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AdamDavidson_2012S-_我们从财政悬崖边学到了什么_
So a friend of mine who's a political scientist , he told me several months ago exactly what this month would be like. 我有个朋友是政治学家, 他几个月前确切地告诉我 本月会演哪出戏。
political scientist:n.政治学家;
He said, you know, there's this fiscal cliff coming, it's going to come at the beginning of 2013. 他说,会有财政悬崖问题降临, 发生在2013年初。
fiscal:adj.会计的,财政的;国库的; cliff:n.悬崖;绝壁; at the beginning of:在…的开始;
Both parties absolutely need to resolve it, but neither party wants to be seen as the first to resolve it. 两党绝对需要解决这个问题, 但是两党都不想做第一个吃螃蟹的人。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; resolve:vt.决定; vi.解决; n.坚决;
Neither party has any incentive to solve it a second before it's due, so he said, December, you're just going to see lots of angry negotiations , negotiations breaking apart, reports of phone calls that aren't going well, people saying nothing's happening at all, and then sometime around Christmas or New Year's, we're going to hear, "Okay, they resolved everything." 两党都没有在问题到期前,解决问题的动力, 他说,在十二月,你会看到 怒气冲冲的协商,协商破裂, 和各种谈判不顺的报导, 人们说什么都没有发生 然后到圣诞结或新年前后, 我们会听说:“Okay,两党解决了所有问题。”
incentive:n.动机;刺激;adj.激励的;刺激的; negotiations:n.谈判(negotiation的复数);磋商;
He told me that a few months ago. He said he's 98 percent positive they're going to resolve it, and I got an email from him today saying, all right, we're basically on track , but now I'm 80 percent positive that they're going to resolve it. 他几个月前告诉我这些。他说,他有98%的信心,两党会解决这个问题。 今天我收到他的一封Email,他说 我们基本步入正轨,但现在他有80%的信心 两党会解决这个问题。
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; basically:adv.主要地,基本上; track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;
And it made me think. I love studying these moments in American history when there was this frenzy of partisan anger, that the economy was on the verge of total collapse . 这促使我思考。我爱研究 美国历史的关键时刻 当有这种狂热的党派愤怒的情况下, 经济面临崩溃边缘的时刻。
frenzy:n.狂暴;狂怒;暴怒;v.使发狂;使狂怒; partisan:adj.党派的;效忠的;偏袒的;盲目推崇的;n.游击队;虔诚信徒;党羽; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; on the verge of:濒临于;接近于; collapse:vi.倒塌;瓦解;暴跌;vt.使倒塌,使崩溃;使萎陷;折叠;n.倒塌;失败;衰竭;
The most famous early battle was Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson over what the dollar would be and how it would be backed up, with Alexander Hamilton 早期最著名的此类论战是亚历山大·汉密尔顿 和托马斯·杰斐逊关于美元地位 以及如何支撑美元地位的争论,
saying, "We need a central bank , the First Bank of the United States, or else the dollar will have no value. 亚历山大·汉密尔顿说:“我们要有中央银行,美利坚第一银行, 否则,美元就没有价值。
central bank:n.中央银行; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
This economy won't work," 这种经济就不会运转,”
and Thomas Jefferson saying, "The people won't trust that. 托马斯·斐逊说:“人们不会信任它的。
They just fought off a king. They're not going to accept some central authority ." 他们刚赶走一个国王。他们不会再接受中央集权了。”
authority:n.权威;权力;当局;
This battle defined the first 150 years of the U.S. economy, and at every moment, different partisans saying, "Oh my God, the economy's about to collapse," 这场论战决定了美国建国头150年的经济发展, 每当,有不同党派的人说: “老天,经济要崩溃了,”
defined:adj.有定义的,确定的; v.使明确; partisans:n.游击队员(partisan的复数形式);
and the rest of us just going about, spending our bucks on whatever it is we wanted to buy. 我们中的其他人就会赶快出去, 花美元购买我们想要的商品。
bucks:n.元;雄鹿;(buck的复数)
To give you a quick primer on where we are, a quick refresher on where we are. 给您一个简明的当前形势图, 快速补习一下当前形势。
primer:n.初级读本;识字课本;原始物; refresher:n.可提神的人或物;补习课程;清凉饮料;增加报酬;adj.专业性复习进修的;
So the fiscal cliff, I was told that that's too partisan a thing to say, although I can't remember which party it's supporting or attacking. 关于财政悬崖这个叫法,有人告诉我 那是党派之争的代名词, 尽管我不记得到底哪派支持,哪派反对。
People say we should call it the fiscal slope , or we should call it an austerity crisis , but then other people say, no, that's even more partisan. 人们说我们应该叫它财政斜坡, 或者我们应该称它为财政紧缩危机, 不过还有人说,这更凸显了党派色彩。
slope:n.斜坡;坡度;坡地;山坡;v.倾斜;有坡度;悄悄地走;潜行; austerity:n.紧缩;朴素;苦行;严厉; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
So I just call it the self-imposed , self-destructive arbitrary deadline about resolving an inevitable problem. 所以我就称它为——咎由自取的,解决一个不可避免的问题的, 武断的期限。
self-imposed:adj.自愿接受的;自己强加的; self-destructive:adj.自毁的;表现自杀欲望的; arbitrary:adj.[数]任意的;武断的;专制的; deadline:n.最后期限;截止日期; resolving:n.分解;解析;v.分辨(resolve的ing形式);分解;决定;解决矛盾; inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
And this is what the inevitable problem looks like. 这就是“不可避免的问题”的图示。
So this is a projection of U.S. debt as a percentage of our overall economy, of GDP. 这就是美国债务占经济总体（GDP）的 百分比。
projection:n.投射;规划;突出;发射;推测; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
The light blue dotted line represents the Congressional Budget Office's best guess of what will happen if Congress really doesn't do anything, and as you can see , sometime around 2027, we reach Greek levels of debt, somewhere around 130 percent of GDP, 浅蓝的虚线代表 国会预算办公室最好的猜想 也就是,如果国会不采取行动的话, 如您所见,到2027年, 我们就会达到希腊的债务水平, 也就是债务占GDP,百分之130,
dotted line:n.虚线;点线; represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) Congressional:adj.国会的;会议的;议会的; Budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的; as you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的;
which tells you that some time in the next 20 years, if Congress does absolutely nothing, we're going to hit a moment where the world's investors, the world's bond buyers , are going to say, 此图说明了未来20年, 如果国会真的不采取任何对策, 我们就会达到一个临界点,全世界的投资家 全世界的债券买家,就会说,
buyers:n.[贸易]买主;买方市场;采购者;购货者(buyer的复数);
'"We don't trust America anymore. We're not going to lend them any money, except at really high interest rates." “我们不信任美国了,我们不会再借给他们钱了, 除非有很高的贷款利率。”
And at that moment our economy collapses . 在那个临界点,我们的经济会崩溃。
collapses:v.(突然)倒塌,坍塌;昏倒;坐下;(collapse的第三人称单数)
But remember, Greece is there today. 不过记住,这是希腊今天的水平。
We're there in 20 years. We have lots and lots of time to avoid that crisis, and the fiscal cliff was just one more attempt at trying to force the two sides to resolve the crisis. 我们还有20年时间呢。我们有大把大把的时间 避免危机发生, 财政悬崖只是逼迫 两党解决危机的再一次尝试。
attempt:n.企图,试图;攻击;v.企图,试图;尝试;
Here's another way to look at exactly the same problem. 此图是从另一个角度解读同样的问题。
The dark blue line is how much the government spends. 深蓝线代表政府的支出。
The light blue line is how much the government gets in. 浅蓝线代表政府的收入。
And as you can see, for most of recent history, except for a brief period, we have consistently spent more than we take in. Thus the national debt . 如您所见,近几十年 除了一个短暂的时期,国家支出 一直高于国家收入。这就是国家债务。
consistently:adv.一贯地;一致地;坚实地; national debt:n.国债;
But as you can also see, projected going forward, the gap widens a bit and raises a bit, and this graph is only through 2021. 如您所见,预计未来 收支鸿沟会更宽更高些, 此图截止到2021年。
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; widens:vt.放宽;vi.变宽;
It gets really, really ugly out towards 2030. 如图所示,到2030年收支差距会非常大。
ugly:adj.丑陋的;邪恶的;令人厌恶的;
And this graph sort of sums up what the problem is. 此图总结了问题的实质。
sums:n.算术题;总数;全部;v.归纳;总计;(sum的第三人称单数和复数)
The Democrats , they say, well, this isn't a big deal . 民主党人会说,这没什么大不了的。
Democrats:n.民主党员(democrat的复数);民主主义者; a big deal:na.要人;重要的事;
We can just raise taxes a bit and close that gap, especially if we raise taxes on the rich. 我们可以增税,来消解这个鸿沟, 特别的要提高富人的税率。
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
The Republicans say, hey, no, no, we've got a better idea. 共和党人会说,不,不,我们有更好的办法。
Republicans:n.共和党,共和党员;(republican的复数形式)
Why don't we lower both lines? 为什么我不同时压缩支出和税率呢？
Why don't we lower government spending and lower government taxes, and then we'll be on an even more favorable long-term deficit trajectory ? 为什么我们不压缩政府支出的同时压缩政府的税率, 那样,我们就可以得到一个更有利的 长期的赤字曲线吗？
favorable:adj.有利的;良好的;赞成的,赞许的;讨人喜欢的; long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; deficit:n.赤字;逆差;亏损;不足额; trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道;
And behind this powerful disagreement between how to close that gap, there's the worst kind of cynical party politics , the worst kind of insider baseball, lobbying , all of that stuff , but there's also this powerfully interesting, respectful disagreement between two fundamentally different economic philosophies . 在关于如何平衡收支的 巨大分歧后面, 有最糟糕的愤世嫉俗的党派政治, 最糟糕的内幕人士,游说,所有人, 不过同样还是有强大的有趣地方, 尊重两种不同经济哲学之间的分歧。 尊重两种不同经济哲学之间的分歧。
cynical:adj.愤世嫉俗的;冷嘲的; party politics:n.政党政治; insider:n.内部的人,会员;熟悉内情者; lobbying:v.游说(从政者或政府);(lobby的现在分词) stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: powerfully:adv.强大地;强烈地;非常; respectful:adj.恭敬的;有礼貌的; fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; philosophies:n.哲学;思想体系;人生哲学;(philosophy的复数)
And I like to think, when I picture how Republicans see the economy, what I picture is just some amazingly well-engineered machine, some perfect machine. 我喜欢思考,当我想象共和党人 如何看待经济,我想到的是 精密运转的机器,完美的机器。
Unfortunately , I picture it made in Germany or Japan, but this amazing machine that's constantly scouring every bit of human endeavor and taking resources , money, labor, capital, machinery , 不幸的是,我构建出了德国或日本的图景, 这个神奇的机器,不断地消磨 每一个人的努力,并攫取资源, 资金,劳动力,资本,机构,
Unfortunately:adv.不幸地; constantly:adv.不断地;时常地; scouring:v.搜寻,搜查;擦净;冲刷成;(scour的现在分词) endeavor:n.v.努力;尽力;试图; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); machinery:n.机械;机器;机构;机械装置;
away from the least productive parts and towards the more productive parts, and while this might cause temporary dislocation , what it does is it builds up the more productive areas 从低产出部分转到高产出部分, 虽然这可能导致暂时的混乱, 它所作的就是构建高产出领域
productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的; temporary:adj.暂时的,临时的;n.临时工,临时雇员; dislocation:n.转位;混乱;[医]脱臼;
and lets the less productive areas fade away and die, and as a result the whole system is so much more efficient , so much richer for everybody. 让低产出领域消亡, 从而使整个系统更有效率, 每个人变得更富有。
fade away:逐渐消失; as a result:结果; efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的;
And this view generally believes that there is a role for government, a small role, to set the rules so people aren't lying and cheating and hurting each other, 这种观点,认为政府要扮演一个角色, 一个小角色,设置规范,这样人们就不会互欺 互骗,互相伤害了。
generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地;
maybe, you know, have a police force and a fire department and an army, but to have a very limited reach into the mechanisms of this machinery. 比如说,可以有一支警察队伍,一个消防部门,一支军队, 不过（这个政府）只能非常有限地 干预经济“机器”的运行。
police force:n.警察部队; fire department:n.消防部门:消防队员:消防队: limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) mechanisms:n.机制;[机]机构(mechanism的复数);机械;[机]机构学;
And when I picture how Democrats and Democratic-leaning economists picture this economy, most Democratic economists are, you know, they're capitalists , they believe, yes, that's a good system a lot of the time. 当我如民主党人和民主党派经济学家一样 构想整个经济, 大多数民主党派经济学家是资本主义者, 他们相信,一个好系统需要时间。
Democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的; capitalists:n.资本家(capitalist的复数);
It's good to let markets move resources to their more productive use. 让市场配置资源到更高产出的部分去。
But that system has tons of problems. 不过这个系统有成堆的问题。
Wealth piles up in the wrong places. 财富积累在错误的地方。
Wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; piles:n.痔疮;痔;
Wealth is ripped away from people who shouldn't be called unproductive . 财富被从不应被称为低产者的人手中夺走。
unproductive:adj.非生产性的;徒劳的;不毛的;不生产的;
That's not going to create an equitable , fair society. 这不会产生出公正公平的社会。
equitable:adj.公平的,公正的;平衡法的;
That machine doesn't care about the environment, about racism , about all these issues that make this life worse for all of us, and so the government does have a role to take resources from more productive uses, or from richer sources, and give them to other sources. 这部经济机器不考虑环境, 种族,等等问题, 使我们活的更差, 所以政府确需扮演一个角色, 从更高产的,或更富有者手里 拿出一部分资源给其他人。
racism:n.种族主义,种族歧视;人种偏见; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数)
And when you think about the economy through these two different lenses , you understand why this crisis is so hard to solve, because the worse the crisis gets, the higher the stakes are, the more each side thinks they know the answer and the other side is just going to ruin everything. 当您从以上两个不同角度考虑问题时, 您就会明白这个危机为什么这么难解决, 因为危机越深,赌注越高, 每当一方人越认为他们知道答案 而另一方人只会破坏。
lenses:n.透镜;镜片;(眼球的)晶状体;(lens的复数) stakes:n.桩; v.以…打赌,拿…冒险; ruin:n.废墟;毁坏;灭亡;v.毁灭;使破产;
And I can get really despairing . I've spent a lot of the last few years really depressed about this, until this year, I learned something that 我深感失望。过去几年我花了很多精力, 真的感到很沮丧, 直到今年,我知道了一些东西
despairing:adj.感到绝望的;表现绝望的;无望的;v.绝望;失望(despair的ing形式); depressed:adj.沮丧的; v.使抑郁; (depress的过去式和过去分词)
I felt really excited about. I feel like it's really good news, and it's so shocking, I don't like saying it, because I think people won't believe me. 让我感到很兴奋。我感到它真的很好 很震撼,我不想说出来,因为我想 人们不会相信我的。
But here's what I learned. 但这就是我学到的。
The American people, taken as a whole , when it comes to these issues, to fiscal issues, are moderate , pragmatic centrists . 作为一个整体,美国人民, 面对这些财政问题时, 美国人民是温和、务实的中间派。
as a whole:总的来说; moderate:v.缓和; adj.适度的; n.持温和观点者(尤指政见); pragmatic:adj.实际的;实用主义的;国事的; centrists:n.中立派议员;中间派议员;
And I know that's hard to believe, that the American people are moderate, pragmatic centrists. 我知道这很难被接受,美国人民 是温和、务实的中间派。
But let me explain what I'm thinking. 不过让我来解释一下我的想法。
When you look at how the federal government spends money, so this is the battle right here, 55 percent, more than half, is on Social Security , 当您看到联邦政府是如何花钱的时候, 这就是症结所在, 55%超过一半的钱花在社会保障领域,
federal:adj.联邦的;同盟的;联邦政府的;联邦制的;adv.联邦政府地; Social Security:n.社会保障金(政府定期向贫穷、失业、患病等人发放);
Medicare , Medicaid , a few other health programs, 20 percent defense, 19 percent discretionary , and six percent interest. 医疗保险和医疗补助,几个其他健康计划, 20%国防,19%自由支配, 6%支付利息。
Medicare:n.(美,加)医疗保险(等于medicare); Medicaid:n.(美)医疗补助计划; discretionary:adj.任意的;自由决定的;
So when we're talking about cutting government spending, this is the pie we're talking about, and Americans overwhelmingly , and it doesn't matter what party they're in, overwhelmingly like that big 55 percent chunk. 所以当我们谈论削减政府支出的时候, 这就是我们所说的蛋糕, 美国人都认为,不管 他是哪个党派的,都认为 55%的部分是好的。
overwhelmingly:adv.压倒性地;不可抵抗地;
They like Social Security. They like Medicare. 他们喜欢社会保障。他们喜欢医疗保险。
They even like Medicaid, even though that goes to the poor and indigent , which you might think would have less support. 甚至喜欢医疗补助,即使用到穷人身上, 可能您原以为没这么多人支持。
indigent:adj.贫困的;贫穷的(副词indigently);
And they do not want it fundamentally touched, although the American people are remarkably comfortable, and Democrats roughly equal to Republicans, with some minor tweaks to make the system more stable . 他们不希望改变它, 美国人民是非常满意的, 民主党人和共和党人一致, 只做些小的调整,使系统更稳定。
remarkably:adv.非常;极为;格外;出乎意料地 roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地; minor:adj.未成年的; n.未成年人; vi.副修; tweaks:拧;扭;微调;苦恼(第三人称单数); stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房;
Social Security is fairly easy to fix. 社会保障是相当容易解决。
fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直;
The rumors of its demise are always greatly exaggerated . 取消社会保障的谣言是被大大夸大了。
rumors:n.谣传,流言(rumor的复数);v.谣传(rumor的第三人称单数); demise:n.死亡,终止;转让;传位;vt.遗赠;禅让; greatly:adv.很,大大地;非常; exaggerated:adj.夸张的,言过其实的;v.夸张,夸大(exaggerate的过去分词和过去式)
So gradually raise Social Security retirement age, maybe only on people not yet born. 逐渐提高社会保障退休年龄, 可能只适用于还没出生的人。
gradually:adv.渐渐地;逐步地; retirement:n.退休;退职;退休年龄;退休生活;
Americans are about 50/50, whether they're Democrats or Republicans. 美国人50对50, 不管他们是民主党人还是共和党人。
Reduce Medicare for very wealthy seniors , seniors who make a lot of money. Don't even eliminate it. Just reduce it. 减少对非常富有老年人的医疗保险 那些有钱的老年人。甚至不取消它。只是减少它。
seniors:n.年长者,老年人;资历较深的人(senior的复数形式); eliminate:v.消除;排除;
People generally are comfortable with it, Democrats and Republicans. 人们通常是满意的,民主党人和共和党人。
Raise medical health care contributions ? 提高医疗保健的出资额？
health care:n.卫生保健; contributions:n.捐款;捐资;定期缴款;贡献;促成作用;(contribution的复数)
Everyone hates that equally, but Republicans and Democrats hate that together. 每个人是同样讨厌它,共和党人 和民主党人则是一起讨厌它。
And so what this tells me is, when you look at the discussion of how to resolve our fiscal problems, we are not a nation that's powerfully divided on the major, major issue. 这告诉我,当你 看到如何解决我们财政问题的讨论时, 这并不是我们国家的主要分歧,
We're comfortable with it needing some tweaks, but we want to keep it. 我们需要的只是微调,我们想保留它。
We're not open to a discussion of eliminating it. 我们不是公开讨论取消它。
eliminating:v.排除;清除;消除;淘汰;(eliminate的现在分词)
Now there is one issue that is hyper-partisan, and where there is one party that is just spend, spend, spend, we don't care, spend some more, and that of course is Republicans when it comes to military defense spending. 有个超党派的问题, 一个党派只是支出,支出,支出, 我们不在意,支出更多 那当然是共和党人 当说到国防支出。
military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
They way outweigh Democrats. 他们远远高于民主党人。
outweigh:vt.比…重(在重量上);比…重要;比…有价值;
The vast majority want to protect military defense spending. 共和党人绝大多数支持国防开支。
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人:
That's 20 percent of the budget, and that presents a more difficult issue. 这占预算的20%, 这表现出更困难的问题。
I should also note that the [discretionary] spending, which is about 19 percent of the budget, that is Democratic and Republican issues, so you do have welfare , food stamps, other programs that tend to be popular among Democrats, 我也要提到自由支出, 大约占预算的19%, 这事民主党人和共和党人的问题, 所以你有福利,食品救济券,和其他项目 趋向于民主党人比较乐于接受,
welfare:n.福祉;(政府给予的)福利;
but you also have the farm bill and all sorts of Department of Interior inducements for oil drilling and other things, which tend to be popular among Republicans. 但你也有农业法案和各类内务部 各种系用于石油钻井和其他东西, 趋向于共和党人比较乐于接受。
Interior:n.内部;内陆;内地;里面;adj.内部的;里面的; inducements:诱因;引诱(inducement的复数);
Now when it comes to taxes, there is more disagreement. 现在,当涉及到税收,有更多的分歧。
That's a more partisan area. 这是一个更有党派之争的区域。
You have Democrats overwhelmingly supportive of raising the income tax on people who make 250,000 dollars a year, 绝大多数民主党人支持 增加年收入25万美元的人的个人所得税,
supportive:adj.支持的;支援的;赞助的; income tax:所得税;
Republicans sort of against it, although if you break it out by income, 共和党人的反对,但如果你打破它的收入
Republicans who make less than 75,000 dollars a year like this idea. 共和党人中,年收入少于7万5千美元的人喜欢这个主意。
So basically Republicans who make more than 250,000 dollars a year don't want to be taxed. 所以基本上,共和党人中年收入超过25万美元的人不想多课税。
Raising taxes on investment income, you also see about two thirds of Democrats but only one third of Republicans are comfortable with that idea. 增加投资收入税率,你也会看到 三分之二的民主党人支持,而只有 三分之一的共和党人支持。
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁;
This brings up a really important point, which is that we tend in this country to talk about Democrats and Republicans and think there's this little group over there called independents that's, what, two percent? 这带来了一个真正重要的问题, 我们倾向于在这个国家谈论民主党人 和共和党人,还有一小部分 独立派,大约2%？
independents:n.独立派;独立石油公司;独立联盟;
If you add Democrats, you add Republicans, you've got the American people. 如果你或者算上民主党人,算上共和党人, 你就会得到几乎所有美国人。
But that is not the case at all. 但这并不是这样。
And it has not been the case for most of modern American history. 而且它不是大多数现代美国史的情况。
Roughly a third of Americans say that they are Democrats. 大约三分之一的美国人说自己是民主党人。
Around a quarter say that they are Republicans. 大约四分之一的人说自己是共和党人。
A tiny little sliver call themselves libertarians , or socialists , or some other small third party, and the largest block, 40 percent, say they're independents. 一小部分称自己为自由主义者,或社会主义者, 或者其他小的党派, 大约有40%说他们是独立派。
libertarians:adj.自由的;自由论者的;持自由论的;n.自由意志主义者;行动自由论者; socialists:n.社会主义者;社会党党员(socialist的复数)
So most Americans are not partisan, and most of the people in the independent camp fall somewhere in between, so even though we have tremendous overlap between the views on these fiscal issues of Democrats and Republicans, we have even more overlap when you add in the independents. 所以绝大多数美国人是没有派性的, 绝大所数人属于独立派阵营 介于两党之间,即使我们 民主共和两党之间有很多 重叠的地方, 考虑到独立派,我们会有更多的重叠的地方。
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; overlap:n.重叠;重复;v.部分重叠;与…同时发生;
Now we get to fight about all sorts of other issues. 现在我们争论其他问题。
We get to hate each other on gun control and abortion and the environment, but on these fiscal issues, these important fiscal issues, we just are not anywhere nearly as divided as people say. 在控枪问题堕胎问题和环境问题上 我们互相讨厌, 但是有关财政问题,这类重要的财政问题, 我们并不如人所说的那样分派别。
gun control:n.枪支管制(法); abortion:n.流产,小产;流产的胎儿;(计划等)失败,夭折;
And in fact, there's this other group of people who are not as divided as people might think, and that group is economists. 事实上,有一群人 并不如人们所想的那样分派性, 这群人就是经济学家。
I talk to a lot of economists, and back in the '70s and '80s it was ugly being an economist. 我和很多经济学家谈过话,在70年代 和80年代,作为经济学家不是好事。
You were in what they called the saltwater camp, meaning Harvard , Princeton , MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, or you were in the freshwater camp, University of Chicago, 要么你是在他们所谓的海水阵营, 这意味着哈佛大学,普林斯顿大学,麻省理工学院,斯坦福大学,伯克利分校, 要么你在淡水阵营,芝加哥大学,
saltwater:adj.盐水的;海产的; Harvard:n.哈佛大学;哈佛大学学生; Princeton:n.普林斯顿(美国新泽西州中部的自治市镇); freshwater:adj.淡水的;无经验的;n.淡水;内河;湖水;
University of Rochester . 罗切斯特大学。
Rochester:n.罗契斯特市(美国明尼苏达州一城市);
You were a free market capitalist economist or you were a Keynesian liberal economist, and these people didn't go to each other's weddings, they snubbed each other at conferences . 要么你是一个自由市场的资本主义经济学家 要么你是凯恩斯主义的自由派经济学家, 这些人不去参加对方的婚礼, 在会议上互相冷落对方。
free market:自由市场; Keynesian:adj.凯恩斯理论的;符合凯恩斯理论的;n.凯恩斯主义者; liberal:adj.宽宏大度的; n.理解且尊重他人意见的人; snubbed:v.冷落;拒不接受;抵制;(snub的过去分词和过去式) conferences:n.会议(conference的复数形式);
It's still ugly to this day , but in my experience, it is really, really hard to find an economist under 40 who still has that kind of way of seeing the world. 现如今,它仍然不好的,但以我的经验, 这是真的,真的很难找到40岁以下的经济学家 仍然以这种方式看世界。
to this day:至今;
The vast majority of economists -- it is so uncool to call yourself an ideologue of either camp. 绝大多数经济学家 - 土气的 称自己为不属于两个阵营的理论家。
uncool:adj.不时髦的;不帅的;不潇洒的;不"酷"的 ideologue:n.思想家,理论家,空想家;
The phrase that you want, if you're a graduate student or a postdoc or you're a professor, a 38-year-old economics professor, is, "I'm an empiricist . 你想的头衔是,如果你是一个研究生 或博士后,或者你是一个教授, 一个38岁的经济学教授,是的,“我是一个经验主义者。
postdoc:adj.博士后(等于postdoctoral); empiricist:n.经验主义者;使用观察实验法的人;庸医;
I go by the data." 我靠数据分析问题。”
And the data is very clear. 数据是非常明确的。
None of these major theories have been completely successful. 这两个学派理论都没有取得完全胜利
The 20th century, the last hundred years, is riddled with disastrous examples of times that one school or the other tried to explain the past or predict the future and just did an awful, awful job, so the economics profession has acquired some degree of modesty . 20世纪,过去这一百年, 充满了灾难性的例子的时候, 有一所学校或其他学校试图解释 过去或预测未来, 只是做了一个可怕的工作, 所以经济学界已经变得很谦逊了。
riddled:adj.布满的;遍布的;到处是…的;v.使布满窟窿;(riddle的过去分词和过去式) disastrous:adj.灾难性的;损失惨重的;悲伤的; predict:v.预报;预言;预告; profession:n.行业,职业;业内人士;同行; acquired:adj.习得的; v.获得; (acquire的过去分词和过去式) modesty:n.谦逊;质朴;稳重;
They still are an awfully arrogant group of people, I will assure you, but they're now arrogant about their impartiality , and they, too, see a tremendous range of potential outcomes . 他们仍然是一群非常傲慢的人,我向你们保证, 但他们现在傲慢显示在他们的公正性, 他们也看到了巨大的潜在结果。
awfully:adv.非常;极其; arrogant:adj.自大的,傲慢的; assure:vt.保证;担保;使确信;弄清楚; impartiality:n.公正,公平;不偏不倚; potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数)
And this nonpartisanship is something that exists, that has existed in secret in America for years and years and years. 而这个无党派存在的东西, 在美国秘密已经存在多年了。 在美国秘密已经存在多年了。
I've spent a lot of the fall talking to the three major organizations that survey American political attitudes : 我花很大精力对三个主要组织对话 调查美国人的政治态度:
organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构; survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览;vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰;vi.测量土地; attitudes:n.态度,看法(attitude复数);
Pew Research, the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center, and the most important but the least known is the American National Election Studies group that is the world's longest, most respected poll of political attitudes. 皮尤研究, 芝加哥大学全国民意研究中心, 以及最重要的,但最不为人所知的 是美国的全国选举研究组, 是世界上最悠久,最受人尊敬的政治态度调查。
poll:n.投票; v.获得(票数); adj.当事人一方作成的;
They've been doing it since 1948, and what they show consistently throughout is that it's almost impossible to find Americans who are consistent ideologically , who consistently support, "No we mustn't tax, and we must limit the size of government," 他们从1948年就开始了这项工作, 他们始终表明的是, 它几乎是不可能的找到 美国人思想是一致性, 一贯支持,“不,我们不必加税, 我们必须限制政府的规模”
throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及; ideologically:adv.思想上;意识形态上;
or, "No, we must encourage government to play a larger role in redistribution and correcting the ills of capitalism ." 或“不,我们必须鼓励政府再分配中发挥更大的作用 来纠正资本主义的弊病。“
redistribution:n.[经]重新分配; capitalism:n.资本主义;
Those groups are very, very small. 这些人群都非常非常小。
The vast majority of people, they pick and choose , they see compromise and they change over time when they hear a better argument or a worse argument. 绝大多数人,他们选择 他们妥协和随时间变化改主意 尤其是他们听到更好的论点或更糟糕的论点。
pick and choose:挑挑拣拣; compromise:n.妥协;折中;互让;和解;v.妥协;违背(原则);达不到(标准);使陷入危险;
And that part of it has not changed. 这部分没有改变。
What has changed is how people respond to vague questions. 改变的是人们如何应对模糊的问题。
respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和; vague:adj.模糊的;含糊的;不明确的;暧昧的;
If you ask people vague questions, like, "Do you think there should be more government or less government?" 如果你问人们模糊的问题,比如, “你认为更多政府参与还是更少政府参与？”
'"Do you think government should" ?? especially if you use loaded language -- "Do you think the government should provide handouts ?" “你认为政府应该...” 特别是如果你使用加载的语言 “你认为政府应该提供施舍吗？”
handouts:n.讲义;宣传册子,宣传品(handout的复数形式);
Or, "Do you think the government should redistribute ?" 或者“你认为政府应该重新分配吗？”
redistribute:vt.重新分配;再区分;
Then you can see radical partisan change. 然后你可以看到激进党派变化。
radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的;
But when you get specific , when you actually ask about the actual taxing and spending issues under consideration , people are remarkably centrist, they're remarkably open to compromise. 但是当你特指某事,当你确切的 问到某项税收或支出问题时, 人们就变得中立, 他们非常愿意妥协。
specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; under consideration:在考虑之中的;
So what we have, then, when you think about the fiscal cliff, don't think of it as the American people fundamentally can't stand each other on these issues and that we must be ripped apart into two separate warring nations. 因此,我们有的,那么,当你觉得对财政的悬崖, 不认为美国人民从根本上 不能站在对方立场上看问题, 我们必须把美国撕成 两个独立的论战的国家。
Think of it as a tiny, tiny number of ancient economists and misrepresentative ideologues have captured the process . 把它看成是一个很小,很小的数目老经济学家 和不具代表性的理论家已掌控了过程。
misrepresentative:adj.不如实表达的;歪曲的;给人以假象的; ideologues:n.思想家,理论家,空想家; captured:adj.捕获的;被俘的;v.捕获;占领;引起;(capture的过去式和过去分词) process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
And they've captured the process through familiar ways, through a primary system which encourages that small group of people's voices, because that small group of people, the people who answer all yeses or all noes on those ideological questions, 他们已经掌控了这个过程,通过熟悉的方式 通过一个主要系统鼓励 一小群人发出声音, 因为这一小群人, 这些人回答,是或否 在那些意识型态问题,
familiar:adj.熟悉的;常见的;亲近的;n.常客;密友; yeses:adv.是,是的;n.是(表示肯定);
they might be small but every one of them has a blog , every one of them has been on Fox or MSNBC in the last week. 他们可能人数少,但是他们都有博客, 每个人上个星期在福克斯或微软全国广播公司上露脸。
blog:n.博客;部落格;网络日志;
Every one of them becomes a louder and louder voice, but they don't represent us. 他们中的每一个人都发出了更大的声音 但是他们不代表我们。
They don't represent what our views are. 他们不代表我们的视角。
And that gets me back to the dollar, and it gets me back to reminding myself that we know this experience. 这使我回到美元, 这使我提醒自己, 我们知道这个体验。
reminding:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的现在分词)
We know what it's like to have these people on TV, in Congress, yelling about how the end of the world is coming if we don't adopt their view completely, because it's happened about the dollar ever since there's been a dollar. 我们知道它像什么 让这些人上电视,去国会, 叫嚣,世界末日会来临, 如果我们不采纳他们的观点, 因为它发生的美元上 自从有美元起就这样。
adopt:v.采取;接受;收养;正式通过;
We had the battle between Jefferson and Hamilton. 我们有杰斐逊和汉密尔顿的论战。
In 1913, we had this ugly battle over the Federal Reserve , when it was created, with vicious , angry arguments over how it would be constituted , and a general agreement that the way it was constituted was the worst possible compromise, 在1913年,关于美联储的论战 当美联储建立的时候,充满了恶毒和愤怒的争论 关于美联储如何构成, 和一般的协议关于是如何构成 是最坏的妥协,
Reserve:n.储备,储存; vt.储备; vi.预订; vicious:adj.恶毒的;恶意的;堕落的;有错误的;品性不端的;剧烈的; constituted:vt.组成,构成;建立;任命;
a compromise guaranteed to destroy this valuable thing, this dollar, but then everyone agreeing, okay, so long as we're on the gold standard , it should be okay. 一个妥协保证摧毁这宝贵的东西, 美元,但最后每人同意了,Okay, 只要我们采用金本位制,它应该是好的。
guaranteed:adj.必然的; v.保证; valuable:adj.有价值的;贵重的;可估价的;n.贵重物品; so long as:adv.只要; gold standard:n.金本位制;黄金标准;典范;
The Fed can't mess it up so badly. 美联储不能搞的如此糟糕。
mess:n.混乱;餐厅;杂乱;肮脏;v.使不整洁;弄脏;弄乱;随地便溺;
But then we got off the gold standard for individuals during the Depression and we got off the gold standard as a source of international currency coordination during Richard Nixon's presidency . 但是我们取消了个人的金本位制, 在大萧条中, 尼克松时代我们取消了国际货币协调中 金本位制。
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数); Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁; currency:n.货币;通货; coordination:n.协调,调和;对等,同等; presidency:n.总统(或董事长,会长,大学校长等)的职位(任期);管辖;支配;
Each of those times, we were on the verge of complete collapse. 上述时刻,我们都处在崩溃边缘。
And nothing happened at all. 但最终也没发生崩溃。
Throughout it all, the dollar has been one of the most long-standing , stable, reasonable currencies , and we all use it every single day, no matter what the people screaming about tell us, no matter how scared we're supposed to be. 贯穿始终,美元 都是最长存的, 稳定的,合理的货币, 我们每天都会使用, 不管什么人尖叫告诉我们, 不管我们多么害怕,我们还在使用美元。
long-standing:adj.长期存在的;存在已久的; reasonable:adj.合理的,公道的;通情达理的; currencies:n.货币;货币流通(currency的复数); no matter what:不管什么…; supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式)
And this long-term fiscal picture that we're in right now, 我们正在经历的,这个长期财政图景
I think what is most maddening about it is, if Congress were simply able to show not that they agree with each other, not that they're able to come up with the best possible compromise, but that they are able to just begin the process towards compromise, we all instantly are better off. 我认为什么是最令人抓狂的是, 如果国会不只是能 显示他们同意与对方, 而不是他们能够拿出最好的妥协, 但他们的过程才刚刚开始 的妥协,大家都立刻好起来的。
maddening:adj.令人发狂的;使人恼火的;v.发狂(madden的现在分词); come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
The fear is that the world is watching. 可怕的是世界正在关注。
The fear is that the longer we delay any solution , the more the world will look to the U.S. 可怕的越是我们拖延解决方案 世界越认为美国
solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
not as the bedrock of stability in the global economy, but as a place that can't resolve its own fights, and the longer we put that off, the more we make the world nervous, the higher interest rates are going to be, the quicker we're going to have to face a day of horrible calamity . 不是全球经济稳定的基石, 但作为一个不能解决自己的论战的地方, 我们拖得越久,我们越让世界担心 就会有更高的贷款利率, 越快的面对 灾难性的那天。
bedrock:n.[地质]基岩;根底;基本原理; stability:n.稳定性;坚定,恒心; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; horrible:可怕的,极讨厌的, calamity:n.灾难;不幸事件;
And so just the act of compromise itself, and sustained , real compromise, would give us even more time, would allow both sides even longer to spread out the pain and reach even more compromise down the road . 所以就妥协本身的行为, 和持续的、真正的妥协, 将给我们争取更多时间, 使得双方更长时间分担痛苦, 一段时间后达成更多的妥协。
sustained:adj.持续的; v.维持; (sustain的过去分词和过去式) spread out:冒火;喷火; down the road:只要沿着这条路;将来;在路上;
So I'm in the media . I feel like my job to make this happen is to help foster the things that seem to lead to compromise, to not talk about this in those vague and scary terms that do polarize us, but to just talk about it like what it is, not an existential crisis, 所以我上媒体。我感觉我的工作就是 帮助培养导致妥协的东西, 不要讲那些模糊的、吓人的术语 这会分化我们, 只是谈财政悬崖是什么, 不是一个生存危机,
media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; foster:vt.培养;养育,抚育;抱(希望等);adj.收养的,养育的; polarize:vt.(使)极化;(使)偏振;(使)两极分化;vi.极化;偏振;两极分化; existential:adj.存在主义的;有关存在的;存在判断的;
not some battle between two fundamentally different religious views, but a math problem, a really solvable math problem, one where we're not all going to get what we want and one where, you know, there's going to be a little pain to spread around. 不是两种不同宗教的战争, 而只是一个数学问题,一个可解的数学问题, 是我们不能得到所有我们想要的东西 是需要传播有些痛苦的东西。
religious:adj.宗教的;虔诚的;严谨的;修道的;n.修道士;尼姑; solvable:adj.可以解决的;可以解的;可溶的;
But the more we address it as a practical concern , the sooner we can resolve it, and the more time we have to resolve it, paradoxically . 不过,我们越是把它强调为现实关切, 我们就越快能解决它, 同时,为我们解决它争取更多时间。
practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课; concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; paradoxically:adv.自相矛盾地;似非而是地;反常地;
Thank you. (Applause) 谢谢。（掌声）