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AdamKucharski_2020S-
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| [How can we control the coronavirus pandemic ?] |
【我们该如何控制住 新冠病毒的传播？】 |
| [From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski] |
【传染病学家:亚当 · 库哈尔斯基】 |
| [Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks ?] |
【问题1:我们应该怎样 控制住流行病的蔓延？】 |
| Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control very much on the cases and their contacts . |
对疫情的控制指的是集中精力 控制住确诊病例 和与他们有接触的人。 |
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coronavirus:n.冠状病毒;日冕形病毒; pandemic:adj.(疾病等)全国流行的;普遍的;n.流行性疾病; infectious:adj.传染的;传染性的;易传染的; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病; containment:n.包含;牵制;容量;密闭度;抑制,牵制;牵制[遏制]政策; outbreaks:n.(战争的)爆发;(疾病的)发作;vi.爆发; contacts:v.联系,联络;(contact的第三人称单数)
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| So you're not causing disruption to the wider population, you have a case that comes in, you isolate them, you work out who they've come into contact with, who's potentially these opportunities for exposure and then you can follow up those people, maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens. |
这样就不会引起 人群大规模的混乱, 一发现确诊病例, 就将他们进行隔离, 找出与他们有过接触的人, 存在被感染可能性的人, 然后持续跟进这群人, 或者将他们进行隔离, 确保疫情不会进一步蔓延。 |
| So it's a very focused, targeted method, and for SARS, it worked remarkably well. |
所以这是一种针对性很强的方法, 这种方法对控制非典 （SARS）来说很奏效。 |
| But I think for this infection , because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected , you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk. |
但我认为对于这次的感染, 因为有些病例不会被发现和检测到, 就得注意一大群 存在被感染风险的人。 |
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disruption:n.破坏,毁坏;分裂,瓦解; isolate:v.孤立; n.[微]分离菌; potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; exposure:n.暴露;显露;揭露;面临; quarantine:vt.检疫;隔离;使隔离;n.检疫;隔离;检疫期;封锁;vi.实行隔离; transmission:n.传输;传染;播送;发射;广播;传动装置; remarkably:adv.非常;极为;格外;出乎意料地 infection:n.感染;传染;(身体某部位的)感染;传染病; undetected:adj.未被发现的;未检测到的; capturing:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;(capture的现在分词) chunk:n.大块;矮胖的人或物;
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| If a few slip through the net, potentially, you're going to get an outbreak. |
如果有漏网之鱼, 那么就会面临 疫情爆发的潜在风险。 |
| [Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?] |
【问题2:如果光控制疫情还不够的话, 我们下一步应该做什么？】 |
| In that respect, it would be about massive changes in our social interactions . |
那样的话, 我们的社交方式 需要进行巨大改变。 |
| And so that would require, of the opportunities that could spread the virus so these kind of close contacts, everybody in the population, on average, will be needing to reduce those interactions potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control. |
那包括, 减少所有可能导致 病毒传播的机会, 像是近距离接触, 平均而言,每个人 就得减少大约三分之二 这种近接触的机会 才能有效控制疫情传播。 |
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slip:v.溜;下降;滑落;n.纸条;衬裙; massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; interactions:n.[计]交互,相互作用;相互交流;干扰;(interaction复数) two-thirds:n.三分之二;三分之二的;三分之二地;
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| That might be through working from home, from changing lifestyle and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners. |
可以通过在家办公, 改变生活方式, 不去拥挤的场所与餐厅来实现。 |
| And of course, these measures, things like school closures , and other things that just attempt to reduce the social mixing of a population. |
当然了,像是关闭学校 和其他的措施,只能做到 尽量避免人群密集接触。 |
| [Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?] |
【问题3:我们需要考虑到 哪些可能被传染的风险？】 |
| It's not just whose hand you shake, it's whose hand that person goes on to shake. |
重要的不只是你和哪些人握了手, 还有那些人会和哪些人握手。 |
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closures:[经]停业;封闭; attempt:n.企图,试图;攻击;v.企图,试图;尝试; mixing:n.混合;混频;录音;v.混合,掺和,融合;调配;配制;相容;(mix的现在分词)
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| And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps, that you might think you have low risk and you're in a younger group, but you're often going to be a very short step away from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this. |
我认为我们应该考虑下 这些第二阶段的步骤, 你也许会觉得 你被感染的风险很低, 你比较年轻, 但你通常会离那些一旦得病 就将面临致命风险的人很近。 |
| And I think we really need to be socially minded and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior, but it needs to be to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing. |
正因如此, 我认为我们应具有社会意识, 这将导致我们的行为模式 产生重大变化, 但为了减少 我们可能面临的负面影响, 这些是必须要做到的。 |
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second-degree:adj.二等的;烧伤程度的第二度的; dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
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| [Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?] |
【问题4:我们该和他人保持多远的距离？】 |
| I think it's hard to pin down exactly, but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far -- it's reasonably short distances. |
要想说出一个具体数字 是很困难的, 但我认为大家应记住, 目前并没有足够证据表明 这种包含病毒的气溶胶 能传播很远的距离—— 它理应只能在很短的距离内传播。 |
| I don't think it's the case that you're sitting a few meters away from someone and the virus is somehow going to get across. |
我并不认为 你坐在离另一人几米远的地方 病毒还能穿过这么远的距离。 |
| It's in closer interactions, and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups. |
我们应该注意的是近距离接触, 这是那么多传染案例发生于 就餐场所和 人员密集的团体中的原因。 |
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pin:n.大头针;饰针;旗杆;胸针;v.别上;使不能动弹;按住;钳住; bear in mind:vi.记住;考虑到; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; aerosol:n.[物化]气溶胶;气雾剂;喷雾器;浮质;adj.喷雾的;喷雾器的; reasonably:adv.合理地;相当地;适度地; somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地; occur:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在; tight-knit:adj.亲密的,紧密的;
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| Because if you imagine that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces and onto hands and onto faces, and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about. |
因为可以想像, 在那些地方病毒更容易到达我们 手和脸的表面, 我们更应关注这些情况。 |
| [Question 5: What kind of protective measures should countries put in place?] |
【问题5:世界各国应落实 哪些预防措施？】 |
| I think that's what people are trying to piece together , first in terms of what works. |
我认为大家应首先考虑那些 被证实有效的措施。 |
| It's only really in the last sort of few weeks we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable with this extent of interventions , but of course, not all countries can do what China have done, some of these measures |
我们也是直到前几周 才意识到这种病毒在某种程度的 国家干预下是可控的, 但当然,并不是所有国家 都能做到中国所做的那些, 有些措施 |
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protective:adj.防护的;关切保护的;保护贸易的; piece together:拼凑; controllable:adj.可控制的;可管理的;能操纵的; extent:n.程度;范围;长度; interventions:n.[法]干预,干涉;处置(intervention的复数);
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| incur a huge social, economic , psychological burden on populations. |
会对全国人民施加 巨大的社会,经济, 和心理上的负担。 |
| And of course, there's the time limit . |
当然了, 还要考虑到时间限制。 |
| In China, they've had them in for six weeks, it's tough to maintain that, so we need to think of these tradeoffs of all the things we can ask people to do, what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden. |
中国仅花了 6 周 就控制住了病毒的传播, 要做到这点是很难的, 所以我们应进行权衡, 想想我们能让人民做些什么, 哪些措施能最大程度地减少 施加于人民身上的负担。 |
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incur:vt.招致,引发;蒙受; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; psychological:adj.心理的;心理学的;精神上的; burden:n.负担;责任;船的载货量;v.使负担;烦扰;装货于; time limit:n.时限,期限;极限时限; maintain:v.维持;保持;维修;保养;坚持(意见); tradeoffs:n.权衡;折衷;(公平)交易(等于trade-off);
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| [To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] |
【欲知更多,请访问: 疾病控制和预防咨询中心网站】 |
| [World Health Organization] |
【世界卫生组织网站】 |