二分法;两分;分裂;双歧分枝;
It's not an immutable pairing. 这两类人不会永远都如此。
immutable:adj.不变的;不可变的;不能变的;
I think you don't have to have tremendously high levels of numeracy to be inspired by numbers, and that should be the starting point to the journey ahead. 我认为你不需要懂高阶数学, 也能被数字所启发, 而且,这应该是未来旅程的起点。
tremendously:adv.非常地;可怕地;惊人地; inspired:adj.受到启发的; v.鼓舞; (inspire的过去分词和过去式) starting point:n.出发点;基础; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行;
And one of the ways in which we can begin that journey, for me, is looking at statistics . 开启这趟旅程的其中一个方法,对我而言, 就是观察统计数据。
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
Now, I am the first to acknowledge that statistics has got somewhat of an image problem. 我应该是第一个说统计比较像是个图像问题的人。
somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
(Laughter) （笑声）
It's the part of mathematics that even mathematicians don't particularly like, because whereas the rest of maths is all about precision and certainty , statistics is almost the reverse of that. 它是数学的一部分, 但是数学家并不特别喜欢统计, 因为其它的数学讲究的是精准性及确定性, 而统计几乎是相反的。
mathematics:n.数学;数学运算; mathematicians:n.[数]数学家(mathematician的复数形式); particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; maths:数学(课) precision:n.精度,[数]精密度;精确;adj.精密的,精确的; certainty:n.必然;确实;确实的事情; reverse:n.反面; v.颠倒; adj.相反的;
But actually, I was a late convert to the world of statistics myself. 但实际上,我自己是比较晚爱上统计的。
convert:v.转换; n.改变宗教(或信仰、观点)的人;
If you'd asked my undergraduate professors what two subjects would I be least likely to excel in after university, they'd have told you statistics and computer programming, and yet here I am, about to show you some statistical graphics that I programmed. 如果你问我的大学教授 我毕業后两个最不可能会成为我日后强项的科目, 他们会告诉你,是统计及电脑编程, 但我今天来这边,是要向各位展示一些我编程的统计资料图表。
undergraduate:n.本科生; excel:v.超过;擅长; statistical:adj.统计的;统计学的; graphics:n.[测]制图学;制图法;图表算法;
So what inspired that change in me? 那到底是什么改变了我？
What made me think that statistics was actually an interesting thing? 是什么事让我觉得统计真的很有趣？
It's really because statistics are about us. 那是因为统计跟我们有关。
If you look at the etymology of the word statistics, it's the science of dealing with data about the state or the community that we live in. 如果你有去查「统计」这个词的词源意义, 它是一门有关 我们生活周遭的数据科学。
etymology:n.语源,[语]语源学; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
So statistics are about us as a group, not us as individuals . 所以统计是有关我们群体, 而不是我们个人。
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
And I think as social animals, we share this fascination about how we as individuals relate to our groups,to our peers . 我认为身为群居动物的我们, 我们每个人都很想知道,我们个人与团体、同侪之间有什么关联性。
fascination:n.魅力;魔力;入迷; peers:n.平辈,同事(peer的复数);v.凝视;比得上(peer的三单形式);
And statistics in this way are at their most powerful when they surprise us. 而这也是统计在这些方面最有力, 那么另人惊讶。
And there's been some really wonderful surveys carried out recently by Ipsos MORI in the last few years. 最近有一些很棒的调查, 是由 Ipsos MORI（英国的市场调查公司）近几年所进行的调查。
surveys:n.调查(survey的复数); recently:adv.最近;新近;
They did a survey of over 1,000 adults in the UK, and said, for every 100 people in England and Wales, how many of them are Muslim? 他们对一千多位英国民众进行了访问, 问他们说,「你认为住在英格兰及威尔斯的 每一百个人中,平均有多少人是穆斯林（回教徒）？」
Now the average answer from this survey, which was supposed to be representative of the total population, was 24. 在这次的调查中, 这些可以代表大多数人的受访民众,他们认为应该有 24% 。
supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) representative:n.代表; adj.典型的;
That's what people thought. 这是人们的想法。
British people think 24 out of every 100 people in the country are Muslim. 英国人认为每一百个人当中有 24 个是穆斯林。
Now, official figures reveal that figure to be about five. 但官方的统计数字大约只有 5 。
official:adj.官方的;正式的;公务的;n.官员;公务员;高级职员; reveal:v.显示;透露;揭露;泄露;n.揭露;暴露;门侧,窗侧;
So there's this big variation between what we think, our perception , and the reality as given by statistics. 所以我们认为的观念与 实际上的统计有着很大的差距。
variation:n.变异;变体;变奏;变种; perception:n.感知;知觉;看法;洞察力;
And I think that's interesting. 所以我认为这很有趣,
What could possibly be causing that misperception ? 到底是什么原因造成这样的认知差距？
misperception:n.错误知觉;
And I was so thrilled with this study, 我对这样的研究相当感兴趣。
thrilled:adj.非常兴奋; v.使非常兴奋; (thrill的过去分词和过去式)
I started to take questions out in presentations . I was referring to it. 我在每次的演讲中,都会提出类似的相关问题。
presentations:n.展示;自我介绍;业务陈述(presentation的复数形式); referring:v.引用;提到;将…归因于…;把…提交;(refer的现在分词)
Now, I did a presentation at St. Paul's School for Girls in Hammersmith , and I had an audience rather like this, except it was comprised entirely of sixth-form girls. 之前,我到阿姆斯特丹的圣保罗学校, 向学校的女同学做了一次演讲, 听众人数和在座的差不多, 除了他们都是六年级的女学生。
Hammersmith:n.锻匠; comprised:v.包含(comprise的过去分词);由…组成;
And I said, "Girls, how many teenage girls do you think the British public think get pregnant every year?" 我问她们,「女孩子们, 你们猜一下,英国大众认为 英国的未成年女生每年怀孕的人数有多少？」
pregnant:adj.怀孕的;富有意义的;
And the girls were apoplectic when I said the British public think that 15 out of every 100 teenage girls get pregnant in the year. 那些女孩子们听到我的回答,几乎要中风了, 我说,「英国大众认为你们平均每年 100 个人里面有 15 个人会怀孕。」
apoplectic:adj.中风的;易怒的;n.中风患者;
And they had every right to be angry, because in fact, I'd have to have closer to 200 dots before I could color one in, in terms of what the official figures tell us. 她们的确有权力表达她们的愤怒, 因为事实上,根据官方的数据, 我必须有将近200个圆点 [官方数据:每一百人中有0.6人]才能在其中一个上色。
And rather like numeracy, this is not just an English problem. 算术能力不是只有英国才有的问题。
Ipsos MORI expanded the survey in recent years to go across the world. MORI市场调查公司,最近这几年,也到全世界进行其它调查。
expanded:adj.扩充的;展开的;vt.扩大(expand的过去式);
And so, they asked Saudi Arabians, for every 100 adults in your country, how many of them are overweight or obese ? 他们去问沙乌地阿拉伯人: 在你们国家的成年人当中, 平均每100人有多少人是体重过重或肥胖的？
Saudi:adj.沙乌地阿拉伯(人或语)的;n.沙乌地阿拉伯人; overweight:adj.超重的;过重的;vt.使负担过重;n.超重; obese:adj.肥胖的,过胖的;
And the average answer from the Saudis was just over a quarter. 那些沙乌地阿拉伯人回答:平均应该比四分之一多一点,
That's what they thought. 这是他们自己认为的数字,
Just over a quarter of adults are overweight or obese. 只有 28% 的人是有体重过重或肥胖的问题。
The official figures show, actually, it's nearer to three-quarters . 实际上,官方数据是将近四分之三,
three-quarters:adj.四分之三的;n.四分之三;
(Laughter) （笑声）
So again, a big variation. 所以你看,差距很大。
And I love this one: they asked in Japan, they asked the Japanese, for every 100 Japanese people, how many of them live in rural areas? 我喜欢这一个,他们问日本人说: 「每100个日本人中, 有多少人住在农村地区？」
rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的;
The average was about a 50-50 split , just over halfway. 他们说大概 50-50 ,差不多刚过半。
split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
They thought 56 out of every 100 Japanese people lived in rural areas. 他们认为每 100 个人中,有 56 个人住在农村地区。
The official figure is seven. 但官方数据只有 7 。
So extraordinary variations , and surprising to some, but not surprising to people who have read the work of Daniel Kahneman, for example, the Nobel-winning economist. 如此大的差距,让有些人很惊讶, 但有些人看到这个数据时并会不感到惊讶, 像是,诺贝尔奖经济得主,丹尼尔·卡尼曼。
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; variations:n.变奏曲,变更;[生物]变种(variation的复数形式);
He and his colleague , Amos Tversky, spent years researching this disjoint between what people perceive and the reality, the fact that people are actually pretty poor intuitive statisticians . 他和他的同事,阿姆斯·特尔斯基, 花了好几年的时间研究人们的主观与实际上的差距, 他们发现,人们在对统计方面的直觉度相当薄弱。
colleague:n.同事,同僚; disjoint:vt.解体;使脱臼;vi.脱臼;解体; perceive:v.注意到;意识到;将…理解为;认为; intuitive:adj.直觉的;凭直觉获知的; statisticians:n.统计学家,统计员;
And there are many reasons for this. 这有很多原因。
Individual experiences, certainly, can influence our perceptions , but so, too, can things like the media reporting things by exception , rather than what's normal. 个人经历,肯定会影响我们的观念, 同时,媒体对于例外事件的报导,而不是平常的事, 也会影响我们的观念。
influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变; perceptions:n.认知;观念(perception的复数);理解; media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; exception:n.例外;异议;
Kahneman had a nice way of referring to that. 关于这一点,卡尼曼有一个很好的比喻。
He said, "We can be blind to the obvious " — so we've got the numbers wrong — "but we can be blind to our blindness about it." 他说,「我们经常无视于明显的事情—— 所以,我们都猜错了数字—— 但我们若对我们的无知也一无所知,那就真的太瞎了。」
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的;
And that has enormous repercussions for decision making. 而且这对你做决定,会有很大的影响。
enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的; repercussions:n.反响,影响(repercussion的复数形式);
So at the statistics office while this was all going on, 所以,我在统计办公室面对这样的事情时,
I thought this was really interesting. 我心想,这真的很有趣。
I said, this is clearly a global problem, but maybe geography is the issue here. 我是说,这是个全球性的问题, 但也许只是因为地理性的问题。
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
These were questions that were all about, how well do you know your country? 这些问题是不是与你对国家的认知有关？
So in this case, it's how well do you know 64 million people? 像是测验你对6400万人口的认识？
Not very well, it turns out. I can't do that. 很难,其实,我也办不到。
So I had an idea, which was to think about this same sort of approach but to think about it in a very local sense. 所以,我想到了一个办法, 跟这些问题的问法有点像, 但会要你去思考比较当地的问题。
approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理;
Is this a local? 会不会当地的问题就比较好回答？
If we reframe the questions and say, how well do you know your local area, would your answers be any more accurate ? 如果我们把问题改成,比如说, 你对当地的认识有多深, 你会不会回答地比较精准？
reframe:v.再构造,再组织;重新制订;给…装上新框架; accurate:adj.精确的;
So I devised a quiz : 所以,我设计了这样的测试:
devised:v.设计(devise的过去式和过去分词);计划;发明; quiz:n.小测验;知识竞赛;v.盘问;查问;询问;
How well do you know your area? 你对你所在的区域认识有多深？
It's a simple Web app. 这是一个很简单的网路 App 应用程式。
You put in a post code and then it will ask you questions based on census data for your local area. 你只要输入邮递区号, 然后程式就会问你一些 当地资料调查出来的问题。
census:vt.实施统计调查;n.人口普查,人口调查;
And I was very conscious in designing this. 我很小心地设计这个应用程式。
conscious:adj.意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的;
I wanted to make it open to the widest possible range of people, not just the 49 percent who can get the numbers. 我希望对吸引绝大部分人, 而不是只有 49% 的人会回答而已。
I wanted everyone to engage with it. 我希望每个人都能参与回答。
engage:v.吸引,占用;使参加;雇佣;使订婚;预定;
So for the design of the quiz, 所以,为了设计这个测试,
I was inspired by the isotypes of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and '30s. 我被奥图·纽拉特 在1920~1930年所用的图像符号所启发。
Otto:n.玫瑰油;
Now, these are methods for representing numbers using repeating icons. 他的方法是利用重复的图像 代表不同的数字。
representing:v.代表;维护…的利益;等于;相当于;(represent的现在分词)
And the numbers are there, but they sit in the background. 数字就隐藏在图像的背后,
So it's a great way of representing quantity without resorting to using terms like "percentage," 所以用这样的方式表达数量,是一个很好的方式, 不须要用「百分比」、
quantity:n.量;数量;大量;数额; resorting:v.求助,诉诸;常去;(resort的现在分词)
'"fractions" and " ratios ." 「分数」、「比例」来表示。
ratios:n.比率(ratio的复数); v.以比率表示;
So here's the quiz. 这里是这个测试,
The layout of the quiz is, you have your repeating icons on the left-hand side there, and a map showing you the area we're asking you questions about on the right-hand side. 测试展现的方式是这样的: 你的左边会有一些重复的图像, 题目中地区的地图 显示在你的右手边。
layout:n.布局;规划;设计;版面设计; left-hand:adj.左手的;左侧的; right-hand:adj.得力的;右手的,用右手的;
There are seven questions. 一共有七个问题。
Each question, there's a possible answer between zero and a hundred, and at the end of the quiz, you get an overall score between zero and a hundred. 每一个问题的答案是零到100 回答完题目后, 你会得到一个零到100的分数。
overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
And so because this is TEDxExeter, 因为我们这一场在埃克塞特举办的 TEDx演讲,
I thought we would have a quick look at the quiz for the first few questions of Exeter. 我想,我们可以很快的看一下 有关埃克塞特的一些问题。
And so the first question is: 第一题:
For every 100 people, how many are aged under 16? 每100人中,有多少人是未满16岁的？
Now, I don't know Exeter very well at all, so I had a guess at this, but it gives you an idea of how this quiz works. 我对埃克塞特也不是很了解,所以我也只能用猜的, 但你可以透过这个考试来了解。
You drag the slider to highlight your icons, and then just click " Submit " to answer, and we animate away the difference between your answer and reality. 你可以拖曳这个滑标来标示图像, 然后点选「提交」传送答案, 我们就会将你的答案与实际的差距用动画方式表示出来。
drag:v.拖曳;生拉硬拽;拖动;n.拖累;令人厌烦的人;累赘;绊脚石; slider:n.滑动器;滑雪者;会滚动之物; highlight:vt.突出;强调;使显著;加亮;n.最精彩的部分;最重要的事情;加亮区; Submit:vt.使服从;主张;呈递;vi.提交;服从; animate:vt.使有生气;使活泼;鼓舞;推动;adj.有生命的;
And it turns out, I was a pretty terrible guess: five. 结果,我猜的答案（24）差很多,答案是5。
How about the next question? 下一问题呢？
This is asking about what the average age is, so the age at which half the population are younger and half the population are older. 这一题问平均年龄是多少, 哪一半的人口较年轻, 另一半较老。
And I thought 35 — that sounds middle-aged to me. 我猜是35岁,因为我觉得那是中年人的年纪。
middle-aged:adj.中年的;具有中年人特点的;适合于中年人的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Actually, in Exeter, it's incredibly young, and I had underestimated the impact of the university in this area. 实际上,埃克塞特的人口相当年轻（20）, 我低估了这个区域里的大学的影响。
incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; underestimated:v.低估;对…估计不足;轻视(underestimate的过去分词和过去式) impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
The questions get harder as you go through. 接下来的题目越来越难。
So this one's now asking about homeownership : 这一题是关于拥有房产的人口比例:
homeownership:n.私房屋主;自己拥有住房者(homeowner的变形);
For every 100 households , how many are owned with a mortgage or loan? 每100人中,有多少人有设定或背贷款？
households:n.家庭;拆迁户;家户(household的复数); mortgage:vt.抵押;n.抵押;房屋抵押贷款;
And I hedged my bets here, because I didn't want to be more than 50 out on the answer. 保险起见,我猜高一点, 因为我不想一半的答案都是错的。
hedged:vt.用树篱笆围住; vi.用树篱围住; n.树篱; bets:v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿(bet的第三人称单数)
(Laughter) （笑声）[实际:25,你猜:50]
And actually, these get harder, these questions, because when you're in an area, when you're in a community, things like age — there are clues to whether a population is old or young. 实际上,这些题目越来越难, 因为如果你是在地的,你身处当地的社区, 像年龄这种问题...人口的老、少多少还有点线索可寻,
clues:n.(调查,研究等的)线索;迹象;(故事的)关键情节;(clue的复数)
Just by looking around the area, you can see it. 只要稍微观察一下你的生活周遭即可。
Something like homeownership is much more difficult to see, so we revert to our own heuristics , our own biases about how many people we think own their own homes. 但像是有多少人拥有房产,这就很难看得出来, 所以我们会采用我们个人的「启发法」, 也就是我们对「有多少人拥有房产」这件事情上的个人偏见。
revert:vi.回复;重提;返祖遗传;归还;vt.使回复原状;n.恢复原状者; heuristics:n.启发法;启发式教学法; biases:n.偏差,偏见(bias的复数形式);v.偏见(bias的三单形式);
Now the truth is, when we published this quiz, the census data that it's based on was already a few years old. 事实上,当我们公布这些问题后, 调查的结果是基于几年前的资料。
We've had online applications that allow you to put in a post code and get statistics back for years. 我们的线上应用程式让你可以在输入邮递区号后, 取得数年之前的统计资料。
So in some senses, this was all a little bit old and not necessarily new. 所以在某些方面, 有些资料已经有点老旧、还没有更新。
necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地;
But I was interested to see what reaction we might get by gamifying the data in the way that we have, by using animation and playing on the fact that people have their own preconceptions . 但我当时比较有兴趣的是,如果把这些问题变得比较游戏化, 大家会有什么样的反应, 藉由动画, 和娱乐方式来看看大家对自己偏见的反应。
in the way:妨碍;挡道; animation:n.活泼,生气;激励;卡通片绘制; preconceptions:n.偏见(preconception的复数);先入之见;先前概念;
It turns out, the reaction was, um ... 结果,反应...相当...嗯...
was more than I could have hoped for. 比我想像的还热烈。
It was a long-held ambition of mine to bring down a statistics website due to public demand. 长久以来的我的一个野心就是,因应大众的要求,设立一个统计网站。
ambition:n.追求的目标;野心;志向;抱负; bring down:降低;打倒,打死;击落;
(Laughter)
This URL contains the words "statistics," "gov" and "UK," 这个连结包括了「统计」、「政府」、「英国」这些字眼,
which are three of people's least favorite words in a URL. 它在连结上有三个字是人们最不喜欢的。
And the amazing thing about this was that the website came down at quarter to 10 at night, because people were actually engaging with this data of their own free will , using their own personal time. 令人惊讶的是,网站在当天晚上9点50分上架后, 因为这个时段,人们比较会想要 利用自己的时间, 自在地参与这项资料的问答。
engaging:adj.有趣的; v.吸引住(注意力、兴趣); (engage的现在分词) free will:n.自由意志; personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词;
I was very interested to see that we got something like a quarter of a million people playing the quiz within the space of 48 hours of launching it. 我很惊讶, 差不多有将近25万人 在网站发布后的48小时内,玩了这些问题的游戏。
launching:n.发射;开办;起飞;v.开始从事,发起,发动;(launch的现在分词)
And it sparked an enormous discussion online, on social media, which was largely dominated by people having fun with their misconceptions , which is something that I couldn't have hoped for any better, in some respects. 它在网路、社群媒体上引起了热烈的讨论, 那些讨论的人大多数 对自己的错觉感到相当惊喜, 这个结果在某些方面, 远远超出我的意料之外。
sparked:v.点燃,发动(spark的过去式,过去分词);鼓舞; largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; dominated:v.支配;控制;左右;影响;(dominate的过去式和过去分词) misconceptions:n.迷思概念;错误的想法;
I also liked the fact that people started sending it to politicians . 我也因为有人开始把这个游戏寄给政治人物觉得很开心。
politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数)
How well do you know the area you claim to represent? 让这些民意代表考考他们对自己所代表的区域是否熟悉？
claim:v.要求;声称;需要;认领;n.要求;声称;索赔;断言;值得;
(Laughter) （笑声）
And then just to finish, going back to the two kinds of people, 做为总结, 回到之前把人分成两种的问题上,
I thought it would be really interesting to see how people who are good with numbers would do on this quiz. 我在想,如果可以请那些对数字很懂的人 来回答这些题目,应该会很有趣。
The national statistician of England and Wales, John Pullinger, you would expect he would be pretty good. 英格兰威尔斯国家统计学者,约翰·普林尔, 你可能会认为他应该会表现不错。
He got 44 for his own area. 他在他自己的区域才得到44分。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Jeremy Paxman — admittedly , after a glass of wine — 36. 杰诺米·帕斯曼,他自己承认,在小酌一杯酒后,得到了36分,
admittedly:adv.公认地;无可否认地;明白地;
Even worse. 还更差。
It just shows you that the numbers can inspire us all. 这仅仅是告诉我们,数字可以启发我们所有人。
They can surprise us all. 也可以让我们所有人感到惊讶。
So very often, we talk about statistics as being the science of uncertainty . 所以,每当我们提到统计, 想到的都是科学与不确定性。
uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠;
My parting thought for today is: actually, statistics is the science of us. 我今天要告诉大家的是: 实际上,统计是与我们生活息息相关的科学,
And that's why we should be fascinated by numbers. 而这也是为什么我们应该要对数字感到有趣的原因。
Thank you very much. 非常感谢各位。
(Applause) （掌声）